Originally Posted by ud2
Yes, to a degree, it is all a crap shoot unless you are playing somebody like Kentucky or Duke, where you have a very good idea of what you will get.
The best you can do is make an educated guess. But, I think you can reduce your risk significantly with some research used to make an educated guess.
Generally speaking, the p5 schools are better, but even there you are only guessing.
Examples of recent UD p5 games, where the p5 school underperformed:
#182 Wake Forest, neutral
#113 Boston College neutral
#166 BC neutral
At #119 USC
#181 USC at UD
At #157 GT
#154 GT at UD
#133 Arkansas at UD
#108 Nebraska neutral
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It doesn't matter if the P5 schools are absolute garbage. The main thing, aside from getting them to actually AGREE to play you, is all that residual RPI runoff you get from those crappy P5 schools playing really really good teams all season long. Sure, you hope they are not a disaster, and USC loss nearly torpedoed our NCAA berth that season, but overall it's a huge win for us in several respects to play P5 teams.