UDPride Discussion Forums    
     

Go Back   UDPride Discussion Forums > UDPRIDE SPORTS FORUMS > Mens Basketball

» Log in
User Name:

Password:

Not a member yet?
Register Now!
» Advertisement
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-02-2023, 12:09 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
2023 Atlantic 10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            67.39% 19.31%  7.24%  3.22%  1.47%  0.71%  0.35%  0.16%  0.08%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis       17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19%  8.15%  5.38%  3.47%  2.15%  1.36%  0.78%  0.42%  0.20%  0.09%  0.09%  0.03%        3.25    77.97% 98.48%
George Mason       4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99%  8.11%  5.88%  4.00%  2.70%  1.71%  0.94%  0.51%  0.51%  0.21%        4.94    51.22% 93.89%
Richmond           3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25%  8.89%  7.05%  5.22%  3.77%  2.56%  1.60%  0.94%  0.94%  0.48%        5.42    44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne           1.61%  8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21%  8.08%  6.17%  4.52%  3.19%  2.08%  1.18%  1.18%  0.60%        5.90    37.78% 88.22%
VCU                3.17%  8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28%  8.57%  6.71%  5.18%  3.83%  2.59%  1.65%  1.65%  0.88%        6.14    35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure    0.66%  2.67%  5.11%  7.06%  8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65%  9.51%  7.93%  6.45%  4.77%  4.77%  2.96%        8.20    15.49% 67.05%
Davidson           0.33%  2.17%  4.26%  6.53%  8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25%  9.84%  8.04%  6.03%  4.37%  4.37%  2.76%        8.24    13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts      0.58%  2.27%  4.01%  6.10%  7.56%  9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51%  9.93%  8.85%  7.51%  5.89%  5.89%  4.26%        8.66    12.96% 61.24%
George Washington  0.21%  0.89%  2.04%  3.20%  4.62%  6.05%  7.61%  9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58%  9.55%  9.55%  7.83%        9.97     6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago     0.08%  0.34%  0.89%  1.62%  2.57%  3.82%  5.48%  7.00%  8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69%       10.95     2.93% 30.76%
Fordham            0.03%  0.17%  0.46%  0.99%  1.65%  2.58%  3.93%  5.54%  7.45%  9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19%       11.55     1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.14%  0.41%  0.86%  1.54%  2.71%  4.01%  5.59%  7.39%  9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60%       11.57     1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.10%  0.34%  0.77%  1.43%  2.27%  3.47%  4.85%  6.62%  8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34%       11.76     1.21% 19.86%
La Salle           0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.33%  0.56%  1.06%  1.83%  2.99%  4.50%  6.61%  9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15%       12.79     0.19%  6.96%
Reply With Quote
10 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), ClaytonFlyerFan (01-04-2023), frisco flyer (01-02-2023), Glen Clark (01-05-2023), Jeff (01-02-2023), Medford (01-03-2023), Rick Scaia (01-03-2023), Sarge (01-03-2023), superfan99 (01-03-2023), Viperstick (01-03-2023)
Advertisement
  #2  
Old 01-02-2023, 12:35 PM
maddog07's Avatar
maddog07 maddog07 is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 4,417
Thanks: 65
Thanked 1,558 Times in 941 Posts
maddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant futuremaddog07 has a brilliant future
This is absurd.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-02-2023, 01:25 PM
Don Don is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 317
Thanks: 0
Thanked 217 Times in 104 Posts
Don is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to beholdDon is a splendid one to behold
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            67.39% 19.31%  7.24%  3.22%  1.47%  0.71%  0.35%  0.16%  0.08%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis       17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19%  8.15%  5.38%  3.47%  2.15%  1.36%  0.78%  0.42%  0.20%  0.09%  0.09%  0.03%        3.25    77.97% 98.48%
George Mason       4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99%  8.11%  5.88%  4.00%  2.70%  1.71%  0.94%  0.51%  0.51%  0.21%        4.94    51.22% 93.89%
Richmond           3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25%  8.89%  7.05%  5.22%  3.77%  2.56%  1.60%  0.94%  0.94%  0.48%        5.42    44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne           1.61%  8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21%  8.08%  6.17%  4.52%  3.19%  2.08%  1.18%  1.18%  0.60%        5.90    37.78% 88.22%
VCU                3.17%  8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28%  8.57%  6.71%  5.18%  3.83%  2.59%  1.65%  1.65%  0.88%        6.14    35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure    0.66%  2.67%  5.11%  7.06%  8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65%  9.51%  7.93%  6.45%  4.77%  4.77%  2.96%        8.20    15.49% 67.05%
Davidson           0.33%  2.17%  4.26%  6.53%  8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25%  9.84%  8.04%  6.03%  4.37%  4.37%  2.76%        8.24    13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts      0.58%  2.27%  4.01%  6.10%  7.56%  9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51%  9.93%  8.85%  7.51%  5.89%  5.89%  4.26%        8.66    12.96% 61.24%
George Washington  0.21%  0.89%  2.04%  3.20%  4.62%  6.05%  7.61%  9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58%  9.55%  9.55%  7.83%        9.97     6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago     0.08%  0.34%  0.89%  1.62%  2.57%  3.82%  5.48%  7.00%  8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69%       10.95     2.93% 30.76%
Fordham            0.03%  0.17%  0.46%  0.99%  1.65%  2.58%  3.93%  5.54%  7.45%  9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19%       11.55     1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.14%  0.41%  0.86%  1.54%  2.71%  4.01%  5.59%  7.39%  9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60%       11.57     1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.10%  0.34%  0.77%  1.43%  2.27%  3.47%  4.85%  6.62%  8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34%       11.76     1.21% 19.86%
La Salle           0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.33%  0.56%  1.06%  1.83%  2.99%  4.50%  6.61%  9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15%       12.79     0.19%  6.96%
This is like predicting the odds on who will win the World Series in 2030?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-02-2023, 02:40 PM
UDEE79's Avatar
UDEE79 UDEE79 is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Beavercreek Ohio
Posts: 3,602
Thanks: 2,978
Thanked 2,415 Times in 1,074 Posts
UDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond reputeUDEE79 has a reputation beyond repute
Love it! It will be fun watching this progress throughout the season.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to UDEE79 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023)
  #5  
Old 01-02-2023, 02:43 PM
podcast411 podcast411 is offline
Major
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 705
Thanks: 240
Thanked 822 Times in 353 Posts
podcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant futurepodcast411 has a brilliant future
Originally Posted by Don View Post
This is like predicting the odds on who will win the World Series in 2030?
KC Royals.
Reply With Quote
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to podcast411 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (01-04-2023), Radar (01-03-2023), SLUFLYER (01-03-2023), UDGutter2 (01-02-2023)
  #6  
Old 01-02-2023, 02:59 PM
flyer016 flyer016 is offline
Major
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 624
Thanks: 624
Thanked 596 Times in 277 Posts
flyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant future
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            67.39% 19.31%  7.24%  3.22%  1.47%  0.71%  0.35%  0.16%  0.08%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis       17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19%  8.15%  5.38%  3.47%  2.15%  1.36%  0.78%  0.42%  0.20%  0.09%  0.09%  0.03%        3.25    77.97% 98.48%
George Mason       4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99%  8.11%  5.88%  4.00%  2.70%  1.71%  0.94%  0.51%  0.51%  0.21%        4.94    51.22% 93.89%
Richmond           3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25%  8.89%  7.05%  5.22%  3.77%  2.56%  1.60%  0.94%  0.94%  0.48%        5.42    44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne           1.61%  8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21%  8.08%  6.17%  4.52%  3.19%  2.08%  1.18%  1.18%  0.60%        5.90    37.78% 88.22%
VCU                3.17%  8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28%  8.57%  6.71%  5.18%  3.83%  2.59%  1.65%  1.65%  0.88%        6.14    35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure    0.66%  2.67%  5.11%  7.06%  8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65%  9.51%  7.93%  6.45%  4.77%  4.77%  2.96%        8.20    15.49% 67.05%
Davidson           0.33%  2.17%  4.26%  6.53%  8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25%  9.84%  8.04%  6.03%  4.37%  4.37%  2.76%        8.24    13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts      0.58%  2.27%  4.01%  6.10%  7.56%  9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51%  9.93%  8.85%  7.51%  5.89%  5.89%  4.26%        8.66    12.96% 61.24%
George Washington  0.21%  0.89%  2.04%  3.20%  4.62%  6.05%  7.61%  9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58%  9.55%  9.55%  7.83%        9.97     6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago     0.08%  0.34%  0.89%  1.62%  2.57%  3.82%  5.48%  7.00%  8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69%       10.95     2.93% 30.76%
Fordham            0.03%  0.17%  0.46%  0.99%  1.65%  2.58%  3.93%  5.54%  7.45%  9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19%       11.55     1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.14%  0.41%  0.86%  1.54%  2.71%  4.01%  5.59%  7.39%  9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60%       11.57     1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.10%  0.34%  0.77%  1.43%  2.27%  3.47%  4.85%  6.62%  8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34%       11.76     1.21% 19.86%
La Salle           0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.33%  0.56%  1.06%  1.83%  2.99%  4.50%  6.61%  9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15%       12.79     0.19%  6.96%
Love these, LIBob.

Could you tell us how these are determined?
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to flyer016 For This Totally Excellent Post:
LIBob (01-04-2023)
  #7  
Old 01-02-2023, 03:24 PM
UD62 UD62 is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,110
Thanks: 1,953
Thanked 2,457 Times in 1,283 Posts
UD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by podcast411 View Post
KC Royals.
My Detriot Tigers
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to UD62 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023)
  #8  
Old 01-02-2023, 07:15 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by flyer016 View Post
Love these, LIBob.

Could you tell us how these are determined?
Sure. I run 100,000 simulations of the A10 schedule using actual results for games played and KenPom win probabilities for games yet to be played.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), flyer016 (01-02-2023)
  #9  
Old 01-02-2023, 07:43 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,072
Thanks: 3,440
Thanked 4,693 Times in 2,511 Posts
TA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond repute
It’s all about KenPom and the metrics and right now the Flyers are well ahead of any other team in the conference.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to TA111 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), Flyer 86 (01-04-2023)
  #10  
Old 01-02-2023, 08:06 PM
Marysville Flyer's Avatar
Marysville Flyer Marysville Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,108
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,749 Times in 791 Posts
Marysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Can you predict the price of Twitter stock In March too?
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Marysville Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023)
  #11  
Old 01-02-2023, 09:24 PM
springborofan springborofan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Springboro
Posts: 2,415
Thanks: 2,210
Thanked 2,761 Times in 1,129 Posts
springborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
Can you predict the price of Twitter stock In March too?
Posted via Mobile Device
Sure….$0.00. Since it is a private company it has no stock price.
Reply With Quote
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to springborofan For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), Flyers98 (01-09-2023), FlyingArrow (01-09-2023), SLUFLYER (01-03-2023), TA111 (01-03-2023)
  #12  
Old 01-03-2023, 07:33 AM
ohioflyer's Avatar
ohioflyer ohioflyer is offline
Major
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Miami Township
Posts: 572
Thanks: 349
Thanked 85 Times in 58 Posts
ohioflyer is a name known to allohioflyer is a name known to allohioflyer is a name known to allohioflyer is a name known to allohioflyer is a name known to allohioflyer is a name known to all
Nice work....but at this point..
Interesting only. Wi be fun to watch things unfold!
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-03-2023, 10:19 AM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Remarkable that most posts are critical. I get it, it's a statistical model. Let's see what happens, or as Howard Cosell would say: "That's why they play the games".

Now we can get back to the 2023 NFL Mock draft version 63.
Reply With Quote
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Jeff For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), FlyingArrow (01-09-2023), ohioflyer (01-03-2023)
  #14  
Old 01-03-2023, 11:49 AM
Marysville Flyer's Avatar
Marysville Flyer Marysville Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,108
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,749 Times in 791 Posts
Marysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Remarkable that most posts are critical. I get it, it's a statistical model. Let's see what happens, or as Howard Cosell would say: "That's why they play the games".

