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01-14-2022, 01:32 PM
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NET analysis
I took a little time to dig a little deeper into where UD falls in the latest NET rankings. Currently, UD is 92. Fair enough, our guys have the three really ugly losses.
There is some good and bad in the resume relative to other teams. Assuming UD goes 13-5 in conference and gets to the conference final, it will be very interesting to see how the committee looks at UD with a 23-11 record (8-5, 13-5, 2-1).
I don’t want to try to estimate which games UD wins/loses for the remaining A10 schedule but just taking a snapshot from today.
The Good:
UD is currently 5-3 in Q1/Q2 (2-0, 3-3 62.5 winning %)
Next closest team with 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 81 Miami (1-1, 4-2 62.5%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins and 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 57 Memphis (2-2,3-3,50%)
Next closest team with greater than 62.5% is 42 Colorado State (1-1,3-0, 80%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins, 5 Q1/Q2 wins and >62.5% is 37 WVU (2-2, 3-0, 71%)
The Bad:
Next closest team with TWO Q4 losses is 121 6-6 Buffalo (4-2, Q4)
Next closest team with at least 3 Q4 losses is 169 6-7 Niagara (5-4, Q4)
All of this is mostly just interesting at this point. It shows how much the 3 losses have hurt UD this year. That said, going back to my initial end of season scenario, I think the committee would really have a hard time measuring UD. Obviously, UD would climb quite a bit from its current 92 and, I would argue would have to be in consideration.
So, what does the committee value? For years, I’ve heard it quality wins. UD would have over 10 Q1/Q2 wins and better winning % than many of the middling Power 5 schools.
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01-14-2022, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
It shows how much the 3 losses have hurt UD this year.
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Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
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01-14-2022, 05:31 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
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Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
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01-14-2022, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
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Start playing that game, and I'd counter with a proposal to "give back" Kansas in a close loss, but turn VCU into a close win in return. Again, using same said projection tool, it puts us almost right back in the exact same spot if you trade Kansas for VCU. It really is the 3 early losses that move the needle the most. Don't dig that hole, and sudden you don't need miracle wins over top 5 teams so long as you're taking care of business at home.
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01-14-2022, 07:56 PM
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01-14-2022, 10:42 PM
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I think we are a long-shot for the NCAA Tourney as an at-large. Everything has to go right and we have to go on an unbelievable tear in the conference.
That said, we are a totally different team than the team at the beginning of the season. We have developed enormously. But the losses still count, so it is what it is. I don't think it is out of the question that we could win the conference tournament though. A good indicator of our chances will be if we can show some toughness on the road in conference. Really good teams win on the road. I'm not sure if we will pull that level of improvement off yet.
I cautioned people who were losing their minds at the beginning of the season to wait about ten games to see what develops. It happens a lot with teams this young. There was no guarantee that the talent we had was really good, but undeveloped. It could have been lack of talent and lack of development, but it thankfully turns out that good talent was there. Patience, when you have a team this young!
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01-15-2022, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
This is rose colored delusion.
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It is a hypothetical. You know, like the one you used in the same post about losing to Kansas.
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01-17-2022, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
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Disaster? That's a hot take, agenda post there. Neutral wins over #40 Belmont and #84 Miami. Home win over #39 Va. Tech. The only thing disastrous this year was the first 2 weeks. Unfortunately, it's part of our resume.
We're 5-3 in Q1/Q2. A loss to Kansas and we're 4-4. Either is more than respectable (good side of bubble). Just going to be tough to hide those Q4 losses.
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01-21-2022, 11:30 AM
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Gee…others are starting to realize this team may not need to win the A10 tournament to get an NCAA bid. While the Net is very opaque, I seem to recall there are factors such as offense and defense efficiency that are included in the calculation.
Game against George Mason is huge. These are the kind of games that can move a team up 4 spots or down 4 spots. Continue to win with great efficiency on both ends of the floor.
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01-21-2022, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
Gee…others are starting to realize this team may not need to win the A10 tournament to get an NCAA bid. While the Net is very opaque, I seem to recall there are factors such as offense and defense efficiency that are included in the calculation.
Game against George Mason is huge. These are the kind of games that can move a team up 4 spots or down 4 spots. Continue to win with great efficiency on both ends of the floor.
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Unfortunately, I do not think we are near an at large yet. Have to keep winning. With the 3 early losses, we would probably need to get into the low 40s or lower. Keep winning and we will get there, but we can't lose to an A10 anchor if we want an at large bid. Don't get me wrong, I didn't think we would be 69th at this point after our first 4 games.
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01-21-2022, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
Gee…others are starting to realize this team may not need to win the A10 tournament to get an NCAA bid. While the Net is very opaque, I seem to recall there are factors such as offense and defense efficiency that are included in the calculation.
Game against George Mason is huge. These are the kind of games that can move a team up 4 spots or down 4 spots. Continue to win with great efficiency on both ends of the floor.
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Shhh don’t let John Bedell hear you talking like that. He makes it abundantly clear each postgame there is 0 chance for an at large and sounds like everybody who is anybody knows that.
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01-21-2022, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
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Yeah, that Miami win is garbage. Just because they're in the ACC doesn't mean anything. It would only mean something if they were at the top of the ACC.
Oh look, they're at the top of the ACC. Wins over UNC and Duke. They're probably a top 1/3 team by season's end, but it's not like we beat GA Tech or NC State.
