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03-12-2019, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
Lets, examine your response and Buster's original question of " Not sure how we go from on the list of 'Next Four Out' to completely off the grid after a road win."?????
It is annoying that UD was in next four out, beat decent Duquesne in road game, but then falls off the chart. But remember, Belmont and Lipscomb played tournament games this week,, and both made it to the championship game, and UD was still playing regular season; thus Flyers still have chances to move back on to that list. If UD were to win games against SLU and Davidson, you can pretty much assume they will leap frog several of the below listed teams, especially the ones that are now done.
There are 12 teams below, and four of them are projected in the field (using current ESPN Bracketology) I assume if flyers win said games they automatically overtake Belmont, Furman, and Lipscomb...automatically because those schools are done playing. That leaves 9 schools from below list. If Saint Mary's goes down to zags, then Dayton would likely jumped Saint Mary's. That brings the list to eight; last four in and first four out; therefore, Dayton is hypothetically in the number five spot (or first team listed in next four out).
Two of the projected last four in teams, play each other in ACC Tournament, one is out, that moves UD to the fourth spot on below list (last team in the First Four Out). Another matchup of one team in the last four in and first four out is IU v. Ohio state, and one is likely out, that moves UD up to the third team out of the field. Again, thus far, assuming that wins against SLU and Davidson only move Flyers up one spot with each other variable occurring. But in reality, they might move up two or three spots just from a victory over Davidson. That could make the Flyers the first or second team out of the field.
TCU goes down to dog meat Oklahoma State, okay not likely, but possible
Creighton is also on the below list, and they play XU, who can easily beat them.
Alabama is on the below list, and they face Ole Miss, who has better record and can beat them.
Georgetown plays Seaton Hall, who has similar record, and can beat them.
I just accounted for all 12 teams on below bubble list, and you only need to over take nine of them. Three are already done, one plays the top ranked Gonzaga, four play each other in two separate games, and the winner of those two games gets Virginia and Mich. State respectively.
All things considered a potential win against Davidson would be a fairly significant win. You never know folks!
Last Four In:
NC State
TCU
Clemson
Ohio State
First Four Out:
Indiana
Belmont
Creighton
Alabama
Next Four Out:
Lipscomb
Georgetown
Saint Mary's
Furman
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Stars align perfectly theory. St. Mary’s just busted that to pieces. Brooklyn or bust boys.......unless you’re rooting for an NIT game against X.
Last edited by SLUFLYER; 03-13-2019 at 12:07 PM..
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03-13-2019, 10:55 AM
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IMO it's an absolute joke that sub 0.500 teams in league play are being considered. This will kill college basketball. Nobody outside of their respective fan bases wants to watch a garbage Indiana/OU/Texas/Alabama/etc squad lose in the first round. Meanwhile they will all pay lip service to the 'Cinderella's' while excluding teams that actually went out and achieved something in their respective leagues. People watch the tournament for the upsets, it makes for a fantastic tournament and great TV.
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03-13-2019, 12:30 PM
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This NC State Clemson contest is probably an elimination game.
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03-13-2019, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Canonball
IMO it's an absolute joke that sub 0.500 teams in league play are being considered. This will kill college basketball. Nobody outside of their respective fan bases wants to watch a garbage Indiana/OU/Texas/Alabama/etc squad lose in the first round. Meanwhile they will all pay lip service to the 'Cinderella's' while excluding teams that actually went out and achieved something in their respective leagues. People watch the tournament for the upsets, it makes for a fantastic tournament and great TV.
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I agree with and love your last sentence re: the upsets, the tournament and the TV aspect.
I just don't think it's as reasonable and fair as it used to be to draw a hardline from P5 at below .500 anymore. Those conferences are bigger now and when you may have to play 12-15 games against top 25 teams in your conference, you can be a worthy candidate with enough quality wins to merit inclusion if you're 8-10 or 9-11. I think if you have enough quality wins, you could even justify 8-12 or 7-11. I also think you can find plenty of those teams that made Sweet 16 runs, surprisingly. It's more exciting when it's a smaller school and not UCLA or Syracuse.
I feel like Indiana has a solid case. Teams like Clemson and TCU, even NC State, less of a case. I hate that a P5 can go 4-10 in Q1 games and that gets a higher "eval grade" than a small con team who goes 2-1 or 2-2. I'd like to see that changed/implemented.
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03-13-2019, 01:37 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I just don't think it's as reasonable and fair as it used to be to draw a hardline from P5 at below .500 anymore. Those conferences are bigger now and when you may have to play 12-15 games against top 25 teams in your conference, you can be a worthy candidate with enough quality wins to merit inclusion if you're 8-10 or 9-11. I think if you have enough quality wins, you could even justify 8-12 or 7-11.
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The problem as I see it, is that you've proven over the course of the season that you're not good enough to beat NCAA tournament teams. If you are sub-.500, that means you can't win half the games in your own league, that should translate to the fact you can't win half the games in the NCAA.
Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I also think you can find plenty of those teams that made Sweet 16 runs, surprisingly. It's more exciting when it's a smaller school and not UCLA or Syracuse.
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This is only anecdotal. Just because some of these teams made it into the second weekend when most people didn't think they should be in the field is because of matchups. Some games are good matchups for a team, some are not.
Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I feel like Indiana has a solid case. Teams like Clemson and TCU, even NC State, less of a case. I hate that a P5 can go 4-10 in Q1 games and that gets a higher "eval grade" than a small con team who goes 2-1 or 2-2. I'd like to see that changed/implemented.
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If it's all about good wins, then they should define what a "good win", and totally get rid of win-loss record.
The underlying question is, "What defines a NCAA tournament berth worthy team?" The answer usually seems to be, "the eye test".
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03-13-2019, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
The problem as I see it, is that you've proven over the course of the season that you're not good enough to beat NCAA tournament teams. If you are sub-.500, that means you can't win half the games in your own league, that should translate to the fact you can't win half the games in the NCAA.
This is only anecdotal. Just because some of these teams made it into the second weekend when most people didn't think they should be in the field is because of matchups. Some games are good matchups for a team, some are not.
If it's all about good wins, then they should define what a "good win", and totally get rid of win-loss record.
The underlying question is, "What defines a NCAA tournament berth worthy team?" The answer usually seems to be, "the eye test".
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Let's use Indiana as an example. They're what, 8-12 in conference? But I certainly feel like they've proven themselves as good enough to beat NCAA tournament teams. I feel like they've beaten 6 or 7 of them.
Agree that it's somewhat anecdotal. Reading your post, you seem to suggest that those teams ONLY made the 2nd weekend because of good matchups. That's not always the case and may not even be the majority of cases. Same can be said for a 12-seed from the SoCon or MAC. And because said P5 team made the Sweet 16 doesn't validate that they belonged in the tourney. I simply used that as an example to Cannonball's post that suggested the "garbage" P5 team that loses in the first round. Those "garbage" P5 teams don't always lose in the first round.
Not a big fan of the "eye test". IMO, it devalues winning/losing. But per my "eye test", I would vote OUT tOSU.
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03-13-2019, 02:37 PM
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When a P5 team that has a suspect, at best, resume and gets in and then advances far it only proves to me that they underachieved during the regular season. It should be based on actual results not what the talent on the team says they should be doing. If we wanted that we'd just have KenPom predict who won the tournament and crown them national champions because on paper they should win it.
The thing I am sick of hearing from P5 schills is that it is not their responsibility to give games, especially away games, to non-P5 schools. And when the non-P5 don't have enough opportunities and therefore not enough Q1/Q2 wins its on resume it's their own fault for not getting enough "good" games. BUT then they can't have their cake and eat it too. Actually winning games needs to become more important and when a P5 flounders through their league schedule it should be the same argument that you chose to be in your conference and play all of those "good" games so if you lose a lot of them then so be it it is on you. No one is holding a gun to their head saying they need to be in the conference they are in.
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03-13-2019, 02:56 PM
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Clemson, completely sh!ts the bed down the stretch, blows a huge lead and loses to the bubbly NCState. They're now 1-10 and Q1 games. If they get a bid over someone like Lipscomb or UNC-Greensboro, I may blow a gasket.
Not sure NCState belongs in either, but they live to pick another quality win or two this week.
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03-14-2019, 05:15 PM
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Was looking at teams safely in and on the bubble...
See if you can guess the teams here... or even rank them at this point.
This is based on http://www.seed-madness.com/
Team A:
6-12 vs Quad 1&2
5-6 away
17-14 overall
Non con SOS 93
Team B:
3-8 vs Quad 1&2
7-3 road
21-10 overall
Non con SOS 76
Team C:
8-12 vs Quad 1&2
5-7 away
18-13 overall
Non con SOS 155
Team D:
10-12 vs Quad 1&2
2-8 away
19-12 overall
Non con SOS 152
Team E:
4-5 vs Quad 1&2
9-4 away
24-6 overall
Non con SOS 131
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03-14-2019, 05:26 PM
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Just off of their records
A =
B = Flyers
C = Ohio State
D =
E = Buffalo
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03-14-2019, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by chicago92
Just off of their records
A =
B = Flyers
C = Ohio State
D =
E = Buffalo
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Flyers and OSU are correct. How would you rank these?
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03-14-2019, 05:41 PM
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A probably the Hoosiers
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03-14-2019, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Clemson, completely sh!ts the bed down the stretch, blows a huge lead and loses to the bubbly NCState. They're now 1-10 and Q1 games. If they get a bid over someone like Lipscomb or UNC-Greensboro, I may blow a gasket.
Not sure NCState belongs in either, but they live to pick another quality win or two this week.
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This selection Sunday could get really ugly. So much ambiguity. This will be an all time record of wtf's on selection Sunday.
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03-14-2019, 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
A probably the Hoosiers
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I thought it was either them or the Eggsheads. Then, I cheated and peeked. Had no clue on D, either.
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03-14-2019, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
Flyers and OSU are correct. How would you rank these?
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If E isn’t Buffalo, then I’m guessing it’s VCU (and that is a “no-peek” guess).
Ranking is a struggle. If you base it on Quad 1/2 rankings, then D & E are the clear winners and A & B are at the bottom. However, if you look at the record away from home, then our Flyers and Team E (VCU?) have a pretty strong argument. And then, there’s the non-con. You can play the strongest teams in the land, but if you can’t beat them, then what’s the point? Similarly, if you go 11-0 against the worst teams in the land, what’s the point?