Now we can get back to the 2023 NFL Mock draft version 63.
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-03-2023, 12:12 PM
Flyerferd Flyerferd is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
Flyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud of
One of if not my favorite thread of the year. One thing to watch this year is that ninth seed. remember that now teams 10 through 15 will have to play on the first day.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Flyerferd For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), LIBob (01-04-2023)
  #16  
Old 01-03-2023, 12:35 PM
flyerfanatic86's Avatar
flyerfanatic86 flyerfanatic86 is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,946
Thanks: 4,452
Thanked 1,414 Times in 671 Posts
flyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
Then don't look at it. Nobody is saying this is going to be completely predictive today. I personally enjoy looking at how it shifts throughout the season as more games are played.
Reply With Quote
10 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to flyerfanatic86 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), ClaytonFlyerFan (01-04-2023), FlyingArrow (01-09-2023), Jeff (01-03-2023), John C. (01-03-2023), LIBob (01-04-2023), mikeymo85 (01-03-2023), rollo (01-03-2023), superfan99 (01-03-2023), TA111 (01-03-2023)
  #17  
Old 01-03-2023, 02:21 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,072
Thanks: 3,440
Thanked 4,693 Times in 2,511 Posts
TA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
Actually, this takes into account all games to date which is around half of the season. KenPom numbers are now starting to become predictive.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to TA111 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Cardsflyer (01-09-2023), LIBob (01-04-2023)
  #18  
Old 01-03-2023, 09:18 PM
T-Bone 84's Avatar
T-Bone 84 T-Bone 84 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Shiloh, OH
Posts: 8,414
Thanks: 2,350
Thanked 4,994 Times in 2,668 Posts
T-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond reputeT-Bone 84 has a reputation beyond repute
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-03-2023, 09:26 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
Posted via Mobile Device
Look at who they played OOC. The Sacred Bleeding Heart Of Jesus Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California, is not exactly a Quad I win.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Jeff For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (01-04-2023)
  #20  
Old 01-04-2023, 10:03 AM
Flyer 86's Avatar
Flyer 86 Flyer 86 is offline
General
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Long Island NY
Posts: 7,172
Thanks: 31,820
Thanked 1,267 Times in 785 Posts
Flyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyer 86 has a reputation beyond repute
I've got us at 13 and 3!
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-04-2023, 10:18 AM
TA111 TA111 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,072
Thanks: 3,440
Thanked 4,693 Times in 2,511 Posts
TA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
Posted via Mobile Device
It’s about strength of the team, not just wins and losses. Fordham has played the worst schedule in the country in OOC, and they’ve struggled in some of those games. As you can see form the result of their game against Davidson, which they lost at home by 15 points, the predictive nature of KenPom was pretty accurate.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-04-2023, 12:06 PM
Rick Scaia Rick Scaia is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: The Mythological Land of Dayton, OH
Posts: 258
Thanks: 36
Thanked 298 Times in 104 Posts
Rick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud ofRick Scaia has much to be proud of
It's not even entirely SOS. More accurately, it's how efficiently you play.

And Fordham has the 260th offense in the nation and 150th defense, for an overall ranking of 190th in on-court performance. When the metrics say you're that bad, same metric won't give you much credit for beating teams that are worse (though pragmatically speaking, the upshot is that even a bad team can rack up wins against worse team, so it does circle back to SOS in that way). And that's how you win 12 OOC games, and project to win 6 or 7 conference games.

Dayton has the 18th best defense in the country, which is elite, and an offense that is trending up (80th in our last 8 games, with turnovers being our biggest remaining hurdle), which is why metrics still like us for 13 or 14 conference wins. [That is without even factoring the human element of getting Mali and Elvis back, which should address the exact areas where our offense falters.]
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Rick Scaia For This Totally Excellent Post:
frisco flyer (01-09-2023)
  #23  
Old 01-04-2023, 12:23 PM
Flyerferd Flyerferd is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
Flyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud ofFlyerferd has much to be proud of
Atlantic 10 has adjusted tip times for the tournament. A significant item of note, there is a one day break between the quarters, and semi‘s. The incentive to grab one of those top four spots is now larger because you only have to play three games in four days now. https://atlantic10.com/sports/2022/8/10/MBB23.aspx
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Flyerferd For This Totally Excellent Post:
Jeff (01-04-2023), mikeymo85 (01-04-2023)
  #24  
Old 01-04-2023, 03:45 PM
MrFlyerFanatic's Avatar
MrFlyerFanatic MrFlyerFanatic is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
MrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond repute
travel

Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Atlantic 10 has adjusted tip times for the tournament. A significant item of note, there is a one day break between the quarters, and semi‘s. The incentive to grab one of those top four spots is now larger because you only have to play three games in four days now. https://atlantic10.com/sports/2022/8/10/MBB23.aspx
Posted via Mobile Device
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.

1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.

On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
Bill McPeek (01-04-2023)
  #25  
Old 01-04-2023, 03:47 PM
springborofan springborofan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Springboro
Posts: 2,415
Thanks: 2,210
Thanked 2,761 Times in 1,129 Posts
springborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond reputespringborofan has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
It's not even entirely SOS. More accurately, it's how efficiently you play.

And Fordham has the 260th offense in the nation and 150th defense, for an overall ranking of 190th in on-court performance. When the metrics say you're that bad, same metric won't give you much credit for beating teams that are worse (though pragmatically speaking, the upshot is that even a bad team can rack up wins against worse team, so it does circle back to SOS in that way). And that's how you win 12 OOC games, and project to win 6 or 7 conference games.

Dayton has the 18th best defense in the country, which is elite, and an offense that is trending up (80th in our last 8 games, with turnovers being our biggest remaining hurdle), which is why metrics still like us for 13 or 14 conference wins. [That is without even factoring the human element of getting Mali and Elvis back, which should address the exact areas where our offense falters.]
Thanks for posting this Rick. Solid information that I’m not sure the casual fan (or even casual poster on UD Pride) fully understands.

It’s important for UD to continue to reduce TO’s and improve offense efficiency. Not only does it increase winning probability but it will be something the committee looks at.

I would argue the lack of fully understanding the NET is the primary reason so many on this board we’re surprised to find out UD was so close to getting an at large bid. And, this year, even without the signature wins, could help UD if they go, say 16-2, in conference.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 01-04-2023, 04:56 PM
OSU Flyer's Avatar
OSU Flyer OSU Flyer is offline
General
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 6,252
Thanks: 2,335
Thanked 3,904 Times in 2,143 Posts
OSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.

1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.

On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
I would rather spend a weekend in jail than fly into LGA
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to OSU Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
Bill McPeek (01-04-2023), Jeff (01-04-2023)
  #27  
Old 01-04-2023, 06:03 PM
Bill McPeek's Avatar
Bill McPeek Bill McPeek is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Vernon, NJ
Posts: 4,660
Thanks: 1,880
Thanked 1,182 Times in 579 Posts
Bill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond repute
I live in north Jersey, 4 miles from the New Jersey - New York (Orange County) border. Driving to Brooklyn, while doable, just doesn't make sense to me. I am referring to parking, tolls, etc. I think it is now a $16 toll to cross the GW bridge! That leaves public transportation. With time constraints, connections that would have to be made, that is out of the question. I am not about to get a hotel room in Brooklyn for the tournament. All this has become too expensive! I have attended the A-10 Tournament in Dayton and Atlantic City (a 3 and 1/2 hour drive). I will not go to Brooklyn. Madison Square Graden is much easier to get to, but that is not in the discussion.

We play Fordham next week. I have made the trip to Rose Hill in the past, but I do NOT plan on traveling to the "da Bronx" next week. At 73, almost 74, I'll just sit at home and watch the game on the Tube! If someone wants to drive me to Fordham next week maybe, I'll reconsider.

Last edited by Bill McPeek; 01-04-2023 at 06:10 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 01-04-2023, 09:24 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.

1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.

On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
It's not just the cost, it's the CRIME that has exploded in NYC. I'll stop there or this will be considered an Off Topic item.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 01-04-2023, 09:26 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Talking

Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
I would rather spend a weekend in jail than fly into LGA
Spot on....beautiful airport, followed by a short, quiet, lazy drive into the city
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 01-04-2023, 09:55 PM
Hyde Park Flyer Hyde Park Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,353
Thanks: 364
Thanked 1,430 Times in 755 Posts
Hyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
It's not just the cost, it's the CRIME that has exploded in NYC. I'll stop there or this will be considered an Off Topic item.
I lived there when the crime was significantly worse in the early 90’s. I never had an issue. Use common sense, and the city is safe. I only had one friend who was mostly responsible and was still a victim of an attack. I say mostly because he knew better than to stand alone on a platform in Jamaica on a Sunday morning. He knew that safety is in numbers. Fwiw, he was only a “victim” because he was attacked. He is a martial arts expert and caused significant injury to the attacker. Karma.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Hyde Park Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
UDEE79 (01-12-2023)
  #31  
Old 01-05-2023, 10:57 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            79.48% 12.58%  4.29%  1.99%  0.82%  0.45%  0.22%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.35    98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis        7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19%  8.76%  6.77%  4.99%  3.42%  2.16%  1.24%  0.62%  0.31%  0.31%  0.10%        4.37    60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne           2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41%  8.37%  6.46%  4.58%  2.97%  1.82%  0.99%  0.51%  0.51%  0.24%        5.00    50.88% 93.43%
Richmond           3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63%  9.06%  7.39%  5.71%  3.79%  2.35%  1.31%  0.71%  0.71%  0.30%        5.29    46.67% 91.45%
George Mason       2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20%  8.33%  6.23%  4.37%  2.81%  1.68%  0.79%  0.79%  0.34%        5.68    39.82% 89.92%
Davidson           0.74%  5.30%  7.72%  9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33%  8.00%  5.48%  3.20%  1.80%  1.80%  0.83%        7.01    23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts      1.48%  6.57%  8.20%  9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44%  9.60%  7.88%  5.99%  4.31%  2.71%  2.71%  1.60%        7.14    25.53% 76.91%
VCU                1.31%  5.18%  7.38%  9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72%  9.74%  8.27%  6.34%  4.33%  2.87%  2.87%  1.49%        7.28    23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure    1.18%  5.08%  7.26%  8.79%  9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40%  8.47%  6.47%  4.39%  2.73%  2.73%  1.42%        7.33    22.30% 76.07%
George Washington  0.12%  0.75%  1.44%  2.25%  3.35%  4.58%  6.22%  8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79%  8.25%       10.42     4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island       0.05%  0.32%  0.70%  1.37%  2.29%  3.63%  5.24%  7.13%  9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23%       10.99     2.43% 30.24%
Fordham            0.02%  0.13%  0.37%  0.66%  1.11%  1.91%  3.01%  4.20%  6.45%  9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59%       11.88     1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.08%  0.19%  0.47%  0.96%  1.49%  2.43%  3.79%  5.71%  8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87%       12.08     0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.09%  0.19%  0.45%  0.80%  1.43%  2.23%  3.58%  5.43%  8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98%       12.14     0.74% 14.22%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.04%  0.10%  0.20%  0.38%  0.72%  1.38%  2.53%  4.32%  6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76%       12.93     0.16%  5.36%
Reply With Quote
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
John C. (01-05-2023), Rick Scaia (01-05-2023), superfan99 (01-05-2023), TA111 (01-05-2023), UDEE79 (01-12-2023)
  #32  
Old 01-05-2023, 12:37 PM
The Gem The Gem is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,581
Thanks: 863
Thanked 879 Times in 429 Posts
The Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant futureThe Gem has a brilliant future
Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Look at who they played OOC. The Sacred Bleeding Heart Of Jesus Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California, is not exactly a Quad I win.
Yes, but after the win the Fordahm bus driver ran 20 red lights in their honor.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to The Gem For This Totally Excellent Post:
Buster (01-05-2023), mikeymo85 (01-05-2023)
  #33  
Old 01-05-2023, 02:35 PM
MrFlyerFanatic's Avatar
MrFlyerFanatic MrFlyerFanatic is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
MrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond repute
Talking plan ahead

Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            79.48% 12.58%  4.29%  1.99%  0.82%  0.45%  0.22%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.35    98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis        7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19%  8.76%  6.77%  4.99%  3.42%  2.16%  1.24%  0.62%  0.31%  0.31%  0.10%        4.37    60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne           2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41%  8.37%  6.46%  4.58%  2.97%  1.82%  0.99%  0.51%  0.51%  0.24%        5.00    50.88% 93.43%
Richmond           3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63%  9.06%  7.39%  5.71%  3.79%  2.35%  1.31%  0.71%  0.71%  0.30%        5.29    46.67% 91.45%
George Mason       2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20%  8.33%  6.23%  4.37%  2.81%  1.68%  0.79%  0.79%  0.34%        5.68    39.82% 89.92%
Davidson           0.74%  5.30%  7.72%  9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33%  8.00%  5.48%  3.20%  1.80%  1.80%  0.83%        7.01    23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts      1.48%  6.57%  8.20%  9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44%  9.60%  7.88%  5.99%  4.31%  2.71%  2.71%  1.60%        7.14    25.53% 76.91%
VCU                1.31%  5.18%  7.38%  9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72%  9.74%  8.27%  6.34%  4.33%  2.87%  2.87%  1.49%        7.28    23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure    1.18%  5.08%  7.26%  8.79%  9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40%  8.47%  6.47%  4.39%  2.73%  2.73%  1.42%        7.33    22.30% 76.07%
George Washington  0.12%  0.75%  1.44%  2.25%  3.35%  4.58%  6.22%  8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79%  8.25%       10.42     4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island       0.05%  0.32%  0.70%  1.37%  2.29%  3.63%  5.24%  7.13%  9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23%       10.99     2.43% 30.24%
Fordham            0.02%  0.13%  0.37%  0.66%  1.11%  1.91%  3.01%  4.20%  6.45%  9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59%       11.88     1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.08%  0.19%  0.47%  0.96%  1.49%  2.43%  3.79%  5.71%  8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87%       12.08     0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.09%  0.19%  0.45%  0.80%  1.43%  2.23%  3.58%  5.43%  8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98%       12.14     0.74% 14.22%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.04%  0.10%  0.20%  0.38%  0.72%  1.38%  2.53%  4.32%  6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76%       12.93     0.16%  5.36%
Well, UD looks like a lock for 1-4. I better start planning.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 01-05-2023, 02:47 PM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
"Well I guess there is only one thing to do. Win the whole Blankin' thing." - Jake Taylor
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 01-05-2023, 03:19 PM
flyer016 flyer016 is offline
Major
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 624
Thanks: 624
Thanked 596 Times in 277 Posts
flyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant future
It feels like the A10 is starting to suffer from the great sorting of big college sports. Those probabilities reflect UD being the class of the conference (in a not particular good OOC season).

