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  #1  
Old 01-16-2020, 02:17 AM
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Comparison to St Joe's run/season

Weve gotten by one traditionally tough opponent. Dukes and Richmond and St Lou round up the top tier.

On an overall note, to me this is shaping up to be a Jameer Nelson St Joes type of season. I think they went 28 -4 or something like that. I believe a 1 seed. Lost in Final 4.

Anyone else feel like we may just lose 3 or 4 games?
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  #2  
Old 01-16-2020, 02:22 AM
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Looking at wikipedia's. Think they lost in Elite 8.
To OKLAHOMA State.

Were 30 -1. Before losing to OSU.

Jameer Nelson. College Player of the Year.
Delonte West 18 per game
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Old 01-16-2020, 03:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
Looking at wikipedia's. Think they lost in Elite 8.
To OKLAHOMA State.

Were 30 -1. Before losing to OSU.

Jameer Nelson. College Player of the Year.
Delonte West 18 per game
Their only loss was the first round of A10 tournament to Xavier.
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Old 01-16-2020, 08:11 AM
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jameer Nelson and Delonte West were both 1st round
NBA draft picks...

the year before that, they were good also - 23-7,
with 2 of those losses being against UD... one of
their wins that year was at Gonzaga...
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Old 01-16-2020, 08:35 AM
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They also hung a banner there for being a 1 seed. I'm a big proponent of banners and promoting your history and success. But please, let's never do that should we ever get a 1.
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Old 01-16-2020, 08:57 AM
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If we only lose two games this season, it means there are some better banners that will represent our outstanding season.
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  #7  
Old 01-16-2020, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Their only loss was the first round of A10 tournament to Xavier.
This was at UD Arena, correct?
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Old 01-16-2020, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
This was at UD Arena, correct?
Yes. They were blown out by Xavier, who went on to defeat Flyers in tourney finals, from the opening tap.
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  #9  
Old 01-16-2020, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 View Post
They also hung a banner there for being a 1 seed. I'm a big proponent of banners and promoting your history and success. But please, let's never do that should we ever get a 1.
Speaking of banners, what ever happened to ours? And I don't just mean anecdotally, where are the physical banners that used to hang in the Fieldhouse / Arena. Would love to see them hang somewhere in the concourses / Flight Deck, etc. Mix in some history with the new Arena.
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Old 01-16-2020, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by steverino015 View Post
jameer Nelson and Delonte West were both 1st round
NBA draft picks...

the year before that, they were good also - 23-7,
with 2 of those losses being against UD... one of
their wins that year was at Gonzaga...
Yep.Going to take Crutcher to have far more games similar to his VCU effort and a much much better Chatman to get that far, imo....
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  #11  
Old 01-16-2020, 11:45 AM
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If chase were still around and viable I'd believe more fully in the main idea here.

On the other hand I believe it's very possible we end up with only 4 losses going into the A10
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  #12  
Old 01-16-2020, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
Speaking of banners, what ever happened to ours? And I don't just mean anecdotally, where are the physical banners that used to hang in the Fieldhouse / Arena. Would love to see them hang somewhere in the concourses / Flight Deck, etc. Mix in some history with the new Arena.
Do you mean the large felt ones? They sold them years ago, because I own one of them.
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Old 01-16-2020, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Their only loss was the first round of A10 tournament to Xavier.
Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
This was at UD Arena, correct?
Originally Posted by Southwest View Post
Yes. They were blown out by Xavier, who went on to defeat Flyers in tourney finals, from the opening tap.
2004 A10 Tourney. That was before the double bye. Flyers 1 seed from the west. Joes the 1 seed from the east. Joes lost by 20 to X. Noon game on Thursday. That was also before the finals were moved from Saturday to Sunday.
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Old 01-16-2020, 03:33 PM
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and then there is the debate,
do you want the team you root for to win
the conference tournament, 3 games potentially
in 3 days....

or, would you not mind if they lose
in the conference tournament and
are rested for the NCAA games...

you can always look back at the incredible
NC State run with Valvano, where if
they had NOT won the ACC tournament,
they probably would not of even made it...

then they keep winning, and winning
NCAA champions... from unranked to
national champions...

I am of the opinion, keep winning,
get hot... make this a magical season...
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Old 01-16-2020, 03:41 PM
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UD hasn't won the A-10 championship outside of UD arena ever; heck I'm not sure if they've ever won a conference tournament championship outside of UD arena in any league. Give me an A-10 title then I'll worry about the NCAA championship.
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Old 01-16-2020, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by steverino015 View Post
and then there is the debate,
do you want the team you root for to win
the conference tournament, 3 games potentially
in 3 days....

or, would you not mind if they lose
in the conference tournament and
are rested for the NCAA games...

you can always look back at the incredible
NC State run with Valvano, where if
they had NOT won the ACC tournament,
they probably would not of even made it...

then they keep winning, and winning
NCAA champions... from unranked to
national champions...

I am of the opinion, keep winning,
get hot... make this a magical season...
My guess, don't have time or desire to research it, is that you can find enough data to support either platform/path and that there's not ANY direct or significant data that separates one from the other.

These kids are well conditioned. Playing three games in 3 days the weekend before and then resting for 4 or 5 days vs playing 1 game and resting for 6 or 7 days is not significant (unless dealing with a short term injury). I think if they knew their opponent with that much preparation, that's an advantage, but everybody finds out their next opponent on Sunday night.
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Old 01-16-2020, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
UD hasn't won the A-10 championship outside of UD arena ever; heck I'm not sure if they've ever won a conference tournament championship outside of UD arena in any league. Give me an A-10 title then I'll worry about the NCAA championship.
I couldn't care less about winning A10 championship when we have what amounts to a possible NCAA championship team. Rarely does the best team in a multi-bid conference win their conference tournament. I believe there are many reasons for that and one being that everyone, including the team that is a lock for a high seeding is better off if it doesn't happen. The conference is certainly better off if they get team who's on the outside looking in to win the championship.

