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  #1  
Old 02-19-2018, 06:46 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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2018 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Probabilities Through games of 2/17:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island        98.72%   1.26%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.01
Davidson             0.82%  48.93%  49.09%   0.94%   0.22%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.51
St Bonaventure       0.46%  49.78%  46.12%   2.73%   0.67%   0.22%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.54
St Louis             0.00%   0.03%   2.01%  46.30%  25.05%  15.21%   5.46%   2.57%   1.87%   1.21%   0.28%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.99
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   2.01%  22.91%  20.09%  22.49%  18.99%   8.42%   3.37%   1.17%   0.42%   0.11%   0.02%   0.00%        5.82
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.14%  13.00%  22.83%  23.50%  19.04%  10.60%   5.84%   2.70%   1.43%   0.90%   0.03%   0.00%        6.32
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.60%  10.69%  22.75%  20.34%  16.48%  12.48%   9.52%   4.04%   2.15%   0.86%   0.11%   0.00%        6.57
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   1.11%   2.55%   7.10%  14.80%  20.47%  17.45%  12.56%  11.74%   8.54%   3.48%   0.18%        8.89
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.90%   4.24%   6.47%  11.04%  14.01%  13.59%  16.90%  13.91%  12.05%   5.13%   0.78%        9.23
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.09%   0.38%   1.51%   5.29%  16.37%  24.00%  23.26%  13.15%   9.50%   5.87%   0.59%        9.71
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.30%   0.73%   1.31%   2.92%   6.51%  11.45%  17.75%  25.54%  20.15%   9.09%   4.27%       10.66
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.46%   1.41%   4.62%   6.24%   8.33%  13.00%  18.04%  22.89%  16.30%   8.67%       11.05
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.44%   1.32%   2.24%   3.84%   5.58%   8.37%  12.87%  33.27%  32.03%       12.48
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.10%   0.74%   1.84%   4.97%  12.14%  26.71%  53.48%       13.22
Still a 23.94% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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  #2  
Old 02-19-2018, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/17:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.60%  10.69%  22.75%  20.34%  16.48%  12.48%   9.52%   4.04%   2.15%   0.86%   0.11%   0.00%        6.57
I have to argue here. Richmond has swept Davidson, and is only 3 games behind them.
  • Rhode Island has 13, so that would keep them in 1st place.
  • Richmond wins out - 11-7
  • Davidson loses 3 or 4 - 11-7 or 10-8
  • Bonaventure loses out - 10-8
  • Saint Louis loses out - 8-10 (they swept Richmond)
  • St. Joes plays Richmond still, and is tied at 7-7, so, with Richmond losing out, won't tie.
  • Richmond swept VCU, so a tie there would be in Richmond's favor.

I've got Richmond at 0.14% for 2nd place.

And, unfortunately, I have Dayton at 32.41% for bottom 4. Unfortunately, 268 million possible results makes it hard to figure things to that detail. I assume that the 32.41% includes losses to either, or both of GW and LaSalle since we still have them to play.

Is it a positive, though, that I have Dayton with 2.87% chance of top 4?

Figgie
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  #3  
Old 02-20-2018, 08:29 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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Figgie,

That has to do with the fact that you are 50/50 predicting each game while I am weighting for the RPIForecast probability of each game. For example, St. Bonaventure losing at home to Duquesne only has a 10% chance of happening in my projections.
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Old 02-20-2018, 09:29 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Figgie,

