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  #1  
Old 01-26-2017, 04:57 PM
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VCU Game - How critical is it for our resume?

As Rhode Island falls out of the top 50 RPI, we are sitting at exactly zero top 50 wins.

I think winning at VCU will be extremely difficult and unlikely, but maybe our last chance for a top 50 win during the regular season.
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Old 01-26-2017, 05:07 PM
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Not to split hairs but it may not be critical but it is very, very important. I think we can lose at VCU but if we beat them at home as well win our remaining home games (including VCU) and lose no more than 1 other road game (and it can't be SLU) we will be okay for an at large.

I think the game is critical for VCU and they are treating it that way.
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Old 01-26-2017, 05:10 PM
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We don't have to have it to build a legit tourney resume.......but it drastically changes the margin for error and continued seeding leverage.

Win at VCU and we have a real stronghold on the A10 reg season.
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  #4  
Old 01-26-2017, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
We don't have to have it to build a legit tourney resume.......but it drastically changes the margin for error and continued seeding leverage.

Win at VCU and we have a real stronghold on the A10 reg season.
Correct. This is much more important for VCU than for us. They should win this game in their gym. Let's hope our team shows up with a quick start.
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  #5  
Old 01-26-2017, 05:53 PM
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A loss puts more pressure on us with a home game against them and away at URI and the always looming upset by another team or two.
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Old 01-26-2017, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
A loss puts more pressure on us with a home game against them and away at URI and the always looming upset by another team or two.
Luckily we don't go to LaSalle in late Feb/early March this year.
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  #7  
Old 01-26-2017, 06:33 PM
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Flyers will win at VCU and URI.
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  #8  
Old 01-26-2017, 07:05 PM
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With no marquee wins out of conference, the only way to get into NCAA tourney without auto-bid is to go 15-3 in conference play. 14-4 won't do it. So almost every game from here on out is critical. Can this one be loss number 2? Yes.
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  #9  
Old 01-26-2017, 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Gilchrist's Autograph 2 View Post
With no marquee wins out of conference, the only way to get into NCAA tourney without auto-bid is to go 15-3 in conference play. 14-4 won't do it. So almost every game from here on out is critical. Can this one be loss number 2? Yes.
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14-4 and definitely in. RPI would be about 28-30 with SOS of about 70; 2-3 top 50 and 9-4 top 100. Probably no bad losses. Computers would have Dayton about 34-36.
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  #10  
Old 01-27-2017, 01:50 AM
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I feel this game is very important in establishing whether the Flyers are the superior team in the A10. Because if we truly are, we need to beat VCU twice. Because of the fact we have no top 50 wins this season, this is really what we need to do to force some breathing room. Having 4 seniors starting and the talent we know we have, this team needs to show it tonight. And again at home when we play them again. Yes we can afford a loss or two to others but there's no excuse for losing to the team that's blatantly obvious your main competition for #1 if you are truly the superior team, home or away in our situation. No let downs, no suprises and jump out quickly to take the fans and the refs out of the game.

Had we pulled out the St. Mary's, Nebraska or Northwestern games, we would have some breathing room. We didn't so this team needs to go into these kind of games like there's no tomorrow.

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  #11  
Old 01-27-2017, 07:15 AM
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Anyway to get to 14-4 and at least get a share of the conference title. That's the formula. Now you can't have a loss to say SLU involved in there but 14-4 with losses at UMass, VCU, Rhody, and Davidson and we will be fine for a 8-10 seed. If Dayton wins tonight I honestly think the regular season A10 title race is over.
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Old 01-27-2017, 07:21 AM
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Just win....
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Old 01-27-2017, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
Just win....
Baby.
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:12 AM
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This team needs this game, or at the very least play a GREAT game down to the wire, as much for establishing or, rather, re-establishing who they are, how good they are, and erasing self-doubt..It's not been easy for them the past year plus with injuries, issues on/off the court, Big Steve's passing, etc. so a win tonight would take this team to new heights both in the A10 and to a man/player..
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
14-4 and definitely in. RPI would be about 28-30 with SOS of about 70; 2-3 top 50 and 9-4 top 100. Probably no bad losses. Computers would have Dayton about 34-36.
The Bonnies would vehemently disagree with your statement.
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:30 AM
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Vcu - 73
ud - 66
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:38 AM
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Like others have said, this game is more important to VCU than UD. They already have 5 loses, already have 2 league losses, and they still have to visit UD and URI. They are also making this game like their Super Bowl. They have a blackout planned and students are camping out outside the arena. A loss here is not a bad loss, especially since we still get them at home.
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:47 AM
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Powder Keg?