Originally Posted by maddog07
I think we find out a lot on Tuesday.
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So, what did we find out after a 20 point blowout of StB? Anything?
Or, will you retort like the economists on TV do, that every report is still 1 report away from "telling us what we really need to know, we'll monitor the situation".
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02-03-2022, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
I think we find out a lot on Tuesday.
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Yeah, that Miami win is garbage. Just because they're in the ACC doesn't mean anything. It would only mean something if they were at the top of the ACC.
Oh look, they're at the top of the ACC. Wins over UNC and Duke. They're probably a top 1/3 team by season's end, but it's not like we beat GA Tech or NC State.
So, what did we find out after a 20 point blowout of StB? Anything?
Or, will you retort like the economists on TV do, that every report is still 1 report away from "telling us what we really need to know, we'll monitor the situation".
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Miami still tied for 2nd in the ACC at 8-3 in conference and we have blowout wins of St.B and VCU.
Did we "find anything out" yet, or still looking? Man it gets quiet after wins.
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02-03-2022, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Man it gets quiet after wins.
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It gets quiet after some losses too. You could hear a pin drop after the Mason loss.
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01-14-2022, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
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It's not officially sanctioned or possessing of insider wisdom, or anything, but the projection tool at barttorvik has shown itself to be fairly decent at predicting the field of 68, if not always nailing the placement on the ol' S-curve.
I fiddled with it over the weekend, and I would absolutely go along with "win 2 of those 3 to get back on the bubble, win all 3 to be solidly in." I don't think just winning 1 is enough to make up 20 places... meantime, changing all 3 outcomes on the projection machine slots us in as a rock solid at-large (as high as the final 7 seed, no worse than an 8 seed).
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?...22&team=Dayton [remember to choose "DynamaRank" for best results, I think you also have to do a "Drop" on an extra Fordham game that showed up as a result of rescheduling]
As it stands, any realistic remainder of outcomes makes us an Autobid or Bust. A 6 game stretch in February is hard to view as much more than a 3-3 breakeven, but if we're going to overperform realistic expectations, that's where the wins will have to come to put us back in the at-large discussion. The next few games and the final 4 games just don't have enough juice even were we to sweep them (in fact, outside of that 6 game key stretch against good opponents, we will lose even more ground if we drop more than 1 or 2).
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01-14-2022, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
I took a little time to dig a little deeper into where UD falls in the latest NET rankings. Currently, UD is 92. Fair enough, our guys have the three really ugly losses.
There is some good and bad in the resume relative to other teams. Assuming UD goes 13-5 in conference and gets to the conference final, it will be very interesting to see how the committee looks at UD with a 23-11 record (8-5, 13-5, 2-1).
I don’t want to try to estimate which games UD wins/loses for the remaining A10 schedule but just taking a snapshot from today.
The Good:
UD is currently 5-3 in Q1/Q2 (2-0, 3-3 62.5 winning %)
Next closest team with 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 81 Miami (1-1, 4-2 62.5%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins and 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 57 Memphis (2-2,3-3,50%)
Next closest team with greater than 62.5% is 42 Colorado State (1-1,3-0, 80%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins, 5 Q1/Q2 wins and >62.5% is 37 WVU (2-2, 3-0, 71%)
The Bad:
Next closest team with TWO Q4 losses is 121 6-6 Buffalo (4-2, Q4)
Next closest team with at least 3 Q4 losses is 169 6-7 Niagara (5-4, Q4)
All of this is mostly just interesting at this point. It shows how much the 3 losses have hurt UD this year. That said, going back to my initial end of season scenario, I think the committee would really have a hard time measuring UD. Obviously, UD would climb quite a bit from its current 92 and, I would argue would have to be in consideration.
So, what does the committee value? For years, I’ve heard it quality wins. UD would have over 10 Q1/Q2 wins and better winning % than many of the middling Power 5 schools.
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Committee has been consistent that quality wins will override bad losses, but you need enough quality wins for that to occur. 10 Q1/2 wins would be pretty impressive.
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01-14-2022, 02:39 PM
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Dayton
should not be an NCAA team this year unless they win the A-10 championship in tourney play. They are not at-large eligible IMHO. Of course this could change if they win the rest of their A-10 games.
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01-14-2022, 03:02 PM
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I guarantee, in early March, the pundits will talk about how “weak” the bubble is. It happens every year. If you’re on the bubble, you have warts. Our’s are big hairy warts but we also would have quite a few quality wins in the scenario I outlined. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the chances. The losses were all very early with a team that has 11 “Freshmen”.
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01-15-2022, 09:07 PM
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You make shots, you can win on any given night. If Lipscomb shoots 59% and goes 10-18 from trey against us again, we're taking another L even now.
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01-15-2022, 10:19 PM
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Saint Louis and VCU on the road will help us figure out how good we really are.
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01-16-2022, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
Saint Louis and VCU on the road will help us figure out how good we really are.
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I think we find out a lot on Tuesday.
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01-16-2022, 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
Saint Louis and VCU on the road will help us figure out how good we really are.
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This is how I'm choosing to approach it, too. That 6 game stretch starting in February will tell us whether we can realistically beat the rest of the A-10's good teams in succession, and thus, whether we can realistically look to the autobid or not.