That has to do with the fact that you are 50/50 predicting each game while I am weighting for the RPIForecast probability of each game. For example, St. Bonaventure losing at home to Duquesne only has a 10% chance of happening in my projections.
So what are our chances of finishing: 10-8, 9-9, 8-10, 7-11, 6-12?
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Old 02-21-2018, 07:51 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/20:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island        99.70%   0.30%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
Davidson             0.17%  49.29%  49.77%   0.65%   0.11%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.51
St Bonaventure       0.13%  50.41%  46.54%   2.36%   0.40%   0.14%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.53
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.51%  35.91%  27.86%  19.53%   7.47%   3.78%   2.84%   1.77%   0.34%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.31
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   2.28%  25.97%  21.30%  19.11%  16.39%   9.30%   3.90%   1.17%   0.43%   0.13%   0.02%   0.00%        5.74
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.17%  16.82%  20.40%  22.26%  17.95%  11.04%   6.16%   2.64%   1.54%   0.99%   0.04%   0.00%        6.28
Richmond             0.00%   0.01%   0.71%  13.80%  19.67%  18.12%  15.84%  13.60%  10.95%   4.26%   2.18%   0.81%   0.07%   0.00%        6.60
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   1.63%   3.89%  10.46%  19.76%  24.06%  18.30%  10.05%   5.24%   5.57%   1.05%   0.01%        8.23
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.44%   4.98%   6.12%  10.03%  13.81%  13.37%  16.14%  14.59%  12.56%   5.22%   0.73%        9.23
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.12%   0.45%   1.71%   4.98%  13.01%  24.90%  25.94%  13.48%   9.39%   5.57%   0.45%        9.75
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.30%   0.89%   1.47%   2.85%   6.04%  10.95%  19.38%  28.74%  17.12%   8.28%   3.97%       10.60
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.67%   3.43%   3.46%   4.52%  11.28%  19.30%  25.45%  20.03%  11.84%       11.53
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.40%   1.27%   1.80%   3.30%   5.33%   8.69%  14.56%  33.47%  31.14%       12.50
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.10%   0.82%   2.05%   5.47%  13.43%  26.25%  51.86%       13.17
Still an 11.86% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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  #6  
Old 02-21-2018, 09:16 AM
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are all the games in D.C. this year?
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Old 02-21-2018, 09:19 AM
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% chance of being one and done?
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Old 02-21-2018, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by mikeymo85 View Post
are all the games in D.C. this year?
yes. It has been that way for the last 6 years (including this year). The first year in Brooklyn, the bottom 4 teams didn't even get to play in the tournament. Now the bottom 4 play on Wednesday night.
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Old 02-22-2018, 08:51 AM
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After a wild night in the Atlantic 10, can one of you do your magic and update this?
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  #10  
Old 02-22-2018, 10:11 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/21:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island        99.92%   0.08%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.04%  57.14%  40.11%   2.72%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.45
Davidson             0.04%  42.78%  57.18%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.57
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   2.72%  52.58%  16.88%  13.42%   7.44%   4.74%   1.94%   0.26%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.94
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  29.97%  43.49%  17.53%   4.09%   2.01%   1.65%   0.92%   0.36%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.15
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   7.07%  17.69%  24.18%  17.76%  15.03%   7.06%   5.41%   3.83%   1.94%   0.02%   0.00%        6.90
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   4.61%  12.51%  15.24%  22.27%  16.18%  18.58%   7.61%   2.54%   0.43%   0.03%   0.00%        7.35
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.07%   5.51%  17.34%  18.02%  21.07%  18.10%   8.21%   5.55%   4.13%   0.00%   0.00%        7.90
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.85%   2.60%   8.85%  18.84%  21.05%  20.94%  12.39%   6.74%   7.38%   0.36%   0.00%        8.50
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.47%   1.30%   4.78%   8.61%  15.50%  35.26%  17.40%  10.21%   5.91%   0.55%       10.03
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.13%   0.84%   1.68%   3.61%   8.31%  11.60%  19.65%  33.65%  14.97%   5.27%   0.30%       10.30
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.47%   3.19%   2.97%   3.10%   6.63%  17.15%  34.44%  24.13%   7.92%       11.70
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.53%   2.07%   8.37%  17.78%  35.79%  35.45%       12.93
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   1.00%   1.59%   4.39%   8.71%  28.49%  55.78%       13.29
Still an 14.48% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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  #11  
Old 02-22-2018, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/21:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island        99.92%   0.08%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.04%  57.14%  40.11%   2.72%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.45
Davidson             0.04%  42.78%  57.18%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.57
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   2.72%  52.58%  16.88%  13.42%   7.44%   4.74%   1.94%   0.26%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.94
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  29.97%  43.49%  17.53%   4.09%   2.01%   1.65%   0.92%   0.36%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.15
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   7.07%  17.69%  24.18%  17.76%  15.03%   7.06%   5.41%   3.83%   1.94%   0.02%   0.00%        6.90
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   4.61%  12.51%  15.24%  22.27%  16.18%  18.58%   7.61%   2.54%   0.43%   0.03%   0.00%        7.35
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.07%   5.51%  17.34%  18.02%  21.07%  18.10%   8.21%   5.55%   4.13%   0.00%   0.00%        7.90
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.85%   2.60%   8.85%  18.84%  21.05%  20.94%  12.39%   6.74%   7.38%   0.36%   0.00%        8.50
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.47%   1.30%   4.78%   8.61%  15.50%  35.26%  17.40%  10.21%   5.91%   0.55%       10.03
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.13%   0.84%   1.68%   3.61%   8.31%  11.60%  19.65%  33.65%  14.97%   5.27%   0.30%       10.30
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.47%   3.19%   2.97%   3.10%   6.63%  17.15%  34.44%  24.13%   7.92%       11.70
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.53%   2.07%   8.37%  17.78%  35.79%  35.45%       12.93
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   1.00%   1.59%   4.39%   8.71%  28.49%  55.78%       13.29
Still an 14.48% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
LIBob - Do you factor all the tie breakers into this analysis?
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Old 02-22-2018, 11:02 AM
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Thank you! Sounds like ultimately we will be in that 9/8 game.
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Old 02-22-2018, 11:12 AM
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I would have thought last night's outcomes would have helped our probabilities but it looks like they are slightly worse than before yesterday's games.
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Old 02-22-2018, 01:06 PM
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Getting a 6/7 seed key for the Flyers to have even an extremely remote chance of winning A-10. Realize have not won 3 in a row this year so winning 4 in a row probably low single digit % chance.

Key is not facing Rhody. Hope springs eternal ...
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Old 02-22-2018, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I would have thought last night's outcomes would have helped our probabilities but it looks like they are slightly worse than before yesterday's games.
I was thinking the same thing, since 2 of the 3 teams just a game ahead of us lost (Richmond and SJU). Had UMass been able to hold off VCU, perhaps the numbers would look a little different (better), but we're now tied in the standings with SJU, GMason and Richmond and only own the tie breaker with Richmond. Ideally, we'd want tie breakers with teams like VCU (we split), SLU (we split), Duquesne (we split). If there was a 2 team tie with any of them, we'd have a leg up by virtue of our wins over SBU and Davidson. In 3-way tie breaks, it would help too since we own some wins over those teams. Ironically, we own the tiebreakers over teams we can't catch - SBU and Davidson and teams we don't want to catch - Fordham.