I'd be happy if the Flyers win their first A10 tournament game and then bow out because I believe playing all the way to Sunday is a disadvantage come the following Thursday or Friday. Conference championships and the bid that comes along with it are for teams that aren't sure.

It's basically the same thing that happens in week 17 in the NFL, teams that are locks are more concerned with going into the NCAA tournament healthy and fresh than they are about winning the conference tournament.

We right now have a normal 5 game stretch where we realize it's going to take a lot of hard work to win all 5.

How much harder would that be to do it in 8 to 10 days against teams that win along with you in the conference tournament plus two NCAA caliber teams? I want the easy road and if that means dropping down one seed, then that's what I want.

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Old 01-16-2020, 04:11 PM
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I’d be very happy with a conference championship. Maybe we should hold off on the National championship talk until we beat someone in the top 25
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Old 01-16-2020, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
I’d be very happy with a conference championship. Maybe we should hold off on the National championship talk until we beat someone in the top 25
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Yeah, well, since we've only had one opportunity and lost in OT, I can't hold that against us. This team is one of the best in college basketball this year, if you can't see that just because of our schedule, it's time to visit an optometrist. And if you want to argue that Colorado was another chance, I'd say they weren't ranked when we played them and they wouldn't be ranked had we beat them.

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Old 01-16-2020, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Their only loss was the first round of A10 tournament to Xavier.

Actually it was in the second round/quarterfinals. Zavier beat St Bonnie in the first round.
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Old 01-16-2020, 04:29 PM
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If they were to win the A-10, then proceed to win their first NCAA game (and hopefully beyond)


That would mean they would play 5 games (3 A-10 and 2 NCAA) in a 9 or 10 game stretch. In addition to that, they would have 5 days off prior to their 1st game in the A10 and another 4-5 days off prior to their sweet 16 matchup (yes please). So potentially they'd have 5 games over a 20 day stretch. Doesn't sound too taxing to 20ish year old young men in top physical condition. Addtionally, if this team is as good as you say (national title contender) than that means that at least 2 of those games (1st in the A10 and 1st in the NCAA) will be against a LaSalle level team or worse.


This isn't like the 6 man squad that had to play 3 games in the A10 tournament, then turn around and play mid week against Boise St, then on to Columbus to play Providence and Oklahoma and was clearly gassed. This team has more depth than that squad and won't have the mid-week first 4 game thrown into the mix. Plus this team is more talented.


Give me as much of this squad as possible; I'm holding out hope for 28 game win streak to close out the year (or whatever it would take), cause given the history of the 1 seed in the A-10 tournament and the craziness that is March, there is the chance that it could always end thud-thud and we're left feeling deflated.
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Old 01-16-2020, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
If they were to win the A-10, then proceed to win their first NCAA game (and hopefully beyond)


That would mean they would play 5 games (3 A-10 and 2 NCAA) in a 9 or 10 game stretch. In addition to that, they would have 5 days off prior to their 1st game in the A10 and another 4-5 days off prior to their sweet 16 matchup (yes please). So potentially they'd have 5 games over a 20 day stretch. Doesn't sound too taxing to 20ish year old young men in top physical condition. Addtionally, if this team is as good as you say (national title contender) than that means that at least 2 of those games (1st in the A10 and 1st in the NCAA) will be against a LaSalle level team or worse.


This isn't like the 6 man squad that had to play 3 games in the A10 tournament, then turn around and play mid week against Boise St, then on to Columbus to play Providence and Oklahoma and was clearly gassed. This team has more depth than that squad and won't have the mid-week first 4 game thrown into the mix. Plus this team is more talented.


Give me as much of this squad as possible; I'm holding out hope for 28 game win streak to close out the year (or whatever it would take), cause given the history of the 1 seed in the A-10 tournament and the craziness that is March, there is the chance that it could always end thud-thud and we're left feeling deflated.
Yeah, if they win those 5 initial games, they would be well rested for sweet 16, only having to play 2 games a week, 2 days apart the rest of the way. It's those 5 games to get to sweet 16 that I worry about. To me A10 tournament championship only means something when you need to get an auto-bid. Win the A10 regular season, take it easy through the conference tournament and be fresh and healthy for the big dance.
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Old 01-16-2020, 05:08 PM
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Can we find a way to beat Saint Louis first?
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Old 01-16-2020, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Can we find a way to beat Saint Louis first?
I'm sure on Monday, you would've said "Can't we beat VCU first?".
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Old 01-16-2020, 05:18 PM
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Ask UConn how it affected them...they won five games in five days to win the BE in 2011 and then won six games to win the National Title.
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Old 01-16-2020, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Ask UConn how it affected them...they won five games in five days to win the BE in 2011 and then won six games to win the National Title.
Yeah, the exception, not the rule. Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round of the NFL draft, I don't understand why all teams don't wait until the 6th round to find their QB.

BTW, 3 years later UConn lost to Louisville in the final game of BE tourney and then went on to win 6 games in a row for National Title.

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Old 01-16-2020, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
UD hasn't won the A-10 championship outside of UD arena ever; heck I'm not sure if they've ever won a conference tournament championship outside of UD arena in any league. Give me an A-10 title then I'll worry about the NCAA championship.
A - f'n - men.
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Old 01-16-2020, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Ask UConn how it affected them...they won five games in five days to win the BE in 2011 and then won six games to win the National Title.