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03-14-2019, 06:46 PM
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D is TCU, Minnesota, Clemson, or Indiana.
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03-14-2019, 06:52 PM
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From my perspective, unless something dramatic happens tonight, I still believe 2-4 NCAA spots are open.
Washington, TCU, Indiana, Clemson, NC State, Creighton, all bubble clubs that have lost on first or second day of conference tournament. Good chance OSU goes down tomorrow.
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03-14-2019, 07:59 PM
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A – Florida
B – Dayton
C – Ohio St
D – Minnesota
E- Utah State
And Utah State is solidly in, not even on the bubble. I mean, it is a good resume, but is there THAT much separation from them and us here?
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03-14-2019, 08:34 PM
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Academy Doolie
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
A – Florida
B – Dayton
C – Ohio St
D – Minnesota
E- Utah State
And Utah State is solidly in, not even on the bubble. I mean, it is a good resume, but is there THAT much separation from them and us here?
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Well to start Utah State's Non Conf SOS isn't 131, it's 25. That is stronger than UD's 77. By any measure Utah St is better than UD. Compare Utah St's Net/RPI/KenPom rankings of 30/33/37 to UD's of 65/69/58.
All measures show Utah St is a better team. And you were a bit disingenuous of combining Quad 1 and 2 records. That makes UD look good, because what is the Flyer's resume lacking... a good win. 1 Quad 1 win, which after Friday may no longer be a Quad 1 win. Utah State has 2 solid Quad 1 wins, including a top 20 signature win. Had the Flyers snagged any of those close games against VCU, Miss St etc, then the resumes would be the same, and then UD likely be a legitimate at large selection. Alas, that didn't happen. So it's win in Brooklyn. No whining about the selection committee.
Last edited by 434; 03-14-2019 at 08:49 PM..
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03-14-2019, 08:38 PM
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Yes there is, because UD has a 55 spot advantage in Non Conference SOS.
And Minnesota is a projected 9 seed by Lunardi; and there are losing to Penn state in second half.
Bubbles Toledo just went down to Northern Illinois in MAC Tournament; and Heavily favored Buffalo is still alive.
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03-14-2019, 09:09 PM
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434, no one was whinning, except yourself. And respectfully, Utah State doesn't have some incredible non-conference schedule...miss valley state and the like . Counting a 2019 PAC 12 team will hardly impress anyone, I could easily go on.
No one said Utah State shouldn't or wouldn't get in. That's your errenous interpretation of the discussion.
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03-14-2019, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
434, no one was whinning, except yourself. And respectfully, Utah State doesn't have some incredible non-conference schedule...miss valley state and the like . Counting a 2019 PAC 12 team will hardly impress anyone, I could easily go on.
No one said Utah State shouldn't or wouldn't get in. That's your errenous interpretation of the discussion.
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I think you misinterpreted what I was trying to say. First, I am not making any comments on Utah St non-conf schedule other than to point out that CoffeCan had posted an incorrect number.
Second, I was not saying Utah St wasn't deserving to get in or anyone claimed they shouldn't get in.
My point was, that in my mind CoffeeCan set up that blind resume to make UD look like a worthy discussion point for an at large selection. By combining Quad 1 and 2 wins and mis-stating Utah St non-conf SOS, it does look like UD is equal to Utah St (a deserving tourney team). What CoffeeCan was asking was there really any difference between the two. In my mind he was implying the two aren't very different. However, when you consider Utah St's actual non-conf SOS and consider only Quad 1 wins, along with multiple other rating systems, Utah St and UD are not that close. Maybe I was mis-interpreting him. I would say on the court the difference between the teams is actually pretty close, but UD didn't win those close games that would have given the Flyers an resume on par with Utah St.
The only reason I even responded was initially to correct the erroneous SOS number, but my frustration with some on this board that believe the Flyers should be part of the last 4 in/last 4 out discussion caused me to further expand on the Utah St resume. When you consider UD has only 1 Quad 1 win currently, and come Sunday may not even have that (Davidson needs to lose either tomorrow or Sat for UD to be in the final and they are near the cut line for the Flyer win at Davidson to count as Quad 1...they may fall below that cut line), I just don't know how you can consider them over any team with multiple Quad 1 wins.
As an aside, the New Mexico/Utah St game was fun to watch. Amazingly the Aggies won even though they had nearly 30 turnovers. It was like watching the Flyers trying to break a full-court press...nervewracking.
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03-15-2019, 12:02 AM
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Bubbles Texas jus went down. Lots of bubbles going at-least poof today, if not a total pop.
Because most of those teams have resumes littered with bad loss after bad loss; and many of us do not believe a school from a football conference deserves continual NCAA tournament opportunities just because they managed to pull their stinky pants up and win a few of the two dozen quad 1 game chances they have been given, just to turn around and drop games to Illinois, or anybody in the Pacific 12.
No one is guaranteeing that UD or any other school will get an at large bid to NCAA. Many NCAA at-large selections are real head scratchers.
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03-15-2019, 12:06 AM
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Dayton is 3pts from being an NCAA lock: the 2pt loss to URI and 1pt loss to VCU at home. If we're 15-3 we're probably A10 regular season champs, we're 23-8, and probably looking at a #9/#10 seed. That's the long and short of it.
