|
|
02-19-2018, 06:46 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
2018 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities
Probabilities Through games of 2/17:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 98.72% 1.26% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.01
Davidson 0.82% 48.93% 49.09% 0.94% 0.22% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.51
St Bonaventure 0.46% 49.78% 46.12% 2.73% 0.67% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.54
St Louis 0.00% 0.03% 2.01% 46.30% 25.05% 15.21% 5.46% 2.57% 1.87% 1.21% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.99
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 2.01% 22.91% 20.09% 22.49% 18.99% 8.42% 3.37% 1.17% 0.42% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00% 5.82
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 13.00% 22.83% 23.50% 19.04% 10.60% 5.84% 2.70% 1.43% 0.90% 0.03% 0.00% 6.32
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 10.69% 22.75% 20.34% 16.48% 12.48% 9.52% 4.04% 2.15% 0.86% 0.11% 0.00% 6.57
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 1.11% 2.55% 7.10% 14.80% 20.47% 17.45% 12.56% 11.74% 8.54% 3.48% 0.18% 8.89
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.90% 4.24% 6.47% 11.04% 14.01% 13.59% 16.90% 13.91% 12.05% 5.13% 0.78% 9.23
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.38% 1.51% 5.29% 16.37% 24.00% 23.26% 13.15% 9.50% 5.87% 0.59% 9.71
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 0.73% 1.31% 2.92% 6.51% 11.45% 17.75% 25.54% 20.15% 9.09% 4.27% 10.66
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.46% 1.41% 4.62% 6.24% 8.33% 13.00% 18.04% 22.89% 16.30% 8.67% 11.05
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.44% 1.32% 2.24% 3.84% 5.58% 8.37% 12.87% 33.27% 32.03% 12.48
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.10% 0.74% 1.84% 4.97% 12.14% 26.71% 53.48% 13.22
Still a 23.94% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2018, 08:43 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 2/17:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 10.69% 22.75% 20.34% 16.48% 12.48% 9.52% 4.04% 2.15% 0.86% 0.11% 0.00% 6.57
|
I have to argue here. Richmond has swept Davidson, and is only 3 games behind them.
- Rhode Island has 13, so that would keep them in 1st place.
- Richmond wins out - 11-7
- Davidson loses 3 or 4 - 11-7 or 10-8
- Bonaventure loses out - 10-8
- Saint Louis loses out - 8-10 (they swept Richmond)
- St. Joes plays Richmond still, and is tied at 7-7, so, with Richmond losing out, won't tie.
- Richmond swept VCU, so a tie there would be in Richmond's favor.
I've got Richmond at 0.14% for 2nd place.
And, unfortunately, I have Dayton at 32.41% for bottom 4. Unfortunately, 268 million possible results makes it hard to figure things to that detail. I assume that the 32.41% includes losses to either, or both of GW and LaSalle since we still have them to play.
Is it a positive, though, that I have Dayton with 2.87% chance of top 4?
Figgie
|
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-20-2018, 08:29 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Figgie,
That has to do with the fact that you are 50/50 predicting each game while I am weighting for the RPIForecast probability of each game. For example, St. Bonaventure losing at home to Duquesne only has a 10% chance of happening in my projections.
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-20-2018, 09:29 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Figgie,
That has to do with the fact that you are 50/50 predicting each game while I am weighting for the RPIForecast probability of each game. For example, St. Bonaventure losing at home to Duquesne only has a 10% chance of happening in my projections.
|
So what are our chances of finishing: 10-8, 9-9, 8-10, 7-11, 6-12?
|
02-21-2018, 07:51 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/20:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 99.70% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
Davidson 0.17% 49.29% 49.77% 0.65% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.51
St Bonaventure 0.13% 50.41% 46.54% 2.36% 0.40% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.53
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 35.91% 27.86% 19.53% 7.47% 3.78% 2.84% 1.77% 0.34% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.31
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 2.28% 25.97% 21.30% 19.11% 16.39% 9.30% 3.90% 1.17% 0.43% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 5.74
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 16.82% 20.40% 22.26% 17.95% 11.04% 6.16% 2.64% 1.54% 0.99% 0.04% 0.00% 6.28
Richmond 0.00% 0.01% 0.71% 13.80% 19.67% 18.12% 15.84% 13.60% 10.95% 4.26% 2.18% 0.81% 0.07% 0.00% 6.60
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 1.63% 3.89% 10.46% 19.76% 24.06% 18.30% 10.05% 5.24% 5.57% 1.05% 0.01% 8.23
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.44% 4.98% 6.12% 10.03% 13.81% 13.37% 16.14% 14.59% 12.56% 5.22% 0.73% 9.23
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.45% 1.71% 4.98% 13.01% 24.90% 25.94% 13.48% 9.39% 5.57% 0.45% 9.75
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% 0.89% 1.47% 2.85% 6.04% 10.95% 19.38% 28.74% 17.12% 8.28% 3.97% 10.60
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.67% 3.43% 3.46% 4.52% 11.28% 19.30% 25.45% 20.03% 11.84% 11.53
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.40% 1.27% 1.80% 3.30% 5.33% 8.69% 14.56% 33.47% 31.14% 12.50
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% 0.82% 2.05% 5.47% 13.43% 26.25% 51.86% 13.17
Still an 11.86% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
02-21-2018, 09:16 AM
|
|
Lieutenant Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 955
Thanks: 1,496
Thanked 233 Times in 129 Posts
|
|
are all the games in D.C. this year?
|
02-21-2018, 09:19 AM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,748
Thanks: 2,609
Thanked 2,341 Times in 1,412 Posts
|
|
% chance of being one and done?
|
02-21-2018, 09:32 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by mikeymo85
are all the games in D.C. this year?
|
yes. It has been that way for the last 6 years (including this year). The first year in Brooklyn, the bottom 4 teams didn't even get to play in the tournament. Now the bottom 4 play on Wednesday night.
|
02-22-2018, 08:51 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
After a wild night in the Atlantic 10, can one of you do your magic and update this?