And Zavier won four games in four days to win the A-10 Tournament in 2004, and made it to the Elite Eight, where they lost to Duke by three.
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Old 01-17-2020, 07:12 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Actually it was in the second round/quarterfinals. Zavier beat St Bonnie in the first round.
True, but it was St. Joe’s 1st game. As the 1 Seed from the East Division, St. Joe had a bye in the 1st round. Zavier, on the other hand, was the 4 Seed in the West, so they had to play the East 5 Seed (Bona) the day before.
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Old 01-20-2020, 10:19 PM
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Delonte West who paired with Jameer Nelson in that St Joe’s backcourt has hit absolute rock bottom and it is unbelievably sad to see:

https://mobile.twitter.com/damani_gi...09909827149825
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  #31  
Old 01-20-2020, 11:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Yeah, if they win those 5 initial games, they would be well rested for sweet 16, only having to play 2 games a week, 2 days apart the rest of the way. It's those 5 games to get to sweet 16 that I worry about. To me A10 tournament championship only means something when you need to get an auto-bid. Win the A10 regular season, take it easy through the conference tournament and be fresh and healthy for the big dance.
Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Yeah, the exception, not the rule. Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round of the NFL draft, I don't understand why all teams don't wait until the 6th round to find their QB.

BTW, 3 years later UConn lost to Louisville in the final game of BE tourney and then went on to win 6 games in a row for National Title.
Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
I couldn't care less about winning A10 championship when we have what amounts to a possible NCAA championship team. Rarely does the best team in a multi-bid conference win their conference tournament.
This whole argument is ridiculous. First off, UD has never won a conference tournament not played at the UD Arena. I want an A-10 regular season title and A-10 Tourney title. I want this team to steamroll the A-10 this year. We have never seen it, why wouldn't you want it.

As for the rest of your arguments, it's really easy to look up and instead of making random assumptions. The data is easily available and takes about 10 mins of time to look up. This isn't hard. Facts are easy to find and understand.

First: You are right in the fact that in multi-bid conferences, the regular season winner doesn't always win the conference tourney. However "rarely" is a stretch. Over the past ten seasons it's closer to a 50% chance the regular season winner also takes the tourney title. That isn't a "rarely" by any definition of the term.

But more importantly, the National Champion has done well in their conference tourney. Over the past 10 seasons, 4 NCs also were conference tourney winners. An additional 3 made it to their conference tourney final before losing. The other 3 NCs won their opening conference tourney game and then lost their next game. So 70% of the National Champions over the past decade have played 3 games in 3 days in their conference tourney (UCONN in 2011 made it more difficult by playing 5 games in 5 days) and still were able to turn around and win it all.

There is probably a couple of reasons for this. The most important and critical for this UD team, winning your conference tourney likely improves your seed line. Even if it is by 1 spot, that can make your run through the NCAA tourney easier. UD wins the A-10 tourney and a #2 seed is within reach. Going out early means a #3 or #4. Now playing a #15 might mean a blow-out, thus resting key stars in second half and being fresher in 2nd round. Playing a #13...well we all know how that played out for UD against Tulsa.

So can we drop this line of talk. Let's win everything in front of us. Go Flyers!
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  #32  
Old 01-21-2020, 12:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows View Post
Delonte West who paired with Jameer Nelson in that St Joe’s backcourt has hit absolute rock bottom and it is unbelievably sad to see:

https://mobile.twitter.com/damani_gi...09909827149825
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How sad! Delonte was so talented. He had one of the quickest first-steps I have ever seen. He could get to the basket quickly and finish well.
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Old 01-21-2020, 01:23 AM
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Martinelli and the NBA Player Association are apparently reaching out and trying to help. This is very sad to see. I hope he turns it around.
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Old 01-21-2020, 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by 434 View Post
This whole argument is ridiculous. First off, UD has never won a conference tournament not played at the UD Arena. I want an A-10 regular season title and A-10 Tourney title. I want this team to steamroll the A-10 this year. We have never seen it, why wouldn't you want it.

As for the rest of your arguments, it's really easy to look up and instead of making random assumptions. The data is easily available and takes about 10 mins of time to look up. This isn't hard. Facts are easy to find and understand.

First: You are right in the fact that in multi-bid conferences, the regular season winner doesn't always win the conference tourney. However "rarely" is a stretch. Over the past ten seasons it's closer to a 50% chance the regular season winner also takes the tourney title. That isn't a "rarely" by any definition of the term.

But more importantly, the National Champion has done well in their conference tourney. Over the past 10 seasons, 4 NCs also were conference tourney winners. An additional 3 made it to their conference tourney final before losing. The other 3 NCs won their opening conference tourney game and then lost their next game. So 70% of the National Champions over the past decade have played 3 games in 3 days in their conference tourney (UCONN in 2011 made it more difficult by playing 5 games in 5 days) and still were able to turn around and win it all.

There is probably a couple of reasons for this. The most important and critical for this UD team, winning your conference tourney likely improves your seed line. Even if it is by 1 spot, that can make your run through the NCAA tourney easier. UD wins the A-10 tourney and a #2 seed is within reach. Going out early means a #3 or #4. Now playing a #15 might mean a blow-out, thus resting key stars in second half and being fresher in 2nd round. Playing a #13...well we all know how that played out for UD against Tulsa.

So can we drop this line of talk. Let's win everything in front of us. Go Flyers!
As for regular season winners winning the conference tournaments, well duh, of course since there's a heck of a lot more 1 bid conferences than multi-bid ones. They have to win their tourney and that's where that 50 percent stat comes from. Tell me how many times it happens in multi-bid conferences.

