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-   -   2014 UD Men's Soccer Season Preview (http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25829)

Chris R 08-25-2014 11:09 PM

2014 UD Men's Soccer Season Preview
 
The 2014 UD Men’s Soccer team has the unenviable task of raising the bar on last year’s 14-2-3 campaign, a season where the players by and large did what they were asked to do, but were ultimately let down by a schedule so weak that even a two-loss season couldn’t punch their postseason dance card. The schedule was all the more disappointing considering the capable talent returning from 2012’s 11-5-2 squad. Last year, UD shot out of the gates like California Chrome and by mid-October were the last unbeaten and untied team in the country.

Winners of their first 10 games, Dayton climbed to #18 in the national rankings. Down the stretch however, a 4-2-2 conference record hurt UD’s razor-thin NCAA at-large chances. The final nail in the coffin: a PK shootout loss to #4 seed LaSalle in the A10 quarterfinals. The soft season schedule resulted in a #85 RPI – a good parsec or two from NCAA tournament relevancy.

Last year we wrote:

“As bullish as we are however, it’s hard to forget about the anemic schedule and how that alone might ruin UD’s postseason chances. At this point, there’s nothing left to do but go out and win matches. And it may take a lot of wins – 16 or 17 – to sniff the NCAA bubble.”


Looking ahead to 2014, a new team with a new schedule is on tap. Is there enough meat on the bone – and talent -- to impress the NCAA selection committee, or is it another useless exercise in tomfoolery?

DEPARTURES

The graduation of attacking MF/F Abe Keller is the most important piece missing from this year’s offense. Keller led the team in points but needed 100 shots to find the back of the net seven times, twice as many shot attempts as anyone else on the team. Keller provided long-strike (and quick-strike) capability from beyond the goal box and chipped in with a team-leading nine assists. A 1st Team All-A10 selection as a senior, he was reliable and UD’s best option deep in the attacking zone, but lacked ball-winning chutzpah and called his own number with overambitious shot attempts on too many occasions.

Midfielder Andres Acevedo spent much of his senior year battling a leg injury – poor timing because of his All-Conference potential. The gimped-up wheel kept him from fully exploiting his electric speed over the course of the season. Acevedo contributed two goals and came into form later in the year after getting healed up. His change of pace and work rate were a shot in the arm whenever the Flyer offense needed some life. While Acevedo’s career can be summed up as an off-and-on starter, no one ever questioned the effort he gave in making his minutes count.

Fellow MF Eddie Jones was in and out of the starting XI for much of his career, working as a physical central midfielder capable of helping out on defense. Likewise, Victor Duru provided athletic ability but neither player was asked to handle much of the scoring.

Defensively, Jonathan Nelson played in all 19 matches a year ago and was a steady marking back Head Coach Dennis Currier had confidence in to make the right reads and decisions in the defensive third. He had the same confidence in defender John Howe as both were rarely taken off the field. Swedish defender Christopher Lenning played in all 19 matches last year and was perhaps UD’s most talented and consistent defensive player, but did not return this year. That’s three defensive starters gone.

Defender Bastien Allheily saw action in 10 matches and netted one goal, while MF Brian Alvarez made eight appearances and didn’t scratch.

RETURNEES

Senior Greg Enstone returns as the top scorer from last year, netting 10 goals alongside two assists. His 10 goals came on half as many shots as Keller, a good indication of Enstone’s judicious play and timeliness in the Flyer attack. Named 2nd Team A10 as a junior, he’s arguably Dayton’s most important scoring threat heading into the season. And he’ll need to be. Enstone has that right-place/right-time DNA and his feel for the game is remarkably good.

Fellow senior Amass Amankona finished 2013 with five goals and five assists, good enough for third-best on the team. What Amankona gives up in size at 5-7, he overcomes with lightning-quick speed and change-of-direction. He’s also more physical than most soccer scouts give him credit for, challenging (and winning) loose balls against larger players in the attacking half of the field. In many ways he’s similar to former Flyer forward Daniel Berko. He was a helpful transfer addition last year, making A10 All-Rookie.

Midfielder Maik Schoonderwoerd is a jack-of-all-trades giant from The Netherlands that switched from defense to offense as a Flyer sophomore. The 6-6 junior is capable of playing centrally or out wide, and as a MF or target forward. He was fourth-best in scoring last year (3gls, 4asts). Having played as a marking back and attacking player, he’s blessed with an understanding (and respect) of both positions and is one of UD’s better two-way players – a novelty anymore in the game of soccer.

