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Old 02-19-2014, 01:31 PM
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Cool A10 Total Bids?

With anywhere from 4 to 6 conference games left per team, here are the remaining schedules of four A10 teams who range from "Next Four Out" to the lower portion of being "Just Safely In". With the below schedules in mind, I see GW winning at-least two more, Richmond wins three, Saint Joes wins four or five, and if the Flyers win four or more, then I think there might be an outside chance of six or seven teams from the A10 make the field. Unfortunately, I don't think UD's Chances of moving up in conference standings is very good, given the below remaining schedules, as we might go 4-2 or 5-1 and not gain much conference positioning, but if the top seven can dominate the bottom six, and UD can win four or more, and none of the below clubs go down in the first conference tourney game, then six or seven NCAA bids might not be all that unrealistic. I think UD is the wild card because I fully expect the other three schools to win their share of remaining games. Perhaps Richmond without Lindsay could be in some danger, but Coach Mooney is resilient, Richmond will still compete. How awesome would it be on Selection Sunday to see six or seven A10 Schools on the bracket. And hopefully, our Dayton Flyers can be one of those A10 schools to dance.


GW:
@SLU
GMason
St. Joes
@ Fordham

Saint Joes:
@Rhody
Fordham
Dayton
@St. Bonnnies
@GW
La Salle

Richmond:
LaSalle
@Mason
@Rhody
VCU
@Dayton

Dayton:
LaSalle
@Duquesne
@Saint Joes
UMass
@SLU
Richond

Last edited by Beatty Town Coach; 02-19-2014 at 01:48 PM.. Reason: Formatting
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Old 02-19-2014, 01:48 PM
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I took your original formatting and put it in a table:

Code:
                            
    GW      |  Saint Joes |   Richmond   |    Dayton    | 
------------+-------------+--------------+--------------|
   @SLU          @Rhody       La Salle       La Salle 
George Mason    Fordham        @Mason        @Duquesne
 Saint Joes      Dayton        @Rhody        @St. Joes
 @Fordham     @St. Bonnies      VCU           UMass 
                  @GW         @Dayton         @SLU
                La Salle                     Richmond
------------+-------------+--------------+--------------|
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Old 02-19-2014, 01:50 PM
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Win @ SJU & Richmond and we will move past them. Conference standings don't matter.

Team Record Top25 Top50
40 St. Joseph's (PA) .5931 17-7 2-4 2-5
49 Richmond .5868 17-9 1-3 2-6
61 Dayton .5742 17-8 1-2 3-5
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Old 02-19-2014, 01:58 PM
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Maybe Five

I think the A-10 may get 5 teams in the dance. IMHO UD becomes one of the five if they beat either SJU or SLU. and wins all of their remaining home games starting with La Salle tonight. They must also beat the Dukes in the Burgh. Either a win over SJU or SLU would create a "signature" win in conference play for the Flyers. If they miss there remains an opportunity in the A-10 conference tournament. So in the words of the late Al Davis in Oakland "Just win, baby!"
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:00 PM
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That doesn't mean they cannot be picked also, just because they lose to UD. Conference standings might not matter all by its self, but that depends on what else happens. I know they technically pick "teams" not conferences, and I think having seven A-10 teams under consideration could be a problem for any three A10 bubble teams, but seven teams is not impossible...that's what I was saying begin with...seven might be possible.
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:08 PM
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Wink Explain that???

Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse View Post
I think the A-10 may get 5 teams in the dance. IMHO UD becomes one of the five if they beat either SJU or SLU. and wins all of their remaining home games starting with La Salle tonight. They must also beat the Dukes in the Burgh. Either a win over SJU or SLU would create a "signature" win in conference play for the Flyers. If they miss there remains an opportunity in the A-10 conference tournament. So in the words of the late Al Davis in Oakland "Just win, baby!"
So you only give UD a chance with five or more wins (in regular season), but you say A10 only maybe gets in five teams??? Makes no sense given that Richmond is one of our opponents (either we pick-up a win or they do), and so even if we beat Saint Joes, you think their profile falls that far down? At this point, Joes, Richmond, and Dayton would all have to take a complete dive for less than five bids; and so then Five bids is basically the minimum. I would be shocked at this point if was less than five. Shocked!
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
So you only give UD a chance with five or more wins (in regular season), but you say A10 only maybe gets in five teams??? Makes no sense given that Richmond is one of our opponents (either we pick-up a win or they do), and so even if we beat Saint Joes, you think their profile falls that far down? At this point, Joes, Richmond, and Dayton would all have to take a complete dive for less than five bids; and so then Five bids is basically the minimum. I would be shocked at this point if was less than five. Shocked!
Don't punch UMass's ticket to the NCAA tourney yet. In addition to at UD, they have home and away games vs. VCU. They lose all 3 of those and finish 9-7 in conference and then a first round loss in Brooklyn, that may be a ticket to the NIT.
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:18 PM
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Albertto,

Would you not count UMass as a high profile or signature win? I know it's at home, but we already have enough neutral/away road wins. So wouldn't UMass fill the signature win category?
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:26 PM
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Lightbulb Oops...

Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Don't punch UMass's ticket to the NCAA tourney yet. In addition to at UD, they have home and away games vs. VCU. They lose all 3 of those and finish 9-7 in conference and then a first round loss in Brooklyn, that may be a ticket to the NIT.
Oops...Not So Much! UMass plays VCU once at UMass. Then they are home against Rhody, at Dayton, at Duquesne, and back home for finale against SLU. I have punched the UMass ticket, they dance without question. Again, A10 less than five bids...shocked, shocked, shocked!
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Old 02-19-2014, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Oops...Not So Much! UMass plays VCU once at UMass. Then they are home against Rhody, at Dayton, at Duquesne, and back home for finale against SLU. I have punched the UMass ticket, they dance without question. Again, A10 less than five bids...shocked, shocked, shocked!
My screw up. The last game UMass plays is SLU not Vcu. You are probably right but if they lose 3 more games and lose their first game in Brooklyn, they will be sweating it out come a selection Sunday.
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Old 02-19-2014, 03:09 PM
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Yes, well okay, but it's hard to lose ground when you are playing VCU and SLU, both are too high in RPI. UMass would have to lose to both VCU, SLU, and someone else, and then drop game one of A10 tourney. That's a lot of losing for a team with 20 wins. Even then, they still get a good strong look.
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Old 02-19-2014, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Yes, well okay, but it's hard to lose ground when you are playing VCU and SLU, both are too high in RPI. UMass would have to lose to both VCU, SLU, and someone else, and then drop game one of A10 tourney. That's a lot of losing for a team with 20 wins. Even then, they still get a good strong look.
We are hoping that someone else is the Flyers.
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Old 02-19-2014, 03:24 PM
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Road Win

Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Albertto,

Would you not count UMass as a high profile or signature win? I know it's at home, but we already have enough neutral/away road wins. So wouldn't UMass fill the signature win category?
The only home wins played at home that I would consider signature this year would have been SLU or VCU. UMASS is almost a signature win as was SBU.
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Old 02-19-2014, 04:23 PM
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So, I understand the concensus is that three teams SLU, VCU and Umass will be locks and can afford to lose in the 1st round of the a10 tournament. Everyone else on the bubble will need to win at least one game if not more. That could make for a very intense tournament
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Old 02-19-2014, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
So, I understand the concensus is that three teams SLU, VCU and Umass will be locks and can afford to lose in the 1st round of the a10 tournament. Everyone else on the bubble will need to win at least one game if not more. That could make for a very intense tournament
Similar story in the Big East, where 2 teams are locks and #3 thru 7 may all finish within 2 games of .500 in conf play. I hate to say it but fully expect the selection committee to place another NBE team in the tourney at the expense of an A10 bubble team.
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Old 02-19-2014, 05:27 PM
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I would have to pretty much say GW is a lock right now as well. But they seem poised to win at-least one or two more conference games, and they already have 8 wins in conference, as they only have four games left...two of which are very winnable, and one other is against SLU, so GW is a virtual fourth lock for A10.
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Old 02-20-2014, 10:01 AM
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max will be 5, i just think the NCAA would have a hard time swallowing 6 teams from a NON BCS conference.....hope im wrong.


one game at a time
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Old 02-20-2014, 10:12 AM
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The A-10 has had 6 before. It was a while ago, obviousl several different NCAA committees ago, but there is precedent for it. I think eventually 5 teams will shake themselves free and intot he dance. 6 or even 7 is possible, but at some point some of these teams are going to beat other teams as the A-10 has set up the closing stretch in a way that there is a lot of games b/w teams at the top of the A10
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Old 02-20-2014, 10:29 AM
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Lightbulb More Conferences at top

Originally Posted by Odrab14 View Post
max will be 5, i just think the NCAA would have a hard time swallowing 6 teams from a NON BCS conference.....hope im wrong.


one game at a time
Your perspective of NCAA committee is fair enough to be sure; but you might consider that with the Big East split, and previously the Mountain West split, and the creation of the American Athletic (Cincy, U of L, UConn, Memphis), the atmosphere is much different now, and so with the A10 performing so well this year, you have a number of conferences that don't make-up the traditional power six, who are playing upper level NCAA caliber basketball. I think that combined with the social and political evolution of the NCAA membership and administrators, the door might be a little more open now for the A10 to get six or seven teams in-to the dance. If you think about, with the departure of Xavier, Butler, Temple, and Charlotte, it really is something that the A10 is in this position.

