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| LIBob |
12-02-2019 12:08 PM |
2020 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities
While we wait for the rankings to come out, something to chew on.
Probabilities Through games of 12/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 52.43% 25.04% 11.33% 5.71% 2.96% 1.42% 0.70% 0.27% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.91
VA Commonwealth 28.40% 29.63% 17.42% 10.42% 6.45% 3.69% 2.06% 1.09% 0.50% 0.22% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 2.67
Richmond 6.14% 12.34% 16.29% 16.23% 14.27% 11.89% 8.60% 6.10% 3.86% 2.32% 1.21% 0.52% 0.18% 0.05% 4.77
Duquesne 5.06% 11.14% 16.63% 16.77% 14.68% 11.91% 8.88% 6.21% 3.94% 2.44% 1.38% 0.64% 0.28% 0.07% 4.88
Davidson 3.93% 10.13% 15.17% 16.46% 15.52% 12.92% 9.80% 6.76% 4.40% 2.55% 1.40% 0.63% 0.26% 0.07% 5.06
Rhode Island 2.66% 6.61% 11.27% 13.55% 14.52% 13.82% 11.82% 9.60% 6.60% 4.49% 2.71% 1.44% 0.68% 0.24% 5.83
St Louis 0.72% 2.31% 4.83% 7.54% 10.29% 12.87% 14.67% 13.84% 11.78% 8.83% 5.96% 3.68% 1.94% 0.75% 7.32
George Mason 0.41% 1.50% 3.18% 5.49% 8.03% 10.64% 12.72% 13.53% 12.95% 11.33% 8.93% 6.05% 3.57% 1.67% 8.07
St Bonaventure 0.16% 0.80% 2.19% 4.00% 5.96% 8.24% 10.45% 12.58% 13.86% 12.98% 11.18% 8.66% 5.75% 3.21% 8.78
La Salle 0.07% 0.27% 0.92% 1.80% 3.29% 5.37% 8.09% 10.79% 13.30% 14.74% 13.99% 12.10% 9.24% 6.04% 9.73
Fordham 0.03% 0.14% 0.50% 1.19% 2.25% 3.70% 5.86% 8.31% 11.26% 13.94% 15.66% 14.89% 12.82% 9.48% 10.38
Massachusetts 0.01% 0.08% 0.21% 0.58% 1.16% 2.15% 3.74% 5.96% 8.89% 12.04% 15.89% 18.83% 17.43% 13.05% 11.06
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.16% 0.33% 0.73% 1.35% 2.60% 4.50% 7.38% 11.19% 16.57% 24.37% 30.79% 12.21
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.13% 0.30% 0.66% 1.27% 2.38% 4.07% 6.73% 10.40% 15.97% 23.48% 34.57% 12.33
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| shocka43 |
12-03-2019 12:41 AM |
This is my favorite continual post of the year because it determines when I decide to arrive in Brooklyn...
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| Flyerferd |
12-03-2019 08:25 AM |
Obviously anything can happen, but A 95-ish percent chance of locking up a top four seed already is a nice thing to look at.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shocka43
(Post 601967)
This is my favorite continual post of the year because it determines when I decide to arrive in Brooklyn...
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The issue of arrival has not been the problem in recent years - it's been the departure. |
| jack72 |
12-03-2019 01:16 PM |
How are these probabilities determined?
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| LIBob |
12-04-2019 04:37 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by jack72
(Post 602021)
How are these probabilities determined?
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It's calculated based upon 100,000 simulations of the A-10 schedule determining the winner of each game according to KenPom Win Probabilities. |
| LIBob |
12-09-2019 11:04 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 12/8:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 57.50% 22.71% 10.17% 5.00% 2.51% 1.18% 0.58% 0.25% 0.08% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.80
VA Commonwealth 21.43% 27.58% 18.59% 12.48% 8.17% 5.23% 3.26% 1.84% 0.90% 0.35% 0.14% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 3.06
Richmond 8.04% 14.99% 17.18% 15.84% 13.58% 10.88% 7.91% 5.46% 3.32% 1.70% 0.74% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 4.44
Duquesne 4.11% 10.13% 14.44% 15.75% 14.91% 12.91% 10.16% 7.52% 4.92% 2.83% 1.44% 0.62% 0.22% 0.05% 5.13
Davidson 3.29% 8.95% 13.13% 14.86% 14.93% 13.66% 11.62% 8.58% 5.53% 3.10% 1.44% 0.63% 0.22% 0.06% 5.34
Rhode Island 3.73% 8.92% 12.82% 14.28% 14.37% 13.34% 11.20% 8.84% 6.00% 3.64% 1.79% 0.75% 0.27% 0.07% 5.42
St Louis 1.22% 3.66% 6.33% 9.15% 11.97% 14.09% 14.85% 13.68% 11.02% 7.23% 4.02% 1.83% 0.76% 0.20% 6.72
St Bonaventure 0.31% 1.46% 3.50% 5.67% 7.81% 10.46% 13.03% 14.45% 14.45% 12.12% 8.42% 4.82% 2.53% 0.96% 7.93
George Mason 0.28% 1.17% 2.52% 4.12% 6.44% 8.96% 11.76% 14.41% 15.17% 14.03% 10.09% 6.42% 3.45% 1.20% 8.37
La Salle 0.08% 0.34% 0.96% 1.92% 3.39% 5.36% 8.33% 11.65% 15.57% 16.99% 14.61% 10.50% 6.84% 3.46% 9.46
Fordham 0.00% 0.07% 0.27% 0.63% 1.20% 2.31% 3.95% 6.72% 10.25% 15.00% 18.86% 17.74% 13.83% 9.16% 10.75
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.16% 0.38% 0.85% 1.72% 3.16% 5.86% 10.24% 16.44% 22.37% 22.77% 15.97% 11.69
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.29% 0.64% 1.28% 2.59% 5.13% 8.87% 14.31% 20.17% 25.12% 21.44% 11.97
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% 0.13% 0.35% 0.84% 1.80% 3.88% 7.71% 13.84% 23.93% 47.42% 12.91
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| Buster |
12-09-2019 11:17 AM |
I am surprised George Mason is so low and Richmond is so high. Seems like they are both the good surprises this year. Note: I have no idea who GM has played, but they ARE 10-1! Richmond has won some good games and are 8-1. Yet probability says UR 3rd, and GM 9th.
Davidson whoa... wish they can get it turned around before conference.
