Next Monday's AP rating

[jack72]

Originally Posted by Viperstick Swish!

Most everybody picked that range of rating. Pick right now where we will be next Monday, and we'll be impressed. No hedging your bet, only one guess.

I say 14 after two wins.

[frisco flyer]

I say 11 after two wins!


16 writers didn't even have us in the T25 this week!
They will next week if we win 2.

[Smitty10]

I'd have to pick the winner of the St. Mary's game to do this and I'll be honest, I can't. St. Mary's is a team that should be in top 25 right now but isn't so they are going to be out for blood. They are a terrific team. It's going to be a barnburner of a game. Don't get me wrong, I believe in the Flyers, I just think this game at this time in this location is coin flip.

[SLUFLYER]

Two wins this week moves us to 16AP poll and 15 Coach’s poll

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 I'd have to pick the winner of the St. Mary's game to do this and I'll be honest, I can't. St. Mary's is a team that should be in top 25 right now but isn't so they are going to be out for blood. They are a terrific team. It's going to be a barnburner of a game. Don't get me wrong, I believe in the Flyers, I just think this game at this time in this location is coin flip.

The only St Mary's game I watched was the first half of their OT win of Wisc. I then watched Wisc get beat by a better Richmond team - by 10. So I'm scratching my head now going - was it a bad game by St Mary's vs Wisc? A good game by Wisc to stay with St Mary's or is Richmond really pretty good. This is why I am not a big metrics guy. It is winning games that means the most.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[CE80]

I say we win 2 and move up 2 spots to 17.

[Mr_Sweets]

Top 10 with some help (losses from current top 15).

[steverino015]

I say let's win all the rest of the games
for the rest of the year and NCAA,
and then everyone will agree on our ranking..

who's for that... I am!..) just win...

[TX Flyer]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER Two wins this week moves us to 16AP poll and 15 Coach’s poll

I concur

[jack72]

Really only two losers right in front of us, Seton and Fl St, so we may be 17 today. Unless Oregon and MI St get bumped behind us.

The x factor is how many of those 26 voters who had us nowhere will vote for us this week? The x factor could move us up to 13-15.

[m21eagle45]

Originally Posted by jack72 Really only two losers right in front of us, Seton and Fl St, so we may be 17 today. Unless Oregon and MI St get bumped behind us. The x factor is how many of those 26 voters who had us nowhere will vote for us this week? The x factor could move us up to 13-15.

UNC now has 3 losses and 2 of those have been blowouts. I know they are a blue blood, but they should have a decent drop.

[Medford]

FSU, Seton Hall, Michigan St and UNC "should" all drop behind UD, perhaps Arizona as well, so I'll say top 15. Should pick up a number of votes from the people that left UD off their ballot last week, and should climb a decent number of spots on the people's ballots that had UD in, but at 24 or 25 last week.


Seth Davis moved UD up to 9 on his ballot from either or 11 or 13 last week (can't recall exactly, but it was that range I believe)


Edit, he had UD 9th last week, so no change, but I wouldn't expect him to have moved UD up from 9th at this point.

[TX Flyer]

Originally Posted by Medford FSU, Seton Hall, Michigan St and UNC "should" all drop behind UD, perhaps Arizona as well, so I'll say top 15. Should pick up a number of votes from the people that left UD off their ballot last week, and should climb a decent number of spots on the people's ballots that had UD in, but at 24 or 25 last week. Seth Davis moved UD up to 9 on his ballot from either or 11 or 13 last week (can't recall exactly, but it was that range I believe)

He moved us from a #9 to a #9. He post his previous week position in (*) beside it

[UD62]

Flyers stay a #7 on latest 25&1

[Smitty10]

Any predictions for this coming Monday? guessing 11th or 12th.

[UDEE79]

#10
Posted via Mobile Device

[T-Bone 84]

I’ll guess 12 in AP and 11 in USA Today. I don’t think there’s been enough shakeup in Top 10 to allow us to break-in. But we definitely didn’t hurt ourselves with tonight’s result.
Posted via Mobile Device

[udx2]

The Zags/Arizona game outcome (still going on) could affect this but I see a slight movement by one spot and that is okay. Just want to keep moving up.