I've never seen the Flyers win a National championship and I want that and can't care less about the rest. Conference championships make you proud for the moment, national championships last forever.

Nobody looks back on who won A10 championships except the fan base of the winning team.

Less games in conference tournament means less games with chance of injury and fatigue.

So, you have your opinion, I have mine, no I'm not going to just drop it and agree with you. I think your opinion is wrong.
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  #35  
Old 01-21-2020, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
As for regular season winners winning the conference tournaments, well duh, of course since there's a heck of a lot more 1 bid conferences than multi-bid ones. They have to win their tourney and that's where that 50 percent stat comes from. Tell me how many times it happens in multi-bid conferences.

I've never seen the Flyers win a National championship and I want that and can't care less about the rest. Conference championships make you proud for the moment, national championships last forever.

Nobody looks back on who won A10 championships except the fan base of the winning team.

Less games in conference tournament means less games with chance of injury and fatigue.

So, you have your opinion, I have mine, no I'm not going to just drop it and agree with you. I think your opinion is wrong.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Even udscott.

Just recognize that your opinion is probably in the strong MINORITY here.

Nobody is suggesting that they would rather win an A10 title over a national title. As supported by 434's data above, with a team of this caliber, they kind of go hand in hand.

I'm not sure if your argument is to "tank" the A10 tournament and rest the players and not risk injury. If it is, that's not happening and that wouldn't ever happen. No school or coach would do this. It sacrifices the spirit of competition that drives the game and success. Plus, it's not like it's the NFL, where a team has home field advantage wrapped up. Winning the A10 tournament can help improve our potential seed.

Win what's in front of you. Go for EVERY title and banner you can win.
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Old 01-21-2020, 10:27 AM
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Jameer Nelson
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Old 01-21-2020, 10:54 AM
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Sad to see, I knew he had some troubles with mental illness and what not, but it appears he's fallen well below rock bottom.
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Old 01-21-2020, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows View Post
Delonte West who paired with Jameer Nelson in that St Joe’s backcourt has hit absolute rock bottom and it is unbelievably sad to see:

https://mobile.twitter.com/damani_gi...09909827149825
Posted via Mobile Device
First round draft pick, #24 overall, by the Celtics in 2004. Tough to see, I hope that he gets help.
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Old 01-21-2020, 12:30 PM
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I feel bad for him as I do any other person who has mental illness. But let's not forget that he made over $16M in his career and also had access to more medical treatment than the normal person when he played for a professional team. He had ample opportunity to get help. Let's hope he figures it out sooner or later.

It reminds me of the Aaron Hernandez specials that are out right now that want to make you feel bad for him because of his upbringing. To me its hard to feel bad for a guy who had as many opportunities to do something better with his life and didn't take advantage. And there are 1000's of cases of other guys/gals that have had tough upbringings that have made good for themselves. And there are 1000's of others that didn't make good and are in jail around the country that nobody feels bad for, people just call them thugs, losers and criminals. But some want us to feel bad for the guy who made $40M because of his upbringing.
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Old 01-21-2020, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Even udscott.

Just recognize that your opinion is probably in the strong MINORITY here.

Nobody is suggesting that they would rather win an A10 title over a national title. As supported by 434's data above, with a team of this caliber, they kind of go hand in hand.

I'm not sure if your argument is to "tank" the A10 tournament and rest the players and not risk injury. If it is, that's not happening and that wouldn't ever happen. No school or coach would do this. It sacrifices the spirit of competition that drives the game and success. Plus, it's not like it's the NFL, where a team has home field advantage wrapped up. Winning the A10 tournament can help improve our potential seed.

Win what's in front of you. Go for EVERY title and banner you can win.
Don't care if I'm in the minority. Never have. I personally feel that the committee doesn't put much weight in these tournaments anyway. And I also believe they're not in the up and up either. Conferences are better off having a bubble team or even a team on the wrong side of the bubble winning and getting that extra spot. Add that to the motivation of that those teams have vs teams already a lock and I will bet that Dayton does not win the A10 conference tourney this year, and I won't be a bit upset that they don't.
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Old 01-21-2020, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Don't care if I'm in the minority. Never have. I personally feel that the committee doesn't put much weight in these tournaments anyway. And I also believe they're not in the up and up either. Conferences are better off having a bubble team or even a team on the wrong side of the bubble winning and getting that extra spot. Add that to the motivation of that those teams have vs teams already a lock and I will bet that Dayton does not win the A10 conference tourney this year, and I won't be a bit upset that they don't.
So presented with data that 1) suggests winning or playing in your conference tournament final increases your chances of winning a national title and 2) winning (any conference tournament game) vs losing, actually improves your resume and seeding (which also increases your chances of a national title)………….your answer is the following:

The Committee doesn't put much weight in the conference tournaments and...….wait for it, wait for it...……..the conference tournaments aren't "played/officiated/coached on the level." I'll look for you on Outside the Lines next week.

Would I bet on the Flyers winning the A10 Tourney? If I was a betting man, probably consider it. If they're to lose, I probably won't be that upset over it. Mostly because of how the season has gone and if things continue to progress as they are, Dayton will have already secured a strong seed in the Dance. But make no mistake, winning that A10 tourney will help secure a stronger seed for the Flyers.

Will any of this help the Flyers guarantee a deeper run in the tournament? Who knows? The tournament can be such a crap shoot with matchups, geographic location(s), etc. But history and statistics have proven that a better seed has a greater probability to advance in the tournament.

