The real problem this year
 

Lost in the discussion of whether AG can or can't coach in the Flyer universe I think are some bigger problems this team is having this year on the offensive end that factor in this close games.

First, is that UD is 322 in the country out of 351 D1 teams in turnovers forced. Why is this important? Forcing turnovers are the back bone of being able to get easy buckets in transition. I can find fast break points for UD by game but not overall. Just looking at those and my recollection of the games this year lines with this being a UD that can't get easy buckets in transition. There's competent defenders on this team but no one who's truly disruptive on the defensive side of the ball.

The team doesn't push the ball up on missed shots either often which also cuts down on transition baskets.

So all this means that Dayton has to get points in it's half court offense. Obi and Josh are great at scoring inside and Crutcher has shown that he can attack the basket and knock down shots from the outside. There's not a player out of the rest of the team who can consistently create his own shot, attack the basket and finish/get to the line or can make tough, contested shots.

This is a tough position for the team to be in. Jordan Davis I like as a player and still think he can be a great player but if you look at the box score on the offensive end he's disappeared for way too many games this year. Is this some kind of Darrell Davis sophomore year where a guy who's a good shooter is just off for most of a season?

Cohill is playing like a freshman. Trey and Mikesell are 4/5th options on offense. Important players, needed on the team but it's trouble if those are guys that have to be relied upon in the half court especially when Jordan is having an off day. On a NCAA team Trey/Ryan would play the glue guy role and be the 5th option on offense. Certainly those guys are capable of having good games but they're not consistent enough to be able to hang your hat on them.

So if Jordan Davis is off (more times than not this year) the half court offense is Obi/Josh and Crutcher. That's a lot of playing a lot of possessions where the offense has 2-3 guys they can realistically count on. That puts pressure on Crutcher if the post is covered to force shots or try to make something happen.

The defense in the most of the losses outside of Auburn was enough to win but the offense just couldn't get over the hump. Some of that is a testament to other teams D but I think the real problem is being limited in the half court offense game. The high shooting % as a team from points in the paints makes the offense look better statistically than what it actually is

Late game the opposing coach to work to double/take away Obi/Josh and force the other guys to beat them in a half court and based the results they can't do it.

The lack of real depth is why they don't press and force turnovers. More fouls occur. The depth also can account for the slow offense.

A lot of emphasis in placed on Anthony's coaching ability, but the talent level and depth are issues that are hard for any coach to overcome. That is why in mind the jury should still be out. (unless you decided day 1.)

The slow offense was there at Alabama and VCU. That's nothing new for AG despite what he says. His teams have been Wisconsin not HAVOC VCU.

Likewise, I'm not sure the press is coming because that doesn't seem to be what he plays.

A press isn't the only way to force turnovers and create run outs. Steals (Dayton is 302/351 teams this year), deflections, disrupting the passing lanes, etc can all force turnovers and set up a transition game. There's just not a disruptive defender on the team

Agree with STF's point about the connection between forcing TO's and fouls. It's also why we're losing the rebound battle on a consistent basis (although I'd argue that some rebounding fundamentals are missing in a few guys too). It's because we can't afford to foul because we can't afford to blow through our short bench and into the walkons.

Regarding Mikesell from the original post I'd argue that he's becoming more than a 4th or 5th scoring option. He is showing signs of being a true leader out there of late. Both by words and by actions. He's even showing some hops with the recent baseline slam and a couple of blocks off the board. My confidence in him as a scoring threat is growing by the game.

I agree the lack of depth leads to less risk taking and having to be more cautious with the foul situation.

This team is playing well but not finishing well. We have no " go to" guy who can create his shot. Normally when there are only a few seconds on clock, one guy gets the ball at the top of the key and everyone else clears out. In that situation, who is that player. We don't have one.

Cunningham, while a strong player, only has one move and it takes time.

Obi is a freshman and doesn't have quick post moves just yet. I would like him to learn the Jack Sikma move of catching the ball and turning to face the basket and either shoot or drive.

Our other players are about as good as their going to be and that's not bad.
Our lack of depth limits what our coach can do and to some extent limits our ability to press, run or foul. George Mason drove repeatedly untouched to the basket. While this is unspoken, you would like a big man to flatten a few attempts. But we can't afford to do that.

Still hoping for 20 wins.

I think they need to incorporate some isolation plays into the offense.

