I am a fan of sabermetrics. In this case, I think there are some holes. I think KenPom used aggregate to make his arguments instead of refining deeper.
The claim that an open 3 is similar to a free throw made me wonder.
Average free throw percentage in NCAA is 69%
Average 3 point percentage is below 35%.
That is half the rate of a free throw, yet the arc is a bit over 5 feet away.
That seems like a wide disparity given only 5 feet.
Players concentrate on 3 point shots and dunks to a point that the free throw percentage have dropped over the years. If they work so much on the 3 ball, shouldn't the average 3 point shot percentage be higher?
What causes those percentage to halve?
1. I believe defense. As Chris pointed out the stats are not broken down between contested and uncontested. If broken apart, you would see an open 3 with feet planted, more square to basket etc... is a better shot.
2. The shot clock plays defense. Included in those numbers are desperation 3s that are launched at the end of the shot clock. UD has had a more than a few this year.
3. The quality of shooters. Again, aggregate does not tell the story. BROB is lumped in with Kendall Pollard and
Chris Wright. Bad shooters drag down the percentage.
KenPom said "A good 3 point offense will beat a good 3 point defense". What about a good 3 point offense and a bad 3 point defense? That is what we saw yesterday. Yes, teams will miss wide open 3s, but they will make a higher percentage if left open. As someone else posted Svoboda has missed a few of them this year.
Yesterday the UD defense played poor zone and man to man. They gave up open 3s, layups and more. Penn sliced the defense like Swiss cheese. It is obvious, they studied the film and found the weaknesses.
You can chalk the game up to a fluke hot shooting team, but this team has struggled defensively all year. The zone might have worked for a while due to the lack of film and element of surprise, but now it is exposed and the man to man is awful. The freshman have not learned how to play good college defense yet. Maybe they will get better as the season progresses
