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Old 12-12-2015, 10:42 PM
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Relax, 7-2 Still Solid for NCAA 7-10 Seed

I am annoyed like everyone else, but let's relax and calm down.

7-2 is where most people thought Dayton would be at this point in the season, only difference is losing @Vandy and winning versus Chattanooga. Xavier and Chattanooga are not bad losses with Xavier expected to be top 25 RPI and Chattanooga top 100.

Still about #12 in RPI and #40 kenpom (probably projected to be 20 RPI at 23-7 or 25 RPI at 22-8 for the season. Dayton would be solid 7/8/9/10 seed right now if NCAA tourney were picked tomorrow.

Defense is ranked #30 in the nation with only weaknesses being 3 point defending where Dayton ranks #315/351 teams and creating turnovers where Dayton ranks #201. This is part of the defensive design playing the pack-line defense where weak-side help is mandated, but part just not closing out the shooters. 2015 Dayton was #27 in defense so I think we have played really well on the defensive end, giving up 61 versus Chattanooga is fine for example.

Offense is very inconsistent ranking #75. #282 in turnovers which is really bad & #283 in foul shooting ... O Rebounding at #172 and 3 point shooting at #172. A lot to work on from turnovers to 3 point shooting to foul shooting to offensive rebounding.

In Archie we trust.
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Old 12-12-2015, 10:54 PM
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Rue, would it have been better to lose on the road and won this game this week, or do it the way we did it?

I too thought we would be 7-2 or 6-3 at this point. So we give back a lot (all?) of the leeway we earned with our tough road win this week. Nate Green said it on the post game show: it's not necessarily a "bad" loss but if we want to be an elite program, we can't lose that game.

But we are still in good shape and hopefully have one more game before we get our senior back.
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Old 12-12-2015, 10:59 PM
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We need to defend the 3-ball better and shoot the 3-ball better. We were 3/13...23% compared to the Mocs' 47%.
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Old 12-12-2015, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
Rue, would it have been better to lose on the road and won this game this week, or do it the way we did it?

I too thought we would be 7-2 or 6-3 at this point. So we give back a lot (all?) of the leeway we earned with our tough road win this week. Nate Green said it on the post game show: it's not necessarily a "bad" loss but if we want to be an elite program, we can't lose that game.

But we are still in good shape and hopefully have one more game before we get our senior back.
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THirt, I rather win @Vandy and lose home Chatanooga. Last year, Dayton was punished for 1-3 top 50 and barely made the NCAA. I believe UD's lack of top 50 wins was the reason for dance card having Dayton 1st or 2nd out last year and the Committee having Dayton last in.

So Dayton's top 100 record will remain the same going 1-1, but we get a road win and a top 50 (potentially top 25) win versus @Vandy. Vandy is projected to be 15 right now in RPI. Winning a versus #15 on the road is huge. Losing to #65 Chattanooga home will be overlooked.

Dayton looks like OOC 4-1 or 3-1 top 50 with wins over @Vandy (15), Iowa neutral (22), W&M home (40), Monmouth neutral (50), and losing Xavier neutral (10). So 2, 3, or 4 top 50 wins OOC (depends on W&M + Monmouth so let's assume 1 makes it and UD is 3-1). Dayton was 1-3 all last season and now is projected to be 3-1 top 50 OOC.

Sorry for the long explanation, but I think it matters for NCAA Committee.
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Old 12-12-2015, 11:13 PM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
Rue, would it have been better to lose on the road and won this game this week, or do it the way we did it?
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RPI forecast says it's about a wash.

I was wondering who would post the relax thread.

I'm annoyed for a few reasons. One, Archie sounded resigned to losing this game. Even after Vandy, he says he doesn't want to be ranked. He had a lot of excuses in the post game.

Two, this team can't ever seen to take the next step as a program. The next step is being comfortable with being the favorite. With being the "hunted". At some point, if you want to make it a little easier for yourself in the tourney, then this is a game you have to win.