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| LIBob |
12-16-2019 11:49 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 12/15:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.52% 20.72% 9.87% 5.03% 2.57% 1.31% 0.59% 0.28% 0.09% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.79
VA Commonwealth 15.33% 23.31% 18.72% 14.30% 10.58% 7.35% 5.05% 2.90% 1.58% 0.64% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 3.54
Duquesne 10.69% 19.02% 19.34% 16.12% 12.44% 8.99% 6.11% 3.84% 2.10% 0.90% 0.33% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00% 3.94
Richmond 6.33% 12.79% 14.97% 15.42% 14.50% 12.27% 9.39% 6.80% 4.24% 2.17% 0.78% 0.25% 0.09% 0.01% 4.77
Davidson 3.12% 9.38% 12.66% 14.78% 15.33% 14.10% 11.77% 8.99% 5.51% 2.75% 1.10% 0.37% 0.13% 0.02% 5.30
Rhode Island 3.21% 8.04% 11.45% 13.50% 14.23% 14.02% 12.31% 9.78% 6.88% 3.99% 1.64% 0.66% 0.24% 0.05% 5.59
St Louis 1.07% 3.32% 5.67% 8.42% 11.09% 13.74% 15.32% 14.93% 12.10% 8.23% 3.81% 1.63% 0.56% 0.14% 6.85
St Bonaventure 0.39% 1.81% 3.82% 5.98% 8.59% 11.17% 13.85% 15.13% 15.11% 12.00% 6.78% 3.36% 1.52% 0.50% 7.65
George Mason 0.26% 1.15% 2.31% 3.97% 6.09% 8.92% 11.92% 14.87% 16.67% 15.46% 9.69% 5.36% 2.55% 0.79% 8.31
La Salle 0.08% 0.44% 1.06% 2.14% 3.72% 6.11% 9.34% 13.29% 17.32% 18.75% 13.10% 8.21% 4.56% 1.87% 9.11
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.14% 0.34% 0.78% 1.66% 3.39% 6.54% 12.11% 20.11% 22.88% 19.90% 12.07% 11.49
Fordham 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.26% 0.56% 1.33% 2.79% 5.55% 10.35% 17.93% 21.56% 21.51% 18.00% 11.78
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.25% 0.61% 1.22% 2.55% 5.15% 9.72% 17.38% 22.11% 23.95% 16.94% 11.83
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.16% 0.45% 1.17% 2.91% 7.17% 13.46% 24.98% 49.62% 13.05
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| LIBob |
12-23-2019 10:13 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 12/22:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 65.51% 18.50% 8.15% 3.96% 2.01% 1.06% 0.46% 0.23% 0.08% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.65
VA Commonwealth 12.37% 22.93% 18.19% 13.96% 10.84% 8.32% 5.95% 3.86% 2.18% 1.00% 0.31% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 3.79
Duquesne 7.27% 16.41% 17.78% 15.86% 13.12% 10.53% 7.86% 5.42% 3.35% 1.60% 0.57% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 4.39
Davidson 4.98% 14.09% 15.71% 15.46% 14.09% 11.97% 9.39% 6.73% 4.24% 2.15% 0.83% 0.27% 0.08% 0.01% 4.77
Richmond 3.44% 8.74% 11.40% 12.88% 13.65% 13.25% 12.07% 10.02% 7.53% 4.46% 1.77% 0.58% 0.20% 0.03% 5.61
Rhode Island 3.56% 9.22% 11.92% 13.16% 13.69% 13.12% 11.77% 9.86% 7.00% 4.09% 1.69% 0.66% 0.22% 0.04% 5.53
St Louis 1.93% 5.70% 8.35% 10.87% 12.40% 13.57% 14.14% 12.64% 9.84% 6.26% 2.78% 1.06% 0.36% 0.09% 6.26
George Mason 0.50% 1.92% 3.52% 5.45% 7.72% 10.17% 12.61% 14.92% 15.46% 13.73% 7.71% 3.91% 1.80% 0.59% 7.84
St Bonaventure 0.34% 1.87% 3.65% 5.71% 7.81% 10.03% 12.74% 14.95% 15.85% 13.33% 7.50% 3.87% 1.74% 0.62% 7.82
La Salle 0.12% 0.57% 1.19% 2.29% 3.79% 6.01% 8.86% 12.83% 17.10% 19.31% 13.10% 8.31% 4.51% 2.01% 9.11
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.04% 0.09% 0.23% 0.48% 1.02% 1.99% 3.80% 7.17% 12.91% 21.87% 21.82% 17.31% 11.28% 11.33
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.16% 0.44% 0.94% 1.99% 4.21% 8.36% 16.01% 21.95% 24.33% 21.52% 12.05
Fordham 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.09% 0.18% 0.41% 0.94% 2.01% 4.30% 8.56% 16.34% 20.80% 22.82% 23.51% 12.06
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.10% 0.28% 0.75% 1.72% 4.22% 9.52% 16.50% 26.56% 40.29% 12.78
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| LIBob |
12-30-2019 11:05 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 12/29:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 68.44% 18.40% 7.12% 3.23% 1.50% 0.77% 0.34% 0.14% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.56
VA Commonwealth 14.92% 28.04% 18.89% 13.13% 9.40% 6.40% 4.32% 2.62% 1.44% 0.62% 0.17% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 3.38
Davidson 4.44% 14.45% 16.49% 15.56% 13.75% 11.56% 9.16% 6.88% 4.18% 2.28% 0.85% 0.29% 0.10% 0.01% 4.77
Rhode Island 4.36% 12.44% 15.33% 15.27% 13.87% 11.80% 9.80% 7.61% 5.06% 2.75% 1.14% 0.42% 0.13% 0.03% 4.99
Duquesne 2.69% 8.47% 12.57% 14.13% 14.14% 13.31% 11.60% 9.52% 6.67% 4.12% 1.76% 0.75% 0.24% 0.05% 5.55
Richmond 2.68% 8.20% 11.28% 12.54% 13.41% 13.16% 12.19% 10.46% 7.80% 5.11% 2.12% 0.76% 0.25% 0.06% 5.76
St Louis 1.54% 5.33% 8.72% 11.20% 12.79% 13.50% 13.74% 12.35% 9.91% 6.54% 2.87% 1.10% 0.35% 0.09% 6.28
St Bonaventure 0.32% 1.95% 4.11% 6.11% 8.31% 10.62% 12.65% 14.11% 15.31% 13.04% 7.42% 3.73% 1.70% 0.62% 7.73
George Mason 0.47% 1.94% 3.77% 5.69% 7.58% 10.15% 12.40% 14.44% 15.38% 13.70% 8.07% 3.99% 1.80% 0.63% 7.84
La Salle 0.14% 0.75% 1.57% 2.73% 4.26% 6.62% 9.58% 13.23% 16.99% 18.31% 12.43% 7.52% 4.14% 1.74% 8.92
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.26% 0.51% 1.11% 1.99% 3.84% 7.05% 12.65% 21.62% 21.82% 17.73% 11.31% 11.34
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.09% 0.26% 0.55% 1.06% 2.23% 4.63% 8.97% 17.05% 22.55% 23.22% 19.37% 11.93
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% 0.19% 0.35% 0.90% 1.84% 3.83% 8.01% 15.31% 20.67% 23.44% 25.35% 12.15
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.29% 0.72% 1.72% 3.88% 9.17% 16.37% 26.92% 40.76% 12.81
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| LIBob |
01-06-2020 09:55 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 01/05:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 71.38% 18.49% 6.32% 2.48% 0.85% 0.33% 0.10% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.45
VA Commonwealth 15.07% 32.82% 21.17% 13.22% 8.13% 4.78% 2.68% 1.35% 0.58% 0.18% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.03
Richmond 6.58% 18.68% 20.86% 18.80% 13.76% 9.10% 5.78% 3.52% 1.85% 0.80% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 4.01
Duquesne 4.81% 16.58% 22.79% 19.88% 14.08% 9.42% 6.14% 3.46% 1.76% 0.79% 0.23% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 4.10
Davidson 0.99% 5.62% 10.29% 14.54% 17.25% 16.18% 13.50% 10.21% 6.44% 3.27% 1.19% 0.38% 0.11% 0.03% 5.71
Rhode Island 0.49% 2.60% 5.97% 9.80% 13.23% 15.49% 15.76% 14.38% 10.74% 6.76% 3.18% 1.15% 0.37% 0.09% 6.66
St Louis 0.41% 2.38% 5.30% 8.37% 12.29% 15.46% 16.73% 15.43% 11.91% 7.44% 3.08% 0.92% 0.23% 0.06% 6.80
St Bonaventure 0.24% 2.17% 5.30% 8.33% 11.62% 13.89% 15.22% 15.09% 13.02% 8.99% 4.11% 1.51% 0.42% 0.11% 7.00
La Salle 0.02% 0.41% 1.15% 2.44% 4.57% 7.48% 11.34% 15.66% 19.72% 18.09% 11.15% 5.24% 2.06% 0.67% 8.66
George Mason 0.02% 0.22% 0.73% 1.77% 3.32% 5.94% 8.76% 12.65% 17.41% 20.95% 15.09% 8.02% 3.77% 1.36% 9.21
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.33% 0.82% 1.64% 3.17% 5.91% 10.68% 17.89% 26.50% 17.88% 10.18% 4.88% 10.67
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.34% 0.85% 2.26% 5.77% 12.63% 23.68% 27.25% 27.07% 12.44
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.04% 0.12% 0.29% 0.87% 2.15% 5.36% 13.12% 22.27% 26.27% 29.49% 12.49
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.20% 0.59% 1.49% 3.72% 9.48% 18.86% 29.32% 36.25% 12.76
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| CoffeeCan |
01-06-2020 02:07 PM |
Refresh my memory... first four teams get a double bye?
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| Medford |
01-06-2020 02:57 PM |
I believe so, bottom for play to open things up, then move on to 8 teams playing 4 games day 2, then 8 more teams, including the top 4 seeds moving on to play 4 games day 3 then down like normal.
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| ClaytonFlyerFan |
01-06-2020 03:25 PM |
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
(Post 607583)
|
It is the goal to be in that slot but I don’t like playing at noon on Friday the 13th.
