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02-18-2019, 08:16 PM
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Thoughts
1. I am as big of a UD fan as anyone
2. It was a nice comeback
3. We still lost
4. Even if we win out and lose in the A10 tourney final, no at large bid for us
5. So it is all about seedings for A10
6. It is a down year for us, true, but also a down year for the A10
7. No reason why we cannot get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney at this point
8. Given that we have never won the A10 anywhere but at UD arena, we need it
9. But even the double bye with our lack of depth, winning three in three days not likely
10. Not looking good.
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers.
CoffeeCan
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02-18-2019, 09:29 PM
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Originally Posted by coffeecan
1. I am as big of a ud fan as anyone
2. It was a nice comeback
3. We still lost
4. Even if we win out and lose in the a10 tourney final, no at large bid for us
5. So it is all about seedings for a10
6. It is a down year for us, true, but also a down year for the a10
7. No reason why we cannot get a top 4 seed in the a10 tourney at this point
8. Given that we have never won the a10 anywhere but at ud arena, we need it
9. But even the double bye with our lack of depth, winning three in three days not likely
10. Not looking good.
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 flyers.
Coffeecan
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2019-20
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02-18-2019, 09:40 PM
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General
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we are due some luck in the conference tourney
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02-18-2019, 09:48 PM
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
1. I am as big of a UD fan as anyone
2. It was a nice comeback
3. We still lost
4. Even if we win out and lose in the A10 tourney final, no at large bid for us
5. So it is all about seedings for A10
6. It is a down year for us, true, but also a down year for the A10
7. No reason why we cannot get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney at this point
8. Given that we have never won the A10 anywhere but at UD arena, we need it
9. But even the double bye with our lack of depth, winning three in three days not likely
10. Not looking good.
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers.
CoffeeCan
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1. In 2018/19 Coach Grant has proven he can recruit at a high-level
2. In 2018/19 he’s proven he can make the tough people decisions and not afraid to turn over the roster
3. In 2018/19 he’s improved as an in game coach
4. In 2018/19 his team has not been blown out in any game and is starting to learn how to win on the road
Not immediate pay back but not a wasted year either.
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02-19-2019, 12:11 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by GoFlyer
2019-20
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What HE said.
Seriously, consider that we’re only losing 1 Senior (and he will be missed), but:
a) The rest of the team will be back (if no one transfers - and I don’t want anyone to transfer); and
b) We’re gaining 4 transfers and a highly rated freshman big.
And consider that the transfers include (1) a Big who could hold his own in the B1G, (2) a wing, originally from Ohio, who went to a B1G school, didn’t get much PT, and decided the grass was greener in Dayton (sound familiar?), (3) a PG who was a stud in a lower-major program, and (4) a stretch 4 who was highly rated coming out of HS, who also decided the grass was greener closer to home.
Not that I want to “bag” this season. But with only 7 healthy scholarship players (3 of whom are freshmen), the balance of this season is based on “hopes”, not “expectations”.
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02-19-2019, 09:14 AM
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I don't want this to come off the wrong way because I hate the NIT most years but the regular season still matters to this team. In a down year in the A10 obviously all eyes are on the conference tournament but if we don't win that, I hope we can accrue enough regular season wins to get an NIT invite. Everyone keeps throwing out this "we're ahead of schedule" quote but if we don't at least make the NIT this year, we're not ahead of schedule.
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02-19-2019, 09:26 AM
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I would argue the loss of Mottos this season cost us at least two games, possibly three. If he were around, we may be talking about the odds of us getting first place in the A10 tournament instead of a top four finish, and possibly even an at-large bid in the big dance.
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02-19-2019, 09:33 AM
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Next year is definitely the target. I've been tooting that horn for a while now. I truly believe this is a top 25 squad next year i.e. winning the A10 with a little OOC noise.
There is so much talent wearing warm ups on that bench that even if there is an unexpected personnel loss, the others will fill in. I believe Watson and Chatman can be all A10 level players. Tshimanga will be at worst a banger in the middle, good for 20 mpg, and could be a stud in this conference. Johnson is a boom-or-bust depending on his health but I'm optimistic. I don't expect a lot from Sissoko as a freshman except hope for the future. We didn't see enough of Matos to really predict his role next year.
