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01-02-2023, 12:09 PM
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2023 Atlantic 10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 67.39% 19.31% 7.24% 3.22% 1.47% 0.71% 0.35% 0.16% 0.08% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57 97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis 17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19% 8.15% 5.38% 3.47% 2.15% 1.36% 0.78% 0.42% 0.20% 0.09% 0.09% 0.03% 3.25 77.97% 98.48%
George Mason 4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99% 8.11% 5.88% 4.00% 2.70% 1.71% 0.94% 0.51% 0.51% 0.21% 4.94 51.22% 93.89%
Richmond 3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25% 8.89% 7.05% 5.22% 3.77% 2.56% 1.60% 0.94% 0.94% 0.48% 5.42 44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne 1.61% 8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21% 8.08% 6.17% 4.52% 3.19% 2.08% 1.18% 1.18% 0.60% 5.90 37.78% 88.22%
VCU 3.17% 8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28% 8.57% 6.71% 5.18% 3.83% 2.59% 1.65% 1.65% 0.88% 6.14 35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure 0.66% 2.67% 5.11% 7.06% 8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65% 9.51% 7.93% 6.45% 4.77% 4.77% 2.96% 8.20 15.49% 67.05%
Davidson 0.33% 2.17% 4.26% 6.53% 8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25% 9.84% 8.04% 6.03% 4.37% 4.37% 2.76% 8.24 13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts 0.58% 2.27% 4.01% 6.10% 7.56% 9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51% 9.93% 8.85% 7.51% 5.89% 5.89% 4.26% 8.66 12.96% 61.24%
George Washington 0.21% 0.89% 2.04% 3.20% 4.62% 6.05% 7.61% 9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58% 9.55% 9.55% 7.83% 9.97 6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago 0.08% 0.34% 0.89% 1.62% 2.57% 3.82% 5.48% 7.00% 8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69% 10.95 2.93% 30.76%
Fordham 0.03% 0.17% 0.46% 0.99% 1.65% 2.58% 3.93% 5.54% 7.45% 9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19% 11.55 1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island 0.02% 0.14% 0.41% 0.86% 1.54% 2.71% 4.01% 5.59% 7.39% 9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60% 11.57 1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's 0.01% 0.10% 0.34% 0.77% 1.43% 2.27% 3.47% 4.85% 6.62% 8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34% 11.76 1.21% 19.86%
La Salle 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.33% 0.56% 1.06% 1.83% 2.99% 4.50% 6.61% 9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15% 12.79 0.19% 6.96%
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01-02-2023, 12:35 PM
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This is absurd.
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01-02-2023, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 67.39% 19.31% 7.24% 3.22% 1.47% 0.71% 0.35% 0.16% 0.08% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57 97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis 17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19% 8.15% 5.38% 3.47% 2.15% 1.36% 0.78% 0.42% 0.20% 0.09% 0.09% 0.03% 3.25 77.97% 98.48%
George Mason 4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99% 8.11% 5.88% 4.00% 2.70% 1.71% 0.94% 0.51% 0.51% 0.21% 4.94 51.22% 93.89%
Richmond 3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25% 8.89% 7.05% 5.22% 3.77% 2.56% 1.60% 0.94% 0.94% 0.48% 5.42 44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne 1.61% 8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21% 8.08% 6.17% 4.52% 3.19% 2.08% 1.18% 1.18% 0.60% 5.90 37.78% 88.22%
VCU 3.17% 8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28% 8.57% 6.71% 5.18% 3.83% 2.59% 1.65% 1.65% 0.88% 6.14 35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure 0.66% 2.67% 5.11% 7.06% 8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65% 9.51% 7.93% 6.45% 4.77% 4.77% 2.96% 8.20 15.49% 67.05%
Davidson 0.33% 2.17% 4.26% 6.53% 8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25% 9.84% 8.04% 6.03% 4.37% 4.37% 2.76% 8.24 13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts 0.58% 2.27% 4.01% 6.10% 7.56% 9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51% 9.93% 8.85% 7.51% 5.89% 5.89% 4.26% 8.66 12.96% 61.24%
George Washington 0.21% 0.89% 2.04% 3.20% 4.62% 6.05% 7.61% 9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58% 9.55% 9.55% 7.83% 9.97 6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago 0.08% 0.34% 0.89% 1.62% 2.57% 3.82% 5.48% 7.00% 8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69% 10.95 2.93% 30.76%
Fordham 0.03% 0.17% 0.46% 0.99% 1.65% 2.58% 3.93% 5.54% 7.45% 9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19% 11.55 1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island 0.02% 0.14% 0.41% 0.86% 1.54% 2.71% 4.01% 5.59% 7.39% 9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60% 11.57 1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's 0.01% 0.10% 0.34% 0.77% 1.43% 2.27% 3.47% 4.85% 6.62% 8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34% 11.76 1.21% 19.86%
La Salle 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.33% 0.56% 1.06% 1.83% 2.99% 4.50% 6.61% 9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15% 12.79 0.19% 6.96%
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This is like predicting the odds on who will win the World Series in 2030?
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01-02-2023, 02:40 PM
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Love it! It will be fun watching this progress throughout the season.
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01-02-2023, 02:43 PM
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Major
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Originally Posted by Don
This is like predicting the odds on who will win the World Series in 2030?
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KC Royals.
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01-02-2023, 02:59 PM
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Major
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 67.39% 19.31% 7.24% 3.22% 1.47% 0.71% 0.35% 0.16% 0.08% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57 97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis 17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19% 8.15% 5.38% 3.47% 2.15% 1.36% 0.78% 0.42% 0.20% 0.09% 0.09% 0.03% 3.25 77.97% 98.48%
George Mason 4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99% 8.11% 5.88% 4.00% 2.70% 1.71% 0.94% 0.51% 0.51% 0.21% 4.94 51.22% 93.89%
Richmond 3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25% 8.89% 7.05% 5.22% 3.77% 2.56% 1.60% 0.94% 0.94% 0.48% 5.42 44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne 1.61% 8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21% 8.08% 6.17% 4.52% 3.19% 2.08% 1.18% 1.18% 0.60% 5.90 37.78% 88.22%
VCU 3.17% 8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28% 8.57% 6.71% 5.18% 3.83% 2.59% 1.65% 1.65% 0.88% 6.14 35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure 0.66% 2.67% 5.11% 7.06% 8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65% 9.51% 7.93% 6.45% 4.77% 4.77% 2.96% 8.20 15.49% 67.05%
Davidson 0.33% 2.17% 4.26% 6.53% 8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25% 9.84% 8.04% 6.03% 4.37% 4.37% 2.76% 8.24 13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts 0.58% 2.27% 4.01% 6.10% 7.56% 9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51% 9.93% 8.85% 7.51% 5.89% 5.89% 4.26% 8.66 12.96% 61.24%
George Washington 0.21% 0.89% 2.04% 3.20% 4.62% 6.05% 7.61% 9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58% 9.55% 9.55% 7.83% 9.97 6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago 0.08% 0.34% 0.89% 1.62% 2.57% 3.82% 5.48% 7.00% 8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69% 10.95 2.93% 30.76%
Fordham 0.03% 0.17% 0.46% 0.99% 1.65% 2.58% 3.93% 5.54% 7.45% 9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19% 11.55 1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island 0.02% 0.14% 0.41% 0.86% 1.54% 2.71% 4.01% 5.59% 7.39% 9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60% 11.57 1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's 0.01% 0.10% 0.34% 0.77% 1.43% 2.27% 3.47% 4.85% 6.62% 8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34% 11.76 1.21% 19.86%
La Salle 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.33% 0.56% 1.06% 1.83% 2.99% 4.50% 6.61% 9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15% 12.79 0.19% 6.96%
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Love these, LIBob.
Could you tell us how these are determined?
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01-02-2023, 03:24 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Originally Posted by podcast411
KC Royals.
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My Detriot Tigers
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01-02-2023, 07:15 PM
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Captain
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Originally Posted by flyer016
Love these, LIBob.
Could you tell us how these are determined?
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Sure. I run 100,000 simulations of the A10 schedule using actual results for games played and KenPom win probabilities for games yet to be played.
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01-02-2023, 07:43 PM
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General of the Air Force
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It’s all about KenPom and the metrics and right now the Flyers are well ahead of any other team in the conference.
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01-02-2023, 08:06 PM
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Brigadier General
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Can you predict the price of Twitter stock In March too?
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01-02-2023, 09:24 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
Can you predict the price of Twitter stock In March too?
Posted via Mobile Device
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Sure….$0.00. Since it is a private company it has no stock price.
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01-03-2023, 07:33 AM
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Major
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Nice work....but at this point..
Interesting only. Wi be fun to watch things unfold!
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01-03-2023, 10:19 AM
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General
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Remarkable that most posts are critical. I get it, it's a statistical model. Let's see what happens, or as Howard Cosell would say: "That's why they play the games".
Now we can get back to the 2023 NFL Mock draft version 63.
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01-03-2023, 11:49 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Jeff
Remarkable that most posts are critical. I get it, it's a statistical model. Let's see what happens, or as Howard Cosell would say: "That's why they play the games".
Now we can get back to the 2023 NFL Mock draft version 63.
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There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
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01-03-2023, 12:12 PM
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Colonel
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One of if not my favorite thread of the year. One thing to watch this year is that ninth seed. remember that now teams 10 through 15 will have to play on the first day.
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01-03-2023, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Then don't look at it. Nobody is saying this is going to be completely predictive today. I personally enjoy looking at how it shifts throughout the season as more games are played.
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01-03-2023, 02:21 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Actually, this takes into account all games to date which is around half of the season. KenPom numbers are now starting to become predictive.
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01-03-2023, 09:18 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
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01-03-2023, 09:26 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Look at who they played OOC. The Sacred Bleeding Heart Of Jesus Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California, is not exactly a Quad I win.
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01-04-2023, 10:03 AM
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General
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I've got us at 13 and 3!
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01-04-2023, 10:18 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
Posted via Mobile Device
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It’s about strength of the team, not just wins and losses. Fordham has played the worst schedule in the country in OOC, and they’ve struggled in some of those games. As you can see form the result of their game against Davidson, which they lost at home by 15 points, the predictive nature of KenPom was pretty accurate.
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01-04-2023, 12:06 PM
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It's not even entirely SOS. More accurately, it's how efficiently you play.
And Fordham has the 260th offense in the nation and 150th defense, for an overall ranking of 190th in on-court performance. When the metrics say you're that bad, same metric won't give you much credit for beating teams that are worse (though pragmatically speaking, the upshot is that even a bad team can rack up wins against worse team, so it does circle back to SOS in that way). And that's how you win 12 OOC games, and project to win 6 or 7 conference games.
Dayton has the 18th best defense in the country, which is elite, and an offense that is trending up (80th in our last 8 games, with turnovers being our biggest remaining hurdle), which is why metrics still like us for 13 or 14 conference wins. [That is without even factoring the human element of getting Mali and Elvis back, which should address the exact areas where our offense falters.]
