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  #1  
Old 03-01-2014, 04:52 PM
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4 Seed Not Impossible

Improbable? Yes, most likely not going to happen but it is far from impossible. The good news, with Richmond losing today as long as we take care of business against them at home next week we are locked in for the 6th seed. So barring any sort of letdown, the Flyers will more than likely finish 6th in the conference.

However, owning the tie-breakers against UMass and GW is really big. Here's what we are looking at for the 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds right now:

4. UMass 9-5 (remaining: @DUQ, SLU)
5. GW 8-5 (remaining: GM, SJU, @FORD)
6. UD 8-6 (remaining: @SLU, Rich)
6. Rich 8-6 (VCU, @UD)

Richmond is out of the picture even if they beat VCU (very unlikely) as long as we beat them. So since a win at SLU isn't likely, say the Flyers finish 9-7, if UMass losses out and GW finishes 1-2, The Flyers will finish 4th in the A10. This is the least likely scenerio, but it's not far fetched, DUQ has shown they cant beat anyone if they play well and could pull off the upset against UMass. Same with GM, they have played all the top teams in the league well and could sneak up on GW.

It is hard to imagine but a 9-7 finish could very well give us the 4 seed. Even if it doesn't work out that way, a 5th place finish is much more likely and not far out of reach, which would be fantastic. We need to get the easiest first two games as possible in Brooklyn since a 9-7 finish is going to take at least 2 to get us in the dance. The win today was HUGE, one game at a time, LET'S FINISH STRONG! GO FLYERS!

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Old 03-01-2014, 05:21 PM
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Obviously the 4 seed would be best because it would mean playing 1 less game to win it all. Aside from that, I don't know who I would pick playing. I assume Fordham will lose The 12/13 game. After Duquesne beating SLU, all bets are off as to how things in Brooklyn will play out. Should be fun.
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Old 03-01-2014, 11:32 PM
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UD cannot finish worse than our preseason pick of 7th. Nowhere to go but up!
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:14 AM
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With all the bubble teams continuing to win, the A10 tournament is becoming more and more important. Unless we can somehow pull off the upset at SLU and finish 10-6, I think that 2 wins in Brooklyn is going to be the absolute minimum and that might only barely get us in, depending on some of the other teams. We need all the help we can get, I want that 5th seed.
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:40 AM
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I'd almost rather have the 5th seed, b/c then we could get 2 wins for the resume before getting to the conference semis. Of course, that would mean actually winning both of those games.

But IMHO, if the team that I saw today shows-up in Brooklyn, I think they have a good chance of making it at least to the semis if not the championship game. And that should be good enough for an invite, assuming we finish the regular season at no worse than 9-7 in-con.
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:30 AM
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Exclamation Predictions don't count

Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
UD cannot finish worse than our preseason pick of 7th. Nowhere to go but up!
"Predictions" are not actual league positions, so yes we can fall from current sixth to 7th. Last time I checked, going from 6th to 7th is equivalent to going down, not up. Obviously, I know what you mean, but "pre-season predictions" don't count as an official way to measure the program. Amazing to me the number of folks on this board that refer back to the 7th place prediction as if has some kind of official standing. No matter where UD ends-up, I wasn't encouraged with a pre-season 7th place finish; and, even if we should make the NCAA Tourney, I don't believe 6th or 7th is where the program should be. Therefore, I cannot use a pre-season prediction to be happy about mediocre performance. I am no more satisfied finishing 7th when picked 7th, than I was when we finished 7/8th when predicted #1. Otherwise, if UD is predicted tenth or dead-last in league, a fan ought to be thrilled to finish dead-last; or tenth for that matter.

Agreed, the Atlantic 10 is a strong conference, and although realizing you are looking at the bright side of the equation, but I find the constant reference to the 7th place pre-season prediction, to be akin to low expectations.

No offense, but some of you carry that pre-season 7th place prediction around like it's a badge of honor, or at the very least, like a doctor's note saying you can stay home sick from school today; or, maybe it is more like the "get out of jail free card".

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  #7  
Old 03-02-2014, 10:48 AM
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Probabilities based on 50/50 outcomes of remaining 13 games. (GM@GW today) Current standings, with head-to-head records, then 13 columns of probabilities for positional finish.