Looking at the bracket, I think the best spot for us to land and have a shot at getting to the finals would be as the 6th seed. It gives others a chance to knock off Rhody, while our path would most likely consist of Duquesne/GW/Fordham in Game 1, Davidson in Game 2, SBU in Game 3, then the final.

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Old 02-22-2018, 02:29 PM
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With our lack of bench production that has led to some mysterious losses, I think we should brace for the 8/9 seed. Best we do is 2 and 1 to finish out, still significant chance of epic failing and going 1 and 2. My guess is we see a 3-0 sweep by URI this year. It is what it is, but we can still hope for a strong and fun finish!

Go Flyers!
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Old 02-22-2018, 03:17 PM
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Yes, tiebreakers are factored into this. In matter of fact, it actually accounts for the majority of the code in the program. what really hurt the Flyers chances was the George Mason win last night. Remember win probabilities for each game are factored into the projection. Since GM only had about a 35% chance of winning before the game, their win affects things a lot more than when favorites win. Conversely, should UD pull out a win tomorrow night, it will provide a major bump to their projections, since right nw they only have a 7% chance of winning.
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  #18  
Old 02-22-2018, 03:23 PM
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Who won, not who lost

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I was thinking the same thing, since 2 of the 3 teams just a game ahead of us lost (Richmond and SJU). Had UMass been able to hold off VCU, perhaps the numbers would look a little different (better), but we're now tied in the standings with SJU, GMason and Richmond and only own the tie breaker with Richmond. Ideally, we'd want tie breakers with teams like VCU (we split), SLU (we split), Duquesne (we split). If there was a 2 team tie with any of them, we'd have a leg up by virtue of our wins over SBU and Davidson. In 3-way tie breaks, it would help too since we own some wins over those teams. Ironically, we own the tiebreakers over teams we can't catch - SBU and Davidson and teams we don't want to catch - Fordham.
"
Our statistical chances were hurt by GW and George Mason winning, not by those ahead of us losing. Had GW lost, we would have a 2 game separation from 11th place. Had Mason lost, St. Joe would be a game ahead, but Mason would be a game behind. As it stands, we are tied with both, but lose the tie breakers so we are effectively behind both.

Going forward:
1. Cheer for UD
2. GW and LaSalle both play Fordham. We are up 3 with the tie break on Fordham, so we can cheer for the Rams without much concern. Their wins are good for UD.
3. GW goes to SLU and comes to UD with Fordham visiting in between. They are playing well right now.
4. LaSalle goes to Fordham, has UD at home, and then to St. Joe. They play OK at home, but are currently win-less on the road in conference.
5. Duquesne has Davidson and SLU at home before ending at UMass. The Dukes have a very good chance to play their way into a Wednesday game in DC.
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Old 02-22-2018, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Yes, tiebreakers are factored into this. In matter of fact, it actually accounts for the majority of the code in the program. what really hurt the Flyers chances was the George Mason win last night. Remember win probabilities for each game are factored into the projection. Since GM only had about a 35% chance of winning before the game, their win affects things a lot more than when favorites win. Conversely, should UD pull out a win tomorrow night, it will provide a major bump to their projections, since right nw they only have a 7% chance of winning.
Ok now that i know how smart you are, can you run any scenarios for projected UD results? Like what happens to %s if win against LAS or a win against GW/ I am giving up on a URI win but that may be a good omen.

I know the games still have to be played but I love looking at this stuff. Plus it keeps me from arguing with ud2.
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:18 AM
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CE80, For my next trick, I'll prove that I have way too much time on my hands.

Code:

UD Results Probablity     1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
WWW              2.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  37.75%  52.77%   9.15%   0.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.72
WWL              0.68%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.77%   7.21%  30.87%  42.80%  16.76%   1.58%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.72
WLW              3.20%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.99%   8.76%  33.70%  42.03%  14.34%   0.17%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.61
WLL              1.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.06%   2.74%  17.12%  36.10%  32.61%  10.97%   0.40%   0.00%   0.00%        9.33
LWW             27.20%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.22%   4.87%  26.37%  49.59%  18.02%   0.86%   0.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.83
LWL              9.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.11%   2.28%  14.98%  35.38%  36.56%  10.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.38
LLW             42.55%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.29%   8.18%  32.76%  39.44%  17.66%   1.58%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%        8.71
LLL             14.18%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.11%   1.71%   9.48%  35.18%  50.69%   2.81%   0.02%       11.43
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
CE80, For my next trick, I'll prove that I have way too much time on my hands.

Code:

UD Results Probablity     1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
WWW              2.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  37.75%  52.77%   9.15%   0.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.72
WWL              0.68%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.77%   7.21%  30.87%  42.80%  16.76%   1.58%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.72
WLW              3.20%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.99%   8.76%  33.70%  42.03%  14.34%   0.17%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.61
WLL              1.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.06%   2.74%  17.12%  36.10%  32.61%  10.97%   0.40%   0.00%   0.00%        9.33
LWW             27.20%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.22%   4.87%  26.37%  49.59%  18.02%   0.86%   0.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.83
LWL              9.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.11%   2.28%  14.98%  35.38%  36.56%  10.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.38
LLW             42.55%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.29%   8.18%  32.76%  39.44%  17.66%   1.58%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%        8.71
LLL             14.18%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.11%   1.71%   9.48%  35.18%  50.69%   2.81%   0.02%       11.43

You are awesome. I have to give out random reps just so I can give you more.
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  #22  
Old 02-23-2018, 12:36 PM
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FIGGIE > LIBob

But he better be careful...