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01-04-2023, 12:23 PM
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Atlantic 10 has adjusted tip times for the tournament. A significant item of note, there is a one day break between the quarters, and semi‘s. The incentive to grab one of those top four spots is now larger because you only have to play three games in four days now. https://atlantic10.com/sports/2022/8/10/MBB23.aspx
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01-04-2023, 03:45 PM
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travel
Originally Posted by Flyerferd
Atlantic 10 has adjusted tip times for the tournament. A significant item of note, there is a one day break between the quarters, and semi‘s. The incentive to grab one of those top four spots is now larger because you only have to play three games in four days now. https://atlantic10.com/sports/2022/8/10/MBB23.aspx
Posted via Mobile Device
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I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.
1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.
On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
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01-04-2023, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia
It's not even entirely SOS. More accurately, it's how efficiently you play.
And Fordham has the 260th offense in the nation and 150th defense, for an overall ranking of 190th in on-court performance. When the metrics say you're that bad, same metric won't give you much credit for beating teams that are worse (though pragmatically speaking, the upshot is that even a bad team can rack up wins against worse team, so it does circle back to SOS in that way). And that's how you win 12 OOC games, and project to win 6 or 7 conference games.
Dayton has the 18th best defense in the country, which is elite, and an offense that is trending up (80th in our last 8 games, with turnovers being our biggest remaining hurdle), which is why metrics still like us for 13 or 14 conference wins. [That is without even factoring the human element of getting Mali and Elvis back, which should address the exact areas where our offense falters.]
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Thanks for posting this Rick. Solid information that I’m not sure the casual fan (or even casual poster on UD Pride) fully understands.
It’s important for UD to continue to reduce TO’s and improve offense efficiency. Not only does it increase winning probability but it will be something the committee looks at.
I would argue the lack of fully understanding the NET is the primary reason so many on this board we’re surprised to find out UD was so close to getting an at large bid. And, this year, even without the signature wins, could help UD if they go, say 16-2, in conference.
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01-04-2023, 04:56 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.
1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.
On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
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I would rather spend a weekend in jail than fly into LGA
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01-04-2023, 06:03 PM
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I live in north Jersey, 4 miles from the New Jersey - New York (Orange County) border. Driving to Brooklyn, while doable, just doesn't make sense to me. I am referring to parking, tolls, etc. I think it is now a $16 toll to cross the GW bridge! That leaves public transportation. With time constraints, connections that would have to be made, that is out of the question. I am not about to get a hotel room in Brooklyn for the tournament. All this has become too expensive! I have attended the A-10 Tournament in Dayton and Atlantic City (a 3 and 1/2 hour drive). I will not go to Brooklyn. Madison Square Graden is much easier to get to, but that is not in the discussion.
We play Fordham next week. I have made the trip to Rose Hill in the past, but I do NOT plan on traveling to the "da Bronx" next week. At 73, almost 74, I'll just sit at home and watch the game on the Tube! If someone wants to drive me to Fordham next week maybe, I'll reconsider.
Last edited by Bill McPeek; 01-04-2023 at 06:10 PM..
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01-04-2023, 09:24 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.
1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.
On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
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It's not just the cost, it's the CRIME that has exploded in NYC. I'll stop there or this will be considered an Off Topic item.
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01-04-2023, 09:26 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
I would rather spend a weekend in jail than fly into LGA
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Spot on....beautiful airport, followed by a short, quiet, lazy drive into the city
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01-04-2023, 09:55 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Jeff
It's not just the cost, it's the CRIME that has exploded in NYC. I'll stop there or this will be considered an Off Topic item.
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I lived there when the crime was significantly worse in the early 90’s. I never had an issue. Use common sense, and the city is safe. I only had one friend who was mostly responsible and was still a victim of an attack. I say mostly because he knew better than to stand alone on a platform in Jamaica on a Sunday morning. He knew that safety is in numbers. Fwiw, he was only a “victim” because he was attacked. He is a martial arts expert and caused significant injury to the attacker. Karma.
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01-05-2023, 10:57 AM
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Captain
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Probabilities Through games of 1/4:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 79.48% 12.58% 4.29% 1.99% 0.82% 0.45% 0.22% 0.10% 0.05% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.35 98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis 7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19% 8.76% 6.77% 4.99% 3.42% 2.16% 1.24% 0.62% 0.31% 0.31% 0.10% 4.37 60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne 2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41% 8.37% 6.46% 4.58% 2.97% 1.82% 0.99% 0.51% 0.51% 0.24% 5.00 50.88% 93.43%
Richmond 3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63% 9.06% 7.39% 5.71% 3.79% 2.35% 1.31% 0.71% 0.71% 0.30% 5.29 46.67% 91.45%
George Mason 2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20% 8.33% 6.23% 4.37% 2.81% 1.68% 0.79% 0.79% 0.34% 5.68 39.82% 89.92%
Davidson 0.74% 5.30% 7.72% 9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33% 8.00% 5.48% 3.20% 1.80% 1.80% 0.83% 7.01 23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts 1.48% 6.57% 8.20% 9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44% 9.60% 7.88% 5.99% 4.31% 2.71% 2.71% 1.60% 7.14 25.53% 76.91%
VCU 1.31% 5.18% 7.38% 9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72% 9.74% 8.27% 6.34% 4.33% 2.87% 2.87% 1.49% 7.28 23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure 1.18% 5.08% 7.26% 8.79% 9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40% 8.47% 6.47% 4.39% 2.73% 2.73% 1.42% 7.33 22.30% 76.07%
George Washington 0.12% 0.75% 1.44% 2.25% 3.35% 4.58% 6.22% 8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79% 8.25% 10.42 4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island 0.05% 0.32% 0.70% 1.37% 2.29% 3.63% 5.24% 7.13% 9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23% 10.99 2.43% 30.24%
Fordham 0.02% 0.13% 0.37% 0.66% 1.11% 1.91% 3.01% 4.20% 6.45% 9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59% 11.88 1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.08% 0.19% 0.47% 0.96% 1.49% 2.43% 3.79% 5.71% 8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87% 12.08 0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.45% 0.80% 1.43% 2.23% 3.58% 5.43% 8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98% 12.14 0.74% 14.22%
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.10% 0.20% 0.38% 0.72% 1.38% 2.53% 4.32% 6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76% 12.93 0.16% 5.36%
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01-05-2023, 12:37 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by Jeff
Look at who they played OOC. The Sacred Bleeding Heart Of Jesus Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California, is not exactly a Quad I win.
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Yes, but after the win the Fordahm bus driver ran 20 red lights in their honor.
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01-05-2023, 02:35 PM
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plan ahead
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 79.48% 12.58% 4.29% 1.99% 0.82% 0.45% 0.22% 0.10% 0.05% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.35 98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis 7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19% 8.76% 6.77% 4.99% 3.42% 2.16% 1.24% 0.62% 0.31% 0.31% 0.10% 4.37 60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne 2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41% 8.37% 6.46% 4.58% 2.97% 1.82% 0.99% 0.51% 0.51% 0.24% 5.00 50.88% 93.43%
Richmond 3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63% 9.06% 7.39% 5.71% 3.79% 2.35% 1.31% 0.71% 0.71% 0.30% 5.29 46.67% 91.45%
George Mason 2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20% 8.33% 6.23% 4.37% 2.81% 1.68% 0.79% 0.79% 0.34% 5.68 39.82% 89.92%
Davidson 0.74% 5.30% 7.72% 9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33% 8.00% 5.48% 3.20% 1.80% 1.80% 0.83% 7.01 23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts 1.48% 6.57% 8.20% 9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44% 9.60% 7.88% 5.99% 4.31% 2.71% 2.71% 1.60% 7.14 25.53% 76.91%
VCU 1.31% 5.18% 7.38% 9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72% 9.74% 8.27% 6.34% 4.33% 2.87% 2.87% 1.49% 7.28 23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure 1.18% 5.08% 7.26% 8.79% 9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40% 8.47% 6.47% 4.39% 2.73% 2.73% 1.42% 7.33 22.30% 76.07%
George Washington 0.12% 0.75% 1.44% 2.25% 3.35% 4.58% 6.22% 8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79% 8.25% 10.42 4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island 0.05% 0.32% 0.70% 1.37% 2.29% 3.63% 5.24% 7.13% 9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23% 10.99 2.43% 30.24%
Fordham 0.02% 0.13% 0.37% 0.66% 1.11% 1.91% 3.01% 4.20% 6.45% 9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59% 11.88 1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.08% 0.19% 0.47% 0.96% 1.49% 2.43% 3.79% 5.71% 8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87% 12.08 0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.45% 0.80% 1.43% 2.23% 3.58% 5.43% 8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98% 12.14 0.74% 14.22%
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.10% 0.20% 0.38% 0.72% 1.38% 2.53% 4.32% 6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76% 12.93 0.16% 5.36%
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Well, UD looks like a lock for 1-4. I better start planning.
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01-05-2023, 02:47 PM
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General
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Join Date: Oct 2001
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"Well I guess there is only one thing to do. Win the whole Blankin' thing." - Jake Taylor
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01-05-2023, 03:19 PM
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Major
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It feels like the A10 is starting to suffer from the great sorting of big college sports. Those probabilities reflect UD being the class of the conference (in a not particular good OOC season).
UD should always be a favorite for the regular season and tournament championships, but it's becoming clear that UD needs to start winning conference championships with regularity. There's no excuses. Most of these teams don't belong in the same gym, and it's time to start asserting some A10 dominance. Anything less than 15 wins and a 1-seed is a disappointment for me.
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01-05-2023, 03:23 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 79.48% 12.58% 4.29% 1.99% 0.82% 0.45% 0.22% 0.10% 0.05% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.35 98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis 7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19% 8.76% 6.77% 4.99% 3.42% 2.16% 1.24% 0.62% 0.31% 0.31% 0.10% 4.37 60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne 2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41% 8.37% 6.46% 4.58% 2.97% 1.82% 0.99% 0.51% 0.51% 0.24% 5.00 50.88% 93.43%
Richmond 3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63% 9.06% 7.39% 5.71% 3.79% 2.35% 1.31% 0.71% 0.71% 0.30% 5.29 46.67% 91.45%
George Mason 2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20% 8.33% 6.23% 4.37% 2.81% 1.68% 0.79% 0.79% 0.34% 5.68 39.82% 89.92%
Davidson 0.74% 5.30% 7.72% 9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33% 8.00% 5.48% 3.20% 1.80% 1.80% 0.83% 7.01 23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts 1.48% 6.57% 8.20% 9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44% 9.60% 7.88% 5.99% 4.31% 2.71% 2.71% 1.60% 7.14 25.53% 76.91%
VCU 1.31% 5.18% 7.38% 9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72% 9.74% 8.27% 6.34% 4.33% 2.87% 2.87% 1.49% 7.28 23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure 1.18% 5.08% 7.26% 8.79% 9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40% 8.47% 6.47% 4.39% 2.73% 2.73% 1.42% 7.33 22.30% 76.07%
George Washington 0.12% 0.75% 1.44% 2.25% 3.35% 4.58% 6.22% 8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79% 8.25% 10.42 4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island 0.05% 0.32% 0.70% 1.37% 2.29% 3.63% 5.24% 7.13% 9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23% 10.99 2.43% 30.24%
Fordham 0.02% 0.13% 0.37% 0.66% 1.11% 1.91% 3.01% 4.20% 6.45% 9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59% 11.88 1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.08% 0.19% 0.47% 0.96% 1.49% 2.43% 3.79% 5.71% 8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87% 12.08 0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago 0.01% 0.09% 0.19% 0.45% 0.80% 1.43% 2.23% 3.58% 5.43% 8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98% 12.14 0.74% 14.22%
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.10% 0.20% 0.38% 0.72% 1.38% 2.53% 4.32% 6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76% 12.93 0.16% 5.36%
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I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity between the forecasted top seed and the rest of the conference. Bob, since you’ve been doing this, has there ever been such a wide margin?