Posted via Mobile Device
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Flyerferd For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-22-2018, 10:11 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/21:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 99.92% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.04% 57.14% 40.11% 2.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.45
Davidson 0.04% 42.78% 57.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.57
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 2.72% 52.58% 16.88% 13.42% 7.44% 4.74% 1.94% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.94
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.97% 43.49% 17.53% 4.09% 2.01% 1.65% 0.92% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.15
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.07% 17.69% 24.18% 17.76% 15.03% 7.06% 5.41% 3.83% 1.94% 0.02% 0.00% 6.90
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.61% 12.51% 15.24% 22.27% 16.18% 18.58% 7.61% 2.54% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00% 7.35
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.07% 5.51% 17.34% 18.02% 21.07% 18.10% 8.21% 5.55% 4.13% 0.00% 0.00% 7.90
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.85% 2.60% 8.85% 18.84% 21.05% 20.94% 12.39% 6.74% 7.38% 0.36% 0.00% 8.50
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.47% 1.30% 4.78% 8.61% 15.50% 35.26% 17.40% 10.21% 5.91% 0.55% 10.03
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.84% 1.68% 3.61% 8.31% 11.60% 19.65% 33.65% 14.97% 5.27% 0.30% 10.30
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.47% 3.19% 2.97% 3.10% 6.63% 17.15% 34.44% 24.13% 7.92% 11.70
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.53% 2.07% 8.37% 17.78% 35.79% 35.45% 12.93
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.00% 1.59% 4.39% 8.71% 28.49% 55.78% 13.29
Still an 14.48% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-22-2018, 10:16 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 2/21:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 99.92% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.04% 57.14% 40.11% 2.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.45
Davidson 0.04% 42.78% 57.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.57
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 2.72% 52.58% 16.88% 13.42% 7.44% 4.74% 1.94% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.94
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.97% 43.49% 17.53% 4.09% 2.01% 1.65% 0.92% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.15
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.07% 17.69% 24.18% 17.76% 15.03% 7.06% 5.41% 3.83% 1.94% 0.02% 0.00% 6.90
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.61% 12.51% 15.24% 22.27% 16.18% 18.58% 7.61% 2.54% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00% 7.35
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.07% 5.51% 17.34% 18.02% 21.07% 18.10% 8.21% 5.55% 4.13% 0.00% 0.00% 7.90
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.85% 2.60% 8.85% 18.84% 21.05% 20.94% 12.39% 6.74% 7.38% 0.36% 0.00% 8.50
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.47% 1.30% 4.78% 8.61% 15.50% 35.26% 17.40% 10.21% 5.91% 0.55% 10.03
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.84% 1.68% 3.61% 8.31% 11.60% 19.65% 33.65% 14.97% 5.27% 0.30% 10.30
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.47% 3.19% 2.97% 3.10% 6.63% 17.15% 34.44% 24.13% 7.92% 11.70
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.53% 2.07% 8.37% 17.78% 35.79% 35.45% 12.93
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.00% 1.59% 4.39% 8.71% 28.49% 55.78% 13.29
Still an 14.48% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
LIBob - Do you factor all the tie breakers into this analysis?
|
02-22-2018, 11:02 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Thank you! Sounds like ultimately we will be in that 9/8 game.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
02-22-2018, 11:12 AM
|
Lieutenant General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 4,068
Thanks: 5,605
Thanked 2,346 Times in 1,341 Posts
|
|
I would have thought last night's outcomes would have helped our probabilities but it looks like they are slightly worse than before yesterday's games.
|
02-22-2018, 01:06 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,103
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
|
|
Getting a 6/7 seed key for the Flyers to have even an extremely remote chance of winning A-10. Realize have not won 3 in a row this year so winning 4 in a row probably low single digit % chance.
Key is not facing Rhody. Hope springs eternal ...
|
02-22-2018, 02:11 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,840
Thanks: 2,659
Thanked 1,933 Times in 910 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CT Flyer
I would have thought last night's outcomes would have helped our probabilities but it looks like they are slightly worse than before yesterday's games.
|
I was thinking the same thing, since 2 of the 3 teams just a game ahead of us lost ( Richmond and SJU). Had UMass been able to hold off VCU, perhaps the numbers would look a little different (better), but we're now tied in the standings with SJU, GMason and Richmond and only own the tie breaker with Richmond. Ideally, we'd want tie breakers with teams like VCU (we split), SLU (we split), Duquesne (we split). If there was a 2 team tie with any of them, we'd have a leg up by virtue of our wins over SBU and Davidson. In 3-way tie breaks, it would help too since we own some wins over those teams. Ironically, we own the tiebreakers over teams we can't catch - SBU and Davidson and teams we don't want to catch - Fordham.
Looking at the bracket, I think the best spot for us to land and have a shot at getting to the finals would be as the 6th seed. It gives others a chance to knock off Rhody, while our path would most likely consist of Duquesne/GW/Fordham in Game 1, Davidson in Game 2, SBU in Game 3, then the final.
"Having dreams is what makes life tolerable."