There are times when I look at the matchups on the floor, and say "there's no way that guy can guard Obi, or Trey (or who ever it may be)".

I'd really like to see the staff run some more iso's, and try to take advantage of the matchups. Seems like the only isolation play I see is run for Crutcher out top (though it's not often some one isn't coming to set a pick for him).

I truly believe this could eventually help the team come crunch time... giving them another option to go to in last 4 minutes (other than 2 man game we seem to always run).

Similar to how AG's 3rd option at end of the game was Mikesell taking his man to the basket (ended up with a kick out for a fairly good look from 3).

The problem is other teams are quick to double down on our post players. When that happens, you need to make some outside shots. When the outside shots don't fall - you lose.

Many times in these end of games situation or in general on offense is attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. Pierre, Sibert, Cooke, Scoochie and even Kyle Davis could all do this. The current crop of guards/wings/forwards aren't great at this

Looking to next year Rodney Chatman got to FT line 119 times last year. That's a solid number for a guard on a bad team.

Obi should be getting 5 or 6 alley oops per game, or at least catches down low for him to force either a basket and/or a foul. I think he is very underused.

Part of the problem is on him, though. He needs to know when to break to the basket depending on the possibility of a lob, not just blindly break to the rim with no possible play every time he sets a pick. Sometimes what is needed is a hesitation, eye contact, mind meld, and then a swoop. He is surrounded by good players with good intentions but the chemistry is not there yet. He should be a highlight reel every night.

Next year?

I agree on Obi needing to learn more of those nuances of the game. I noticed against GM on Wednesday at least 3 or 4 occasions where he set the high screen, then rolled down the left side of the lane. Problem was, he was looking for an immediate feed for a layin on the move, instead of looking to establish position on the block, against a smaller player. If he had established position, he could have received an entry pass and then reversed course into the lane and shot the baby hook with his dominant (right) hand. With his height advantage on the guy guarding him, that’s probably 4-6 points we didn’t get but easily could have.

If he learns from this, and exploits such advantages in the games to come, then we’re onto something. If not, then there’s definitely a problem somewhere (with either the player, the coaching, or a combination of the 2). And, frankly, Cunningham executes this fairly well a number of times each game, so all Obi needs to do is watch game film on his own teammate.
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Some good observations on Obi. As I recall reading, he grew quite a bit late in high school so perhaps he doesn’t have a lot of experience playing in the post? Seems like a ton of upside but work to do. Of course, if he was a already a finished product he would be at UK or Duke instead of UD. On both Obi as well as coaches to work together to improve.
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Figgie or anyone else. Is there way of finding out fast break points by season?

Is there a way? Yes. It's listed in the play-by-play, as well as in-the-paint buckets.

Does Figstats track them? No.

Is there any other easy metric to be able to compare fast break offense that doesn't require a data project?

I like this stat....before February 1, 2019, this year’s team has won 14 games - the program’s total wins last year.

I think almost everyone thought this year’s team would be better than last years for a bunch of different reasons including better chemistry and better buy-in to AGs system, but as we know it comes down to on-court results.

Congrats to almost the entire UDPride board for getting this one right. (Heaven help us if anyone thinks we won’t win anymore this year. There might be a couple in that boat. We all know who I’m taking about. Lol :whiteflag:)

Cunningham and Obi routinely get double and triple teamed when they get the ball underneath the basket. I don't remember many if any times, in this situation, they pass the ball off to a player coming to his assistance (crashing the hoop) and making a basket.

If we had crashing players making baskets on tape, for other teams to see, this would help us in getting double teamed. And it would fire up the UD fans.

I hope UD has this as a set play.

Bad effort last night and smashed on the glass but the same problems keeping showing up

1. 3 fast break points. 9 turnovers forced including at least one shot clock violation

2. Inability to get the FT line. Starting guards had 0 FT attempts. Trey 0, Mikesell 2, Cohill 1

3. No perimeter shooting
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I see two issues.

1) Settling for threes. JC has taken one each of last two games. How many more have been airballed as a team? Nobody is shooting a high enough percentage to settle for threes as much as we do.

2) this leads back to #1, the team is soft around the rim. We get more shots blocked on lazy layups. Tre for as big as he is gets rejected multiple times a game. Need to take it to the defender and get fouled, not shy away. This imo leads to them settling for threes