But no sour grapes. We could have easily lost the Bonnie OT game on the road, the GW game on the road after the 28-6 start to the game, the SLU game at home, the SJU game at home, the Duquesne game at home, and the UMass game at home. Even the Ga Southern game was iffy.
This team could easily be 16-15.
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03-15-2019, 12:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
Dayton is 3pts from being an NCAA lock: the 2pt loss to URI and 1pt loss to VCU at home. If we're 15-3 we're probably A10 regular season champs, we're 23-8, and probably looking at a #9/#10 seed. That's the long and short of it.
But no sour grapes. We could have easily lost the Bonnie OT game on the road, the GW game on the road after the 28-6 start to the game, the SLU game at home, the SJU game at home, the Duquesne game at home, and the UMass game at home. Even the Ga Southern game was iffy.
This team could easily be 16-15.
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Don’t forget a one point win at Davidson that could have gone the other way as well.
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03-15-2019, 09:48 AM
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Jerry Palm
In this article, Palm indicates that neither NC State, nor Indiana would even be in a discussion last year, but the NET favors them greatly, even though NC States non-con SOS was 352 (out of 353 teams).
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...ference-teams/
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03-15-2019, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by 434
I think you misinterpreted what I was trying to say. First, I am not making any comments on Utah St non-conf schedule other than to point out that CoffeCan had posted an incorrect number.
Second, I was not saying Utah St wasn't deserving to get in or anyone claimed they shouldn't get in.
My point was, that in my mind CoffeeCan set up that blind resume to make UD look like a worthy discussion point for an at large selection. By combining Quad 1 and 2 wins and mis-stating Utah St non-conf SOS, it does look like UD is equal to Utah St (a deserving tourney team). What CoffeeCan was asking was there really any difference between the two. In my mind he was implying the two aren't very different. However, when you consider Utah St's actual non-conf SOS and consider only Quad 1 wins, along with multiple other rating systems, Utah St and UD are not that close. Maybe I was mis-interpreting him. I would say on the court the difference between the teams is actually pretty close, but UD didn't win those close games that would have given the Flyers an resume on par with Utah St.
The only reason I even responded was initially to correct the erroneous SOS number, but my frustration with some on this board that believe the Flyers should be part of the last 4 in/last 4 out discussion caused me to further expand on the Utah St resume. When you consider UD has only 1 Quad 1 win currently, and come Sunday may not even have that (Davidson needs to lose either tomorrow or Sat for UD to be in the final and they are near the cut line for the Flyer win at Davidson to count as Quad 1...they may fall below that cut line), I just don't know how you can consider them over any team with multiple Quad 1 wins.
As an aside, the New Mexico/Utah St game was fun to watch. Amazingly the Aggies won even though they had nearly 30 turnovers. It was like watching the Flyers trying to break a full-court press...nervewracking.
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I had no idea my dad was on this message board. I will be sure to do the dishes. Can I borrow the car this weekend, as long as I promise not to mix up any SOS numbers? Thanks, Dad. You are the best.
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03-15-2019, 05:41 PM
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Don't look now -- Memphis coming on STRONG. Before beating UCF today they are 54 in the NET. If they make the final they could have a shot at an at-large.
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03-15-2019, 06:36 PM
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I have a feeling that we will be seeing a lot of surprise selections this year from the committee. No one knows exactly how exactly how the NET is going to be used as its rankings compared to others is significantly different.
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03-15-2019, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by bigred
I have a feeling that we will be seeing a lot of surprise selections this year from the committee. No one knows exactly how the NET is going to be used as its rankings compared to others is significantly different.
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It probably will be used to put 19-14 P-5 teams in ahead of 27-5 mid-majors.
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03-15-2019, 08:43 PM
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X and Nova in OT
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03-15-2019, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Falcon7
X and Nova in OT
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Nova up 6 with 2:21
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03-15-2019, 08:59 PM
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Captain
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Virginia down 9 with 1:39 left to Fla St. If this holds, who gets the #1 overall seed?
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03-15-2019, 11:20 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
It probably will be used to put 19-14 P-5 teams in ahead of 27-5 mid-majors.
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Sad but true.
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03-15-2019, 11:26 PM
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Colonel
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Duke NC game is awesome. Taking my mind off our train wreck
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03-15-2019, 11:28 PM
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The NIT selection show will air live on ESPNU at 8:30pm on Sunday.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019...tic_qualifiers
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03-16-2019, 01:29 AM
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Yawn...the equivalent of kissing your sister.
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03-16-2019, 08:31 AM
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Don't be the least bit surprised when we draw Indiana in the first game. I'm betting my portion of UDScotts pizza on it.
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03-16-2019, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by N2663R
Don't be the least bit surprised when we draw Indiana in the first game. I'm betting my portion of UDScotts pizza on it.
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IU will be a 1 or 2 seed so there's no chance we see them. Same with _avier.
I'll be my portion of udscott's pizza on it, too!
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
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03-16-2019, 08:46 AM
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Still have Oho State in at 19 -14 and conference record of 8-12???? If they don't make it...there could be a match-up of Ohio State, Indiana, Xavier or Wright State. Wouldn't mind seeing a first round match with any of the first three.
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03-16-2019, 11:27 AM
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YEA!!!!!!!!!!!!
Boy we are all hopin for an NIT invite!