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to SLUFLYER For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-22-2018, 02:29 PM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,782
Thanks: 796
Thanked 604 Times in 335 Posts
|
|
With our lack of bench production that has led to some mysterious losses, I think we should brace for the 8/9 seed. Best we do is 2 and 1 to finish out, still significant chance of epic failing and going 1 and 2. My guess is we see a 3-0 sweep by URI this year. It is what it is, but we can still hope for a strong and fun finish!
Go Flyers!
|
02-22-2018, 03:17 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Yes, tiebreakers are factored into this. In matter of fact, it actually accounts for the majority of the code in the program. what really hurt the Flyers chances was the George Mason win last night. Remember win probabilities for each game are factored into the projection. Since GM only had about a 35% chance of winning before the game, their win affects things a lot more than when favorites win. Conversely, should UD pull out a win tomorrow night, it will provide a major bump to their projections, since right nw they only have a 7% chance of winning.
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-22-2018, 03:23 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,665
Thanks: 1,935
Thanked 2,211 Times in 976 Posts
|
|
Who won, not who lost
Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I was thinking the same thing, since 2 of the 3 teams just a game ahead of us lost (Richmond and SJU). Had UMass been able to hold off VCU, perhaps the numbers would look a little different (better), but we're now tied in the standings with SJU, GMason and Richmond and only own the tie breaker with Richmond. Ideally, we'd want tie breakers with teams like VCU (we split), SLU (we split), Duquesne (we split). If there was a 2 team tie with any of them, we'd have a leg up by virtue of our wins over SBU and Davidson. In 3-way tie breaks, it would help too since we own some wins over those teams. Ironically, we own the tiebreakers over teams we can't catch - SBU and Davidson and teams we don't want to catch - Fordham.
"
|
Our statistical chances were hurt by GW and George Mason winning, not by those ahead of us losing. Had GW lost, we would have a 2 game separation from 11th place. Had Mason lost, St. Joe would be a game ahead, but Mason would be a game behind. As it stands, we are tied with both, but lose the tie breakers so we are effectively behind both.
Going forward:
1. Cheer for UD
2. GW and LaSalle both play Fordham. We are up 3 with the tie break on Fordham, so we can cheer for the Rams without much concern. Their wins are good for UD.
3. GW goes to SLU and comes to UD with Fordham visiting in between. They are playing well right now.
4. LaSalle goes to Fordham, has UD at home, and then to St. Joe. They play OK at home, but are currently win-less on the road in conference.
5. Duquesne has Davidson and SLU at home before ending at UMass. The Dukes have a very good chance to play their way into a Wednesday game in DC.
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
|
Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-22-2018, 03:53 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Yes, tiebreakers are factored into this. In matter of fact, it actually accounts for the majority of the code in the program. what really hurt the Flyers chances was the George Mason win last night. Remember win probabilities for each game are factored into the projection. Since GM only had about a 35% chance of winning before the game, their win affects things a lot more than when favorites win. Conversely, should UD pull out a win tomorrow night, it will provide a major bump to their projections, since right nw they only have a 7% chance of winning.
|
Ok now that i know how smart you are, can you run any scenarios for projected UD results? Like what happens to %s if win against LAS or a win against GW/ I am giving up on a URI win but that may be a good omen.
I know the games still have to be played but I love looking at this stuff. Plus it keeps me from arguing with ud2.
|
02-23-2018, 11:18 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
CE80, For my next trick, I'll prove that I have way too much time on my hands.
Code:
UD Results Probablity 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
WWW 2.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 37.75% 52.77% 9.15% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.72
WWL 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 7.21% 30.87% 42.80% 16.76% 1.58% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72
WLW 3.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 8.76% 33.70% 42.03% 14.34% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.61
WLL 1.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 2.74% 17.12% 36.10% 32.61% 10.97% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.33
LWW 27.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 4.87% 26.37% 49.59% 18.02% 0.86% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.83
LWL 9.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 2.28% 14.98% 35.38% 36.56% 10.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.38
LLW 42.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.29% 8.18% 32.76% 39.44% 17.66% 1.58% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
LLL 14.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 1.71% 9.48% 35.18% 50.69% 2.81% 0.02% 11.43
|
7 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-23-2018, 12:26 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
CE80, For my next trick, I'll prove that I have way too much time on my hands.
Code:
UD Results Probablity 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
WWW 2.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 37.75% 52.77% 9.15% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.72
WWL 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 7.21% 30.87% 42.80% 16.76% 1.58% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72
WLW 3.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 8.76% 33.70% 42.03% 14.34% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.61
WLL 1.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 2.74% 17.12% 36.10% 32.61% 10.97% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.33
LWW 27.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 4.87% 26.37% 49.59% 18.02% 0.86% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.83
LWL 9.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 2.28% 14.98% 35.38% 36.56% 10.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.38
LLW 42.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.29% 8.18% 32.76% 39.44% 17.66% 1.58% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
LLL 14.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 1.71% 9.48% 35.18% 50.69% 2.81% 0.02% 11.43
|
You are awesome. I have to give out random reps just so I can give you more.
|
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-23-2018, 12:36 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,574
Thanks: 16,269
Thanked 15,915 Times in 6,996 Posts
|
|
FIGGIE > LIBob
But he better be careful...
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-23-2018, 01:34 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by rollo
FIGGIE > LIBob
|
No argument here on that!
|
02-23-2018, 02:02 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
He just does things differently than I do, which is interesting to see the differences.
LIBob uses RPIForecast, and Figgie uses 50/50 and all possible results. It's interesting to be able to know that if an upset occurs, what are the possibilities left.