UD should always be a favorite for the regular season and tournament championships, but it's becoming clear that UD needs to start winning conference championships with regularity. There's no excuses. Most of these teams don't belong in the same gym, and it's time to start asserting some A10 dominance. Anything less than 15 wins and a 1-seed is a disappointment for me.
Reply With Quote
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to flyer016 For This Totally Excellent Post:
bigudfan (01-05-2023), springborofan (01-05-2023), The Gem (01-05-2023)
  #36  
Old 01-05-2023, 03:23 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,072
Thanks: 3,440
Thanked 4,693 Times in 2,511 Posts
TA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            79.48% 12.58%  4.29%  1.99%  0.82%  0.45%  0.22%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.35    98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis        7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19%  8.76%  6.77%  4.99%  3.42%  2.16%  1.24%  0.62%  0.31%  0.31%  0.10%        4.37    60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne           2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41%  8.37%  6.46%  4.58%  2.97%  1.82%  0.99%  0.51%  0.51%  0.24%        5.00    50.88% 93.43%
Richmond           3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63%  9.06%  7.39%  5.71%  3.79%  2.35%  1.31%  0.71%  0.71%  0.30%        5.29    46.67% 91.45%
George Mason       2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20%  8.33%  6.23%  4.37%  2.81%  1.68%  0.79%  0.79%  0.34%        5.68    39.82% 89.92%
Davidson           0.74%  5.30%  7.72%  9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33%  8.00%  5.48%  3.20%  1.80%  1.80%  0.83%        7.01    23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts      1.48%  6.57%  8.20%  9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44%  9.60%  7.88%  5.99%  4.31%  2.71%  2.71%  1.60%        7.14    25.53% 76.91%
VCU                1.31%  5.18%  7.38%  9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72%  9.74%  8.27%  6.34%  4.33%  2.87%  2.87%  1.49%        7.28    23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure    1.18%  5.08%  7.26%  8.79%  9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40%  8.47%  6.47%  4.39%  2.73%  2.73%  1.42%        7.33    22.30% 76.07%
George Washington  0.12%  0.75%  1.44%  2.25%  3.35%  4.58%  6.22%  8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79%  8.25%       10.42     4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island       0.05%  0.32%  0.70%  1.37%  2.29%  3.63%  5.24%  7.13%  9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23%       10.99     2.43% 30.24%
Fordham            0.02%  0.13%  0.37%  0.66%  1.11%  1.91%  3.01%  4.20%  6.45%  9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59%       11.88     1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.08%  0.19%  0.47%  0.96%  1.49%  2.43%  3.79%  5.71%  8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87%       12.08     0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.09%  0.19%  0.45%  0.80%  1.43%  2.23%  3.58%  5.43%  8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98%       12.14     0.74% 14.22%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.04%  0.10%  0.20%  0.38%  0.72%  1.38%  2.53%  4.32%  6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76%       12.93     0.16%  5.36%
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity between the forecasted top seed and the rest of the conference. Bob, since you’ve been doing this, has there ever been such a wide margin?
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to TA111 For This Totally Excellent Post:
flyerfanatic86 (01-06-2023), LIBob (01-09-2023)
  #37  
Old 01-09-2023, 01:23 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity between the forecasted top seed and the rest of the conference. Bob, since you’ve been doing this, has there ever been such a wide margin?
Looking back to 2020, on the 1/5 update UD had a 70% chance to be seed first, followed by VCU at 17%. By the 1/11 update, UD rose to 80% followed by Duquesne at 7%.

So a similar disparity. Hopefully, the regular season conference results can end up the same.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 01-09-2023, 11:22 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/7:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            75.04% 15.02%  5.42%  2.38%  1.07%  0.56%  0.28%  0.13%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.44    97.86% 99.96%
Saint Louis       11.14% 25.91% 19.21% 14.08%  9.98%  7.26%  4.84%  3.20%  2.04%  1.26%  0.63%  0.30%  0.11%  0.11%  0.03%        3.75    70.34% 97.65%
Richmond           4.97% 17.84% 16.96% 14.52% 12.22%  9.89%  7.77%  5.86%  4.12%  2.66%  1.61%  0.93%  0.44%  0.44%  0.17%        4.76    54.28% 94.13%
George Mason       2.92% 11.74% 14.49% 14.97% 14.14% 12.08%  9.75%  7.42%  5.19%  3.51%  2.02%  1.03%  0.52%  0.52%  0.16%        5.31    44.13% 92.70%
Duquesne           1.61% 11.47% 15.46% 15.88% 14.27% 11.92%  9.42%  7.09%  5.21%  3.47%  2.13%  1.18%  0.62%  0.62%  0.23%        5.36    44.41% 92.32%
VCU                2.55%  8.15% 10.44% 11.90% 12.78% 12.46% 11.16%  9.43%  7.36%  5.49%  3.75%  2.38%  1.36%  1.36%  0.61%        6.19    33.04% 86.22%
Davidson           0.27%  2.45%  4.54%  6.49%  8.82% 10.98% 12.67% 13.21% 12.36% 10.30%  7.61%  5.09%  2.98%  2.98%  1.65%        7.94    13.76% 71.79%
Massachusetts      0.75%  3.39%  5.34%  6.87%  8.65% 10.22% 11.01% 11.40% 11.18%  9.93%  8.05%  5.83%  3.98%  3.98%  2.34%        8.01    16.34% 68.81%
St. Bonaventure    0.42%  2.04%  4.16%  6.23%  7.84%  9.45% 11.15% 11.86% 11.84% 10.82%  8.98%  6.77%  4.67%  4.67%  2.70%        8.42    12.85% 64.99%
George Washington  0.27%  1.50%  2.70%  4.04%  5.58%  7.22%  9.15% 10.68% 12.12% 12.41% 11.36%  9.25%  6.96%  6.96%  4.50%        9.29     8.52% 53.26%
Fordham            0.03%  0.27%  0.64%  1.22%  2.01%  3.07%  4.82%  6.60%  8.91% 11.39% 13.62% 14.39% 13.76% 13.76% 11.74%       11.17     2.17% 27.58%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.12%  0.38%  0.85%  1.46%  2.58%  3.88%  5.80%  7.86% 10.08% 12.38% 13.73% 14.47% 14.47% 14.40%       11.52     1.37% 22.95%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.04%  0.11%  0.20%  0.42%  0.83%  1.42%  2.61%  4.31%  6.91% 10.39% 14.11% 16.91% 16.91% 19.51%       12.46     0.36%  9.94%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.03%  0.10%  0.21%  0.45%  0.84%  1.40%  2.49%  3.72%  5.83%  8.59% 12.48% 16.57% 16.57% 20.82%       12.59     0.34%  9.23%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.17%  0.31%  0.66%  1.30%  2.23%  3.73%  5.95%  8.87% 12.53% 16.65% 16.65% 21.12%       12.64     0.24%  8.47%
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 01-09-2023, 11:38 AM
Flyers98 Flyers98 is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,319
Thanks: 406
Thanked 1,001 Times in 493 Posts
Flyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
I would argue that there is no value to it until the end of the season, other than for discussion and comparison. It is a predictor of something(s) that is (are) going actually happen in real life, the actual result is what matters.

Even the NET is somewhat useless until all the games have been played as nothing is static, you could beat the #1 team in the country on their home court in November and if they are #100 in March you have yourself a road win over #100.

Full disclosure, I tend to expect the worst, figuring I will be pleasantly surprised.

Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 11:44 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 01-09-2023, 12:06 PM
rollo's Avatar
rollo rollo is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
rollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond repute
I took the free money from FanDual and DraftKings and placed it on My Team to win the A10 regular season. Who's with me?
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
Reply With Quote
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
frisco flyer (01-09-2023), jack72 (01-09-2023), mikeymo85 (01-09-2023), SLUFLYER (01-09-2023)
  #41  
Old 01-09-2023, 12:42 PM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.


At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.


If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Medford For This Totally Excellent Post:
superfan99 (01-09-2023)
  #42  
Old 01-09-2023, 12:49 PM
Hyde Park Flyer Hyde Park Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,353
Thanks: 364
Thanked 1,430 Times in 755 Posts
Hyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I took the free money from FanDual and DraftKings and placed it on My Team to win the A10 regular season. Who's with me?
What kind of odds did you get?
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 01-09-2023, 01:24 PM
rollo's Avatar
rollo rollo is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
rollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
What kind of odds did you get?
Posted via Mobile Device
-230 on FanDual and -170 on DraftKings
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 01-09-2023, 01:53 PM
Flyers98 Flyers98 is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,319
Thanks: 406
Thanked 1,001 Times in 493 Posts
Flyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.


At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.

If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
I don't have to figure out who to "watch out for" as I won't be playing any basketball for the Flyers this season, (still working on getting an exemption, growing 8 inches, and developing a lot more athletic ability for next year).

Any coach who needs to be told "who to watch out for" should be fired on the spot as the answer to that question from a coach/player perspective is always "everyone." These rankings/predictions have entertainment value, (including as betting tools, congrats Ohio!), and are good for starting hypothetical discussions, but that is really the only value they have. The only thing that really matters is what the metrics say at the end, which as you correctly point out is based on actual data and not simulations or projections.

Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 02:13 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 01-09-2023, 02:29 PM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
Well I sure as **** hope that neither CAG nor anyone from his staff is reading UDPRIDE trying to gleam a little inside tip on the opposition or whom to recruit.


If all you want to do is sit back and see what the standings say at the end of the year, then this thread isn't for you. Part of the fun (for me anyways) is seeing what the possibilities ahead look like and things like this or Torvik remove my personal bias from the equation and give me a reasonable picture of what the future may hold if everything stays 'steady'. I don't think any reasonable person thinks this or anything similar is absolute.
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 01-09-2023, 02:54 PM
Marysville Flyer's Avatar
Marysville Flyer Marysville Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,108
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,749 Times in 791 Posts
Marysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
I don't have to figure out who to "watch out for" as I won't be playing any basketball for the Flyers this season, (still working on getting an exemption, growing 8 inches, and developing a lot more athletic ability for next year).

Any coach who needs to be told "who to watch out for" should be fired on the spot as the answer to that question from a coach/player perspective is always "everyone." These rankings/predictions have entertainment value, (including as betting tools, congrats Ohio!), and are good for starting hypothetical discussions, but that is really the only value they have. The only thing that really matters is what the metrics say at the end, which as you correctly point out is based on actual data and not simulations or projections.
Yep. It's like the ESPN game predictor that is always accurate at the end of the game and is captain obvious the rest of the time.
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 01-09-2023, 03:01 PM
Marysville Flyer's Avatar
Marysville Flyer Marysville Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,108
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,749 Times in 791 Posts
Marysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.


At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.


If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
I see it as just the opposite. Early on it's just conjecture on limited data points for teams that have likely not played many of the same teams. Once the conference games start, the value of the data used in projections is much more accurate and predictions more rational and based on more relevant data points.

If we used this same model to predict who would be most likely to win the A10 tournament for the past 20 years, how accurate would it have rated UD's chances vs. actuals?
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 01-09-2023, 03:08 PM
superfan99 superfan99 is offline
Major
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 607
Thanks: 1,066
Thanked 577 Times in 257 Posts
superfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond reputesuperfan99 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
I see it as just the opposite. Early on it's just conjecture on limited data points for teams that have likely not played many of the same teams. Once the conference games start, the value of the data used in projections is much more accurate and predictions more rational and based on more relevant data points.

If we used this same model to predict who would be most likely to win the A10 tournament for the past 20 years, how accurate would it have rated UD's chances vs. actuals?
Medford didn't say "more accurate", he said "more valuable". That was his whole point. Of course it becomes more and more accurate each game and eventually is 100% accurate and matches the standings at the end of the year.

More "valuable" now because it lets the casual observer know that despite Fordham having the best non-conference record, they are still way down in the projected finish ranking. And despite Dayton's worse than expected record to start the season, the metrics still show that we have the best team in the A10.

It is not 100% accurate, but it is much more accurate than simply looking at a team's record or pre-season coach's poll to determine the conference favorites at this point.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to superfan99 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Jeff (01-09-2023), Marysville Flyer (01-09-2023)
  #49  
Old 01-09-2023, 03:24 PM
Marysville Flyer's Avatar
Marysville Flyer Marysville Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,108
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,749 Times in 791 Posts
Marysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by superfan99 View Post
Medford didn't say "more accurate", he said "more valuable". That was his whole point. Of course it becomes more and more accurate each game and eventually is 100% accurate and matches the standings at the end of the year.

More "valuable" now because it lets the casual observer know that despite Fordham having the best non-conference record, they are still way down in the projected finish ranking. And despite Dayton's worse than expected record to start the season, the metrics still show that we have the best team in the A10.

It is not 100% accurate, but it is much more accurate than simply looking at a team's record or pre-season coach's poll to determine the conference favorites at this point.
Fair enough but NET tells us the same thing since UD was highest entering the conference season. Many other prediction methods do the same thing using different metrics and weighting. This is just another one of those and not better or worse necessarily.

There are so many of these out there, it just comes down to either which are you going to trust or how many have to tell you the same thing before I will trust it.

I have a hard time understanding how a prediction tool worth considering could be rating UD as 70% likely 3 games in with this team having been so up and down.