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Old 02-23-2018, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
FIGGIE > LIBob


No argument here on that!
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:02 PM
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He just does things differently than I do, which is interesting to see the differences.

LIBob uses RPIForecast, and Figgie uses 50/50 and all possible results. It's interesting to be able to know that if an upset occurs, what are the possibilities left.

For instance, the bottom 4 possibilities ... LIBob had 24% originally, while I had 32%. Then after the first update LIBob went down to 12%, while I dropped to 16%. (It was like 49.3% for each of us when I did the math.) The third update, LIBob went upto 14%, and I came down to 15%. It's interesting to see us converging at our percentages.

I hate to see how he has LLW as the biggest chance through RPIForecast though. Of course, looking back at our road La Salle games, we have lost 3 straight at Gola, and last win was in 2011.
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
He just does things differently than I do, which is interesting to see the differences.

LIBob uses RPIForecast, and Figgie uses 50/50 and all possible results. It's interesting to be able to know that if an upset occurs, what are the possibilities left.

For instance, the bottom 4 possibilities ... LIBob had 24% originally, while I had 32%. Then after the first update LIBob went down to 12%, while I dropped to 16%. (It was like 49.3% for each of us when I did the math.) The third update, LIBob went upto 14%, and I came down to 15%. It's interesting to see us converging at our percentages.

I hate to see how he has LLW as the biggest chance through RPIForecast though. Of course, looking back at our road La Salle games, we have lost 3 straight at Gola, and last win was in 2011.
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:13 PM
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I have no idea what any of that means, but give me 9 or 10 days and I'll give you the seedings.
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Old 02-23-2018, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I have no idea what any of that means, but give me 9 or 10 days and I'll give you the seedings.
1. Root for the Flyers
2. Root against VCU (vs Bona, vs Mason, at Fordham)
3. Root against Billikens (vs GW, at Duq, vs Bona)
4. Root against Mason except against VCU (vs Mass, @VCU, vs Rich)
5. Root against Joe's (@Rich, @RI, vs LaSal)

Those are the things that will improve UD's seeding. Possibly all the way to 4th place. That includes if UD loses to Rhode Island.
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  #28  
Old 02-23-2018, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
1. Root for the Flyers
2. Root against VCU (vs Bona, vs Mason, at Fordham)
3. Root against Billikens (vs GW, at Duq, vs Bona)
4. Root against Mason except against VCU (vs Mass, @VCU, vs Rich)
5. Root against Joe's (@Rich, @RI, vs LaSal)

Those are the things that will improve UD's seeding. Possibly all the way to 4th place. That includes if UD loses to Rhode Island.
Let me simplify this for everyone.

1. Root for UD to win 3 or 4 straight in the tournament.
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Old 02-25-2018, 01:49 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/24:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
Davidson             0.00%  50.43%  49.57%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.50
St Bonaventure       0.00%  49.57%  50.43%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.50
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  35.03%  43.40%  18.32%   3.26%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.90
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  48.21%  23.74%   8.80%   9.76%   5.52%   3.53%   0.45%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.13
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  11.93%  20.31%  31.30%   9.66%  14.80%   9.78%   2.20%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.33
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   4.83%   9.65%  26.40%  30.47%  18.32%   8.80%   1.07%   0.46%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.81
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.03%   7.70%  15.22%  14.08%  39.67%  18.36%   2.61%   0.32%   0.00%   0.00%        8.49
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.88%   4.82%  15.37%  31.97%  21.52%   9.99%   6.02%   9.43%   0.00%   0.00%        8.70
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.42%   4.14%   5.98%   8.93%  18.52%  41.81%  15.98%   4.22%   0.00%       10.51
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.11%   0.76%   5.71%   6.47%  43.19%  22.05%  14.74%   6.80%   0.17%       10.52
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.15%  11.37%   3.61%   1.30%   6.22%  24.00%  48.14%   3.22%   0.00%       10.79
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.69%   7.17%  41.34%  48.80%       13.36
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.34%   4.21%  44.42%  51.03%       13.46
Still an 15.45% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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Old 02-25-2018, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post

1. Root for UD to win 3 or 4 straight in the tournament.
Or 5.
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Old 02-25-2018, 02:31 PM
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And the CE80 version of the projections.

Code:

UD Results Probablity     1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
WW              32.56%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.82%  15.50%  43.37%  38.31%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.17
WL              11.44%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.43%  14.49%  49.21%  29.42%   4.45%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.19
LW              41.44%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.29%  43.16%  38.27%  14.22%   2.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        8.71
LL              14.56%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.09%  30.42%  64.49%   0.00%   0.00%       11.59
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  #32  
Old 02-25-2018, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
And the CE80 version of the projections.

Code:

UD Results Probablity     1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
WW              32.56%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.82%  15.50%  43.37%  38.31%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.17
WL              11.44%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.43%  14.49%  49.21%  29.42%   4.45%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.19
LW              41.44%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.29%  43.16%  38.27%  14.22%   2.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        8.71
LL              14.56%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.09%  30.42%  64.49%   0.00%   0.00%       11.59
Mega thanks!!
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Old 02-25-2018, 03:34 PM
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How many times have we ended the season with GW and how many times have they ruined our chance at doing something?
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  #34  
Old 02-25-2018, 04:00 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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At this point hope for 6,7 or 10th. No Wednesday game and no possible URI until Sunday.

Would we rather play St. Bonaventure or Davidson?
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
At this point hope for 6,7 or 10th. No Wednesday game and no possible URI until Sunday.