Code:

 1. Saint Louis            12- 2 : 0-0  92.19   6.25   1.56                                                                       
 2. Saint Joseph's         11- 3 : 0-0   6.25  82.81   8.98   1.56   0.39                                                         
 3. VCU                    10- 4 : 0-0   1.56   6.25  58.20  23.44   7.42   3.12                                                  
 4. Massachusetts           9- 5 : 0-0          1.17  24.22  30.08  23.83  14.45   6.25                                           
 5. George Washington       8- 5 : 0-0          3.52   3.91  12.11  24.61  38.28  17.58                                           
 6. Richmond                8- 6 : 1-0                 3.12  14.84  19.14  21.48  41.41                                           
 7. Dayton                  8- 6 : 0-1                       17.97  24.61  22.66  34.77                                           
 8. La Salle                6- 8 : 0-0                                                   84.38   9.38   6.25                      
 9. St. Bonaventure         6- 9 : 0-0                                                   15.62  84.38                             
10. Duquesne                4-10 : 0-0                                                                 53.12  26.56  20.31        
11. Rhode Island            4-11 : 0-0                                                                  9.38  50.00  26.56  14.06 
12. George Mason            3-10 : 0-0                                                           6.25  29.69  12.50  34.38  17.19 
13. Fordham                 2-12 : 0-0                                                                  1.56  10.94  18.75  68.75 
For UD's 4th place prediction:
(legend: game number remaining, possibilities with away winning, possibilities with home winning, percentage of higher team, away team, home team)
Code:

 1   864   608  58.7    GeorgeMason GeorgeWashington
 2   736   736  50.0    Fordham RhodeIsland
 3   384  1088  73.9    Massachusetts Duquesne
 4  1216   256  82.6    Dayton SaintLouis
 5   864   608  58.7    SaintJoseph's GeorgeWashington
 6   736   736  50.0    GeorgeMason LaSalle
 7   800   672  54.3    VCU Richmond
 8   608   864  58.7    GeorgeWashington Fordham
 9     0  1472 100.0    Richmond Dayton
10   736   736  50.0    Duquesne GeorgeMason
11   672   800  54.3    St. Bonaventure VCU
12  1088   384  73.9    SaintLouis Massachusetts
13   736   736  50.0    LaSalle SaintJoseph's


So, Dayton MUST beat Richmond to get the #4 seed, but could still lose to Saint Louis while doing so. That requires George Washington losing 2 of 3 to Mason, Joes and Fordham and Massachusetts losing at Duquesne and versus Saint Louis.

Also, if Saint Louis loses out (vs Day, @Mas), and Joes wins out, Joes would be the #1 seed. VCU needs STL losing out, VCU winning out, and Joes not winning out.
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Old 03-02-2014, 05:56 PM
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George beat George today....well, the Washington one beat the Mason one. Our probability for 4th place went down 3 percent to 14.84%.

If we lose to Saint Louis, we need the following to get the 4 seed:
  • Duquesne beating Massachusetts in Pittsburgh
  • Saint Joseph's beating George Washington in DC
  • Fordham beating George Washington in the Bronx
  • Saint Louis beating Massachusetts in Amherst

If we beat Saint Louis, we still need to beat Richmond, and still need some combination of the above games but not nearly a 100%. Probably some of 2 or 3 out of 4, or something along those lines.

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Old 03-02-2014, 09:34 PM
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IMHO, we absolutely want the #4 seed. Beating a sub-100 team does zero for our resume and the only thing that can occur is a bad loss. Teams 10-13 teams in A-10 standings are right now all sub 145 = potential bad loss.

#5/6/7 Seeds play#10-13 = Fordham 214, Dukes 187, 149 GM, and 145 RI. If we beat any of these teams in A-10 first game, RPI is flattish to down (someone would have to run the #s) and if we lose, 4th bad loss and I think we are on bubble even if beat St. Louis and Richmond; if we spit 1-1 then lose we are done.

#4 Seed (if Dayton) plays GW or Umass = no downside and all upside with win.
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Old 03-02-2014, 10:01 PM
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I disagree. We likely need 24 wins for an at large bid. The advantage of the 5 or 6 seed is an opportunity to pick up 1 more win against lesser competition. In other words, it's the difference between making it to the semi's and the conference final to lock up a bid.
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Old 03-02-2014, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer View Post
I disagree. We likely need 24 wins for an at large bid. The advantage of the 5 or 6 seed is an opportunity to pick up 1 more win against lesser competition. In other words, it's the difference between making it to the semi's and the conference final to lock up a bid.
I respectfully disagree. We might as well as throw out our 150+ wins. They are meaningless for the committee. If you win, no advantage to your RPI (and in fact can hurt your rpi), etc. and if you lose, they are a bad loss and we cannot have 4 bad losses.