http://www.richmond.com/sports/colle...1a8f6b90c.html
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:50 AM
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A good showing tonight is imperative... we are basically the prime college hoop game tonight, and it's on ESPN - assume most all commitee members will be watching, so we need to pass the eye test.
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:01 AM
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HUGE Game

Lunardi is part of the broadcast team tonite. So the road teams have taken a beating in CBB this week. late nite game...sold out crowd. Everything would point to a VCU win and by a comfortable margin, which would make Tues at Fordham really big. A win tonite separates us and I believe we would win the Conference outright. With Josh coming back. I also think we win in Pitt and get a 5 or 6 seed. So can we break the chalk and breakaway as the clear leader in the conference. I think we win tonite...Tough kids.
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
14-4 and definitely in. RPI would be about 28-30 with SOS of about 70; 2-3 top 50 and 9-4 top 100. Probably no bad losses. Computers would have Dayton about 34-36.
Think we would be in, but as a 10 or 11.
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
The Bonnies would vehemently disagree with your statement.
Agree, rpi 30, sos 81, 22-8 record, and they were out...is there any site that archives the top 25/50/100 win-loss records? Rpiforecast told me that they don't archive that data. Udpride rpi?

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Old 01-27-2017, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by flybye View Post
Lunardi is part of the broadcast team tonite. So the road teams have taken a beating in CBB this week. late nite game...sold out crowd. Everything would point to a VCU win and by a comfortable margin, which would make Tues at Fordham really big. A win tonite separates us and I believe we would win the Conference outright. With Josh coming back. I also think we win in Pitt and get a 5 or 6 seed. So can we break the chalk and breakaway as the clear leader in the conference. I think we win tonite...Tough kids.
We definitely CAN win tonight, based on how we can play and how VCU has played this year. But it's going to be a fight. I'm not expecting a win, but I am at least expecting a close game. This is the biggest test left on the regular season schedule imo, hope we are ready!
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:13 AM
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Just to make the field, I don't think a loss at VCU makes much difference, it won't be looked at as a bad loss no matter the margin at the end of the day (well save a Louisville, Pitt type margin I guess). However if they hope to get a seed up in the 6 or better range (I'm guessing 5 is probably their peak seed range if they win out, maybe a 4 but they'll be lacking the marquee wins that others will have, and the committee will have to value the absence of Cunningham and Pollard for the St Mary's and Nebraska games) its a huge game. It also provides UD with some insulation should they drop another game to someone similar to UMass.

That is the biggest problem with the A10, there are so many landmines sitting there, places that are not always easy to win at as their ratings would say. I don't care how talented you are, you are bound to have a handful of off nights during the course of the season. A win at VCU would go a long ways towards excusing a loss at UMass or Fordham or whatever other landmines they have laying down the road.

The potential return of Cunningham, how he looks if/when he returns and how much attention the committee pays to his return will play a large roll in UD's potential seed. They'll be fully aware that both of UD's losses to St Mary's and Nebraska came right after Josh got hurt and while Pollard was still sidelined. Though UD fell behind by a large margin, i'm guessing that will be mostly forgotten and the fact that they ended up tight losses will (without their 2 best post players) will still show up in their resume. Wichita St got excused for some of their early season losses when their post player and Van Fleet where injured. Their resume was lacking overall, but Van Fleet (and Baker) had a history in the NCAA and the committee clearly took that into account. Cunningham and UD for that matter don't have the same history, nor respect (nor do they deserve at this point compared to where WSU was last season) but they have just as much potential in my book.

I know somebody took my earlier post and compared it to Chris Wright, but that is very much apples/oranges. UD wasn't as well received nationally then and Wright had never played in any game until the 2nd round of the NIT, plus UD had a couple of true stinkers down the stretch and finished what, 8-8 in conference play. The A10 is better than many give it credit for, but no way should a team that finishes 8-8 in the A10 should be considered for an at large bid. UD dug themselves that hole this season and finished where they deserved.

Last edited by Medford; 01-27-2017 at 09:21 AM..
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:58 AM
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Kenpom gives games an "A" rating if it is against a Top 50 team on a neutral site. He then adjusts this for home or away.

The data shows that historically: Top 50 neutral = Top 20 home = Top 90 road.

