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02-14-2014, 01:30 PM
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First Four Out?
CBS's Jerry Palm has new Valentine Bracket Out, with UD in his First Four Out? What you think? Are really that close? To me, he might be right, but a numerical RPI count says otherwise; as based on RPI counting, I think he the Flyers might still be in the so called "Next Four Out", which Palm doesn't do. But as of yesterday, Joe Lunardi, still has us Next Four Out. What's their different perspective on UD?
Also, Palm has Richmond In, and SJU and UD First four Out, but Lunardi has Richmond and Joes First Four Out, and UD Next Four Out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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02-14-2014, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
CBS's Jerry Palm has new Valentine Bracket Out, with UD in his First Four Out? What you think? Are really that close? To me, he might be right, but a numerical RPI count says otherwise; as based on RPI counting, I think he the Flyers might still be in the so called "Next Four Out", which Palm doesn't do. But as of yesterday, Joe Lunardi, still has us Next Four Out. What's their different perspective on UD?
Also, Palm has Richmond In, and SJU and UD First four Out, but Lunardi has Richmond and Joes First Four Out, and UD Next Four Out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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The differential between all those teams is infinitesimal. No point of a great debate now. All bubble teams can help or hurt themselves over the last few weeks of the season and conference tourneys. Unlikely and probably impossible for a team to take care of their own business and get left out because the other bubble teams also took care of business. Many bubble teams will hurt another by beating them.
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02-14-2014, 01:43 PM
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Agreed, but based on current profiles and data, is Palm right? Is UD that close based on current information and/or if the selection Sunday was this weekend? And go a head an make believe will play Richmond this weekend, as we will at home in the season finale, would a win this weekend against Richmond based on current profiles and RPI, would that get the Flyers from Palm's First Four Out to the Dance? Assuming it ended their and conference tourneys not with-standing. Would Palm then have UD in his pre-championship week Bracket?
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02-14-2014, 01:43 PM
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God Bless Jerry Palm
but he is arguably the most inaccurate bracketologist who still gets a pay check. His primary concern is selling CBS product and they are affiliated with the A-10. UMHO UD has a way to go before they reach the last four out category. A win over SJU or SLU may get them there.
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02-14-2014, 01:53 PM
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No, they are not that close according to current information. More like "Next Four Out" or 9-12 out. They will get pushed back further than that once the conference tournaments hit, so that's why this "we can still get in with a 9-7 A10 record" stuff is a pipe dream. If they win out, they have a great shot at it... if they lose 1, they have a decent shot. But if they only lose 1 of @ SJU, v. UMass, @ SLU, I'll eat my hat.
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02-14-2014, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse
but he is arguably the most inaccurate bracketologist who still gets a pay check. His primary concern is selling CBS product and they are affiliated with the A-10. UMHO UD has a way to go before they reach the last four out category. A win over SJU or SLU may get them there.
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I disagree.
Okay, I am a sucker and I will debate a hypothetical selection that has a lot more meaningful data to come.
Both Palm and Lunardi have Georgetown in the last 4 in.
Georgetown 15-9, 6-6 RPI 55
UD 17-8, 5-5 RPI 58
vs top 50, 51-100, 100-200, 200+
GT 3-5, 2-2, 5-1, 5-1
UD 3-4, 3-1, 7-3, 4-0
UD better vs top 50, 100-200 and no 200+ losses.
Right now I still probably would give Georgetwon the nod with best wins over Mich st, VCU and Kansas ST but they did lose to Northeastern.
But don't tell me it is not close.
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02-14-2014, 02:01 PM
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To be in UD cannot lose more than one game before the A10 tourney, I think it is pretty simple, and that one game might need to be against SLU. If the team has won nine of it's last ten it would be pretty hard to ignore. But that 10-6 record probably needs to be in the top 4 of the league to be a guarantee. If the team loses two games they would need at least two wins in the A10 tourney to have a chance. Basically they might be playing elimination games against st joes, richmond, umass, GW
If they win all of their remaining six games I would be breathing pretty easy unless they were blown out in the first round of the A10 tourney. I think the team is thinking one game at a time instead of our conversation right now.
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02-14-2014, 02:05 PM
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Brian, I think you meant SLU, not GW.
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02-14-2014, 02:08 PM
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Palm has traditionally favored teams with "good wins" while ignoring their "bad losses" more than some. I don't now his track record in comparision to other bracketologists in terms of predicting the bracket, in truth, the closer you get to the end and their final bracket, there's only a few teams to debate, so its about seeding at that point from a broad perspective. Anyhoo, Palm's preference for good wins is what has propped UD up in his eyes all season long.
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02-14-2014, 02:12 PM
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I agree with Palm on this. UD's top 100 record compared to many bubble clubs is strong. That's the reason I believe that winning 4 of last six still gives Flyers a very decent shot. The remaining RPI's of five of those six opponents, is very good, down right excellent. Win four, and advance at-least one game in A10 tourney, I think we still have a decent, at-least a 50/50 ,shot.
Last edited by Beatty Town Coach; 02-14-2014 at 02:15 PM..
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02-14-2014, 02:22 PM
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Jerry Palm is out of his mind. We are probably in the 'Second 12 out'. All we have to do is keep winning. Like I said previously, if we get to 19-8, I will actually start checking those mouth-breather blogs and hobbitology projections. At 19-8, I would have to believe we would be entering the 'Next 4 out' range.
