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-   -   Outliers & bubbles on NCAA Dance Card (http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30664)

UD90 03-12-2017 03:54 PM

Outliers & bubbles on NCAA Dance Card
 
The last two years the committee has pulled a team from below the dance card's bubble cut into the field at a team predicted in the field's expense.

In 2016 - It was #55 Syracuse and #47 Vanderbilt
for #44 San Diego State and #34 St Marys

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2016.htm

In 2015 - It was #48 Dayton, #49 Boise State, and #58 UCLA
for #46 Colorado State, #47 Miami (Fla), and #38 Temple

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm

This year's Dance Card

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I think the dance card nails it this year, but curious if the dance card misses this year - who do they miss on? I don't see how they can pull Syracuse into the field. I don't see anyone else below that they would feel strongly enough about to bump someone out. The Big East schools seem to be the most at risk now that URI has the auto bid.

IN THE FIELD
32 Virginia Tech
33 Michigan St.
34 Seton Hall
35 @Middle Tennessee (auto)
36 Miami FL
37 Providence
38 South Carolina
39 Marquette
40 Xavier
41 Rhode Island (auto)
42 Oklahoma St.
43 Northwestern
44 @Wichita St. (auto)
45 USC
46 @Nevada (auto)
47 @UNC Wilmington (auto)
48 Wake Forest
49 Kansas St.
Bubble burst here ----->

50 Illinois St.
51 UT Arlington
52 @Vermont (auto)
53 Houston
54 Illinois
55 Syracuse
56 Monmouth
57 BYU
58 College of Charleston
59 Iowa
60 Georgia
61 Princeton
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Clemson

CE80 03-12-2017 04:00 PM

Syracuse for Kansas St
Posted via Mobile Device

UD90 03-12-2017 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CE80 (Post 495109)
Syracuse for Kansas St
Posted via Mobile Device

hmmm. I like it.

P5 has to eat its own (or the Big East or Witchita State) to make it happen though. That was what jumped out at me when I looked at it this year.

SLUFLYER 03-12-2017 04:09 PM

If I had to pick, I'd say they take Cuse over Wake, USC or Kstate.....in that order.

I think the committee pulls Wake because of their lack of quality wins/record vs the Top 50/Top 100.

I hate Syracuse and hope the committee punishes them for such a crappy non con SOS and for such a weak road/neutral performance and ignore the six (6) Top 50 wins.

USC's resume is similar to Cuse, but Cuse has more Top 50 wins. Kstate has similar resume as Wake's, but actually had an atrocious non con SOS.

If it were solely up to me I would leave Cuse at home. If I had to pick one to remove to put Cuse in, I would remove KState. I can't stand Power 5 schools that have ridiculously weak non con schedules.

ruechalgrin 03-12-2017 04:11 PM

If Syracuse makes it again, blah. They should not have made it in 2016 and should not make it again in 2017. Lack of road/neutral wins and horrific out of conference scheduling should be punished.

UD90 03-12-2017 04:16 PM

I think (IF) they pull someone up into the field it will be at the expense of a Big East team. They have 4 bubble teams bunched together. 3 finished at 10-8 in the conference. One finished at 9-9.

I don't think they will pull someone up, but it would be easy to eliminate a team who has only beat Depaul since February 4th and tourney win over a Butler team that has never won a Big East tournament game.

CT Flyer 03-12-2017 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UD90 (Post 495108)
The last two years the committee has pulled a team from below the dance card's bubble cut into the field at a team predicted in the field's expense.

In 2016 - It was #55 Syracuse and #47 Vanderbilt
for #44 San Diego State and #34 St Marys

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2016.htm

In 2015 - It was #48 Dayton, #49 Boise State, and #58 UCLA
for #46 Colorado State, #47 Miami (Fla), and #38 Temple

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm

This year's Dance Card

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I think the dance card nails it this year, but curious if the dance card misses this year - who do they miss on? I don't see how they can pull Syracuse into the field. I don't see anyone else below that they would feel strongly enough about to bump someone out. The Big East schools and Witchita State seem to be the most at risk now that URI has the auto bid.

IN THE FIELD
32 Virginia Tech
33 Michigan St.
34 Seton Hall
35 @Middle Tennessee (auto)
36 Miami FL
37 Providence
38 South Carolina
39 Marquette
40 Xavier
41 Rhode Island (auto)
42 Oklahoma St.
43 Northwestern
44 @Wichita St.
45 USC
46 @Nevada (auto)
47 @UNC Wilmington (auto)
48 Wake Forest
49 Kansas St.
Bubble burst here ----->

50 Illinois St.
51 UT Arlington
52 @Vermont (auto)
53 Houston
54 Illinois
55 Syracuse
56 Monmouth
57 BYU
58 College of Charleston
59 Iowa
60 Georgia
61 Princeton
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Clemson

Am i missing something??? Didn't Wichita State earn an automatic bid?

UD90 03-12-2017 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CT Flyer (Post 495119)
Am i missing something??? Didn't Wichita State earn an automatic bid?

No. I am missing something. Thanks for the catch. Big East are the only non P5 schools at risk.

MikeF 03-12-2017 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin (Post 495113)
Lack of road/neutral wins and horrific out of conference scheduling should be punished.

Are you telling me you're not impressed by a 2-8 road record combined with an 0-3 neutral record?

CE80 03-12-2017 06:33 PM

Did Dance Card nail it?

UD90 03-12-2017 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ce80 (Post 495211)
did dance card nail it?

100% 36 of 36

ud2 03-12-2017 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UD90 (Post 495225)
100% 36 of 36

Watching it on CBS, it seemed like Dance Card nailed it for 100%. Extremely impressive.

CoffeeCan 03-12-2017 10:07 PM

USA Today Bracketologist -
"Not too shabby, 68/68 right, 63/69 exact or within 1."

http://www.bracketwag.com/


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