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  #69  
Old 08-08-2018, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
It's getting more and more interesting reading these resume's. We spoke of the influence of SOS that appears to not be a criteria. Also one has to wonder how these folks weigh the different Conferences in strength.

Is a 12-6 record in a one-bid conference and a 4th place finish, better than a .500 record or worse in a three-bid conference? Who knows. But more importantly what do these projectionists think? How much do they weigh last years results vs the returnees impact and potential?

According to the review, Western Kentucky at #97 loses quite a bit from a nice season of 27-11 and 3rd in Conf USA. But a gaggle of newcomers is touted to shore up only a good pair of returning guards. Then they pour cold water on the scene by predicting an NIT team of last year becomes a CBI team this coming season.

If we are in this count down it's going to be very interesting how they rationalize it. I still believe through #97 we are in there somewhere.
This is pure speculation on my part but I think for the "non power" conferences they put a lot of weight on what the proven returning production is along with transfers and build out from that

It's rare that a team in a league like the A10, C-USA, Mountain West, etc is going to bring a freshman that's on paper highly rated by the recruiting services or regarded enough that's gonna be some someone that easily projects to make a big impact. Kellan Grady at Davidson for instance was a four star guy outside the top 100 but I don't think any previews I saw predicted him having the kind of year he did.

If you're counting on freshman in a league like the A10 that's not a recipe for success

It's tough to project which guy is gonna make the leap like Trey Landers did and which guy is the next John Crosby especially when they don't have big recruiting pedigree behind them. It's safer to just default to what the returning production is and what you can infer off of transfers

That said I think there are instances where the name of the front of jersey makes a difference. I think we saw that last year with some of the more favorable projections Dayton had. Someone like Belmont who's been pretty consistently near the top of the OVC I think would get the benefit of doubt over say Morehead State with areas that are question marks
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