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01-09-2023, 01:23 AM
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Captain
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Originally Posted by TA111
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity between the forecasted top seed and the rest of the conference. Bob, since you’ve been doing this, has there ever been such a wide margin?
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Looking back to 2020, on the 1/5 update UD had a 70% chance to be seed first, followed by VCU at 17%. By the 1/11 update, UD rose to 80% followed by Duquesne at 7%.
So a similar disparity. Hopefully, the regular season conference results can end up the same.
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01-09-2023, 11:22 AM
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Captain
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Probabilities Through games of 1/7:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 75.04% 15.02% 5.42% 2.38% 1.07% 0.56% 0.28% 0.13% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.44 97.86% 99.96%
Saint Louis 11.14% 25.91% 19.21% 14.08% 9.98% 7.26% 4.84% 3.20% 2.04% 1.26% 0.63% 0.30% 0.11% 0.11% 0.03% 3.75 70.34% 97.65%
Richmond 4.97% 17.84% 16.96% 14.52% 12.22% 9.89% 7.77% 5.86% 4.12% 2.66% 1.61% 0.93% 0.44% 0.44% 0.17% 4.76 54.28% 94.13%
George Mason 2.92% 11.74% 14.49% 14.97% 14.14% 12.08% 9.75% 7.42% 5.19% 3.51% 2.02% 1.03% 0.52% 0.52% 0.16% 5.31 44.13% 92.70%
Duquesne 1.61% 11.47% 15.46% 15.88% 14.27% 11.92% 9.42% 7.09% 5.21% 3.47% 2.13% 1.18% 0.62% 0.62% 0.23% 5.36 44.41% 92.32%
VCU 2.55% 8.15% 10.44% 11.90% 12.78% 12.46% 11.16% 9.43% 7.36% 5.49% 3.75% 2.38% 1.36% 1.36% 0.61% 6.19 33.04% 86.22%
Davidson 0.27% 2.45% 4.54% 6.49% 8.82% 10.98% 12.67% 13.21% 12.36% 10.30% 7.61% 5.09% 2.98% 2.98% 1.65% 7.94 13.76% 71.79%
Massachusetts 0.75% 3.39% 5.34% 6.87% 8.65% 10.22% 11.01% 11.40% 11.18% 9.93% 8.05% 5.83% 3.98% 3.98% 2.34% 8.01 16.34% 68.81%
St. Bonaventure 0.42% 2.04% 4.16% 6.23% 7.84% 9.45% 11.15% 11.86% 11.84% 10.82% 8.98% 6.77% 4.67% 4.67% 2.70% 8.42 12.85% 64.99%
George Washington 0.27% 1.50% 2.70% 4.04% 5.58% 7.22% 9.15% 10.68% 12.12% 12.41% 11.36% 9.25% 6.96% 6.96% 4.50% 9.29 8.52% 53.26%
Fordham 0.03% 0.27% 0.64% 1.22% 2.01% 3.07% 4.82% 6.60% 8.91% 11.39% 13.62% 14.39% 13.76% 13.76% 11.74% 11.17 2.17% 27.58%
Rhode Island 0.02% 0.12% 0.38% 0.85% 1.46% 2.58% 3.88% 5.80% 7.86% 10.08% 12.38% 13.73% 14.47% 14.47% 14.40% 11.52 1.37% 22.95%
Loyola Chicago 0.01% 0.04% 0.11% 0.20% 0.42% 0.83% 1.42% 2.61% 4.31% 6.91% 10.39% 14.11% 16.91% 16.91% 19.51% 12.46 0.36% 9.94%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.03% 0.10% 0.21% 0.45% 0.84% 1.40% 2.49% 3.72% 5.83% 8.59% 12.48% 16.57% 16.57% 20.82% 12.59 0.34% 9.23%
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.17% 0.31% 0.66% 1.30% 2.23% 3.73% 5.95% 8.87% 12.53% 16.65% 16.65% 21.12% 12.64 0.24% 8.47%
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01-09-2023, 11:38 AM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
Posted via Mobile Device
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I would argue that there is no value to it until the end of the season, other than for discussion and comparison. It is a predictor of something(s) that is (are) going actually happen in real life, the actual result is what matters.
Even the NET is somewhat useless until all the games have been played as nothing is static, you could beat the #1 team in the country on their home court in November and if they are #100 in March you have yourself a road win over #100.
Full disclosure, I tend to expect the worst, figuring I will be pleasantly surprised.
Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 11:44 AM..
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01-09-2023, 12:06 PM
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I took the free money from FanDual and DraftKings and placed it on My Team to win the A10 regular season. Who's with me?
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01-09-2023, 12:42 PM
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General
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I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.
At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.
If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
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01-09-2023, 12:49 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by rollo
I took the free money from FanDual and DraftKings and placed it on My Team to win the A10 regular season. Who's with me?
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What kind of odds did you get?
Posted via Mobile Device
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01-09-2023, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer
What kind of odds did you get?
Posted via Mobile Device
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-230 on FanDual and -170 on DraftKings
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01-09-2023, 01:53 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by Medford
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.
At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.
If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
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I don't have to figure out who to "watch out for" as I won't be playing any basketball for the Flyers this season, (still working on getting an exemption, growing 8 inches, and developing a lot more athletic ability for next year).
Any coach who needs to be told "who to watch out for" should be fired on the spot as the answer to that question from a coach/player perspective is always "everyone." These rankings/predictions have entertainment value, (including as betting tools, congrats Ohio!), and are good for starting hypothetical discussions, but that is really the only value they have. The only thing that really matters is what the metrics say at the end, which as you correctly point out is based on actual data and not simulations or projections.
Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 02:13 PM..
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01-09-2023, 02:29 PM
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Well I sure as **** hope that neither CAG nor anyone from his staff is reading UDPRIDE trying to gleam a little inside tip on the opposition or whom to recruit.
If all you want to do is sit back and see what the standings say at the end of the year, then this thread isn't for you. Part of the fun (for me anyways) is seeing what the possibilities ahead look like and things like this or Torvik remove my personal bias from the equation and give me a reasonable picture of what the future may hold if everything stays 'steady'. I don't think any reasonable person thinks this or anything similar is absolute.
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01-09-2023, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98
I don't have to figure out who to "watch out for" as I won't be playing any basketball for the Flyers this season, (still working on getting an exemption, growing 8 inches, and developing a lot more athletic ability for next year).
Any coach who needs to be told "who to watch out for" should be fired on the spot as the answer to that question from a coach/player perspective is always "everyone." These rankings/predictions have entertainment value, (including as betting tools, congrats Ohio!), and are good for starting hypothetical discussions, but that is really the only value they have. The only thing that really matters is what the metrics say at the end, which as you correctly point out is based on actual data and not simulations or projections.
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Yep. It's like the ESPN game predictor that is always accurate at the end of the game and is captain obvious the rest of the time.
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01-09-2023, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.
At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.
If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
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I see it as just the opposite. Early on it's just conjecture on limited data points for teams that have likely not played many of the same teams. Once the conference games start, the value of the data used in projections is much more accurate and predictions more rational and based on more relevant data points.
If we used this same model to predict who would be most likely to win the A10 tournament for the past 20 years, how accurate would it have rated UD's chances vs. actuals?
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01-09-2023, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
I see it as just the opposite. Early on it's just conjecture on limited data points for teams that have likely not played many of the same teams. Once the conference games start, the value of the data used in projections is much more accurate and predictions more rational and based on more relevant data points.
If we used this same model to predict who would be most likely to win the A10 tournament for the past 20 years, how accurate would it have rated UD's chances vs. actuals?
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Medford didn't say "more accurate", he said "more valuable". That was his whole point. Of course it becomes more and more accurate each game and eventually is 100% accurate and matches the standings at the end of the year.
More "valuable" now because it lets the casual observer know that despite Fordham having the best non-conference record, they are still way down in the projected finish ranking. And despite Dayton's worse than expected record to start the season, the metrics still show that we have the best team in the A10.
It is not 100% accurate, but it is much more accurate than simply looking at a team's record or pre-season coach's poll to determine the conference favorites at this point.
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01-09-2023, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by superfan99
Medford didn't say "more accurate", he said "more valuable". That was his whole point. Of course it becomes more and more accurate each game and eventually is 100% accurate and matches the standings at the end of the year.
More "valuable" now because it lets the casual observer know that despite Fordham having the best non-conference record, they are still way down in the projected finish ranking. And despite Dayton's worse than expected record to start the season, the metrics still show that we have the best team in the A10.
It is not 100% accurate, but it is much more accurate than simply looking at a team's record or pre-season coach's poll to determine the conference favorites at this point.
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Fair enough but NET tells us the same thing since UD was highest entering the conference season. Many other prediction methods do the same thing using different metrics and weighting. This is just another one of those and not better or worse necessarily.
There are so many of these out there, it just comes down to either which are you going to trust or how many have to tell you the same thing before I will trust it.
I have a hard time understanding how a prediction tool worth considering could be rating UD as 70% likely 3 games in with this team having been so up and down.
It's like the pre-season top 25 in NCAAF that are so far from accurate for about 75% of the teams by year's end that it really has little predictive value until at least half way thru the season.
I'm also wondering if this model takes the imbalanced schedules into consideration when determining this? Since we play the other top teams twice and others play the weaker twice, is that a consideration when creating their pcts?
I'm a data guy in my job so I guess I just define value differently and have a hard time changing that when wearing my fan hat.
Last edited by Marysville Flyer; 01-09-2023 at 03:27 PM..
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01-09-2023, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
Well I sure as **** hope that neither CAG nor anyone from his staff is reading UDPRIDE trying to gleam a little inside tip on the opposition or whom to recruit.
If all you want to do is sit back and see what the standings say at the end of the year, then this thread isn't for you. Part of the fun (for me anyways) is seeing what the possibilities ahead look like and things like this or Torvik remove my personal bias from the equation and give me a reasonable picture of what the future may hold if everything stays 'steady'. I don't think any reasonable person thinks this or anything similar is absolute.
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It isn't the reasonable people who concern me.
The proliferation of these metrics is (at least in part) due to the fact that people love to argue about them and discuss them and like most things surrounding sports these days...gambling.
Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 03:55 PM..
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01-09-2023, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
Fair enough but NET tells us the same thing since UD was highest entering the conference season. Many other prediction methods do the same thing using different metrics and weighting. This is just another one of those and not better or worse necessarily.
There are so many of these out there, it just comes down to either which are you going to trust or how many have to tell you the same thing before I will trust it.
I have a hard time understanding how a prediction tool worth considering could be rating UD as 70% likely 3 games in with this team having been so up and down.
It's like the pre-season top 25 in NCAAF that are so far from accurate for about 75% of the teams by year's end that it really has little predictive value until at least half way thru the season.
I'm also wondering if this model takes the imbalanced schedules into consideration when determining this? Since we play the other top teams twice and others play the weaker twice, is that a consideration when creating their pcts?