Understanding your suspicion of the NCAA Committee, I think the A10 will get six or more
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Old 02-20-2014, 10:58 AM
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I expect 5. Numbers 6 and 7 will be on the bubble, but they'll most likely have lost to #5 and the A10 won't get the benefit of the doubt.
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Old 02-20-2014, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
The A-10 has had 6 before. It was a while ago, obviousl several different NCAA committees ago, but there is precedent for it. I think eventually 5 teams will shake themselves free and into the dance. 6 or even 7 is possible, but at some point some of these teams are going to beat other teams as the A-10 has set up the closing stretch in a way that there is a lot of games b/w teams at the top of the A10
I don't believe the A-10 has ever had 6. In 96-97 there were 5, and in 97-98 there were 5. And those were the days when GW, UMass and Temple were "powers." I think 5 was the max. I think we should get 5 this year. We have seven in contention (including UD), and will probably get 5.
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Old 02-20-2014, 01:40 PM
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You might be correct, for some reason I was thinking 6, but we're in the same time frame of when the peak occured.
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Old 02-20-2014, 02:19 PM
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OOC Winning % and NCAA Bids

OK, I stole this data with pride after searching some archives. A poster on the A-10 MB named WH used to keep track of this, but it looks like this year someone else did and they didn't post the old data. But, the internet found it for me. The percentages are all from his posts (except 2014, which is from an active thread over there) and I didn't verify any data. There is precedent for at least 5 bids this year given the fact that since 2000, this year's Out of Conference (OOC) Winning Percentage is the highest, by a good margin. To be honest, I didn't think the A10 would get 5 bids last year and was surprised when it happened.

Code:
                            
  OOC   |
Winning |
   %    |         Year      |   Bids  | 
--------+-------------------+---------|
  .702     2014 Atlantic 10   X bids
  .654     2013 Atlantic 10   5 bids
  .643     2008 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .643     2008 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .624     2012 Atlantic 10   4 bids
  .624     2010 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .593     2009 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .587     2004 Atlantic 10   4 bids
  .587     2011 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .559     2000 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .556     2001 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .555     2006 Atlantic 10   2 bids
  .541     2007 Atlantic 10   2 bids
  .536     2003 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .522     2002 Atlantic 10   1 bid
  .406     2005 Atlantic 10   1 bid
--------+-------------------+---------|

Notes:
   5 bids is most in conference history
   Also received 5 bids in 1997 and 1998
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Old 02-20-2014, 03:41 PM
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Well, I hope all of the optimists are correct about the A-10 getting five or six bids, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Conference only got three or four. That is not to say the A-10 would be undeserving of five bids or so, it's just that I've seen the BCS bias hold sway too many times before. Unless a major upset occurs and either SLU or VCU goes out in the first round of the A-10 Tourney, any other team getting a one-and-done in the A-10 will probably get relegated to the N.I.T.
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Old 02-20-2014, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71 View Post
Well, I hope all of the optimists are correct about the A-10 getting five or six bids, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Conference only got three or four. That is not to say the A-10 would be undeserving of five bids or so, it's just that I've seen the BCS bias hold sway too many times before. Unless a major upset occurs and either SLU or VCU goes out in the first round of the A-10 Tourney, any other team getting a one-and-done in the A-10 will probably get relegated to the N.I.T.
Given the current bodies of work of the respective A10 teams, compared to other bubble contenders, 3 bids is just downright silly and uninformed. Sorry. If they got three, you would be the only person in America that wasn't shocked.
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Old 02-20-2014, 04:36 PM
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Well, SLU, I've been shocked before, but after awhile you sort of expect to get screwed. The only way to be "shocked", to borrow your descriptive, would be to be "uninformed". To paraphrase an old saying, those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it. As I said, I think the A-10 would be deserving, but...
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Old 02-20-2014, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by SC_Flyer View Post
OK, I stole this data with pride after searching some archives. A poster on the A-10 MB named WH used to keep track of this, but it looks like this year someone else did and they didn't post the old data. But, the internet found it for me. The percentages are all from his posts (except 2014, which is from an active thread over there) and I didn't verify any data. There is precedent for at least 5 bids this year given the fact that since 2000, this year's Out of Conference (OOC) Winning Percentage is the highest, by a good margin. To be honest, I didn't think the A10 would get 5 bids last year and was surprised when it happened.

Code:
                            
  OOC   |
Winning |
   %    |         Year      |   Bids  | 
--------+-------------------+---------|
  .702     2014 Atlantic 10   X bids
  .654     2013 Atlantic 10   5 bids
  .643     2008 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .643     2008 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .624     2012 Atlantic 10   4 bids
  .624     2010 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .593     2009 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .587     2004 Atlantic 10   4 bids
  .587     2011 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .559     2000 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .556     2001 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .555     2006 Atlantic 10   2 bids
  .541     2007 Atlantic 10   2 bids
  .536     2003 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .522     2002 Atlantic 10   1 bid
  .406     2005 Atlantic 10   1 bid
--------+-------------------+---------|

Notes:
   5 bids is most in conference history
   Also received 5 bids in 1997 and 1998
Remember, a few of those years a team that would have not gotten an auto bid won the tourney to get in.
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Old 02-20-2014, 07:19 PM
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I know what you mean NorthWestFlyer, but that is what an "auto bid" is. You kind of got your terminology backwards. But I know what you mean.

