Now that the A-10 season has started, these are no longer way too early. Will update every Monday until about the midpoint of the conference schedule, then will update the day after game days.
Probabilities Through games of 1/6:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth 50.00% 23.97% 13.08% 6.99% 3.53% 1.54% 0.58% 0.21% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.99
Davidson 21.66% 24.46% 20.55% 14.57% 9.25% 5.33% 2.30% 1.03% 0.49% 0.20% 0.10% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 3.01
St Louis 13.83% 22.76% 21.94% 16.95% 11.34% 6.58% 3.42% 1.62% 0.82% 0.43% 0.18% 0.09% 0.04% 0.01% 3.41
Dayton 8.55% 14.43% 18.18% 19.51% 15.52% 10.70% 6.17% 3.43% 1.84% 0.90% 0.44% 0.22% 0.09% 0.02% 4.17
George Mason 2.78% 6.65% 11.28% 16.32% 20.32% 17.90% 10.75% 6.26% 3.51% 2.11% 1.19% 0.63% 0.24% 0.08% 5.27
Rhode Island 2.89% 6.33% 10.65% 15.29% 18.25% 16.94% 11.64% 7.42% 4.50% 2.75% 1.65% 0.99% 0.52% 0.18% 5.50
Duquesne 0.12% 0.44% 1.29% 3.00% 5.76% 9.56% 13.41% 13.86% 12.70% 11.13% 9.75% 8.12% 6.39% 4.48% 8.84
St Joseph's PA 0.06% 0.35% 0.90% 2.11% 4.14% 7.85% 12.15% 13.70% 13.49% 12.63% 11.04% 9.16% 7.38% 5.05% 9.20
St Bonaventure 0.07% 0.28% 0.76% 1.70% 3.38% 6.07% 9.38% 11.26% 12.55% 12.42% 12.35% 11.67% 10.14% 7.96% 9.75
G Washington 0.02% 0.14% 0.53% 1.28% 2.88% 5.69% 9.08% 11.30% 12.64% 12.94% 12.61% 11.89% 10.60% 8.42% 9.89
La Salle 0.01% 0.06% 0.26% 0.74% 1.83% 3.88% 6.83% 9.38% 11.25% 12.76% 13.42% 13.77% 13.82% 12.00% 10.48
Massachusetts 0.02% 0.09% 0.38% 0.94% 2.09% 4.02% 6.49% 8.74% 10.61% 12.08% 13.45% 14.38% 14.30% 12.40% 10.51
Richmond 0.01% 0.04% 0.16% 0.43% 1.25% 2.79% 5.23% 7.69% 9.63% 11.49% 13.24% 14.83% 16.79% 16.42% 10.97
Fordham 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.17% 0.45% 1.14% 2.58% 4.10% 5.89% 8.16% 10.57% 14.21% 19.70% 32.99% 12.00
