Originally Posted by Lowd&ProUD
D'Antoni is dead on. Statistics can be misleading if not properly interpreted, but the stats bear out the fact that the mid-range shot is statistically downright silly, unless unguarded when the shot clock is winding down.
Don't think of the 3 as being worth one more point, but being worth 50% more.
You only have to shoot 33% from behind the arc to equal 50% on 2's.
If a team shoots 45% on 3's, you need to shoot a whopping 67.5% on 2's to match.
As a height challenged player myself, I love how the 3 point shot has made smaller guys who can shoot more valuable. But to me, the 50% difference is just too much. An ideal scenario in my opinion is that the "3" is worth say 25-33% more, not 50% more. But that would require radically altering how the game is scored, so it'll never happen.
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It's not a static system, it's dynamic. The stats assume the system is static.
Assume a guy is guarding you very tight at the 3 point line. You dribble past the 3 point line so the guy turns his back and runs to the front of the rim, then turns around and waits for you there. Since it's such a statistically horrible shot, that's the rational defense. Right?
Have you considered that at the 3 point line, defenders must give more room because they need to be ready to retreat on a drive. On a 15 foot jumper they can be tighter to the shooter because there's less real estate to make up on the way to the rim. And on a layup they will highly contest the shooter. So an UNCONTESTED 15 footer (not every 15 footer that shows up in the statistics) may actually be a very good shot?
If FT's are worth 1.5 points per trip that makes you a 75% shooter on uncontested 15 footers. You only need 50% for the math to work.
People keep quoting stats like they're all equal. It's equivalent to saying "Shaq shoots 50% from the free throw line, so free throws are bad." No, FT's for Shaq are bad. Steph Curry will hit 90%+ of uncontested 15 footers. Steph Curry should NOT drive directly into the teeth of 3 defenders when he can shoot an uncontested 15 footer.