A10 possibly a one bid league?
 

Looking at the RPI's and other stats, if Rhody wins the A10 Championship, it's quite possible we are a one bid league. We are 10th in RPI as a league. The A10 has scheduled 26 teams in the top 25 ratings, and has zero scalps to show for it. Does not have a good feel to it.

Saint Bonaventure is on the wrong side of the bubble right now but there’s time. They get Rhode Island at home Friday. A win for the Bonnies against the rams would be huge.
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There is always a chance that the Rams could have an off day in the tournament and get beat by a hot-shooting team. Then the A-10 will have two teams at the dance.

Most unfortunately EC Matthews was injured last night. Will find out more about his prognosis today.
http://www.providencejournal.com/spo...hammer-spiders

I think the Bonnies will pull out an at large. I think the A10 could still get 3 teams in, URI, SBU, and a dark horse. If Dance Card only has SBU 1 spot out, then they can get it done.

The road win last night was quite helpful. Their RPI was not really moving during that winning stretch, just hovering at 50. After last night they are now 42. With 3 top-50 wins, Friday night can't really hurt them, but it sure as hell could help them. Even with a loss their RPI will probably improve and SOS will get a nice bump. Avoid bad losses from here on out and they are probably in. Throw in a non-URI/SBU tournament winner and you've got 3 bids.

To me, one seems about as unlikely as three. Odds are we'll get two.

URI is close to a lock, if not already there.
SBU is the only team with the potential to play themselves into an at large.

I think there's a scenario where A10 gets 3, albeit highly unlikely. It would mean...
1) URI continuing to play well, but not win the A10 tournament. RPI forecast shows even if they lose out, their RPI will be in the 20s -- so a virtual lock at this point.
2) It would also mean SBU finishes with only 1 (maybe 2) more losses in regular season, coupled with a win this Friday against URI. Then they need 2 wins in tournament. That would put their RPI around 30 with respectable numbers (forecasting) of 2-2 vs top 25, 5-3 vs top 50 and 9-4 vs top 100 with no losses over 185.
3) If a team gets hot in A10 tourney and wins it, coupled with URI and SBU finishing strong...3 will get in. But reality is URI hasn't lost since 12/6 and SBU has won 7 straight...so who would beat them?

EDIT: I also think SBU has the Cinderella factor going for them with an at large. Jay Adams has a little Steph Curry in him, and for all those too naive to think CBS and the NCAA wouldn't want them in are wrong. Big ratings = big money. I can already see it "#11SBU - the third smallest school in all of Div 1 lead by Jay Adams, scoring 34 knocking off #6 West Virginia"

Also, as much as everyone will say it isn't the case, I have to believe SBU gets the benefit of the doubt after being wrong a couple of years ago.

I can see if St. Bonnie's finishes strong losing only 1 more reg season game & makes the A10 tourney final but losing to a Davidson or even UD-type (in my dreams), they could make the NCAA. That could provide 3 A10 teams in the dance.

I agree with the above about the potential "wow" factor St. Bonnie's brings to the NCAA tourney this year, along with added benefit-of-the-doubt for past wrongs, plus the win over Syracuse will go a long way for them... but they aren't there yet.

Regardless of what happens, that potential third team plays in Dayton. If somehow, that team is miraculously us, I wonder what the selection committee would do?
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The potential 3rd team could only come from winning the A10 tourney. No way they would be put in Dayton. Those will all be At Large 11 or 12 seeds just like every year.

In my view,if a dark horse wins the A-10 (not URI or SBU) then SBU is NIT bound. Hard to see three from a weak A-10. But time will tell. Agree that an SBU win Friday strengthens their case.

They also put four of the lowest ranked conference winners there too, in addition to the four 11 and 12 seeds.

I don't believe that the committee is ever motivated by ratings to get teams in the tournament. They are certainly biased AGAINST non-Power 5 if anything.

But even if they were, I find it hard to buy any argument that says that St. Bonaventure would have a ratings argument in their favor.

Sure, in theory Fordham could win the A10 tournament and thus be in line for a 16 seed. However a 3rd team from the A10 isn't going to be a 16 seed and get shipped off to Dayton. If UD/VCU/Davidson/Richmond pulls the shocker they will end up on the 13/14 line. Nobody is getting sent to Dayton unless SBU ends up as one of the last At Large's in.

I agree, outside of Fordham I doubt an A10 team would end up there, I was just pointing out that its not just 11 and 12 seeds that go to Dayton.

While I share your skepticism given the committee's recent history with the Bonnies, SBU controls their destiny and can make a "snub" impossible. For example a sub-30 is a virtual guaranteed bid, a sub-20 RPI is an actual guarantee.

In the end, 1 or 3 have close to the same probability, it's that close. The Selection Committee is not into pity parties for mid-majors.

I wanted to expound on this a bit more. I believe (could be wrong), that there have only been two teams left out of the modern version of the tournament with an RPI below 30. That would be the Bonnies in 2016 and Missouri State in 2006. The Missouri State one is quite the anomaly, as there have been a handful of teams with an RPI of around 30 to be left out, but nothing quite so drastic as 21.

Injury accommodation?
 

It will be interesting to see if St. Bona gets a pass for their home opening loss to Niagra. Adams was hurt and, I think, one other started didn't play that game as well.

Fragile
 

For all his talent, that kid is fragile.

not going to hear anything bad, he will be day to day even if he has a torn ACL

I agree with the posts about the committee giving SBU preferential treatment this year due to the snub a few years ago.

What was the reason given that year? Bad top 50 record?

It was 2 years ago, the 2015-2016 season. The rpi numbers vary by site.