Last edited by SLUFLYER; 01-21-2020 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 01-21-2020, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
So presented with data that 1) suggests winning or playing in your conference tournament final increases your chances of winning a national title and 2) winning (any conference tournament game) vs losing, actually improves your resume and seeding (which also increases your chances of a national title)………….your answer is the following:

The Committee doesn't put much weight in the conference tournaments and...….wait for it, wait for it...……..the conference tournaments aren't "played/officiated/coached on the level." I'll look for you on Outside the Lines next week.

Would I bet on the Flyers winning the A10 Tourney? If I was a betting man, probably consider it. If they're to lose, I probably won't be that upset over it. Mostly because of how the season has gone and if things continue to progress as they are, Dayton will have already secured a strong seed in the Dance. But make no mistake, winning that A10 tourney will help secure a stronger seed for the Flyers.

Will any of this help the Flyers guarantee a deeper run in the tournament? Who knows? The tournament can be such a crap shoot with matchups, geographic location(s), etc. But history and statistics have proven that a better seed has a greater probability to advance in the tournament.
lol, chicken or egg. Do higher seeds win the tournament because they were higher seeds or were they higher seeds because they were one of the favorites to win the tournament? Most likely the latter. I don't care if the Flyers play a 16, 15 or 14 to start the tournament, if they cannot get by that game and the next, they weren't going to win the darn thing anyway, even if they were a seed or two better and even if they'd gone all out through the conference tournament.

The NCAA tournament is all that matters to me and I don't believe for one second that going all out to win your conference tournament helps you in the Dance. Personally, I'd prefer the A10 get as many teams to the dance as possible because that helps Dayton more than winning the tournament does. It helps our conference in money and prestige which in turn helps the Flyers and all other members.

There's only one situation that I care if Dayton wins the conference tournament, and that's when they have to for a bid. That's it, so rest your typing fingers, you're not swaying my opinion anymore than 404.

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  #43  
Old 01-21-2020, 03:38 PM
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The concerns expressed about the conference tournament fatigue factor are mitigated by our first & second round byes. Just win the whole dang thing, and keep on winning!

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  #44  
Old 01-21-2020, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
UD hasn't won the A-10 championship outside of UD arena ever; heck I'm not sure if they've ever won a conference tournament championship outside of UD arena in any league. Give me an A-10 title then I'll worry about the NCAA championship.
Maybe but who outside of our league cares about A10 Championships? Similarly, I couldn't tell you who won the ACC last year (hell you can be mediocre in that league and dance). Win the regular season in the A10 you are dancing because your resume is good at that point. You can play your way into the dance if you're a bubble team but I don't recall a case when it went the other way. I would say that it probably matters for seeding, especially as most of these are wrapping up on selection Sunday.
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Old 01-21-2020, 04:24 PM
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Who outside our league cares? No one of course, but guess what, I root for a team in "Our League" so I do care, and I particularly care about UD, so I want them to win every game they suit up, no matter the circumstances. Additionally, they've never done it outside the confines of UD arena, so I'd like to see it, just to see it. Xavier fans used to hold that over our head just a few years ago, VCU fans still mention it from time to time....so as a fan of my team, I want them to win everything.



If UD wins every game the rest of the regular season, and drops the Friday Nooner as so many 1 seeds have in the A-10 I'm not going to sweat it too bad, because like everyone else, I'd gladly swap a final 4 for an A-10 tournament championship, but I see no reason why winning the A-10 prevents UD from advancing in the NCAA. If its about injury prevention, OK, there is always that risk, just as there is that risk that they pick up an injury in a midsunday morning shootaround prior to the selection show that they wouldn't have had if they were still in Brooklyn. Nothing is garunteed, enjoy what's in front of you.
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  #46  
Old 01-21-2020, 04:27 PM
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Remember that the A-10 final is on Sunday and only a few hours before the draw is revealed. Should we get to the finals, I doubt that our seed will change in one direction or the other should we win or lose. Just not worth the extra work.
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Old 01-21-2020, 04:28 PM
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I don't care what the data indicates, I don't care what anyone wants or prefers. I am going to be in Brooklyn and I want to see a win on Sunday.
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Old 01-21-2020, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I'd gladly swap a final 4 for an A-10 tournament championship
Wow, would you gladly swap a final 4 for an NIT championship also? It's about the same prestige as winning the A10. Unbelievable that someone would put an A10 tournament championship on the same level as a final 4. UNBELIEVABLE.
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Old 01-21-2020, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Wow, would you gladly swap a final 4 for an NIT championship also? It's about the same prestige as winning the A10. Unbelievable that someone would put an A10 tournament championship on the same level as a final 4. UNBELIEVABLE.
I think you're mis-reading or mis-interpreting Medford's post. I almost did as well. Pretty sure he's suggesting that he would gladly TAKE a Final Four in exchange for giving up an A10 Championship.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:07 PM
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Dayton should try to win championships. Regular season, conference tournament, and the NCAA. One doesn't preclude another. Win them all. The end.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I think you're mis-reading or mis-interpreting Medford's post. I almost did as well. Pretty sure he's suggesting that he would gladly TAKE a Final Four in exchange for giving up an A10 Championship.

I figured that was obvious, i mean come on now.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:23 PM
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If you made me pick between the two, I would rather win the NCAA tourney than the A10 tourney.

But, I want to win the A10 tourney. I don't want to tank in the A10 to give me 0.01% better chance in the NCAA. The A10 tourney has meaning. I am sick of saying in a low mumble that "we've only one the A10 once, and on our home floor to boot..." We need to win it at a 50% clip or better. We're the best team in the A10, so act like it!
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I figured that was obvious, i mean come on now.
Actually, it wasn't obvious. When someone says "I'll gladly swap(item one) for (item two) it's usually assumed that person possesses item one and would gladly give it up for item 2. So, don't be arrogant like your post was easy to decipher.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:43 PM
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OK, we're 50+ posts deep in a thread title about something that happened to another A10 team ~15 years ago. So what's one more?

