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Old 11-11-2008, 10:54 AM
The Chef The Chef is offline
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The Chef will become famous soon enoughThe Chef will become famous soon enough
Arrow Predict the Score 08-09? (Gannon exh = Practice)

OK. As another season is upon us, your cogitator in chief is back willing to do his solemn duty, should the masses be willing to accept his servitude.

Are folks interested in participating in another season of the Predict the Score competition?

If you aren't then:

If you are, let this be your official practice thread for the Gannon game. As the Gannon game doesn't count for the Flyers, it won't count for you either, but I will rank the predictions according to the rules. Any additional suggestions and commentary on last year's competition or this year's festivities are also welcomed in this thread.

The rules follow, courtesy of one FlyingArrow:

1. Each game will have a Predict the Score thread. Anyone may start the thread but to make searching easier, please follow the format described here:

* The title should say "Predict the Score: OPPONENT_NAME (QUALIFIER)". The qualifier is optional, but is useful to distinguish between home/away games or between regular season and postseason games. For example, "Predict the Score: Xavier (home)" or "Predict the Score: Temple (A-10 tourney)".

* Use the green arrow as the icon for the mesage, just like the one used for the rules here.

2. To play, post your prediction of the score of a UD game in the appropriate thread before tipoff.

3. Your prediction will be given a Prediction Score based on the result of the game. A lower Prediction Score is better. It is calculated based on the formula below in rule #9. Basically, you get a point for each point off you are from each team's score, two points for each point off you are from the spread, and 1,000 points for getting the winner wrong. So if you miss the winner you will lose (unless everyone else also missed the winner), and getting the spread right is more important than getting the teams' scores right.

4. The ten lowest Prediction Scores for each game earn Season Points, according to the following schedule:

1st place: 50
2nd place: 30
3rd place: 20
4th place: 14
5th place: 12
6th place: 10
7th place: 8
8th place: 6
9th place: 4
10th place: 2

5. For ties, average the Season Points of the various positions involved in the tie. Fractions are rounded up.

6. Scores accumulate until the season is over. Whoever has the most Season Points at the end wins.

7. A Prediction Score of zero is very rare and is to be admired. There are typically only one or two scores of zero per season. However, they earn no bonus is this friendly contest.

8. The Chef is also to be admired for his devotion in keeping score the past few years. Alas, this also earns no bonus in this friendly contest.

9. THE PREDICTION SCORE FORMULA:
PREDICTION_SCORE =
ABS(Pred_UD - Act_UD) + ABS(Pred_Opp - Act_Opp) + 2 * ABS(Pred_Spread - Act_Spread) + 1,000 * (Wrong_Winner)

Definitions:
ABS: Absolute value function
Pred_UD, Pred_Opp, Pred_Spread: Predicted UD score, Opponent score, and Spread, respectively
Act_UD, Act_Opp, Act_Spread: Actual UD score, Opponent score, and Spread, respectively
Wrong_Winner: Equals 1 if the wrong winner was predicted, equals 0 otherwise
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to The Chef For This Totally Excellent Post:
AC91 (11-11-2008), as_4 (11-11-2008)
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