I think a 14-4 A-10 team deserves to be in the at-large discussion, but because of our, ummmm, unique circumstances (3 buy game losses), we'd also have to get at least 2 quality wins in the A-10 tourney to get on the right side of that discussion (and 2 quality tourney wins means making the finals, because our first game will NOT be quality). Maybe 15-3, with no more losses at home, puts us on the right side of the discussion before the tourney even starts; but I know 13-5 requires the autobid.
I'm a fan of breaking the season into "chunklets" and looking at necessary outcomes for groups of games, rather than freaking out over individual games. We have 3 more games in our current "chunklet," and I think we can all agree that winning out -- 3-0 -- is probably necessary to keep that 14-4-or-better dream alive. After that, it's a 6 game chunklet (including those SLU and VCU games on the road; also @ URI) where we need to go 4-2, but 3-3 is way more likely (and would eliminate our margin of error for the final 4 games).
But I digress. It all falls apart if we can't beat SBU on Tuesday. So let's do that.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-16-2022, 09:29 AM
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They have 5 wins against teams with a higher NET than SBU. SBU is only 3 spots higher than UD. It will be a tough game, but it’s very winnable.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-16-2022, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer
They have 5 wins against teams with a higher NET than SBU. SBU is only 3 spots higher than UD. It will be a tough game, but it’s very winnable.
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Actually after yesterday’s game the Flyers jumped to 84 in the NET and now are 9 spots ahead of SBU.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-16-2022, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer
They have 5 wins against teams with a higher NET than SBU. SBU is only 3 spots higher than UD. It will be a tough game, but it’s very winnable.
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I watched SBU beat VCU. They are very good offensively, and have a very veteran squad. I think they will hold their composure at UD Arena, in a very composed loss.
SBU spaces their players really well on offense, and they pass to the open man. They had a ton of wide open shots against VCU because they share well. They handled VCU's press easily with good veteran point guard play. They have a big who should match up well against Holmes. This should be a tough game. They are just a well-rounded team.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Last edited by Fudd; 01-16-2022 at 07:34 PM..
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01-16-2022, 01:33 PM
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I just want a top four finish. NET doesn’t matter. Also remember that regardless of whatever committee members say, I think we had our one shot at being one of the last four in. Let’s win three games in three days in DC. This team has already proven it can do that.
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01-16-2022, 07:13 PM
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Thanks for the update, TA111. SBU won the game against VCU at the stripe. We do a good job of moving our feet and a sliding foul trouble. We know that SBU is experienced. We knew this would be a tough game at the start of the season. I like our chances better now than then.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-21-2022, 12:00 PM
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Based on where we are now, I think we just need to have a robust answer to this simple question by the Committee in March: what have you done for me lately?
The trajectory of late looks very promising. We just need to keep it up. Barring injury, I am very optimistic about our chances.
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01-21-2022, 12:51 PM
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The committee is aware that the Flyers had 3 losses at the beginning of the season. They also know that UD is one of the youngest teams in the country. If they can win the games they should, pick up a win at VCU or St Louis, and avoid another bad loss, they have a real shot. Others have mentioned that their backs are up against the wall. Indeed, they are. But, they’re at least still standing at the wall. They’re not buried yet.
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01-21-2022, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer
The committee is aware that the Flyers had 3 losses at the beginning of the season. They also know that UD is one of the youngest teams in the country.
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Does the committee factor in the experience level of the team?
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01-21-2022, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Does the committee factor in the experience level of the team?
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I think the committee WILL look at UD as the team they are in March, not the team they were in November. It seems like every year they pluck a “hot team” and put them in when their numbers are below the supposed cut.
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01-21-2022, 01:32 PM
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I’m saying that UD’s 3 early losses can be seen through a more understanding lens. There will be committee members who see Katz’ article with Mali and Deuce in his top 20 freshmen. We are not the only ones aware of the much improved play, and why it so much improved. My point is that we shouldn’t discount their accomplishments because we’ve seen non P5 teams get the shaft so many times. Our situation is different.
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01-21-2022, 04:13 PM
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The committee is allowed to -- if not encouraged to -- weigh recent games more heavily than older outcomes AND to grant leeway for any mitigating circumstances (most notably, injuries to key players causing anomalous losses).
Now, in practice, this really only seems to ever help power-5 teams, and other teams do not get nearly as much consideration... or so it has always seemed through the selective perception of being a Flyer Fan. But the mechanism *is* suppossedly there to grant us some wiggle room if we start screaming from the rooftops NOW that "Hey, committee Mali was hurt and wasn't up to full speed until after those 4 losses, so don't count them please!"
Otherwise, the only way the at-large is on the table is simply by winning, winning, winning. Realistically, 13-5 in the A-10 is what one would predict, and it would put UD on the wrong side of the bubble. But outplay those expectations? We could end up dancing without the autobid.
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01-22-2022, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia
The committee is allowed to -- if not encouraged to -- weigh recent games more heavily than older outcomes AND to grant leeway for any mitigating circumstances (most notably, injuries to key players causing anomalous losses).
Now, in practice, this really only seems to ever help power-5 teams, and other teams do not get nearly as much consideration... or so it has always seemed through the selective perception of being a Flyer Fan. But the mechanism *is* suppossedly there to grant us some wiggle room if we start screaming from the rooftops NOW that "Hey, committee Mali was hurt and wasn't up to full speed until after those 4 losses, so don't count them please!"