We will get zero credit from the committee for beating RI, Dukes, Fordham, or George Mason. Only negative. The committee really does not care about wins versus teams ranked 150+ anymore and arguably does not care about 101+ wins (possibly they care about 101-150 on the road/neutral), but all 4 teams are 145+ so no upside.
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Old 03-03-2014, 12:24 AM
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Six seed

I consider the six seed to be most likely (by far) - and not a bad spot to be in.

Likely scenario: lose at SLU on Senior Night, beat Richmond on Senior Night = six seed.
First up: the eleven seed - very winnable, but not helpful except that win buys a game against the three seed - who will not be St Louis.
A win over the three seed punches our ticket.

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Old 03-03-2014, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
I consider the six seed to be most likely (by far) - and not a bad spot to be in.

Likely scenario: lose at SLU on Senior Night, beat Richmond on Senior Night = six seed.
First up: the eleven seed - very winnable, but not helpful except that win buys a game against the three seed - who will not be St Louis.
A win over the three seed punches our ticket.
till rather be #4 up versus a #5 GW or UMass (or #5 versus the same). I agree with getting a shot versus a top 50 team that is not St. Louis or St. Joe's (if we are #7) would be good. Us at #6 versus VCU at #3 I don't love either. Perhaps looking back too much, but would love to see GW or Umass in 2nd round as we seem to match up well. St. Louis is a better team and St. Joe's/VCU have better + more experienced coaches.

Also agree with your scenario (which is most likely, but not guaranteed), the game versus #3 very well may be our 1st play-in game (if we lose at St. Louis, beat Richmond, beat #150+ RPI). We win versus #3 and we go to NCAA play-in game in Dayton; we lose and we go to NIT.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:41 AM
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If we can win the first round game, I would like to avoid VCU more than any other team.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:41 AM
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Correction

Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
"Predictions" are not actual league positions, so yes we can fall from current sixth to 7th. Last time I checked, going from 6th to 7th is equivalent to going down, not up.
We are currently 7th. Richmond holds the tie breaker. Nowhere to go but up!
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:50 AM
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Right, but you are talking about seeding in conference tourney, not standings. UD can fall in the standings from sixth to seventh to eighth. I understand what you are saying, and I noted that above. But, your original post dealt with "pre-season pick" as it relates to league finish; because that's what pre-season picks are. They are not pre-season picks of "seeding" for conference tourney. Additionally, your post implies it's good news that UD cannot finish lower than seventh. Which is not good news, especially, when we can still finish eighth.

So, almost nowhere to go but up, but not totally. I don't think an eighth place finish with a #7 seeding would leave any positive impressions upon the NCAA committee, or me for that matter.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by purpieschu View Post
If we can win the first round game, I would like to avoid VCU more than any other team.
I predict Joes and VCU tie at 12-4 and Joes gets the 2 seed via h to h tie breaker, leaving VCU for the 3. UMass and GW tie at 11-5 and UMass gets the 4 via h to h tiebreaker, leaving GW the 5. Flyers get the 6.

Not sure who we play in 6 v 11 game but the next game would be v VCU.
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Old 03-03-2014, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Right, but you are talking about seeding in conference tourney, not standings. UD can fall in the standings from sixth to seventh to eighth. I understand what you are saying, and I noted that above. But, your original post dealt with "pre-season pick" as it relates to league finish; because that's what pre-season picks are. They are not pre-season picks of "seeding" for conference tourney. Additionally, your post implies it's good news that UD cannot finish lower than seventh. Which is not good news, especially, when we can still finish eighth.

So, almost nowhere to go but up, but not totally. I don't think an eighth place finish with a #7 seeding would leave any positive impressions upon the NCAA committee, or me for that matter.
Did you read what you wrote before you posted? How can an "eighth place finish" occur with a "#7 seeding"? Wouldn't it have to be the other way around?

As well, we cannot get a #8 seed at this point, we are locked in at 4 thru 7. La Salle and Bonnies are locked into the 8/9 game already, so they are just here this week to attempt to spoil someone else's seeding.
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Old 03-03-2014, 11:50 AM
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Just my impression . . .