Sophomores James Haupt and Rafael Gamboa each earned A10 All-Rookie nods in 2013 while combining for four goals and five assists in 35 collective appearances. Both are creative attacking-minded players that fit well at striker or somewhere in the midfield.

Forward Ryan Peterson made his minutes count as a true freshman, scoring three goals and adding an assist in just seven appearances. RS Freshman Brian Richards burst onto the scene a year ago as a Flyer newcomer, scoring four goals in the first two matches, but broke his leg in the process and sat out for the remainder of the year. Healthy again, he’s a player to watch – especially if Richards can rekindle the early magic of 2013.

Defender Andrew Lightner saw action in 15 matches. The RS sophomore defender is one of the few familiar names battling to replace the minutes of Howe, Lenning, and Nelson in the back line. At 6-3, Lightner has good size to defend the edges as well as over the top, and has grown more comfortable on the field as his playing time increased.

Names like Brian Bates, Anthony Keene, Michael Frasca, and Justin Saliba played minor roles in 2013 but each has at least two years of eligibility and should take on greater responsibility. Saliba might have the toughest assignment playing behind junior GK Chris Froschauer. Midfielder Tommy Harr and defender Ben Emery redshirted and retain four years of eligibility.

Between the pipes, Froschauer returns as one of the league’s top goalkeepers. The 6-3 Kentucky native played every minute of every match last year and unless someone else surprises or he gets injured, that iron-man streak should continue. Only on the rarest occasions were opponents scoring off the poor hands or judgments of Froschauer; he stopped nearly every dangerous ball that a reasonable goalkeeper would be expected to save. He’s a game-changer, especially in close matches.

NEWCOMERS

The Flyers needed defensive help and they certainly recruited like it.

Lance Gasper (Makato, MN) was named one of the Top-15 players in his region by Top Drawer Soccer, while 6-1 Lalas Abubakar spent a year at the University of Ghana and has experience with the U20 Ghanaian National Team pool. Fellow Ghanaian Alex Amankwaah is a 6-2 junior – also from the University of Ghana – and is poised to help somewhere in the back line or midfield.

Dillon Nino (Fresno, CA) won a U16 national title at the club level in 2012 and spent most of his time in the central defense at Vista Grande HS. Michael Brezovsky (Plano, TX) is a 6-3 defender with versatility and a winning attitude, collecting four North Texas State Cup titles for the Dallas Texans. Fellow Texan Brandon Moore (Flower Mound, TX) is another Flyer newcomer from the same club team that should help bolster the back line or midfield in future years. Aidan Bean is an in-stater from Olentangy Liberty HS, while 6-0 Connor Ballantyne (Shelby Township, MI) was a 4-star recruit according to Top Drawer Soccer. Danny Kelly (Orland Park, IL) is a 6-2 defender from Carl Sandburg HS. He won a Super Y League national title in 2010.

The Flyers also recruited a pair of freshmen goalkeepers from the state of Ohio. Both are 6-2 and both hail from two of the state’s top HS programs. Nate Brown played for St. Edward HS in Cleveland, while Matthew Markiewicz hails from Mentor HS.

In the midfield and attack, graduate student and international Daniel Spencer (Poole, UK) played for Cardiff Met University before transferring to UD and has one year of eligibility. Raul Fierro continues the Texas pipeline (El Paso) and at 6-0 brings good size in the middle third of the pitch. Missouri-native Zach Kavanaugh played for the nationally-competitive Scott Gallagher Academy. He also won a state title at the prep level during his sophomore year at Desmet Jesuit HS. Nick Hagenkord might be the jewel of the recruiting class. He’s a 6-0 MF from nationally-respected St. Thomas Aquinas HS and was a finalist for Kansas Gatorade State Player of the Year. He was two-time 1st Team All-State as well as NSCAA Prep All-American.

Nino and Brezovsky started in the Butler exhibition, while Spencer, Abubakar, Amankwaah, and Nino got the nod against West Virginia. Others came off the bench for their first experience in a Flyer uniform.

SCHEDULE

UD opens the season on the road against Loyola (IL) on 8/30, returning home the following weekend for a Friday/Sunday home-opening weekend against High Point and Detroit in the Dayton Flyer Classic. A tourney at UAB matches Dayton against Jacksonville on 9/12, followed by the host Blazers on 9/14. Currier’s team remains on the road for a rare Friday/Monday weekend, tackling IUPUI in Indianapolis on 9/19, followed by the marquee non-con opponent on the schedule – #2 Maryland – in College Park on 9/22.