Otherwise, the only way the at-large is on the table is simply by winning, winning, winning. Realistically, 13-5 in the A-10 is what one would predict, and it would put UD on the wrong side of the bubble. But outplay those expectations? We could end up dancing without the autobid.
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The committee actually stated in 2018, when it selected UCLA to the first four, that it weighed its last 10 games because they finished strong.
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01-21-2022, 07:16 PM
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There is no way the committee is even remotely going to consider Mali's preseason injury.
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01-21-2022, 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
There is no way the committee is even remotely going to consider Mali's preseason injury.
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When UD has 2 of the top 20 Freshman in the country, possibly up to 10 Q1/Q2 wins, and a greater than .500 winning percentage against Q1/Q2, I guarantee the selection committee will discuss UD and a discussion would ensue about the youth early in the season AND Mali’s injury.
There are a lot of games between now and then. Let’s see how they do. And even then, it may not happen but I think it is foolish to think UD wouldn’t be considered with a 23–11 record (8-5, 13-5, 2-1 in A10 tourney); which included wins over Kansas, Va Tech, Miami, Belmont, and a whole lot of Q2 wins in the A10. My whole point has been the 3 ugly warts are not a fate accompli.
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01-22-2022, 01:39 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
There is no way the committee is even remotely going to consider Mali's preseason injury.
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pretty sure what they WILL DEFO consider
is that this is arguably the youngest team in
the nation... and will look at how the Flyers
played as the season progressed....
seems common sense approach to me...
its not how you start as much as it is
how did you finish, that they will consider
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01-22-2022, 11:00 AM
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Mali had an off-season injury but has played in every game and averages about 30 minutes per game. The committee is not considering his off-season injury that hasn't kept him out of any games.
Isn't being a young team our choice? If we don't want to be young shouldn't we recruit differently? Playing better at the end of the season than early on is one thing but saying, well they lost because they are young doesn't seem to make sense to me.
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01-22-2022, 11:28 AM
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no one is saying they lost the early games
solely because they are young.. I think
most of us realize it was a contributing factor,
not just being young but with new faces and
CAG seeing which combinations work best
together....
it makes absolute sense to me, and just
don't understand how one cannot understand.
all this is just going around in a circle, though..
the main point, is, we are now back in control
of our destiny, no matter what your belief....
that is a good thing,
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01-22-2022, 12:11 PM
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You know what the committee does consider? MONEY. You can say otherwise but I guarantee it.
And what might, potentially, be good for that? A first round matchup that has the youngest team of rising stars knocking off some power and generating a whole lot of buzz. Lots of "what could have been" human interest stories from the canceled tournament. AG, who makes for good TV as a likeable human being.
We're not there yet. But, it's a mark in our favor if we're on the dividing line.
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01-23-2022, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
You know what the committee does consider? MONEY. You can say otherwise but I guarantee it.
And what might, potentially, be good for that? A first round matchup that has the youngest team of rising stars knocking off some power and generating a whole lot of buzz. Lots of "what could have been" human interest stories from the canceled tournament. AG, who makes for good TV as a likeable human being.
We're not there yet. But, it's a mark in our favor if we're on the dividing line.
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Actually, IMO, if any team is going to get the special (what a story/sympathy) treatment from a recent past season it's going to be VCU. Even though we were ranked 3rd, we were still one of 68 teams that got screwed out of the tournament. The national media wasn't focused on "poor Dayton". But last year, it was all "Poor VCU".
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01-22-2022, 09:37 PM
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Baloney. We are not any more favored as a matchup than most teams. Few outside our small circle know or care. It’s wins and losses, margin and strength of schedule. Very little else is relevant.
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01-23-2022, 03:19 AM
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tonight's loss isn't the end of the world,
still more games...
I said this week the most important game
on the schedule by far... is the next team
we face on the schedule.. I was right then, and it is still true.
one step back, we need to respond...
plenty of time and games left. we need to
get very focused and not look further than
the next team up seems to me.
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01-23-2022, 08:52 AM
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Uplifting and righteous!
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01-23-2022, 12:19 PM
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From Busting Brackets
Dayton, Texas, Nevada, Southern Utah headline Sunday Mailbag
". . . The Flyers must beat LaSalle and Fordham now especially after losing to George Mason their last game . . . Their NET ranking currently sits at 66 which is right on the cusp of where it needs to be to feel safe for the tournament. The Flyers are currently firmly on the Bubble and will control their own destiny going forward."
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01-23-2022, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
Dayton, Texas, Nevada, Southern Utah headline Sunday Mailbag
". . . The Flyers must beat LaSalle and Fordham now especially after losing to George Mason their last game . . . Their NET ranking currently sits at 66 which is right on the cusp of where it needs to be to feel safe for the tournament. The Flyers are currently firmly on the Bubble and will control their own destiny going forward."
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Remarkable.
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01-24-2022, 12:44 AM
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and true....
we still control our own destiny, and don't
nave to rely on other games... does the
team want it enough or not...
are we up to the task at hand, this was one
game... wish it didn't happen, but it did...
how do we respond?
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02-03-2022, 08:39 AM
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Dayton went from 76 to 60 in the NET rankings after the VCU beatdown
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02-03-2022, 10:02 AM
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This is a massive jump. Winning at St. Louis on Saturday would do wonders! From my very short time looking at the rankings as a stand this morning, I want to see a bunch of mountain west teams beat each other up, and I want to see Belmont and of course Kansas, continue to win.