We know the committee is starting to look at these advanced matric numbers more and more. UD is currently 1-2 in these "A" games (WvsAla, LvsSMC&NW) and only has 2 left on the schedule (@VCU and @URI).

Contrast this with the team just below UD in Kenpom, Wake Forest. WF has already played 7 "A" games (1-6) and has 6 "A games left.

Obviously playing all those "A" games does no good if you lose them all, but UD has limited opportunity to get any resume building wins. That means it's going to be tough for UD to move up the seed lines. Conversely, it will be very easy for UD to move down seed lines because of the number of potential bad losses remaining on the schedule.
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Old 01-27-2017, 09:59 AM
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For an At-Large bid I think this game is absolutely necessary.
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Old 01-27-2017, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post

I know somebody took my earlier post and compared it to Chris Wright, but that is very much apples/oranges. UD wasn't as well received nationally then and Wright had never played in any game until the 2nd round of the NIT, plus UD had a couple of true stinkers down the stretch and finished what, 8-8 in conference play. The A10 is better than many give it credit for, but no way should a team that finishes 8-8 in the A10 should be considered for an at large bid. UD dug themselves that hole this season and finished where they deserved.
I was comparing the UD/CW situation with the current Creighton situation. Since losing the PG, they have lost to Marquette @ home & Georgetown away (by 20). With a couple of landmines coming up (DePaul, Seton Hall), I was just wondering if a bad showing w/out the PG would be treated the same as UD w/out CW. I wasn't questioning UD's being out as much as wondering if the Creighton situation would be treated in a similar manner (and I don't belive their PG will be returning).
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Old 01-27-2017, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Baby.
Couldn't have said it better myself...

In fact....what he said:

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Old 01-27-2017, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by UDBaby View Post
Couldn't have said it better myself...

In fact....what he said:

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Old 01-27-2017, 11:17 AM
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I want to feel very good about our resume as it stands, but no top 50 wins could bite us. We've seen the committee favors certain things over others depending on the year. They haven't exactly been the model of consistency. That said, a win on VCU's floor will make me much more confident about our resume and as it's been alluded to on this thread it will give us room for a sub-standard loss...which we haven't been immune to.
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Agree, rpi 30, sos 81, 22-8 record, and they were out...is there any site that archives the top 25/50/100 win-loss records? Rpiforecast told me that they don't archive that data. Udpride rpi?
Pretty sure CBS Sports keeps all this. They have a Rankings link that shows the Polls and the RPI. If you go the expanded RPI rankings, they have the Nitty Gritty and breakdown for each team, plus all the past seasons for the last 10 or 15 years.
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:01 PM
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USA Today has a write up as it lists our game as the no.3 game this weekend. They don't mention Kyle as one of our senior leaders and probably don't know he is injured. They pick Dayton to win.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...62383a039567dd
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:14 PM
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This will be a tough ,physical game and Kyle Davis might be Dayton's most physical player. Can DD hold up to the pressure? Can Crosby? I hope so but have doubts. Think depth will come into play.
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by sabo2 View Post
This will be a tough ,physical game and Kyle Davis might be Dayton's most physical player. Can DD hold up to the pressure? Can Crosby? I hope so but have doubts. Think depth will come into play.
Did I miss something official? Is KD definitely out?
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by jerseyflyer09 View Post
Did I miss something official? Is KD definitely out?
Larry just posted a picture of him practicing on twitter.
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Like others have said, this game is more important to VCU than UD. They already have 5 loses, already have 2 league losses, and they still have to visit UD and URI. They are also making this game like their Super Bowl. They have a blackout planned and students are camping out outside the arena. A loss here is not a bad loss, especially since we still get them at home.

Um, yeah, but let's still try to win...
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Um, yeah, but let's still try to win...
Did I say we wouldn't?
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:40 PM
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FWIW, this site has us 97% favored, 85% ATS and 59% money line.

