Originally Posted by ud2
First off, I did not think that my question was poorly worded. Why don't you tell me how my question should have been worded professor?
Second, I just feel like UD is CONTENT to not set their sights higher. I just get this overwhelmingly sense when I look at the schedule every year that complacency permeates the UD athletic department. They are satisfied with the way that things have been for the last 20 years, and they have absolutely no plans to change anything.
Third, the conclusion that I came to regarding 16-14 with the 2 extra buy games vs. 15-15 with a h/h(1 on the road and 1 at home)was:
We go 0-2, then it's a negative.
We go 1-1, then it's a wash.
We go 2-0, then it's a positive, and we could move up as many as 4 seeds.
This seems like a pretty low-risk, high-reward scenario to me.
2017-2018 is the last year that http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html was operational. Ignore the fact that we had a bad year that year and assume that 2017-2018 was one of the years that we got a 7 seed with Archie.
2018, rpi 146, sos 66.
Admittedly this is the best case scenario of beating #22 Loyola of Chicago and #33 MTSU and dropping the 2 worst buy games, Akron and Ohio.
New schedule, drop the 2 worst buy games, Akron and Ohio, replace with h/h with MTSU #33, away, and Loyola of Chicago #22, home.
Win both: rpi 124, sos 42...big positive...we get a 22 point rpi boost. How much is a 22 point rpi boost worth? Maybe 3-4 seed lines? Is it reasonable to go from a 7 seed to a 3 or 4 seed in that scenario?
http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Dayton.html
We have a much better chance of regularly reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond under this scenario.
Win at home and lose on road: rpi 145 sos 43...basically a wash in terms of rpi, sos did improve 23 spots though.
Lose both: rpi 165 sos 43...it is a negative, 23 spot improvement in sos though.
And I know that everything is NET now, but rpi is the best I could do.
There is no www.netforecast.com website.
And we get 2 q1 wins. And we likely get a big NET boost.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.
Please tell me where I went wrong with this post.
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First, I already answered why it's poorly worded: you said:
"Do you really think that playing 2 extra buy games vs. playing 2 h/h games(1 home and 1 away)is that much of a positive difference that it is the difference between a NCAAT at-large bid and no at-large bid?"
That implies I know the outcome ex-ante. Your question is poorly worded because you said "is" that much of a difference. The proper question is phrased in probabilistic terms such as "on average" or "typically" or "more often than not" or "worth the risk."
Second, I can't speak to how you or the UD administration "feels," either now or 20 years ago.
Third, you're conveniently ignoring my point because it's inconvenient to your argument: my entire point is that you are considering only those 2 games in a vacuum instead of the entire system, and ignoring probabilities.
"We go 0-2, then it's a negative.
We go 1-1, then it's a wash.
We go 2-0, then it's a positive, and we could move up as many as 4 seeds."
What is the PROBABILITY we go 2-0, 1-1, and 0-2? If it's 5% / 25% / 70%, then you have improperly presented your argument by deceptively presenting the 3 options in a way that makes it seem like it's 33% / 33% / 33% so (obviously) let's go for it.
But besides the probabilities of the 2 games in a vacuum, what is the PROBABILITY we go 1-1 (a push in your analysis), but, the extra road miles causes us to lose another highly winnable game at home that becomes a quad 4 loss on our resume--an excellent excuse for the committee to keep us out? These are not independent draws, mein freund. You must look at the entire system.
You're the guy who says "if my employee works 40 hours per week and makes 1 mistake, then I'll make him work 80 hours per week and expect 2 mistakes." Doesn't work that way. It's non-linear.