For instance, the bottom 4 possibilities ... LIBob had 24% originally, while I had 32%. Then after the first update LIBob went down to 12%, while I dropped to 16%. (It was like 49.3% for each of us when I did the math.) The third update, LIBob went upto 14%, and I came down to 15%. It's interesting to see us converging at our percentages.
I hate to see how he has LLW as the biggest chance through RPIForecast though. Of course, looking back at our road La Salle games, we have lost 3 straight at Gola, and last win was in 2011.
|
02-23-2018, 02:08 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,574
Thanks: 16,269
Thanked 15,915 Times in 6,996 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Figgie123
He just does things differently than I do, which is interesting to see the differences.
LIBob uses RPIForecast, and Figgie uses 50/50 and all possible results. It's interesting to be able to know that if an upset occurs, what are the possibilities left.
For instance, the bottom 4 possibilities ... LIBob had 24% originally, while I had 32%. Then after the first update LIBob went down to 12%, while I dropped to 16%. (It was like 49.3% for each of us when I did the math.) The third update, LIBob went upto 14%, and I came down to 15%. It's interesting to see us converging at our percentages.
I hate to see how he has LLW as the biggest chance through RPIForecast though. Of course, looking back at our road La Salle games, we have lost 3 straight at Gola, and last win was in 2011.
|
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-23-2018, 02:13 PM
|
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 9,593
Thanks: 3,396
Thanked 6,634 Times in 3,033 Posts
|
|
I have no idea what any of that means, but give me 9 or 10 days and I'll give you the seedings.
|
Mad Props to longtimefan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-23-2018, 02:23 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by longtimefan
I have no idea what any of that means, but give me 9 or 10 days and I'll give you the seedings.
|
1. Root for the Flyers
2. Root against VCU (vs Bona, vs Mason, at Fordham)
3. Root against Billikens (vs GW, at Duq, vs Bona)
4. Root against Mason except against VCU (vs Mass, @VCU, vs Rich)
5. Root against Joe's (@Rich, @RI, vs LaSal)
Those are the things that will improve UD's seeding. Possibly all the way to 4th place. That includes if UD loses to Rhode Island.
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-23-2018, 03:08 PM
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,923
Thanks: 1,362
Thanked 1,319 Times in 686 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Figgie123
1. Root for the Flyers
2. Root against VCU (vs Bona, vs Mason, at Fordham)
3. Root against Billikens (vs GW, at Duq, vs Bona)
4. Root against Mason except against VCU (vs Mass, @VCU, vs Rich)
5. Root against Joe's (@Rich, @RI, vs LaSal)
Those are the things that will improve UD's seeding. Possibly all the way to 4th place. That includes if UD loses to Rhode Island.
|
Let me simplify this for everyone.
1. Root for UD to win 3 or 4 straight in the tournament.
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to TXFlyerFan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-25-2018, 01:49 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/24:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
Davidson 0.00% 50.43% 49.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.50
St Bonaventure 0.00% 49.57% 50.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.50
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 35.03% 43.40% 18.32% 3.26% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.90
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 48.21% 23.74% 8.80% 9.76% 5.52% 3.53% 0.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.13
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 11.93% 20.31% 31.30% 9.66% 14.80% 9.78% 2.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.33
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.83% 9.65% 26.40% 30.47% 18.32% 8.80% 1.07% 0.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.03% 7.70% 15.22% 14.08% 39.67% 18.36% 2.61% 0.32% 0.00% 0.00% 8.49
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 4.82% 15.37% 31.97% 21.52% 9.99% 6.02% 9.43% 0.00% 0.00% 8.70
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 4.14% 5.98% 8.93% 18.52% 41.81% 15.98% 4.22% 0.00% 10.51
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.76% 5.71% 6.47% 43.19% 22.05% 14.74% 6.80% 0.17% 10.52
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.15% 11.37% 3.61% 1.30% 6.22% 24.00% 48.14% 3.22% 0.00% 10.79
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.69% 7.17% 41.34% 48.80% 13.36
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.34% 4.21% 44.42% 51.03% 13.46
Still an 15.45% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
02-25-2018, 01:49 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
1. Root for UD to win 3 or 4 straight in the tournament.
|
Or 5.
|
02-25-2018, 02:31 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
And the CE80 version of the projections.
Code:
UD Results Probablity 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
WW 32.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.82% 15.50% 43.37% 38.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.17
WL 11.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.43% 14.49% 49.21% 29.42% 4.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19
LW 41.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.29% 43.16% 38.27% 14.22% 2.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
LL 14.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.09% 30.42% 64.49% 0.00% 0.00% 11.59
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-25-2018, 03:31 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
And the CE80 version of the projections.
Code:
UD Results Probablity 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
WW 32.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.82% 15.50% 43.37% 38.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.17
WL 11.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.43% 14.49% 49.21% 29.42% 4.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19
LW 41.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.29% 43.16% 38.27% 14.22% 2.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
LL 14.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.09% 30.42% 64.49% 0.00% 0.00% 11.59
|
Mega thanks!!
|
02-25-2018, 03:34 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
How many times have we ended the season with GW and how many times have they ruined our chance at doing something?
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-25-2018, 04:00 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
At this point hope for 6,7 or 10th. No Wednesday game and no possible URI until Sunday.
Would we rather play St. Bonaventure or Davidson?
|
02-26-2018, 10:53 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
At this point hope for 6,7 or 10th. No Wednesday game and no possible URI until Sunday.