If SLU had beaten no. 12 Auburn, we could have seen more.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 I’ll guess 12 in AP and 11 in USA Today. I don’t think there’s been enough shakeup in Top 10 to allow us to break-in. But we definitely didn’t hurt ourselves with tonight’s result. Posted via Mobile Device

Yeah, not much shakeup, but maybe a few more voters will be aware of Dayton?

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 Yeah, not much shakeup, but maybe a few more voters will be aware of Dayton?

Let’s see if that one voter who still left us off, comes around.

[jack72]

We will stay 14. No one above us lost. We could get jumped over where we are vote wise.
Posted via Mobile Device

[UDGutter2]

Michigan lost twice, I assume at least 1 spot upward. And I know what happens when you assume, but as long as Michigan is the other half of that, I'm OK with it.

[Flyer68]

I agree we will stay at #14 with next move upward as long as we win next two games particularly Colorado, which is a good team 8-2.

North Texas State lives and dies by the 3 point shot averaging about 26 three point shots per game. As expected when their percentage is high, they stay in the fight. Only lost to Oklahoma by 2 and Utah State by 9. Lost to Rhode Island by 13 so that might give us some comparison for A-10.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[steverino015]

they can launch as many 3's as they want to,
as long as they don't go in... should be a good matchup
and a team very comparable to a upper Atlantic 10 team..

go Flyers!

[CE80]

Except Michigan, all the losses in the top 25 are BELOW us - Tenn, Seton Hall, X, Arizona. BELOW us! How does that sound?

[The Fly]

Originally Posted by Flyer68 I agree we will stay at #14 with next move upward as long as we win next two games particularly Colorado, which is a good team 8-2. North Texas State lives and dies by the 3 point shot averaging about 26 three point shots per game. As expected when their percentage is high, they stay in the fight. Only lost to Oklahoma by 2 and Utah State by 9. Lost to Rhode Island by 13 so that might give us some comparison for A-10.

Lost on a late three-pointer at VCU — 59-56.

[TA111]

Originally Posted by jack72 We will stay 14. No one above us lost. We could get jumped over where we are vote wise. Posted via Mobile Device

Michigan lost twice, including a beat down by Illinois. They’ll drop big time. We will be 12 or 13 in AP and 11 in coaches poll.

[TA111]

Originally Posted by UD62 Flyers stay a #7 on latest 25&1

Now at 6 as Michigan drops.

[66flyer]

OSU lost, besides Michigan. Plus a some teams below us. I think we will go up a spot.

[Go-UD-Go]

We are beating teams in the manner of a top 10 team, while complaining of not having a good game we beat them by 30. I say #10

[Flyer 86]

10 to 12.

Keep WINNING!!!

[CoffeeCan]

Between 11 and 14. I say 13?

[Medford]

I think they'll stay the same in both polls, Michigan won't fall far enough to drop below UD in the AP, Michigan will fall below UD in the coaches, but Oregon will jump UD to counterbalance that.


So 14/12


One area that UD made a huge leap was on the Kenpom ratings. They went from mid 20s earlier in the week to 14 as of last night. That jump is largely attributed to a huge leap in their defensive ratings from the mid 20s to 60 following the shutdown of Drake. I haven't looked a the Sags, but the human polls have been leading the Kenpom ratings since Maui. Not to say that the Kenpom or Sags are the end all/be all, but I know a lot of voters use them to help frame their opinion on teams.

[FrankStreetFlyer]

T-rank has us at 5. I understand that T-rank only uses data from this season where as Kenprom has data from last season for the first part of the new season and then they lower the influence of that data as the season progresses. If Kenprom still has last season weighted then it makes sense that we would be improving and hopefully heading towards where T-rank has us. Someone who knows better please correct me.

[Radar]

You never know with pollsters, but Michigan did lose twice...on the road to an unranked team (Ill) and at home to a ranked team (#10 Oregeon). Oregon, BTW, looked d**n good.

[lhsgolf19]

UD #13 in the New AP Poll

Highest since December 1967... Crazy

[Flyerferd]

Number 10 in the most important ranking. The NET! Richmond is at 22 Colorado is at 31, VCU is at 52.
Posted via Mobile Device

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Medford]

Duquesne checked in at 20 as well in NET

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

[San Diego Flyer]

Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 UD #13 in the New AP Poll Highest since December 1967... Crazy

Crazy fun. We have a tendency to drop a game right about this time when we get a good rating. Getting past Drake with a pasting really helped. Favored by 16 and win by 31. Now if
we just can stay focused on North Texas we will be set up to really get some attention.