As for Bat'71, well of course if UMass, GW, Saint Joes, Richmond, and UD, all drop-off the proverbial face of the earth and lose practically every game they have left, then sure, it might be possible in theory for the A10 to only get three bids to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament; but then only in theory, not in reality, because that practically cannot happened due to enough games between each other, as well as, the reality that the above listed teams will not drop every game to the bottom feeders between now and selection Sunday....not a chance. If the A10 only gets three bids to the A10 tourney, I will buy you dinner at whatever dinning establishment you desire. Is it a bet?
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Old 02-20-2014, 07:39 PM
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I agree with five bids. Since most of the A 10 bubble teams still have to play each other, naturally some teams will knock others out. I think three (3) of the following teams will get in: GW, UMASS, SJU, Richmond, Dayton.
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Old 02-20-2014, 07:51 PM
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4 is the absolute minimum. I too think GW is essentially a lock.
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Old 02-20-2014, 07:55 PM
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GW would have to tank really hard to miss it - but losing either of their easy ones could be bad news if they don't win anything else. They could easily lose SJU and SLU, but both would probably be forgiven. If they lose another one plus lose their first game in the tournament (especially if they aren't a top 4 seed) then they're out.
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Old 02-20-2014, 08:03 PM
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In reading NYC sports pages, the Big East figures it will get 5 maybe 6 binds. While I hope I am wrong, for basketball political reasons, I can't see the A10 getting the same or more than the BE unless one of GW, UMASS, SJU, Richmond or Dayton jumps up and wins the A10 tournament. My guess is 4 - SLU, VCU and whomever finishes season hot and goes deep into tournament. I have watched a number of BE and A10 games and, except for UD's ups and downs, it has been a fun, interesting college bball year.
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Old 02-20-2014, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
In reading NYC sports pages, the Big East figures it will get 5 maybe 6 binds. While I hope I am wrong, for basketball political reasons, I can't see the A10 getting the same or more than the BE unless one of GW, UMASS, SJU, Richmond or Dayton jumps up and wins the A10 tournament. My guess is 4 - SLU, VCU and whomever finishes season hot and goes deep into tournament. I have watched a number of BE and A10 games and, except for UD's ups and downs, it has been a fun, interesting college bball year.
Big East getting 5 or 6? They must be on drugs. Who is getting in?

Creighton and Villanova are locks. X just over bubble. After that? St. John's is next in line. They have a great win vs Creighton at home but best wins after that are over other mediocre Big East teams. Marquette is 7-6 in conference and 15-11 overall. Providence 7-7, 17-10; Georgetown 6-7, 15-10 (6-8, 15-11 after Seton Hall finishes them off tonight). 4 bids at most and it may take someone other than Creighton, Villanova or X to win their tourney.
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  #34  
Old 02-21-2014, 10:54 AM
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Beatty-Town, I believe I said "three or four" in response to those thinking the Conference could get "five or six". So with that in mind, if the A-10 gets over the hump and gets more than four bids, I'll treat you to whatever you want at Tanks or Kramer's the next time I'm in Dayton (I try to get out there at least once a year, so I will be there); on the other hand, if the A-10 only gets three, you buy and if it's a four-bid league, we'll call it a push, but I'll buy you a few beers anyway if UD's one of them. How's that sound?
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Old 02-21-2014, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71 View Post
Beatty-Town, I believe I said "three or four" in response to those thinking the Conference could get "five or six". So with that in mind, if the A-10 gets over the hump and gets more than four bids, I'll treat you to whatever you want at Tanks or Kramer's the next time I'm in Dayton (I try to get out there at least once a year, so I will be there); on the other hand, if the A-10 only gets three, you buy and if it's a four-bid league, we'll call it a push, but I'll buy you a few beers anyway if UD's one of them. How's that sound?
Beatytown - I think that is a no lose bet. I think 4 is where it ends up but really don't see how it would fall to 3. Still good chance at 5.
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Old 02-21-2014, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71 View Post
Beatty-Town, I believe I said "three or four" in response to those thinking the Conference could get "five or six". So with that in mind, if the A-10 gets over the hump and gets more than four bids, I'll treat you to whatever you want at Tanks or Kramer's the next time I'm in Dayton (I try to get out there at least once a year, so I will be there); on the other hand, if the A-10 only gets three, you buy and if it's a four-bid league, we'll call it a push, but I'll buy you a few beers anyway if UD's one of them. How's that sound?
I would love to join you guys for a few brews if it comes to pass. PM me if you want to make it a larger udpride meet-and-greet.
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Old 02-21-2014, 02:44 PM
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Sounds Grand...Go Flyers and Go A10...time to start dancing...Alfred James McGuire Style. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTvVo8uOCk0

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Old 02-21-2014, 02:58 PM
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UDEE79 that's fine with me and, frankly, I hope the A-10 gets as many bids as it deserves and that we're one of them. Heck, if we get an invite, I'll try to get out to campus for the opening rounds to view our games* in Flyer Country.

