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  #119  
Old 10-04-2010, 09:46 PM
Fudd Fudd is offline
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Shocka, my argument about the significance of history and "program level" are not directed at saying that the future will be a straight line extrapolation based on past results. If you look at the pattern of coaches who had to go through some rebuild/retooling of the program (Purnell is a great example for us), look at how his performance in the A10 steadily improved over time.

BG has a different profile, where he had a good class of waleskowski and friends in the first year, but was forced to go with freshmen in his 2nd year (and did quite well considering), and then lost Meacham in the 3rd year, IMO hurting us by creating a mini-crisis at pg. So you can track our performance downward for those 2 years. Then, as he got his recruits in place as juniors, we began the upward trend to where we are today.

So history shows us that the coach can move the needle a little bit each year. It's just not realistic for us to go from steady poor performance to steady awesome performance. That is my point. Progress is tempered with the momentum of the program. Inertia has it's effect.

Look at the curves that show up in the year-to-year performance of all of our coaches over the last 35 years. There is continuity, not much discontinuity.

How far could Purnell have taken us if he stayed? It's hard to say, but I suspect he knew that he did not have much below the Waleskowski class.

So now here we are with BG, almost at the same point where Purnell left for Clemson. Do you think the cupboard will be bare if BG goes soon? I tend to suspect that will not happen with BG. I could be wrong, but I think he is a more consistant recruiter than Purnell. Hopefully, if he were to leave, he would give us a chance for continuity into the next hire. It would be great if we could promote from within or get a guy who runs the same system.

You are free to make your predictions and put your expectations where you want. I look at history and say that so far BG has shown a very similar pattern of growth to what Purnell did. The rate of improvement will slow the better we get. My goal is for UD to get to the NCAA 4-5 times per decade right now (With most of the other years NIT). If we do that, we should be considered a top A10 power. I base that off of the history of the A10. That is what the "superpower" A10 teams have done historically. Once we do that for a 10 year period, I think we can talk about what will get us to the next level.

I think the key to doing that is either keeping BG or seamlessly keeping the momentum with a qualified coach replacement from within or a replacement who has a very similar style. Hopefully we have the guy developing from within.

I never deny that A10 performance is important, but I judge the coach on total performance and mostly post season success. The laser beam focus on A10 performance is not for me. I'm looking at the bigger picture.

NCAA tournament > A10 tournament

Last edited by Fudd; 10-05-2010 at 08:17 AM..
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