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02-14-2014, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
Jerry Palm is out of his mind. We are probably in the 'Second 12 out'. All we have to do is keep winning. Like I said previously, if we get to 19-8, I will actually start checking those mouth-breather blogs and hobbitology projections. At 19-8, I would have to believe we would be entering the 'Next 4 out' range.
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They have had a group of bracketlogists including Palm, St. Joe's Joe L, etc. and they did a mock selection the last two days. We were 3rd team out -- see tweet below so I guess all 12 sportswriters are out of their minds … You can follow it on twitter at #mockselection
Joe Lunardi @ESPNLunardi 3h
FIRST FOUR OUT: St. John's, Richmond, Dayton, Southern Miss (will be First Five Out, including St. Joe's, if Illinois upsets Michigan St).
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02-14-2014, 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
Jerry Palm is out of his mind. We are probably in the 'Second 12 out'. All we have to do is keep winning. Like I said previously, if we get to 19-8, I will actually start checking those mouth-breather blogs and hobbitology projections. At 19-8, I would have to believe we would be entering the 'Next 4 out' range.
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Why bother reading if we get to 19-8?
Why are you reading this thread?
Just wait until selection Sunday.
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02-14-2014, 03:32 PM
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At this point, I think if we get 1 win in the tournament for every loss in the regular season going forward we'll be in good shape. That puts us at 23 wins. 23-9 (6-0 but lose first game in the tournament) or 23-10 (5-1 and win 1 in the tournament) or 23-11 (4-2 and win 2 in the tournament) or 23-12 (3-3 but reach the finals) or 23-13 (2-4 but win the whole thing).
With 4 more games against the top 50 and then the touranment, in any of the above scenarios we are most likely looking at 3 or 4 more top 50 wins to get there.
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02-14-2014, 03:41 PM
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Jerry Palm has Valentine's Day confused with April fools.
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02-14-2014, 03:49 PM
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All these guys get paid to speculate. Keep it simple, win out, very difficult to do, and win two games in the A-10 tournament and we're in. Granted, easier said than done. Bottom line, we do control our own destiny. Don't count on any help from anyone. Can St Louis go through the conference without a loss? Time will tell.
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02-14-2014, 04:30 PM
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Palm has Missouri and Baylor in the field.
Only once in history has a team finished four games below .500 in league play and gotten into the NCAAs, and that was over ten years ago, and involved a very special circumstance. So, it's odd that Baylor would be in at all.
So, with that in mind, I don't know why he'd have Baylor in ahead of Dayton.
I believe Mizzou already has six SEC losses. Last year, the SEC was a better conference, and Kentucky was left out with a 12-6 SEC record. Ole Miss got in with a 12-6, but that was after they won the SEC Tournament, and they STILL only got a #12 seed.
So, the fact that Mizzou is 5-6 in the SEC probably means they're in trouble.
I think Dayton is better than both those teams. I don't know if I'd have Dayton in the field or not, but I'd definitely have them in over either of those.
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02-14-2014, 04:46 PM
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NCAA mock selection going on right now:
Check out @ESPNLunardi's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...61741309267968
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02-14-2014, 04:56 PM
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I guess these guys get paid to do the bubble watch so I'm thinking they may know a little something about it. I'm not a big Lunardi fan but he normally is pretty spot on.
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02-14-2014, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by jpk4ud
I guess these guys get paid to do the bubble watch so I'm thinking they may know a little something about it. I'm not a big Lunardi fan but he normally is pretty spot on.
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yes and this is the media NCAA Selection with the selection committee providing guidance.
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02-14-2014, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
Why are you reading this thread?
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I'm asking myself the very same question right now.
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02-14-2014, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
I'm asking myself the very same question right now.
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Because you wanted to see what the so called experts are saying about our Flyers. Sometime you can be too close to the subject to have a clear view...that's what my eye doctor tells me!
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02-14-2014, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by jpk4ud
I guess these guys get paid to do the bubble watch so I'm thinking they may know a little something about it. I'm not a big Lunardi fan but he normally is pretty spot on.
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He's pretty good, but I think has a mole in the selection committee - if you notice each year, he makes a couple last minute changes to his projections just before the brackets are officially announced. It's smart....he makes part of his living as the Bracket Hobbit....he needs to have the inside or ESPN will just find another dude living in his mother's basement to study the details and project 365/24/7.
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02-14-2014, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
.....but I think has a mole in the selection committee ...
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All the activity today is with the selection committee.... This isn't about palm or lunardi. they are tweeting about what's going on in the media mock NCAA selection that happens every February every year.
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02-14-2014, 05:50 PM
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02-14-2014, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow
At this point, I think if we get 1 win in the tournament for every loss in the regular season going forward we'll be in good shape. That puts us at 23 wins. 23-9 (6-0 but lose first game in the tournament) or 23-10 (5-1 and win 1 in the tournament) or 23-11 (4-2 and win 2 in the tournament) or 23-12 (3-3 but reach the finals) or 23-13 (2-4 but win the whole thing).
With 4 more games against the top 50 and then the touranment, in any of the above scenarios we are most likely looking at 3 or 4 more top 50 wins to get there.
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I like how you're thinking . . .
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02-14-2014, 06:08 PM
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This mock selection is being done by guys from all kinds of affiliations, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, etc. They do this for a living and watch more college basketball than anyone on this board. I believe there is validity to this mock selection. What this tells me and I have believed for the past month or so, this is one if not the weakest bubble I have seen. Hence, I believe that Dayton could or would find themselves as one of the first four out if the selection was done today. It is not. These guys have a chance to make the tourney, they must start playing their best basketball of the season beginning Wed.