I’ll be at Barclays
Posted via Mobile Device |
| LIBob |
01-09-2020 09:53 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 01/08:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 70.67% 18.53% 6.62% 2.66% 1.02% 0.36% 0.12% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.47
VA Commonwealth 13.98% 30.42% 20.95% 14.24% 8.96% 5.63% 3.33% 1.66% 0.62% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.18
Duquesne 5.99% 18.64% 23.43% 19.29% 14.07% 9.13% 5.30% 2.62% 1.05% 0.36% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.88
Richmond 7.03% 19.00% 20.98% 19.00% 13.35% 9.19% 5.74% 3.30% 1.59% 0.61% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 3.95
Rhode Island 0.95% 4.39% 8.68% 13.26% 17.12% 17.35% 15.28% 11.69% 6.48% 3.04% 1.22% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02% 5.88
St Bonaventure 0.72% 4.56% 9.14% 12.82% 15.86% 16.70% 15.46% 12.62% 7.22% 3.30% 1.18% 0.32% 0.09% 0.02% 5.93
Davidson 0.28% 2.21% 4.81% 8.82% 13.09% 16.84% 18.86% 17.20% 9.89% 4.88% 2.07% 0.76% 0.22% 0.06% 6.64
St Louis 0.37% 2.04% 4.59% 7.82% 11.94% 15.42% 18.22% 17.67% 11.98% 6.50% 2.62% 0.67% 0.16% 0.02% 6.83
La Salle 0.01% 0.14% 0.54% 1.26% 2.50% 4.93% 8.57% 14.63% 22.66% 20.83% 13.66% 6.72% 2.71% 0.86% 9.16
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.04% 0.14% 0.41% 1.03% 2.11% 4.11% 8.28% 16.24% 22.04% 22.74% 13.64% 6.79% 2.44% 10.18
George Mason 0.01% 0.02% 0.13% 0.40% 0.99% 2.11% 4.30% 8.17% 15.70% 22.09% 21.63% 13.96% 7.48% 3.00% 10.22
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.09% 0.31% 0.89% 2.98% 7.01% 14.35% 24.43% 27.12% 22.78% 12.29
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.11% 0.30% 0.88% 2.53% 6.31% 13.19% 23.02% 26.13% 27.49% 12.42
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.37% 1.08% 2.86% 7.03% 16.02% 29.20% 43.30% 12.98
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| shocka43 |
01-09-2020 11:42 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CE80
(Post 607598)
It is the goal to be in that slot but I don’t like playing at noon on Friday the 13th.
I’ll be at Barclays
Posted via Mobile Device
|
I don't either...I like that AM flight and the 6p game lol. |
| LIBob |
01-13-2020 10:42 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 01/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 80.46% 12.45% 4.13% 1.75% 0.70% 0.35% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.32
Duquesne 7.16% 26.55% 20.95% 16.12% 12.04% 8.38% 5.41% 2.36% 0.78% 0.21% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.64
VA Commonwealth 4.12% 16.78% 17.25% 15.86% 14.38% 12.23% 9.64% 6.37% 2.39% 0.77% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 4.48
Rhode Island 3.43% 15.59% 16.73% 16.24% 14.37% 12.63% 10.27% 6.55% 2.93% 0.93% 0.29% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 4.61
St Louis 1.66% 8.98% 12.69% 14.90% 15.54% 15.36% 13.70% 9.90% 4.78% 1.85% 0.57% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 5.31
Richmond 1.95% 9.38% 12.31% 13.70% 14.93% 15.18% 13.65% 10.77% 5.28% 2.06% 0.63% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 5.37
St Bonaventure 1.03% 8.16% 10.92% 12.77% 14.64% 15.46% 15.70% 12.53% 5.61% 2.27% 0.72% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 5.61
Davidson 0.19% 1.92% 4.38% 7.07% 10.11% 13.93% 18.02% 22.11% 12.79% 6.05% 2.44% 0.74% 0.20% 0.04% 6.97
George Mason 0.01% 0.14% 0.39% 0.99% 1.93% 3.63% 6.91% 14.24% 28.30% 21.30% 12.59% 6.18% 2.62% 0.79% 9.24
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.05% 0.14% 0.32% 0.68% 1.47% 3.27% 7.50% 17.08% 23.68% 24.72% 12.99% 5.89% 2.24% 10.23
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.12% 0.29% 0.64% 1.32% 3.02% 6.26% 14.63% 26.44% 25.38% 13.70% 6.07% 2.10% 10.32
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.16% 0.82% 2.92% 7.24% 14.82% 27.01% 25.68% 21.30% 12.26
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.07% 0.37% 1.46% 3.88% 9.26% 20.35% 27.90% 36.69% 12.78
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.21% 1.05% 3.33% 8.34% 18.57% 31.60% 36.85% 12.86
|
| Medford |
01-13-2020 11:01 AM |
These could certainly firm up a bunch over the next two weeks for UD, or fall apart.
|
| shocka43 |
01-13-2020 03:40 PM |
Glad to see Duquesne back in the hunt.
|
| LIBob |
01-16-2020 09:50 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 01/15:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 85.95% 9.61% 2.80% 1.06% 0.39% 0.14% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.21
Duquesne 3.97% 21.86% 19.52% 16.92% 14.53% 11.56% 8.26% 2.51% 0.67% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.02
Rhode Island 2.86% 16.76% 18.09% 17.29% 15.51% 12.99% 9.73% 4.67% 1.52% 0.44% 0.11% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 4.40
Richmond 3.15% 16.95% 17.32% 16.53% 15.41% 13.62% 10.33% 4.55% 1.50% 0.50% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 4.43
VA Commonwealth 1.40% 12.62% 14.73% 15.45% 15.66% 15.47% 13.30% 7.77% 2.53% 0.80% 0.22% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 4.93
St Bonaventure 1.31% 12.54% 13.91% 14.96% 15.57% 16.05% 14.76% 7.81% 2.27% 0.65% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 4.97
St Louis 1.34% 9.16% 12.18% 14.39% 15.85% 16.42% 15.47% 9.69% 3.74% 1.34% 0.35% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 5.29
Davidson 0.02% 0.44% 1.23% 2.73% 5.38% 9.68% 17.29% 31.13% 16.85% 8.63% 4.16% 1.74% 0.61% 0.14% 7.85
George Mason 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.29% 0.68% 1.58% 4.12% 11.40% 24.22% 21.69% 16.86% 11.23% 5.71% 2.09% 9.93
La Salle 0.00% 0.03% 0.09% 0.27% 0.66% 1.49% 3.63% 9.01% 18.22% 23.56% 20.37% 13.98% 6.42% 2.30% 10.18
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.34% 0.86% 2.39% 7.93% 17.75% 21.24% 21.46% 15.72% 8.69% 3.46% 10.46
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.48% 2.47% 7.05% 12.54% 18.90% 24.97% 21.16% 12.29% 11.67
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.15% 0.81% 2.56% 5.52% 10.79% 18.48% 27.48% 34.18% 12.62
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.26% 1.13% 2.93% 6.47% 13.68% 29.92% 45.55% 13.04
|
| Flyerferd |
01-16-2020 11:02 AM |
So, using these numbers, we have a 99.42% chance of finishing in the top 4. Duquesne checks in at 62.47, Rhode Island 55%, Richmond 53.95, VCU 44.2, Saint Bonaventure 42.72, and St. Louis at 37.07. finally, Davidson checks in at a measly 4.42%. Richmond VCU game on January 28 is monsterous in terms of getting the double bye.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
| Glen Clark |
01-16-2020 12:24 PM |
Richmond's odds just took a hit - Blake Francis (17.6 ppg) will miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured sternum.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ncis-4-6-weeks
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
:beermug: |
| LIBob |
01-20-2020 09:36 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 1/19:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 87.50% 8.83% 2.49% 0.78% 0.29% 0.09% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.18
Richmond 3.83% 21.30% 19.16% 16.61% 14.41% 11.83% 8.30% 3.49% 0.82% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.09
Duquesne 3.48% 20.33% 18.77% 16.99% 14.87% 12.35% 9.26% 3.11% 0.66% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.14
VA Commonwealth 1.85% 17.62% 17.60% 16.74% 15.65% 13.40% 9.76% 5.84% 1.23% 0.27% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.45
Rhode Island 2.29% 15.34% 17.40% 17.32% 15.61% 13.77% 10.88% 5.86% 1.21% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.52
St Louis 0.47% 8.61% 12.15% 14.62% 16.31% 16.96% 16.05% 10.84% 3.09% 0.75% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.32
St Bonaventure 0.56% 7.36% 10.61% 13.10% 15.39% 17.65% 18.91% 12.32% 3.14% 0.79% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.51
Davidson 0.03% 0.59% 1.71% 3.56% 6.62% 11.49% 19.80% 34.48% 13.65% 5.36% 2.04% 0.60% 0.07% 0.00% 7.44
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% 0.22% 0.54% 1.47% 3.57% 10.01% 26.30% 25.61% 19.49% 9.82% 2.76% 0.12% 9.80
George Mason 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.05% 0.19% 0.58% 1.78% 6.29% 21.28% 24.19% 21.86% 15.01% 7.95% 0.79% 10.36
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.36% 1.36% 6.14% 20.51% 25.09% 24.39% 14.42% 6.90% 0.70% 10.38
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.25% 1.30% 5.67% 10.59% 17.65% 32.27% 27.52% 4.67% 11.74
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.32% 2.45% 6.70% 13.86% 26.53% 47.24% 2.85% 12.17
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.24% 1.28% 7.57% 90.87% 13.89
|
Right now I am more concerned with the 8/9 seeds. Winner plays the 1 seed at noon on Friday in Brooklyn. Don't want to see SLU in either of those slots.
|
| Medford |
01-20-2020 01:04 PM |
Potential for separation this week.
