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Thread: Crutcher
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  #76  
Old 02-11-2018, 02:02 PM
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ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
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I made the initial post and am much more bullish on Crutcher now a month+ later.

Crutcher is taking a ton less floaters and taking a ton less deep 3s early in the shot clock. He has progressed massively. On Ball Defense is getting better as well. His assist rate (assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court) is 26.3 for #157 in the country and only slightly behind Scoochie's Junior year assist rate of 27.4 for #143 in the country.

Never thought I would say this, but Crutcher is now playing at somewhere between Scoochie as a sophmore and junior. Yes I said it.

Let's compare Scoochie and Crutcher using individual offensive rating (OTRG) -- "Individual offensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions. In other words, 'How many points is a player likely to generate when he tries?' Takes into account shots (including free throws), turnovers, assists, etc. Think of 100+ solid, 110+ very good, and 120+ amazing (for players involved in at least 20% of possessions, #100 in the country is a rating of about 116).

Scoochie
Freshman All Games = 89.5
Freshman Conference Only = 92.9
Sophomore All = 102.7
Sophomore Conf = 101.7
Junior All = 110.1
Junior Conf = 109.1
Senior All = 113.4
Senior Conf = 115.6 (7th best in conference)

Crutcher
Freshman All = 108.5
Freshman Conference = 119.1 (12th best in conference)

So for entire Freshman season, Crutcher is playing slightly below Scoochie's junior year and materially above Scoochie's sophomore year. In conference, Crutcher is playing better than Schoochie's senior year in conference! Now Crutcher is only being used 18-19% of possessions whereas Scoochie was being used in 21-23% of possessions junior/senior year. It is easier to be more efficient when you are used in less possessions. I forget whether OTRG is adjusted for competition under kenpom, but I believe it is (need to confirm so not for certain).

BTW, Josh at 122.5 for the year; Jordan Davis at 119.5 (but only used 14% of possessions), Trey at 112, Crutcher at 108.5, and Baby D at 105.8. Rest of team is below 100. Good sign that 3/4 of Dayton's top offensive rated players are Freshman and Sophomores (and Trey a Freshman in terms of experience).

Some more detailed explanations on offensive ratings below. I massively simplified above.

https://kenpom.com/blog/help-with-team-page/

https://kenpom.com/blog/individual-stats-primer/

https://cbbstatshelp.com/player-stats/offensive-rating/

http://www.basketballgeek.com/2009/1...-by-play-data/

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
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