Would we rather play St. Bonaventure or Davidson?
I vote Davidson. Bona Will be playing for their at large lives and would love nothing more than to show the committee on a neutral floor, the game at our place was truly an aberration.
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  #36  
Old 02-26-2018, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
I vote Davidson. Bona Will be playing for their at large lives and would love nothing more than to show the committee on a neutral floor, the game at our place was truly an aberration.
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And Davidson will have to win it all to get in the NCAAT

Every team will be desperate.
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Old 02-26-2018, 11:53 AM
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Holy **** is this depressing.
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  #38  
Old 02-26-2018, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
At this point hope for 6,7 or 10th. No Wednesday game and no possible URI until Sunday.

Would we rather play St. Bonaventure or Davidson?
I think we match up better against Davidson that Bona
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Old 02-26-2018, 04:07 PM
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I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.

On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.

We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
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Old 02-26-2018, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.

On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.

We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
Can i get some of whatever you are on?
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  #41  
Old 02-26-2018, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.
We have just as good of a chance if we shoot as soon as we cross half court......
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  #42  
Old 02-26-2018, 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.

On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.

We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.

We have basically zero chance of beating Rhode Island. They are everything we are not - talented and experienced. While I do think we could beat anyone else in the A-10, Rhode Island will end our season if we meet them again.

Let's be realistic, this team has only won back to back games twice. The idea of winning 4 (or 5) in a row is fantasy land.
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:34 PM
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If we can't beat RI, do we have any business being in the NCAA tournament, even if by sheer dumb luck?
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Old 02-27-2018, 06:47 AM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
If we can't beat RI, do we have any business being in the NCAA tournament, even if by sheer dumb luck?
This team doesn't have any business in the tournament due to the entire body of work this season.

Luck...maybe...
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Old 02-27-2018, 07:40 AM
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Seeding can be wherever as far as I'm concerned. It's going to take 50% luck, 50% grit, 50% hard work, 50% coaching, and the remainder of the pie chart being prayer to win the championship; it'll take a lot to get to the finish line, so the starting point is irrelevant.
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Old 02-27-2018, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
I'm going to buck the trend and say I want the 8 or 9 seed. Two reasons why: 1) If Rhody is going to lose in this tournament I think it'll be against the 8/9 winner. The Rams will be playing their first game of the tourney while Dayton would have one under its belt; 2) With the momentum coming off a QF win over URI, Dayton would have all the confidence they'd need to carry it through to a championship.

On top of all that, we'd have the benefit of just having seen them for a 2nd time recently and knowing that if we can play a full game like we did the first half in Kingston we can pull the upset. URI would have the advantage of rested legs but if Crosby can play 8 minutes without a turnover then we've got an 8-man rotation.

We know the chances of winning the auto bid are close to zip. I'd rather see how they fare in a 3-match against URI vs bowing out at the hands of VCU, Duquesne, or anyone else.
Davidson beat us as a 9 last year.

LaSalle lost by 1 in 2015 to Davidson.
St. Bona beat SLU in 2014.
UMass beat Temple in 2012.
We beat X in 2011.

He's not wrong. The 8/9 over the 1 upset has happened or ALMOST happened 5 of the last 7 years.
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Widget View Post
Seeding can be wherever as far as I'm concerned. It's going to take 50% luck, 50% grit, 50% hard work, 50% coaching, and the remainder of the pie chart being prayer to win the championship; it'll take a lot to get to the finish line, so the starting point is irrelevant.
Widget...you are already at 200%. That doesn't leave much pie chart left for "prayer to win the championship". lol.

Hopefully you were an english major and not math or accounting.
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by superfan99 View Post
Widget...you are already at 200%. That doesn't leave much pie chart left for "prayer to win the championship". lol.

Hopefully you were an english major and not math or accounting.
Yogi Berra taught his math class.
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Old 02-27-2018, 03:38 PM
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Let’s just beat LaSalle!
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Old 02-28-2018, 08:37 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/27:

Code:

TeTeam                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  82.54%  17.46%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.17
Davidson             0.00%  17.46%  82.54%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.83
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  38.09%  27.22%  19.11%  15.59%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.12
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  34.09%  20.64%  32.35%  12.92%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.24
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  17.51%  41.41%  18.54%  11.96%   6.95%   3.65%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.60
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  10.32%  10.73%  21.82%  26.17%  11.77%  14.05%   4.87%   0.28%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.81
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.72%  18.30%  23.52%  37.58%  12.13%   2.45%   0.31%   0.00%   0.00%        8.41
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.47%  13.01%  37.19%  16.66%  14.03%   7.13%   9.51%   0.00%   0.00%        8.86
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.47%   7.01%   8.13%  41.45%  21.00%  14.83%   6.92%   0.19%       10.49
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   8.14%  10.87%  18.83%  41.64%  16.26%   4.19%   0.00%       10.59
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.51%   5.44%   9.07%   8.69%  24.48%  47.68%   3.15%   0.00%       11.05
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.67%   7.15%  41.38%  48.80%       13.36
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.36%   4.26%  44.37%  51.01%       13.46
Still an 16.64% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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Old 02-28-2018, 08:48 AM
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Talking

Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/27:

Code:

