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  #96  
Old 11-13-2017, 05:50 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
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Kenpom preseason predictions versus end of season actuals have been overall extremely accurate (for example generally underranked preseason Dayton under Archie but not by much).. Much more accurate than preseason media and coaches polls cited above (with the exception of the AP top 25 which has been very accurate). When I see the attacks on kenpom, reminds of the myths in other threads such as free throw shooting and field goal shooting were better in 60s and 70s. Facts says free throw shooting constant last 50 years at 69%. Fundamentals have not degraded.

Hofstra will be about the same +/- 20 spots from preseason kenpom and so will Ball State at end of year. Both have same coach as last year and largely similar rosters so easier to predict.

Half of all D1 teams were predicted within 1 win preseason of their actual result. Just 2 power 5 teams deviated more than 5 wins from preseason predictions! See https://kenpom.com/blog/a-look-back-on-preseason

Dayton Kenpom forecasts last 3 years have been on average within 5 spots of final ranking with more than 350+ teams: preseason 2017 ranking 37, actual end of season ranking 39; 2016 preseason 64, actual 59; 2015 preseason 50 and actual 42. Pretty accurate ... With a new coach and the 6th fewest returning minutes in D1 basketball, Dayton will have a higher variance than the last years; at least I hope so as preseason ranking 103 with 16-12 record (10-8 conference). Does not predict games 2 and 3 of Charleston as opponents unknown.

Artificial intelligence has arrived, dismiss it at your own peril.

Sorry for typos, writing on mobile during flight.


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Last edited by ruechalgrin; 11-13-2017 at 06:09 PM..
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2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to ruechalgrin For This Totally Excellent Post:
Bigtimeflyersguy (11-14-2017), Gazoo (11-14-2017)
 
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