What I love is when we make talking heads like Lunardi actually show us some love.
When VA Tech beat MSU, he couldn't stop gushing over the Hoya's with pages of press.
The next day we drub them by 27 and he didn't print one word of praise.

We flat out earned this ranking.

[Radar]

And our only loss was in OT to the (new) #1 team...thank you tOSU!

[Medford]

To give a little insight into some of these voters:


Zach Klein was the lone AP voter that didn't place UD in his top 25 last week.


This week he has UD 9th. That 31 point drubbing of Drake must have really changed his mind.

[ocdvic]

Hoyas aren't Hokies

[Medford]

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer Crazy fun. We have a tendency to drop a game right about this time when we get a good rating. Getting past Drake with a pasting really helped. Favored by 16 and win by 31. Now if we just can stay focused on North Texas we will be set up to really get some attention. What I love is when we make talking heads like Lunardi actually show us some love. When VA Tech beat MSU, he couldn't stop gushing over the Hoya's with pages of press. The next day we drub them by 27 and he didn't print one word of praise. We flat out earned this ranking.

Not sure what us beting VTech has to do with the transfers at Georgetown

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer Crazy fun. We have a tendency to drop a game right about this time when we get a good rating. Getting past Drake with a pasting really helped. Favored by 16 and win by 31. Now if we just can stay focused on North Texas we will be set up to really get some attention. What I love is when we make talking heads like Lunardi actually show us some love. When VA Tech beat MSU, he couldn't stop gushing over the Hoya's with pages of press. The next day we drub them by 27 and he didn't print one word of praise. We flat out earned this ranking.

Actually, it had more to do with Michigan losing to Illinois and Oregon than it did to our point differential against Drake. Michigan dropped 9 spots and that was just enough to push us up one. I guess Ibi really made a difference this week by being with us instead of them

[Radar]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 Actually, it had more to do with Michigan losing to Illinois and Oregon than it did to our point differential against Drake. Michigan dropped 9 spots and that was just enough to push us up one. I guess Ibi really made a difference this week by being with us instead of them

The irony is Michigan skyrocketed in the polls the same week we did...after good showings Thanksgiving week. We sustained, they didn't.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by Radar And our only loss was in OT to the (new) #1 team...thank you tOSU!

Before OSU's loss to Minnesota yesterday, Kansas was projected as a no-brainer for 1st. So don't think that game mattered as far as we're concerned. But it's certainly keeps Kansas solidly planted there as long as they keep winning.

[sheg]

Bart Torvik degrades preseason ratings faster than Kenpom does, hence the large discrepancy in their ratings of UD. The preseason bias disappears from Torvik after 13 games, and approximately 19 games with Kenpom. Neither method is necessarily right or wrong, and the discrepancy will go away over time.

Another example of the difference is easily seen when looking at UNC (Torvik 58 Kenpom 36). It's clear that UNC is not their usual top 25 caliber team (at least so far) this year. Yet Kenpom is slower to move them down. The bias towards preseason rankings is not nefarious, because if you don't heavily weight previous seasons, you get some huge outliers early in the year due to small sample sizes (see old RPIs after 4-5 games for an example). Unfortunately for these rankings, they react slowly to teams that make significant improvements (UD) or dropoffs (UNC).

Ohio State and Michigan are getting a lot of credit for beating UNC this year that will diminish in time (they do both have good wins though, 18 Penn State, 22 Villanova, 7 Gonzaga, and 34 Creighton among them). I think they're both likely too high at this point.

[John C.]

Almost every talking head I heard had OSU at number 1.

Michigan had a couple of nice victories and because they are Michigan with a name coach they were placed way too high to begin with. They are probably about where they should be now. Polls always over react. Number 1 always falls if they lose. Are they really any different?

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by John C. Almost every talking head I heard had OSU at number 1. Michigan had a couple of nice victories and because they are Michigan with a name coach they were placed way too high to begin with. They are probably about where they should be now. Polls always over react. Number 1 always falls if they lose. Are they really any different?

No they probably aren't different in most cases, although in the past some number 1's have continued to slide. But the one thing I do like about polls over the analytic rankings is that it is more of a snapshot of the present, which is what they are supposed to be. Pollsters shouldn't be voting on what a team will probably do in the future but rather what have you done so far.