Three, did Archie forget we had timeouts at the end of the game? Because that last five seconds was awful.

No, this is not a bad loss, but I'm tired of moral victories and settling for good enough.

There, that's out of my system. Rant over, let's win the next few.
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  #6  
Old 12-12-2015, 11:21 PM
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priceg75, RPI will be about neutral. But again top 50 wins key and winning on the road at #15 projected Vandy is huge. Remember Texas got in going 3-12 versus top 50 last year with no bad losses (outside top 100) if I recollect correctly. Going 3-1 (2-1 to 4-1 range) OOC alone versus top 50 gives UD huge probability to earn NCAA bid. That is why even though neutral to RPI ranking, I like the top 25 win @Vandy and loss to top 100 RPI Chattanooga home.

All about NCAA advancement and Archie has great track record. Get into the NCAA, avoid 8/9, hopefully avoid 7/10, get 6/11, and advance. Disappointed cannot crack top 25 for national recognition.
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Old 12-12-2015, 11:38 PM
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Thanks. Sucks to lose no matter where or when, but the road win is always nice. Especially since it was our only chance at a non conference road win.
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Old 12-12-2015, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
THirt, I rather win @Vandy and lose home Chatanooga. Last year, Dayton was punished for 1-3 top 50 and barely made the NCAA. I believe UD's lack of top 50 wins was the reason for dance card having Dayton 1st or 2nd out last year and the Committee having Dayton last in.

So Dayton's top 100 record will remain the same going 1-1, but we get a road win and a top 50 (potentially top 25) win versus @Vandy. Vandy is projected to be 15 right now in RPI. Winning a versus #15 on the road is huge. Losing to #65 Chattanooga home will be overlooked.

Dayton looks like OOC 4-1 or 3-1 top 50 with wins over @Vandy (15), Iowa neutral (22), W&M home (40), Monmouth neutral (50), and losing Xavier neutral (10). So 2, 3, or 4 top 50 wins OOC (depends on W&M + Monmouth so let's assume 1 makes it and UD is 3-1). Dayton was 1-3 all last season and now is projected to be 3-1 top 50 OOC.

Sorry for the long explanation, but I think it matters for NCAA Committee.
It's a little early to project Vandy as a top 50 isn't it? I'm thinking that without their big man for awhile and the trouble they've had with other teams besides Dayton, and their future schedule, they might free fall out of it. Heck, when the seasons over we might find out that we would've been better flipping these past two games.
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Old 12-13-2015, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
It's a little early to project Vandy as a top 50 isn't it? I'm thinking that without their big man for awhile and the trouble they've had with other teams besides Dayton, and their future schedule, they might free fall out of it. Heck, when the seasons over we might find out that we would've been better flipping these past two games.
About a third through the 30 game season now, so Sagarin, Massey, and kenpom becoming statistically significant.

Sagarin predictor has Vandy going 23-8 and expected RPI #14; kenpom has them going 21-8 and ranked #17 now.

Would be around #48 even if would go 18-13, which Sagarin says there is less than a 1% chance of going 18-13 or worse.

Nothing guaranteed, but pretty confident Vandy, Iowa, and Xavier all will be top 50 at the end of the year based on statistical evidence. Vandy and Xavier less than 1% chance finishing lower than 50 and Iowa less than a 3% chance.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Vanderbilt.html

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Old 12-13-2015, 12:10 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
He had a lot of excuses in the post game.

What were the excuses? Not hearing a lot here...sounds more like a straightforward assessment of the loss:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ4HWZZYSfQ
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Old 12-13-2015, 08:28 AM
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Yeah guys relax. We will get in easy, just like last year.
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Old 12-13-2015, 09:06 AM
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Priceg75, I don't think the problem with our Flyers is whether or not they're "comfortable" with a Top 25 ranking. I think the problem is, the guys hear the talk, then get so full of themselves that they forget what got 'em there (hustle, aggressiveness, crisp passing, etc.), and it appears as if they think the other team will shart their britches when they step on the court with the mighty Flyers. And then, the predictable happens.