The slogan for the NIT should be 'Not ready for PRIME TIME'
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03-16-2019, 11:44 AM
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Here is what it boils down to in my opinion.
We just went on "Deal or No Deal"
We ended up with the case with $25,000.
While it is nice to have that $25,000 it is hard to be happy when you leave that $1,000,000 case on the board.
What could have been.
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03-16-2019, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71
Boy we are all hopin for an NIT invite!
The slogan for the NIT should be 'Not ready for PRIME TIME'
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Nobody is "hoping" for an NIT invite. EVERYBODY wanted the NCAA bid. It was there for the taking, we lost, to a team who was simply tougher than us.
Knowing that the NIT is our only landing spot now, folks are looking forward to what might be some fun and interesting matchups. That's all. Don't take it out of context.
My wife has several degrees from SLU and I have a litany of Billiken friends and colleagues. Few Flyer fans are more disappointed than me with last night's result. But I can say that as down as I am this morning about it, I too would get reenergized and reengaged with the thought of an NIT matchup (probably second round) against a _avier or Indiana.
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03-16-2019, 01:36 PM
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No Gem City Jam this year unless it is in the 2nd round of the NIT or something.
A 1st round NIT match-up with Xavier, Ohio State, or Indiana would not surprise me at all.
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03-16-2019, 08:15 PM
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We drop down to a 6 seed. We are only 2 spots from the cutoff line. We are the 2nd to last team in. Providence is the last at-large team.
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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03-16-2019, 09:23 PM
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Looks Like
Dayton @ Indiana to me.
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03-16-2019, 09:41 PM
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I don’t care what the agreement between us and the NIT is. Of course we will be a six seed. Why give us a home game unless it is absolutely necessary? They drop Dayton to a five or six, their tournament can go on as scheduled. No interruptions.
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03-16-2019, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse
Dayton @ Indiana to me.
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I’m guessing Dayton at Norwood Tech, so they can play-up the whole Jimmy Carter, “snubbed by the Big East” angle. And, if that happens, then our guys need to be more ready than they were on Friday against SLU.
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03-17-2019, 09:53 AM
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That says we're a 5 seed. We're also ahead of Wichita State and San Francisco. If St Louis loses today they could get in. Let's hope they win. It sucks that there are nine automatic bids.
Last edited by longtimefan; 03-17-2019 at 09:55 AM..
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03-17-2019, 09:54 AM
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If we play at Norwood or Bloomington, we get smoked.
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03-17-2019, 09:59 AM
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According to this, we could also play at Toledo.
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03-17-2019, 10:36 AM
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Sorry to divert from the NIT posts, as I am interested in what/where the Flyers land. I'm confident (90%) we'll be playing in the NIT somewhere.
Re: the NCAA bracket, I am kind of liking Lunardi's updated bracket this morning. He's leaving out teams like - NCState, Texas, Alabama, Indiana and Clemson. His last team in is TCU. Not sure if there's another bid stealer conference championship out there or not. Either way, I'd love to see TCU replaced with a Belmont, UNC-Greensboro or Lipscomb. I could get on board with just about all of Joey Brackets' picks then.
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03-17-2019, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
That says we're a 5 seed. We're also ahead of Wichita State and San Francisco. If St Louis loses today they could get in. Let's hope they win. It sucks that there are nine automatic bids.
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Actually 11 - 2 more autobids were above us. Liscomb and Belmont. I guess you could say that they would get at large though (so not really bid stealers).
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03-17-2019, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Actually 11 - 2 more autobids were above us. Liscomb and Belmont. I guess you could say that they would get at large though (so not really bid stealers).
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Right. I should have said 9 bid stealers. The last 9 teams in the field are auto bids.
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03-17-2019, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
IU will be a 1 or 2 seed so there's no chance we see them. Same with _avier.
I'll be my portion of udscott's pizza on it, too!
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So in other words you’re putting no money on it. It’s OK, sometimes it’s hard to make bets when those that lose never pay...
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03-17-2019, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
That says we're a 5 seed. We're also ahead of Wichita State and San Francisco. If St Louis loses today they could get in. Let's hope they win. It sucks that there are nine automatic bids.
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Yeah, last night's update had us a couple spots worse, this morning's update had us a couple spots better.
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03-17-2019, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Sorry to divert from the NIT posts, as I am interested in what/where the Flyers land. I'm confident (90%) we'll be playing in the NIT somewhere.
Re: the NCAA bracket, I am kind of liking Lunardi's updated bracket this morning. He's leaving out teams like - NCState, Texas, Alabama, Indiana and Clemson. His last team in is TCU. Not sure if there's another bid stealer conference championship out there or not. Either way, I'd love to see TCU replaced with a Belmont, UNC-Greensboro or Lipscomb. I could get on board with just about all of Joey Brackets' picks then.
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Thank you NCAA Selection Committee for taking my advice.
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03-17-2019, 06:51 PM
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At first blush, it looks like the committee did a pretty good job.
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03-17-2019, 07:02 PM
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Agree - lots of emphasis on quad 1 wins. St Johns Net 72 last team in. I'm assuming they had several quad one wins.
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03-17-2019, 07:32 PM
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amazing to me that Oklahoma got a 9 seed despite being 7-11 in conference
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03-17-2019, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Agree - lots of emphasis on quad 1 wins. St Johns Net 72 last team in. I'm assuming they had several quad one wins.