I believe next year's roster is not set. There could be a departure out for playing time, academics, or some other issue we're not aware of. We know the staff is still recruiting 2019 players. We know we could use a big-time shooter.
But this year still has some hope. While the at large bid ship has sailed, there are still hopes for a conference tournament run. With only seven regular rotation players, I won't be betting on three wins in three days though. And that's assuming the double bye becomes reality.
I won't be happy with an NIT bid, but reality says it's highly likely at this point. I'll take it knowing that the future is so, so bright.
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02-19-2019, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
1. I am as big of a UD fan as anyone
2. It was a nice comeback
3. We still lost
4. Even if we win out and lose in the A10 tourney final, no at large bid for us
5. So it is all about seedings for A10
6. It is a down year for us, true, but also a down year for the A10
7. No reason why we cannot get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney at this point
8. Given that we have never won the A10 anywhere but at UD arena, we need it
9. But even the double bye with our lack of depth, winning three in three days not likely
10. Not looking good.
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers.
CoffeeCan
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More importantly have you been drinking?
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02-19-2019, 10:16 AM
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Major
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Originally Posted by Browns
I don't want this to come off the wrong way because I hate the NIT most years but the regular season still matters to this team. In a down year in the A10 obviously all eyes are on the conference tournament but if we don't win that, I hope we can accrue enough regular season wins to get an NIT invite. Everyone keeps throwing out this "we're ahead of schedule" quote but if we don't at least make the NIT this year, we're not ahead of schedule.
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I see the NIT as a great opportunity. The NIT is a great tournament IF that is the tournament that you deserve. In the past we have had situations where for whatever reason we were not selected to the NCAA Tournament when we should have. That was a bummer and highly disappointing.
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02-19-2019, 11:08 AM
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I would be satisfied with an NIT bid this year, but with the injury to Landers that task is getting tougher. If we don't make the NIT it will be due to injuries, and I would still say we are on or ahead of schedule. With Matos and Landers we could have made a run at the A-10 Tournament (and possibly even an at-large bid), but we obviously won't have Matos and Landers probably won't be 100%. It would take a superhuman effort to win it now.
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02-19-2019, 12:00 PM
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Just thoughts. I feel the loss of Trey cost us, at a minimum, 4 points and a loss. I posted that we needed Frankie to rebound and play some D. The very inexperienced Freshman was over his head. Next year maybe.
I'll remember that last NIT run for a long time. It was extremely entertaining to watch the enthusiasm of our players leading us to nationally televised wins over teams that won't schedule us during ooc. I would be happy with a dose of that in the post season.
I think we will be pleased with the pre-season press this fall. Including that top 144 list we didn't make this season. Many teams on that list failed to produce and don't have our record right now. I'm talking about over hyped SMU, X, URI, Butler, Florida-- whole big east (lower case) et al. who have done nothing this season.
Josh is looking on the surface like he won't be as difficult to replace as we once thought. I would still like to have him for 3 more years.
Just thoughts.
Now let's kick some Davidson bu*t tonight.
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02-19-2019, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
I would be satisfied with an NIT bid this year, but with the injury to Landers that task is getting tougher. If we don't make the NIT it will be due to injuries, and I would still say we are on or ahead of schedule. With Matos and Landers we could have made a run at the A-10 Tournament (and possibly even an at-large bid), but we obviously won't have Matos and Landers probably won't be 100%. It would take a superhuman effort to win it now.
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I still haven't seen this schedule people keep talking about. Why did the schedule have us fall behind by 22 points to VCU?
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02-19-2019, 12:16 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
I still haven't seen this schedule people keep talking about. Why did the schedule have us fall behind by 22 points to VCU?
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Everyone's "schedule" is a little different. Some are realists. Some think we should win/dominate the A10 every year and NEVER miss an NCAA Tournament...........regardless of circumstances, whether self controlled or not.