Would we rather play St. Bonaventure or Davidson?
|
I vote Davidson. Bona Will be playing for their at large lives and would love nothing more than to show the committee on a neutral floor, the game at our place was truly an aberration.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mad Props to Flyerferd For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-26-2018, 11:22 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Flyerferd
I vote Davidson. Bona Will be playing for their at large lives and would love nothing more than to show the committee on a neutral floor, the game at our place was truly an aberration.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
And Davidson will have to win it all to get in the NCAAT
Every team will be desperate.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
02-26-2018, 11:53 AM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,345
Thanks: 469
Thanked 1,629 Times in 765 Posts
|
|
Holy **** is this depressing.
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-26-2018, 12:39 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Springboro
Posts: 2,422
Thanks: 2,220
Thanked 2,767 Times in 1,133 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
At this point hope for 6,7 or 10th. No Wednesday game and no possible URI until Sunday.
Would we rather play St. Bonaventure or Davidson?
|
I think we match up better against Davidson that Bona
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
02-26-2018, 04:07 PM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 1,532
Thanks: 1,246
Thanked 752 Times in 357 Posts
|
|
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.
On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.
We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
|
Mad Props to redbengal For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-26-2018, 04:16 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 9,025
Thanks: 3,726
Thanked 5,165 Times in 2,722 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by redbengal
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.
On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.
We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
|
Can i get some of whatever you are on?
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to cj For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
UD62 (02-26-2018), wes (02-27-2018) |
02-26-2018, 04:16 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,840
Thanks: 2,659
Thanked 1,933 Times in 910 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by redbengal
but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.
|
We have just as good of a chance if we shoot as soon as we cross half court......
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to SLUFLYER For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-26-2018, 09:51 PM
|
Lieutenant Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 987
Thanks: 191
Thanked 466 Times in 202 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by redbengal
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.
On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.
We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
|
We have basically zero chance of beating Rhode Island. They are everything we are not - talented and experienced. While I do think we could beat anyone else in the A-10, Rhode Island will end our season if we meet them again.
Let's be realistic, this team has only won back to back games twice. The idea of winning 4 (or 5) in a row is fantasy land.
|
02-26-2018, 10:34 PM
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,923
Thanks: 1,362
Thanked 1,319 Times in 686 Posts
|
|
If we can't beat RI, do we have any business being in the NCAA tournament, even if by sheer dumb luck?
|
02-27-2018, 06:47 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: It's hot and there is fire
Posts: 9,357
Thanks: 5,415
Thanked 9,815 Times in 4,076 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
If we can't beat RI, do we have any business being in the NCAA tournament, even if by sheer dumb luck?
|
This team doesn't have any business in the tournament due to the entire body of work this season.
Luck...maybe...
|
02-27-2018, 07:40 AM
|
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 419
Thanks: 306
Thanked 556 Times in 190 Posts
|
|
Seeding can be wherever as far as I'm concerned. It's going to take 50% luck, 50% grit, 50% hard work, 50% coaching, and the remainder of the pie chart being prayer to win the championship; it'll take a lot to get to the finish line, so the starting point is irrelevant.
|
02-27-2018, 11:25 AM
|
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Miami Twp.
Posts: 3,342
Thanks: 268
Thanked 2,234 Times in 1,038 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by redbengal
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.
On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.
We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
|
Davidson beat us as a 9 last year.
LaSalle lost by 1 in 2015 to Davidson.
St. Bona beat SLU in 2014.
UMass beat Temple in 2012.
We beat X in 2011.
He's not wrong. The 8/9 over the 1 upset has happened or ALMOST happened 5 of the last 7 years.
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
02-27-2018, 01:04 PM
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 619
Thanks: 1,079
Thanked 587 Times in 260 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Widget
Seeding can be wherever as far as I'm concerned. It's going to take 50% luck, 50% grit, 50% hard work, 50% coaching, and the remainder of the pie chart being prayer to win the championship; it'll take a lot to get to the finish line, so the starting point is irrelevant.
|
Widget...you are already at 200%. That doesn't leave much pie chart left for "prayer to win the championship". lol.
Hopefully you were an english major and not math or accounting.
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to superfan99 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-27-2018, 01:35 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Bluffton, SC
Posts: 22,266
Thanks: 17,648
Thanked 10,176 Times in 5,904 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by superfan99
Widget...you are already at 200%. That doesn't leave much pie chart left for "prayer to win the championship". lol.
Hopefully you were an english major and not math or accounting.
|
Yogi Berra taught his math class.
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to jack72 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-27-2018, 03:38 PM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Let’s just beat LaSalle!
