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Thread: Dayton to AAC?
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  #162  
Old 04-07-2017, 03:23 PM
Viperstick Viperstick is offline
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Is the grass greener?

So, I was thinking it would be logical to want to be associated with programs like UCONN, UC, WichSt, Memphis, and Temple. Several people have noted how five years from now the American will be better than the A-10. I decided to look back five years and see where both AAC and A-10 have been. Only problem, the AAC has only been around four years. So, with that I compared. Note, I only used teams currently in the respective conferences. If a team left, I did not include them; if a team arrived, I included them only in those years they were in the respective conference.

Overall RPI (A-10 better)

AAC (2013-2017): 130.81
A-10 (2012-2017): 114.34; (2013-2017): 114.80

Year by year (A-10 better each year)

2017 - AAC: 134.81; A-10: 128.42
2016 - AAC: 121.45; A-10: 116.5
2015 - AAC: 135.54; A-10: 123.28
2014 - AAC: 112.75; A-10: 91

Flagship programs average RPI (comparable)

SMU: 23.25
UC: 29.5
UCONN: 62.5
Memphis: 94.75

VCU: 21.75
UD: 32
Davidson: 62.3
URI: 93.25

Bottom feeder average RPI (A-10 bottom feeders better than AAC)

USF: 262
Tulane: 247.67
ECU: 217.33
UCF: 190.75

Fordham: 213.75
Duquesne: 212.5
SLU: 186.75
GMU: 173.25

Conclusion: while past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future outcomes, one cannot simply say the American is better than the A-10 going forward when the A-10 has been better in the past. The addition of WichSt is a very positive move for the AAC, but the real problem (just like in the A-10) is the anchor of the moribund bottom feeders. The AAC bottom feeders are considerably worse than those of the A-10. For those who would argue that UCF is trending up, note that one of our bottom feeders (SLU) is just a few years removed from national relevance and is likely to trend up. Another perceived A-10 bottom feeder (LaSalle) isn't even in the bottom four of the league over the past four years (avg RPI of 141.5, comparable to AAC up-trender Houston at 131). Additionally, the draw of the AAC is obviously being connected with near-blue blood programs like UCONN & UC, but those programs have expressed ongoing desire to jump to either the ACC or the Big 12. There is also the omnipresent threat of football realignment with schools such as Memphis, Tulsa, and Temple.

A better option would be to form a basketball only conference of the following:

UD
VCU
WichSt
SLU
Richmond
GW
URI
Davidson
Temple (give up football)
UCONN (give up football)
Memphis (give up football)
Tulsa (give up football)
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