The Flyers return home to host Ohio State on 9/27, followed by a bus ride to Valparaiso on 9/29 to round out the guts of the non-con schedule.

The A10 schedule begins on 10/4 when UD entertains A10 newcomer Davidson College in the lone match of the opening weekend. George Mason comes to Baujan Field on 10/10. A road trip to UMass (10/17) and Rhode Island (10/19) precede three straight home games against A10 frontrunner St. Louis on 10/25, an out-of-conference match against Western Michigan (10/28), and Fordham on 11/2. Dayton wraps up the A10 season on the road with matches at LaSalle on 11/7 and St. Joseph’s on 11/9. The A10 tournament follows a week later – hosted by VCU.

Clearly, the Flyers needed a major upgrade over the 2013 schedule, but does this schedule go far enough to ensure Dayton has a path to the NCAA tournament by virtue of a stellar non-conference performance? The short answer is yes, but the long-winded answer is probably not.

Maryland is a match the Flyers might have to tie or win in order to impress enough NCAA tournament committee members in late November, but that’s a tall task (almost an unrealistic one) considering where both programs are. The Terps are national-title contenders, while the Flyers must rebuild the defense and find some consistency against tougher opponents.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, UAB poses the next best signature-win opportunity. The Blazers finished with a #35 RPI in 2013 and are ranked #27 in the preseason national polls. Like Maryland, it’s a true road match for the Flyers -- but this is one they can realistically grind a result from. Aside from these two matches however, the remainder of the non-con schedule is much like last year – full of hot air. With 203 NCAA Division-I programs, the rest of the foes stack up like this:

Loyola-Chicago 6-11-2 (#142)
High Point 8-8-3 (#93)
Detroit 3-11-4 (#182)
Jacksonville 4-11-3 (#189)
IUPUI 2-12-5 (#195)
Ohio State 5-8-5 (#90)
Vaparaiso 5-8-5 (#128)
Western Michigan 9-9-1 (#99)

None of those schools finished with a record better than .500 last year, relegating this schedule better – but only marginally better – than the apocalypse of 2013. Because RPI value is generated mostly by your opponents’ record, it’s difficult to play the math game to Dayton’s advantage with a schedule like this.

What last year’s non-con schedule didn’t have was an opponent like Maryland. Should the Flyers shock the world, that win alone could punch UD’s ticket – provided they mop the floor everywhere else and don’t stumble against teams they should soundly defeat.

Looking deeper into the A10 schedule, the Flyers get a couple chances to pad the resume’: #58 St. Louis and #38 George Mason. But the Flyers miss out on VCU – ranked #26 in the preseason NSCAA poll. There’s some A10 meat, but not a lot. Assuming the Flyers cannot get around Maryland and/or UAB, it may require a clean sweep in the A10 to generate enough quality wins and RPI rank to garner a sniff at the NCAAs.

Unfortunately, the schedule has put the team at a disadvantage once again and was constructed in a way that puts too many hopes and dreams on a game or two, rather than spreading the wealth and building a schedule against a bevy of programs where every win counts for something and every loss is excusable. If you need 15-17 wins to earn a NCAA at-large bid, the schedule is too light. Perhaps we’re vastly over-estimating the scheduling drama and under-estimating the difficulty of a program like Dayton to piece together a schedule built to challenge a good team with quality opponents. Looking back at 2013, we were spot-on in our premonition. But we’d love to eat crow this time around.

THE FLYERS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF…

…if Dayton can figure out how to replace last season’s defensive starters. Losing one or two is difficult enough, but replacing three career starters is even more of a challenge, especially Lenning – one of the best one vs. one defenders in the entire conference. Lightner has experience, but he’s about it. Newcomers must fill in the gaps and hold things together while the defense coalesces. The good news is Chris Froschauer returns at GK and can help ease their learning curve and also cover for early mistakes.

…if UD cashes in on their two important non-conference matches against Maryland and UAB. A win and a loss is a good start, but a tie and a win would be even better. It might even be necessary. Should Dayton get over the proverbial hump and beat quality non-con opponents, the rest of the non-con sets up nicely and the A10 schedule has just enough quality to keep the train on the tracks.

