For those who think the American may get raided in the future, can you explain by whom? The Big 12 seems to be set against expanding. Even if it did, BYU and Air Force/CSU are just as likely to be added as any American school.
Given ND's arrangement with the ACC, getting to 16 isn't important. If the B10, SEC, or P12 expand it'll be the B12 they raid, not the American. It is more likely that the American expands for football than gets raided, to truly become "Power 6" as they desire. For example by re-inviting BSU/SDSU and other Western schools to make a West division. They could even really think out of box and tempt Gonzaga to leave.
The A10 is dead. To me this was proven by the decision not to expand to the Midwest after losing Butler. Wichita State was a glaringly obvious choice but was ignored and eventually lost. Dayton is on an island and
SLU isn't even on the map, yet no Midwest additions were made despite the availability of schools at least on par with Davidson and George Mason.
UMass, VCU, Dayton, Saint Louis and
Richmond are all attractive to various conferences that may expand in the future. Given the A10's decision to limit additions to the East coast, replacements for these schools should they depart are few and far between. Comparing the future outlook of the A10 and American is apples and oranges. The American's is bright and the A10's dim. We must accept this fact.