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02-19-2019, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
1. I am as big of a UD fan as anyone
2. It was a nice comeback
3. We still lost
4. Even if we win out and lose in the A10 tourney final, no at large bid for us
5. So it is all about seedings for A10
6. It is a down year for us, true, but also a down year for the A10
7. No reason why we cannot get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney at this point
8. Given that we have never won the A10 anywhere but at UD arena, we need it
9. But even the double bye with our lack of depth, winning three in three days not likely
10. Not looking good.
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers.
CoffeeCan
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There are other teams who also suffer from lack of depth ( SLU, Davidson), maybe UD draws those teams.
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02-19-2019, 01:02 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Lot of fine teams ride their best players and use the bench sparingly. The Matos excuse is BS.
Hard to find the real problem though. All world according to some. Obi the next Lebron. Cunningham an all A-10 player. JD a lock down defender. Mikesell a solid multi skill workhorse. Landed a beast that can’t shoot, gets blocked more than anyone on the team, is slow on defense, is undersized.... never mind I think I figured it out.
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02-19-2019, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
Lot of fine teams ride their best players and use the bench sparingly. The Matos excuse is BS.
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Name a team that plays 6 guys and is a fine team. Sounds like there are lots of em, so you should have no trouble creating a lengthy list.
__________________
Hot shooting hides a multitude of sins.
"Yeah....220, 221, whatever it takes." - Jack Butler (Mr. Mom)
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02-19-2019, 01:26 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
1. I am as big of a UD fan as anyone
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers.
CoffeeCan
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We are not Xavier.
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02-19-2019, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers.
CoffeeCan
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__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
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02-19-2019, 02:07 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by rollo
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and they are headlights.
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02-19-2019, 02:49 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
I still haven't seen this schedule people keep talking about. Why did the schedule have us fall behind by 22 points to VCU?
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I'll have to go back and check, but I'm pretty sure the schedule shows final results + future game times. No mention of mid-game runs or maximum deficit. Here, you can check it out for yourself.
https://daytonflyers.com/schedule.aspx?path=mbball
Here's the other schedule you'll want to check.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/b...hool/_/id/2168
I don't know what kind of a schedule VCU is on, but I'm fairly certain it likewise makes no mention of blowing 22 point second half leads against a team that only has 6 guys play real minutes, and only 1 PG on the roster. Not exactly "havoc" when your 4 guards can't wear down 1 guy who plays every minute, can only generate 14 TO's, and when you should be laying the wood against a team that's out of gas you are instead choking on your own cud.
But, you'll have to check their schedule on your own.
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02-19-2019, 03:15 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
I'll have to go back and check, but I'm pretty sure the schedule shows final results + future game times. No mention of mid-game runs or maximum deficit. Here, you can check it out for yourself.
https://daytonflyers.com/schedule.aspx?path=mbball
Here's the other schedule you'll want to check.
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Some games have a Facebook photo gallery too!
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02-19-2019, 03:24 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
I still haven't seen this schedule people keep talking about. Why did the schedule have us fall behind by 22 points to VCU?
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Seriously? It's laid out right there in the schedule!
Add the Home record of 11-3, that equals 14
14 plus our away losses of 7 equals 21
21 plus the neutral record 1-3 equals 25
25 plus the conference wins of 8 equals 33
Now, multiply 33 times our conference winning percentage of .667
And BOOM you get down by 22!
Do your homework next time!
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02-19-2019, 05:44 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
I would argue the loss of Mottos this season cost us at least two games, possibly three. If he were around, we may be talking about the odds of us getting first place in the A10 tournament instead of a top four finish, and possibly even an at-large bid in the big dance.
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Based upon the first 5 games he played, Matos was our best on ball defender. I’ll never forget the D he played against Butler, just awesome.
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02-19-2019, 07:01 PM
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Brigadier General
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Thanks everyone. This certainly helped. Just a frustrating year. Of course, next year is the play. But we could have had this year to do SOMETHING as well and nothing has happened. Injuries, close losses to non-conference teams, the conference being down all around has not helped either from a SOS standpoint or whatever measurement is used now.