UD vs bona, @ Richmond
Duquesne @ Rhody, @ UMass
If both sweep this week, it sets up a scenario where the winner not only commands the #1 seed, but also has a huge 2 game advantage over the rest of the field (everyone else would have at least 2 losses)
If that were to happen, plus VCU and SLU win all their games except vs UD or each other, its possible to have 3-4 teams in strong consideration come selection Sunday.
|
| LIBob |
01-23-2020 09:59 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 1/22:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 88.68% 8.43% 2.11% 0.56% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15 99.78% 100.00%
Richmond 4.92% 31.06% 20.54% 15.61% 12.16% 8.33% 4.89% 2.17% 0.29% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.56 72.12% 100.00%
Rhode Island 3.89% 25.45% 27.09% 17.94% 11.61% 7.51% 4.14% 2.04% 0.30% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.59 74.37% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 1.30% 16.27% 18.73% 19.24% 16.61% 12.61% 8.73% 5.39% 0.92% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.40 55.55% 99.97%
Duquesne 0.99% 9.75% 14.76% 19.51% 19.83% 16.50% 11.66% 5.54% 1.16% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.80 45.01% 99.94%
St Bonaventure 0.09% 4.69% 7.78% 11.27% 14.53% 18.02% 20.02% 17.73% 4.31% 1.20% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 5.95 23.83% 99.64%
St Louis 0.09% 3.35% 6.39% 10.39% 14.43% 18.36% 20.33% 18.93% 5.72% 1.65% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 6.16 20.22% 99.64%
Davidson 0.04% 0.98% 2.55% 5.25% 9.90% 16.46% 23.82% 28.10% 8.77% 2.91% 0.85% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 6.92 8.83% 98.80%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.11% 0.37% 1.06% 3.01% 8.91% 32.59% 24.51% 15.51% 8.29% 4.12% 1.48% 9.84 0.15% 70.60%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.11% 0.36% 0.96% 2.66% 7.11% 21.23% 27.47% 19.95% 11.62% 6.07% 2.46% 10.21 0.12% 59.91%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.12% 0.51% 2.86% 15.88% 21.71% 25.06% 18.09% 10.77% 4.99% 10.90 0.01% 41.09%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.66% 4.21% 8.89% 15.83% 26.19% 25.81% 18.25% 12.13 0.00% 13.92%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.30% 2.87% 6.77% 13.43% 19.73% 26.22% 30.62% 12.50 0.00% 10.01%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.26% 1.75% 4.44% 8.72% 15.66% 26.92% 42.21% 12.87 0.00% 6.49%
|
| LIBob |
01-27-2020 09:39 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 1/26:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 94.72% 4.56% 0.56% 0.13% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.06 99.97% 100.00%
Rhode Island 3.90% 39.24% 28.40% 15.34% 7.38% 3.54% 1.58% 0.55% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.03 86.88% 100.00%
Richmond 0.36% 26.91% 22.01% 17.43% 13.84% 9.73% 6.06% 3.15% 0.43% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.90 66.71% 99.99%
VA Commonwealth 0.76% 18.91% 23.16% 21.17% 15.19% 10.26% 6.80% 3.32% 0.36% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.08 64.00% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.15% 2.95% 8.56% 15.29% 19.63% 19.61% 17.51% 12.57% 2.73% 0.75% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 5.67 26.95% 99.75%
St Louis 0.06% 4.32% 8.42% 13.11% 16.32% 18.39% 18.75% 15.84% 3.64% 0.91% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 5.81 25.91% 99.75%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 1.40% 4.84% 9.76% 14.87% 18.81% 21.18% 22.13% 4.97% 1.51% 0.42% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00% 6.35 16.01% 99.48%
Davidson 0.04% 1.71% 4.03% 7.67% 12.31% 18.18% 23.35% 24.96% 5.59% 1.60% 0.41% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 6.53 13.45% 99.44%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.45% 1.43% 5.37% 27.23% 25.20% 19.28% 12.29% 6.63% 1.93% 10.26 0.05% 59.87%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.08% 0.28% 1.04% 4.76% 24.88% 24.59% 22.03% 14.82% 6.68% 0.81% 10.36 0.03% 55.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.20% 0.62% 1.81% 5.34% 17.89% 23.13% 22.17% 17.75% 8.18% 2.87% 10.56 0.04% 49.03%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.11% 0.45% 1.73% 9.33% 15.56% 21.55% 28.15% 17.13% 5.95% 11.38 0.01% 27.22%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.21% 2.43% 5.10% 9.81% 17.07% 32.03% 33.32% 12.70 0.00% 7.76%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.47% 1.51% 3.90% 9.63% 29.29% 55.11% 13.31 0.00% 2.07%
|
| udisit19 |
01-27-2020 11:26 AM |
That was a big jump from 88.68 to 94.72. I guess it reflects us now owning a tie-breaker over a team predicted to finish 3rd. That was Richmond's only game against us.
|
| LIBob |
01-30-2020 08:50 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 1/29:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 94.19% 5.32% 0.46% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.06 99.99% 100.00%
Rhode Island 4.90% 51.22% 24.00% 11.95% 5.13% 1.97% 0.64% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.71 92.07% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.80% 22.70% 31.39% 20.27% 12.08% 7.18% 3.75% 1.64% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.66 75.16% 100.00%
Richmond 0.04% 12.61% 17.76% 19.62% 18.91% 15.80% 10.08% 4.29% 0.74% 0.13% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.59 50.03% 99.97%
St Louis 0.06% 5.01% 11.37% 16.38% 19.72% 19.18% 15.76% 10.45% 1.64% 0.34% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.36 32.82% 99.91%
Duquesne 0.01% 1.30% 7.00% 14.09% 18.98% 21.76% 22.88% 10.40% 2.65% 0.70% 0.19% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 5.82 22.40% 99.77%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.48% 6.67% 14.39% 18.56% 21.05% 20.03% 14.34% 2.77% 0.56% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.87 22.54% 99.85%
Davidson 0.00% 0.36% 1.33% 3.19% 6.31% 11.76% 21.55% 37.20% 12.81% 3.91% 1.25% 0.31% 0.03% 0.00% 7.40 4.89% 98.42%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.17% 0.70% 2.92% 11.59% 36.21% 23.68% 14.96% 7.71% 1.92% 0.08% 9.64 0.07% 75.34%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.17% 0.67% 2.59% 16.80% 26.20% 24.52% 18.03% 8.71% 2.27% 10.71 0.01% 46.48%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.25% 1.00% 4.03% 13.83% 20.26% 24.94% 23.96% 9.00% 2.67% 10.84 0.01% 39.43%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.17% 0.71% 3.18% 10.95% 20.62% 24.79% 28.07% 10.53% 0.93% 10.96 0.02% 35.69%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 1.33% 3.07% 6.97% 14.85% 37.41% 36.25% 12.92 0.00% 4.53%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.11% 0.51% 2.17% 6.99% 32.40% 57.81% 13.44 0.00% 0.63%
|
| LIBob |
02-03-2020 12:52 PM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 92.02% 7.62% 0.34% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08 99.99% 100.00%
Rhode Island 7.78% 65.90% 18.17% 5.50% 1.87% 0.59% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.30 97.36% 100.00%
Richmond 0.06% 13.52% 20.80% 20.30% 17.84% 14.29% 9.14% 3.84% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.42 54.67% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.05% 5.38% 28.72% 23.80% 17.58% 12.28% 7.62% 4.29% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 57.96% 100.00%
St Louis 0.08% 5.02% 13.67% 18.22% 19.13% 18.13% 14.76% 10.20% 0.70% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.21 37.00% 99.99%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.34% 8.57% 14.31% 18.20% 20.69% 19.78% 15.59% 1.36% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.78 24.23% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.89% 7.98% 13.75% 17.74% 21.05% 24.27% 12.46% 1.58% 0.24% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.82 22.62% 99.96%
Davidson 0.00% 0.33% 1.75% 4.09% 7.56% 12.65% 22.42% 42.44% 7.29% 1.23% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 7.13 6.17% 99.76%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.22% 1.26% 6.83% 42.26% 24.50% 15.52% 7.36% 1.93% 0.05% 9.75 0.01% 75.14%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.17% 1.05% 18.28% 27.12% 24.20% 17.16% 9.52% 2.47% 10.76 0.00% 46.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.32% 2.57% 16.98% 22.59% 25.39% 21.02% 8.69% 2.40% 10.80 0.00% 42.51%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.64% 8.96% 18.95% 24.11% 31.14% 15.07% 0.99% 11.25 0.00% 28.69%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 2.08% 4.63% 8.79% 17.71% 37.02% 29.70% 12.72 0.00% 6.79%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.48% 1.72% 5.58% 27.77% 64.40% 13.54 0.00% 0.54%
|
| LIBob |
