Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
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It's not officially sanctioned or possessing of insider wisdom, or anything, but the projection tool at barttorvik has shown itself to be fairly decent at predicting the field of 68, if not always nailing the placement on the ol' S-curve.
I fiddled with it over the weekend, and I would absolutely go along with "win 2 of those 3 to get back on the bubble, win all 3 to be solidly in." I don't think just winning 1 is enough to make up 20 places... meantime, changing all 3 outcomes on the projection machine slots us in as a rock solid at-large (as high as the final 7 seed, no worse than an 8 seed).
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?...22&team=Dayton [remember to choose "DynamaRank" for best results, I think you also have to do a "Drop" on an extra
Fordham game that showed up as a result of rescheduling]
As it stands, any realistic remainder of outcomes makes us an Autobid or Bust. A 6 game stretch in February is hard to view as much more than a 3-3 breakeven, but if we're going to overperform realistic expectations, that's where the wins will have to come to put us back in the at-large discussion. The next few games and the final 4 games just don't have enough juice even were we to sweep them (in fact, outside of that 6 game key stretch against good opponents, we will lose even more ground if we drop more than 1 or 2).