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02-14-2014, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
Brian, I think you meant SLU, not GW.
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No, I actually meant GW. There are several A10 teams which may or may not make the ncaa tournament depending upon their results in the A10 tournament. GW could still be one of those teams. If we play GW in the first round of the a10 tournament and beat them it could knock them out. There will be several teams that need two a10 tournament wins to cement themselves in the ncaa tournament. I believe that if UD loses two games they will need to win at least two in the a10 tournament and they might need two wins with a single loss.
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02-14-2014, 07:03 PM
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I gotcha. It looked like you were intending to list teams from the remaining schedule ( Richmond, Joes, etc.). I follow you! I guess I didn't think playing GW in first A10 tourney game was very likely. Thanks!
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02-14-2014, 07:14 PM
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I don't get that
Originally Posted by UDBrian
No, I actually meant GW. There are several A10 teams which may or may not make the ncaa tournament depending upon their results in the A10 tournament. GW could still be one of those teams. If we play GW in the first round of the a10 tournament and beat them it could knock them out. There will be several teams that need two a10 tournament wins to cement themselves in the ncaa tournament. I believe that if UD loses two games they will need to win at least two in the a10 tournament and they might need two wins with a single loss.
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The part I can't understand is that you think if we go 5-1 to end regular season, but that we still need two wins in A10 Tourney. Wow, I know what you are saying, but with the remaining RPI's left on regular season schedule, I just cannot imagine going 5-1 against that collective group and winning one in conference tourney, and that somehow not be enough. Especially when, in all likelihood that would mean losing to an post-season caliber team in game two of conference tourney. That has me curious as to what our RPI would be if we went 5-1 (losing only at SLU), and then beat Rhody, Duquesne, LaSalle, or whomever in first conference tourney game? Anyone on the board willing to run that scenario to see what UD's RPI would be at that point? A 5-1 conference finish gives the Flyers a likely 10-6 Top 100 record including 6-5 against the Top 50.
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02-14-2014, 10:20 PM
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Bottom line is we are being compared to other teams. There are probably 10-12 teams in line for the last 4 spots and we are in the middle of that mix. I don't know what the other teams are going to do, but if we pick up 2 more top 50 wins- Umass and Richmond, as well as another top 100- LaSalle, and beat Duquesne, the other teams involved will really have to have one heck of a finish to beat us out. I would really like our chances if this happens.
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02-15-2014, 03:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
That has me curious as to what our RPI would be if we went 5-1 (losing only at SLU), and then beat Rhody, Duquesne, LaSalle, or whomever in first conference tourney game? Anyone on the board willing to run that scenario to see what UD's RPI would be at that point? A 5-1 conference finish gives the Flyers a likely 10-6 Top 100 record including 6-5 against the Top 50.
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Answer is on Twitter.
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02-15-2014, 06:20 AM
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The only loss that would be "acceptable" would be in St. Louis. Trying to be objective, my feeling is that, even if we win the other games, a loss at St. Joes will seriously hurt our chances and require making it to the finals of the A10 tournament.
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02-15-2014, 07:28 AM
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California (who we beat) and have comparable resume to less the Arizona win) is in at a 9 seed with an rpi of 49. Running the rpi wizard at rpi forecast puts us at rpi 46 or 47 for every 9-7 scenario. I did not run a scenario of losing to Duquesne. 10-6 gets us to 40-43, but once again it's not about individual rpi as much as the teams rpi teams you beat.
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02-15-2014, 08:21 AM
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Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog
Through games of Feb 13, 2014.
Dayton
Conference: A10
Expected RPI: 53.0
Current RPI: 58
Expected SOS: 59
Current SOS: 64
Current Record: 17-8
Expected Record: 20-11
Current Conf Record: 5-5
Expected Conf Record: 8-8
Probability of Auto Bid: 6.34%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 5-0
Current OOC Record: 12-3
Expected OOC Record: 12-3
Expected OOC RPI: 47
Expected OOC SOS: 103
RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD
Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
23-8 33.7 2.43%
22-9 39.9 15.26%
21-10 47.3 30.06%
20-11 55.9 32.67%
19-12 66.9 15.42%
18-13 78.5 3.82%
17-14 89.9 0.33%
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02-15-2014, 08:58 AM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
For all you analytics nerds, take a look at this. These guys are eggheads who have pit together an interesting system and have predicted all but one at large bid correctly over the past two years. Take note on where they currently have the Flyers.
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02-15-2014, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
For all you analytics nerds, take a look at this. These guys are eggheads who have pit together an interesting system and have predicted all but one at large bid correctly over the past two years. Take note on where they currently have the Flyers.
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Looks like they have Dayton in Dayton.
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02-15-2014, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
For all you analytics nerds, take a look at this. These guys are eggheads who have pit together an interesting system and have predicted all but one at large bid correctly over the past two years. Take note on where they currently have the Flyers.
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It would be so nice to see Dayton in and Georgetown out!
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02-15-2014, 11:47 AM
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Makes me smile
Originally Posted by TA111
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
For all you analytics nerds, take a look at this. These guys are eggheads who have pit [sic] together an interesting system and have predicted all but one at large bid correctly over the past two years. Take note on where they currently have the Flyers.
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The Flyers are 3-3 with three games yet to play against that projected group of at-large teams:
Wins - Gonzaga, California, George Washington
Losses - SLU, VCU, Richmond
Yet to play - U-Mass, SLU, Richmond
First team out - St Joe's
Dayton is very much alive - just win the games you're supposed to win.
