Originally Posted by Chris R
Id contend they probably had not seen this many good looks before today, hence their lower season %.
Flyers scored 70pts today. Should be plenty to win at home vs any Ivy League team. Our defense was non-existent start to finish. Even when we made a run in the 2nd half, it was because Penn had 2 straight point blank layups that literally crawled off the rim. It wasnt because we slowed them down -- they just barfed bunnies.
Score should have been 70-60 Flyers, not 78-70 Penn. We miss two straight breakaway layups, Penn makes a 3 and a 2 on return trips down court. Nine point swing in 45 seconds. We turn ball over in backcourt on a pick-pocket....floater 2 seconds later for Penn deuce. Four point swing. DD travels in backcourt. Another swing.
Better team won. Better program didnt, but better team did. You let a team shoot .713% EFG and you really have no prayer. Its amazing we kept it as close as we did.
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Chris, you are a stats guy. All the data says 3 point defense is marginally more impactful than FT defense — yes than FT defense which is a true stat. “Open looks,” “soft zome defense,” and “weak close outs” may impact an offensive’s team 3 point shooting marginally. But let’s not promote the world is flat thinking which is what 3 point shooting % defense is. Defenses can materially impact the number of 3s their opponents take, but only very marginally impact their % made; even with open looks.
The thread is correct, Dayton scored 1.04 points per possession versus Penn which is Dayton’s avesrage for the year and should be enough for a win versus Penn at home. But Dayton gave up 1.16 points per possession, way above the 1.00 points per possession season average. Dayton had a higher percentage of offensive rebounds, less turnovers, a better 2 point percentage, and made 7 more 2 point shots. Lost the FT battle, but inflated in the last minutes. Penn shot out of their mind from 3.
Last 40 games (this season and last season), Penn has shot over 40% from 3 in 6 games or 15% of games including over 50% in 2 games or 5% of games.
Penn likely loses if they shoot 45% from 3 which would be there 4th best shooting from 3 in the last 40 games.
Let’s not overreact to 3 point shooting by opponents. High variance game by game which has very little to do with Dayton’s defense.
https://kenpom.com/blog/defense-has-...-opponents-3p/
https://kenpom.com/blog/the-3point-line-is-a-lottery/
https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-d...nt-percentage/
https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defen...-opponents-3p/
https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-d...oint-attempts/
