UDPride Discussion Forums    
     

Go Back   UDPride Discussion Forums

» Log in
User Name:

Password:

Not a member yet?
Register Now!
» Advertisement
View Single Post
  #95  
Old 05-02-2019, 10:21 AM
ud2's Avatar
ud2 ud2 is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,423
Thanks: 6,783
Thanked 6,122 Times in 4,168 Posts
ud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
So you're saying it's ME who is oversimplifying the challenges of scheduling?


In answer to your poorly worded question: maybe. You asked if it IS the difference. Well, no, not if we win both. But that's not how statistics works.



Do I think it is likely to be the difference? Yes, there is a reasonable likelihood it will be the difference. But it depends on: how healthy we are, how much the travel wears on the guys, how much the missed class wears on the guys (later nights studying to catch up), how likely the road game is to be won (Duke or Marquette?), the timing of where the games fall on the schedule, etc.


Winning 2 buy games at home allow the guys to keep their legs and to focus their energy on the few higher-profile games on the schedule. Assuming that gives us a greater chance to win those particular games (I think it does), it builds a lighter (but successful) resume that can get us in as a 10 seed. Or, we put higher pressure on the guys to play big names much more frequently where -- if we win -- we can show we're good enough to be a 4 seed as the confidence carries through the whole season.



2015-16: we go 25-7 and 14-4, lose to Syracuse in the tourney (KP injured).
Name / good non-con wins: Alabama, William & Mary (20-11 that year), Chatanooga (29-5), Iowa (tournament), Vandy, Arkansas

Name losses: _avier,



Which 2 games do we replace?

SE Missouri State - first game of the year
North Florida - first game back from exempt tournament, played Vandy 4 days later on the road
Furman - first game after Vandy
Miami, OH - after Furman but Arkansas is the next game
Conference schedule starts


So let's drop out North Florida, who went 22-11 that year. Add in Marquette on the road. And we'll drop Miami, OH and drop in Miami, FL.



So we travel back from getting our arses handed to us by _avier on TV, and get geared up for Marquette back on the road. At this point in the season we're 5-1. Marquette went 20-13 that year. Let's say our woes continue and we lose, making us 5-2. Welcome home gents, get on the plane because you're headed to Vandy on a 2-game losing streak in 3 days. Instead of winning by 5 at Vandy we lose. Chattanooga next game - lose (we lost the game in reality so it's not farfetched). Now we're 5-4. Catch our breath against Furman then Miami, FL comes to town 2 days later, and we're 6-5 now because we are playing on short rest. Better get your legs because now you're playing Arkansas. Let's say we still win that one.


Now, instead of going into conference play at 10-2 we're 7-5. If we still pull off 14-4 in conference plus 1-1 in the conference tournament as we did that year, that makes us 22-10. Instead of a 7 seed we're . . . ?? No more win on the road at #21 Vandy and all the sudden we're hanging our hat on an early season win over Iowa because Arkansas and Alabama were entirely mediocre. Good chance that's not good enough.



Or, we could beat Alabama, W&M, Chattanooga, Iowa, Vandy, Arkansas, Marquette, and Miami FL, not to mention VCU in our only meeting (25-11), GW (28-10), St. Bonny on the road (22-9) and look like a top 15 team.
First off, I did not think that my question was poorly worded. Why don't you tell me how my question should have been worded professor?

Second, I just feel like UD is CONTENT to not set their sights higher. I just get this overwhelmingly sense when I look at the schedule every year that complacency permeates the UD athletic department. They are satisfied with the way that things have been for the last 20 years, and they have absolutely no plans to change anything.

Third, the conclusion that I came to regarding 16-14 with the 2 extra buy games vs. 15-15 with a h/h(1 on the road and 1 at home)was:
We go 0-2, then it's a negative.
We go 1-1, then it's a wash.
We go 2-0, then it's a positive, and we could move up as many as 4 seeds.

This seems like a pretty low-risk, high-reward scenario to me.

2017-2018 is the last year that http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html was operational. Ignore the fact that we had a bad year that year and assume that 2017-2018 was one of the years that we got a 7 seed with Archie.

2018, rpi 146, sos 66.

Admittedly this is the best case scenario of beating #22 Loyola of Chicago and #33 MTSU and dropping the 2 worst buy games, Akron and Ohio.

New schedule, drop the 2 worst buy games, Akron and Ohio, replace with h/h with MTSU #33, away, and Loyola of Chicago #22, home.

Win both: rpi 124, sos 42...big positive...we get a 22 point rpi boost. How much is a 22 point rpi boost worth? Maybe 3-4 seed lines? Is it reasonable to go from a 7 seed to a 3 or 4 seed in that scenario?


http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Dayton.html


We have a much better chance of regularly reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond under this scenario.

Win at home and lose on road: rpi 145 sos 43...basically a wash in terms of rpi, sos did improve 23 spots though.

Lose both: rpi 165 sos 43...it is a negative, 23 spot improvement in sos though.

And I know that everything is NET now, but rpi is the best I could do.

There is no www.netforecast.com website.

And we get 2 q1 wins. And we likely get a big NET boost.


Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.

Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.


Please tell me where I went wrong with this post.

Last edited by ud2; 05-02-2019 at 10:50 AM..
Reply With Quote
 
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.1

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Advertisement System V2.6 By   Branden

     
 
Copyright 1996-2012 UDPride.com. All Rights Reserved.