It's like the pre-season top 25 in NCAAF that are so far from accurate for about 75% of the teams by year's end that it really has little predictive value until at least half way thru the season.

I'm also wondering if this model takes the imbalanced schedules into consideration when determining this? Since we play the other top teams twice and others play the weaker twice, is that a consideration when creating their pcts?

I'm a data guy in my job so I guess I just define value differently and have a hard time changing that when wearing my fan hat.

Last edited by Marysville Flyer; 01-09-2023 at 03:27 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 01-09-2023, 03:52 PM
Flyers98 Flyers98 is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,319
Thanks: 406
Thanked 1,001 Times in 493 Posts
Flyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond reputeFlyers98 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Well I sure as **** hope that neither CAG nor anyone from his staff is reading UDPRIDE trying to gleam a little inside tip on the opposition or whom to recruit.


If all you want to do is sit back and see what the standings say at the end of the year, then this thread isn't for you. Part of the fun (for me anyways) is seeing what the possibilities ahead look like and things like this or Torvik remove my personal bias from the equation and give me a reasonable picture of what the future may hold if everything stays 'steady'. I don't think any reasonable person thinks this or anything similar is absolute.
It isn't the reasonable people who concern me.

The proliferation of these metrics is (at least in part) due to the fact that people love to argue about them and discuss them and like most things surrounding sports these days...gambling.

Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 03:55 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #51  
Old 01-09-2023, 04:11 PM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
Fair enough but NET tells us the same thing since UD was highest entering the conference season. Many other prediction methods do the same thing using different metrics and weighting. This is just another one of those and not better or worse necessarily.

There are so many of these out there, it just comes down to either which are you going to trust or how many have to tell you the same thing before I will trust it.

I have a hard time understanding how a prediction tool worth considering could be rating UD as 70% likely 3 games in with this team having been so up and down.

It's like the pre-season top 25 in NCAAF that are so far from accurate for about 75% of the teams by year's end that it really has little predictive value until at least half way thru the season.

I'm also wondering if this model takes the imbalanced schedules into consideration when determining this? Since we play the other top teams twice and others play the weaker twice, is that a consideration when creating their pcts?

I'm a data guy in my job so I guess I just define value differently and have a hard time changing that when wearing my fan hat.



All that is true, my guess is that if you looked at Ken Pom, Torvik, KPI, or anything else similar that would yield similar results at the macro level. Focus in on a handful of teams and you would see differences, but overall my assumption is they are similar (though I've never really looked much at the differences overall, other than where UD sits). I'm pretty sure all would tell you that overall, teams are fairly well connected at this point based upon the amount of games played overall. I believe KenPom drops its preseason rankings slowly and by around game 12, any preseason numbers baked into his ratings are gone. Torvik also does the same thing with his preseason rankings, but factors them out a bit quicker (I want to say around game 8 they are all gone, I've read Torvik commment on this at some point 2-3 years ago, can't recall the exact numbers other than Torvik considers all teams connected quicker). Jeff Sagrain does his same thing.


Yes, I'd venture a guess that most of these analytical sites have gained popularity due to gambling. Unless you were a coach or reporter, why would you pay for KenPom unless you planned to gain from it (short of the handful of people that just love numbers). Since I don't gamble on college basketball, I've felt the desire to pay for KenPom's stuff, and Torvik offers his for free which satisfies my nerdy number side just fine


At the end of the day, they are just prediction tools that take the emotion out of things by just looking at numbers. They can't factor in how an injury will impact a team for a stretch or how team chemistry can derail an otherwise talented team mid season.
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 01-12-2023, 10:23 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/11:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            80.27% 12.93%  4.14%  1.58%  0.65%  0.28%  0.09%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.31    98.92%100.00%
Saint Louis        7.92% 23.97% 21.50% 16.66% 11.89%  7.95%  4.58%  2.66%  1.49%  0.79%  0.37%  0.16%  0.06%  0.06%  0.02%        3.76    70.05% 98.61%
Richmond           5.69% 25.90% 20.91% 15.71% 12.02%  8.32%  5.14%  2.95%  1.67%  0.87%  0.51%  0.21%  0.08%  0.08%  0.03%        3.87    68.20% 98.30%
Duquesne           1.66% 15.05% 19.64% 19.68% 15.62% 11.01%  7.23%  4.40%  2.64%  1.61%  0.87%  0.37%  0.16%  0.16%  0.05%        4.57    56.04% 96.94%
VCU                3.01% 11.68% 13.95% 15.74% 16.55% 14.28%  9.75%  6.34%  4.00%  2.35%  1.27%  0.68%  0.28%  0.28%  0.10%        5.08    44.39% 95.31%
George Mason       1.11%  7.06% 11.79% 15.13% 16.92% 16.50% 11.98%  8.07%  5.11%  3.09%  1.78%  0.87%  0.42%  0.42%  0.15%        5.61    35.09% 93.65%
St. Bonaventure    0.09%  0.79%  2.05%  3.90%  6.02%  8.87% 12.01% 12.96% 12.98% 11.81% 10.04%  8.00%  5.65%  5.65%  3.50%        9.02     6.83% 59.67%
Davidson           0.02%  0.45%  1.31%  2.84%  5.42%  8.68% 12.99% 14.75% 14.01% 12.97% 10.40%  7.71%  5.14%  5.14%  2.55%        9.04     4.61% 60.46%
George Washington  0.15%  1.25%  2.47%  4.23%  6.20%  8.57% 10.77% 12.32% 12.33% 11.66% 10.35%  8.31%  6.05%  6.05%  3.86%        9.04     8.10% 58.29%
Massachusetts      0.06%  0.64%  1.36%  2.43%  4.02%  6.19%  8.68% 10.88% 12.40% 12.57% 12.26% 10.73%  8.55%  8.55%  6.11%        9.90     4.50% 46.66%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.14%  0.45%  1.06%  2.30%  4.49%  7.19%  9.40% 11.11% 12.19% 12.66% 12.64% 11.39% 11.39%  9.13%       10.68     1.65% 36.15%
La Salle           0.00%  0.07%  0.22%  0.53%  1.20%  2.42%  4.69%  7.00%  9.35% 11.38% 13.38% 14.70% 14.31% 14.31% 12.38%       11.38     0.82% 25.47%
Fordham            0.00%  0.06%  0.18%  0.45%  0.97%  1.83%  3.40%  5.29%  7.64%  9.87% 12.55% 14.97% 16.80% 16.80% 15.95%       11.82     0.70% 19.83%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.16%  0.42%  0.98%  1.76%  3.03%  4.72%  6.80% 10.17% 15.21% 15.21% 23.44%       12.91     0.07%  6.41%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.07%  0.21%  0.53%  1.19%  2.23%  4.13%  6.77% 10.51% 15.92% 15.92% 22.73%       13.06     0.05%  4.27%
Reply With Quote
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
CoffeeCan (01-12-2023), CT Flyer (01-12-2023), Radar (01-12-2023), rollo (01-12-2023), UDEE79 (01-12-2023)
  #53  
Old 01-12-2023, 11:26 AM
CoffeeCan's Avatar
CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
CoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/11:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            80.27% 12.93%  4.14%  1.58%  0.65%  0.28%  0.09%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.31    98.92%100.00%
Saint Louis        7.92% 23.97% 21.50% 16.66% 11.89%  7.95%  4.58%  2.66%  1.49%  0.79%  0.37%  0.16%  0.06%  0.06%  0.02%        3.76    70.05% 98.61%
Richmond           5.69% 25.90% 20.91% 15.71% 12.02%  8.32%  5.14%  2.95%  1.67%  0.87%  0.51%  0.21%  0.08%  0.08%  0.03%        3.87    68.20% 98.30%
Duquesne           1.66% 15.05% 19.64% 19.68% 15.62% 11.01%  7.23%  4.40%  2.64%  1.61%  0.87%  0.37%  0.16%  0.16%  0.05%        4.57    56.04% 96.94%
VCU                3.01% 11.68% 13.95% 15.74% 16.55% 14.28%  9.75%  6.34%  4.00%  2.35%  1.27%  0.68%  0.28%  0.28%  0.10%        5.08    44.39% 95.31%
George Mason       1.11%  7.06% 11.79% 15.13% 16.92% 16.50% 11.98%  8.07%  5.11%  3.09%  1.78%  0.87%  0.42%  0.42%  0.15%        5.61    35.09% 93.65%
St. Bonaventure    0.09%  0.79%  2.05%  3.90%  6.02%  8.87% 12.01% 12.96% 12.98% 11.81% 10.04%  8.00%  5.65%  5.65%  3.50%        9.02     6.83% 59.67%
Davidson           0.02%  0.45%  1.31%  2.84%  5.42%  8.68% 12.99% 14.75% 14.01% 12.97% 10.40%  7.71%  5.14%  5.14%  2.55%        9.04     4.61% 60.46%
George Washington  0.15%  1.25%  2.47%  4.23%  6.20%  8.57% 10.77% 12.32% 12.33% 11.66% 10.35%  8.31%  6.05%  6.05%  3.86%        9.04     8.10% 58.29%
Massachusetts      0.06%  0.64%  1.36%  2.43%  4.02%  6.19%  8.68% 10.88% 12.40% 12.57% 12.26% 10.73%  8.55%  8.55%  6.11%        9.90     4.50% 46.66%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.14%  0.45%  1.06%  2.30%  4.49%  7.19%  9.40% 11.11% 12.19% 12.66% 12.64% 11.39% 11.39%  9.13%       10.68     1.65% 36.15%
La Salle           0.00%  0.07%  0.22%  0.53%  1.20%  2.42%  4.69%  7.00%  9.35% 11.38% 13.38% 14.70% 14.31% 14.31% 12.38%       11.38     0.82% 25.47%
Fordham            0.00%  0.06%  0.18%  0.45%  0.97%  1.83%  3.40%  5.29%  7.64%  9.87% 12.55% 14.97% 16.80% 16.80% 15.95%       11.82     0.70% 19.83%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.16%  0.42%  0.98%  1.76%  3.03%  4.72%  6.80% 10.17% 15.21% 15.21% 23.44%       12.91     0.07%  6.41%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.07%  0.21%  0.53%  1.19%  2.23%  4.13%  6.77% 10.51% 15.92% 15.92% 22.73%       13.06     0.05%  4.27%
Great data.

In other words, pretty much a 99% chance of a double bye...
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
rollo (01-12-2023)
  #54  
Old 01-16-2023, 10:10 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/14:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            57.35% 22.91% 10.64%  4.95%  2.39%  1.08%  0.42%  0.18%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.78    95.85% 99.98%
Saint Louis       17.25% 23.85% 20.65% 15.70% 10.74%  6.15%  3.05%  1.46%  0.67%  0.29%  0.13%  0.05%  0.01%  0.01%  0.00%        3.24    77.46% 99.53%
VCU               15.10% 19.66% 17.57% 15.78% 12.56%  8.95%  5.10%  2.72%  1.40%  0.66%  0.31%  0.13%  0.05%  0.05%  0.01%        3.70    68.11% 98.84%
Duquesne           3.69% 13.28% 18.06% 18.34% 15.93% 12.22%  7.99%  4.90%  2.82%  1.51%  0.74%  0.37%  0.12%  0.12%  0.04%        4.62    53.36% 97.21%
Richmond           4.27% 11.82% 15.46% 16.49% 15.94% 13.78%  9.43%  5.74%  3.25%  1.89%  1.04%  0.54%  0.24%  0.24%  0.10%        4.87    48.04% 96.18%
George Mason       1.77%  5.82% 10.76% 15.10% 18.16% 18.05% 12.95%  7.78%  4.59%  2.53%  1.37%  0.68%  0.31%  0.31%  0.11%        5.56    33.45% 94.99%
St. Bonaventure    0.31%  1.31%  3.15%  5.82%  9.25% 12.56% 15.07% 14.29% 12.08%  9.49%  7.00%  4.86%  2.90%  2.90%  1.51%        7.97    10.59% 73.84%
Massachusetts      0.15%  0.69%  1.67%  2.98%  4.88%  7.45% 10.56% 12.82% 13.23% 12.47% 11.11%  9.20%  6.91%  6.91%  4.53%        9.43     5.48% 54.41%
Davidson           0.02%  0.17%  0.51%  1.28%  2.81%  5.81% 11.45% 14.65% 15.49% 14.14% 12.06%  9.55%  7.07%  7.07%  4.29%        9.75     1.97% 52.17%
George Washington  0.07%  0.33%  0.94%  1.94%  3.59%  5.81%  8.56% 11.04% 12.41% 12.91% 12.46% 11.37%  9.72%  9.72%  7.28%       10.16     3.27% 44.68%
Fordham            0.01%  0.08%  0.27%  0.68%  1.35%  2.72%  5.08%  7.86% 10.46% 12.99% 14.89% 15.44% 13.71% 13.71%  9.71%       11.14     1.05% 28.50%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.06%  0.21%  0.56%  1.38%  2.97%  5.26%  7.76% 10.06% 12.16% 13.44% 13.88% 13.83% 13.83% 11.98%       11.23     0.85% 28.28%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.08%  0.20%  0.56%  1.27%  2.66%  4.54%  6.87%  9.02% 11.64% 14.54% 18.19% 18.19% 19.69%       12.17     0.30% 16.20%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.01%  0.05%  0.18%  0.45%  1.15%  2.34%  4.04%  6.06%  8.73% 11.33% 14.60% 17.89% 17.89% 22.23%       12.31     0.23% 14.27%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.03%  0.08%  0.24%  0.57%  1.20%  2.48%  4.80%  9.05%  9.05% 18.52%       13.62     0.00%  0.92%
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
Rick Scaia (01-16-2023)
  #55  
Old 01-16-2023, 11:46 AM
CoffeeCan's Avatar
CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
CoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond repute
Still 96% likely to get a double bye... that is what we are working for now. Just get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney and then win those three games...
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 01-19-2023, 10:27 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/18:

Code:

Dayton            54.74% 25.94% 11.66%  4.58%  1.89%  0.76%  0.29%  0.10%  0.03%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.77    96.93% 99.99%
Saint Louis       17.27% 24.68% 23.83% 16.42%  9.91%  4.42%  1.96%  0.90%  0.37%  0.15%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.07    82.20% 99.76%
VCU               21.56% 24.99% 18.87% 14.02%  9.89%  5.40%  2.84%  1.33%  0.65%  0.27%  0.12%  0.04%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.07    79.44% 99.56%
Richmond           3.97% 11.85% 17.70% 18.98% 16.38% 11.96%  8.19%  5.18%  2.93%  1.56%  0.73%  0.37%  0.15%  0.04%  0.00%        4.66    52.49% 97.14%
Duquesne           1.56%  8.15% 15.33% 19.45% 18.57% 14.20%  9.56%  6.01%  3.53%  1.97%  0.97%  0.47%  0.17%  0.06%  0.01%        5.06    44.49% 96.36%
George Mason       0.32%  1.51%  4.29%  8.43% 12.63% 16.57% 17.43% 14.56% 10.00%  6.50%  4.01%  2.24%  1.09%  0.38%  0.05%        6.97    14.55% 85.75%
St. Bonaventure    0.32%  1.60%  4.29%  8.73% 13.08% 16.38% 15.23% 12.48%  9.78%  7.22%  5.11%  3.14%  1.80%  0.72%  0.12%        7.11    14.95% 81.89%
George Washington  0.22%  0.90%  2.35%  4.93%  7.91% 11.35% 13.12% 13.14% 12.32% 10.83%  8.56%  6.76%  4.77%  2.52%  0.33%        8.30     8.40% 66.23%
Davidson           0.01%  0.09%  0.44%  1.30%  2.88%  5.66%  9.48% 13.09% 15.17% 14.97% 13.20% 10.47%  7.79%  4.75%  0.71%        9.62     1.83% 48.10%
Massachusetts      0.03%  0.16%  0.68%  1.54%  2.92%  4.89%  7.33% 10.33% 12.95% 13.89% 13.69% 12.20% 10.28%  6.94%  2.18%       10.02     2.41% 40.82%
Fordham            0.00%  0.06%  0.28%  0.76%  1.63%  3.02%  4.94%  7.48% 10.16% 13.00% 15.32% 15.90% 14.28%  9.14%  4.03%       10.79     1.11% 28.33%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.02%  0.15%  0.49%  1.10%  2.39%  4.29%  6.77%  9.49% 12.24% 15.09% 17.16% 16.49% 10.97%  3.37%       11.04     0.66% 24.70%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.03%  0.12%  0.32%  1.04%  2.58%  4.44%  6.69%  9.31% 11.69% 13.66% 15.17% 15.69% 13.35%  5.90%       11.19     0.48% 24.55%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.17%  0.40%  0.85%  1.80%  3.00%  4.86%  7.58% 12.05% 18.99% 31.12% 19.10%       12.97     0.07%  6.30%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.14%  0.33%  0.84%  1.89%  4.01%  8.49% 20.03% 64.21%       14.36     0.00%  0.53%
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
Glen Clark (01-20-2023), Radar (01-19-2023)
  #57  
Old 01-23-2023, 10:25 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/21:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            35.68% 32.70% 18.96%  7.42%  3.12%  1.31%  0.54%  0.18%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.17    94.76% 99.97%
VCU               38.70% 27.33% 16.32%  8.55%  4.65%  2.36%  1.17%  0.52%  0.24%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.30    90.90% 99.83%
Saint Louis       21.71% 25.04% 25.51% 14.17%  7.10%  3.49%  1.56%  0.80%  0.35%  0.19%  0.07%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.85    86.43% 99.73%
Richmond           1.83%  5.95% 13.52% 18.92% 17.62% 14.05% 10.83%  7.26%  4.56%  2.78%  1.54%  0.77%  0.27%  0.10%  0.02%        5.36    40.21% 94.53%
Duquesne           0.62%  3.34%  8.83% 15.05% 17.44% 15.98% 13.38% 10.00%  6.68%  4.18%  2.43%  1.28%  0.56%  0.19%  0.04%        6.05    27.85% 91.32%
George Mason       0.54%  2.35%  6.81% 13.78% 16.52% 17.30% 15.39% 11.54%  7.25%  4.37%  2.41%  1.13%  0.45%  0.14%  0.02%        6.24    23.48% 91.47%
George Washington  0.73%  2.18%  5.42%  9.86% 12.32% 13.34% 12.75% 11.93% 10.47%  8.28%  5.81%  3.82%  2.18%  0.82%  0.08%        7.15    18.20% 79.01%
St. Bonaventure    0.15%  0.77%  2.66%  6.80% 10.15% 12.59% 13.66% 13.50% 12.10% 10.22%  7.50%  5.31%  3.11%  1.21%  0.26%        7.85    10.39% 72.39%
Davidson           0.01%  0.08%  0.55%  1.36%  3.15%  5.83%  9.37% 12.77% 14.62% 13.98% 12.84% 10.66%  8.43%  5.24%  1.11%        9.66     2.01% 47.75%
Fordham            0.03%  0.16%  0.82%  2.08%  3.77%  5.89%  8.09% 10.36% 12.76% 14.28% 13.82% 12.20%  9.17%  4.81%  1.76%        9.74     3.09% 43.96%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.03%  0.25%  0.80%  1.73%  3.25%  5.23%  7.74% 11.05% 14.51% 17.13% 16.56% 12.92%  6.77%  2.03%       10.56     1.08% 30.07%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.05%  0.32%  1.01%  1.88%  3.18%  4.94%  7.46% 10.02% 12.67% 14.85% 16.12% 14.33%  9.45%  3.74%       10.76     1.37% 28.85%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.38%  1.09%  2.29%  4.32%  6.98%  9.14% 11.99% 15.15% 18.94% 17.98% 11.55%       11.99     0.19% 15.24%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.05%  0.16%  0.35%  0.72%  1.43%  2.39%  4.12%  6.95% 11.62% 18.65% 29.35% 24.22%       13.15     0.05%  5.10%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.08%  0.19%  0.49%  1.16%  2.62%  5.32% 10.99% 23.95% 55.18%       14.17     0.00%  0.79%
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
rollo (01-23-2023)
  #58  
Old 01-23-2023, 12:11 PM
Marysville Flyer's Avatar
Marysville Flyer Marysville Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,108
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,749 Times in 791 Posts
Marysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeMarysville Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Still 96% likely to get a double bye... that is what we are working for now. Just get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney and then win those three games...
Wasn't long ago we were 80% to win it and now we are 35%. 96% prediction to get the double bye the way this team has played the last 3 games shows the worthlessness of these predictions this early.

Bet away.
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 01-23-2023, 12:47 PM
CoffeeCan's Avatar
CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
CoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond repute
Still 95%. Doesnt matter if we are #1 or #4, just get the double bye.

How many years were we the #1 or #2 seed and yet did not win the A10 tourney?
Reply With Quote
  #60  
Old 01-23-2023, 12:48 PM
flyer016 flyer016 is offline
Major
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 624
Thanks: 624
Thanked 596 Times in 277 Posts
flyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant futureflyer016 has a brilliant future
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
Wasn't long ago we were 80% to win it and now we are 35%. 96% prediction to get the double bye the way this team has played the last 3 games shows the worthlessness of these predictions this early.

Bet away.
Do you people understand how math works?

Anybody that criticizes these probabilities needs to sit down with a math textbook before they comment in this thread again.

If I flip a coin four times and each time it lands on heads, are you going to criticize me telling you it's 50-50 each flip?