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/de...aspx?sport=nfl
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Old 01-27-2017, 01:15 PM
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The fact that the fans of the flagship basketball program in the A10 (until now of course) are camping out 2 days in advance for a game with the Flyers is pretty cool. Used to happen when distributing student tickets for ND games back in the day. Now we need to make it worth their effort
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Old 01-27-2017, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
The fact that the fans of the flagship basketball program in the A10 (until now of course) are camping out 2 days in advance for a game with the Flyers is pretty cool. Used to happen when distributing student tickets for ND games back in the day. Now we need to make it worth their effort
I'd rather win and make it NOT worth their effort.
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  #41  
Old 01-27-2017, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
The fact that the fans of the flagship basketball program in the A10 (until now of course) are camping out 2 days in advance for a game with the Flyers is pretty cool. Used to happen when distributing student tickets for ND games back in the day. Now we need to make it worth their effort
Their place is about half the size of UD, 7,000. Sort of like the Old Fieldhouse, when you had to camp out or get there very early. That kind of thing, as we know, pumps up the students. It will be very tough tonight.
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Old 01-27-2017, 02:08 PM
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Most of our fans see Dayton, I don’t know if they’re a rival, but it’s a huge, huge game. We’ve got the two biggest fan bases, probably the most passionate fan bases...

Quote above stood out to me, but then so did these:

VCU coach Will Wade couldn’t hear himself talk when the Rams played at Dayton in the regular-season finale last year before a sellout crowd of 13,455.

This one will be in front of a 94th consecutive sellout crowd of more than 7,600 stoked fans that former Rams coach Shaka Smart once termed “that animal.”

Funny, but my kids' high school football stadium seats more than VCU's gym.
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Old 01-27-2017, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
The Bonnies would vehemently disagree with your statement.
Bonnies were #88 in kenpom last year and basically mid 80s in all computer polls. They were #48 RPI with 7-5 top 100 and 2 bad losses over 150. Losses @234 and @161. The computer numbers killed them.

Totally different from Dayton's projected 2016-2017 resume ...
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  #44  
Old 01-27-2017, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Bonnies were #88 in kenpom last year and basically mid 80s in all computer polls. They were #48 RPI with 7-5 top 100 and 2 bad losses over 150. Losses @234 and @161. The computer numbers killed them.

Totally different from Dayton's projected 2016-2017 resume ...
Agree, 4-3 vs 50 to 100...2 losses to 100+...1 loss to 200+...those are the things that killed them...excellent record, 3-1, vs. 1 to 25 though.



Rpi/team/ ROAD NC OPP WIN LOSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 201+ ND1

30 St. Bonaventure 8-5 1-1 136 151 94 3-1 0-1 4-3 7-2 8-1 0-0




http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...report/2015-16
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Old 01-27-2017, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Pretty sure CBS Sports keeps all this. They have a Rankings link that shows the Polls and the RPI. If you go the expanded RPI rankings, they have the Nitty Gritty and breakdown for each team, plus all the past seasons for the last 10 or 15 years.
Awesome! Thank-you so much!
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Old 01-27-2017, 05:17 PM
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Bottom line, we are not "IN" if we win. We are not "OUT" if we lose. Yes, it is important. But there is a lot of basketball to be played. Really depends on how the rest of the teams play that we are in front of in the bracket as well as how well we play. Yes, I want us to get it done tonight. But it is not a ticket punching event yet.
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  #47  
Old 01-27-2017, 05:32 PM
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I havent seen this posted yet, here is their "Beat Dayton" thread

https://www.vcuramnation.com/forums/...-thread.16532/
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
I havent seen this posted yet, here is their "Beat Dayton" thread

https://www.vcuramnation.com/forums/...-thread.16532/
VCU are great BBall Fans...
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:17 PM
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Now that we have lost, I can say that this loss is NOT critical to our resume.
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  #50  
Old 01-27-2017, 11:23 PM
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The A-10

will probably be a one bid conference this year. The winner of the A-10 tourney will go dancing. This year's Dayton Flyers are like a Bran Gregory team. They play great defense and expend their energy on defense and have a difficult time scoring. Their offense is not NCAA caliber. The one thing they do not do as well as BG's teams is rebound. VCU embarassed Dayton on the boards.
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:25 PM
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I fear you're wrong. We need quality wins, and the league only has so many good teams. Every game is critical.
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:32 PM
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After tonight I think that we can afford no more than two more losses to feel comfortable coming into Selection Sunday, assuming we don't win the A-10 tourney.
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Old 01-27-2017, 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Dillomernda View Post
After tonight I think that we can afford no more than two more losses to feel comfortable coming into Selection Sunday, assuming we don't win the A-10 tourney.
You are correct. Need to go 8-2 the rest of the way for 23-7 and 14-4. Dayton favored in 9/10 games, supposed to lose by 1 @Rhody.

Worried about @Rhody, @Davidson, @GW, VCU, and one random game out of @Fordham, @SLU, Dukes, St Joe's, St Bonnie's, and George Mason.