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Nova, VCU on a neutral court and Marquette twice
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03-17-2019, 07:38 PM
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Surprised UC got only a 7 and somewhat surprised OSU avoided the First Four.
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03-17-2019, 07:44 PM
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NIT bracket reveal at 8:30 on ESPN you.
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03-17-2019, 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Nova, VCU on a neutral court and Marquette twice
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I said at the beginning of the year we need two wins in Atlantis and 1 of the 2 SEC games. Win two of any of these games and we are in. It's about quad 1 wins not inidvidual NET ranking. Dayton 69 / St Johns 73.
Virginia
Oklahoma
VCU(2)
Miss State
Auburn
0-6 against that group.
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03-17-2019, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
I said at the beginning of the year we need two wins in Atlantis and 1 of the 2 SEC games. Win two of any of these games and we are in. It's about quad 1 wins not inidvidual NET ranking. Dayton 69 / St Johns 73.
Virginia
Oklahoma
VCU(2)
Miss State
Auburn
0-6 against that group.
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Yeah, completely agree. Those high quality wins are what does it
Oklahoma went 7-11 in conference and still got a 9 seed.
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03-17-2019, 07:56 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by UD90
I said at the beginning of the year we need two wins in Atlantis and 1 of the 2 SEC games. Win two of any of these games and we are in. It's about quad 1 wins not inidvidual NET ranking. Dayton 69 / St Johns 73.
Virginia
Oklahoma
VCU(2)
Miss State
Auburn
0-6 against that group.
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Good call, and good point. It’s not enough to simply play good teams; you need to beat them. We didn’t; St. John’s did. Not commenting on whether or not St. John’s deserved an invite. This season, we did not.
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03-17-2019, 07:59 PM
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Gotta deliver in those exempt tourneys. Almost have to go 2-1 or better in those
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03-17-2019, 10:34 PM
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Perhaps, but since basically none of the four teams playing in the First Four are strong NCAA TOURNAMENT Bids, then, I would much rather see UD make it, and not deserve it, as opposed to any other school. I have no concern as to if my team deserves it or not, as that's not the issue.
I doubt that Ohio State really deserves it, but being in is all that matters.
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03-17-2019, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
Surprised UC got only a 7 and somewhat surprised OSU avoided the First Four.
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UC's ooc sos is not that great. It is the same problem year after year.
See? I am not just picking on UD, lol.
UC still thinks that they are in the old Big East/Conference USA and don't have to go out on the road and play people/play more tough road/neutral ooc games. They need to wake up and get with reality already.
Last edited by ud2; 03-17-2019 at 10:48 PM..
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03-18-2019, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
UC's ooc sos is not that great. It is the same problem year after year.
See? I am not just picking on UD, lol.
UC still thinks that they are in the old Big East/Conference USA and don't have to go out on the road and play people/play more tough road/neutral ooc games. They need to wake up and get with reality already.
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How many good/great teams would you like them to go play on the road? They played at UNLV and at Miss St this past year.You only have so many OOC games and only so many are on the road.
How many other perennial top 20 teams go out on the road and play tough OOC games especially when they have an athletic dept. to pay for? Not to mention they played X, OSU, Ole Miss, GM. and UCLA which was a home and away scheduled four years ago.
UC got hosed. Should have been a 6 at the very worst......They play in a darn good conference and if the usual top programs in WSU and SMU get back to normal, which they will along with Memphis, then it becomes an excellent conference.
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03-18-2019, 09:05 AM
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This is the first year that I can remember not having a bunch of complaints about who was left out. The only swap I would make is UNCG for Ohio State. Leaving out NC State sent a message. You play the worst non-con in the nation you are going to pay for it.
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03-18-2019, 09:45 AM
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Agree hawk, the committee did a pretty good job. there may(will) be complaints about seeding but they pretty much nailed the at large teams. No NCSU, Indiana, OSU was iffy and UNCG probably was the only questionable ommision.
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03-18-2019, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
This is the first year that I can remember not having a bunch of complaints about who was left out. The only swap I would make is UNCG for Ohio State. Leaving out NC State sent a message. You play the worst non-con in the nation you are going to pay for it.
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Totally agree. With NCState's non-con schedule, they needed to perform above average in a tough ACC. They didn't. They went 3-9 in Q1 games.
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03-18-2019, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by steve
How many good/great teams would you like them to go play on the road? They played at UNLV and at Miss St this past year.You only have so many OOC games and only so many are on the road.
How many other perennial top 20 teams go out on the road and play tough OOC games especially when they have an athletic dept. to pay for? Not to mention they played X, OSU, Ole Miss, GM. and UCLA which was a home and away scheduled four years ago.
UC got hosed. Should have been a 6 at the very worst......They play in a darn good conference and if the usual top programs in WSU and SMU get back to normal, which they will along with Memphis, then it becomes an excellent conference.
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Every year they play a weaker ooc schedule and then whine about their seed. Man up and play more people. Their league is not great. Our league is even worse. If they want better than a 7 seed, they are going to have to upgrade their ooc schedule, and of course, that means going to a 15/15 or better. Things are changing, you have to be willing to leave home more, otherwise, don't complain.