There are additional metrics baked into this, but it's an exercise in efficiencies and probabilities. If you don't like KenPom numbers, that's cool. If you don't like probabilities, that's fine. But can folks stop coming into this thread and being ****y about the numbers? Everybody with two brain cells knows these aren't gospel. They're interesting all the same.
Reply With Quote
9 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to flyer016 For This Totally Excellent Post:
ClaytonFlyerFan (01-23-2023), flyerfanatic86 (01-24-2023), FlyingArrow (01-23-2023), Glen Clark (01-23-2023), hawkoooo (01-23-2023), m21eagle45 (01-24-2023), shocka43 (01-23-2023), UDEE79 (01-23-2023), UDGutter2 (01-23-2023)
  #61  
Old 01-23-2023, 01:48 PM
hawkoooo's Avatar
hawkoooo hawkoooo is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, SC
Posts: 2,970
Thanks: 1,007
Thanked 1,764 Times in 929 Posts
hawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond reputehawkoooo has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by flyer016 View Post
Do you people understand how math works?
Marysville Flyer does not.
Reply With Quote
  #62  
Old 01-23-2023, 09:14 PM
TommyGola's Avatar
TommyGola TommyGola is offline
General
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 5,924
Thanks: 1,602
Thanked 2,810 Times in 1,546 Posts
TommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond reputeTommyGola has a reputation beyond repute
This is essentially analytics, and its purest form, the above probabilities are correct. What analytics does not capture are trends in performance. Our trend is not our friend today. In each of the last three games we seemed to have morphed back into a slow offense with perimeter passing, little of an inside-outside game, essentially no dribble penetration, and a big man in Holmes who is now bottled up and unable to finish. Additionally, the Flyers were really exposed by dribble-penetration against a mediocre GW team. Prospective rivals are aware of this and we can expect more.
Reply With Quote
  #63  
Old 01-24-2023, 11:34 AM
N2663R N2663R is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 2,319
Thanks: 4
Thanked 1,489 Times in 764 Posts
N2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond reputeN2663R has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Marysville Flyer does not.
Neither do you. You fail to recognize that it's equality of outcome that is the only thing that matters. No team in the A10 should have more than a 6.66666666666% chance at a 1 seed. In fact, each team should have a double bye, regardless of their record, that way . . . Sorry, I just couldn't resist.
Reply With Quote
  #64  
Old 01-26-2023, 12:25 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/25:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               62.45% 23.36%  8.68%  3.38%  1.24%  0.51%  0.24%  0.09%  0.04%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.61    97.86% 99.98%
Saint Louis       23.30% 33.22% 22.53% 10.27%  5.22%  2.68%  1.41%  0.73%  0.39%  0.17%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.62    89.32% 99.74%
Dayton            11.51% 30.18% 28.81% 15.23%  7.33%  3.56%  1.75%  0.86%  0.47%  0.18%  0.10%  0.03%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.04    85.72% 99.68%
George Washington  1.43%  4.65% 11.50% 14.88% 14.02% 12.66% 10.57%  8.98%  7.41%  5.59%  3.97%  2.51%  1.42%  0.40%  0.02%        6.17    32.45% 86.10%
Duquesne           0.51%  2.47%  7.03% 13.09% 14.97% 14.59% 13.18% 11.04%  8.63%  6.47%  4.20%  2.43%  1.08%  0.29%  0.02%        6.58    23.10% 85.50%
George Mason       0.11%  1.45%  6.13% 13.15% 16.15% 16.09% 14.03% 11.22%  8.44%  5.89%  3.76%  2.18%  1.08%  0.31%  0.03%        6.60    20.84% 86.77%
Richmond           0.40%  2.62%  7.27% 12.49% 14.18% 14.00% 12.61% 10.83%  8.81%  6.80%  4.83%  3.07%  1.49%  0.54%  0.09%        6.73    22.77% 83.19%
Fordham            0.26%  1.38%  4.65%  8.87% 11.13% 12.18% 12.59% 12.23% 11.05%  9.33%  7.25%  5.25%  2.89%  0.80%  0.14%        7.54    15.15% 74.33%
Davidson           0.02%  0.21%  0.98%  2.47%  4.50%  6.94%  9.54% 11.66% 12.86% 13.42% 13.29% 11.99%  9.24%  2.64%  0.27%        9.38     3.67% 49.16%
St. Bonaventure    0.02%  0.19%  1.02%  2.65%  4.52%  5.90%  7.76%  9.77% 11.35% 13.03% 13.83% 13.41% 11.25%  4.44%  0.87%        9.71     3.87% 43.17%
Massachusetts      0.01%  0.22%  1.08%  2.40%  4.09%  5.81%  7.86%  9.56% 11.50% 12.63% 13.43% 13.02% 11.25%  5.78%  1.37%        9.81     3.70% 42.53%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.02%  0.12%  0.62%  1.43%  2.70%  4.35%  6.39%  9.08% 12.41% 15.79% 18.79% 18.40%  8.09%  1.81%       10.92     0.76% 24.71%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.05%  0.21%  0.49%  1.15%  2.20%  3.71%  5.87%  8.51% 11.30% 14.17% 16.89% 19.14% 11.66%  4.65%       11.25     0.76% 22.19%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.03%  0.08%  0.19%  0.37%  0.69%  1.24%  2.26%  4.13%  7.59% 15.42% 40.81% 27.19%       13.60     0.03%  2.60%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.08%  0.23%  0.50%  1.20%  2.83%  7.32% 24.24% 63.55%       14.43     0.00%  0.36%
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
rollo (01-26-2023)
  #65  
Old 01-26-2023, 01:39 PM
CoffeeCan's Avatar
CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
CoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond repute
98% for double bye...
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
rollo (01-26-2023)
  #66  
Old 01-26-2023, 03:30 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
98% for double bye...
No, 86% now.
Reply With Quote
  #67  
Old 01-26-2023, 03:37 PM
CoffeeCan's Avatar
CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
CoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
No, 86% now.
Oh ****, I was adding up the top line... I didnt look to see that it was no longer us... maybe wishful thinking
Reply With Quote
  #68  
Old 01-30-2023, 10:37 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 1/29:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Saint Louis       38.65% 29.02% 20.47%  7.30%  2.60%  1.11%  0.47%  0.20%  0.11%  0.04%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.14    95.45% 99.94%
VCU               36.52% 30.10% 17.63%  8.04%  3.84%  1.93%  0.98%  0.49%  0.25%  0.12%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.28    92.29% 99.79%
Dayton            22.95% 31.08% 28.97%  9.92%  4.01%  1.69%  0.78%  0.35%  0.15%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.53    92.91% 99.90%
Fordham            0.74%  2.90%  8.84% 17.52% 15.50% 12.76% 10.43%  8.53%  6.88%  5.59%  4.64%  3.33%  2.03%  0.30%  0.03%        6.38    29.99% 84.08%
George Washington  0.67%  3.19%  7.69% 12.84% 14.14% 12.50% 11.32%  9.72%  8.27%  6.62%  5.38%  4.22%  2.68%  0.74%  0.02%        6.80    24.39% 80.34%
Duquesne           0.20%  1.05%  4.13% 10.08% 12.21% 13.37% 12.60% 11.86% 10.46%  8.79%  7.05%  5.00%  2.48%  0.71%  0.03%        7.42    15.45% 75.93%
Richmond           0.09%  0.85%  3.77% 10.36% 11.77% 11.97% 11.62% 11.05% 10.57%  9.81%  8.33%  5.75%  2.89%  1.00%  0.18%        7.63    15.07% 72.05%
St. Bonaventure    0.12%  0.95%  3.64%  8.30% 10.63% 11.40% 11.83% 11.08% 10.12%  9.63%  8.60%  7.09%  5.12%  1.37%  0.13%        7.94    13.00% 68.06%
George Mason       0.02%  0.31%  1.88%  6.34%  9.10% 10.81% 11.63% 12.69% 12.55% 11.71%  9.93%  7.48%  4.22%  1.19%  0.16%        8.28     8.54% 65.32%
Massachusetts      0.04%  0.33%  1.58%  3.90%  6.04%  7.61%  9.19% 10.37% 11.41% 12.25% 12.42% 11.72%  9.03%  3.49%  0.63%        9.22     5.85% 50.47%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.12%  0.81%  2.85%  5.28%  7.52%  9.09% 10.76% 11.77% 12.49% 13.10% 12.76% 10.25%  2.83%  0.35%        9.42     3.79% 48.22%
Davidson           0.00%  0.03%  0.33%  1.73%  3.32%  4.75%  6.21%  7.51%  9.46% 11.48% 13.87% 17.56% 18.98%  4.38%  0.38%       10.34     2.09% 33.34%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.07%  0.28%  0.81%  1.52%  2.44%  3.59%  4.90%  7.05%  9.81% 13.52% 18.60% 25.62%  9.34%  2.45%       11.25     1.16% 20.66%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.06%  0.13%  0.23%  0.43%  0.82%  1.29%  2.44%  4.66% 10.57% 49.07% 30.30%       13.88     0.02%  1.67%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.06%  0.14%  0.29%  0.63%  1.78%  6.11% 25.59% 65.36%       14.51     0.00%  0.24%
Reply With Quote
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
CoffeeCan (01-30-2023), CT Flyer (01-30-2023), rollo (01-30-2023)
  #69  
Old 01-30-2023, 11:00 AM
CoffeeCan's Avatar
CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
CoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond reputeCoffeeCan has a reputation beyond repute
93% to get the double bye.... wow this is a down year for the A10
Reply With Quote
  #70  
Old 01-30-2023, 11:02 AM
flyerfanatic86's Avatar
flyerfanatic86 flyerfanatic86 is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,946
Thanks: 4,452
Thanked 1,414 Times in 671 Posts
flyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond reputeflyerfanatic86 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/29:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Saint Louis       38.65% 29.02% 20.47%  7.30%  2.60%  1.11%  0.47%  0.20%  0.11%  0.04%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.14    95.45% 99.94%
VCU               36.52% 30.10% 17.63%  8.04%  3.84%  1.93%  0.98%  0.49%  0.25%  0.12%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.28    92.29% 99.79%
Dayton            22.95% 31.08% 28.97%  9.92%  4.01%  1.69%  0.78%  0.35%  0.15%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.53    92.91% 99.90%
Fordham            0.74%  2.90%  8.84% 17.52% 15.50% 12.76% 10.43%  8.53%  6.88%  5.59%  4.64%  3.33%  2.03%  0.30%  0.03%        6.38    29.99% 84.08%
George Washington  0.67%  3.19%  7.69% 12.84% 14.14% 12.50% 11.32%  9.72%  8.27%  6.62%  5.38%  4.22%  2.68%  0.74%  0.02%        6.80    24.39% 80.34%
Duquesne           0.20%  1.05%  4.13% 10.08% 12.21% 13.37% 12.60% 11.86% 10.46%  8.79%  7.05%  5.00%  2.48%  0.71%  0.03%        7.42    15.45% 75.93%
Richmond           0.09%  0.85%  3.77% 10.36% 11.77% 11.97% 11.62% 11.05% 10.57%  9.81%  8.33%  5.75%  2.89%  1.00%  0.18%        7.63    15.07% 72.05%
St. Bonaventure    0.12%  0.95%  3.64%  8.30% 10.63% 11.40% 11.83% 11.08% 10.12%  9.63%  8.60%  7.09%  5.12%  1.37%  0.13%        7.94    13.00% 68.06%
George Mason       0.02%  0.31%  1.88%  6.34%  9.10% 10.81% 11.63% 12.69% 12.55% 11.71%  9.93%  7.48%  4.22%  1.19%  0.16%        8.28     8.54% 65.32%
Massachusetts      0.04%  0.33%  1.58%  3.90%  6.04%  7.61%  9.19% 10.37% 11.41% 12.25% 12.42% 11.72%  9.03%  3.49%  0.63%        9.22     5.85% 50.47%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.12%  0.81%  2.85%  5.28%  7.52%  9.09% 10.76% 11.77% 12.49% 13.10% 12.76% 10.25%  2.83%  0.35%        9.42     3.79% 48.22%
Davidson           0.00%  0.03%  0.33%  1.73%  3.32%  4.75%  6.21%  7.51%  9.46% 11.48% 13.87% 17.56% 18.98%  4.38%  0.38%       10.34     2.09% 33.34%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.07%  0.28%  0.81%  1.52%  2.44%  3.59%  4.90%  7.05%  9.81% 13.52% 18.60% 25.62%  9.34%  2.45%       11.25     1.16% 20.66%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.06%  0.13%  0.23%  0.43%  0.82%  1.29%  2.44%  4.66% 10.57% 49.07% 30.30%       13.88     0.02%  1.67%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.06%  0.14%  0.29%  0.63%  1.78%  6.11% 25.59% 65.36%       14.51     0.00%  0.24%
Fordham, GW, and Duquesne in the mix for the double bye. What a world.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to flyerfanatic86 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (02-13-2023)
  #71  
Old 01-30-2023, 01:45 PM
Glen Clark Glen Clark is offline
General
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Between Kroger & Esther Price
Posts: 5,728
Thanks: 9,093
Thanked 4,525 Times in 2,050 Posts
Glen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond reputeGlen Clark has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 View Post
Fordham, GW, and Duquesne in the mix for the double bye. What a world.

Flyers hold the tie-breaker over Duquesne, lose the tie-breaker to GW, with Fordham yet to be determined.
Fordham could be the sleeper of the A10 this year.

_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
Reply With Quote
  #72  
Old 01-30-2023, 03:29 PM
m21eagle45's Avatar
m21eagle45 m21eagle45 is offline
Major General
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,616
Thanks: 3,383
Thanked 3,108 Times in 1,418 Posts
m21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond reputem21eagle45 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Flyers hold the tie-breaker over Duquesne, lose the tie-breaker to GW, with Fordham yet to be determined.
Fordham could be the sleeper of the A10 this year.