I guess I'm a little surprised by the passionate, minority and alternative stance that Smitty has suggested. I'll attempt to summarize.

IF the Flyers were to win the A10 regular season, Smitty sounds as if he's preferring the Flyers lose their first game in the A10 tourney to 1) avoid injury potential and 2) fatigue to stay fresh for the games we'll play 7 or 8 days later. It sounds as though Smitty is so strong in his opinion and its importance to a Final Four run, that he wants the Flyers to lose that game. That seems to be what's triggering the majority of responses.

I'll say this - IF the Flyers were to take an unfortunate early loss in the A10 tournament, I think a silver lining could be that we get some unexpected rest. Otherwise, WIN, WIN, WIN every game we possibly can.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Actually, it wasn't obvious. When someone says "I'll gladly swap(item one) for (item two) it's usually assumed that person possesses item one and would gladly give it up for item 2. So, don't be arrogant like your post was easy to decipher.
You have to admit Smitty, it would defy logic - taking an A10 title over a Final Four? Sometimes, people see/read what they want to.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:47 PM
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winning>losing
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
You have to admit Smitty, it would defy logic - taking an A10 title over a Final Four? Sometimes, people see/read what they want to.
Absolutely agree. I was shocked when I read it. But I read it the way it was typed so blame him, not me.
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Old 01-21-2020, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
I don't care if the Flyers play a 16, 15 or 14 to start the tournament,.
So you are assuming that the Flyers will finish the regular season with a 3 seed or better, regardless of how they do in the A10 tourney. So 12 or better on the S curve. I'm guessing that would mean running the table the rest of the A10 regular season. Even with that, I would not think that would guarantee a 3 seed if they lost on Friday in Brooklyn.

Suppose the Flyers lose a game? 2? 3? in the regular season. What do you think that does to their guaranteed seeding (no worse than __)? At what point do you care about the A10 tourney? Would you rather be a well rested 5 seed playing a 12 than win the A10 tourney and move up to a 4 seed playing a 13?
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Old 01-21-2020, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
OK, we're 50+ posts deep in a thread title about something that happened to another A10 team ~15 years ago. So what's one more?

I guess I'm a little surprised by the passionate, minority and alternative stance that Smitty has suggested. I'll attempt to summarize.

IF the Flyers were to win the A10 regular season, Smitty sounds as if he's preferring the Flyers lose their first game in the A10 tourney to 1) avoid injury potential and 2) fatigue to stay fresh for the games we'll play 7 or 8 days later. It sounds as though Smitty is so strong in his opinion and its importance to a Final Four run, that he wants the Flyers to lose that game. That seems to be what's triggering the majority of responses.

I'll say this - IF the Flyers were to take an unfortunate early loss in the A10 tournament, I think a silver lining could be that we get some unexpected rest. Otherwise, WIN, WIN, WIN every game we possibly can.
Actually, what Smitty wants, and I believe I stated, was win the first game, bow out in the 2nd. That's 2 games in two days, which is a little more demanding then 2 games in 3 days that's required throughout the NCAA tournament and a good preparation for the tourney. 3rd game in 3 days is when fatigue and subsequently injuries kick in and Smitty would rather not want to take chances in a season where our chances of winning it all is as promising as it's ever been(I realize we got to final game in 67 but that was unexpected and not promising going in).

Want an A10 tourney championship somewhere other than UD Arena, save it for next year or the year after when things are bound to be much less promising. Until the big dance, the less chances that Obi and Jalen have to step on an opponents foot, the better.

Oh and thanks for giving me a chance to type in the 3rd person, I like it.

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Old 01-21-2020, 06:15 PM
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I think a better comparison than the SJU/Jameer team is the 2014 Saint Louis team. They started the year 25-2 and got to a #10 national ranking. But then they lost three of their last four games in the regular season: home to Duquesne, at VCU, and home to Dayton. They then lost in the A10 Qtrs to St Bonaventure.

They entered the NCAA Tourney as a #5 seed and beat NCSU in OT, before losing to #4 Louisville in the Rd of 32.

That team was a collection of solid talent across the board. Dwayne Evans, Jordair Jett, Rob Loe, Mike McCall. That team lost Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis, and Cory Remekin the year prior. They played team ball and were tough to defend -- much like Dayton.

Also like Dayton, they were not quite the juggernaut SJU was with Jameer and West. They needed to execute to win. And in the final part of the regular season they lost some steam. When you're Top-10 everybody is gunning for you. Its hard to get to 25-2 and sustain it.

Dayton has a LONG way to go. The chances they get to 25-2 are extremely slim. Im not sure the Flyers are legitimately the 7th best team in the country and I cant imagine Im the only one feeling that. I think our talent scale puts us in the 15-18 range. But there are a lot of teams taking losses in tougher conferences and that's why they are dropping below us. Were we playing some of those foes, we'd be taking a loss here or there too. We're moving up because we're winning. But we havent beaten a team currently ranked in the Top-25 and we're not playing in a league with ANYWHERE near the same parity. If we were in the BE playing Marquette, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Butler, and Villanova back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back, things would be different.
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Old 01-21-2020, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
I couldn't care less about winning A10 championship when we have what amounts to a possible NCAA championship team. Rarely does the best team in a multi-bid conference win their conference tournament. I believe there are many reasons for that and one being that everyone, including the team that is a lock for a high seeding is better off if it doesn't happen. The conference is certainly better off if they get team who's on the outside looking in to win the championship.