TeTeam                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  82.54%  17.46%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.17
Davidson             0.00%  17.46%  82.54%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.83
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  38.09%  27.22%  19.11%  15.59%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.12
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  34.09%  20.64%  32.35%  12.92%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.24
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  17.51%  41.41%  18.54%  11.96%   6.95%   3.65%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.60
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  10.32%  10.73%  21.82%  26.17%  11.77%  14.05%   4.87%   0.28%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.81
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.72%  18.30%  23.52%  37.58%  12.13%   2.45%   0.31%   0.00%   0.00%        8.41
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.47%  13.01%  37.19%  16.66%  14.03%   7.13%   9.51%   0.00%   0.00%        8.86
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.47%   7.01%   8.13%  41.45%  21.00%  14.83%   6.92%   0.19%       10.49
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   8.14%  10.87%  18.83%  41.64%  16.26%   4.19%   0.00%       10.59
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.51%   5.44%   9.07%   8.69%  24.48%  47.68%   3.15%   0.00%       11.05
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.67%   7.15%  41.38%  48.80%       13.36
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.36%   4.26%  44.37%  51.01%       13.46
Still an 16.64% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
Now, I added all those percentages up, and I came up with 1400%. Yet only my chops are getting busted for math issues....
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  #52  
Old 02-28-2018, 11:16 AM
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Yes, there is a 100% probability that 14 schools will each occupy one of the fourteen seed lines. You do the math, as they say.
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  #53  
Old 02-28-2018, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/27:

Code:

TeTeam                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  82.54%  17.46%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.17
Davidson             0.00%  17.46%  82.54%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.83
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  38.09%  27.22%  19.11%  15.59%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.12
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  34.09%  20.64%  32.35%  12.92%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.24
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  17.51%  41.41%  18.54%  11.96%   6.95%   3.65%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.60
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  10.32%  10.73%  21.82%  26.17%  11.77%  14.05%   4.87%   0.28%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.81
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.72%  18.30%  23.52%  37.58%  12.13%   2.45%   0.31%   0.00%   0.00%        8.41
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.47%  13.01%  37.19%  16.66%  14.03%   7.13%   9.51%   0.00%   0.00%        8.86
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.47%   7.01%   8.13%  41.45%  21.00%  14.83%   6.92%   0.19%       10.49
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   8.14%  10.87%  18.83%  41.64%  16.26%   4.19%   0.00%       10.59
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.51%   5.44%   9.07%   8.69%  24.48%  47.68%   3.15%   0.00%       11.05
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.67%   7.15%  41.38%  48.80%       13.36
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.36%   4.26%  44.37%  51.01%       13.46
Still an 16.64% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
I am guessing the perfect storm that allows us to lose the next 2 and not play Wednesday is Richmond losing 2 and Duquesne losing 1 or 2.
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  #54  
Old 02-28-2018, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I am guessing the perfect storm that allows us to lose the next 2 and not play Wednesday is Richmond losing 2 and Duquesne losing 1 or 2.
This is what I've got for missing Wednesday after UD losing 2.

Code:

 1    80    80  50.0    GeorgeMason VCU
 2    96    64  60.0    SaintLouis Duquesne
 3    48   112  70.0    Fordham GeorgeWashington
 4     0   160 100.0    Dayton LaSalle
 5   160     0 100.0    Massachusetts Richmond
 6    80    80  50.0    RhodeIsland Davidson
 7    96    64  60.0    LaSalle SaintJoseph's
 8    80    80  50.0    VCU Fordham
 9   160     0 100.0    GeorgeWashington Dayton
10     0   160 100.0    Richmond GeorgeMason
11    64    96  60.0    Duquesne Massachusetts
12    80    80  50.0    St.Bonaventure SaintLouis
So, yes Richmond losing 2, and Duquesne in there, but might need help with GW and La Salle winning to help Rich/Duq be below us. Since our last 2 losses would be GW/LaSal, that could be 0-1 or 0-2 added to our multi-team tie break, and could hurt us.

UD would be 1-0 vs Rich, 1-1 vs Duq, 0-1 vs GW and 0-1 vs LAS (2-3)
Rich would be 0-1 vs Day, 1-0 vs Duq, 1-1 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (3-2)
Duq would be 1-1 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 2-0 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (4-2)
GW would be 1-0 vs Day, 1-1 vs Rich, 0-2 vs Duq and 1-0 vs LAS (3-3)
Las would be 1-0 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 0-1 vs Duq and 0-1 vs GW (1-3)

So, 5 team tie break, UD is 4th, and play Wednesday.

But, let's take GW out of the equation by beating Fordham.

UD is now 2-2, Rich is now 2-1, Duq is now 2-2 and La Salle is 1-2. UD is in the middle 2, and get the nod with the victory over either Stb or Davidson, whoever gets the #2 seed.

Or, we let La Salle be Joes, and GW is in the 4 team split.

UD is 2-2, Rich is 2-2, Duq is 3-2, GW is 2-3. UD tied with Rich, and the head-to-head tiebreak goes to Dayton.

Or, La Salle and GW both win out, and it's 3 team between UD, Rich and Duq. UD is 2-1, Rich is 1-1 and Duq is 1-2. Dayton stays out.

So, it seems it's the 5-way tiebreak that will cause UD to play Wednesday.

Please feel free to double check me here.

(We can still be playing Wednesday if we win 1 of 2. We'd need help, but it can happen.)

Last edited by Figgie123; 02-28-2018 at 12:28 PM..
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  #55  
Old 02-28-2018, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
This is what I've got for missing Wednesday after UD losing 2.