I'm a data guy in my job so I guess I just define value differently and have a hard time changing that when wearing my fan hat.
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All that is true, my guess is that if you looked at Ken Pom, Torvik, KPI, or anything else similar that would yield similar results at the macro level. Focus in on a handful of teams and you would see differences, but overall my assumption is they are similar (though I've never really looked much at the differences overall, other than where UD sits). I'm pretty sure all would tell you that overall, teams are fairly well connected at this point based upon the amount of games played overall. I believe KenPom drops its preseason rankings slowly and by around game 12, any preseason numbers baked into his ratings are gone. Torvik also does the same thing with his preseason rankings, but factors them out a bit quicker (I want to say around game 8 they are all gone, I've read Torvik commment on this at some point 2-3 years ago, can't recall the exact numbers other than Torvik considers all teams connected quicker). Jeff Sagrain does his same thing.
Yes, I'd venture a guess that most of these analytical sites have gained popularity due to gambling. Unless you were a coach or reporter, why would you pay for KenPom unless you planned to gain from it (short of the handful of people that just love numbers). Since I don't gamble on college basketball, I've felt the desire to pay for KenPom's stuff, and Torvik offers his for free which satisfies my nerdy number side just fine
At the end of the day, they are just prediction tools that take the emotion out of things by just looking at numbers. They can't factor in how an injury will impact a team for a stretch or how team chemistry can derail an otherwise talented team mid season.
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01-12-2023, 10:23 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 80.27% 12.93% 4.14% 1.58% 0.65% 0.28% 0.09% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.31 98.92%100.00%
Saint Louis 7.92% 23.97% 21.50% 16.66% 11.89% 7.95% 4.58% 2.66% 1.49% 0.79% 0.37% 0.16% 0.06% 0.06% 0.02% 3.76 70.05% 98.61%
Richmond 5.69% 25.90% 20.91% 15.71% 12.02% 8.32% 5.14% 2.95% 1.67% 0.87% 0.51% 0.21% 0.08% 0.08% 0.03% 3.87 68.20% 98.30%
Duquesne 1.66% 15.05% 19.64% 19.68% 15.62% 11.01% 7.23% 4.40% 2.64% 1.61% 0.87% 0.37% 0.16% 0.16% 0.05% 4.57 56.04% 96.94%
VCU 3.01% 11.68% 13.95% 15.74% 16.55% 14.28% 9.75% 6.34% 4.00% 2.35% 1.27% 0.68% 0.28% 0.28% 0.10% 5.08 44.39% 95.31%
George Mason 1.11% 7.06% 11.79% 15.13% 16.92% 16.50% 11.98% 8.07% 5.11% 3.09% 1.78% 0.87% 0.42% 0.42% 0.15% 5.61 35.09% 93.65%
St. Bonaventure 0.09% 0.79% 2.05% 3.90% 6.02% 8.87% 12.01% 12.96% 12.98% 11.81% 10.04% 8.00% 5.65% 5.65% 3.50% 9.02 6.83% 59.67%
Davidson 0.02% 0.45% 1.31% 2.84% 5.42% 8.68% 12.99% 14.75% 14.01% 12.97% 10.40% 7.71% 5.14% 5.14% 2.55% 9.04 4.61% 60.46%
George Washington 0.15% 1.25% 2.47% 4.23% 6.20% 8.57% 10.77% 12.32% 12.33% 11.66% 10.35% 8.31% 6.05% 6.05% 3.86% 9.04 8.10% 58.29%
Massachusetts 0.06% 0.64% 1.36% 2.43% 4.02% 6.19% 8.68% 10.88% 12.40% 12.57% 12.26% 10.73% 8.55% 8.55% 6.11% 9.90 4.50% 46.66%
Rhode Island 0.01% 0.14% 0.45% 1.06% 2.30% 4.49% 7.19% 9.40% 11.11% 12.19% 12.66% 12.64% 11.39% 11.39% 9.13% 10.68 1.65% 36.15%
La Salle 0.00% 0.07% 0.22% 0.53% 1.20% 2.42% 4.69% 7.00% 9.35% 11.38% 13.38% 14.70% 14.31% 14.31% 12.38% 11.38 0.82% 25.47%
Fordham 0.00% 0.06% 0.18% 0.45% 0.97% 1.83% 3.40% 5.29% 7.64% 9.87% 12.55% 14.97% 16.80% 16.80% 15.95% 11.82 0.70% 19.83%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.16% 0.42% 0.98% 1.76% 3.03% 4.72% 6.80% 10.17% 15.21% 15.21% 23.44% 12.91 0.07% 6.41%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.07% 0.21% 0.53% 1.19% 2.23% 4.13% 6.77% 10.51% 15.92% 15.92% 22.73% 13.06 0.05% 4.27%
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01-12-2023, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 1/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 80.27% 12.93% 4.14% 1.58% 0.65% 0.28% 0.09% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.31 98.92%100.00%
Saint Louis 7.92% 23.97% 21.50% 16.66% 11.89% 7.95% 4.58% 2.66% 1.49% 0.79% 0.37% 0.16% 0.06% 0.06% 0.02% 3.76 70.05% 98.61%
Richmond 5.69% 25.90% 20.91% 15.71% 12.02% 8.32% 5.14% 2.95% 1.67% 0.87% 0.51% 0.21% 0.08% 0.08% 0.03% 3.87 68.20% 98.30%
Duquesne 1.66% 15.05% 19.64% 19.68% 15.62% 11.01% 7.23% 4.40% 2.64% 1.61% 0.87% 0.37% 0.16% 0.16% 0.05% 4.57 56.04% 96.94%
VCU 3.01% 11.68% 13.95% 15.74% 16.55% 14.28% 9.75% 6.34% 4.00% 2.35% 1.27% 0.68% 0.28% 0.28% 0.10% 5.08 44.39% 95.31%
George Mason 1.11% 7.06% 11.79% 15.13% 16.92% 16.50% 11.98% 8.07% 5.11% 3.09% 1.78% 0.87% 0.42% 0.42% 0.15% 5.61 35.09% 93.65%
St. Bonaventure 0.09% 0.79% 2.05% 3.90% 6.02% 8.87% 12.01% 12.96% 12.98% 11.81% 10.04% 8.00% 5.65% 5.65% 3.50% 9.02 6.83% 59.67%
Davidson 0.02% 0.45% 1.31% 2.84% 5.42% 8.68% 12.99% 14.75% 14.01% 12.97% 10.40% 7.71% 5.14% 5.14% 2.55% 9.04 4.61% 60.46%
George Washington 0.15% 1.25% 2.47% 4.23% 6.20% 8.57% 10.77% 12.32% 12.33% 11.66% 10.35% 8.31% 6.05% 6.05% 3.86% 9.04 8.10% 58.29%
Massachusetts 0.06% 0.64% 1.36% 2.43% 4.02% 6.19% 8.68% 10.88% 12.40% 12.57% 12.26% 10.73% 8.55% 8.55% 6.11% 9.90 4.50% 46.66%
Rhode Island 0.01% 0.14% 0.45% 1.06% 2.30% 4.49% 7.19% 9.40% 11.11% 12.19% 12.66% 12.64% 11.39% 11.39% 9.13% 10.68 1.65% 36.15%
La Salle 0.00% 0.07% 0.22% 0.53% 1.20% 2.42% 4.69% 7.00% 9.35% 11.38% 13.38% 14.70% 14.31% 14.31% 12.38% 11.38 0.82% 25.47%
Fordham 0.00% 0.06% 0.18% 0.45% 0.97% 1.83% 3.40% 5.29% 7.64% 9.87% 12.55% 14.97% 16.80% 16.80% 15.95% 11.82 0.70% 19.83%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.16% 0.42% 0.98% 1.76% 3.03% 4.72% 6.80% 10.17% 15.21% 15.21% 23.44% 12.91 0.07% 6.41%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.07% 0.21% 0.53% 1.19% 2.23% 4.13% 6.77% 10.51% 15.92% 15.92% 22.73% 13.06 0.05% 4.27%
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Great data.
In other words, pretty much a 99% chance of a double bye...
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01-16-2023, 10:10 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/14:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 57.35% 22.91% 10.64% 4.95% 2.39% 1.08% 0.42% 0.18% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.78 95.85% 99.98%
Saint Louis 17.25% 23.85% 20.65% 15.70% 10.74% 6.15% 3.05% 1.46% 0.67% 0.29% 0.13% 0.05% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 3.24 77.46% 99.53%
VCU 15.10% 19.66% 17.57% 15.78% 12.56% 8.95% 5.10% 2.72% 1.40% 0.66% 0.31% 0.13% 0.05% 0.05% 0.01% 3.70 68.11% 98.84%
Duquesne 3.69% 13.28% 18.06% 18.34% 15.93% 12.22% 7.99% 4.90% 2.82% 1.51% 0.74% 0.37% 0.12% 0.12% 0.04% 4.62 53.36% 97.21%
Richmond 4.27% 11.82% 15.46% 16.49% 15.94% 13.78% 9.43% 5.74% 3.25% 1.89% 1.04% 0.54% 0.24% 0.24% 0.10% 4.87 48.04% 96.18%
George Mason 1.77% 5.82% 10.76% 15.10% 18.16% 18.05% 12.95% 7.78% 4.59% 2.53% 1.37% 0.68% 0.31% 0.31% 0.11% 5.56 33.45% 94.99%
St. Bonaventure 0.31% 1.31% 3.15% 5.82% 9.25% 12.56% 15.07% 14.29% 12.08% 9.49% 7.00% 4.86% 2.90% 2.90% 1.51% 7.97 10.59% 73.84%
Massachusetts 0.15% 0.69% 1.67% 2.98% 4.88% 7.45% 10.56% 12.82% 13.23% 12.47% 11.11% 9.20% 6.91% 6.91% 4.53% 9.43 5.48% 54.41%
Davidson 0.02% 0.17% 0.51% 1.28% 2.81% 5.81% 11.45% 14.65% 15.49% 14.14% 12.06% 9.55% 7.07% 7.07% 4.29% 9.75 1.97% 52.17%
George Washington 0.07% 0.33% 0.94% 1.94% 3.59% 5.81% 8.56% 11.04% 12.41% 12.91% 12.46% 11.37% 9.72% 9.72% 7.28% 10.16 3.27% 44.68%
Fordham 0.01% 0.08% 0.27% 0.68% 1.35% 2.72% 5.08% 7.86% 10.46% 12.99% 14.89% 15.44% 13.71% 13.71% 9.71% 11.14 1.05% 28.50%
Rhode Island 0.02% 0.06% 0.21% 0.56% 1.38% 2.97% 5.26% 7.76% 10.06% 12.16% 13.44% 13.88% 13.83% 13.83% 11.98% 11.23 0.85% 28.28%
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% 0.20% 0.56% 1.27% 2.66% 4.54% 6.87% 9.02% 11.64% 14.54% 18.19% 18.19% 19.69% 12.17 0.30% 16.20%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.18% 0.45% 1.15% 2.34% 4.04% 6.06% 8.73% 11.33% 14.60% 17.89% 17.89% 22.23% 12.31 0.23% 14.27%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.08% 0.24% 0.57% 1.20% 2.48% 4.80% 9.05% 9.05% 18.52% 13.62 0.00% 0.92%
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01-16-2023, 11:46 AM
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Still 96% likely to get a double bye... that is what we are working for now. Just get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney and then win those three games...