*I'd expect to win more than one.
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Old 02-22-2014, 09:51 AM
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Not to say the A-10 can't get more than three or four bids, but it looks like some pundits are lowering bid expectations for the Conference. From Glen's "Bubble Watch" Thread: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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Old 02-22-2014, 11:24 AM
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The U-Mass win over VCU should move the Minutemen into the 'lock' category next week.

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Old 02-22-2014, 11:26 AM
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That Southen Cal home loss is our albatross. Without an impressive run through the A10 tournament, it will be the deciding factor.
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Old 02-22-2014, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71 View Post
Not to say the A-10 can't get more than three or four bids, but it looks like some pundits are lowering bid expectations for the Conference. From Glen's "Bubble Watch" Thread: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
I guess we're reading that differently. I don't see how it lowers expectations from what we have been talking about. To me it says we have four pretty solid teams with three other teams with some work to do. I would think at least one of those three has a pretty good chance of getting in with a couple good wins.

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Old 02-22-2014, 11:48 AM
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If st joes finishes 2nd in the A10, I think they are in.
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Old 02-22-2014, 01:13 PM
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I can easily see it being six bids. You don't know how it's going to play out over the next few weeks, but I think there is a much better chance of it being as many as six than it is being as few as four.
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Old 02-22-2014, 01:25 PM
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Assuming we win @Duq

Split following four with two wins in Brooklyn we are in
take 3 of 4 with one win in Brooklyn we are in
take 1 of 4/lose all 4, gotta win whole thing

Period.

Lot of discussion about nothing.
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Old 02-22-2014, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Assuming we win @Duq

Split following four with two wins in Brooklyn we are in
take 3 of 4 with one win in Brooklyn we are in
take 1 of 4/lose all 4, gotta win whole thing

Period.

Lot of discussion about nothing.
Actually, the title of the thread is "A-10 Total Bids," so I don't think the discussion is about nothing.
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Old 03-06-2014, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Sounds Grand...Go Flyers and Go A10...time to start dancing...Alfred James McGuire Style. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTvVo8uOCk0

Oh I see UDEE79, now you want to act like you know me. But yes, I have no problem with the meet-greet, but I shall have to put on my clown uniform for Thirt.
Gosh Beatty didn't that weekend in Arlantic City mean anything?
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Old 03-07-2014, 01:41 AM
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I think we will get 6 bids and develop a huge long term rivalry with Richmond SJU and Saint Bonnie! times are changing but the future is still bright! UD and GE partnership is about to put us an international map! Composite aerospace is the future!
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Old 03-07-2014, 01:50 AM
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Gem City View Post
is it time to lock up Archie? 2 mill?
I'm sure Archie and his wife would say 'yes'.

But do you really think a 6th place finish is worth $2m? I bet Wabler doesn't either.
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I'm sure Archie and his wife would say 'yes'.

But do you really think a 6th place finish is worth $2m? I bet Wabler doesn't either.
Agree. We made that mistake with BG. How did that work out?
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:52 AM
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I would lock up Archie, but I would continue to work to elevate the program around him.
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Old 03-07-2014, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Agree. We made that mistake with BG. How did that work out?
Agree, no to $2 mil, yes to a raise and an extension if he gets the team to the dance.
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I'm sure Archie and his wife would say 'yes'.

But do you really think a 6th place finish is worth $2m? I bet Wabler doesn't either.
All 6th place finishes are not created equal. We will really be in a 3 way tie for 3rd in a Conference that is tougher than it has ever been. You are an engineer Rollo you shouldn't have to be told things like that.

I do agree with you that an extension for $2M/yr is premature.
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:53 PM
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Is the general consensus now that the A-10 will likely get 6 bids this year?

I am now in that court based on the RPIs of the 6 teams in discussion, but was wondering if everyone else is on board.

I am also trying to get this thread back on track instead of turning into a discussion about our coach and his compensation.
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:57 PM
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I think the consensus is that if the tournament started tomorrow, the A10 would get 6 bids. If UD, GW & SJU all hold serve over the weekend (all have games they will be favored in) the A10 will probably be a 95% lock for 6 bids. The only uncertainty at that point is UD lossing their 1st game of the A10 to someone like Duquesne.
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Old 03-07-2014, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by SC_Flyer View Post
Is the general consensus now that the A-10 will likely get 6 bids this year?