Originally Posted by Runnin' Rebel
Dayton went from 76 to 60 in the NET rankings after the VCU beatdown
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02-03-2022, 10:34 AM
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next up St Louis,
this would be another good win...
they have a NET ranking of 59 and
playing us at their home court...
keep it going, winning Sat would
give us another bump in the NET
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02-03-2022, 10:57 AM
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I’ve read on this board that a number of 66 could get us into the tournament. I’m not feeling safe until we are in the 40s. Also of concern to me is that one, maybe two Atlantic 10 teams could be in the top 50, the second weekend of March. Quad 1 winds on a neutral floor require a team to be in the top 50. Other conferences could collect multiple quad 1 wins in their respective tournaments. We will not have that luxury.
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02-03-2022, 11:18 AM
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Keeping in mind that craptastic one-bid conferences account for about 20 spots in the NCAA tourney, you're really not "on the bubble" until you're in the top 50 of NET. And not feeling you're better than a coin flip until you're top 40.
That seems to be lost on a lot of the analysis I'm reading, where anyone in the 60s of NET is already on the bubble. I mean, yeah, there are also other resume items they look at, but NET seems to be the "gatekeeper" metric, and until you're on the right side of it, your other qualifications matter not.
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02-03-2022, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia
Keeping in mind that craptastic one-bid conferences account for about 20 spots in the NCAA tourney, you're really not "on the bubble" until you're in the top 50 of NET. And not feeling you're better than a coin flip until you're top 40.
That seems to be lost on a lot of the analysis I'm reading, where anyone in the 60s of NET is already on the bubble. I mean, yeah, there are also other resume items they look at, but NET seems to be the "gatekeeper" metric, and until you're on the right side of it, your other qualifications matter not.
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Good chance the A10 is one of those craptastic one-bid conferences this year.
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02-03-2022, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
Good chance the A10 is one of those craptastic one-bid conferences this year.
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I think the A10 could get 3 bids, depending on how things go down the stretch for the top teams and who wins the conference tournament.
Every year, we hear noise about the A10 being a one bid league, and without fail the A10 gets multiple bids.
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02-03-2022, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer
I think the A10 could get 3 bids, depending on how things go down the stretch for the top teams and who wins the conference tournament.
Every year, we hear noise about the A10 being a one bid league, and without fail the A10 gets multiple bids.
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Put me fully in the camp that says if they win out they are likely in without the autobid. I know John B on FF has offered to buy beachfront property in AZ from people who believe that (he can’t even get that right) but there are too many quality wins and strong metrics for us to not be in the field.
I gotta believe we’d be somewhere in the 40s if they win out having gained likely 2 more quad1 wins and 2 more quad2 wins. Has any team won the A10 and not received a bid?
I’m not saying 12-0 to end the end of the conference is going to happen, just that if it does I believe we are likely in and for sure at least strongly under consideration.
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02-03-2022, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer
I think the A10 could get 3 bids, depending on how things go down the stretch for the top teams and who wins the conference tournament.
Every year, we hear noise about the A10 being a one bid league, and without fail the A10 gets multiple bids.
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It only keeps happening because the one at large resume in the conference hasn't been winning the tournament.
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02-03-2022, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
It only keeps happening because the one at large resume in the conference hasn't been winning the tournament.
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And the odds of it happening again this year are very high.
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02-04-2022, 12:49 AM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
It only keeps happening because the one at large resume in the conference hasn't been winning the tournament.
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It might be getting dangerously close to happening, but it hasn't yet. I'm pretty sure that last season, both VCU and Bonnies were going no matter who won the tourney and if some besides them had won, we would've had 3 bids. And it possibly might have happened in 2020 but we'll never know. Before that, the A10 has had at least two teams safely in before the conference tourney started.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-03-2022, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia
Keeping in mind that craptastic one-bid conferences account for about 20 spots in the NCAA tourney, you're really not "on the bubble" until you're in the top 50 of NET. And not feeling you're better than a coin flip until you're top 40.
That seems to be lost on a lot of the analysis I'm reading, where anyone in the 60s of NET is already on the bubble. I mean, yeah, there are also other resume items they look at, but NET seems to be the "gatekeeper" metric, and until you're on the right side of it, your other qualifications matter not.
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Unless you are in a P5/BE conference then you are squarely on the bubble when you are in the 60's.
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02-03-2022, 01:09 PM
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Not NET, but Trovik has jumped UD up to 43 after last night's game (was mid 50s in a cluster with VCU & SLU). His system now projects UD as the 2nd team left out (ie, just below the first four) while SLU is currently in the 5th spot below the cut line.
To say that the next game could be huge for UD is an understatement. Torvik has UD favored in all remaining games, save the next one @ SLU, but has them picking up 1 additional lost based upon probabilities, so 14-4 in conference.
For fun, I went ahead and simmed them lossing @ SLU then winning out, then losing in the semi's of the A10 to SLU (1-1 in A10) That projects them to be 3 spots above the first 4 and safely in the field.
Kind of crazy given the start, and with such a young team I suspect there will be some bumps in the road, but if they can pull that off, what a story.
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02-03-2022, 02:02 PM
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I think we are getting ourselves "into the NCAA Tournament conversation" now. But we still need to finish the season very strong and probably have a good showing in the A10 Tournament.