_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
We beat Fordham Jan 10 at Fordham. Would have the tie-breaker over them.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to m21eagle45 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Glen Clark (01-30-2023)
  #73  
Old 02-02-2023, 03:19 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 2/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               51.80% 26.71% 12.26%  5.17%  2.44%  0.96%  0.41%  0.15%  0.07%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.86    95.94% 99.97%
Saint Louis       24.56% 29.42% 24.63% 13.77%  4.53%  1.77%  0.75%  0.33%  0.14%  0.08%  0.03%  0.01%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.56    92.38% 99.88%
Dayton            20.86% 32.71% 26.95% 10.45%  5.12%  2.23%  0.98%  0.42%  0.19%  0.06%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.61    90.98% 99.92%
Fordham            1.98%  6.19% 17.42% 25.02% 16.30% 10.78%  7.59%  5.38%  3.80%  2.49%  1.68%  0.92%  0.40%  0.06%  0.01%        5.04    50.61% 94.45%
St. Bonaventure    0.41%  2.18%  6.84% 14.28% 19.39% 16.77% 13.06%  9.39%  6.61%  4.88%  3.11%  1.86%  0.93%  0.30%  0.02%        6.28    23.70% 88.92%
Duquesne           0.16%  1.03%  3.98%  8.99% 13.21% 14.19% 13.29% 12.00% 10.31%  8.44%  6.75%  4.32%  2.34%  0.94%  0.05%        7.38    14.16% 77.16%
George Mason       0.02%  0.45%  2.49%  7.22% 10.40% 13.24% 14.86% 15.18% 13.46% 10.10%  6.60%  3.72%  1.62%  0.57%  0.06%        7.63    10.19% 77.33%
George Washington  0.17%  0.88%  2.76%  6.41% 11.00% 12.62% 12.85% 11.88% 10.57%  9.47%  8.00%  6.67%  4.71%  1.93%  0.08%        7.99    10.23% 69.15%
Saint Joseph's     0.02%  0.16%  1.01%  3.49%  7.63% 11.04% 13.06% 14.12% 13.90% 12.26% 10.45%  7.76%  3.72%  1.26%  0.13%        8.50     4.68% 64.43%
Richmond           0.01%  0.11%  0.82%  2.60%  4.85%  7.54%  9.71% 11.52% 12.95% 14.31% 14.79% 10.56%  6.27%  3.17%  0.77%        9.29     3.55% 50.13%
Massachusetts      0.01%  0.12%  0.67%  1.67%  2.96%  4.77%  6.79%  9.57% 12.72% 15.28% 14.98% 13.07% 10.10%  6.00%  1.30%       10.00     2.47% 39.27%
Davidson           0.00%  0.00%  0.06%  0.62%  1.45%  2.58%  3.97%  5.54%  7.85% 10.58% 14.28% 19.76% 21.94% 10.21%  1.19%       11.14     0.68% 22.06%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.02%  0.09%  0.30%  0.62%  1.15%  2.00%  3.31%  5.10%  8.38% 12.87% 20.14% 25.91% 15.00%  5.10%       11.88     0.41% 12.60%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.11%  0.36%  0.66%  1.15%  2.22%  3.35%  5.62%  9.14% 15.89% 41.72% 19.74%       13.28     0.03%  4.54%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.05%  0.13%  0.31%  0.82%  2.08%  6.17% 18.85% 71.56%       14.56     0.00%  0.20%
Reply With Quote
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
ClaytonFlyerFan (02-02-2023), CT Flyer (02-02-2023), mikeymo85 (02-02-2023), rollo (02-02-2023)
  #74  
Old 02-06-2023, 11:00 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 2/5:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               82.92% 12.04%  3.21%  1.12%  0.52%  0.14%  0.04%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.25    99.29%100.00%
Dayton             7.17% 34.81% 23.61% 17.89%  9.17%  4.20%  1.81%  0.78%  0.34%  0.13%  0.07%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.15    83.48% 99.78%
Saint Louis        7.47% 34.98% 24.66% 15.68%  8.72%  4.77%  2.25%  0.89%  0.36%  0.15%  0.05%  0.03%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.15    82.79% 99.77%
St. Bonaventure    1.12%  7.96% 19.11% 21.36% 20.10% 13.45%  7.58%  4.51%  2.27%  1.28%  0.76%  0.33%  0.13%  0.04%  0.00%        4.78    49.55% 97.46%
Fordham            0.79%  5.23% 14.86% 17.00% 15.99% 13.20% 10.57%  8.40%  5.71%  3.70%  2.41%  1.28%  0.64%  0.20%  0.03%        5.66    37.88% 91.74%
Duquesne           0.49%  4.20%  9.91% 14.58% 18.46% 18.27% 13.08%  8.62%  5.38%  3.33%  1.93%  1.04%  0.55%  0.15%  0.01%        5.84    29.18% 92.99%
Richmond           0.01%  0.31%  1.73%  4.16%  8.79% 12.96% 14.75% 13.87% 11.97% 10.20%  7.97%  6.18%  4.34%  2.17%  0.59%        8.26     6.21% 68.55%
George Mason       0.00%  0.20%  1.09%  2.91%  6.68% 11.66% 14.68% 15.17% 14.39% 11.86%  9.11%  6.32%  3.88%  1.79%  0.26%        8.46     4.20% 66.78%
Davidson           0.00%  0.04%  0.51%  1.95%  3.80%  5.98%  8.96% 12.50% 14.80% 15.25% 13.36% 10.58%  7.77%  4.02%  0.46%        9.51     2.50% 48.55%
George Washington  0.02%  0.16%  0.80%  1.69%  3.55%  6.69% 10.66% 12.31% 13.21% 13.18% 12.09% 10.69%  8.64%  5.66%  0.65%        9.54     2.66% 49.09%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.02%  0.13%  0.61%  1.98%  4.28%  7.69% 10.19% 12.32% 13.79% 15.31% 14.33% 11.07%  6.64%  1.65%       10.24     0.76% 37.22%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.03%  0.19%  0.54%  1.01%  1.75%  2.97%  4.48%  6.75%  9.54% 12.67% 16.14% 18.33% 18.76%  6.86%       11.68     0.76% 17.70%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.02%  0.16%  0.34%  0.70%  1.39%  2.59%  4.34%  6.54%  8.99% 11.48% 15.01% 19.18% 18.60% 10.66%       11.91     0.52% 16.08%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.04%  0.19%  0.54%  1.23%  2.30%  3.75%  5.57%  7.75% 10.95% 14.17% 17.49% 23.38% 12.64%       12.19     0.23% 13.62%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.03%  0.07%  0.18%  0.39%  0.84%  1.83%  3.90%  7.98% 18.59% 66.19%       14.38     0.00%  0.68%
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
ClaytonFlyerFan (02-06-2023), mikeymo85 (02-06-2023)
  #75  
Old 02-06-2023, 01:23 PM
UD62 UD62 is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,110
Thanks: 1,953
Thanked 2,457 Times in 1,283 Posts
UD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond reputeUD62 has a reputation beyond repute
Looking at the schedules, SBU probably has a better chance that the Flyers.
Reply With Quote
  #76  
Old 02-09-2023, 10:52 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 2/8:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               60.10% 26.19%  8.25%  3.45%  1.35%  0.47%  0.14%  0.04%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.62    97.99%100.00%
Dayton            26.01% 43.42% 19.02%  7.22%  2.75%  1.06%  0.34%  0.14%  0.04%  0.01%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.23    95.67% 99.98%
Saint Louis       10.89% 19.54% 31.94% 22.02% 10.34%  3.26%  1.25%  0.50%  0.18%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.20    84.39% 99.92%
Fordham            1.62%  5.19% 19.82% 25.61% 18.88% 11.32%  6.82%  4.72%  2.76%  1.69%  0.95%  0.42%  0.15%  0.04%  0.00%        4.82    52.24% 96.74%
Duquesne           1.12%  4.32% 14.12% 22.09% 23.13% 16.23%  8.43%  4.80%  2.62%  1.41%  0.92%  0.52%  0.25%  0.04%  0.00%        5.09    41.64% 96.86%
St. Bonaventure    0.18%  1.03%  4.47% 10.81% 19.08% 20.29% 15.83% 10.62%  6.97%  4.84%  3.18%  1.67%  0.77%  0.25%  0.00%        6.52    16.49% 89.29%
George Washington  0.07%  0.22%  0.84%  2.25%  5.90% 12.10% 15.07% 13.83% 13.09% 11.38%  9.17%  7.81%  5.70%  2.55%  0.02%        8.67     3.38% 63.37%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.03%  0.24%  1.13%  3.99%  9.06% 13.11% 15.06% 14.58% 13.50% 12.32%  9.74%  5.61%  1.62%  0.02%        9.06     1.40% 57.19%
Richmond           0.00%  0.03%  0.46%  1.62%  4.15%  6.95% 10.05% 12.60% 12.83% 13.18% 12.64% 11.07%  9.39%  4.42%  0.61%        9.54     2.11% 48.69%
George Mason       0.00%  0.01%  0.19%  0.62%  2.37%  5.63% 10.35% 14.28% 16.06% 15.34% 13.43% 10.94%  7.31%  3.30%  0.18%        9.56     0.82% 49.51%
Davidson           0.00%  0.01%  0.50%  2.31%  4.65%  7.03%  8.43% 10.09% 11.85% 12.58% 13.01% 11.89% 10.90%  6.54%  0.23%        9.71     2.81% 44.87%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.14%  0.59%  2.43%  4.52%  6.29%  7.44%  9.76% 11.17% 13.03% 14.44% 14.46% 13.58%  2.12%       10.72     0.75% 31.20%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.00%  0.03%  0.23%  0.75%  1.55%  2.70%  3.66%  5.46%  7.96% 10.36% 14.90% 20.24% 25.60%  6.55%       12.04     0.27% 14.38%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.05%  0.24%  0.52%  1.18%  2.19%  3.76%  6.75% 10.60% 15.63% 22.26% 31.10%  5.72%       12.46     0.06%  7.94%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.37%  0.97%  2.95% 10.96% 84.55%       14.78     0.00%  0.06%
Reply With Quote
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
ClaytonFlyerFan (02-09-2023), CT Flyer (02-09-2023), mikeymo85 (02-09-2023), Radar (02-09-2023), rollo (02-09-2023)
  #77  
Old 02-09-2023, 11:17 AM
rollo's Avatar
rollo rollo is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
rollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond repute
What's the tiebreaker formula should UD and VCU tie for 1st place? Who's the #1 seed?? Figgie??
Reply With Quote
  #78  
Old 02-09-2023, 11:23 AM
Radar Radar is offline
Major General
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 3,817
Thanks: 2,633
Thanked 2,700 Times in 1,283 Posts
Radar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by rollo View Post
What's the tiebreaker formula should UD and VCU tie for 1st place? Who's the #1 seed?? Figgie??
This is part guess, part recall...but I "thought" they start with the second place team in the standings and UD and VCU's record against them, and so on, and so on...until the tie is broken?

Edit:
https://pickinsplinters.com/2019/03/...0the%20highest
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Radar For This Totally Excellent Post:
rollo (02-09-2023)
  #79  
Old 02-09-2023, 11:30 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Radar View Post
This is part guess, part recall...but I "thought" they start with the second place team in the standings and UD and VCU's record against them, and so on, and so on...until the tie is broken?
You are correct, sir. UD is in a very good place with that as VCU also lost to the Bonnies. Probably comes down to UD beating Duquesne while VCU lost to them.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (02-13-2023)
  #80  
Old 02-09-2023, 11:35 AM
Figgie123's Avatar
Figgie123 Figgie123 is offline
I Am A Statistical God
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,503
Thanks: 4,687
Thanked 6,152 Times in 2,316 Posts
Figgie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond repute
The A10 tiebreaking rules starts at the top and goes down in groups of common records. Except that when you make a decision on a seed, let's say 1 and 2, they are no longer grouped. So, if UD/VCU are tied solely at #1, it would be winning percentage over the next group of teams.

So, currently, VCU beat SLU but UD hasn't played them. And UD beat Fordham, and VCU hasn't played them. Then we've both lost to Bonnies. But then it's Duq/GW and We beat DUQ while VCU lost, but we lost to GW and VCU hasn't played them.

So, in a weird way it's "better" to lose to bottom-feeding teams in the A10 for A10 tournament seeding procedures.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
flyerfanatic86 (02-09-2023)
  #81  
Old 02-09-2023, 11:50 AM
rollo's Avatar
rollo rollo is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
rollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond repute
So, barrign a complete collapse by UD and VCU, St. Louis has to beat VCU (2/28) and we need to sweep St. Louis.

Doable. Very doable.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (02-13-2023)
  #82  
Old 02-09-2023, 11:52 AM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
Which part Rollo? The complete collapse or the beating Slu/VCU losing to SLU?


Cause from what I've seen in A10 play both are doable, very doable.
Reply With Quote
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Medford For This Totally Excellent Post:
ClaytonFlyerFan (02-09-2023), Marysville Flyer (02-09-2023), rollo (02-09-2023)
  #83  
Old 02-09-2023, 12:25 PM
rollo's Avatar
rollo rollo is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
rollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond reputerollo has a reputation beyond repute
I think we all know the answer(s) to that.
Reply With Quote
  #84  
Old 02-13-2023, 11:32 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 2/11:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               55.71% 28.51%  9.67%  3.97%  1.47%  0.51%  0.13%  0.04%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.69    97.85%100.00%
Dayton            35.21% 47.06% 12.10%  3.82%  1.19%  0.46%  0.13%  0.03%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.91    98.19%100.00%
Saint Louis        4.75% 10.32% 26.81% 32.58% 18.30%  4.43%  1.88%  0.64%  0.19%  0.07%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.75    74.46% 99.90%
Fordham            3.29%  9.33% 33.21% 25.93% 15.35%  6.89%  3.26%  1.59%  0.73%  0.27%  0.10%  0.04%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.90    71.76% 99.58%
Duquesne           0.98%  4.34% 15.26% 22.78% 27.31% 15.34%  7.14%  3.56%  1.67%  0.80%  0.50%  0.23%  0.08%  0.01%  0.00%        4.86    43.36% 98.38%
St. Bonaventure    0.04%  0.35%  1.88%  6.18% 16.47% 24.85% 18.56% 12.10%  7.89%  5.32%  3.39%  1.82%  0.96%  0.19%  0.00%        6.88     8.44% 88.31%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.02%  0.22%  1.10%  4.88% 13.40% 17.61% 17.11% 14.94% 12.19%  9.40%  6.59%  2.41%  0.14%  0.00%        8.42     1.34% 69.27%
George Mason       0.00%  0.01%  0.15%  0.46%  1.93%  6.10% 12.35% 16.72% 18.47% 17.53% 13.78%  9.10%  3.01%  0.39%  0.01%        9.16     0.62% 56.18%
George Washington  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.62%  2.80%  9.80% 13.34% 14.01% 14.13% 12.87% 11.40%  9.86%  8.43%  2.54%  0.01%        9.26     0.81% 54.89%
Richmond           0.00%  0.01%  0.34%  1.39%  3.96%  6.47% 10.29% 14.00% 14.62% 15.74% 14.58% 10.85%  6.15%  1.58%  0.01%        9.31     1.75% 51.09%
La Salle           0.00%  0.03%  0.20%  0.88%  5.07%  8.55%  9.83% 11.24% 13.25% 14.04% 13.48% 13.17%  8.26%  1.91%  0.11%        9.41     1.10% 49.03%
Davidson           0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.26%  1.11%  2.58%  4.05%  6.44%  9.20% 11.14% 15.12% 18.85% 20.11% 10.83%  0.30%       11.06     0.28% 23.66%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.04%  0.16%  0.56%  1.27%  2.19%  4.00%  7.29% 11.61% 17.06% 23.52% 25.66%  6.65%       12.37     0.04%  8.22%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.07%  0.17%  0.35%  0.89%  2.70%  6.50% 11.87% 24.28% 44.48%  8.70%       13.22     0.00%  1.48%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.13%  0.57%  2.78% 12.28% 84.22%       14.80     0.00%  0.01%
Reply With Quote
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (02-13-2023), mikeymo85 (02-13-2023), rollo (02-13-2023), superfan99 (02-13-2023)
  #85  
Old 02-13-2023, 01:30 PM
UDGutter2's Avatar
UDGutter2 UDGutter2 is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Coldwater
Posts: 1,575
Thanks: 2,322
Thanked 1,206 Times in 542 Posts
UDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond reputeUDGutter2 has a reputation beyond repute
I'm smelling a 16 game win streak.
Reply With Quote
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to UDGutter2 For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (02-13-2023), Flyer 86 (02-13-2023), Glen Clark (02-13-2023), Jeff (02-15-2023)
  #86  
Old 02-15-2023, 11:31 AM
MrFlyerFanatic's Avatar
MrFlyerFanatic MrFlyerFanatic is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
MrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond repute
Lightbulb Big Wednesday

Although our Flyers aren't in action, today is a big day for our positioning:

VCU @ URI -
URI victory brings VCU back to us and UD moves into top seed via tie breaker (1-0 v Fordham) or VCU stretches out.
SBU @ Fordham -
SBU win gives a full game lead vs Fordham or Fordham joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
Davidson @ SLU -
Davidson win gives a full game lead vs SLU or SLU joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
St Joe @ Duquesne -
Another breathing room game cheering for SJU.
Richmond @ LaSalle and GMU @ GW are in a cluster. Their fighting amongst themselves.