Last edited by ud2; 03-18-2019 at 11:48 AM..
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03-18-2019, 11:54 AM
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SMU? Aside from when they cheat, when has SMU been any good in the last 50 years? (answer: never)
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03-18-2019, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Every year they play a weaker ooc schedule and then whine about their seed. Man up and play more people. Their league is not great. Our league is even worse. If they want better than a 7 seed, they are going to have to upgrade their ooc schedule, and of course, that means going to a 15/15 or better. Things are changing, you have to be willing to leave home more.
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Again, you're talking out of the left side of your ass which happens to be the right side of your face with that rationale. That's strictly your incorrect opinion. I listed 6-7 OOC teams they played and the reason why they play more home games and you can't even counter that.
Their league is a **** good league. Watch Memphis next year.SMU (lost star players) and Wichita (lost star players) and both were top 10 teams a year ago. Watch them come back to life next year. And their middle-of-the-pack team, Tulsa, whipped up on UD. Houston, UC, UCF all hit top 20-25 this year with Houston a top 5. And Temple, who use to own the A10, is in the tourney again.
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03-18-2019, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by steve
Again, you're talking out of the left side of your ass which happens to be the right side of your face with that rationale. That's strictly your incorrect opinion. I listed 6-7 OOC teams they played and the reason why they play more home games and you can't even counter that.
Their league is a **** good league. Watch Memphis next year.SMU (lost star players) and Wichita (lost star players) and both were top 10 teams a year ago. Watch them come back to life next year. And their middle-of-the-pack team, Tulsa, whipped up on UD. Houston, UC, UCF all hit top 20-25 this year with Houston a top 5. And Temple, who use to own the A10, is in the tourney again.
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They played 18 home games and only 13 road/neutral and are whining about their seed. Boohoo, cry me a river. They chose to sit home and take the easy way out.
They only played 2 Kenpom tier A ooc games, that is not good enough, we played 4.
Their 44 sos is good though.
They pull the same garbage UD does every year, refusing to leave home more often and then whining about their seed.
I will concede that the AAC was better than I thought this year.
Last edited by ud2; 03-18-2019 at 01:56 PM..
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03-18-2019, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
They pull the same garbage UD does every year, refusing to leave home more often and then whining about their seed.
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Umm, the last time UD was in the tourney, we got a 7-seed. And I didn't hear too many folks complaining about that - other than having to play an under-seeded Wichita St. team.
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03-18-2019, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Umm, the last time UD was in the tourney, we got a 7-seed. And I didn't hear too many folks complaining about that - other than having to play an under-seeded Wichita St. team.
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Umm, IINM, I am pretty sure that people on here were shocked in 2015 when we got put in the First 4...I will have to go back and read the reactions to the 11, 11, 7, and 7 seeds under Archie.
IINM, there was also griping about having to play Wichita State in 2016, can not remember if the griping was about the 7 seed or WSU supposedly being incorrectly seeded.
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03-18-2019, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Umm, IINM, I am pretty sure that people on here were shocked in 2015 when we got put in the First 4...I will have to go back and read the reactions to the 11, 11, 7, and 7 seeds under Archie.
IINM, there was griping about having to play Wichita State, can not remember if the griping was about the 7 seed or WSU supposedly being incorrectly seeded.
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IIRC, the griping had to do with WSU being a 10-Seed and, thus, our opponent. I think their RPI at the time was in the mid-to-low 20s (and maybe even better), which should have qualified them for a seed no worse than our own. Plus, the fact that The Committee pitted two strong non-P5 teams against each other, to help increase the probability of more P5 teams making it farther in The Dance also pi$$ed some people off (myself included).
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03-18-2019, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Umm, IINM, I am pretty sure that people on here were shocked in 2015 when we got put in the First 4...I will have to go back and read the reactions to the 11, 11, 7, and 7 seeds under Archie.
IINM, there was also griping about having to play Wichita State in 2016, can not remember if the griping was about the 7 seed or WSU supposedly being incorrectly seeded.
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The griping wasn’t about the seed. Some/most were suggesting we should have been the 10-seed, not WSU. Most projections had us in the 8/9 seed line.
And that was 2017, not 2016.
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03-23-2019, 10:18 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Has there ever been a day in NCAA Tournament history with a higher percentage of blowouts than today? “Nova, Murray State, Minnesota, and Florida all look like they’re going to be 15+ point losses, and that’s half of today’s games. And Baylor lost to Gonzaga by only 12, but I think they were down by double-digits for most of the game, so it wasn’t really that close. 5/8 blowouts.
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03-23-2019, 10:29 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Auburn/Kansas may be another blowout candidate if the first 12 minutes are any indication.
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03-23-2019, 11:00 PM
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Auburn is shooting lights out vs Kansas. Bryce Brown is lighting them up (just like he did us). They live and die by the three. Right now, they are thriving
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03-24-2019, 12:42 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Yep. The first 2 games of the day were worth watching. The rest drove me to watch reruns of action movies like Speed and National Treasure. March Madness turned into March Badness. Hopefully, the Sunday contests are more competitive.
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03-24-2019, 01:33 AM
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If all goes according to plan tomorrow, I will have won all 16 second round games. Just need an upset win by Buffalo. The rest can be top seed wins (have Oregon defeating UC Irvine). Of course, I have FSU winning the whole enchilada so not really a chance to win the whole thing but my bracket is currently sitting in the top 98% of all brackets in ESPN.