Those early three losses at home are hard to live down.
I do feel we are a completely different team due to our youngsters developing and learning their roles. But the season still includes those losses.
If we do find our way in, I'm betting that there are not many teams that would prefer to face a low NCAA Tournament seed like the Flyers would produce this year. This team has gotten so much better as the year progressed.
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02-03-2022, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
Not NET, but Trovik has jumped UD up to 43 after last night's game (was mid 50s in a cluster with VCU & SLU). His system now projects UD as the 2nd team left out (ie, just below the first four) while SLU is currently in the 5th spot below the cut line.
To say that the next game could be huge for UD is an understatement. Torvik has UD favored in all remaining games, save the next one @ SLU, but has them picking up 1 additional lost based upon probabilities, so 14-4 in conference.
For fun, I went ahead and simmed them lossing @ SLU then winning out, then losing in the semi's of the A10 to SLU (1-1 in A10) That projects them to be 3 spots above the first 4 and safely in the field.
Kind of crazy given the start, and with such a young team I suspect there will be some bumps in the road, but if they can pull that off, what a story.
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Warren Nolan has us losing 2 more, SLU and RI. Is this the most up and down team in UD history? Maybe. Would be a shame to beat Kansas and have an epic, once-in-10-years 30 point win at VCU, and then miss the ncaat.
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...le?team=Dayton
Last edited by ud2; 02-03-2022 at 02:20 PM..
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02-03-2022, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
Not NET, but Trovik has jumped UD up to 43 after last night's game (was mid 50s in a cluster with VCU & SLU). His system now projects UD as the 2nd team left out (ie, just below the first four) while SLU is currently in the 5th spot below the cut line.
To say that the next game could be huge for UD is an understatement. Torvik has UD favored in all remaining games, save the next one @ SLU, but has them picking up 1 additional lost based upon probabilities, so 14-4 in conference.
For fun, I went ahead and simmed them lossing @ SLU then winning out, then losing in the semi's of the A10 to SLU (1-1 in A10) That projects them to be 3 spots above the first 4 and safely in the field.
Kind of crazy given the start, and with such a young team I suspect there will be some bumps in the road, but if they can pull that off, what a story.
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Lunardi currently has the Flyers as his 9th team out.
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02-03-2022, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Lunardi currently has the Flyers as his 9th team out.
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We are getting 3 votes on www.bracketmatrix.com, we appear to be the 12th team out, I am not sure if that was before or after the VCU game.
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02-03-2022, 03:12 PM
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http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
The Sagarin predictor has us losing at SLU by 2.85.
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02-03-2022, 03:45 PM
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What was the predictor for VCU? ESPN gave VCU a 75% chance of winning.
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02-03-2022, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan
What was the predictor for VCU? ESPN gave VCU a 75% chance of winning.
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Those odds were terrible. I got UD +5 when it opened was eventually bet down to +2.5.. Then when I heard they were missing Williams I doubled up on the ML.
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02-03-2022, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan
What was the predictor for VCU? ESPN gave VCU a 75% chance of winning.
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I googled it, but I couldn't find any archive of Sagarin's daily ratings, so I don't know what the predictor was.
The line was UD +3.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college...fm/team/dayton
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02-03-2022, 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan
What was the predictor for VCU? ESPN gave VCU a 75% chance of winning.
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId/401365825
ESPN giving us a 32.1% chance of winning at SLU.
This is obviously a huge game, we need this one badly. We need every game from here on out.
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02-04-2022, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan
What was the predictor for VCU? ESPN gave VCU a 75% chance of winning.
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Torvik had UD losing @ VCU by something around 3 points give or take half a point; SLU was a similar story (its now down to 2.2 points after Wednesday nights games.). Of course Torvik can't factor in things like William's injury but not statistically based model would have predicted a 30 point blowout victory under such circumstances.
Of note, on Torvik's ratings, UD has slowly, but continually climbed up in offensive efficiency. They are currently 87th, after being well over 100 for a good chunk of the early season. In their last 10 games, they are 67th on offense and 4th on defense. The team is improving, just hope the down games don't cost them any predicted wins and the "up" games provide an unexpected road victory or two. Surely there is more of the rollercoaster to be ridden
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02-03-2022, 04:56 PM
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Serious question, I wonder if Bracketologists do not even Factor Dayton into the last four in thinking the committee will no longer put us in the first four after our Coffe Coffe neutral Coffe Coffe game against Boise State several years back?
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02-03-2022, 07:13 PM
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Davidson winning out and beating them in the last game of the season would be a nice feather in the cap.
Maybe the NET is below some other bubble teams but having wins over Kansas, Miami, Davidson and Belmont might make up for that
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02-04-2022, 12:26 AM
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If Kansas ended up being a top 5 NET win. Would that win let UD at 55 in the NET jump someone in the high 40s whose best win is in say the 30s?
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02-04-2022, 07:03 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
If Kansas ended up being a top 5 NET win. Would that win let UD at 55 in the NET jump someone in the high 40s whose best win is in say the 30s?
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Depends on who that team is. A team that got real hot in their conference tournament but lost in the finals, from the power five, no. San Francisco? Yes.