Code:

 1    80    80  50.0    GeorgeMason VCU
 2    96    64  60.0    SaintLouis Duquesne
 3    48   112  70.0    Fordham GeorgeWashington
 4     0   160 100.0    Dayton LaSalle
 5   160     0 100.0    Massachusetts Richmond
 6    80    80  50.0    RhodeIsland Davidson
 7    96    64  60.0    LaSalle SaintJoseph's
 8    80    80  50.0    VCU Fordham
 9   160     0 100.0    GeorgeWashington Dayton
10     0   160 100.0    Richmond GeorgeMason
11    64    96  60.0    Duquesne Massachusetts
12    80    80  50.0    St.Bonaventure SaintLouis
So, yes Richmond losing 2, and Duquesne in there, but might need help with GW and La Salle winning to help Rich/Duq be below us. Since our last 2 losses would be GW/LaSal, that could be 0-1 or 0-2 added to our multi-team tie break, and could hurt us.

UD would be 1-0 vs Rich, 1-1 vs Duq, 0-1 vs GW and 0-1 vs LAS (2-3)
Rich would be 0-1 vs Day, 1-0 vs Duq, 1-1 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (3-2)
Duq would be 1-1 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 2-0 vs GW and 1-0 vs LAS (4-2)
GW would be 1-0 vs Day, 1-1 vs Rich, 0-2 vs Duq and 1-0 vs LAS (3-3)
Las would be 1-0 vs Day, 0-1 vs Rich, 0-1 vs Duq and 0-1 vs GW (1-3)

So, 5 team tie break, UD is 4th, and play Wednesday.

But, let's take GW out of the equation by beating Fordham.

UD is now 2-2, Rich is now 2-1, Duq is now 2-2 and La Salle is 1-2. UD is in the middle 2, and get the nod with the victory over either Stb or Davidson, whoever gets the #2 seed.

Or, we let La Salle be Joes, and GW is in the 4 team split.

UD is 2-2, Rich is 2-2, Duq is 3-2, GW is 2-3. UD tied with Rich, and the head-to-head tiebreak goes to Dayton.

Or, La Salle and GW both win out, and it's 3 team between UD, Rich and Duq. UD is 2-1, Rich is 1-1 and Duq is 1-2. Dayton stays out.

So, it seems it's the 5-way tiebreak that will cause UD to play Wednesday.

Please feel free to double check me here.

(We can still be playing Wednesday if we win 1 of 2. We'd need help, but it can happen.)
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  #56  
Old 03-01-2018, 09:00 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/28:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  80.63%  19.37%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.19
Davidson             0.00%  19.37%  80.63%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.81
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  65.50%  23.82%   0.00%  10.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.56
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  19.17%  44.28%  36.55%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.17
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  15.33%  31.90%  26.44%  26.32%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.64
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  26.32%  14.72%  53.69%   5.27%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.38
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  10.69%  43.00%  25.11%  21.21%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.57
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.27%  21.21%  13.65%  25.33%   8.58%  25.96%   0.00%   0.00%        9.89
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  29.96%  51.39%  18.66%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.89
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  16.10%   9.86%  51.65%  22.40%   0.00%   0.00%       10.80
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  13.82%  13.42%  21.12%  51.65%   0.00%   0.00%       11.11
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  55.69%  44.32%       13.44
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  44.32%  55.69%       13.56
Still an 34.54% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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Old 03-01-2018, 09:12 AM
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So, I win on Saturday and then… I guess just hope the teams behind us, One of which is the team we are playing, lose? That’s basically it? Hoping for the 10th spot.
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Old 03-02-2018, 02:41 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 3/1 (Small update due to changes in RPIForecast game projections):

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  80.55%  19.46%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.19
Davidson             0.00%  19.46%  80.55%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.81
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  65.00%  24.40%   0.00%  10.61%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.56
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  19.64%  43.91%  36.45%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.17
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  15.37%  31.69%  26.62%  26.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.64
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  26.33%  14.26%  54.73%   4.68%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.38
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  10.61%  44.12%  24.99%  20.28%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.55
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  31.94%  49.52%  18.54%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.87
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   4.68%  20.28%  13.05%  25.07%   8.84%  28.08%   0.00%   0.00%        9.97
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  16.76%  11.32%  49.80%  22.12%   0.00%   0.00%       10.77
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  13.28%  14.10%  22.82%  49.80%   0.00%   0.00%       11.09
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  56.87%  43.13%       13.43
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  43.13%  56.87%       13.57
Up to a 36.92% chance the Flyers will be forced to play on Wednesday night.
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Old 03-02-2018, 02:56 PM
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And by UD Result:

Code:

UD Results Probablity     1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
W               72.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   6.25%  28.48%  17.82%  35.33%  12.12%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.19
L               28.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%   0.00%   0.00%       12.00
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  #60  
Old 03-02-2018, 03:12 PM
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To expand slightly on LIBob, if UD loses, we can actually get 11th place too. But, really, that is no different ... we will be the "home" team against Fordham or Massachusetts. Well, maybe it is different ... if we lose, we may want Fordham.

Lose - 11th place - LAS > STJ, MAS > DUQ
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:20 PM
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Also, to end up 11th with a Win over GW, would require Las > STJ, Duq > Mas, VCU > For, and Rich > GM. Basically, a 3 way tie between Duq/Day/Las puts us in 11th place. Add VCU and/or Richmond to the tiebreak, and LAS misses out.