And yes, I was drinking and will hopefully raise a glass in celebration over a win tonight.
CoffeeCan
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02-19-2019, 07:04 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by N2663R
Seriously? It's laid out right there in the schedule!
Add the Home record of 11-3, that equals 14
14 plus our away losses of 7 equals 21
21 plus the neutral record 1-3 equals 25
25 plus the conference wins of 8 equals 33
Now, multiply 33 times our conference winning percentage of .667
And BOOM you get down by 22!
Do your homework next time!
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Are you sure you’re not Figgie’s evil twin?
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02-19-2019, 07:11 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by maddog07
...Landed a beast that can’t shoot, gets blocked more than anyone on the team, is slow on defense, is undersized.... never mind I think I figured it out.
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Can you help me figure out who “Landed” is?
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02-19-2019, 08:14 PM
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Brigadier General
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CoffeeCan:
"Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers."
THERE! showed up, MOVED, engaged , WON!
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02-19-2019, 08:29 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by forego1
CoffeeCan:
"Someone please show me the light at the end of the tunnel for the 2018-19 Flyers."
THERE! showed up, MOVED, engaged , WON!
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Dilly dilly!
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02-19-2019, 09:52 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
Thanks everyone. This certainly helped. Just a frustrating year. Of course, next year is the play. But we could have had this year to do SOMETHING as well and nothing has happened. Injuries, close losses to non-conference teams, the conference being down all around has not helped either from a SOS standpoint or whatever measurement is used now.
And yes, I was drinking and will hopefully raise a glass in celebration over a win tonight.
CoffeeCan
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A win we historically don't usually get. Big W tonight!
Nothing is over, and this is a fun team to watch.
Tough battlers, and enjoyable!
Last edited by Flyer 86; 02-19-2019 at 09:55 PM..
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02-19-2019, 10:35 PM
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Maybe 4,000 there tonight,with a few hundred UD people, in a gym that hold 5,300. 100-200 students and about 8 band members. For a first and third place team. We are A10!
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02-19-2019, 10:56 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
What HE said.
Seriously, consider that we’re only losing 1 Senior (and he will be missed), but:
a) The rest of the team will be back (if no one transfers - and I don’t want anyone to transfer); and
b) We’re gaining 4 transfers and a highly rated freshman big.
And consider that the transfers include (1) a Big who could hold his own in the B1G, (2) a wing, originally from Ohio, who went to a B1G school, didn’t get much PT, and decided the grass was greener in Dayton (sound familiar?), (3) a PG who was a stud in a lower-major program, and (4) a stretch 4 who was highly rated coming out of HS, who also decided the grass was greener closer to home.
Not that I want to “bag” this season. But with only 7 healthy scholarship players (3 of whom are freshmen), the balance of this season is based on “hopes”, not “expectations”.
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I wouldn’t bank on all the transfers just yet. Historically, maybe 50% really contribute. With our returning players that may be all we need. Let’s “hope” our “expectations” for these four materialize.
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02-19-2019, 11:20 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
I still haven't seen this schedule people keep talking about. Why did the schedule have us fall behind by 22 points to VCU?
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I just bought a car and neither the owner’s manual nor the salesman told me how many times and where I’d need to schedule my stops for gas on my trip to DC next week. Doesn’t mean the schedule isn’t crystal clear as they gave me enough information and identifiers to let me know what that schedule needs to be. All I needed to do was to look at those realities and the schedule became very clear.
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02-20-2019, 12:15 AM
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Biggest road win of the year. That was a q1 win. The first q1 win for Grant in his career at UD.
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02-20-2019, 12:31 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by ud2
Biggest road win of the year. That was a q1 win. The first q1 win for Grant in his career at UD.
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Butler at Net 49 on a neutral court is also a Quad 1 win.
Just the facts ma'am
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02-20-2019, 12:51 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Butler at Net 49 on a neutral court is also a Quad 1 win.
Just the facts ma'am
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I thought that the quadrant system was based upon rpi? Butler rpi 59.
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02-20-2019, 01:13 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Jeff
I wouldn’t bank on all the transfers just yet. Historically, maybe 50% really contribute. With our returning players that may be all we need. Let’s “hope” our “expectations” for these four materialize.