Also liking 6 A-10 teams versus 3 Big Least teams -
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02-15-2014, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
Looks like they have Dayton in Dayton.
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No, Dayton is not one of the last four at-large teams in this projection.
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02-15-2014, 11:57 AM
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Joey Brackets 2/15/14 11:56 AM
just confirmed that Dayton and Richmond are in the group of four just below the first four out of the NCAA. SJU is one of the first four out.
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02-15-2014, 12:08 PM
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Just win. Then all this hypothetical crap becomes moot.
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02-15-2014, 12:09 PM
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not a chance. big east is the 4th rated conference and a-10 is 6th.
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02-15-2014, 12:13 PM
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02-15-2014, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by toledodan
not a chance. big east is the 4th rated conference and a-10 is 6th.
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Conferences don't win bids. Teams do.
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02-15-2014, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Conferences don't win bids. Teams do.
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yeah if they win the conference tourny
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02-15-2014, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by toledodan
not a chance. big east is the 4th rated conference and a-10 is 6th.
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Entirely irrelevant. The selection doesn't even have conference affiliations in front of them. It's each team for themselves.
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02-15-2014, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
The part I can't understand is that you think if we go 5-1 to end regular season, but that we still need two wins in A10 Tourney. Wow, I know what you are saying, but with the remaining RPI's left on regular season schedule, I just cannot imagine going 5-1 against that collective group and winning one in conference tourney, and that somehow not be enough. Especially when, in all likelihood that would mean losing to an post-season caliber team in game two of conference tourney. That has me curious as to what our RPI would be if we went 5-1 (losing only at SLU), and then beat Rhody, Duquesne, LaSalle, or whomever in first conference tourney game? Anyone on the board willing to run that scenario to see what UD's RPI would be at that point? A 5-1 conference finish gives the Flyers a likely 10-6 Top 100 record including 6-5 against the Top 50.
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My concern is that even if we finish 5-1 a loss in the first round of the A10 tournament to GW could still knock us out. There could be several A10 teams with a chance to make the tournament with a couple of wins. And if they beat UD in the tournament it could knock us out. If GW is an absolute lock at that point maybe the first round loss doesn't hurt. It is probably unlikely that UD would face GW in the 1st round though
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02-15-2014, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
No, Dayton is not one of the last four at-large teams in this projection.
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Actually, yes they are. They are hte last team above the "bubble burst" line.
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02-15-2014, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian
My concern is that even if we finish 5-1 a loss in the first round of the A10 tournament to GW could still knock us out. There could be several A10 teams with a chance to make the tournament with a couple of wins. And if they beat UD in the tournament it could knock us out. If GW is an absolute lock at that point maybe the first round loss doesn't hurt. It is probably unlikely that UD would face GW in the 1st round though
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You're thinking too narrowly, it's more than just a couple of A-10 teams involved. It depends on many other teams final resume. I will say this, a 5-1 finsh would mean we're 9-1 in the last ten with probably 5 top 50 wins. I will go on record and say that will definitely be enough.
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02-15-2014, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by toledodan
not a chance. big east is the 4th rated conference and a-10 is 6th.
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The bottom of the A10 is weaker than the Big East, but it isn't beating up the top of the league. So, they have more teams in good shape.
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02-15-2014, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
The bottom of the A10 is weaker than the Big East, but it isn't beating up the top of the league. So, they have more teams in good shape.
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That is right on point and will continue to be the case until the Big East expands to 12. The weak bottom of the A10 gives us more Top 50 teams. In reality 10 to 10 would be fairly equal this year.
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02-15-2014, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
That is right on point and will continue to be the case until the Big East expands to 12. The weak bottom of the A10 gives us more Top 50 teams. In reality 10 to 10 would be fairly equal this year.
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and that's why i said not a chance of 6 a-10 teams in and just 3 big east teams.
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02-15-2014, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
For all you analytics nerds, take a look at this. These guys are eggheads who have pit together an interesting system and have predicted all but one at large bid correctly over the past two years. Take note on where they currently have the Flyers.
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They NCAA should go to a computer formula like this rather than the "eye-test" or changing criteria every year with different members, etc. Let's take the subjectivity and the name on the jersey out of the equation.
Dayton is high in this formula because road/neutral wins and because 2 of 3 bad losses have been on the road which aren't so bad.
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02-15-2014, 03:37 PM
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Dayton's bad losses were to teams in the top 42% of all division 1 college basketball teams.
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02-15-2014, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
They NCAA should go to a computer formula like this rather than the "eye-test" or changing criteria every year with different members, etc. Let's take the subjectivity and the name on the jersey out of the equation.
Dayton is high in this formula because road/neutral wins and because 2 of 3 bad losses have been on the road which aren't so bad.
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Football had that for years, and they wanted a committee.
Basketball has a committee, and wants a computer based system.
just sayin. People will find what's wrong before they find what's right. When they try and fix what's wrong, they will fix it wrong.
The committee isn't dumb. They don't look at things so simply that they'll take one team over another because they're in a better conference. Or that a certain conference should get a certain number of bids because of its overall strength.
It's just that it is a subjective process, and not all of the individuals collectively agree on the best way to measure the overall strength. That's why it's inconsistent.
Computer rankings, on the other hand, are always consistent. With that being said, every year the BCS either changed it's formula, or there were changes made to the computer rankings that made up the formula. So, how is that better??