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02-04-2022, 08:25 AM
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The statistics slowly reflect improvement based on recent games but cannot predict future improvement. By example, the statistics cannot predict Elvis’ increased positive impact on the team. This is the fun of being a fan when your team is improving at a rate that beats the statistical trends. The tough part as a fan is predicting the ceiling or that point where the improvement curve flattens. It’s exciting to consider where UD would be in the NET rankings based on current play. Around 30? 20-30?
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02-04-2022, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer
The statistics slowly reflect improvement based on recent games but cannot predict future improvement. By example, the statistics cannot predict Elvis’ increased positive impact on the team. This is the fun of being a fan when your team is improving at a rate that beats the statistical trends. The tough part as a fan is predicting the ceiling or that point where the improvement curve flattens. It’s exciting to consider where UD would be in the NET rankings based on current play. Around 30? 20-30?
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Very true. Which is why I love how Torvik breaks down his stats. You can take any team stat and show how it has tracked all season long, or do it over a specific range of games. I'd imagine someone more astute than myself could take that information and find holes in betting lines that they could take advantage of over the course of a season.
You can see how Dayton has drastically improved their offense as the season has progressed, but also how they have barely improved their turnover rate, while things like free throw rate have gotten worse. All things we can see with our own eyes since we follow them closely but things you could dig into b/w 2 teams you don't follow as closely.
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02-04-2022, 09:14 AM
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Unlike pretty much every other year I can remember, if we get right on the bubble I think we'll make it.
We had 3 horrific losses right at the beginning of the season. We have a bunch of really solid wins which we usually lack or only have 1 or 2. The committee despite what they say publicly does seem to give teams more of a pass for early bad losses vs late.
If they are comparing resumes with the teams on the bubble I don't see how they could say anyone would be playing better than UD. That's if we finish out the season with no more than 2 loses including the tournament.
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02-04-2022, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
Unlike pretty much every other year I can remember, if we get right on the bubble I think we'll make it.
We had 3 horrific losses right at the beginning of the season. We have a bunch of really solid wins which we usually lack or only have 1 or 2. The committee despite what they say publicly does seem to give teams more of a pass for early bad losses vs late.
If they are comparing resumes with the teams on the bubble I don't see how they could say anyone would be playing better than UD. That's if we finish out the season with no more than 2 loses including the tournament.
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So, if I follow you, sounds like you are saying if we lose 2 or fewer the rest of the way we will be an at large. However, one of those would have to be in the A10 tourney, otherwise we get the auto-bid and thus bubble talk is moot. So we basically have to go 9-0 or 8-1 the remainder of our conference schedule. I think we have a better chance of winning the conference tourney than going 8-1 or 9-0 in the remaining regular season games. But hope we can do both!
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02-04-2022, 01:19 PM
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DDN:
ESPN’s Lunardi sees Dayton as a team on rise in at-large discussion
"In summary, Dayton (15-7, 7-2) still has slim hopes of earning an at-large berth entering the second half of the Atlantic 10 Conference schedule. The other most famous bracketologists aren’t even talking about Dayton — not yet at least."
https://www.daytondailynews.com/spor...IMKV53OG5TM3M/
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02-04-2022, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by 312to937
So, if I follow you, sounds like you are saying if we lose 2 or fewer the rest of the way we will be an at large. However, one of those would have to be in the A10 tourney, otherwise we get the auto-bid and thus bubble talk is moot. So we basically have to go 9-0 or 8-1 the remainder of our conference schedule. I think we have a better chance of winning the conference tourney than going 8-1 or 9-0 in the remaining regular season games. But hope we can do both!
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I don't think we can lose 3 games and still be on the bubble, but who knows. I'm just stating that if we're in the mix with a bunch of teams with close resumes we have a better argument than most years to get in. As you said though that requires playing extremely well down the stretch.
Saturday I think is a must win game for an at large.
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02-04-2022, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
I don't think we can lose 3 games and still be on the bubble, but who knows. I'm just stating that if we're in the mix with a bunch of teams with close resumes we have a better argument than most years to get in. As you said though that requires playing extremely well down the stretch.
Saturday I think is a must win game for an at large.
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If they need to go 8-1, Is it better to lose at St Louis or at RI or St Joe’s?
I think they need to beat Davidson and then either St Louis or Richmond plus all remaining games to be solidly considered.
Beating All 3 of those and losing to Rhody is likely better but no losing to St Joe’s
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02-04-2022, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
If they need to go 8-1, Is it better to lose at St Louis or at RI or St Joe’s?
I think they need to beat Davidson and then either St Louis or Richmond plus all remaining games to be solidly considered.
Beating All 3 of those and losing to Rhody is likely better but no losing to St Joe’s
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May I also remind people Tom Gola hasn’t been quite a picnic to play at either. Basically, we lose any game in Philadelphia, don’t worry about an at-large bid.
Mathematically, I feel like the best game to lose is Saturday if we had to lose one. Rhode Island would be a quad two, maybe three? Loss.
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02-04-2022, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
If they need to go 8-1, Is it better to lose at St Louis or at RI or St Joe’s?
I think they need to beat Davidson and then either St Louis or Richmond plus all remaining games to be solidly considered.
Beating All 3 of those and losing to Rhody is likely better but no losing to St Joe’s
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IMO, the record is more important at this point on than who we lose to. If we go 8-1 and lose at home to either UMass or Duquesne, that still means we beat RI, SLU, SJ, Richmond and LaSalle on the road while winning all our other home games including Davidson. To me a good road win and a bad home loss are equal. Or a bad road loss and a good road win cancel each other out. Winning a game we're supposed to lose and losing a game we're supposed to win should be the same as doing the opposite.
