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Old 12-20-2018, 09:32 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
This week I had the idea to show final KenPom rankings of A10 teams over the past few years in a heatmap. The conference has declined rather steadily in recent years and the chart helps visualize how total the regression is. You can see the top, middle, and bottom segments of the conference getting worse. If you’re only looking at NCAA bids over the same timeframe, the numbers aren’t nearly as alarming. Charting the KenPom ranks of each team in conference paints the picture in a way that tournament bids or overall conference rank do not.

First, the A10. Yikes. Davidson stealing a third bid for the conference papered over a very bad 2018 season that isn’t being discussed enough. The decline is related to a few things – the Butler, Xavier, and Temple departures hurt, but those were six years ago. Traditionally strong programs like Saint Louis, UMass, and George Washington have gone into the tank recently. The conference has seen several strong coaches leave in recent years (Will Wade, Archie Miller, Mike Lonergan) and other unsuccessful ones get replaced. Things came to a head this past season as Dayton, VCU, and St. Joe’s all finished outside the KenPom top 100 for the first time since they’ve all been in the conference. There’s concern that this is the new normal, as this year doesn’t project to be good either. You might find a ray of hope in the fact that there’s not a ton of senior talent across the conference (Otis Livingston, Javon Bess, and Josh Cunningham are the senior stars on what figure to be contenders) so the A10 may have a renaissance in the 2019-2020 season.

https://giantkiller.co/2018/08/13/vi...by-conference/
Great analysis. Data & facts have a way of demonstrating reality. No matter how well the program rebounds over the next few years, the A-10 appears to be in a steady state of decline. (Comment to be rescinded if there is a longer sample going back that demonstrates that). If that is the new reality, then the programs aspirations are the be the best of mediocre league. Hey, at least we have a nice arena.
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