…If Amankona or Enstone become 1st team All Conference scorers. The Flyers have lacked a true superstar for the better part of a decade, the kind of player that commanded attention and respect both inside and outside the league. To UD’s credit, success has come from a sum greater than the individual parts. Against the top teams however, teams need to be able to point to their Rolls Royce players and win a game on an individual moment of brilliance. That’s where Schoonderwoerd comes in. At 6-6, he’s a primary target on every deep cross in the box. He’s also physical. Can he become this year’s Omar Jarun or Florian DeCamps?

DAYTON WILL STRUGGLE IF…

…if the Flyers don’t get off to a good start, the music may stop before the first chair is pulled. Like last season, there is no room for mulligans on this schedule and Dayton must beat every team on the schedule they are favored in. Winning and losing are habit-forming. That’s how you win 10 games in a row to start the year, but it’s also how teams can hit the skids and never leave the gate on time.

…if the defense is a patchwork solution not ready for prime-time. Offense wins games but defense still wins championships. Dayton stands the best chance of beating the top opponents on the schedule by keeping the score down. Without that happening, boom goes the dynamite. UD is not going to up-end Maryland or UAB by a 5-4 score. It’s a bad sign if the coaching staff is forced to move Schoonderwoerd back to defense in order to plug the dike.

…if ball-winning and work-rate become problematic. Teams that challenge for and win a majority of the 50/50 balls usually win the most matches. Andres Acevedo is no longer out there to change the tempo of the match with his NASA-like rocket fuel. Someone else – preferably more than one person – must take ownership of the team’s on-the-field work habits and hold players accountable.

OUR PREDICTIONS

Dayton has stabilized and groomed a winning attitude over the last two seasons, chalking up a 25-7-5 record and more competitive expectation within the A10. Despite the gaudy record however, there are no championships or postseason appearances to show for it. The product has been good, but the measurement by which that product is graded has been deeply offset by the level of competition.

To UD’s credit, they’ve learned to take care of business against the teams they are favored to beat. That’s no small potatoes considering college soccer is competitive from top to bottom, as well as fluky and inexplicable. Far more talented teams have fared far worse against the same kind of programs. Upsets can and do happen far more regularly in the men’s game as opposed to women’s college soccer.

Speaking of upsets, it’s time for UD to start pulling a few of their own and grow up. We don’t mean that in a pejorative way, but as a challenge to further the program and raise the level of expectations. The Flyers need to exit their comfort zone. We already know UD can beat the bottom 50 teams in college soccer. It’s time to show fans and national beat writers that UD has what it takes to battle nationally-respected programs and come away with consistent results. To do that however you gotta give yourself a chance. Talent has been upgraded over the last two or three seasons. Reward them with opportunities to show their talents on the bigger stages.

In a low-scoring match, Chris Froschauer is a difference-maker. One of the best UD goalkeepers in the last 15 years, he’s the kind of player that can single-handedly keep Dayton in a match they are otherwise getting outplayed in. Likewise, Greg Enstone, Amass Amankona, Maik Schoonderwoerd, James Haupt, Rafael Gamboa, and the return of Brian Richards are a collective nucleus that provide Dayton some teeth in the offense. This is an experienced team, but also a very young team in critical areas. Fresh faces will see the field early and be counted on to make a difference.

The A10 has its share of hurdles. St. Louis, VCU, and George Mason have all separated themselves a bit from the rest of the league, but there’s room at the top and none of them are without their own concerns.

We like the trajectory of the Flyers, but we think a piece or two is still missing to compete realistically for the top spot in the conference. A Top-4 finish in the A10 is respectable based on all of the points we’ve made. To accomplish more than that, we need to see things yet unseen. To somehow get past Maryland and/or UAB, the same holds true.

We thought last year’s team could go undefeated and they nearly did. That has no chance of happening in 2014 however. The combination of youth and inexperience in the back line can’t be overlooked no matter how many goals the Flyers score. What UD has however is a lot of bodies to throw at the problem and by year-end, we think this team will do something last year’s team could not – play their best soccer at the end of the year. We expect a work-in-progress to start the year and truth be told, all of our hand-wringing about the relatively weak non-conference schedule might not ultimately matter. It could end up serving a purpose.

To that end, we see the Flyers finishing 4th/5th in the A10 and missing the postseason. Dayton will lose some games it shouldn’t, but we also predict a victory or two against opposition favored against the Flyers.


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