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01-19-2023, 10:27 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/18:
Code:
Dayton 54.74% 25.94% 11.66% 4.58% 1.89% 0.76% 0.29% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.77 96.93% 99.99%
Saint Louis 17.27% 24.68% 23.83% 16.42% 9.91% 4.42% 1.96% 0.90% 0.37% 0.15% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.07 82.20% 99.76%
VCU 21.56% 24.99% 18.87% 14.02% 9.89% 5.40% 2.84% 1.33% 0.65% 0.27% 0.12% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.07 79.44% 99.56%
Richmond 3.97% 11.85% 17.70% 18.98% 16.38% 11.96% 8.19% 5.18% 2.93% 1.56% 0.73% 0.37% 0.15% 0.04% 0.00% 4.66 52.49% 97.14%
Duquesne 1.56% 8.15% 15.33% 19.45% 18.57% 14.20% 9.56% 6.01% 3.53% 1.97% 0.97% 0.47% 0.17% 0.06% 0.01% 5.06 44.49% 96.36%
George Mason 0.32% 1.51% 4.29% 8.43% 12.63% 16.57% 17.43% 14.56% 10.00% 6.50% 4.01% 2.24% 1.09% 0.38% 0.05% 6.97 14.55% 85.75%
St. Bonaventure 0.32% 1.60% 4.29% 8.73% 13.08% 16.38% 15.23% 12.48% 9.78% 7.22% 5.11% 3.14% 1.80% 0.72% 0.12% 7.11 14.95% 81.89%
George Washington 0.22% 0.90% 2.35% 4.93% 7.91% 11.35% 13.12% 13.14% 12.32% 10.83% 8.56% 6.76% 4.77% 2.52% 0.33% 8.30 8.40% 66.23%
Davidson 0.01% 0.09% 0.44% 1.30% 2.88% 5.66% 9.48% 13.09% 15.17% 14.97% 13.20% 10.47% 7.79% 4.75% 0.71% 9.62 1.83% 48.10%
Massachusetts 0.03% 0.16% 0.68% 1.54% 2.92% 4.89% 7.33% 10.33% 12.95% 13.89% 13.69% 12.20% 10.28% 6.94% 2.18% 10.02 2.41% 40.82%
Fordham 0.00% 0.06% 0.28% 0.76% 1.63% 3.02% 4.94% 7.48% 10.16% 13.00% 15.32% 15.90% 14.28% 9.14% 4.03% 10.79 1.11% 28.33%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.02% 0.15% 0.49% 1.10% 2.39% 4.29% 6.77% 9.49% 12.24% 15.09% 17.16% 16.49% 10.97% 3.37% 11.04 0.66% 24.70%
Rhode Island 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.32% 1.04% 2.58% 4.44% 6.69% 9.31% 11.69% 13.66% 15.17% 15.69% 13.35% 5.90% 11.19 0.48% 24.55%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.17% 0.40% 0.85% 1.80% 3.00% 4.86% 7.58% 12.05% 18.99% 31.12% 19.10% 12.97 0.07% 6.30%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.14% 0.33% 0.84% 1.89% 4.01% 8.49% 20.03% 64.21% 14.36 0.00% 0.53%
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2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-23-2023, 10:25 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
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Probabilities Through games of 1/21:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 35.68% 32.70% 18.96% 7.42% 3.12% 1.31% 0.54% 0.18% 0.05% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17 94.76% 99.97%
VCU 38.70% 27.33% 16.32% 8.55% 4.65% 2.36% 1.17% 0.52% 0.24% 0.10% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.30 90.90% 99.83%
Saint Louis 21.71% 25.04% 25.51% 14.17% 7.10% 3.49% 1.56% 0.80% 0.35% 0.19% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.85 86.43% 99.73%
Richmond 1.83% 5.95% 13.52% 18.92% 17.62% 14.05% 10.83% 7.26% 4.56% 2.78% 1.54% 0.77% 0.27% 0.10% 0.02% 5.36 40.21% 94.53%
Duquesne 0.62% 3.34% 8.83% 15.05% 17.44% 15.98% 13.38% 10.00% 6.68% 4.18% 2.43% 1.28% 0.56% 0.19% 0.04% 6.05 27.85% 91.32%
George Mason 0.54% 2.35% 6.81% 13.78% 16.52% 17.30% 15.39% 11.54% 7.25% 4.37% 2.41% 1.13% 0.45% 0.14% 0.02% 6.24 23.48% 91.47%
George Washington 0.73% 2.18% 5.42% 9.86% 12.32% 13.34% 12.75% 11.93% 10.47% 8.28% 5.81% 3.82% 2.18% 0.82% 0.08% 7.15 18.20% 79.01%
St. Bonaventure 0.15% 0.77% 2.66% 6.80% 10.15% 12.59% 13.66% 13.50% 12.10% 10.22% 7.50% 5.31% 3.11% 1.21% 0.26% 7.85 10.39% 72.39%
Davidson 0.01% 0.08% 0.55% 1.36% 3.15% 5.83% 9.37% 12.77% 14.62% 13.98% 12.84% 10.66% 8.43% 5.24% 1.11% 9.66 2.01% 47.75%
Fordham 0.03% 0.16% 0.82% 2.08% 3.77% 5.89% 8.09% 10.36% 12.76% 14.28% 13.82% 12.20% 9.17% 4.81% 1.76% 9.74 3.09% 43.96%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.03% 0.25% 0.80% 1.73% 3.25% 5.23% 7.74% 11.05% 14.51% 17.13% 16.56% 12.92% 6.77% 2.03% 10.56 1.08% 30.07%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.05% 0.32% 1.01% 1.88% 3.18% 4.94% 7.46% 10.02% 12.67% 14.85% 16.12% 14.33% 9.45% 3.74% 10.76 1.37% 28.85%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.38% 1.09% 2.29% 4.32% 6.98% 9.14% 11.99% 15.15% 18.94% 17.98% 11.55% 11.99 0.19% 15.24%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.16% 0.35% 0.72% 1.43% 2.39% 4.12% 6.95% 11.62% 18.65% 29.35% 24.22% 13.15 0.05% 5.10%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.08% 0.19% 0.49% 1.16% 2.62% 5.32% 10.99% 23.95% 55.18% 14.17 0.00% 0.79%
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Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-23-2023, 12:11 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
Still 96% likely to get a double bye... that is what we are working for now. Just get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney and then win those three games...
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Wasn't long ago we were 80% to win it and now we are 35%. 96% prediction to get the double bye the way this team has played the last 3 games shows the worthlessness of these predictions this early.
Bet away.
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01-23-2023, 12:47 PM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
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Still 95%. Doesnt matter if we are #1 or #4, just get the double bye.
How many years were we the #1 or #2 seed and yet did not win the A10 tourney?
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01-23-2023, 12:48 PM
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Major
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
Wasn't long ago we were 80% to win it and now we are 35%. 96% prediction to get the double bye the way this team has played the last 3 games shows the worthlessness of these predictions this early.
Bet away.
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Do you people understand how math works?
Anybody that criticizes these probabilities needs to sit down with a math textbook before they comment in this thread again.
If I flip a coin four times and each time it lands on heads, are you going to criticize me telling you it's 50-50 each flip?
There are additional metrics baked into this, but it's an exercise in efficiencies and probabilities. If you don't like KenPom numbers, that's cool. If you don't like probabilities, that's fine. But can folks stop coming into this thread and being ****y about the numbers? Everybody with two brain cells knows these aren't gospel. They're interesting all the same.
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9 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to flyer016 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-23-2023, 01:48 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by flyer016
Do you people understand how math works?
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Marysville Flyer does not.
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01-23-2023, 09:14 PM
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General
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This is essentially analytics, and its purest form, the above probabilities are correct. What analytics does not capture are trends in performance. Our trend is not our friend today. In each of the last three games we seemed to have morphed back into a slow offense with perimeter passing, little of an inside-outside game, essentially no dribble penetration, and a big man in Holmes who is now bottled up and unable to finish. Additionally, the Flyers were really exposed by dribble-penetration against a mediocre GW team. Prospective rivals are aware of this and we can expect more.
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01-24-2023, 11:34 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Marysville Flyer does not.
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Neither do you. You fail to recognize that it's equality of outcome that is the only thing that matters. No team in the A10 should have more than a 6.66666666666% chance at a 1 seed. In fact, each team should have a double bye, regardless of their record, that way . . . Sorry, I just couldn't resist.
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01-26-2023, 12:25 PM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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Probabilities Through games of 1/25:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 62.45% 23.36% 8.68% 3.38% 1.24% 0.51% 0.24% 0.09% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.61 97.86% 99.98%
Saint Louis 23.30% 33.22% 22.53% 10.27% 5.22% 2.68% 1.41% 0.73% 0.39% 0.17% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.62 89.32% 99.74%
Dayton 11.51% 30.18% 28.81% 15.23% 7.33% 3.56% 1.75% 0.86% 0.47% 0.18% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.04 85.72% 99.68%
George Washington 1.43% 4.65% 11.50% 14.88% 14.02% 12.66% 10.57% 8.98% 7.41% 5.59% 3.97% 2.51% 1.42% 0.40% 0.02% 6.17 32.45% 86.10%
Duquesne 0.51% 2.47% 7.03% 13.09% 14.97% 14.59% 13.18% 11.04% 8.63% 6.47% 4.20% 2.43% 1.08% 0.29% 0.02% 6.58 23.10% 85.50%
George Mason 0.11% 1.45% 6.13% 13.15% 16.15% 16.09% 14.03% 11.22% 8.44% 5.89% 3.76% 2.18% 1.08% 0.31% 0.03% 6.60 20.84% 86.77%
Richmond 0.40% 2.62% 7.27% 12.49% 14.18% 14.00% 12.61% 10.83% 8.81% 6.80% 4.83% 3.07% 1.49% 0.54% 0.09% 6.73 22.77% 83.19%
Fordham 0.26% 1.38% 4.65% 8.87% 11.13% 12.18% 12.59% 12.23% 11.05% 9.33% 7.25% 5.25% 2.89% 0.80% 0.14% 7.54 15.15% 74.33%
Davidson 0.02% 0.21% 0.98% 2.47% 4.50% 6.94% 9.54% 11.66% 12.86% 13.42% 13.29% 11.99% 9.24% 2.64% 0.27% 9.38 3.67% 49.16%
St. Bonaventure 0.02% 0.19% 1.02% 2.65% 4.52% 5.90% 7.76% 9.77% 11.35% 13.03% 13.83% 13.41% 11.25% 4.44% 0.87% 9.71 3.87% 43.17%
Massachusetts 0.01% 0.22% 1.08% 2.40% 4.09% 5.81% 7.86% 9.56% 11.50% 12.63% 13.43% 13.02% 11.25% 5.78% 1.37% 9.81 3.70% 42.53%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.02% 0.12% 0.62% 1.43% 2.70% 4.35% 6.39% 9.08% 12.41% 15.79% 18.79% 18.40% 8.09% 1.81% 10.92 0.76% 24.71%
Rhode Island 0.01% 0.05% 0.21% 0.49% 1.15% 2.20% 3.71% 5.87% 8.51% 11.30% 14.17% 16.89% 19.14% 11.66% 4.65% 11.25 0.76% 22.19%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.08% 0.19% 0.37% 0.69% 1.24% 2.26% 4.13% 7.59% 15.42% 40.81% 27.19% 13.60 0.03% 2.60%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.08% 0.23% 0.50% 1.20% 2.83% 7.32% 24.24% 63.55% 14.43 0.00% 0.36%
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Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-26-2023, 01:39 PM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
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98% for double bye...