Posted via Mobile Device
|
Mad Props to Flyerferd For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-28-2018, 08:37 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/27:
Code:
TeTeam 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 82.54% 17.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17
Davidson 0.00% 17.46% 82.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.83
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 38.09% 27.22% 19.11% 15.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.12
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 34.09% 20.64% 32.35% 12.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.24
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.51% 41.41% 18.54% 11.96% 6.95% 3.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.60
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.32% 10.73% 21.82% 26.17% 11.77% 14.05% 4.87% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.72% 18.30% 23.52% 37.58% 12.13% 2.45% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 8.41
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.47% 13.01% 37.19% 16.66% 14.03% 7.13% 9.51% 0.00% 0.00% 8.86
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 7.01% 8.13% 41.45% 21.00% 14.83% 6.92% 0.19% 10.49
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 8.14% 10.87% 18.83% 41.64% 16.26% 4.19% 0.00% 10.59
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.51% 5.44% 9.07% 8.69% 24.48% 47.68% 3.15% 0.00% 11.05
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.67% 7.15% 41.38% 48.80% 13.36
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 4.26% 44.37% 51.01% 13.46
Still an 16.64% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
02-28-2018, 08:48 AM
|
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 419
Thanks: 306
Thanked 556 Times in 190 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 2/27:
Code:
TeTeam 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 82.54% 17.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17
Davidson 0.00% 17.46% 82.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.83
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 38.09% 27.22% 19.11% 15.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.12
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 34.09% 20.64% 32.35% 12.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.24
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.51% 41.41% 18.54% 11.96% 6.95% 3.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.60
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.32% 10.73% 21.82% 26.17% 11.77% 14.05% 4.87% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.72% 18.30% 23.52% 37.58% 12.13% 2.45% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 8.41
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.47% 13.01% 37.19% 16.66% 14.03% 7.13% 9.51% 0.00% 0.00% 8.86
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 7.01% 8.13% 41.45% 21.00% 14.83% 6.92% 0.19% 10.49
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 8.14% 10.87% 18.83% 41.64% 16.26% 4.19% 0.00% 10.59
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.51% 5.44% 9.07% 8.69% 24.48% 47.68% 3.15% 0.00% 11.05
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.67% 7.15% 41.38% 48.80% 13.36
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 4.26% 44.37% 51.01% 13.46
Still an 16.64% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
Now, I added all those percentages up, and I came up with 1400%. Yet only my chops are getting busted for math issues....
|
02-28-2018, 11:16 AM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,802
Thanks: 528
Thanked 1,859 Times in 720 Posts
|
|
Yes, there is a 100% probability that 14 schools will each occupy one of the fourteen seed lines. You do the math, as they say.
|
Mad Props to sheg For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-28-2018, 11:32 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 2/27:
Code:
TeTeam 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 82.54% 17.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17
Davidson 0.00% 17.46% 82.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.83
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 38.09% 27.22% 19.11% 15.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.12
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 34.09% 20.64% 32.35% 12.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.24
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.51% 41.41% 18.54% 11.96% 6.95% 3.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.60
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.32% 10.73% 21.82% 26.17% 11.77% 14.05% 4.87% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.72% 18.30% 23.52% 37.58% 12.13% 2.45% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 8.41
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.47% 13.01% 37.19% 16.66% 14.03% 7.13% 9.51% 0.00% 0.00% 8.86
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47% 7.01% 8.13% 41.45% 21.00% 14.83% 6.92% 0.19% 10.49
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 8.14% 10.87% 18.83% 41.64% 16.26% 4.19% 0.00% 10.59
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.51% 5.44% 9.07% 8.69% 24.48% 47.68% 3.15% 0.00% 11.05
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.67% 7.15% 41.38% 48.80% 13.36
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 4.26% 44.37% 51.01% 13.46
Still an 16.64% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
I am guessing the perfect storm that allows us to lose the next 2 and not play Wednesday is Richmond losing 2 and Duquesne losing 1 or 2.
|
02-28-2018, 12:26 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
I am guessing the perfect storm that allows us to lose the next 2 and not play Wednesday is Richmond losing 2 and Duquesne losing 1 or 2.
|
This is what I've got for missing Wednesday after UD losing 2.
Code:
1 80 80 50.0 GeorgeMason VCU
2 96 64 60.0 SaintLouis Duquesne
3 48 112 70.0 Fordham GeorgeWashington
4 0 160 100.0 Dayton LaSalle
5 160 0 100.0 Massachusetts Richmond
6 80 80 50.0 RhodeIsland Davidson
7 96 64 60.0 LaSalle SaintJoseph's
8 80 80 50.0 VCU Fordham
9 160 0 100.0 GeorgeWashington Dayton
10 0 160 100.0 Richmond GeorgeMason
11 64 96 60.0 Duquesne Massachusetts
12 80 80 50.0 St.Bonaventure SaintLouis
So, yes Richmond losing 2, and Duquesne in there, but might need help with GW and La Salle winning to help Rich/Duq be below us. Since our last 2 losses would be GW/LaSal, that could be 0-1 or 0-2 added to our multi-team tie break, and could hurt us.
UD would be 1-0 vs Rich, 1-1 vs Duq, 0-1 vs GW and 0-1 vs LAS (2-3)
Rich would be 0-1 vs Day, 1-0 vs Duq, 1-1 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (3-2)
Duq would be 1-1 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 2-0 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (4-2)
GW would be 1-0 vs Day, 1-1 vs Rich, 0-2 vs Duq and 1-0 vs LAS (3-3)
Las would be 1-0 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 0-1 vs Duq and 0-1 vs GW (1-3)
So, 5 team tie break, UD is 4th, and play Wednesday.
But, let's take GW out of the equation by beating Fordham.
UD is now 2-2, Rich is now 2-1, Duq is now 2-2 and La Salle is 1-2. UD is in the middle 2, and get the nod with the victory over either Stb or Davidson, whoever gets the #2 seed.
Or, we let La Salle be Joes, and GW is in the 4 team split.
UD is 2-2, Rich is 2-2, Duq is 3-2, GW is 2-3. UD tied with Rich, and the head-to-head tiebreak goes to Dayton.
Or, La Salle and GW both win out, and it's 3 team between UD, Rich and Duq. UD is 2-1, Rich is 1-1 and Duq is 1-2. Dayton stays out.
So, it seems it's the 5-way tiebreak that will cause UD to play Wednesday.
Please feel free to double check me here.
(We can still be playing Wednesday if we win 1 of 2. We'd need help, but it can happen.)
Last edited by Figgie123; 02-28-2018 at 12:28 PM..
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-28-2018, 12:35 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,574
Thanks: 16,269
Thanked 15,915 Times in 6,996 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Figgie123
This is what I've got for missing Wednesday after UD losing 2.
