cj
10-29-2019, 10:15 AM
Once again I will be starting Predict the Score threads for anyone that gives a crap. The guidelines are below. If you have any questions yell at Figgie as he is the one doing the calculations.
Each game will have a Predict the Score thread. Anyone may start the thread but to make searching easier, please follow the format described here:
* The title should say "Predict the Score: OPPONENT_NAME (QUALIFIER)". The qualifier is optional, but is useful to distinguish between home/away games or between regular season and postseason games. For example, "Predict the Score: Xavier (http://www.udpride.com/forums/autolink.php?id=8&forumid=3&script=showpost) (home)" or "Predict the Score: Temple (http://www.udpride.com/forums/autolink.php?id=9&forumid=3&script=showpost) (A-10 tourney)".
* Use the green arrow as the icon for the message, just like the one used for the rules here.
2. To play, post your prediction of the score of a UD game in the appropriate thread before tipoff.
3. Your prediction will be given a Prediction Score based on the result of the game. A lower Prediction Score is better. It is calculated based on the formula below in rule #9. Basically, you get a point for each point off you are from each team's score, two points for each point off you are from the spread, and 1,000 points for getting the winner wrong. So if you miss the winner you will lose (unless everyone else also missed the winner), and getting the spread right is more important than getting the teams' scores right.
4. The ten lowest Prediction Scores for each game earn Season Points, according to the following schedule:
1st place: 50
2nd place: 30
3rd place: 20
4th place: 14
5th place: 12
6th place: 10
7th place: 8
8th place: 6
9th place: 4
10th place: 2
5. For ties, average the Season Points of the various positions involved in the tie. Fractions are rounded up.
6. Scores accumulate until the season is over. Whoever has the most Season Points at the end wins.
7. A Prediction Score of zero is very rare and is to be admired. There are typically only one or two scores of zero per season. However, they earn no bonus as this is a friendly contest.
8. THE PREDICTION SCORE FORMULA:
PREDICTION_SCORE =
ABS(Pred_UD - Act_UD) + ABS(Pred_Opp - Act_Opp) + 2 * ABS(Pred_Spread - Act_Spread) + 1,000 * (Wrong_Winner)
Definitions:
ABS: Absolute value function
Pred_UD, Pred_Opp, Pred_Spread: Predicted UD score, Opponent score, and Spread, respectively
Act_UD, Act_Opp, Act_Spread: Actual UD score, Opponent score, and Spread, respectively
Wrong_Winner: Equals 1 if the wrong winner was predicted, equals 0 otherwise
Each game will have a Predict the Score thread. Anyone may start the thread but to make searching easier, please follow the format described here:
* The title should say "Predict the Score: OPPONENT_NAME (QUALIFIER)". The qualifier is optional, but is useful to distinguish between home/away games or between regular season and postseason games. For example, "Predict the Score: Xavier (http://www.udpride.com/forums/autolink.php?id=8&forumid=3&script=showpost) (home)" or "Predict the Score: Temple (http://www.udpride.com/forums/autolink.php?id=9&forumid=3&script=showpost) (A-10 tourney)".
* Use the green arrow as the icon for the message, just like the one used for the rules here.
2. To play, post your prediction of the score of a UD game in the appropriate thread before tipoff.
3. Your prediction will be given a Prediction Score based on the result of the game. A lower Prediction Score is better. It is calculated based on the formula below in rule #9. Basically, you get a point for each point off you are from each team's score, two points for each point off you are from the spread, and 1,000 points for getting the winner wrong. So if you miss the winner you will lose (unless everyone else also missed the winner), and getting the spread right is more important than getting the teams' scores right.
4. The ten lowest Prediction Scores for each game earn Season Points, according to the following schedule:
1st place: 50
2nd place: 30
3rd place: 20
4th place: 14
5th place: 12
6th place: 10
7th place: 8
8th place: 6
9th place: 4
10th place: 2
5. For ties, average the Season Points of the various positions involved in the tie. Fractions are rounded up.
6. Scores accumulate until the season is over. Whoever has the most Season Points at the end wins.
7. A Prediction Score of zero is very rare and is to be admired. There are typically only one or two scores of zero per season. However, they earn no bonus as this is a friendly contest.
8. THE PREDICTION SCORE FORMULA:
PREDICTION_SCORE =
ABS(Pred_UD - Act_UD) + ABS(Pred_Opp - Act_Opp) + 2 * ABS(Pred_Spread - Act_Spread) + 1,000 * (Wrong_Winner)
Definitions:
ABS: Absolute value function
Pred_UD, Pred_Opp, Pred_Spread: Predicted UD score, Opponent score, and Spread, respectively
Act_UD, Act_Opp, Act_Spread: Actual UD score, Opponent score, and Spread, respectively
Wrong_Winner: Equals 1 if the wrong winner was predicted, equals 0 otherwise