Fri Win=Dancing???

[BeckysTXA]

I actually think we have a real shot at making the NCAAs??? First and foremost we have to win this Friday and the bigger the better.

I did a quick run down of the automatic conference championship bids and then looked at RPI rankings to figure out who we are competing against for an at-large bid. Anyone ranked above us I calculated got a bid. I think there are 31 conferences -- if I'm wrong on that you have to subtrack the additional conference champs from my net out number of 6.

So all the conference champs plus the teams who have RPIs higher than Dayton netted out 6 open slots. (Please note not all conf tourney champs have been crowned -- so open slots can be eaten up if there are upsets.)

But right now it would come down to the following:

#42 Dayton (21-11, 2nd school from A-10, second place in conf Tourney)

#44 LSU (even tho we have a better RPI - I counted them in becasue I think they will take 2 from the Southeastern Conference - LSU and #11 Florida. So LSU isn't competing for one of the 6 slots -- just listed them because their RPI is lower than ours.)

#45 Miami, OH (18-10, finished 3rd in conf tourney, would be 3rd school from Mid America conference - I think they pick 2 from A-10 before a 3rd from this conference. Also, we BEAT OHIO on Friday - the Mid Am champ -- and I think for sure they take Dayton before Miami, OH and maybe even ahead of #40 W Michigan who finished 2nd in their conf tourney. That would give us a 7th slot to fill. Friday is a MUST WIN.)

#46 Wisc (17-13, would be 7th school from Big Ten - maybe)

#47 Arizonia State (13-16, would be 7th school from Pac 10 - probably not - losing record. I don't think it hurts us too much they beat us in week 1 of the season.)

#48 Creighton (18-8, but seeded 2nd in their conf tourney even tho U of Northern Iowa #38 has higher RPI. Wichita State is #19. I think they take 2 from this conference and then pick up Dayton before adding a third.)

#49 Baylor (18-11, would be 5th Big 12 - maybe)

#51 Cal Poly (16-11 - 2nd Big West school - probably. Long Beach State #24 is the first.)

#56 St John's (22-9. This conference "screwed up" and let Louisville win their Tourney. So They are in plus Cincy is 25-6 and has an RPI of #33. They will get an at large bid (already counted because they are ahead of Dayton. So does St John become the 3rd Big East school ahead of Dayton as the A-10's 2nd -- probably not.)

Other mid-major conferences who have teams with higher RPIs than Dayton, but who may have teams fall out of the at-large bids are as follows:

Conf USA - #12 Tulane - #25 Rice - #30 UAB - will they take 3 before 2 A-10?

Mo Valley - #19 Wichita State - # 38 UNI - #48 Creighton

West Coast - #20 San Diego - # 26 Santa Clara - #27 Pepperdine - #41 San Francisco - will they take 4 before 2 from A-10?

Sun Belt - #21 FL Int'l - #23 Middle TN - #37 West KY

ACC - #28 Clemson - # 29 Duke - #43 NC - I counted NC in - I think they take 3 from the ACC before picking up 2nd from A-10.

Mid American - #36 Ohio - #40 W. Michigan - #45 Miami OH - we beat Ohio and I think we even jump ahead of W Michigan.

Big East - Louisville(auto-bid) - #33 Cincy - #56 St Johns - do they pick up 2nd A-10 before including a 3rd Big East - I say yes.

Big West - #24 Long Beach State - # 51 Cal Poly - right or wrong, I think Cal Poly gets in a head of us. West-coast usually wins bid if it's close.

All that said... we win Friday and I think we are in.

[ud69]

To qualify for an at-large - team record must be over 50%. Arizona State is out.

Nobody with a better RPI than Dayton has a non-winning record. Indiana at 16-14 is close. They may not get in. The Dayton RPI (and all of the others) of 42 was based on a 19-9 record for games through 11/9. One would expect there has been some movement since then. I think our RPI as of today is probably just under 40. If so - I think a win over the Bobcats might do it. Most likely, this is our play-in game for the big dance.

[UDBrian]

I hope you are right and won't post any of my concerns :)