This is a long way of me saying that one way isn't really any better than the other. I'm still uncertain as to what my personal preference is.
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02-15-2014, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew
Football had that for years, and they wanted a committee.
Basketball has a committee, and wants a computer based system.
just sayin. People will find what's wrong before they find what's right. When they try and fix what's wrong, they will fix it wrong.
The committee isn't dumb. They don't look at things so simply that they'll take one team over another because they're in a better conference. Or that a certain conference should get a certain number of bids because of its overall strength.
It's just that it is a subjective process, and not all of the individuals collectively agree on the best way to measure the overall strength. That's why it's inconsistent.
Computer rankings, on the other hand, are always consistent. With that being said, every year the BCS either changed it's formula, or there were changes made to the computer rankings that made up the formula. So, how is that better??
This is a long way of me saying that one way isn't really any better than the other. I'm still uncertain as to what my personal preference is.
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BCS computer rankings are based upon who is the best team; dance card is all about the committee being consistent -- subtle but important distinction.
Teams should know explicitly what the criteria are at the beginning of the season. Right now, murky.
Btw, guess who benefits when the committee deviates from consistent criteria -- BCS schools and guess who gets shafted -- mid-majors! This human subjectivity gave 10 more bids to BCS schools and 10 less to mid-majors from 2001-2013 with the most egregious year being 2008 when Dayton was shafted as well. This takes the name on the jersey bs away and this basis is real. This is based upon dance card methodology that just tries to ensure consistency.
Last edited by ruechalgrin; 02-15-2014 at 04:34 PM..
Reason: Typo
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02-15-2014, 04:30 PM
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Xubrew, you are right on. What the Dance Card analytics does is factor in the committee's bias, such as top 50 wins being more important or SOS. Each year it seems the committee puts a little more emphasis on certain criteria. What I like about the site is they have been able to pretty accurately determine the relative strength of each criteria and that is why they rarely miss an at large selection.
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02-15-2014, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
Dayton's bad losses were to teams in the top 42% of all division 1 college basketball teams.
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Agreed, but kenpom has a good article that RPI considers home, neutral, and away, but good and bad losses do not and they should. He says you shoud subtract -40 RPI for away win/loss, no change for neutral, and add +40 for home win/loss.
In other words, our Ole Miss win versus #60 should be considered in nitty gritty report a to 25 win because at Ole Miss so 60 -40 = 20 win. Similarly GT would be about 100 win and IllSt and RI would be 100 losses. On the other hand, USC loss horrific as makes it almost a 200 loss. The NCAA should make this change for nitty gritty reports.
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02-15-2014, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Actually, yes they are. They are hte last team above the "bubble burst" line.
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Maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing, but the link I'm seeing shows 8 teams between Dayton and the Bubble Burst line?
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02-15-2014, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
Maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing, but the link I'm seeing shows 8 teams between Dayton and the Bubble Burst line?
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As of 2/14 they have the Flyers solidly in. The at large bubble bursts at around 48. Flyers are at 39. The reason the bubble bursts at 48 is because many of those above the line will end up being conf tourney champs.
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02-15-2014, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
As of 2/14 they have the Flyers solidly in. The at large bubble bursts at around 48. Flyers are at 39. The reason the bubble bursts at 48 is because many of those above the line will end up being conf tourney champs.
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Yes, but you must remember there will be bubble busters that will win conference tournaments and drop the bottom 8 or so off the board. The real cut line will end up around 35-40.
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02-15-2014, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69
Yes, but you must remember there will be bubble busters that will win conference tournaments and drop the bottom 8 or so off the board. The real cut line will end up around 35-40.
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I was straining my brain to believe that UD could be considered one of the first four out, thinking at RPI 57 we had to be further out than that.
So, I took the current RPI, and started penciling in autobids (based on conf record as of now), and then adding in top 40 rpi teams blindly, and looking at what's left. Here are the conferences that could steal a bid, in my mind.
First is the MAC, currently being led by Toledo at RPI 29. If someone takes out Toledo, that could steal a bid. (Though, Toledo's stats don't look great.)
Second is the West Coast. Gonzaga should be in at 20, then you have BYU and Saint Mary's at 48 and 52 respectively. That's the bubble area. If someone else comes in and grabs the tourney, there could be a bid.
Next is Mountain West. San Diego State and New Mexico should be in, but can someone take them out in the tourney, that could be a third stolen bid.
I don't see anyone taking out Wichita State in the Missouri Valley, but you could put that in the list as a fourth bid, unless Indiana State at 53 is already in and wins it.
In Conference USA, Southern Miss is the leader, but the tourney might steal another.
All other non-power conferences should be one-bids only, no steals possible. We could get a steal in a power conference, but with 3-6 bids already almost guaranteed, someone without a bid being able to run the table through existing bids in a tourney will be rough.
So, 68 bids. 19 most likely one-bid conferences. Puts us at RPI 49 as the "line" in the sand. 5 possible steals, and that could go down to 44.
Did I miss anything?
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02-15-2014, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
I was straining my brain to believe that UD could be considered one of the first four out, thinking at RPI 57 we had to be further out than that.
So, I took the current RPI, and started penciling in autobids (based on conf record as of now), and then adding in top 40 rpi teams blindly, and looking at what's left. Here are the conferences that could steal a bid, in my mind.
First is the MAC, currently being led by Toledo at RPI 29. If someone takes out Toledo, that could steal a bid. (Though, Toledo's stats don't look great.)