I'd be happy if the Flyers win their first A10 tournament game and then bow out because I believe playing all the way to Sunday is a disadvantage come the following Thursday or Friday. Conference championships and the bid that comes along with it are for teams that aren't sure.

It's basically the same thing that happens in week 17 in the NFL, teams that are locks are more concerned with going into the NCAA tournament healthy and fresh than they are about winning the conference tournament.

We right now have a normal 5 game stretch where we realize it's going to take a lot of hard work to win all 5.

How much harder would that be to do it in 8 to 10 days against teams that win along with you in the conference tournament plus two NCAA caliber teams? I want the easy road and if that means dropping down one seed, then that's what I want.
Here's a link to a Kyle Sopp article that just came out today:
Do college basketball conference titles predict success in the NCAA tournament?

and here's an excerpt from that article:
"Over the past five seasons in what we'll the "power six" conferences, teams that have won both the regular-season and postseason conference crowns have won, on average, 13.5% more NCAA games than teams that won just the regular season and 38.5% more NCAA games than teams that won just the conference tournament. Those dominant teams won 2.8 games per NCAA tournament (for what it's worth, it would have been 3.0 without UMBC over Virginia), so we are talking about almost a free pass in your bracket to the Elite Eight if you win both the league and conference tourney."


My conclusion:

Just win baby. Success begets success.
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Old 01-21-2020, 06:57 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer View Post
"Over the past five seasons in what we'll the "power six" conferences, teams that have won both the regular-season and postseason conference crowns have won, on average, 13.5% more NCAA games than teams that won just the regular season and 38.5% more NCAA games than teams that won just the conference tournament.
If you win both the regular season and the conference tournament from a power conference, you're probably the best team in that conference that year.

They're better teams. They have higher seeds. They're expected to win more NCAA games. They usually do. I'm not seeing any great revelation here.

Chris R, all valid points. But SLU was 35 in Kenpom in 2014 (168 offense 8 defense). Dayton is 5 this year (2 offense 39 defense). SJU was 3 in 2004 (5 offense 12 defense). I'm not making any earth shattering projections now as it's way too early. But this Dayton team tracks much closer to 2004 SJU than 2014 SLU so far.
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Old 01-21-2020, 07:13 PM
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Originally Posted by John C. View Post
Remember that the A-10 final is on Sunday and only a few hours before the draw is revealed. Should we get to the finals, I doubt that our seed will change in one direction or the other should we win or lose. Just not worth the extra work.

Extra work? So you think what - that we should not play the starters, not play hard, purposely lose?
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Old 01-21-2020, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Extra work? So you think what - that we should not play the starters, not play hard, purposely lose?
I believe he means the committee doesn't want to put in the extra work but I read it that way too at first.
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Old 01-21-2020, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
The chances they get to 25-2 are extremely slim. Im not sure the Flyers are legitimately the 7th best team in the country...If we were in the BE playing Marquette, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Butler, and Villanova back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back, things would be different.
But we are not in the BE, so that is one of the big advantages of being in the A10. A big disadvantage is that if we do lose, the pollsters will punish us worse than a team from a tougher league, so IMO it all balances out.

We deserve the ranking we currently have.

You can not have it both ways.

And I do not think the chances of 25-2 are extremely thin, we could get there.

Slim? Maybe. Extremely thin? No.

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Old 01-21-2020, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
...a lot of teams taking losses in tougher conferences and that's why they are dropping below us. Were we playing some of those foes, we'd be taking a loss here or there too. We're moving up because we're winning. But we havent beaten a team currently ranked in the Top-25 and we're not playing in a league with ANYWHERE near the same parity. If we were in the BE playing Marquette, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Butler, and Villanova back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back, things would be different.
Finally our conference is paying dividend! Make your Mark in the non-con then cruise through a weak conference. It seems to work for the Zags.

Seriously though I share your fears somewhat. I feel good that the computer rankings seem to love us as much as the human polls.
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Old 01-21-2020, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
But we are not in the BE, so that is one of the big advantages of being in the A10. A big disadvantage is that if we do lose, the pollsters will punish us worse than a team from a tougher league, so IMO it all balances out.

We deserve the ranking we currently have.

You can not have it both ways.

And I do not think the chances of 25-2 are extremely thin, we could get there.

Slim? Maybe. Extremely thin? No.
Which is the reason I started this thread. It's becoming reminiscent record wise and enjoy energy wise to that season. We have a very different roster. I just am doubtful St Lou, Richmond ,Dukes or VCU can beat us. Of those I think Richmond has greatest chance.

Maybe away at URI also. 4 losses is not out of realm of possibility. With only 4 losses wed hover at a ranking of 2 to 5 at the end of the regular season no doubt.

Good problems only 😁
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Old 01-21-2020, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
I think a better comparison than the SJU/Jameer team is the 2014 Saint Louis team. They started the year 25-2 and got to a #10 national ranking. But then they lost three of their last four games in the regular season: home to Duquesne, at VCU, and home to Dayton. They then lost in the A10 Qtrs to St Bonaventure.

They entered the NCAA Tourney as a #5 seed and beat NCSU in OT, before losing to #4 Louisville in the Rd of 32.

That team was a collection of solid talent across the board. Dwayne Evans, Jordair Jett, Rob Loe, Mike McCall. That team lost Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis, and Cory Remekin the year prior. They played team ball and were tough to defend -- much like Dayton.

Also like Dayton, they were not quite the juggernaut SJU was with Jameer and West. They needed to execute to win. And in the final part of the regular season they lost some steam. When you're Top-10 everybody is gunning for you. Its hard to get to 25-2 and sustain it.