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Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-26-2023, 03:30 PM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
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Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
98% for double bye...
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No, 86% now.
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01-26-2023, 03:37 PM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
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Originally Posted by LIBob
No, 86% now.
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Oh ****, I was adding up the top line... I didnt look to see that it was no longer us... maybe wishful thinking
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01-30-2023, 10:37 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
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Probabilities Through games of 1/29:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Saint Louis 38.65% 29.02% 20.47% 7.30% 2.60% 1.11% 0.47% 0.20% 0.11% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.14 95.45% 99.94%
VCU 36.52% 30.10% 17.63% 8.04% 3.84% 1.93% 0.98% 0.49% 0.25% 0.12% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.28 92.29% 99.79%
Dayton 22.95% 31.08% 28.97% 9.92% 4.01% 1.69% 0.78% 0.35% 0.15% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.53 92.91% 99.90%
Fordham 0.74% 2.90% 8.84% 17.52% 15.50% 12.76% 10.43% 8.53% 6.88% 5.59% 4.64% 3.33% 2.03% 0.30% 0.03% 6.38 29.99% 84.08%
George Washington 0.67% 3.19% 7.69% 12.84% 14.14% 12.50% 11.32% 9.72% 8.27% 6.62% 5.38% 4.22% 2.68% 0.74% 0.02% 6.80 24.39% 80.34%
Duquesne 0.20% 1.05% 4.13% 10.08% 12.21% 13.37% 12.60% 11.86% 10.46% 8.79% 7.05% 5.00% 2.48% 0.71% 0.03% 7.42 15.45% 75.93%
Richmond 0.09% 0.85% 3.77% 10.36% 11.77% 11.97% 11.62% 11.05% 10.57% 9.81% 8.33% 5.75% 2.89% 1.00% 0.18% 7.63 15.07% 72.05%
St. Bonaventure 0.12% 0.95% 3.64% 8.30% 10.63% 11.40% 11.83% 11.08% 10.12% 9.63% 8.60% 7.09% 5.12% 1.37% 0.13% 7.94 13.00% 68.06%
George Mason 0.02% 0.31% 1.88% 6.34% 9.10% 10.81% 11.63% 12.69% 12.55% 11.71% 9.93% 7.48% 4.22% 1.19% 0.16% 8.28 8.54% 65.32%
Massachusetts 0.04% 0.33% 1.58% 3.90% 6.04% 7.61% 9.19% 10.37% 11.41% 12.25% 12.42% 11.72% 9.03% 3.49% 0.63% 9.22 5.85% 50.47%
Saint Joseph's 0.01% 0.12% 0.81% 2.85% 5.28% 7.52% 9.09% 10.76% 11.77% 12.49% 13.10% 12.76% 10.25% 2.83% 0.35% 9.42 3.79% 48.22%
Davidson 0.00% 0.03% 0.33% 1.73% 3.32% 4.75% 6.21% 7.51% 9.46% 11.48% 13.87% 17.56% 18.98% 4.38% 0.38% 10.34 2.09% 33.34%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.07% 0.28% 0.81% 1.52% 2.44% 3.59% 4.90% 7.05% 9.81% 13.52% 18.60% 25.62% 9.34% 2.45% 11.25 1.16% 20.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.13% 0.23% 0.43% 0.82% 1.29% 2.44% 4.66% 10.57% 49.07% 30.30% 13.88 0.02% 1.67%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 0.29% 0.63% 1.78% 6.11% 25.59% 65.36% 14.51 0.00% 0.24%
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3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-30-2023, 11:00 AM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
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93% to get the double bye.... wow this is a down year for the A10
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01-30-2023, 11:02 AM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,946
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Thanked 1,414 Times in 671 Posts
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 1/29:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Saint Louis 38.65% 29.02% 20.47% 7.30% 2.60% 1.11% 0.47% 0.20% 0.11% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.14 95.45% 99.94%
VCU 36.52% 30.10% 17.63% 8.04% 3.84% 1.93% 0.98% 0.49% 0.25% 0.12% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.28 92.29% 99.79%
Dayton 22.95% 31.08% 28.97% 9.92% 4.01% 1.69% 0.78% 0.35% 0.15% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.53 92.91% 99.90%
Fordham 0.74% 2.90% 8.84% 17.52% 15.50% 12.76% 10.43% 8.53% 6.88% 5.59% 4.64% 3.33% 2.03% 0.30% 0.03% 6.38 29.99% 84.08%
George Washington 0.67% 3.19% 7.69% 12.84% 14.14% 12.50% 11.32% 9.72% 8.27% 6.62% 5.38% 4.22% 2.68% 0.74% 0.02% 6.80 24.39% 80.34%
Duquesne 0.20% 1.05% 4.13% 10.08% 12.21% 13.37% 12.60% 11.86% 10.46% 8.79% 7.05% 5.00% 2.48% 0.71% 0.03% 7.42 15.45% 75.93%
Richmond 0.09% 0.85% 3.77% 10.36% 11.77% 11.97% 11.62% 11.05% 10.57% 9.81% 8.33% 5.75% 2.89% 1.00% 0.18% 7.63 15.07% 72.05%
St. Bonaventure 0.12% 0.95% 3.64% 8.30% 10.63% 11.40% 11.83% 11.08% 10.12% 9.63% 8.60% 7.09% 5.12% 1.37% 0.13% 7.94 13.00% 68.06%
George Mason 0.02% 0.31% 1.88% 6.34% 9.10% 10.81% 11.63% 12.69% 12.55% 11.71% 9.93% 7.48% 4.22% 1.19% 0.16% 8.28 8.54% 65.32%
Massachusetts 0.04% 0.33% 1.58% 3.90% 6.04% 7.61% 9.19% 10.37% 11.41% 12.25% 12.42% 11.72% 9.03% 3.49% 0.63% 9.22 5.85% 50.47%
Saint Joseph's 0.01% 0.12% 0.81% 2.85% 5.28% 7.52% 9.09% 10.76% 11.77% 12.49% 13.10% 12.76% 10.25% 2.83% 0.35% 9.42 3.79% 48.22%
Davidson 0.00% 0.03% 0.33% 1.73% 3.32% 4.75% 6.21% 7.51% 9.46% 11.48% 13.87% 17.56% 18.98% 4.38% 0.38% 10.34 2.09% 33.34%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.07% 0.28% 0.81% 1.52% 2.44% 3.59% 4.90% 7.05% 9.81% 13.52% 18.60% 25.62% 9.34% 2.45% 11.25 1.16% 20.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.13% 0.23% 0.43% 0.82% 1.29% 2.44% 4.66% 10.57% 49.07% 30.30% 13.88 0.02% 1.67%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 0.29% 0.63% 1.78% 6.11% 25.59% 65.36% 14.51 0.00% 0.24%
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Fordham, GW, and Duquesne in the mix for the double bye. What a world.
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Mad Props to flyerfanatic86 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-30-2023, 01:45 PM
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General
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86
Fordham, GW, and Duquesne in the mix for the double bye. What a world.
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Flyers hold the tie-breaker over Duquesne, lose the tie-breaker to GW, with Fordham yet to be determined.
Fordham could be the sleeper of the A10 this year.
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
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01-30-2023, 03:29 PM
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Major General
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,616
Thanks: 3,383
Thanked 3,108 Times in 1,418 Posts
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
Flyers hold the tie-breaker over Duquesne, lose the tie-breaker to GW, with Fordham yet to be determined.
Fordham could be the sleeper of the A10 this year.
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
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We beat Fordham Jan 10 at Fordham. Would have the tie-breaker over them.