Second is the West Coast. Gonzaga should be in at 20, then you have BYU and Saint Mary's at 48 and 52 respectively. That's the bubble area. If someone else comes in and grabs the tourney, there could be a bid.
Next is Mountain West. San Diego State and New Mexico should be in, but can someone take them out in the tourney, that could be a third stolen bid.
I don't see anyone taking out Wichita State in the Missouri Valley, but you could put that in the list as a fourth bid, unless Indiana State at 53 is already in and wins it.
In Conference USA, Southern Miss is the leader, but the tourney might steal another.
All other non-power conferences should be one-bids only, no steals possible. We could get a steal in a power conference, but with 3-6 bids already almost guaranteed, someone without a bid being able to run the table through existing bids in a tourney will be rough.
So, 68 bids. 19 most likely one-bid conferences. Puts us at RPI 49 as the "line" in the sand. 5 possible steals, and that could go down to 44.
Did I miss anything?
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Toledo lost today by 21 to Eastern Michigan. That will hurt their RPI, and another loss could knock them out of at-large consideration and put the MAC back as a 1 bid league.
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02-15-2014, 07:24 PM
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Ugh.
When will we have a thread titled "What's our seeding going to be?" Endless gibberish about our positioning on the bubble amounts to little more than pointless mental ************.
Just win.
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02-15-2014, 07:25 PM
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Guess that's a word that's not allowed to be used on the board. It rhymes with perturbation.
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02-15-2014, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
Toledo lost today by 21 to Eastern Michigan. That will hurt their RPI, and another loss could knock them out of at-large consideration and put the MAC back as a 1 bid league.
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I suggest you watch the Dance Card video I linked to above. While RPI is used in several of the criteria the committee uses, your specific RPI is not indicative of a bid. There are several top 50 RPI teams who will not receive an at large bid because they only have 1 or 2 top 50 wins or only 4-5 top 100 wins. Also, road and neutral court wins are very important. A winning road and neutral court record really increases your chances. This may be one reason UD missed out in some years. However, the Flyers have a winning raod and neutral court record this year which is probably an important factor. They could easily get a bid with a 50+ RPI.
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02-15-2014, 07:54 PM
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I'd just like to see the "eye test" taken out of the equation.
People swear up and down that it isn't there, but you know it is. Either go to a computer formula or keep the committee but find some way to identify the various schools (a number?) so that committee members don't know who they are dealing with. Only then can the "eye test" biases be kept out. Only then will real on-the-court performance be triumphant over perceived potential.
Remember, the season is an achievement test, not an aptitude test.
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02-15-2014, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69
Yes, but you must remember there will be bubble busters that will win conference tournaments and drop the bottom 8 or so off the board. The real cut line will end up around 35-40.
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While there will be a few, these guys take that into consideration. That's why they use 48 as bubble burst line. Most likely at least 9-10 of those teams will also win their conference tourney.
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02-15-2014, 08:01 PM
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With the loss today, I have a hard time seeing Toledo picking up an at large bid, they have few quality wins and a bunch of wins over 150+ teams. I doubt there will be eight teams that steal at large bids, more like 3 to 5. There are typically only around ten multi bid conferences, and a good chunk of those will be won by teams already in dance.
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02-15-2014, 08:26 PM
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Toledo will not be an at large team. They have zero good wins. They remind me of a team a couple years ago that won 26 games but hadn't beaten a top 50 team but had an RPI of around 30. They didn't get in. You have to beat good teams, ie, top 50.
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02-15-2014, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
While there will be a few, these guys take that into consideration. That's why they use 48 as bubble burst line. Most likely at least 9-10 of those teams will also win their conference tourney.
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From what I can tell, they do not take bubble busters into account.
For example, in their projections Kansas is considered the auto qualifier for the Big 12 and not an at-large selection. Should Texas Tech win the Big 12 tournament, Kansas becomes an at-large and the bubble line moves up one spot. Bubble busters can come from power conferences just as they come from traditional one-bid conferences with a very outstanding at-large worthy team.
Last edited by ud69; 02-15-2014 at 08:41 PM..
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02-16-2014, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick
Guess that's a word that's not allowed to be used on the board. It rhymes with perturbation.
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So what you were trying to say is you fear a lot of UDPriders may go blind?
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02-16-2014, 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by ud69
From what I can tell, they do not take bubble busters into account.
For example, in their projections Kansas is considered the auto qualifier for the Big 12 and not an at-large selection. Should Texas Tech win the Big 12 tournament, Kansas becomes an at-large and the bubble line moves up one spot. Bubble busters can come from power conferences just as they come from traditional one-bid conferences with a very outstanding at-large worthy team.
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We should go back and look at the average bubble busters in the multi-bid conferences. My guess is it would average around 2 per year. Remember, there are probably 20 single bid conferences leaving 11 multi bid.
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02-16-2014, 11:59 AM
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Announcers on Florida/Kentucky last night claiming the SEC will only get 2 bids. If true, that opens up at least 3 spots.
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02-16-2014, 12:34 PM
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Wow!
I bet I know two announcers who'll be looking for work pretty soon.
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02-16-2014, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
So what you were trying to say is you fear a lot of UDPriders may go blind?
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That's just a myth. I'm 41 years old and I have 20/15 vision.
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02-16-2014, 02:05 PM
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Who could steal a bid?
Originally Posted by Figgie123
I was straining my brain . . . Did I miss anything?