So root for STJ on your way to the Arena tomorrow.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:34 PM
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Glad I am passing on A10 this year...could be Wednesday with a quick return home...
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:19 PM
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At this point, I assume no matter what position we finish in, if we win we play RI?
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Old 03-02-2018, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
At this point, I assume no matter what position we finish in, if we win we play RI?
I will be happy if we get a chance to play URI again.
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:36 PM
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LIBob and Figgie: Will either of you be updating this as the A-10 games go final today?

Thanks in advance.
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:43 PM
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What teams are we rooting for today? What exactly is our ideal seed? Has #2 and#3 been settled for SBU and Davidson?
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:53 PM
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Bonnies get 2nd with win. Davidson gets second with Bonnies loss.
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  #68  
Old 03-03-2018, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
LIBob and Figgie: Will either of you be updating this as the A-10 games go final today?

Thanks in advance.
I'll run an update when the 2:00 games go final.
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  #69  
Old 03-03-2018, 02:23 PM
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Thank you LIBob
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:21 PM
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Through 2PM games:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  66.16%  33.84%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.34
Davidson             0.00%  33.84%  66.16%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.66
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  56.28%  28.73%   0.00%  14.99%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.74
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  28.73%  52.42%  18.85%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.90
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  14.99%  18.85%  28.73%  37.43%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.89
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  37.43%  18.85%  43.72%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.06
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  14.99%  28.73%  15.94%  40.34%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.82
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  40.34%  18.58%  12.32%   0.00%  28.76%   0.00%   0.00%        9.58
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  23.39%  76.61%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.77
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  17.69%  11.07%  71.24%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%       10.54
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  28.76%  71.24%   0.00%   0.00%       11.71
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  59.96%  40.04%       13.40
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  40.04%  59.96%       13.60
Flyers win will avoid Wednesday night.
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  #71  
Old 03-03-2018, 04:23 PM
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Assuming a Flyers win, what has to happen for Dayton to be the #10?
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:34 PM
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Richmond and Duquesne wins.
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  #73  
Old 03-03-2018, 05:08 PM
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Through 3PM game:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Rhode Island       100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
St Bonaventure       0.00%  65.93%  34.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.34
Davidson             0.00%  34.07%  65.93%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.66
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  56.96%  28.34%   0.00%  14.70%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.72
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  28.34%  52.29%  19.37%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.91
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  14.70%  19.37%  28.34%  37.59%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.89
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  37.59%  19.37%  43.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.05
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  14.70%  28.34%   0.00%  56.96%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.99
Dayton               0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  56.96%  25.37%  17.67%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        8.61
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  17.67%  82.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.82
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%       11.00
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%   0.00%   0.00%       12.00
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  59.39%  40.61%       13.41
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  40.61%  59.39%       13.59
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  #74  
Old 03-03-2018, 05:19 PM
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If we win one game in the A10 Tourney this year it will be one more than last year. When we were the #1 seed and lost to Davidson and had to play Wichita State in a horrible draw as a result.
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:22 PM
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8/9 means we likely play URI and EITHER Davidson or St. Bonaventure. #10 possibly means SBU AND DAVIDSON AND RHODE ISLAND

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Old 03-03-2018, 05:49 PM
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Richmond loses to Mason, UD = 8 and we play Richmond on Thursday.
Richmond beats Mason, UD = 9 and we play VCU on Thursday.

And as BRob2Perryman3 states, we then play Rhode Island on Friday if we win.
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:50 PM
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Code:

       1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  11  12  13  14
HHH : RIs Dav SBo GMa SLo SJo VCU Day Ric Duq GWa LSa Mas For
HHA : RIs SBo Dav GMa SJo VCU SLo Day Ric Duq GWa LSa Mas For
HAH : RIs Dav SBo GMa SLo SJo VCU Day Ric Duq GWa LSa For Mas
HAA : RIs SBo Dav GMa SJo VCU SLo Day Ric Duq GWa LSa For Mas
AHH : RIs Dav SBo SLo SJo Ric GMa VCU Day Duq GWa LSa Mas For
AHA : RIs SBo Dav SJo GMa SLo Ric VCU Day Duq GWa LSa Mas For
AAH : RIs Dav SBo SLo SJo Ric GMa VCU Day Duq GWa LSa For Mas
AAA : RIs SBo Dav SJo GMa SLo Ric VCU Day Duq GWa LSa For Mas
The first 3 columns are the winners of the 3 remaining games today:
Game 1: Richmond @ George Mason
Game 2: Duquesne @ Massachusetts
Game 3: Bonnies @ Saint Louis

Last edited by Figgie123; 03-03-2018 at 06:39 PM..
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  #78  
Old 03-03-2018, 06:33 PM
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Are we locked into the 8/9 game?
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Old 03-03-2018, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Are we locked into the 8/9 game?
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Yes we are. Playing either VCU or Richmond.
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  #80  
Old 03-03-2018, 06:58 PM
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Wow. Go Mason. Tillman is a pain in the ass.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Wow. Go Mason. Tillman is a pain in the ass.
Wtf. Richmond up 45-32 on GM. The A10 is so friggin unpredictable this year.
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Old 03-05-2018, 08:50 AM
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Did anyone else see this:

Flyers 1-8 against our side of the bracket.
7-2 against the other side.

I am calling it now. We beat VCU on Thursday then knock off URI on Friday and f'n St Joes beats us on Saturday.
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  #83  
Old 03-05-2018, 04:39 PM
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CoffeeCan CoffeeCan is offline
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Unless the tournament gets moved to UD Arena, we are just toast. Cannot win outside of our own building this year.
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Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (03-05-2018)
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