I am now in that court based on the RPIs of the 6 teams in discussion, but was wondering if everyone else is on board.

I am also trying to get this thread back on track instead of turning into a discussion about our coach and his compensation.
The short answer is I think the A10 gets in 6- SLU, VCU, Joes, UMass, GW and UD. A 7th is possible if 1 of those 6 doesn't win the A10 tourney.

I also think getting a Thursday by in Brooklyn makes you a lock. I believe only UMass, GW and UD are not guaranteed a bye. I think UMass is already a lock.

That leaves it to whether if GW and UD lost this weekend and again on Thursday in Brooklyn, would they still be in.

First, I really don't see GW losing to Fordham tomorrow. But if they did, they better win on Thursday.

The Flyers probably have to win at least beat Richmond or win on Thursday but probably both to be sure.

The thing about the A10 is that none of the teams up in the air will meet this weekend or on Thursday in Brooklyn. They won't knock each other out.

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Old 03-07-2014, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Gem City View Post
is it time to lock up Archie? 2 mill?
Sorry for another off-topic post.

But, can UD even afford to pay AM, or any other coach for that matter, $2 mil/year?

Theoretically, if Izzo wanted to come be the coach at UD, could UD even afford him?
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:26 PM
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Dance Card has at #33 after last night. The only bad part about that is we'd be a 9-seed.

And X was still at #40, even after their Villanova loss.
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Dance Card has at #33 after last night. The only bad part about that is we'd be a 9-seed.

And X was still at #40, even after their Villanova loss.
Please Lord don't make us an 8 or a 9 seed!!!
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Sorry for another off-topic post.

But, can UD even afford to pay AM, or any other coach for that matter, $2 mil/year?

Theoretically, if Izzo wanted to come be the coach at UD, could UD even afford him?
Brad Stevens type of success and we can start talking those numbers, until then.........

On a side not, I do not see us comfortably in the tournament unless we beat Richmond and win at least one, possibly two games in Brooklyn. If we take care of business at home and win two in Brooklyn, I don't see how we can possibly be left out. I for one see us pulling a Major League and winning the whole darn thing in the A10, but I've had a few too many Miller High Lifes.

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Old 03-07-2014, 09:48 PM
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Hypothetically I think that we could swing it if we wanted to. UD basketball generates over $11M. That money is used to pay for all of the other sports as far as I know. I think that is a luxury few schools have. How much does Arch earn now? $800k? it would be another $1.2M.
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Old 03-07-2014, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by EmmetStFlyerFan View Post
Please Lord don't make us an 8 or a 9 seed!!!
People really want a Sweet 16 that badly? I'd welcome an 8 or 9 seed. Best chance to get out of the first round. Much better than First-4 where it's nearly 50-50 that you don't even make the round of 64.
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Old 03-07-2014, 11:44 PM
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Originally Posted by EmmetStFlyerFan View Post

On a side not, I do not see us comfortably in the tournament unless we beat Richmond and win at least one, possibly two games in Brooklyn. If we take care of business at home and win two in Brooklyn, I don't see how we can possibly be left out. I for one see us pulling a Major League and winning the whole darn thing in the A10, but I've had a few too many Miller High Lifes.
Yes, I have to be honest here, there seems to be a lot of noise/debate/discussion regarding the a10 getting 6 bids, and that noise is making me nervous. I would feel better getting to 24 wins.
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Old 03-08-2014, 08:24 AM
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We have to win tonight. If we win, imo, we are definitely in. However, with the craziness in conference tournaments, we aren't exactly safe. Win tonight and win 1 in Brooklyn, there's no way they can keep us out.
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Old 03-08-2014, 08:33 AM
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Win next two and we will be between an 8-10 seed.
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Old 03-08-2014, 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Win tonight and win 1 in Brooklyn, there's no way they can keep us out.
This.
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Old 03-08-2014, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
Hypothetically I think that we could swing it if we wanted to. UD basketball generates over $11M. That money is used to pay for all of the other sports as far as I know. I think that is a luxury few schools have. How much does Arch earn now? $800k? it would be another $1.2M.
I believe the overall athletic budget is in the 20mil range, Men's basketball does pay for a large portion of the overall budget. Finding another 1 mil per year for a top notch coach( maybe we already have one) would not be a big problem.
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Old 03-08-2014, 11:21 AM
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I don't know, on the one hand, I wouldn't go crazy with the amount of a raise or the length of an extension, I want to see how the next couple of years go, so maybe they can wait a year or two before talking about a raise and extension if things go well.