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Nope
Looking at conferences rated 11 - 32 http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html
and listing every team with an RPI better than 75 yields the following list of eleven possible bid stealers
(signature wins - RPI top 50, bad losses - RPI sub-200):
Ohio Valley
Belmont - RPI 61, record 19-8, sos 134, signature win(s) Indiana St, @ N Carolina, bad losses @ Tennessee Tech
Big West
UC Santa Barbara - RPI 72, record 14-6, sos 159, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ Cal St Fullerton
Ivy
Harvard - RPI 48, record 18-4, sos 153, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ Fla Atlantic.
Summit
N Dakota St - RPI 49, record 16-6, sos 123, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ N Dakota.
Colonial
Delaware - RPI 63, record 19-7, sos 161, signature win(s) none, bad losses - Charleston Southern.
Horizon
Wisconsin Green Bay - RPI 68, record 17-5, sos 162, signature win(s) Virginia, bad losses - none.
Conference USA
Southern Miss - RPI 40, record 19-4, sos 149, signature win(s) N Dakota St, bad losses - none.
Mid American
Toledo - RPI 24, record 20-3, sos 129, signature win(s) none, bad losses - none.
Ohio - RPI 70, record 16-7, sos 119, signature win(s) @ Richmond, Toledo, bad losses - none.
Missouri Valley
Wichita St - RPI 6, record 25-0, sos 87, signature win(s) BYU, St Louis, Tennessee, bad losses - none.
Indiana St - RPI 52, record 17-6, sos 121, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ Southern Illinois.
For comparison purposes:
Dayton - RPI 57, record 17-8, sos 66, signature win(s) Gonzaga, George Washington, bad losses - none.
Of the teams listed above, I could see Southern Miss, Toledo, and Wichita St getting in ahead of Dayton.
Caveat: there is plenty of basketball left to be played!
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02-16-2014, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by westchesterflyer
Announcers on Florida/Kentucky last night claiming the SEC will only get 2 bids. If true, that opens up at least 3 spots.
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yea but ... the announcer on the Big Least game said they were getting 5 or 6......
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02-16-2014, 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
Nope
Looking at conferences rated 11 - 32 http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html
and listing every team with an RPI better than 75 yields the following list of eleven possible bid stealers
(signature wins - RPI top 50, bad losses - RPI sub-200):
Ohio Valley
Belmont - RPI 61, record 19-8, sos 134, signature win(s) Indiana St, @ N Carolina, bad losses @ Tennessee Tech
Big West
UC Santa Barbara - RPI 72, record 14-6, sos 159, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ Cal St Fullerton
Ivy
Harvard - RPI 48, record 18-4, sos 153, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ Fla Atlantic.
Summit
N Dakota St - RPI 49, record 16-6, sos 123, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ N Dakota.
Colonial
Delaware - RPI 63, record 19-7, sos 161, signature win(s) none, bad losses - Charleston Southern.
Horizon
Wisconsin Green Bay - RPI 68, record 17-5, sos 162, signature win(s) Virginia, bad losses - none.
Conference USA
Southern Miss - RPI 40, record 19-4, sos 149, signature win(s) N Dakota St, bad losses - none.
Mid American
Toledo - RPI 24, record 20-3, sos 129, signature win(s) none, bad losses - none.
Ohio - RPI 70, record 16-7, sos 119, signature win(s) @ Richmond, Toledo, bad losses - none.
Missouri Valley
Wichita St - RPI 6, record 25-0, sos 87, signature win(s) BYU, St Louis, Tennessee, bad losses - none.
Indiana St - RPI 52, record 17-6, sos 121, signature win(s) none, bad losses @ Southern Illinois.
For comparison purposes:
Dayton - RPI 57, record 17-8, sos 66, signature win(s) Gonzaga, George Washington, bad losses - none.
Of the teams listed above, I could see Southern Miss, Toledo, and Wichita St getting in ahead of Dayton.
Caveat: there is plenty of basketball left to be played!
________________________
Certainty of death, small chance of success. . . What are we waiting for?
Gimli in Lord of the Rings - Return of the King
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I would hope Wichita State gets in before UD. If they don't there is something seriously wrong with the system. I could also see SMU before UD as well. I would be shocked if Toledo got in before UD. Especially with there 21 point loss to Eastern Michigan yesterday and 0 wins against top 100.
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02-16-2014, 10:10 PM
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What is the discussion on Wichita State getting in? The only question is whether they will be a #1 seed.
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02-16-2014, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72
What is the discussion on Wichita State getting in? The only question is whether they will be a #1 seed.
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The question is whether someone will be a 'bid stealer'. To steal a bid, someone who wasn't going to be an at-large will have to win a conference tournament, and then someone else gets an at large who we were expecting would have won the conference tournament. The top teams in one-bid conferences are often assumed to be the tournament winners. If they aren't and they are at-large caliber, then there's one less at-large available. It could theoretically happen in big conferences, too, but (a) it's harder in a strong conference because an upstart has to run through multiple NCAA-caliber teams to do it and (b) they probably knocked at least one team off the bubble in order to do it so it's no net change with regard to the bubble. The list above is useful to see where bids might be stolen.
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02-16-2014, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
I would hope Wichita State gets in before UD. If they don't there is something seriously wrong with the system. I could also see SMU before UD as well. I would be shocked if Toledo got in before UD. Especially with there 21 point loss to Eastern Michigan yesterday and 0 wins against top 100.
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Of course Wichita State will be in the tournament - it is a 'stolen bid' only if another team wins the MVC Tournament.