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Mad Props to m21eagle45 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-02-2023, 03:19 PM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Probabilities Through games of 2/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 51.80% 26.71% 12.26% 5.17% 2.44% 0.96% 0.41% 0.15% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.86 95.94% 99.97%
Saint Louis 24.56% 29.42% 24.63% 13.77% 4.53% 1.77% 0.75% 0.33% 0.14% 0.08% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.56 92.38% 99.88%
Dayton 20.86% 32.71% 26.95% 10.45% 5.12% 2.23% 0.98% 0.42% 0.19% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.61 90.98% 99.92%
Fordham 1.98% 6.19% 17.42% 25.02% 16.30% 10.78% 7.59% 5.38% 3.80% 2.49% 1.68% 0.92% 0.40% 0.06% 0.01% 5.04 50.61% 94.45%
St. Bonaventure 0.41% 2.18% 6.84% 14.28% 19.39% 16.77% 13.06% 9.39% 6.61% 4.88% 3.11% 1.86% 0.93% 0.30% 0.02% 6.28 23.70% 88.92%
Duquesne 0.16% 1.03% 3.98% 8.99% 13.21% 14.19% 13.29% 12.00% 10.31% 8.44% 6.75% 4.32% 2.34% 0.94% 0.05% 7.38 14.16% 77.16%
George Mason 0.02% 0.45% 2.49% 7.22% 10.40% 13.24% 14.86% 15.18% 13.46% 10.10% 6.60% 3.72% 1.62% 0.57% 0.06% 7.63 10.19% 77.33%
George Washington 0.17% 0.88% 2.76% 6.41% 11.00% 12.62% 12.85% 11.88% 10.57% 9.47% 8.00% 6.67% 4.71% 1.93% 0.08% 7.99 10.23% 69.15%
Saint Joseph's 0.02% 0.16% 1.01% 3.49% 7.63% 11.04% 13.06% 14.12% 13.90% 12.26% 10.45% 7.76% 3.72% 1.26% 0.13% 8.50 4.68% 64.43%
Richmond 0.01% 0.11% 0.82% 2.60% 4.85% 7.54% 9.71% 11.52% 12.95% 14.31% 14.79% 10.56% 6.27% 3.17% 0.77% 9.29 3.55% 50.13%
Massachusetts 0.01% 0.12% 0.67% 1.67% 2.96% 4.77% 6.79% 9.57% 12.72% 15.28% 14.98% 13.07% 10.10% 6.00% 1.30% 10.00 2.47% 39.27%
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.62% 1.45% 2.58% 3.97% 5.54% 7.85% 10.58% 14.28% 19.76% 21.94% 10.21% 1.19% 11.14 0.68% 22.06%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.30% 0.62% 1.15% 2.00% 3.31% 5.10% 8.38% 12.87% 20.14% 25.91% 15.00% 5.10% 11.88 0.41% 12.60%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.36% 0.66% 1.15% 2.22% 3.35% 5.62% 9.14% 15.89% 41.72% 19.74% 13.28 0.03% 4.54%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.05% 0.13% 0.31% 0.82% 2.08% 6.17% 18.85% 71.56% 14.56 0.00% 0.20%
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4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-06-2023, 11:00 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Probabilities Through games of 2/5:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 82.92% 12.04% 3.21% 1.12% 0.52% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.25 99.29%100.00%
Dayton 7.17% 34.81% 23.61% 17.89% 9.17% 4.20% 1.81% 0.78% 0.34% 0.13% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.15 83.48% 99.78%
Saint Louis 7.47% 34.98% 24.66% 15.68% 8.72% 4.77% 2.25% 0.89% 0.36% 0.15% 0.05% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.15 82.79% 99.77%
St. Bonaventure 1.12% 7.96% 19.11% 21.36% 20.10% 13.45% 7.58% 4.51% 2.27% 1.28% 0.76% 0.33% 0.13% 0.04% 0.00% 4.78 49.55% 97.46%
Fordham 0.79% 5.23% 14.86% 17.00% 15.99% 13.20% 10.57% 8.40% 5.71% 3.70% 2.41% 1.28% 0.64% 0.20% 0.03% 5.66 37.88% 91.74%
Duquesne 0.49% 4.20% 9.91% 14.58% 18.46% 18.27% 13.08% 8.62% 5.38% 3.33% 1.93% 1.04% 0.55% 0.15% 0.01% 5.84 29.18% 92.99%
Richmond 0.01% 0.31% 1.73% 4.16% 8.79% 12.96% 14.75% 13.87% 11.97% 10.20% 7.97% 6.18% 4.34% 2.17% 0.59% 8.26 6.21% 68.55%
George Mason 0.00% 0.20% 1.09% 2.91% 6.68% 11.66% 14.68% 15.17% 14.39% 11.86% 9.11% 6.32% 3.88% 1.79% 0.26% 8.46 4.20% 66.78%
Davidson 0.00% 0.04% 0.51% 1.95% 3.80% 5.98% 8.96% 12.50% 14.80% 15.25% 13.36% 10.58% 7.77% 4.02% 0.46% 9.51 2.50% 48.55%
George Washington 0.02% 0.16% 0.80% 1.69% 3.55% 6.69% 10.66% 12.31% 13.21% 13.18% 12.09% 10.69% 8.64% 5.66% 0.65% 9.54 2.66% 49.09%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.02% 0.13% 0.61% 1.98% 4.28% 7.69% 10.19% 12.32% 13.79% 15.31% 14.33% 11.07% 6.64% 1.65% 10.24 0.76% 37.22%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.03% 0.19% 0.54% 1.01% 1.75% 2.97% 4.48% 6.75% 9.54% 12.67% 16.14% 18.33% 18.76% 6.86% 11.68 0.76% 17.70%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.02% 0.16% 0.34% 0.70% 1.39% 2.59% 4.34% 6.54% 8.99% 11.48% 15.01% 19.18% 18.60% 10.66% 11.91 0.52% 16.08%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.19% 0.54% 1.23% 2.30% 3.75% 5.57% 7.75% 10.95% 14.17% 17.49% 23.38% 12.64% 12.19 0.23% 13.62%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.07% 0.18% 0.39% 0.84% 1.83% 3.90% 7.98% 18.59% 66.19% 14.38 0.00% 0.68%
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2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-06-2023, 01:23 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Join Date: Jul 2009
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Looking at the schedules, SBU probably has a better chance that the Flyers.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-09-2023, 10:52 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Probabilities Through games of 2/8:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 60.10% 26.19% 8.25% 3.45% 1.35% 0.47% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.62 97.99%100.00%
Dayton 26.01% 43.42% 19.02% 7.22% 2.75% 1.06% 0.34% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.23 95.67% 99.98%
Saint Louis 10.89% 19.54% 31.94% 22.02% 10.34% 3.26% 1.25% 0.50% 0.18% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.20 84.39% 99.92%
Fordham 1.62% 5.19% 19.82% 25.61% 18.88% 11.32% 6.82% 4.72% 2.76% 1.69% 0.95% 0.42% 0.15% 0.04% 0.00% 4.82 52.24% 96.74%
Duquesne 1.12% 4.32% 14.12% 22.09% 23.13% 16.23% 8.43% 4.80% 2.62% 1.41% 0.92% 0.52% 0.25% 0.04% 0.00% 5.09 41.64% 96.86%
St. Bonaventure 0.18% 1.03% 4.47% 10.81% 19.08% 20.29% 15.83% 10.62% 6.97% 4.84% 3.18% 1.67% 0.77% 0.25% 0.00% 6.52 16.49% 89.29%
George Washington 0.07% 0.22% 0.84% 2.25% 5.90% 12.10% 15.07% 13.83% 13.09% 11.38% 9.17% 7.81% 5.70% 2.55% 0.02% 8.67 3.38% 63.37%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.03% 0.24% 1.13% 3.99% 9.06% 13.11% 15.06% 14.58% 13.50% 12.32% 9.74% 5.61% 1.62% 0.02% 9.06 1.40% 57.19%
Richmond 0.00% 0.03% 0.46% 1.62% 4.15% 6.95% 10.05% 12.60% 12.83% 13.18% 12.64% 11.07% 9.39% 4.42% 0.61% 9.54 2.11% 48.69%
George Mason 0.00% 0.01% 0.19% 0.62% 2.37% 5.63% 10.35% 14.28% 16.06% 15.34% 13.43% 10.94% 7.31% 3.30% 0.18% 9.56 0.82% 49.51%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.50% 2.31% 4.65% 7.03% 8.43% 10.09% 11.85% 12.58% 13.01% 11.89% 10.90% 6.54% 0.23% 9.71 2.81% 44.87%
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.14% 0.59% 2.43% 4.52% 6.29% 7.44% 9.76% 11.17% 13.03% 14.44% 14.46% 13.58% 2.12% 10.72 0.75% 31.20%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.23% 0.75% 1.55% 2.70% 3.66% 5.46% 7.96% 10.36% 14.90% 20.24% 25.60% 6.55% 12.04 0.27% 14.38%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.24% 0.52% 1.18% 2.19% 3.76% 6.75% 10.60% 15.63% 22.26% 31.10% 5.72% 12.46 0.06% 7.94%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.37% 0.97% 2.95% 10.96% 84.55% 14.78 0.00% 0.06%
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5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-09-2023, 11:17 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
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What's the tiebreaker formula should UD and VCU tie for 1st place? Who's the #1 seed?? Figgie??
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02-09-2023, 11:23 AM
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Major General
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Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 3,817
Thanks: 2,633
Thanked 2,700 Times in 1,283 Posts
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Originally Posted by rollo
What's the tiebreaker formula should UD and VCU tie for 1st place? Who's the #1 seed?? Figgie??
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This is part guess, part recall...but I "thought" they start with the second place team in the standings and UD and VCU's record against them, and so on, and so on...until the tie is broken?
Edit:
https://pickinsplinters.com/2019/03/...0the%20highest
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Mad Props to Radar For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-09-2023, 11:30 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Originally Posted by Radar
This is part guess, part recall...but I "thought" they start with the second place team in the standings and UD and VCU's record against them, and so on, and so on...until the tie is broken?
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You are correct, sir. UD is in a very good place with that as VCU also lost to the Bonnies. Probably comes down to UD beating Duquesne while VCU lost to them.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-09-2023, 11:35 AM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,503
Thanks: 4,687
Thanked 6,152 Times in 2,316 Posts
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The A10 tiebreaking rules starts at the top and goes down in groups of common records. Except that when you make a decision on a seed, let's say 1 and 2, they are no longer grouped. So, if UD/VCU are tied solely at #1, it would be winning percentage over the next group of teams.
So, currently, VCU beat SLU but UD hasn't played them. And UD beat Fordham, and VCU hasn't played them. Then we've both lost to Bonnies. But then it's Duq/GW and We beat DUQ while VCU lost, but we lost to GW and VCU hasn't played them.
So, in a weird way it's "better" to lose to bottom-feeding teams in the A10 for A10 tournament seeding procedures.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-09-2023, 11:50 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
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So, barrign a complete collapse by UD and VCU, St. Louis has to beat VCU (2/28) and we need to sweep St. Louis.
Doable. Very doable.
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Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-09-2023, 11:52 AM
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General
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
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Which part Rollo? The complete collapse or the beating Slu/VCU losing to SLU?
Cause from what I've seen in A10 play both are doable, very doable.
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3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Medford For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-09-2023, 12:25 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
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I think we all know the answer(s) to that.
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02-13-2023, 11:32 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Probabilities Through games of 2/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 55.71% 28.51% 9.67% 3.97% 1.47% 0.51% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.69 97.85%100.00%
Dayton 35.21% 47.06% 12.10% 3.82% 1.19% 0.46% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.91 98.19%100.00%
Saint Louis 4.75% 10.32% 26.81% 32.58% 18.30% 4.43% 1.88% 0.64% 0.19% 0.07% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.75 74.46% 99.90%
Fordham 3.29% 9.33% 33.21% 25.93% 15.35% 6.89% 3.26% 1.59% 0.73% 0.27% 0.10% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.90 71.76% 99.58%
Duquesne 0.98% 4.34% 15.26% 22.78% 27.31% 15.34% 7.14% 3.56% 1.67% 0.80% 0.50% 0.23% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 4.86 43.36% 98.38%
St. Bonaventure 0.04% 0.35% 1.88% 6.18% 16.47% 24.85% 18.56% 12.10% 7.89% 5.32% 3.39% 1.82% 0.96% 0.19% 0.00% 6.88 8.44% 88.31%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.02% 0.22% 1.10% 4.88% 13.40% 17.61% 17.11% 14.94% 12.19% 9.40% 6.59% 2.41% 0.14% 0.00% 8.42 1.34% 69.27%
George Mason 0.00% 0.01% 0.15% 0.46% 1.93% 6.10% 12.35% 16.72% 18.47% 17.53% 13.78% 9.10% 3.01% 0.39% 0.01% 9.16 0.62% 56.18%
George Washington 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.62% 2.80% 9.80% 13.34% 14.01% 14.13% 12.87% 11.40% 9.86% 8.43% 2.54% 0.01% 9.26 0.81% 54.89%
Richmond 0.00% 0.01% 0.34% 1.39% 3.96% 6.47% 10.29% 14.00% 14.62% 15.74% 14.58% 10.85% 6.15% 1.58% 0.01% 9.31 1.75% 51.09%
La Salle 0.00% 0.03% 0.20% 0.88% 5.07% 8.55% 9.83% 11.24% 13.25% 14.04% 13.48% 13.17% 8.26% 1.91% 0.11% 9.41 1.10% 49.03%
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.26% 1.11% 2.58% 4.05% 6.44% 9.20% 11.14% 15.12% 18.85% 20.11% 10.83% 0.30% 11.06 0.28% 23.66%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.16% 0.56% 1.27% 2.19% 4.00% 7.29% 11.61% 17.06% 23.52% 25.66% 6.65% 12.37 0.04% 8.22%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.17% 0.35% 0.89% 2.70% 6.50% 11.87% 24.28% 44.48% 8.70% 13.22 0.00% 1.48%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.13% 0.57% 2.78% 12.28% 84.22% 14.80 0.00% 0.01%
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4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-13-2023, 01:30 PM
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Colonel
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Coldwater
Posts: 1,575
Thanks: 2,322
Thanked 1,206 Times in 542 Posts
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I'm smelling a 16 game win streak.
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4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to UDGutter2 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-15-2023, 11:31 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
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Big Wednesday
Although our Flyers aren't in action, today is a big day for our positioning:
VCU @ URI -
URI victory brings VCU back to us and UD moves into top seed via tie breaker (1-0 v Fordham) or VCU stretches out.