Unfortunately, home courts are not in our favor (except URI).
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
Reply With Quote
8 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
Bonziflyer (02-15-2023), CT Flyer (02-15-2023), Glen Clark (02-15-2023), Jeff (02-15-2023), mikeymo85 (02-15-2023), Radar (02-15-2023), rollo (02-15-2023), Runnin' Rebel (02-15-2023)
  #87  
Old 02-15-2023, 04:05 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
Although our Flyers aren't in action, today is a big day for our positioning:

VCU @ URI -
URI victory brings VCU back to us and UD moves into top seed via tie breaker (1-0 v Fordham) or VCU stretches out.
SBU @ Fordham -
SBU win gives a full game lead vs Fordham or Fordham joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
Davidson @ SLU -
Davidson win gives a full game lead vs SLU or SLU joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
St Joe @ Duquesne -
Another breathing room game cheering for SJU.
Richmond @ LaSalle and GMU @ GW are in a cluster. Their fighting amongst themselves.

Unfortunately, home courts are not in our favor (except URI).
Would be one helluva bet. I'm sure there's someone out here that like to make those bets....not me though. I'l. stick to Vegas trips!
Reply With Quote
  #88  
Old 02-16-2023, 10:52 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 2/15:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               61.86% 25.19%  8.49%  3.29%  1.02%  0.13%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    98.83%100.00%
Dayton            28.21% 49.05% 15.10%  5.26%  1.45%  0.62%  0.25%  0.06%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.06    97.61%100.00%
Saint Louis        5.23% 11.93% 26.49% 34.04% 20.36%  1.56%  0.32%  0.07%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.59    77.68%100.00%
Fordham            3.77%  9.94% 34.80% 28.68% 17.26%  3.94%  1.20%  0.33%  0.08%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.65    77.18% 99.99%
Duquesne           0.94%  3.86% 14.53% 25.54% 34.83% 12.71%  4.75%  1.88%  0.62%  0.22%  0.10%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        4.62    44.87% 99.66%
St. Bonaventure    0.00%  0.00%  0.07%  1.14%  9.40% 30.44% 22.10% 13.94%  9.35%  7.22%  3.76%  1.69%  0.82%  0.07%  0.00%        7.30     1.21% 86.44%
George Mason       0.00%  0.01%  0.32%  0.83%  4.14% 12.35% 24.34% 23.20% 16.70% 10.65%  5.59%  1.70%  0.16%  0.00%  0.00%        7.96     1.16% 81.89%
La Salle           0.00%  0.03%  0.18%  0.95%  8.31% 15.36% 14.26% 18.56% 18.50% 11.86%  6.39%  3.63%  1.86%  0.13%  0.00%        8.11     1.15% 76.14%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.15%  1.86% 14.88% 17.70% 16.53% 15.12% 13.54% 10.22%  7.80%  2.17%  0.03%  0.00%        8.61     0.16% 66.25%
Richmond           0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.10%  0.66%  2.11%  5.30%  9.85% 14.70% 22.48% 23.33% 14.53%  5.75%  1.15%  0.03%       10.12     0.11% 32.73%
George Washington  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.03%  0.45%  4.45%  6.80%  8.41% 13.05% 15.66% 15.79% 17.26% 15.87%  2.19%  0.06%       10.36     0.03% 33.18%
Davidson           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.26%  1.30%  2.49%  5.90%  8.33% 10.49% 17.16% 23.81% 22.60%  6.78%  0.89%       11.30     0.00% 18.27%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.15%  0.48%  1.26%  3.42%  6.96% 14.15% 20.45% 22.31% 18.56% 12.26%       12.50     0.00%  5.31%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.10%  0.80%  3.08%  7.66% 17.61% 37.43% 33.32%       13.87     0.00%  0.10%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.11%  0.43%  1.44% 10.85% 33.66% 53.44%       14.38     0.00%  0.05%
Reply With Quote
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (02-16-2023), mikeymo85 (02-17-2023), Radar (02-16-2023), rollo (02-16-2023), SC_Flyer (02-18-2023)
  #89  
Old 02-20-2023, 10:43 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
LIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond reputeLIBob has a reputation beyond repute
Probabilities Through games of 2/19:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               67.63% 26.84%  4.31%  1.09%  0.13%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.39    99.86%100.00%
Dayton            26.69% 56.36% 13.22%  3.05%  0.52%  0.14%  0.04%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.95    99.31%100.00%
Saint Louis        5.58% 13.18% 40.82% 36.72%  3.55%  0.15%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.20    96.29%100.00%
Fordham            0.10%  3.48% 35.63% 31.48% 21.49%  6.70%  0.90%  0.20%  0.03%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        3.96    70.69%100.00%
Duquesne           0.00%  0.13%  5.53% 25.87% 51.58%  9.82%  3.93%  1.85%  0.70%  0.31%  0.20%  0.06%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        4.92    31.53% 99.42%
George Mason       0.00%  0.02%  0.44%  1.28%  8.74% 23.48% 23.18% 18.98% 12.53%  7.42%  3.35%  0.58%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        7.36     1.73% 88.64%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.05%  0.26%  7.09%  9.75% 15.51% 19.40% 20.26% 14.98%  7.82%  4.00%  0.86%  0.04%  0.00%        8.37     0.31% 72.32%
George Washington  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.12%  2.17% 18.91% 17.66% 15.14% 16.23% 12.38%  9.51%  5.82%  1.59%  0.47%  0.00%        8.41     0.13% 70.23%
St. Bonaventure    0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.05%  2.11% 12.10% 15.20% 14.90% 16.39% 16.82% 11.85%  8.22%  1.80%  0.57%  0.00%        8.85     0.05% 60.74%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.95% 13.72% 12.84% 12.05% 12.05% 17.73% 14.70% 14.16%  1.74%  0.05%  0.00%        9.14     0.01% 51.61%
Richmond           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.10%  1.04%  2.98%  5.09%  7.54% 10.37% 16.86% 25.00% 19.30% 10.61%  1.10%  0.00%       10.41     0.11% 27.13%
Davidson           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.63%  2.25%  5.60%  9.69% 10.59% 10.60% 16.61% 22.55% 11.71%  9.50%  0.28%       10.77     0.00% 28.77%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.03%  0.28%  1.56%  7.05% 17.18% 46.16% 23.55%  4.19%       12.95     0.00%  0.32%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.04%  0.21%  0.58%  1.32%  3.80%  7.72% 16.00% 40.40% 29.94%       13.77     0.00%  0.83%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.03%  0.11%  0.41%  9.53% 24.32% 65.60%       14.55     0.00%  0.00%
Reply With Quote
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (02-21-2023), mikeymo85 (02-20-2023), rollo (02-20-2023)
  #90  
Old 02-20-2023, 11:01 AM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
Relatively quiet week in the A10, unless upset city abounds, which given the state of the A10 is certainly a possibility


Tuesday:


VCU @ St Joes
SLU @ Richmond ... Well both are on the road....


Wednesday:


UD @ UMass
Bona @ Davidson
Duquesne @ LaSalle
GW @ Rhody
Fordham @ Loyola (how does Fordham bounce back from that drubbing?)


Friday


Richmond @ VCU ... Game of the week, will Richmond win one for the Mooney


Saturday:


Rhody @ Fordham
Mason @ UD
LaSalle @ GW
Loyola @ St Louis


Sunday:
St Joes @ Bona
Davidson @ Duquesne
Reply With Quote
  #91  
Old 02-20-2023, 11:04 AM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
A 2-0 week locks up a double bye for UD I believe regardless of what anyone else does.


A 2-0 week combined with a Fordham upset locks up a top 3 seed I believe.


A 2-0 week combined with an 0-2 week from SLU may lock up the 2 seed, not sure about tie breakers however.
Reply With Quote
  #92  
Old 02-20-2023, 11:16 AM
OSU Flyer's Avatar
OSU Flyer OSU Flyer is offline
General
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 6,252
Thanks: 2,335
Thanked 3,904 Times in 2,143 Posts
OSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeOSU Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Would be real nice to be the 1 seed and have Fordham as the 4 seed
Reply With Quote
  #93  
Old 02-20-2023, 11:17 AM
Hyde Park Flyer Hyde Park Flyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,353
Thanks: 364
Thanked 1,430 Times in 755 Posts
Hyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeHyde Park Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Ideally, we’re in the opposite bracket from VCU and SLU. If SLU falls to 4, I would prefer to be the 2 and let VCU play SLU.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
  #94  
Old 02-20-2023, 01:11 PM
Figgie123's Avatar
Figgie123 Figgie123 is offline
I Am A Statistical God
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,503
Thanks: 4,687
Thanked 6,152 Times in 2,316 Posts
Figgie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Medford View Post
A 2-0 week combined with an 0-2 week from SLU may lock up the 2 seed, not sure about tie breakers however.
It doesn't look that way to me. We would have a 2 game lead on SLU in this case, but then if we went 0-2 while STL went 2-0, we would be tied again.

Remember, ties are broken from the top down, and remain that way. So, when you are tie breaking, you use individual tie-broken teams above you, and groups of teams not tie-broken below you.

In the situation I have it goes all the way down to StB and GW being tied at 8-10. STL is 2-0, while we are 0-2.

--Figgie
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Medford (02-20-2023)
  #95  
Old 02-20-2023, 01:25 PM
Figgie123's Avatar
Figgie123 Figgie123 is offline
I Am A Statistical God
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,503
Thanks: 4,687
Thanked 6,152 Times in 2,316 Posts
Figgie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Medford View Post
A 2-0 week locks up a double bye for UD I believe regardless of what anyone else does.

A 2-0 week combined with a Fordham upset locks up a top 3 seed I believe.
The first statement appears accurate.

The second one does not appear accurate. If VCU would lose a few games and Fordham wins 3 of the 4, we would be in 4th place. This one would have the La Salle game as the break point for VCU/Day at #3 because we'd have to lose that game to be tied with VCU for that 3rd place tie-break.

But, 28 games to go, and a few unexpected losses will mess all of this up still.

--Figgie
Reply With Quote
  #96  
Old 02-20-2023, 01:33 PM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
Yeah, I figured the 4th place finish in that scenario could playout far enough down that UD wouldn't own the tie breaker; I didn't have the desire to break down the scenarios much beyond Fordham... That is why I just throw something out there and count on Figgie to set the record straight




And I guess I didn't really count on VCU dropping several games down the stretch. Frankly dropping any of the games to UMASS, Mason or LaSalle would be a huge disappointment. I've been dissapointed once or twice this season; really, REALLY hoping that the play an increased pace of the offense the last 3 games is a sign that the team is putting it all together as they get healthy. Dropping one of next 3 would be a huge dent in those hopes.

Last edited by Medford; 02-20-2023 at 01:36 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #97  
Old 02-20-2023, 01:46 PM
Medford Medford is offline
General
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
Medford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond reputeMedford has a reputation beyond repute
On further look, lets say SLU wins out, and UD wins both this week as described above with Fordham dropping 1, but winning both next week. That would put UD at 12-6, SLU at 14-4 and Fordham at 12-6. In order to get a 3 way tie at 12-6, VCU would need to drop 3 of their last 4, including that game vs SLU.


In a 3 way tie, do they look at the head to head of the 3 teams first? VCU & UD would be 2-1 while Fordham would be 0-2. so Fordham is knocked out and then it is a 2 team tie breaker for UD and VCU, which would work its way down to the record vs whomever is in 5th or 6th or whatever the break point is b/w UD and VCU, but either way UD would be 3rd at worse.


The other possibility is that UD goes 2-0 this week, 0-2 next week, VCU does what is described above and Duquesne wins out while Fordham drops a game this week, which would put Duquense in a 3 way tie for 3rd (they would be fordham as well next week) at 12-6. In that scenario, UD would be 2-1 vs that group, while Duquesne would be 1-1 and VCU would be 1-2 and then UD would be the 2 seed.


so anyways, 2 wins this week and a lose by Fordham I think locks up a top 3 seed, but anything less than 3-0 over the next 3 is a disappointment.
Reply With Quote
  #98  
Old 02-20-2023, 08:20 PM
Figgie123's Avatar
Figgie123 Figgie123 is offline
I Am A Statistical God
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,503
Thanks: 4,687
Thanked 6,152 Times in 2,316 Posts
Figgie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond reputeFiggie123 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Medford View Post
so anyways, 2 wins this week and a lose by Fordham I think locks up a top 3 seed, but anything less than 3-0 over the next 3 is a disappointment.
I went back and looked at my results. (2^28) I must have switched H/A for a result set. Using UD's 2 victories this week, and either loss for Fordham, I show no results of UD out of 3rd place. So, can Fordham lose at Loyola or while hosting Rhode Island?
Reply With Quote
  #99  
Old 02-20-2023, 08:58 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
I just want to see the team win at UMass. Take nothing for granted this year.
Reply With Quote
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Jeff For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (02-21-2023), Flyers98 (02-21-2023), Glen Clark (02-21-2023), superfan99 (02-22-2023)
  #100  
Old 02-22-2023, 10:41 AM
MrFlyerFanatic's Avatar
MrFlyerFanatic MrFlyerFanatic is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
MrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond reputeMrFlyerFanatic has a reputation beyond repute
I didn't see SLU losing to Richmond, but there you have it.
Fordham holds the head-to-head tie breaker with SLU.
Fordham giving 2pts at Loyola tonight.
Duquesne lurking in 5th giving 2pts at LaSalle. SLU hold head-to-head tie breaker.
Both Fordham and Duquesne have, what appear to be, favorable schedules down the stretch.
SLU fans may want to arrange their travel plans to arrive in Brooklyn by 2pm on Wednesday.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.1

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:29 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Advertisement System V2.6 By   Branden

     
 
Copyright 1996-2012 UDPride.com. All Rights Reserved.