Beatty Town Coach:

". . . So, almost nowhere to go but up, but not totally. I don't think an eighth place finish with a #7 seeding . . .


That scenario is impossible.

. . .would leave any positive impressions upon the NCAA committee, or me for that matter.

Who are you, that your 'impressions' are of any consequence?

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Old 03-03-2014, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Beatty Town Coach:

". . . So, almost nowhere to go but up, but not totally. I don't think an eighth place finish with a #7 seeding . . .

That scenario is impossible.

. . .would leave any positive impressions upon the NCAA committee, or me for that matter.

Who are you, that your 'impressions' are of any consequence?
Instead of typing smarky comments, why don't you just give the man a red pip and leave the rest of us out of it?
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Old 03-03-2014, 12:41 PM
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This is not really relevant to this thread, and I don't know what the remaining a10 league schedule is for everybody else in the a10, but it is at least possible that UD could end up with the 4th best rpi in the a10, sju and gw could end up worse than UD, although I imagine that this is probably not a realistic scenario.
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Old 03-03-2014, 01:06 PM
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Yes Figgie I read it. We are tied for sixth but are currently in-line for #7 seeding, agreed. However, if you are currently in-line for a seven seed and you do end with the #7 seeding, that is not an upward departure or improvement in seed positioning. Mr.Flyerfanatic said there is no where to go but up; but if you finish seventh, that is not up...its stagnant...remains the same.

He compared to pre-season predictions, and my point is the thread is not about pre-season predictions. He also implied it was good that you can't be lower than seventh in seeding as it related to pre-season predictions. It is only good based on the here and now; but there is really nothing that great about it.

Don't worry about it rollo, they all think UD is headed to the final four and that UD Arena is a sellout every night. After-all, according to Ted Kissell, if "Saint Joes can be the #2 seed with much less, and UD can always be as great as the seven seed (or pre-season prediction) so be-it." Around here being the picked or finishing 7-13 is the same as it is for other programs to finish 1-3. I guess the big question is can UD manage a seed higher than seventh and crawl their way in-to part of the NCAA Tourney (so called first four) which isn't really a part of the actual tournament anyway.

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Old 03-03-2014, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Yes Figgie I read it. We are tied for sixth but are currently in-line for #7 seeding, agreed. However, if you are currently in-line for a seven seed and you do end with the #7 seeding, that is not an upward departure or improvement in seed positioning. Mr.Flyerfanatic said there is no where to go but up; but if you finish seventh, that is not up...its stagnant...remains the same.

He compared to pre-season predictions, and my point is the thread is not about pre-season predictions. He also implied it was good that you can't be lower than seventh in seeding as it related to pre-season predictions. It is only good based on the here and now; but there is really nothing that great about it.

Don't worry about it rollo, they all think UD is headed to the final four and that UD Arena is a sellout every night. After-all, according to Ted Kissell, if "Saint Joes can be the #2 seed with much less, and UD can always be as great as the seven seed (or pre-season prediction) so be-it." Around here being the picked or finishing 7-13 is the same as it is for other programs to finish 1-3. I guess the big question is can UD manage a seed higher than seventh and crawl their way in-to part of the NCAA Tourney (so called first four) which isn't really a part of the actual tournament anyway.
Nice job ignoring the After Archie thread Beatty.

And nobody, I mean nobody, thought the a10 would have a shot at 7 bids this year after losing Butler, Temple, X, and Charlotte. So to rap UD for 7th place is a gross mischaracterization of the situation IMO.
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Old 03-03-2014, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
I guess the big question is can UD manage a seed higher than seventh and crawl their way in-to part of the NCAA Tourney (so called first four) which isn't really a part of the actual tournament anyway.
Can I ask what you mean "isn't really a part of the actual tournament"? The participants in the First Four games get a cut of the money just like it is any other game, therefore, it's part of the tournament. Sure, it's not the old "64-team" tournament anymore, but if you get money to play in it, then it's part of the tournament. If UD were in that game, and won, it would be counted as a win in the NCAA tournament. La Salle and VCU both count their First Four victories as NCAA tournament wins.
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Old 03-03-2014, 05:56 PM
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Getting a little back on topic here, after GW's win over GM yesterday, a 1-2 finish for them does not seem likely, I don't see them losing to Fordham. Also, it's hard to see UMass dropping one @ Duquesne, you never know, but it's a long shot. Richmond seems to be reeling right now with their injuries and with VCU coming into town and HOPEFULLY us taking care of business at home will lead to them to losing their last two.