Realtimerpi and collegerpi.com had them at #30 after the regular season, with a sos of 81.

Warren Nolan had them at #46 overall? with a sos of 83.

http://realtimerpi.com/2015-2016/rpi_Men.html


http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...nt-Bonaventure


They appear to have had too many 100+, 3, and 200+, 1, losses. That is the only significant blemish that I see. The top 50 and top 100 and road records looked acceptable.

That WN site is nice, it has all the archived Nitty Gritty reports.

SBU's sos was a little weak at 81 or 83 also.

They were probably 1 win away. If they did not have that 1 200+ loss, then I bet they would have made it in.

One bid, no mas.

Rhode Island a 1 point favorite tonight at St. Bonaventure. Game SBU has to win - unless it plans on winning the A10 tournament.

The latest Dance Card came out yesterday. SBU is 1 spot, #46, above the last team in, #47.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Lunardi has the Bonnies as the last team as of today

Top two teams in the league tied at 20 at the under eight in the first half.
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Great game between RI and SBU. Bonnies win. SBU certainly looks like an NCAA tournament team to me. Hard to stomach having ESPN list Dayton as a bad loss on St. Bonaventure's resume though. Ouch!

Definitely great game. Maybe it needs a good showing in the A10 tournament, but think SBU deserves a bid on current record if no stumbles rest of way. Third straight 20 win season. "Bad loss" hurts deeply. Although there is a good feeling when knocking off a top team (Syracuse etc.) hopefully we are not on our way to joining the "bad loss list" on a recurring basis.

As much as I can't stand Hurley and his whining, for the league's sake I hope Rhode Island and SBU do well and cause some trouble.

ESPN was reaching when listing UD as a "bad loss". If at Dayton is your bad loss, the your profile is looking pretty spiffy. If Bonnies finish season well, they are in.

A10 gets three in if both Rhody and Bonnaventure finish strong; as I predict they both go down in A10 tournament.

If the conference gets three bids, in what is obviously the worst year in conference history, that will be so sweet, and conference reputation saving moment.

They listed Davidson as a bad loss, too, which is more absurd.

www.bracketmatrix.com moves SBU up to an 11 seed.

A10 getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment

Bona in the play in game against Baylor per Joey Brackets.
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OMG, SBU moves up 13 spots, from #46 to #33, on the dance card, from last Thursday to Monday.

They seem to be in control of their own destiny at this point. They are now nowhere near the cut line.

The A10 is definitely getting at least 2 teams in the NCAAT, as long as SBU does not implode.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I am sticking with my prediction of A10 getting 3 NCAA bids, per the upsets of both Rhody and bonnies in A10 tournament. However the UD win over SLU all but made sure that Rhody and SBU will be on opposite sides of bracket; that does lessen the likelihood that neither wins the A10 tourney, but I still see the field as wild and crazy...get ready for serious March Madness in DC...A10 style.

SBU gets downgraded 6 spots on the dance card to #39, despite defeating Duquesne.

The dc is cruel, she giveth, and she taketh away.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

If they do indeed get into the Big Dance, do not overlook them as a spoiler. If Jalen Adams and Matt Mobley are on their game, they could find their way deep into the tournament. That is one of the best guard tandems in basketball.

Davidson defeats URI at Davidson and takes SBU to triple OT at SBU before falling. It does not seem far fetched that Davidson could win the A10T.

Rhodys a lock; Bonnaventure is a lock; Davidson is obviously capable of winning the Automatic bid; and I highly suspect there are two or three other teams that could do it; but I might have underestimated just how good Bonnaventure can be, and thus the problem with my "A10 gets three bids theory", is Bonnies might be unstoppable.

Davidson could win the A10. They have the talent. The thing that held them back in past years, and this year, is they do not play consistently good defense. Can they do it three games in a row?

It would be sweet to see the BE get only 4 in and in a bad bad down year the A-10 get 3 in.

I understand your reasoning, but the way we have folded here lately there is hardly any defense that we indeed are a bad loss. I still think St B should be in though.

As of Thursday’s results, Dance Card had the Bonnies at 29 and Rhody at 31. Third-best A10 team is Davidson at 100. Talk about a gap!

Still, A10 should get 2 bids this year, unless someone besides the Bonnies or Rhody takes the crown a week from tomorrow.

Also, does anyone know where Dance Card had Rhody last weekend, after they drilled us in the 2nd half? Have to believe they were in the mid-to-high 20s at that point. Their hubris this past week may have moved them down to the 8/9 line.
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This is irrelevant. Both SBU and URI are dancing. Book it.

That should be the case, and both teams have solid, off-the-bubble resumes, but the Bonnies have been “fornicated” on Selection Sunday before.
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:D Beware of the "book it". Is that a hard book it, or a soft book it? Or is just another failed "lock". It ain't over 'til it's over.

If the A10 was offered two slots without playing anymore, they should take it.

Fine, I'll bite. Rhody is already a mathematical lock. For SBU to be left out they would have to lose today, lose right away next week and then get snubbed with a still-sub-30 RPI and 4 Top-50 wins. Their epic snub of two years ago was a 30-RPI/3 Top-50 win resume. The odds that this historic of a snub could happen to the same school in 2 out of 3 years are so astronomically small that I can comfortably say: BOOK IT.

The BE could potentially get 7 in. The dance card has 6 in now. Marquette is the 2nd team out on the dance card.

I'm just saying that if Davidson wins the A10 Championship, it's POSSIBLE that SBU will get jobbed again. And therefore a historic UNBOOK.

The announcers in our last game could not have lobbied harder for SBU to be in the tournament.

They also had a man-crush on Watanabe while DD poured in 22, half of it on W.