02-06-2020 12:29 PM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/5:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 92.37% 7.27% 0.33% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 7.52% 68.57% 17.29% 4.33% 1.50% 0.58% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.26 97.71% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.05% 5.45% 30.75% 23.17% 15.90% 11.47% 8.03% 4.94% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.42 59.42% 100.00%
Richmond 0.04% 13.08% 18.67% 19.88% 18.80% 14.94% 9.92% 4.45% 0.19% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.52 51.67% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.02% 2.22% 16.26% 23.39% 23.83% 19.96% 10.74% 3.31% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.90 41.89% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 2.00% 12.03% 17.91% 19.11% 18.69% 17.69% 12.24% 0.33% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.44 31.93% 100.00%
St Louis 0.01% 1.14% 3.41% 7.89% 13.66% 20.34% 26.47% 24.87% 1.91% 0.25% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.39 12.45% 99.96%
Davidson 0.00% 0.27% 1.26% 3.41% 7.17% 13.89% 25.84% 41.25% 5.70% 0.99% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 7.12 4.94% 99.78%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.41% 4.02% 38.10% 26.14% 18.35% 9.90% 2.96% 0.06% 10.00 0.00% 68.73%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.18% 1.19% 20.81% 25.83% 23.19% 17.14% 9.30% 2.33% 10.71 0.00% 48.04%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.41% 2.86% 18.90% 22.32% 23.82% 20.77% 8.49% 2.39% 10.74 0.00% 44.53%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.76% 11.09% 18.85% 23.68% 29.95% 14.69% 0.85% 11.18 0.00% 30.82%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 2.47% 5.09% 9.09% 17.01% 37.89% 28.36% 12.68 0.00% 7.65%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.42% 1.63% 5.20% 26.66% 66.02% 13.56 0.00% 0.49%
|
| Flyerferd |
02-06-2020 12:50 PM |
Thank you! I love this thread! now let’s roll St. Louis!
Posted via Mobile Device
|
| MrFlyerFanatic |
02-06-2020 03:42 PM |
I'm intrigued.
We didn't play.
URI won.
Our chance of being #1 increased while URI declined.
I assumed it's based on URI having less games left to catch up or the strength of their remaining schedule went up since they were favored to beat UMass, thus their percentage decreased?
Not intuitive to me.
|
| udpumpkin |
02-06-2020 04:32 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
(Post 613527)
I'm intrigued.
We didn't play.
URI won.
Our chance of being #1 increased while URI declined.
I assumed it's based on URI having less games left to catch up or the strength of their remaining schedule went up since they were favored to beat UMass, thus their percentage decreased?
Not intuitive to me.
|
He is using Kenpom win probabilities which I believe can change based on the margin of victory or how your prior opponents fared in later games. Basically, Rhode Island's probability of winning its remaining games decreased slightly relative to UD's. Maybe they should have beaten UMass by more.
Or I could be completely off-base. |
| steverino015 |
02-06-2020 05:32 PM |
but there are also 100,000
simulations being done by Dr Strange
and his multiverse, so....
umm.
okay, I'm going off course
disregard!...)
Go Flyers!
I like Doctor Strange, peeps..)
|
| LIBob |
02-10-2020 09:26 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/9:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 88.80% 10.70% 0.46% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.12 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 11.12% 70.55% 14.49% 2.87% 0.75% 0.19% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.12 99.02% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.04% 4.57% 35.78% 25.80% 16.40% 9.45% 5.63% 2.27% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.17 66.19% 100.00%
Richmond 0.04% 10.41% 20.30% 22.84% 21.36% 13.88% 8.37% 2.74% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 53.58% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 2.86% 21.10% 28.49% 23.59% 12.49% 7.84% 3.58% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.60 52.46% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.20% 4.49% 11.27% 21.58% 33.50% 21.93% 6.52% 0.45% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.78 15.96% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.65% 2.94% 7.15% 12.09% 20.48% 29.68% 24.90% 1.81% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.48 10.74% 99.96%
Davidson 0.00% 0.05% 0.44% 1.57% 4.22% 9.89% 25.40% 50.28% 6.59% 1.26% 0.28% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 7.43 2.06% 99.69%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.27% 3.01% 31.22% 27.21% 20.32% 13.59% 4.32% 0.04% 10.22 0.00% 61.73%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.59% 4.70% 26.50% 23.47% 20.78% 18.29% 5.08% 0.55% 10.37 0.00% 55.31%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.18% 1.31% 17.60% 22.72% 24.45% 25.11% 8.49% 0.09% 10.80 0.00% 41.86%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.63% 13.59% 20.16% 25.27% 24.15% 13.54% 2.57% 11.09 0.00% 34.47%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 2.05% 4.78% 8.32% 15.64% 42.69% 26.45% 12.71 0.00% 6.90%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.55% 3.18% 25.88% 70.30% 13.66 0.00% 0.09%
|
| rollo |
02-10-2020 09:49 AM |
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
|
| Medford |
02-10-2020 09:58 AM |
Rhode Island has the much easier stretch. We could split with Rhody and lose @ VCU and Rhody would control the 1 seed due to their sweep of VCU. However they lost to Richmond, where UD won, so if the tie breaker still comes down to record vs the 3rd place team, 4th, etc... then where Richmond vs VCU ends up in the standings could dictate a bunch.
One interesting quirk in their schedule...they have St Louis at home on March 1st and UD coming in 3 days later, seems like a "trap" game if I've ever seen one. Other than that they go to Davidson and should roll in their other games.
|
| UDEE79 |
02-10-2020 10:02 AM |
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
|
I am looking at the SLU 8/9 probabilities more than any other.
|
| Flyerferd |
02-10-2020 11:46 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CE80
(Post 614011)
I am looking at the SLU 8/9 probabilities more than any other.
|
This! I don’t want to see them the rest of the year!
Posted via Mobile Device |
| Medford |
02-10-2020 11:49 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by UDEE79
(Post 614010)
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
|
I believe you need to subscribe.
However, google Bart Torvik, he has something similar to kenpom and its free. Its not as popular as KenPom, he is the godfather after all, but its certainly "gaining steam" :)
http://www.barttorvik.com/# |
| Go-UD-Go |
02-10-2020 01:52 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medford
(Post 614030)
I believe you need to subscribe.
However, google Bart Torvik, he has something similar to kenpom and its free. Its not as popular as KenPom, he is the godfather after all, but its certainly "gaining steam" :)
http://www.barttorvik.com/#
|
You can calculate them from the free front page on KenPom's site, but you need to know statistics and have the ability to calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution. The hidden parameter you need is the standard deviation for men's basketball. I found an article that said the standard deviation KenPom uses is 11 points.
UDEE79, you are enough of an engineer that you should be able to do this brother. |
| SLUFLYER |
02-10-2020 02:19 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
(Post 614060)
calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution
|
I always overlook one minor detail. |
| LIBob |
02-10-2020 04:20 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by UDEE79
(Post 614010)
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
|
Yes, you need to subscribe. as someone else mentioned, you could go to Bart Torvik or Massey ratings. Their win probablities are usually within a percentage point or two of KenPom (This actually is my first year of subscribing to KenPom, I had used Massey up until this year.) |
| LIBob |
02-10-2020 04:25 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollo
(Post 614007)
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
|
It had a lot to do with how badly Rhode Island beat GW on the road. For example, their win probability for the home game vs UD went from 33% to 38%. All their remaining probabilities went up similarly while UD's went down ever so slightly for their remaining games based upon how close the SLU game was.