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03-24-2019, 08:16 AM
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Flyer Volleyball Superfan. Almost 8,000 Posts To Prove It.
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
If all goes according to plan tomorrow, I will have won all 16 second round games. Just need an upset win by Buffalo. The rest can be top seed wins (have Oregon defeating UC Irvine). Of course, I have FSU winning the whole enchilada so not really a chance to win the whole thing but my bracket is currently sitting in the top 98% of all brackets in ESPN.
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Good luck. Awesome start.
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03-24-2019, 01:05 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Auburn/Kansas may be another blowout candidate if the first 12 minutes are any indication.
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Add Tennessee/Iowa to that list. 49-28 Vols at the half.
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03-24-2019, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Add Tennessee/Iowa to that list. 49-28 Vols at the half.
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Tennessee now up by one. They have turned into a turnover machine.
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03-24-2019, 04:29 PM
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Tennessee wins in OT. Iowa looked like UD in a couple of our comebacks from +20 down. Stay the course, continue your game and play tough D. TBF though, that call against Tennessee on the 3pt attempt was as horrible.
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03-24-2019, 04:34 PM
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Watching many of the games, there's one thing that sticks out to me. Many of the guards on these teams, in addition to shooting the 3 and driving the lane, have the ability to pull up and shoot a 2. So they'll drive part way, then stop and shoot, maybe foul line, maybe a bit closer or further back. That seems to be something our guards rarely do. We either drove it all the way to the basket (or tried to pass it to a big), or took the 3. The ability to create this 2 point shot and be good at it is something I think is important and that we are missing.
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03-24-2019, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
Watching many of the games, there's one thing that sticks out to me. Many of the guards on these teams, in addition to shooting the 3 and driving the lane, have the ability to pull up and shoot a 2. So they'll drive part way, then stop and shoot, maybe foul line, maybe a bit closer or further back. That seems to be something our guards rarely do. We either drove it all the way to the basket (or tried to pass it to a big), or took the 3. The ability to create this 2 point shot and be good at it is something I think is important and that we are missing.
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I said this in another thread that we need a guard who can create his own shot, whether it be a step back shot, dribble drive pull up for a shot or up fake go by for a jump shot.
One other thing I notice as I watch is that all in all even though we are disappointed in no NCAA tourneys the last two years things are not that bad in Flyer land. I have heard this about P5 teams this tournament:
First NCAA win in 14 years
First NCAA win since 2010
First NCAA appearance since 2011
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03-24-2019, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
Watching many of the games, there's one thing that sticks out to me. Many of the guards on these teams, in addition to shooting the 3 and driving the lane, have the ability to pull up and shoot a 2. So they'll drive part way, then stop and shoot, maybe foul line, maybe a bit closer or further back. That seems to be something our guards rarely do. We either drove it all the way to the basket (or tried to pass it to a big), or took the 3. The ability to create this 2 point shot and be good at it is something I think is important and that we are missing.
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This is an absolutely superb comment! We really don't have anyone who can shoot the ball off the dribble at any position. This is what the high quality guards and shooting forwards are able to do. In fact, of our three guards who played, two of them are decent at shooting the three ball, and all three are mediocre in dribble penetration. But none of the three have the ability to shoot the ball off the dribble. I am so glad someone recognized this. Good job TXFlyer! Quite frankly, and to our three guards' credit, shooting off the dribble is a bit of a dying art...only the very good or great guards are able to do it. I think that is a byproduct of 30 years of the three-point shot. Why shoot off the dribble when you can try to "square up for a three?"
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03-24-2019, 07:48 PM
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Good observation TX and others. Jordan Davis hit some pull up jump shots his freshman year but that seems like it disappeared this year.
The other thing is other than maybe Crutcher, none of the guards/wings can make that tough, contested shot when the defense is draped all over you. In these late game situations you're not getting easy looks
as an aside Aubrey Dawkins was a close miss for Archie but he looked dynamite today for UCF
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03-24-2019, 11:51 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Good observation TX and others. Jordan Davis hit some pull up jump shots his freshman year but that seems like it disappeared this year.
The other thing is other than maybe Crutcher, none of the guards/wings can make that tough, contested shot when the defense is draped all over you. In these late game situations you're not getting easy looks
as an aside Aubrey Dawkins was a close miss for Archie but he looked dynamite today for UCF
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Vee Sanford had a real nice shot from the elbow.
__________________
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03-25-2019, 06:51 AM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
Watching many of the games, there's one thing that sticks out to me. Many of the guards on these teams, in addition to shooting the 3 and driving the lane, have the ability to pull up and shoot a 2. So they'll drive part way, then stop and shoot, maybe foul line, maybe a bit closer or further back. That seems to be something our guards rarely do. We either drove it all the way to the basket (or tried to pass it to a big), or took the 3. The ability to create this 2 point shot and be good at it is something I think is important and that we are missing.
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Things I noticed was that when the guards took the 3 most times ( or at least it seemed) it went in, then rebounding was a team sport event, and lastly most everyone could make a FT.
Kept saying to myself .... " that's why their there and we're here".
Last edited by NJFlyr71; 03-25-2019 at 06:57 AM..
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