SBU @ Fordham -
SBU win gives a full game lead vs Fordham or Fordham joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
Davidson @ SLU -
Davidson win gives a full game lead vs SLU or SLU joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
St Joe @ Duquesne -
Another breathing room game cheering for SJU.
Richmond @ LaSalle and GMU @ GW are in a cluster. Their fighting amongst themselves.
Unfortunately, home courts are not in our favor (except URI).
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
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8 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-15-2023, 04:05 PM
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General
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Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
Although our Flyers aren't in action, today is a big day for our positioning:
VCU @ URI -
URI victory brings VCU back to us and UD moves into top seed via tie breaker (1-0 v Fordham) or VCU stretches out.
SBU @ Fordham -
SBU win gives a full game lead vs Fordham or Fordham joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
Davidson @ SLU -
Davidson win gives a full game lead vs SLU or SLU joins us at 9-4 where we hold the tie breaker.
St Joe @ Duquesne -
Another breathing room game cheering for SJU.
Richmond @ LaSalle and GMU @ GW are in a cluster. Their fighting amongst themselves.
Unfortunately, home courts are not in our favor (except URI).
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Would be one helluva bet. I'm sure there's someone out here that like to make those bets....not me though. I'l. stick to Vegas trips!
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-16-2023, 10:52 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
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Probabilities Through games of 2/15:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 61.86% 25.19% 8.49% 3.29% 1.02% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57 98.83%100.00%
Dayton 28.21% 49.05% 15.10% 5.26% 1.45% 0.62% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.06 97.61%100.00%
Saint Louis 5.23% 11.93% 26.49% 34.04% 20.36% 1.56% 0.32% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.59 77.68%100.00%
Fordham 3.77% 9.94% 34.80% 28.68% 17.26% 3.94% 1.20% 0.33% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.65 77.18% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.94% 3.86% 14.53% 25.54% 34.83% 12.71% 4.75% 1.88% 0.62% 0.22% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.62 44.87% 99.66%
St. Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 1.14% 9.40% 30.44% 22.10% 13.94% 9.35% 7.22% 3.76% 1.69% 0.82% 0.07% 0.00% 7.30 1.21% 86.44%
George Mason 0.00% 0.01% 0.32% 0.83% 4.14% 12.35% 24.34% 23.20% 16.70% 10.65% 5.59% 1.70% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 7.96 1.16% 81.89%
La Salle 0.00% 0.03% 0.18% 0.95% 8.31% 15.36% 14.26% 18.56% 18.50% 11.86% 6.39% 3.63% 1.86% 0.13% 0.00% 8.11 1.15% 76.14%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 1.86% 14.88% 17.70% 16.53% 15.12% 13.54% 10.22% 7.80% 2.17% 0.03% 0.00% 8.61 0.16% 66.25%
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.66% 2.11% 5.30% 9.85% 14.70% 22.48% 23.33% 14.53% 5.75% 1.15% 0.03% 10.12 0.11% 32.73%
George Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.45% 4.45% 6.80% 8.41% 13.05% 15.66% 15.79% 17.26% 15.87% 2.19% 0.06% 10.36 0.03% 33.18%
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 1.30% 2.49% 5.90% 8.33% 10.49% 17.16% 23.81% 22.60% 6.78% 0.89% 11.30 0.00% 18.27%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.48% 1.26% 3.42% 6.96% 14.15% 20.45% 22.31% 18.56% 12.26% 12.50 0.00% 5.31%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.80% 3.08% 7.66% 17.61% 37.43% 33.32% 13.87 0.00% 0.10%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.11% 0.43% 1.44% 10.85% 33.66% 53.44% 14.38 0.00% 0.05%
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02-20-2023, 10:43 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/19:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
VCU 67.63% 26.84% 4.31% 1.09% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.39 99.86%100.00%
Dayton 26.69% 56.36% 13.22% 3.05% 0.52% 0.14% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.95 99.31%100.00%
Saint Louis 5.58% 13.18% 40.82% 36.72% 3.55% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.20 96.29%100.00%
Fordham 0.10% 3.48% 35.63% 31.48% 21.49% 6.70% 0.90% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.96 70.69%100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.13% 5.53% 25.87% 51.58% 9.82% 3.93% 1.85% 0.70% 0.31% 0.20% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.92 31.53% 99.42%
George Mason 0.00% 0.02% 0.44% 1.28% 8.74% 23.48% 23.18% 18.98% 12.53% 7.42% 3.35% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.36 1.73% 88.64%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.26% 7.09% 9.75% 15.51% 19.40% 20.26% 14.98% 7.82% 4.00% 0.86% 0.04% 0.00% 8.37 0.31% 72.32%
George Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 2.17% 18.91% 17.66% 15.14% 16.23% 12.38% 9.51% 5.82% 1.59% 0.47% 0.00% 8.41 0.13% 70.23%
St. Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 2.11% 12.10% 15.20% 14.90% 16.39% 16.82% 11.85% 8.22% 1.80% 0.57% 0.00% 8.85 0.05% 60.74%
Saint Joseph's 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.95% 13.72% 12.84% 12.05% 12.05% 17.73% 14.70% 14.16% 1.74% 0.05% 0.00% 9.14 0.01% 51.61%
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 1.04% 2.98% 5.09% 7.54% 10.37% 16.86% 25.00% 19.30% 10.61% 1.10% 0.00% 10.41 0.11% 27.13%
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 2.25% 5.60% 9.69% 10.59% 10.60% 16.61% 22.55% 11.71% 9.50% 0.28% 10.77 0.00% 28.77%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.28% 1.56% 7.05% 17.18% 46.16% 23.55% 4.19% 12.95 0.00% 0.32%
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.21% 0.58% 1.32% 3.80% 7.72% 16.00% 40.40% 29.94% 13.77 0.00% 0.83%
Loyola Chicago 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.41% 9.53% 24.32% 65.60% 14.55 0.00% 0.00%
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02-20-2023, 11:01 AM
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Relatively quiet week in the A10, unless upset city abounds, which given the state of the A10 is certainly a possibility
Tuesday:
VCU @ St Joes
SLU @ Richmond ... Well both are on the road....
Wednesday:
UD @ UMass
Bona @ Davidson
Duquesne @ LaSalle
GW @ Rhody
Fordham @ Loyola (how does Fordham bounce back from that drubbing?)
Friday
Richmond @ VCU ... Game of the week, will Richmond win one for the Mooney
Saturday:
Rhody @ Fordham
Mason @ UD
LaSalle @ GW
Loyola @ St Louis
Sunday:
St Joes @ Bona
Davidson @ Duquesne
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-20-2023, 11:04 AM
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A 2-0 week locks up a double bye for UD I believe regardless of what anyone else does.
A 2-0 week combined with a Fordham upset locks up a top 3 seed I believe.
A 2-0 week combined with an 0-2 week from SLU may lock up the 2 seed, not sure about tie breakers however.
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02-20-2023, 11:16 AM
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Would be real nice to be the 1 seed and have Fordham as the 4 seed
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02-20-2023, 11:17 AM
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Ideally, we’re in the opposite bracket from VCU and SLU. If SLU falls to 4, I would prefer to be the 2 and let VCU play SLU.
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02-20-2023, 01:11 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by Medford
A 2-0 week combined with an 0-2 week from SLU may lock up the 2 seed, not sure about tie breakers however.
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It doesn't look that way to me. We would have a 2 game lead on SLU in this case, but then if we went 0-2 while STL went 2-0, we would be tied again.
Remember, ties are broken from the top down, and remain that way. So, when you are tie breaking, you use individual tie-broken teams above you, and groups of teams not tie-broken below you.
In the situation I have it goes all the way down to StB and GW being tied at 8-10. STL is 2-0, while we are 0-2.
--Figgie
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02-20-2023, 01:25 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by Medford
A 2-0 week locks up a double bye for UD I believe regardless of what anyone else does.
A 2-0 week combined with a Fordham upset locks up a top 3 seed I believe.
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The first statement appears accurate.
The second one does not appear accurate. If VCU would lose a few games and Fordham wins 3 of the 4, we would be in 4th place. This one would have the La Salle game as the break point for VCU/Day at #3 because we'd have to lose that game to be tied with VCU for that 3rd place tie-break.
But, 28 games to go, and a few unexpected losses will mess all of this up still.
--Figgie
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02-20-2023, 01:33 PM
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Yeah, I figured the 4th place finish in that scenario could playout far enough down that UD wouldn't own the tie breaker; I didn't have the desire to break down the scenarios much beyond Fordham... That is why I just throw something out there and count on Figgie to set the record straight
And I guess I didn't really count on VCU dropping several games down the stretch. Frankly dropping any of the games to UMASS, Mason or LaSalle would be a huge disappointment. I've been dissapointed once or twice this season; really, REALLY hoping that the play an increased pace of the offense the last 3 games is a sign that the team is putting it all together as they get healthy. Dropping one of next 3 would be a huge dent in those hopes.
Last edited by Medford; 02-20-2023 at 01:36 PM..
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02-20-2023, 01:46 PM
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On further look, lets say SLU wins out, and UD wins both this week as described above with Fordham dropping 1, but winning both next week. That would put UD at 12-6, SLU at 14-4 and Fordham at 12-6. In order to get a 3 way tie at 12-6, VCU would need to drop 3 of their last 4, including that game vs SLU.
In a 3 way tie, do they look at the head to head of the 3 teams first? VCU & UD would be 2-1 while Fordham would be 0-2. so Fordham is knocked out and then it is a 2 team tie breaker for UD and VCU, which would work its way down to the record vs whomever is in 5th or 6th or whatever the break point is b/w UD and VCU, but either way UD would be 3rd at worse.
The other possibility is that UD goes 2-0 this week, 0-2 next week, VCU does what is described above and Duquesne wins out while Fordham drops a game this week, which would put Duquense in a 3 way tie for 3rd (they would be fordham as well next week) at 12-6. In that scenario, UD would be 2-1 vs that group, while Duquesne would be 1-1 and VCU would be 1-2 and then UD would be the 2 seed.
so anyways, 2 wins this week and a lose by Fordham I think locks up a top 3 seed, but anything less than 3-0 over the next 3 is a disappointment.
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02-20-2023, 08:20 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by Medford
so anyways, 2 wins this week and a lose by Fordham I think locks up a top 3 seed, but anything less than 3-0 over the next 3 is a disappointment.
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I went back and looked at my results. (2^28) I must have switched H/A for a result set. Using UD's 2 victories this week, and either loss for Fordham, I show no results of UD out of 3rd place. So, can Fordham lose at Loyola or while hosting Rhode Island?
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02-20-2023, 08:58 PM
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I just want to see the team win at UMass. Take nothing for granted this year.
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02-22-2023, 10:41 AM
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I didn't see SLU losing to Richmond, but there you have it.
Fordham holds the head-to-head tie breaker with SLU.
Fordham giving 2pts at Loyola tonight.
Duquesne lurking in 5th giving 2pts at LaSalle. SLU hold head-to-head tie breaker.
Both Fordham and Duquesne have, what appear to be, favorable schedules down the stretch.
SLU fans may want to arrange their travel plans to arrive in Brooklyn by 2pm on Wednesday.
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