SMU plays in the AAC - I did not consider the top ten RPI conferences in this analysis.
Saturday's games were not included in the RealTime RPI rankings I referred to, but Toledo's loss at Eastern Michigan (RPI 78) would not be considered a bad loss.
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02-17-2014, 03:09 AM
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A bid has to be earned before it can be stolen!
We have not earned a bid yet, and playing our way in is no easy task. Let's win one Wed.
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02-17-2014, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer
A bid has to be earned before it can be stolen!
We have not earned a bid yet, and playing our way in is no easy task. Let's win one Wed.
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That is pretty much the definition of a bubble team.
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02-17-2014, 12:11 PM
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Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology has six A-10 teams going to the Dance, with UD as one of the next four (after the first four) out.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
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02-17-2014, 12:54 PM
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AAC has an absolutely perfect split to get 5 in the dance. 5 haves. 5 have-nots. A huge gulf between them.
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02-17-2014, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71
Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology has six A-10 teams going to the Dance, with UD as one of the next four (after the first four) out.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
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Interesting. He has both St Joe and Richmond in the First Four. We need to beat both of them and knock them down a notch. It makes me sick that they are both 7-3 in the A-10. We should have beaten both of them.
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02-17-2014, 01:42 PM
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Here's ESPN's Eamonn Brennan's look at the Conferences and the "Bubble Teams" as of late last week.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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02-17-2014, 03:19 PM
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As I have watched this team throughout the year I just don't get the feel that this is an NCAA tourney team. The lack of attention to detail on defense and lack of interior play IMO will end up costing them a bid. Smart defensive teams are pretty good at slowing the Flyers offense down as well.
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02-17-2014, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass
As I have watched this team throughout the year I just don't get the feel that this is an NCAA tourney team. The lack of attention to detail on defense and lack of interior play IMO will end up costing them a bid. Smart defensive teams are pretty good at slowing the Flyers offense down as well.
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This team has 2 personalities. I can see us being a NCAA team and actually making the Sweet 16 if we play like we did in Maui, we can beat anyone. On the other hand, we could just as easily lose in the first round of the CBI if we play like we did versus USC.
I still don't like the eye-test, objectively, we barely should be in right now if the committee uses the same criteria as they have in the past. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I hope USC does not come back to haunt us (as well as St. Joe's and Rhode Island).
BTW, I think UD's resumes is much better than many bubble teams due to our road/neutral record (major wins Cal, Gonzaga, Ole Miss, St. Bonnie's and 2 of 3 bad losses on the road); and our top 25/50/100 record. Our big issue is the 3 bad losses. But again, go compare us to BYU, Georgetown, etc., etc. and we seem to have a better resume. Put another logo on our jersey and we are in right now.
BYU 18-10, RPI 40, 5-9 road/neutral, 2-5 top 50, 4-1 51-100, 11-4 101+
UD 17-8, RPI 59, 7-4 road/neutral, 3-5 top 50, 3-0 51-100, 11-3 101+
G'Town15-10, RPI 58, 5-7 road/neutral, 3-5 top 50, 2-3 51-100, 10-2 100+
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02-17-2014, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
I hope USC does not come back to haunt us
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It already is. Our worst loss, IMO, because of the way it happened and where it happened. URI is somewhat explainable because it was a conference road game and we have since redeemed it. No excuse for losing to Southern Cal at home.
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02-17-2014, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
It already is. Our worst loss, IMO, because of the way it happened and where it happened. URI is somewhat explainable because it was a conference road game and we have since redeemed it. No excuse for losing to Southern Cal at home.
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Yes, our inability to stop the layup line USC got going to the basket in the last few minutes of the game cost us. Incredibly poor defense. Incredibly poor coaching. No effective response to a strategy that was killing us. Their coach, before he got fired several games later, must have thought he'd died and gone to heaven. They just kept going back to the well and we just kept letting them.
Why have a coach, or coaches, if they can't spot a problem and make an adjustment? Why are they on the bench?
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02-17-2014, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber
Yes, our inability to stop the layup line USC got going to the basket in the last few minutes of the game cost us. Incredibly poor defense. Incredibly poor coaching. No effective response to a strategy that was killing us. Their coach, before he got fired several games later, must have thought he'd died and gone to heaven. They just kept going back to the well and we just kept letting them.
Why have a coach, or coaches, if they can't spot a problem and make an adjustment? Why are they on the bench?
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That was last year that their coach got fired after beating UD. Andy Enfield is still the coach at USC.
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02-17-2014, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
That was last year that their coach got fired after beating UD. Andy Enfield is still the coach at USC.
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My bad.
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02-17-2014, 09:31 PM
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ugh!
Every year we sit here wondering about Selection Sunday.
Will we ever sit on Selection Sunday and know we are in?
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02-18-2014, 12:13 AM
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Yes. We were a 4 seed. Once upon a time.
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02-18-2014, 12:28 AM
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And got matched up with a hot Tulsa team that had a chip on it's shoulder.
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02-18-2014, 12:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66
Every year we sit here wondering about Selection Sunday.
Will we ever sit on Selection Sunday and know we are in?
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Well - last year there was no suspense.
Do you remember last year?
No bubble . . .
No Nit . . .
Nada.
Baby steps . . .
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Walter Sobchak - The Big Lebowski
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02-18-2014, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber
And got matched up with a hot Tulsa team that had a chip on it's shoulder.
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In Spokane, Washington. At 10 PM Eastern time. Uphill. Both ways. 12 feet of snow.
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