I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, would like to see a bigger diminishing returns factor added in. But that just me, I love to tweak things. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by LIBob
(Post 614081)
It had a lot to do with how badly Rhode Island beat GW on the road. For example, their win probability for the home game vs UD went from 33% to 38%. All their remaining probabilities went up similarly while UD's went down ever so slightly for their remaining games based upon how close the SLU game was.
I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, would like to see a bigger diminishing returns factor added in. But that just me, I love to tweak things.
|
I guess they will just have to play the games and we will see. |
| rollo |
02-12-2020 08:01 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollo
(Post 614007)
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
|
Let's see those probabilities today! |
| LIBob |
02-12-2020 09:32 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollo
(Post 614529)
Let's see those probabilities today!
|
You asked for it.
Probabilities Through games of 2/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 95.23% 4.65% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 4.72% 73.28% 16.63% 3.94% 1.12% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.24 98.56% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.03% 4.87% 32.37% 25.85% 17.74% 10.17% 6.10% 2.80% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.26 63.13% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 5.01% 26.39% 29.69% 21.58% 9.62% 5.49% 2.21% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.30 61.10% 100.00%
Richmond 0.02% 11.18% 17.55% 22.17% 22.48% 14.57% 8.50% 3.44% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.51 50.93% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.22% 3.94% 10.21% 21.42% 34.62% 21.66% 7.37% 0.51% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.84 14.37% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.74% 2.41% 6.30% 10.95% 19.31% 28.71% 29.34% 1.98% 0.23% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.61 9.46% 99.97%
Davidson 0.00% 0.05% 0.58% 1.82% 4.70% 11.36% 28.49% 47.21% 4.90% 0.77% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 7.31 2.46% 99.88%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.22% 2.12% 32.36% 27.62% 20.56% 13.51% 3.59% 0.01% 10.21 0.00% 62.34%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.55% 3.87% 26.83% 24.06% 21.30% 19.00% 4.09% 0.27% 10.36 0.00% 55.34%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.18% 1.11% 17.97% 22.80% 24.90% 25.99% 6.98% 0.03% 10.77 0.00% 42.11%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.52% 13.99% 20.72% 26.11% 25.09% 11.85% 1.64% 11.03 0.00% 35.31%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.31% 3.72% 6.76% 14.56% 49.87% 23.76% 12.79 0.00% 5.04%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.23% 1.84% 23.62% 74.30% 13.72 0.00% 0.02%
|
| udisit19 |
02-12-2020 09:36 AM |
Dayton is clearly in the driver's seat right now. If Rhode Island has a shot at number 1 in the regular season, it is only because they get help. That help is most likely to come from VCU. If we lose both the road games to RI and VCU but win our other games and RI wins out, there could be a tie at the top.
In that scenario, RI would win a tie breaker against us if VCU finishes in 3rd, because RI already won two games against VCU.
In that scenario, Dayton would win a tie breaker against RI if Richmond finishes 3rd, because RI lost to Richmond in their first match of the year.
|
| rollo |
02-12-2020 09:47 AM |
After last night, my hate for URI is almost equal to my hate for _avier basketball and _ichigan football.
|
| UDEE79 |
02-12-2020 10:07 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollo
(Post 614606)
After last night, my hate for URI is almost equal to my hate for _avier basketball and _ichigan football.
|
shouldn't that be _RI then?
I like using their full name. "University of Rhode Island - New England (URINE)" |
| UDEE79 |
02-12-2020 10:10 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
(Post 614060)
You can calculate them from the free front page on KenPom's site, but you need to know statistics and have the ability to calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution. The hidden parameter you need is the standard deviation for men's basketball. I found an article that said the standard deviation KenPom uses is 11 points.
UDEE79, you are enough of an engineer that you should be able to do this brother.
|
I am enough of an engineer to use someone else work if they already did it! |
| MrFlyerFanatic |
02-13-2020 08:48 AM |
Down goes VCU
Although we are in firm control of the top spot, VCU going down to George Mason added extra grip to our hold.
Richmond moved into the 4 spot. Having defeated URI, they are now the tie breaker if the unthinkable were to happen and we somehow fall into a tie with URI (with a loss at URI).
|
| Radar |
02-13-2020 08:59 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
(Post 614866)
Although we are in firm control of the top spot, VCU going down to George Mason added extra grip to our hold.
Richmond moved into the 4 spot. Having defeated URI, they are now the tie breaker if the unthinkable were to happen and we somehow fall into a tie with URI (with a loss at URI).
|
Richmond hosts VCU Saturday afternoon... |
Root for Richmond. In the event we drop both games @VCU and @URI; and URI wins out, the tiebreaker will come down of record against top team. URI has it if it is VCU because I believe 2-0 is better than 1-0. We are 1-0 vs Richmond vs their 0-1. If SLU was the one we have the 2-0. Hopefully same with Duquesne. That’s probably all that matters.
|
| LIBob |
02-13-2020 10:05 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/12:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 96.86% 3.04% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 3.08% 69.53% 22.22% 4.17% 0.78% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.31 99.00% 100.00%
Richmond 0.06% 20.01% 26.07% 24.81% 15.71% 8.20% 3.91% 1.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83 70.94% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 5.69% 32.02% 29.57% 17.70% 8.12% 4.82% 2.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.13 67.30% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.74% 12.54% 20.57% 24.27% 18.33% 13.83% 9.20% 0.45% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.28 33.86% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.24% 3.94% 11.30% 23.01% 31.93% 20.95% 7.62% 0.88% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.81 15.48% 99.98%
St Louis 0.00% 0.67% 2.51% 7.32% 12.43% 20.16% 26.87% 27.51% 2.17% 0.33% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.53 10.49% 99.95%
Davidson 0.00% 0.08% 0.61% 2.25% 6.09% 12.94% 28.56% 45.09% 3.59% 0.64% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 7.20 2.94% 99.86%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.43% 2.60% 37.58% 29.06% 18.87% 8.47% 2.71% 0.21% 10.00 0.00% 69.74%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.26% 2.12% 27.93% 25.28% 22.52% 17.32% 4.52% 0.01% 10.38 0.00% 55.63%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.20% 1.12% 14.69% 21.78% 25.97% 28.69% 7.46% 0.03% 10.88 0.00% 37.85%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 1.45% 11.34% 19.84% 26.55% 32.51% 7.65% 0.52% 11.02 0.00% 32.76%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.34% 2.86% 5.73% 11.93% 53.62% 24.51% 12.87 0.00% 4.21%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.16% 1.06% 24.03% 74.73% 13.73 0.00% 0.02%
|
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
| LIBob |
02-13-2020 01:35 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CE80
(Post 614917)
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
Not totally. Just the chance of not getting it is less than .01%. in fact in this simulation, UD did not get a double bye in 2 of the 100,000 simulations. |
| Go-UD-Go |
02-13-2020 01:35 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CE80
(Post 614917)
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
Not quite. It means that if the odds from KenPom are correct it is vanishingly small that it would happen. Given that we lose the rest of our games and that the 2-5 folk win the rest of theirs, we probably could lose the double bye. But the odds of that happening are very small. We are extremely heavy favorites in most of our remaining games. |
| Go-UD-Go |
02-13-2020 11:41 PM |
LIBob,
I've been calculating winning percentages from KenPom's free first page. Can you tell me if these are the same as KenPom calculates behind the paywall? I have to guess at home advantage and his standard deviation of basketball scores. Thanks. I calculated these tonight 2/13/20.
91% @Umass
63% @Vcu
91% Duquesne
86% @GMU
90% Davidson
62% @URI
98% GW
|
| MD Flyer Pride |
02-14-2020 07:42 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
(Post 614979)
LIBob,
I've been calculating winning percentages from KenPom's free first page. Can you tell me if these are the same as KenPom calculates behind the paywall? I have to guess at home advantage and his standard deviation of basketball scores. Thanks. I calculated these tonight 2/13/20.
91% @Umass
63% @Vcu
91% Duquesne
86% @GMU
90% Davidson
62% @URI
98% GW
|
Interestingly enough, your numbers matchup pretty closely to the "matchup predictor" on the ESPN app. +/- 2-3% points. Some are dead on. |
| LIBob |
02-14-2020 09:27 AM |
As of This morning:
Sat Feb 15 199 Massachusetts W, 82-67 69 92% Away ×
Tue Feb 18 47 VCU W, 74-70 69 64% Away ×
Sat Feb 22 92 Duquesne W, 79-65 67 91% Home ×
Tue Feb 25 155 George Mason W, 78-66 67 87% Away ×
Fri Feb 28 86 Davidson W, 79-66 65 89% Home ×
Wed Mar 4 45 Rhode Island W, 76-72 70 63% Away ×
Sat Mar 7 226 George Washington W, 83-60 66 98% Home ×
|
| MrFlyerFanatic |
02-14-2020 03:50 PM |
Technically...