Code:
1 80 80 50.0 GeorgeMason VCU
2 96 64 60.0 SaintLouis Duquesne
3 48 112 70.0 Fordham GeorgeWashington
4 0 160 100.0 Dayton LaSalle
5 160 0 100.0 Massachusetts Richmond
6 80 80 50.0 RhodeIsland Davidson
7 96 64 60.0 LaSalle SaintJoseph's
8 80 80 50.0 VCU Fordham
9 160 0 100.0 GeorgeWashington Dayton
10 0 160 100.0 Richmond GeorgeMason
11 64 96 60.0 Duquesne Massachusetts
12 80 80 50.0 St.Bonaventure SaintLouis
So, yes Richmond losing 2, and Duquesne in there, but might need help with GW and La Salle winning to help Rich/Duq be below us. Since our last 2 losses would be GW/LaSal, that could be 0-1 or 0-2 added to our multi-team tie break, and could hurt us.
UD would be 1-0 vs Rich, 1-1 vs Duq, 0-1 vs GW and 0-1 vs LAS (2-3)
Rich would be 0-1 vs Day, 1-0 vs Duq, 1-1 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (3-2)
Duq would be 1-1 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 2-0 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (4-2)
GW would be 1-0 vs Day, 1-1 vs Rich, 0-2 vs Duq and 1-0 vs LAS (3-3)
Las would be 1-0 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 0-1 vs Duq and 0-1 vs GW (1-3)
So, 5 team tie break, UD is 4th, and play Wednesday.
But, let's take GW out of the equation by beating Fordham.
UD is now 2-2, Rich is now 2-1, Duq is now 2-2 and La Salle is 1-2. UD is in the middle 2, and get the nod with the victory over either Stb or Davidson, whoever gets the #2 seed.
Or, we let La Salle be Joes, and GW is in the 4 team split.
UD is 2-2, Rich is 2-2, Duq is 3-2, GW is 2-3. UD tied with Rich, and the head-to-head tiebreak goes to Dayton.
Or, La Salle and GW both win out, and it's 3 team between UD, Rich and Duq. UD is 2-1, Rich is 1-1 and Duq is 1-2. Dayton stays out.
So, it seems it's the 5-way tiebreak that will cause UD to play Wednesday.
Please feel free to double check me here.
(We can still be playing Wednesday if we win 1 of 2. We'd need help, but it can happen.)
|
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-01-2018, 09:00 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/28:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 80.63% 19.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.19
Davidson 0.00% 19.37% 80.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.81
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 65.50% 23.82% 0.00% 10.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.56
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 19.17% 44.28% 36.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.17
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 15.33% 31.90% 26.44% 26.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.64
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 26.32% 14.72% 53.69% 5.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.38
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.69% 43.00% 25.11% 21.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.57
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.27% 21.21% 13.65% 25.33% 8.58% 25.96% 0.00% 0.00% 9.89
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.96% 51.39% 18.66% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.89
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.10% 9.86% 51.65% 22.40% 0.00% 0.00% 10.80
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 13.82% 13.42% 21.12% 51.65% 0.00% 0.00% 11.11
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 55.69% 44.32% 13.44
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 44.32% 55.69% 13.56
Still an 34.54% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
03-01-2018, 09:12 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
So, I win on Saturday and then… I guess just hope the teams behind us, One of which is the team we are playing, lose? That’s basically it? Hoping for the 10th spot.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
03-02-2018, 02:41 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 3/1 (Small update due to changes in RPIForecast game projections):
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 80.55% 19.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.19
Davidson 0.00% 19.46% 80.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.81
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 65.00% 24.40% 0.00% 10.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.56
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 19.64% 43.91% 36.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.17
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 15.37% 31.69% 26.62% 26.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.64
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 26.33% 14.26% 54.73% 4.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.38
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.61% 44.12% 24.99% 20.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.55
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 31.94% 49.52% 18.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.87
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.68% 20.28% 13.05% 25.07% 8.84% 28.08% 0.00% 0.00% 9.97
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.76% 11.32% 49.80% 22.12% 0.00% 0.00% 10.77
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 13.28% 14.10% 22.82% 49.80% 0.00% 0.00% 11.09
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 56.87% 43.13% 13.43
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 43.13% 56.87% 13.57
Up to a 36.92% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
|
03-02-2018, 02:56 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
And by UD Result:
Code:
UD Results Probablity 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
W 72.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.25% 28.48% 17.82% 35.33% 12.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19
L 28.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12.00
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-02-2018, 03:12 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
To expand slightly on LIBob, if UD loses, we can actually get 11th place too. But, really, that is no different ... we will be the "home" team against Fordham or Massachusetts. Well, maybe it is different ... if we lose, we may want Fordham.
Lose - 11th place - LAS > STJ, MAS > DUQ
|
03-02-2018, 03:20 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Also, to end up 11th with a Win over GW, would require Las > STJ, Duq > Mas, VCU > For, and Rich > GM. Basically, a 3 way tie between Duq/Day/Las puts us in 11th place. Add VCU and/or Richmond to the tiebreak, and LAS misses out.
So root for STJ on your way to the Arena tomorrow.
|
03-02-2018, 03:34 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: It's hot and there is fire
Posts: 9,357
Thanks: 5,415
Thanked 9,815 Times in 4,076 Posts
|
|
Glad I am passing on A10 this year...could be Wednesday with a quick return home...
|
03-02-2018, 04:19 PM
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,923
Thanks: 1,362
Thanked 1,319 Times in 686 Posts
|
|
At this point, I assume no matter what position we finish in, if we win we play RI?
|
03-02-2018, 06:30 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
At this point, I assume no matter what position we finish in, if we win we play RI?
|
I will be happy if we get a chance to play URI again.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
03-03-2018, 12:36 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
LIBob and Figgie: Will either of you be updating this as the A-10 games go final today?