On the other hand, I do want AM to feel appreciated if they make the dance, and I do worry about other schools starting to sniff around in the next couple/few years. And UD did give BG an extension after his 2nd year, and I assume he also got a raise after his 2nd year, so I don't know if that precedent matters. Maybe just give AM a small raise and a 1 year extension.

In the event that AM gets into the dance, and then the team makes a run, then that changes the negotiations IMO.

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Old 03-08-2014, 03:00 PM
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If they make the NCAA there almost has to be an extension. In today's college hoops, you generally don't let a contract get down to 2 years remaining unless you are planning a change within the next year or you have a coach nearing retirement.

It doesn't have to be a hugely long extension, or at an exorbitant increase. Let that be earned by repeat performance. But you are going to need to add a couple years.
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Old 03-08-2014, 09:58 PM
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7 bids is possible. UMass, VCU, and St. Louis can all lose their first game and they are safely in no matter what. Dayton, SJU, and GW are all likely in just for being in the quarterfinals. If they're in the semifinals, they are definitely in. So assume those 3 advance to the semifinals along with one other team... who eventually wins the whole thing (e.g. Richmond). All 7 would dance. Outside that scenario, 6 are probably in.
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Old 03-08-2014, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
7 bids is possible. UMass, VCU, and St. Louis can all lose their first game and they are safely in no matter what. Dayton, SJU, and GW are all likely in just for being in the quarterfinals. If they're in the semifinals, they are definitely in. So assume those 3 advance to the semifinals along with one other team... who eventually wins the whole thing (e.g. Richmond). All 7 would dance. Outside that scenario, 6 are probably in.
To make the quarterfinals we need one win, SJU and GW both have byes, we do not.
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Old 03-08-2014, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
To make the quarterfinals we need one win, SJU and GW both have byes, we do not.
Correct. I don't think we're a lock yet. If we lose the first round, we're back on the bubble. We'd have a strong case, but it seems like whenever we are a 'maybe' it turns out to be a 'no'. One win should do it, though.
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Old 03-08-2014, 11:19 PM
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Brooklyn is the new Maui
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Old 03-09-2014, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Brooklyn is the new Maui
Can Chris change the one of the buttons on the bottom of posts to "Mahalo"?
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:29 AM
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The more I think about it, I think UD is already in safely regardless of what happens in the A10 tournament. I think that even if UD loses in the first round of the A10 tournament, then UD is in.

And I don't think the First Four is even in play at this point. Even if UD loses their first A10 tournament game, then I think that UD will be seeded better than the First Four.

UD's rpi is 39 right now, that is good enough IMO to be in and to be seeded better than the First Four.

But, just to take out all the drama, and just to be safe, I think it is a good idea to win 2 in Brooklyn.

The only way that I think that UD doesn't get in is if the committee makes an issue of there being 6 or more A10 teams getting in.

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Old 03-10-2014, 09:47 AM
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I don't think the committee really holds poor conference tournament performances against teams. If you were in before your conference tournament started, then I think you are still in when your conference tournament is over, regardless of how you did in your conference tournament.

And with a rpi of 39, I think UD is in at this point before the A10 tournament starts.

But, I do think how you do in your conference tournament could impact your seeding.

Last edited by ud2; 03-10-2014 at 09:52 AM..
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  #78  
Old 03-10-2014, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I don't think the committee really holds poor conference tournament performances against teams. If you were in before your conference tournament started, then I think you are still in when your conference tournament is over, regardless of how you did in your conference tournament.
They may not hold it against you, but what if other teams perform well in their conference tournaments and move up? That is always going to happen so even if you were standing still, you would be getting passed.

I am really afraid that the individual committee members are going to look at the SJ-UD game as a play in game, even though there is no criteria to take into account conference affiliation. According to bracketmatrix.com, both should be safely in (meaning they could lose their first game in the conference tournament and still get a bid) but UD is just ahead of the last four in, so I think they would fall to the First Four. I am rooting for teams just ahead of and behind (X as of today) UD to lose in the first round of their conference tournaments so that both UD and SJ get in regardless of Friday.
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Old 03-10-2014, 03:15 PM
CE80 CE80 is offline
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Interesting to see how things play out in SEC. Tenn (RPI 44) and Ark (RPI 62). Both are in Lunardi's last four in. Dance Card has them both below the bubble line.

In SEC tourney, 5 seed Ark plays winner of Aub/SCar. Winner of that game plays 4 seed Tenn. They played once in regular season Tenn won at home.

Is this potential 4/5 conference tourney game a play-in game?

Last edited by CE80; 03-10-2014 at 03:18 PM..
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  #80  
Old 03-10-2014, 03:46 PM
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The A-10 will gt 6 bids and none of them will be in the PIG.
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  #81  
Old 03-10-2014, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by KYFlyer View Post
They may not hold it against you, but what if other teams perform well in their conference tournaments and move up? That is always going to happen so even if you were standing still, you would be getting passed.

