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[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by LIBob Probabilities Through games of 2/20: Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed VA Commonwealth 81.26% 18.15% 0.49% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.19 Davidson 18.43% 49.57% 29.11% 2.47% 0.37% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17 Dayton 0.24% 29.68% 37.47% 23.05% 6.86% 1.97% 0.60% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.16 George Mason 0.05% 1.85% 21.84% 30.99% 21.68% 14.80% 8.32% 0.44% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.52 St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.18% 2.00% 18.34% 30.65% 26.53% 17.69% 4.07% 0.53% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.53 St Louis 0.01% 0.44% 5.65% 15.20% 22.46% 28.53% 21.96% 4.73% 0.95% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.63 Duquesne 0.00% 0.13% 3.44% 9.80% 17.64% 25.56% 32.86% 8.47% 2.06% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.08 Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 1.08% 8.30% 38.22% 29.74% 13.50% 5.43% 2.82% 0.65% 0.12% 8.77 La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.18% 1.39% 9.23% 30.04% 36.63% 14.08% 5.94% 2.28% 0.17% 0.00% 8.80 Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% 0.81% 4.39% 11.97% 37.78% 34.45% 8.24% 2.06% 0.19% 10.34 St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 8.54% 14.64% 23.09% 18.66% 20.80% 9.98% 4.11% 10.74 G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.89% 2.78% 8.07% 24.22% 37.24% 22.95% 3.82% 11.78 Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.27% 1.54% 8.52% 22.47% 41.35% 25.78% 12.80 Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.40% 1.84% 2.78% 6.15% 22.83% 65.99% 13.47

Wow, we're at 90% probability to finish in the top 4? I wouldn't have thought it would be that high with still 5 games to go and just a one game lead on SLU, Dukes and St.B.

I've not analyzed enough of the remaining schedule to see what's driving that, perhaps some head to head matchups between those 5 and 6 loss teams that is a big hurdle for those teams to climb the standings (summary, they're all going to lose another game or two, most likely)

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.