Must win Next 3 @Fordham, Dukes, and St. Joe's. Expected win total is 2.64/3 with @Fordham toughest game with 80% chance to win.
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  #54  
Old 02-03-2017, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
The Bonnies would vehemently disagree with your statement.
Just sort of quickly comparing the 2016 Bonnies and 2015 Flyers, the similarities seem to be poor records vs. #'s 1-50 and too many 100+rpi losses.

The 2017 Flyers do not seem to have either problem. The record vs. the top 50 might be a little weak. UMASS is the only bad loss.
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Old 02-03-2017, 02:06 PM
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Similar resumes...both teams had too many 100+ rpi losses, the Bonnies were worse in that department...both teams had 3 losses to #'s 51-100...Bonnie's had a better #'s 1-25 record.

I bet if the Bonnies had 1 fewer bad loss, then they would have been in.

Average rpi:

road/neutral/opponent/win/loss
1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 201+ non-division 1

2015

SOS 93

25 wins 8 losses

32 Dayton 5-6 4-2 142 162 80 1-2 0-1 5-3 10-1 9-1 0-0

Average rpi:

road/neutral/opponent/win/loss
1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 201+ non-division 1

2016

SOS 81

22 wins 8 losses

30 St. Bonaventure 8-5 1-1 136 151 94 3-1 0-1 4-3 7-2 8-1 0-0

3-2 vs. Top 50 was good.

Last edited by ud2; 02-03-2017 at 02:16 PM..
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  #56  
Old 02-03-2017, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
You are correct. Need to go 8-2 the rest of the way for 23-7 and 14-4. Dayton favored in 9/10 games, supposed to lose by 1 @Rhody.

Worried about @Rhody, @Davidson, @GW, VCU, and one random game out of @Fordham, @SLU, Dukes, St Joe's, St Bonnie's, and George Mason.

Must win Next 3 @Fordham, Dukes, and St. Joe's. Expected win total is 2.64/3 with @Fordham toughest game with 80% chance to win.
Of remaining home games, to me St Joe's is scariest...and that includes VCU. Martelli has pretty much owned BG and AM. With BG it became apparent that he was able to figure out our offensive game plan and since BG never deviated, the results were the same. Under AM we've only beaten St Joe's once, and managed to drop 3 games to them in 2013-14.

Last edited by Radar; 02-03-2017 at 02:55 PM..
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  #57  
Old 02-03-2017, 02:51 PM
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The last VCU game was not critical for our resume, but the next VCU game certainly is!!
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Old 02-03-2017, 02:55 PM
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I looked back over the past several years...of teams that just missed the NCAAT, the commonalities seemed to be poor records vs. the top 50, too many 100+ rpi losses, too many losses(as in double digit losses), and a weak sos.

So, avoid the bad losses or too many losses, do at least a fair/decent job vs. the top 50, and try to have a decent sos, and you are in.

Colorado State in 2015 seems to have maybe gotten jobbed though, I saw no major flaws in their resume other than maybe a sos of 111 and 1 loss to a team over rpi 100. They had no rpi top 25 games, that does not help I guess.

Average rpi:

road/neutral/opponent/win/loss
1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 201+ non-division 1



Colorado State 8-4 4-1 161 182 68 0-0 2-3 3-2 10-1 11-0 1-0

26-6, rpi of 29

Sos 111

Last edited by ud2; 02-03-2017 at 03:01 PM..
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  #59  
Old 02-03-2017, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
The last VCU game was not critical for our resume, but the next VCU game certainly is!!
I think the answer is that it was a critical game if we won and not so much if we lost. At least that's how looks like to a fan.
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Old 02-04-2017, 10:24 AM
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Win the A10 league outright, whatever that takes. Win two Tournament games.

Or win the A10 Championship with the auto bid.

Pretty simple formula to follow. Pretty difficult to achieve.
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  #61  
Old 02-04-2017, 10:33 AM
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We need Vanderbilt to continue to rise. They are now in the Top 50. 3 more landmines to avoid. Today, St Louis, George Mason.
Split the URI / VCU games. Take care of business elsewhere. Could even afford a loss to Davidson or GW, but not both.

Pomeroy has us at a 3 point loss @URI and a 1 point win @Davidson. We are 10+ point favorites in all the other games, except VCU and @GW. We are 5 point and 6 point favorites in those games.

Avoid a bad loss in the A10 Tourney and we will be fine. Stock is rising.
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Mad Props to UD90 For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (02-04-2017)
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