So the best thing is to if we can only have one more loss, let's postpone it as long as possible. BEAT SLU.
And I do understand that what I posted above is based on a pretty balanced rest of schedule. I mean if we only had the bottom feeders left, the one loss thing wouldn't apply as much. But we have some good and bad teams left which is balanced.
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02-04-2022, 10:01 AM
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It is so fun seeing the young team come together
and improve since the start of the season.
We sure have put ourselves in a keep winning mode,
but it can be done. We'll see:
What I hope for, is the team to be absolutely
laser focused, not look ahead, and their focus
is on the next team on the schedule, no looking ahead...
Good luck Flyers,
every game is big now....besting St Louis
will go a long way
Yuri Collins leads the nation in assists/game.
let's get our defense going, and shut him
down...
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02-04-2022, 03:33 PM
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You guys are arguing a moot point.
We’re not going to lose any more regular season games!
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02-04-2022, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer
You guys are arguing a moot point.
We’re not going to lose any more regular season games!
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Oh yes we will. Oh wait, are you talking about just this season? Then I apologize because you are correct.
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02-04-2022, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer
We’re not going to lose any more games!
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FTFY.
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02-05-2022, 11:30 AM
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This guy is considered one of the best “bracketologists”. Has the Flyers “in the mix”, ie, on the bubble. https://bracketville.wordpress.com/building-the-field/
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02-05-2022, 11:35 AM
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We picked up 2 more votes on www.bracketmatrix.com after the VCU win going from 3 to 5, still the 12th team out. SLU also getting 5 votes. VCU getting 9 votes. Davidson a 9 seed.
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02-05-2022, 11:58 AM
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And this is exactly why today’s game at SLU is so “yuge”. In order for them to climb into “the mix”, they need a few more signature wins, and they can’t afford to lose games they’re supposed to win. Today is a “supposed to win” game for them. If we win, it builds our resume.
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02-05-2022, 08:03 PM
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Well, looks like we are right back to get a top four finish in the Atlantic 10 so we only have to win three games in DC. Rhode Island losing today is not great. That’s the biggest Road game outside of Richmond we have left.
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02-05-2022, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
Rhode Island losing today is not great. That’s the biggest Road game outside of Richmond we have left.
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It is hard to see RI wanting hc Cox back at this point, they are in the midst of a 5 game losing streak. Guess it all depends on the buyout amount. This is his 4th year, 0 ncaat, 1 likely nit during the canceled covid postseason. Took over a program coming off back to back ncaat appearances.
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02-07-2022, 10:35 AM
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Sounds like RI may only owe Cox $300k if they fire him this year, he was given a 5 year deal when he was hired, this is year 4, he never was given an extension. Wait and see what happens. He has to know that he is on thin ice.
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02-07-2022, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Sounds like RI may only owe Cox $300k if they fire him this year, he was given a 5 year deal when he was hired, this is year 4, he never was given an extension. Wait and see what happens. He has to know that he is on thin ice.
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Can Fatts transfer back and be the savior? Can he get an extra year based on Jon Rothstein lobbying for it?
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02-07-2022, 02:19 PM
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After this weekend‘s game, we are now at number 66. Supposedly within that still magic number radius, but I’m not holding my breath.
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02-07-2022, 02:27 PM
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Not really in the at-large discussion now, continues to look like 14-4 (with damage in the A-10 tourney) or 15-3 is what gets us legit on the bubble, and even on the right side of it.
Remember: whatever our stated rank in the NET is, you have to add at least 15 (I add 20, just because I'm a pessimist like that) to get your ACTUAL NET for all practical committee related purposes. Must account for the 15-20 teams below us who will get auto bids from lesser conferences. The "bubble" doesn't really start till you're in the top 50 or so, and even then, our schizo record (as many Quad I wins as Quad IV losses) adds another layer of uncertainty.
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02-09-2022, 03:31 PM
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@JonRothstein
Top 50 NET breakdown by conference:
Big Ten (8)
SEC (8)
Big 12 (6)
Big East (6)
Pac-12 (4)
Mountain West (4)
WCC (4)
ACC (4)
OVC (2)
AAC (1)
C-USA (1)
MVC (1)
Atlantic 10 (1)
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02-17-2022, 10:07 AM
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Number 55 as of this morning. Number 54 Florida plays Auburn on Saturday, and number 53 BYU plays Saint Mary’s on Saturday. So, a win on Saturday and those two teams losing, could put us in position to be sniffing the top 50 by Monday. that’s obviously not factoring all kinds of other stuff happening!
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02-17-2022, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
Number 55 as of this morning. Number 54 Florida plays Auburn on Saturday, and number 53 BYU plays Saint Mary’s on Saturday. So, a win on Saturday and those two teams losing, could put us in position to be sniffing the top 50 by Monday. that’s obviously not factoring all kinds of other stuff happening!
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Also, currently number 47 Washington State has to play both UCLA and USC in the next three days. We cannot lose to Saint Joe!
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02-17-2022, 12:46 PM
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I could have missed something but just eyeballing the 50-70 range in the NET, Kansas seems like it would be clearly the best win of anyone hovering in that group
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