Quote:
Originally Posted by CE80
(Post 614917)
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
If we were to go 0-7 and a perfect combination of statistically improbable other things occurred, we could finish 8th. |
| udisit19 |
02-14-2020 04:26 PM |
A win against UMass would put us at 12-0 with only 6 games remaining and ensure we finish above both UMass and GW (both currently at 4-7).
SLU (6-5) hosts La Salle (2-9). SLU will be a heavy favorite.
Davidson (6-5) plays at St. Bonaventure (9-3) The Bonnie's conference schedule has been soft, but they are playing well in their last 3.
SLU and Davidson are almost eliminated from 1st place regular season finish.
|
| LIBob |
02-17-2020 09:47 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/16:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 98.03% 1.92% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.02 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 1.92% 60.75% 32.98% 3.27% 0.83% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.41 98.91% 100.00%
Richmond 0.06% 34.20% 35.47% 16.73% 7.76% 3.56% 1.72% 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.18 86.45% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.43% 16.48% 27.23% 21.04% 14.56% 11.57% 7.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.96 45.13% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.55% 6.61% 17.47% 23.73% 24.80% 17.13% 9.10% 0.58% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56 24.64% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.07% 3.51% 17.05% 19.11% 18.51% 18.65% 21.77% 1.20% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.02 20.63% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.86% 3.11% 10.88% 13.89% 18.43% 23.09% 29.26% 0.43% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.35 14.85% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.23% 1.80% 7.36% 13.64% 19.86% 27.38% 28.35% 1.31% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.54 9.39% 100.00%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.34% 2.35% 64.71% 22.15% 7.81% 2.45% 0.11% 0.00% 9.42 0.00% 89.63%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.63% 12.77% 29.18% 26.22% 26.09% 5.01% 0.02% 10.79 0.00% 42.67%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 5.78% 30.75% 35.56% 20.03% 6.88% 0.88% 10.94 0.00% 36.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 12.53% 15.65% 24.73% 37.88% 8.21% 0.79% 11.15 0.00% 28.39%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 1.95% 5.24% 11.64% 52.03% 28.45% 12.98 0.00% 2.65%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.43% 1.91% 27.78% 69.87% 13.67 0.00% 0.02%
|
| MD Flyer Pride |
02-18-2020 11:59 PM |
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.
After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...
Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis
Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
|
| shocka43 |
02-19-2020 03:13 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride
(Post 616309)
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.
After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...
Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis
Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
|
Let's hope for an upset on Thursday. |
| LIBob |
02-19-2020 08:21 AM |
After last night games, the Flyers are assured of a double bye.
|
| ClaytonFlyerFan |
02-19-2020 09:15 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride
(Post 616309)
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.
After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...
Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis
Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
|
Davidson by far has the toughest schedule of those fighting for the 8th spot. Hoping they lose at least three of their last 5 as facing VCU or St. L for a third time is not how I would want to start the tourney. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by shocka43
(Post 616317)
Let's hope for an upset on Thursday.
|
What game on Thursday? I don't see any A10 games on the calendar for Thursday. |
| m21eagle45 |
02-19-2020 09:22 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 616360)
What game on Thursday? I don't see any A10 games on the calendar for Thursday.
|
I think he means the Thursday of the tournament. |
| Flyerferd |
02-19-2020 09:35 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by m21eagle45
(Post 616363)
I think he means the Thursday of the tournament.
|
and upset wouldn’t really matter because more than likely if one of these teams is not number eight, they are number nine. We get the winner of the 8/9 game. So pick your poison I guess. I think if I had to pick an opponent, it would be Davidson. It’s the only one of the 14s mentioned here we won’t seen twice.
Posted via Mobile Device |
| ClaytonFlyerFan |
02-19-2020 09:39 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyerferd
(Post 616367)
and upset wouldn’t really matter because more than likely if one of these teams is not number eight, they are number nine. We get the winner of the 8/9 game. So pick your poison I guess. I think if I had to pick an opponent, it would be Davidson. It’s the only one of the 14s mentioned here we won’t seen twice.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
The four teams listed above are in a battle for positions 5 through 8, #9 would more than likely be either GW or UMass |
| Medford |
02-19-2020 09:59 AM |
^
If you use Bart Torvik's system and expected outcome, the 8 & 9 seed would be Davidson vs GW. However, things are still very much up in the air. Any of those teams could fall down to the 8 or 9 seed line, all have tough matchups.
Davidson still has games vs Rhody and VCU plus @ Dayton and @ Richmond plus LaSalle at home. Is Davidson the team that smacked Bona around in Olean, and was the preseason #2 pick, or the team that allowed St joes to storm back from 19 down at half and pick up their first conference win of the year?
Davidson easily won over SLU at home, and would have the tie breaker if those two teams ended up tied for 7th, SLU has the next toughest slate ahead, with games @ Rhody plus home dates with VCU and Bona
Duquesne beat SLU (x2) and Davidson, hard to see them falling to the 8 seed at this point, a Win over GW tonight may just about lock that in.
VCU has the next 2 @ SLU and @ UMass, and close out @ Davidson. Win one of those and they probably stay in the top 7.
Lots of shuffling to be done before Brooklyn, can UD just get a triple bye and move straight to the semis?
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by LIBob
(Post 616335)
After last night games, the Flyers are assured of a double bye.
|
I still need the updated spreadsheet. It's like a drug. I need it. |
| LIBob |
02-19-2020 11:13 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CE80
(Post 616388)
I still need the updated spreadsheet. It's like a drug. I need it.
|
Here you go.
Probabilities Through games of 2/18:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 99.47% 0.52% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.01 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.52% 62.32% 34.52% 2.25% 0.30% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.40 99.61% 100.00%
Richmond 0.01% 34.97% 37.62% 18.32% 6.33% 2.09% 0.54% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.05 90.92% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.65% 19.26% 37.43% 19.41% 11.39% 7.65% 3.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.55 58.34% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.47% 6.43% 20.62% 32.08% 27.50% 9.64% 2.80% 0.40% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.22 27.52% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 1.16% 14.59% 21.95% 19.01% 20.98% 19.68% 2.17% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.14 15.75% 99.98%
St Louis 0.00% 0.06% 0.76% 4.80% 12.30% 20.57% 27.90% 32.16% 1.31% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72 5.63% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.24% 1.98% 7.58% 19.11% 31.99% 33.74% 4.80% 0.51% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.04 2.23% 99.95%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.17% 0.89% 5.10% 53.54% 27.10% 9.70% 3.29% 0.19% 0.00% 9.50 0.00% 86.82%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.38% 2.24% 22.33% 36.13% 23.53% 14.40% 0.89% 0.00% 10.27 0.00% 61.18%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.26% 4.92% 20.97% 39.93% 23.32% 8.53% 2.05% 11.15 0.00% 26.17%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 10.03% 13.32% 21.09% 43.28% 9.44% 2.13% 11.33 0.00% 24.06%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 1.35% 4.05% 9.99% 38.48% 45.63% 13.22 0.00% 1.85%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 1.62% 5.72% 42.47% 50.18% 13.41 0.00% 0.02%
|
| LIBob |
02-20-2020 02:33 PM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/19:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 99.60% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.40% 59.37% 37.98% 2.03% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.42 99.78% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 38.61% 40.05% 17.39% 2.83% 0.82% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.88 96.05% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.49% 18.60% 42.09% 20.37% 9.28% 5.54% 2.62% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 62.18% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 16.91% 26.18% 20.53% 17.61% 14.45% 2.74% 0.80% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.96 17.68% 99.98%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.04% 1.32% 9.44% 24.10% 30.06% 20.60% 10.52% 3.44% 0.48% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.07 10.80% 99.99%
St Louis 0.00% 0.08% 0.95% 8.47% 15.22% 19.68% 24.67% 27.73% 2.92% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.55 9.50% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.33% 3.66% 10.86% 18.44% 26.12% 26.86% 12.58% 1.05% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.03 4.00% 99.91%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 1.01% 4.66% 15.10% 61.18% 15.04% 2.61% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 8.92 0.00% 97.22%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.15% 0.53% 1.79% 8.94% 47.11% 25.59% 15.34% 0.51% 0.00% 10.43 0.00% 58.56%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.78% 7.44% 15.92% 27.30% 44.52% 3.84% 0.20% 11.20 0.00% 24.14%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.74% 19.13% 41.21% 26.97% 9.51% 2.32% 11.32 0.00% 19.99%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 5.36% 47.80% 45.25% 13.37 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.20% 1.58% 7.63% 38.34% 52.23% 13.41 0.00% 0.22%
|
Thanks. I was flatlining.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
| LIBob |
02-23-2020 12:13 PM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/22:
There is a greater probability that VCU will have to play on Wednesday than UD falling to the #2 seed. What a time to be alive!!