They remind me a little of the Navin Johnson character from The Jerk, after he gets rich from the Opti-Grab invention. Buys a fancy house, and all kinds of "feces" to fill it, and starts living the high life, and all the while losing touch with "who he is". Our guys seem to forget "who they are" once those Top 25 references start getting dangled. And then, as with last night's game, the team becomes The Jerk.

Someday, maybe they'll learn how to handle success. Until then, we might as well be the hunter, instead of the hunted.
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Old 12-13-2015, 09:51 AM
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Do we have a complacency that we will get in just like last year?

Look at the A10 records as of right now - four teams (GWU, Davidson, Fordham (yes Fordham) and Duquesne (yes Duquesne) have better OOC records than us. Yeah, I know RPI, SOS and all that. But winning builds confidence and when we had confidence we would not let ourselves be beat easily, except for the X game. Only one team, George Mason, has a losing OOC record. The rest of the teams are in the 6-3, 6-2, 5-4 category, which is not that far off. I am sure there is not a lot of happiness right now at Rhode Island or VCU. It is shaping up as a tough A10 year so that losing games at home is not helpful.

There are three home games left to iron out the wrinkles and build the team's confidence. We play Duquesne (away) and Davidson and GWU (both at home) in the first five A10 games.
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Old 12-13-2015, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
Do we have a complacency that we will get in just like last year?

Look at the A10 records as of right now - four teams (GWU, Davidson, Fordham (yes Fordham) and Duquesne (yes Duquesne) have better OOC records than us. Yeah, I know RPI, SOS and all that. But winning builds confidence and when we had confidence we would not let ourselves be beat easily, except for the X game. Only one team, George Mason, has a losing OOC record. The rest of the teams are in the 6-3, 6-2, 5-4 category, which is not that far off. I am sure there is not a lot of happiness right now at Rhode Island or VCU. It is shaping up as a tough A10 year so that losing games at home is not helpful.

There are three home games left to iron out the wrinkles and build the team's confidence. We play Duquesne (away) and Davidson and GWU (both at home) in the first five A10 games.
I don't think anyone is complacent. Ruechalgrin was pointing out that as of now our non conference schedule is a lot better than last year's, and our top-50, top-100 RPI performance is likely to be a lot better this year than last year come Selection Sunday. We are likely to have more top-50 RPI wins than we did last year, and more top-50 RPI games played than last year. As he pointed out, it hardly matters if you win the games as long as you play games against good competition. Texas was 3-12 last year against top-50 RPI teams. They lost 12 games against good teams. Twelve! And they were more comfortably in than we were last year. They won 20% of their tough games and got in.

The A10 is better this year and just about every game will be tough. We have to keep winning no matter what. But we are in a better position right now than we were after we lost to Arkansas last year (even before knowing two players would be kicked off). It's not complacency, it's math.

That said, we should not lose to UT-Chattanooga at home. Ever.
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Old 12-13-2015, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
Do we have a complacency that we will get in just like last year?.
I don't think we have a complacency issue as much as consistency and adjustment issue.

We have not shot or defended the three very well. The free throw shooting caught. You know Kendall will also be a challenge at the line, but misses Cooke's FTs are baffling to me.

Our offense is struggling with new faces and a new scheme. The new scheme is a having a true post center, who is still new very new to college basketball.

The defense is keeping scores lower, but they seem to rely too heavily on Steve to clean up defensive breakdowns.

This a good team, but it shows that it has holes and still a lot of work to do.

There is plenty of time and room to improve.
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Old 12-13-2015, 02:03 PM
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Loss adds intrigue.. think of all the games that matter a whole lot more now.
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Old 12-13-2015, 02:23 PM
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Yesterday just made me appreciate the season so far. We have to play a specific way to win. Our margin for error is very small. We don't have the outside threat to play an open flowing offense. So I don't really think we are as good as many believe. Or maybe better to say we are good IF we can enforce our style of play.
Will be real interesting to watch if/how this changes with Pierre.
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