The most realistic scenerio is UD finishing in sixth at 9-7, and GW or UMass ahead of us at 10-6 or 11-5, and Richmond dropping to seventh at 8-8. Obviously this could all change, dare I say a win at SLU could really make things interesting for the Flyers, but the final standings are shaping up to look like this.

I want the 5th seed more than anything, I know it has been discussed but I would take 2 wins and a loss against an rpi top 50 over a bye and only one win then getting bounced. We need wins, even if they are against the bottom of the league, 24 wins, no matter who they are against, gets us a lock. 23 wins and we SHOULD be on the right side of the bubble. I'm putting more money on us finishing the season 1-1 and getting 2 wins in Brooklyn rather than us making a deep run to the finals. We can still do this with the 6th seed obviously, I guess it all depends on what the matchups look like. Anything but VCU.

Splitting these last 2 games, finishin 21-10 and 9-7, regardless of other bubble teams this should set us up perfectly to play our way into the tourney through Brooklyn. I'm very confident 2 wins will do it. But how about we just win on Wednesday and make this whole process a lot less stressful...
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Old 03-03-2014, 06:23 PM
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Even the 3 seed is alive...

If this analysis from the A10 board is correct:

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlan...l#post10318026

VCU, UD, UMASS, GW all finish 10-4

VCU is .500 against the group
UMASS is .667 against the group
UD is .667 against the group
GW is .000 against the group

UD gets the 3 seed. Saturday was huge. Wednesday is now bigger.

I don't see this happening, but I also didn't see us dropping 4 in a row in January.
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Old 03-03-2014, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post

Splitting these last 2 games, finishin 21-10 and 9-7, regardless of other bubble teams this should set us up perfectly to play our way into the tourney through Brooklyn. I'm very confident 2 wins will do it. But how about we just win on Wednesday and make this whole process a lot less stressful...
Yes, I agree, 23-11(lose at slu, beat richmond, go 2-1 in the a10 tourney)seems like the golden ticket to me. 23-11 gets you to rpi 41.9 rpi per rpiforecast, and I think that will be good enough.

I think 23 or better is the majic number. IMO, 23-10 or 23-12 also gets you in.

I'm going to hate to see what happens to some of the haters on here, they will probably stroke out if UD makes the dance.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Dayton.html

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Old 03-03-2014, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
If this analysis from the A10 board is correct:

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlan...l#post10318026

VCU, UD, UMASS, GW all finish 10-4

VCU is .500 against the group
UMASS is .667 against the group
UD is .667 against the group
GW is .000 against the group

UD gets the 3 seed. Saturday was huge. Wednesday is now bigger.

I don't see this happening, but I also didn't see us dropping 4 in a row in January.
I can guarantee we all won't finish 10-4.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I can guarantee we all won't finish 10-4.
Thank you Nostradamus!
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:27 PM
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I think this topic is more about the NIT seeding since we don't know if the Maui team is going to show up.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
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Old 03-04-2014, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Ohio Gaming Slots View Post
I think this topic is more about the NIT seeding since we don't know if the Maui team is going to show up.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
i believe they were talking the A10 Tourney.
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Old 03-04-2014, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Thank you Nostradamus!
Not really. I do know that there are 16 conference games.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:05 PM
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Code:

 1. Saint Louis            12- 3 : 0-0 100.00                                                                                     
 2. Saint Joseph's         11- 4 : 0-0         65.62  15.62  15.62   3.12                                                         
 3. VCU                    10- 4 : 0-0         12.50  31.25  31.25  17.19   7.81                                                  
 4. Massachusetts          10- 5 : 1-0         12.50  34.38  18.75  21.88  12.50                                                  
 5. George Washington      10- 5 : 0-1          9.38  15.62  21.88  28.12  25.00                                                  
 6. Dayton                  9- 6 : 0-0                 3.12   9.38  21.88  15.62  50.00                                           
 7. Richmond                8- 6 : 0-0                        3.12   7.81  39.06  50.00                                           
 8. La Salle                6- 8 : 0-0                                                   60.94  39.06                             
 9. St. Bonaventure         6- 9 : 0-0                                                   39.06  60.94                             
10. Rhode Island            5-11 : 0-0                                                                 50.00  50.00               
11. Duquesne                4-11 : 0-0                                                                 50.00         50.00        
12. George Mason            3-11 : 0-0                                                                        50.00  37.50  12.50 
13. Fordham                 2-13 : 0-0                                                                               12.50  87.50 
For third place:
  • Richmond wins at home against VCU tonight
  • Fordham wins at home against George Washington
  • Dayton wins at home against Richmond
  • Bonnies wins on road at VCU
  • Saint Louis wins on road at Massachusetts