I am really afraid that the individual committee members are going to look at the SJ-UD game as a play in game, even though there is no criteria to take into account conference affiliation. According to bracketmatrix.com, both should be safely in (meaning they could lose their first game in the conference tournament and still get a bid) but UD is just ahead of the last four in, so I think they would fall to the First Four. I am rooting for teams just ahead of and behind (X as of today) UD to lose in the first round of their conference tournaments so that both UD and SJ get in regardless of Friday.
The cutoff line is inexact IMO, but I think if you are already comfortably in, which I think UD is, then you can't play your way out of the dance as a result of your play in your conference tournament.

Other teams can play their way into the dance through their play in their conference tournaments though, and I think those teams also could pass by UD, in terms of seeding, if they play well in their conference tournaments.

This is just my opinion based upon what has seemed to happen in past years.

Last edited by ud2; 03-10-2014 at 05:22 PM..
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  #82  
Old 03-16-2014, 10:24 PM
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Well Beatty Town ya got me. I'll be in town the week of July 7th, so pick your poison, Tanks or Kramer's, for food and brews and I'll be happy to buy; UDEE79, you're more than welcome to join us. As a matter of fact, it'd be nice to see anyone from this board that might be in town that week. Now, let's go kick some Buckeye butt.
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  #83  
Old 03-17-2014, 01:00 AM
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That sounds awesome, very kind of you. I am just so happy about the A10 getting the six teams in the Dance, and especially in-light of the departure of Xavier, Butler, Temple, and Charlotte. Finally the A10 is getting the positive intention it has deserved for many years. And, Coach K is playing right into it. Thank you coach K for inserting you Duke foot in your mouth.

And, GO FLYERS BEAT BUCKEYES...GO UD!
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  #84  
Old 03-17-2014, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
That sounds awesome, very kind of you. I am just so happy about the A10 getting the six teams in the Dance, and especially in-light of the departure of Xavier, Butler, Temple, and Charlotte. Finally the A10 is getting the positive intention it has deserved for many years. And, Coach K is playing right into it. Thank you coach K for inserting you Duke foot in your mouth.

And, GO FLYERS BEAT BUCKEYES...GO UD!

Agreed....I was very very skeptical about the committee putting 6 A-10 teams in. I thought they would max it at 5. So glad they looked past the conference name and looked at the quality of work from these 6 teams. The fact is all 6 earned their way into the dance and all 6 deserved to have their names called.
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Old 03-17-2014, 10:10 AM
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They all did and do deserve it. Congrats to each A10 School. Also, given that UD is an 11 seed and not playing in First Four, I think you might make an argument that had Saint Bonnies won the A10 Tourney, apparently UD still had a reasonable chance with this committee to make the at-large field. I think NC State would have gotten the bounce...to Coach K's dismay I am sure of.

Likewise, I believe that if Richmond doesn't lose Cedrick Lindsay, Richmond would certainly have helped the A10 make an interesting challenge for seven A10 teams to make the field. Remember, three weeks back, Richmond was still in many prediction brackets, and they were ahead of UD in the standings. Just imagine Coach K's frustration if 7 A10 teams were dancing??

Go Atlantic Ten!
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Old 03-17-2014, 10:21 AM
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Updated with record 6 bids

I wanted to update the table for historical purposes.

Code:
                            
  OOC   |
Winning |
   %    |        Year       |  Bids   | 
--------+-------------------+---------|
  .702     2014 Atlantic 10   6 bids
  .654     2013 Atlantic 10   5 bids
  .643     2008 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .643     2008 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .624     2012 Atlantic 10   4 bids
  .624     2010 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .593     2009 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .587     2004 Atlantic 10   4 bids
  .587     2011 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .559     2000 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .556     2001 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .555     2006 Atlantic 10   2 bids
  .541     2007 Atlantic 10   2 bids
  .536     2003 Atlantic 10   3 bids
  .522     2002 Atlantic 10   1 bid
  .406     2005 Atlantic 10   1 bid
--------+-------------------+---------|

Notes:
   5 bids was previously the most in conference history
   Also received 5 bids in 1997 and 1998
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  #87  
Old 03-17-2014, 10:28 AM
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Marquette

Love that our friends to the north got shut out of the NIT.
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  #88  
Old 03-17-2014, 10:49 AM
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I hate to gloat, but darned it is enjoyable seeing the Flyers' name on the board and Marquette staying at home and X having to beat NC State to get in the field of 64.
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  #89  
Old 03-17-2014, 11:01 AM
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Why TommyGola you make seem as if X is not in the NCAA Tourney yet? Oh, that's right, those playin games aren't really seen in that way. Oh well.........you know that must really stick in X's crawl to have to play at UD Arena while UC is 5 seed and UD plays The OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY in the "real" bracket. Man I bet they hate that. Isn't life grand!
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