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 99.60% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.40% 59.37% 37.98% 2.03% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.42 99.78% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 38.61% 40.05% 17.39% 2.83% 0.82% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.88 96.05% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.49% 18.60% 42.09% 20.37% 9.28% 5.54% 2.62% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 62.18% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 16.91% 26.18% 20.53% 17.61% 14.45% 2.74% 0.80% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.96 17.68% 99.98%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.04% 1.32% 9.44% 24.10% 30.06% 20.60% 10.52% 3.44% 0.48% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.07 10.80% 99.99%
St Louis 0.00% 0.08% 0.95% 8.47% 15.22% 19.68% 24.67% 27.73% 2.92% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.55 9.50% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.33% 3.66% 10.86% 18.44% 26.12% 26.86% 12.58% 1.05% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.03 4.00% 99.91%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 1.01% 4.66% 15.10% 61.18% 15.04% 2.61% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 8.92 0.00% 97.22%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.15% 0.53% 1.79% 8.94% 47.11% 25.59% 15.34% 0.51% 0.00% 10.43 0.00% 58.56%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.78% 7.44% 15.92% 27.30% 44.52% 3.84% 0.20% 11.20 0.00% 24.14%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.74% 19.13% 41.21% 26.97% 9.51% 2.32% 11.32 0.00% 19.99%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 5.36% 47.80% 45.25% 13.37 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.20% 1.58% 7.63% 38.34% 52.23% 13.41 0.00% 0.22%
|
| Flyerferd |
02-24-2020 09:53 AM |
Really hoping St. Louis hangs onto the app seventh spot. I have a feeling the Atlantic 10 tournament could be very weird
Posted via Mobile Device
|
I'm feeling pretty good about our chances of playing at noon on Friday.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyerferd
(Post 617671)
Really hoping St. Louis hangs onto the app seventh spot. I have a feeling the Atlantic 10 tournament could be very weird
Posted via Mobile Device
|
It's about a 70% chance that they end up 7 or better. They'd have a shot at a double buy from a record standpoint but they get killed with the tiebreakers. |
| MrFlyerFanatic |
02-24-2020 10:35 AM |
If the season ended today
1 Attachment(s)
UD would await the winner of #8 VCU vs #9 GW.
|
| Radar |
02-24-2020 10:36 AM |
LIBob, do you know the "Predict the Score" algorithm???
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
(Post 617680)
UD would await the winner of #8 VCU vs #9 GW.
|
I think I would almost rather have the 3 slot than the 1 slot in this scenario. |
| LI2UD2PA |
02-24-2020 11:10 AM |
Looking to catch a game in Brooklyn with my son, sister and brother all UD alum. My brother is in a wheel chair due to a stroke so we will be looking for specific seating. When will the day and times be announced? Hoping for Friday at noon.
|
| Figgie123 |
02-24-2020 11:31 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by LI2UD2PA
(Post 617691)
Looking to catch a game in Brooklyn with my son, sister and brother all UD alum. My brother is in a wheel chair due to a stroke so we will be looking for specific seating. When will the day and times be announced? Hoping for Friday at noon.
|
The A10 bracket with seeds and times are already up and running.
LIBob's probabilities, based on thousands of runs have UD as a #1 seed at 99.60%. The Figstats probabilities based on all 268,435,456 results have UD as a #1 seed 98.89%. It would require a lot for UD to not get the #1 seed.
With that said, the #1 seed plays Friday at noon, then Saturday at 1pm, and Sunday at 1pm. |
| MrFlyerFanatic |
02-24-2020 11:38 AM |
|
| LIBob |
02-27-2020 10:50 AM |
Probabilities Through games of 2/10:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.00% 61.76% 35.23% 2.76% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.41 99.76% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 36.74% 39.44% 16.55% 5.28% 1.31% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.97 92.72% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.97% 17.77% 43.01% 17.13% 14.36% 6.43% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.47 61.74% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.13% 3.07% 17.62% 40.38% 20.50% 12.84% 4.43% 1.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.39 20.82% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.38% 3.16% 13.75% 19.54% 24.18% 33.08% 5.75% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.87 17.29% 100.00%
Davidson 0.00% 0.03% 1.34% 6.16% 14.18% 29.63% 27.25% 21.12% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.40 7.53% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 3.18% 9.72% 17.93% 42.85% 20.53% 5.52% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.84 0.15% 99.88%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.29% 1.72% 19.46% 45.17% 24.12% 8.79% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19 0.00% 90.84%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 6.06% 23.44% 55.47% 14.28% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 9.80 0.00% 85.03%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.89% 12.63% 29.66% 48.56% 0.26% 0.00% 11.19 0.00% 21.52%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 2.25% 47.15% 48.10% 2.02% 0.00% 11.49 0.00% 2.74%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 59.81% 39.93% 13.40 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.02% 37.91% 60.07% 13.58 0.00% 0.00%
Note: Although Dayton appears as a 100% chance for a number 1 seed, they have not clinched it. 1 of the 100,000 placed them at the #2 seed. |
| Widget |
02-27-2020 11:19 AM |
I'm going to print out 20,000 pages of this and wallpaper my home with it
Posted via Mobile Device
|
| flyerfanatic86 |
02-27-2020 11:46 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by LIBob
(Post 618691)
Probabilities Through games of 2/10:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.00% 61.76% 35.23% 2.76% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.41 99.76% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 36.74% 39.44% 16.55% 5.28% 1.31% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.97 92.72% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.97% 17.77% 43.01% 17.13% 14.36% 6.43% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.47 61.74% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.13% 3.07% 17.62% 40.38% 20.50% 12.84% 4.43% 1.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.39 20.82% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.38% 3.16% 13.75% 19.54% 24.18% 33.08% 5.75% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.87 17.29% 100.00%
Davidson 0.00% 0.03% 1.34% 6.16% 14.18% 29.63% 27.25% 21.12% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.40 7.53% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 3.18% 9.72% 17.93% 42.85% 20.53% 5.52% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.84 0.15% 99.88%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.29% 1.72% 19.46% 45.17% 24.12% 8.79% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19 0.00% 90.84%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 6.06% 23.44% 55.47% 14.28% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 9.80 0.00% 85.03%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.89% 12.63% 29.66% 48.56% 0.26% 0.00% 11.19 0.00% 21.52%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 2.25% 47.15% 48.10% 2.02% 0.00% 11.49 0.00% 2.74%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 59.81% 39.93% 13.40 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.02% 37.91% 60.07% 13.58 0.00% 0.00%
Note: Although Dayton appears as a 100% chance for a number 1 seed, they have not clinched it. 1 of the 100,000 placed them at the #2 seed.
|
The best part is seeing how unlikely it is that we play SLU in the first game |
| Glen Clark |
02-27-2020 12:06 PM |
Am I Right?
So, if these projections hold:
1) Dayton vs 8) VCU / 9) UMass
2) RI vs 7) Davidson / 10) GW
3) Richmond vs 6) St Louis / 11)La Salle / 14)Fordham
4) St Bona vs 5) Duquesne / 12) GM / 13) St Joe's
I like that bracket.
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
:beermug:
|
| longtimefan |
02-27-2020 01:20 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86
(Post 618705)
The best part is seeing how unlikely it is that we play SLU in the first game
|
Agree. I do not want St Louis! |
| SLUFLYER |
02-27-2020 04:46 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by longtimefan
(Post 618716)
Agree. I do not want St Louis!
|
I DO want SLU again. I'd like a third bite at that apple to see if we can put the beatdown on them that they deserve. Yes, they match with us well and have done a GREAT job of taking away some of things that we like to do and do well, but I say bring them on again and let US impose our will...…….and shoot maybe 12-20 from three-point range to boot. |
| Medford |
02-27-2020 05:24 PM |
I actually agree with SLUFLYER, If UD's tournament dreams are locked up, and the only difference is b/w a 1 & a 2 seed, give them the challenge that will prepare them for the bigger stage a week later. Lord knows there will be some tough, physical grind out games to be won, the more practice the better (provided no injuries of course, that will be the biggest take away from Brooklyn)
|
| SLUFLYER |
02-27-2020 05:30 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medford
(Post 618785)
I actually agree with SLUFLYER
|
Bro, you say it like it's against your nature? Or a shockingly recent development? Where's the love? |
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