For fourth place:
  • Dayton beats Richmond
  • Fordham beats George Washington
  • Saint Louis beats Massachusetts
  • VCU wins at least one game (@Richmond, vsBonnies)

For fifth place:
  • Dayton beats Richmond
  • VCU wins at least one game (@Richmond, vsBonnies)
  • Exactly one of these happens
    • Fordham beats George Washington
    • Saint Louis beats Massachusetts

For sixth place: ... everything else. Basically, either VCU wins at least 1, with GW and Mass winning, or GW wins, VCU loses 2, and STL beats Mass.

For seventh place:
  • Dayton loses to Richmond
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:19 PM
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It appears that the 5 seed is the most likely scenario. I think this works out very well because it should provide us an additional win by playing Fordham/George Mason, as well as then playing the #4 seed.
I don't think anyone at this point could argue that if UD wins their next two games, regardless of the opponent in the 2nd game, that we will be a lock for the NCAA Tourney.
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post

For third place:
  • Richmond wins at home against VCU tonight
  • Fordham wins at home against George Washington
  • Dayton wins at home against Richmond
  • Bonnies wins on road at VCU
  • Saint Louis wins on road at Massachusetts

For fourth place:
  • Dayton beats Richmond
  • Fordham beats George Washington
  • Saint Louis beats Massachusetts
  • VCU wins at least one game (@Richmond, vsBonnies)
Since I have clearly stated that there is no reason whatsoever that our Flyers should ever finish outside the A10's Top 4, especially this season with so much returning talent and experience, I do hereby declare that if either of the scenarios Figgie so clearly identified above come to fruition, I will eat crow 24/7 for the remainder of Lent...including Fridays!
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Old 03-06-2014, 12:45 PM
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Would love the 4 seed, but happy with 5 seed too. It appears the 4 seed will be GW (I am banking on SLU beating UMass), which I am ok with. Of all the teams I want to see on the other side of the bracket, I'd want VCU over there.

I am ok with a bye, vs GW, vs SLU path to the final. Or a vs GM, vs GW, vs SLU path as well.
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Old 03-06-2014, 01:06 PM
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I think it is the 6. I just don't think we can count on Bona 2 years in a row and SLU is hurting. UMass pressed Duq a good part of the game last night. I see them doing the same against SLU. I know SLU needs the win for NCAA seeding but they already won the conference regular season title. UMass is fighting for a Brooklyn bye. I hope I am wrong because we are heading toward VCU on the quarters.
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Old 03-06-2014, 01:22 PM
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For fifth place:
Dayton beats Richmond
VCU wins at least one game (@Richmond, vsBonnies)
Exactly one of these happens
Fordham beats George Washington
Saint Louis beats Massachusetts

Figgie - Why does it have to be just one of those happening? Wouldn't it would be the same if both UMass and GW lose since we would have the group tie breaker?
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Old 03-06-2014, 01:28 PM
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The point Figgie was making was to show that we only need one to happen an easier path. Makes no difference if both happen.
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:06 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
For fifth place:
Dayton beats Richmond
VCU wins at least one game (@Richmond, vsBonnies)
Exactly one of these happens
Fordham beats George Washington
Saint Louis beats Massachusetts