Thanks in advance.
|
03-03-2018, 12:43 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
What teams are we rooting for today? What exactly is our ideal seed? Has #2 and#3 been settled for SBU and Davidson?
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
03-03-2018, 12:53 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Bonnies get 2nd with win. Davidson gets second with Bonnies loss.
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 02:13 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
LIBob and Figgie: Will either of you be updating this as the A-10 games go final today?
Thanks in advance.
|
I'll run an update when the 2:00 games go final.
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 02:23 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
Thank you LIBob
|
03-03-2018, 04:21 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Through 2PM games:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 66.16% 33.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.34
Davidson 0.00% 33.84% 66.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.66
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 56.28% 28.73% 0.00% 14.99% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.74
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 28.73% 52.42% 18.85% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.90
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.99% 18.85% 28.73% 37.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.89
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 37.43% 18.85% 43.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.06
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.99% 28.73% 15.94% 40.34% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.82
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.34% 18.58% 12.32% 0.00% 28.76% 0.00% 0.00% 9.58
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 23.39% 76.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.77
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.69% 11.07% 71.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.54
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 28.76% 71.24% 0.00% 0.00% 11.71
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 59.96% 40.04% 13.40
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.04% 59.96% 13.60
Flyers win will avoid Wednesday night.
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 04:23 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
Assuming a Flyers win, what has to happen for Dayton to be the #10?
|
03-03-2018, 04:34 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 05:08 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Through 3PM game:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Rhode Island 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
St Bonaventure 0.00% 65.93% 34.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.34
Davidson 0.00% 34.07% 65.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.66
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 56.96% 28.34% 0.00% 14.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.72
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 28.34% 52.29% 19.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.91
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.70% 19.37% 28.34% 37.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.89
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 37.59% 19.37% 43.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.05
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.70% 28.34% 0.00% 56.96% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.99
Dayton 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 56.96% 25.37% 17.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.61
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.67% 82.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.82
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 11.00
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12.00
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 59.39% 40.61% 13.41
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.61% 59.39% 13.59
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 05:19 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,345
Thanks: 469
Thanked 1,629 Times in 765 Posts
|
|
If we win one game in the A10 Tourney this year it will be one more than last year. When we were the #1 seed and lost to Davidson and had to play Wichita State in a horrible draw as a result.
|
03-03-2018, 05:22 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
8/9 means we likely play URI and EITHER Davidson or St. Bonaventure. #10 possibly means SBU AND DAVIDSON AND RHODE ISLAND
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
03-03-2018, 05:49 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Richmond loses to Mason, UD = 8 and we play Richmond on Thursday.
Richmond beats Mason, UD = 9 and we play VCU on Thursday.
And as BRob2Perryman3 states, we then play Rhode Island on Friday if we win.
|
03-03-2018, 05:50 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Code:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
HHH : RIs Dav SBo GMa SLo SJo VCU Day Ric Duq GWa LSa Mas For
HHA : RIs SBo Dav GMa SJo VCU SLo Day Ric Duq GWa LSa Mas For
HAH : RIs Dav SBo GMa SLo SJo VCU Day Ric Duq GWa LSa For Mas
HAA : RIs SBo Dav GMa SJo VCU SLo Day Ric Duq GWa LSa For Mas
AHH : RIs Dav SBo SLo SJo Ric GMa VCU Day Duq GWa LSa Mas For
AHA : RIs SBo Dav SJo GMa SLo Ric VCU Day Duq GWa LSa Mas For
AAH : RIs Dav SBo SLo SJo Ric GMa VCU Day Duq GWa LSa For Mas
AAA : RIs SBo Dav SJo GMa SLo Ric VCU Day Duq GWa LSa For Mas
The first 3 columns are the winners of the 3 remaining games today:
Game 1: Richmond @ George Mason
Game 2: Duquesne @ Massachusetts
Game 3: Bonnies @ Saint Louis
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
Last edited by Figgie123; 03-03-2018 at 06:39 PM..
|
03-03-2018, 06:33 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Are we locked into the 8/9 game?
Posted via Mobile Device
|
03-03-2018, 06:36 PM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,512
Thanks: 4,692
Thanked 6,172 Times in 2,321 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
Are we locked into the 8/9 game?
Posted via Mobile Device
|
Yes we are. Playing either VCU or Richmond.
|
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 06:58 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: #FlyerNation
Posts: 2,580
Thanks: 2,275
Thanked 2,309 Times in 1,119 Posts
|
|
Wow. Go Mason. Tillman is a pain in the ass.
|
Mad Props to BRob2Perryman3 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-03-2018, 07:43 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
Wow. Go Mason. Tillman is a pain in the ass.
|
Wtf. Richmond up 45-32 on GM. The A10 is so friggin unpredictable this year.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
03-05-2018, 08:50 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Did anyone else see this:
Flyers 1-8 against our side of the bracket.
7-2 against the other side.
I am calling it now. We beat VCU on Thursday then knock off URI on Friday and f'n St Joes beats us on Saturday.
|
03-05-2018, 04:39 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,345
Thanks: 469
Thanked 1,629 Times in 765 Posts
|
|
Unless the tournament gets moved to UD Arena, we are just toast. Cannot win outside of our own building this year.
|
Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|