Dayton has a LONG way to go. The chances they get to 25-2 are extremely slim. Im not sure the Flyers are legitimately the 7th best team in the country and I cant imagine Im the only one feeling that. I think our talent scale puts us in the 15-18 range. But there are a lot of teams taking losses in tougher conferences and that's why they are dropping below us. Were we playing some of those foes, we'd be taking a loss here or there too. We're moving up because we're winning. But we havent beaten a team currently ranked in the Top-25 and we're not playing in a league with ANYWHERE near the same parity. If we were in the BE playing Marquette, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Butler, and Villanova back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back, things would be different.
Somewhat apples to oranges. If we are in the Big East, I’d have to argue our roster is different, with better talent 1-9. We recruit as well as we can in the A-10, but would likely get better quality players and a high recruit every year or two in the BE. Dramatically increasing our talent year to year.
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Old 01-21-2020, 11:37 PM
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I ran the numbers from KenPom.
* As of today our chance of winning out the regular season is ~10%.
* ~27% chance to only lose 1 game
* Our chance of winning the 3 game A10 tourney where we play 8, 4 and 2 on a natural court is ~52%.
* So our chance of winning out the season and being 32 and 2, about as good as St. Joes is ~5%

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Old 01-22-2020, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
I ran the numbers from KenPom.
* As of today our chance of winning out the regular season is ~10%.
* ~27% chance to only lose 1 game
* Our chance of winning the 3 game A10 tourney where we play 8, 4 and 2 on a natural court is ~52%.
* So our chance of winning out the season and being 32 and 2, about as good as St. Joes is ~5%
Understand that the Joes 2 losses were 1- to X in A10 tourney and 2 - to OK St in the Elite 8. So to equal Joes we need to win the Natty. I'm good with that.
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Old 01-22-2020, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
But we are not in the BE, so that is one of the big advantages of being in the A10. A big disadvantage is that if we do lose, the pollsters will punish us worse than a team from a tougher league, so IMO it all balances out.

We deserve the ranking we currently have.

You can not have it both ways.

And I do not think the chances of 25-2 are extremely thin, we could get there.

Slim? Maybe. Extremely thin? No.
I don't think he's saying they don't deserve to be ranked there as much he doesn't believe they're the 7th best team. But, again, this is nothing new. Did anybody believe OSU was actually a top 3-4 team regardless of deserving.Michigan #1 after a great start?

Take away the perennial jugernauts most years that you can easily say they're a top 3-4 team because of great players, coaches and, more importantly, consistency and we can argue "deserve vs. actuality" all day long. To this date I've never seen more teams get bumped from their rankings as I have this year. The names on the front of the jerseys don't mean as much anymore.

I feel that this current UD squad with a far more consistent Jordy AND a solid, if not spectacular, Chase Johnson and they would definitely be THE 7th best team in the country or better....On the flip,give me another 3-4 W's in a row which would also mark tremendous consistency (a trait missing from most teams this year) and they will be as good as their ranking which would be better than 7th...
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Old 01-22-2020, 09:22 PM
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Maybe its just me but I'd rather lose the A10 Championship and win against Tulsa in round 1 in the dead of night. Same difference with DePaul in two OTs the next year. I think UD lost to X in the Championship on that one so that does suck. But, IMO, nothing stings like one and done in the Big Dance. I still have nightmares about that double overtime game but only vaguely recall the Flyers hoisting the A10 trophy. That was a very talented team as well, I think 4 seed against Tulsa. Only time A10 Championship losses hurt are when your on the bubble and it's the only route to get in. I think it'll make the difference between the Flyers being a 2, 3, or a 4 seed this year.

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Flyer 86 (01-22-2020)
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Old 01-23-2020, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
I think a better comparison than the SJU/Jameer team is the 2014 Saint Louis team. They started the year 25-2 and got to a #10 national ranking. But then they lost three of their last four games in the regular season: home to Duquesne, at VCU, and home to Dayton. They then lost in the A10 Qtrs to St Bonaventure.

They entered the NCAA Tourney as a #5 seed and beat NCSU in OT, before losing to #4 Louisville in the Rd of 32.

That team was a collection of solid talent across the board. Dwayne Evans, Jordair Jett, Rob Loe, Mike McCall. That team lost Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis, and Cory Remekin the year prior. They played team ball and were tough to defend -- much like Dayton.

Also like Dayton, they were not quite the juggernaut SJU was with Jameer and West. They needed to execute to win. And in the final part of the regular season they lost some steam. When you're Top-10 everybody is gunning for you. Its hard to get to 25-2 and sustain it.

Dayton has a LONG way to go. The chances they get to 25-2 are extremely slim. Im not sure the Flyers are legitimately the 7th best team in the country and I cant imagine Im the only one feeling that. I think our talent scale puts us in the 15-18 range. But there are a lot of teams taking losses in tougher conferences and that's why they are dropping below us. Were we playing some of those foes, we'd be taking a loss here or there too. We're moving up because we're winning. But we havent beaten a team currently ranked in the Top-25 and we're not playing in a league with ANYWHERE near the same parity. If we were in the BE playing Marquette, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Butler, and Villanova back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back, things would be different.

I've wondered if the 2010 Butler team is a good comparison. That team had a lottery pick and all american (Honorable Mention) in Gordon Heyward, Shelvon Mack was a really good lead gaurd, and spend some time in the League, can/is Crutcher at that same level? Both are all league caliber players. They had a big man in Matt Howard that UD doesn't have, but UD has arguably the most impactful 6th man in college basketball in Watson, both were top 100 kids coming out of high school however.
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