Figgie - Why does it have to be just one of those happening? Wouldn't it would be the same if both UMass and GW lose since we would have the group tie breaker?
If they both happen, we end up in 4th place, not 5th place.
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
If they both happen, we end up in 4th place, not 5th place.
Forgive me. I should know better than to question the master.
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:39 PM
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23 wins gets us in. I would prefer the 5-seed - I know it has a slight risk into it, but I can't see us losing to the 12/13 winner. It gives us another win under the belt against an easier opponent. I don't care about the bye - we could easily lose that first game with a bye.
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
If they both happen, we end up in 4th place, not 5th place.
I hope they finish 5th for a very selfish reason. I just got my ticket to fly from Florida up to NYC for Thursday's game
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by kiefaber455 View Post
I hope they finish 5th for a very selfish reason. I just got my ticket to fly from Florida up to NYC for Thursday's game
Regardless you will get to see some GREAT bball if you are attending the entire tourney.
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:47 PM
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:52 PM
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Old 03-06-2014, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by dnutz77 View Post
Regardless you will get to see some GREAT bball if you are attending the entire tourney.
I was with a group of about 15 guys last year in Brooklyn. We had a lot of fun and saw some good games. It will be even more fun this year when those games involve the Flyers more often.
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:01 AM
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Since VCU won, our chance at the #3 is out the window.

To get the #4, aside from the obvious of winning our game, we basically need Fordham to beat GW (HA!) and SLU to beat UMass. If that doesn't happen, we are playing a first round game.
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Old 03-07-2014, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Since VCU won, our chance at the #3 is out the window.

To get the #4, aside from the obvious of winning our game, we basically need Fordham to beat GW (HA!) and SLU to beat UMass. If that doesn't happen, we are playing a first round game.
It is and/or not just and.
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
It is and/or not just and.
No, it's AND. For 4th place, Fordham needs to beat George Washington AND Saint Louis has to beat Massachusetts.

Besides what I've posted above, the Math is easy now. 3rd place has 4 losses, with 1 to go, so we can't get there since we have 6 losses. 4th and 5th place teams each have 5 losses, so for us to tie those positions, we need them BOTH to lose.

Ergo, Beat Richmond, hope for GW and Mass to lose, then we get 4th.

Though, it is interesting. My possibility web page shows that to get to 5th place, all that needs to happen is UD winning. Of course, that isn't the full story. GW and Mass games come into play. If both GW and Mass lose, we are 4th, if they both win, we are 6th, otherwise, we are 5th.
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
No, it's AND. For 4th place, Fordham needs to beat George Washington AND Saint Louis has to beat Massachusetts.

Besides what I've posted above, the Math is easy now. 3rd place has 4 losses, with 1 to go, so we can't get there since we have 6 losses. 4th and 5th place teams each have 5 losses, so for us to tie those positions, we need them BOTH to lose.

Ergo, Beat Richmond, hope for GW and Mass to lose, then we get 4th.

Though, it is interesting. My possibility web page shows that to get to 5th place, all that needs to happen is UD winning. Of course, that isn't the full story. GW and Mass games come into play. If both GW and Mass lose, we are 4th, if they both win, we are 6th, otherwise, we are 5th.
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Old 03-07-2014, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
No, it's AND. For 4th place, Fordham needs to beat George Washington AND Saint Louis has to beat Massachusetts.

Besides what I've posted above, the Math is easy now. 3rd place has 4 losses, with 1 to go, so we can't get there since we have 6 losses. 4th and 5th place teams each have 5 losses, so for us to tie those positions, we need them BOTH to lose.

Ergo, Beat Richmond, hope for GW and Mass to lose, then we get 4th.

Though, it is interesting. My possibility web page shows that to get to 5th place, all that needs to happen is UD winning. Of course, that isn't the full story. GW and Mass games come into play. If both GW and Mass lose, we are 4th, if they both win, we are 6th, otherwise, we are 5th.

This is the 9th time I've read Figgie's 8th post about how we will probably finish 6th with some hope for 4th and for the 1st time I now understand his 5th post which I appreciate because his 7th post forced me take a 3rd advil for the 2nd time this week. I can't wait to get home and have my 1st beer....and relax...at last!
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Old 03-07-2014, 11:02 AM
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The Fordham/GW game is a 4:30 start. We'll know where we stand before our game starts.
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Old 03-07-2014, 12:29 PM
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:16 PM
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Old 03-07-2014, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I appreciate because his 7th post forced me take a 3rd advil for the 2nd time this week. I can't wait to get home and have my 1st beer....and relax...at last!
More like Norco Tab and a beer.
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Old 03-07-2014, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerFanatic21 View Post
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Wow, I thought I was taking some kind of eye test when I looked at that, or I was back in the 60's and at a Ghetto party. Just beat Richmond.
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Old 03-08-2014, 06:49 PM
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4 seed no longer possible as GW escapes Fordham 70-67. 5 seed still very possible if SLU beats UMass tomorrow coupled with a UD win tonight.
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