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My expectations for the transfers aren’t astronomical. I’m not expecting Ibi to be the second coming of Jordan Sibert, but I think he could make a Sanford-esque contribution on the court. I’m not expecting either Jordy or Chase to have Dave Colbert-like production, but I won’t be surprised to see Jordy at least equal his Nebraska numbers, and if Chase can fill Mikesell’s role once Ryan’s time is done in 2020, I’ll be happy. And if Rodney can match what Josh Parker brought to the table, then the backcourt will have a very valuable addition. If those 4 can do that, and the rest of the guys show the same kind of improvement next year that they’ve shown this year, then we have a real shot to be as good as we were from 2013-17.
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02-20-2019, 01:30 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I thought that the quadrant system was based upon rpi? Butler rpi 59.
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Interesting. I guess you could be right, I'm not really sure. I was thinking it was now (this year) based on the NET rankings. But leave it to the NCAA to publicly "drop" the RPI as a critical indicator for measuring NCAA tournament teams. and introduce the not so transparent NET system..…..and then use the RPI rankings for identifying quality wins in their Quadrant System.
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02-20-2019, 08:05 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Can you help me figure out who “Landed” is?
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I believe after reading so so many of the posts by the guy you're referring to, Landed would be said poster "landed on his head" quite impactfully at some time in his life..
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02-20-2019, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I thought that the quadrant system was based upon rpi? Butler rpi 59.
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Nope. The RPI is long gone. It’s based upon the NET now.
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02-20-2019, 09:30 AM
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I'm thinking fatigue is our greatest opponent -
Obviously we have a short bench, but it could more of an issue come March when the games are one right after another and you are playing minutes like the last 2 games
Josh 30 - 26
Obi 32 - 34
Jordan 36 - 38
Ryan 36 - 34
Jalen 38 - 39
Dwayne 25 - 18
Frankie 5 - 0
(listed as VCU first then Davidson)
Average playing time Pre/Post Jhery Matos injury is probably impacting productivity overall and given that we are not getting blown out, Jhery's injury probably cost us (fill in the blank) wins. This team is getting better each day, but fatigue is our opponent. That said, Obi seems to defy my theory - he is in beast mode every game.
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02-20-2019, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Nope. The RPI is long gone. It’s based upon the NET now.
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That was my understanding. I'm not questioning your accuracy, I just couldn't find anywhere this was actually stated. If you have a link to reference, please provide. Thank you.
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02-20-2019, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
And yes, I was drinking and will hopefully raise a glass in celebration over a win tonight.
CoffeeCan
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And so I did drink in celebration.
Still, it does not change my immediate concern of us winning the A10 tourney or bust, and the lack of success we have had at that since 2003.
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02-20-2019, 11:45 AM
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I for one don’t need this team to win the auto bid to say it was a success or to look back favorably on it a month from now.
I love this team and this coach and have loved watching them play this year immensely. What’s not to love? Despite the injuries and short bench they have come to play more times this year than I remember any of AM or BG teams did - especially on the road. Has any UD team ever won 5 road games in conference? Surely not 5 of 7.
While I believe AG is a much better coach than many thought at hire time or think he is even today, I’ll continue to believe that culture and connection with your players goes way further than ability to coach the Xs and Os. To me, AG has more than proven he was the right hire and the future looks very, very bright to me.
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02-20-2019, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
And so I did drink in celebration.
Still, it does not change my immediate concern of us winning the A10 tourney or bust, and the lack of success we have had at that since 2003.
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regardless of that possible outcome, the fact remains this team was for the most part predicted to finish 5th...
they have come a long way and next year, we are fully loaded and even better.... things are looking good... great job by AG and this team...
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02-20-2019, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by steverino015
regardless of that possible outcome, the fact remains this team was for the most part predicted to finish 5th...
they have come a long way and next year, we are fully loaded and even better.... things are looking good... great job by AG and this team...
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Street & Smith's and Athlon had us 8th. Lindy's picked us 9th. Not winning the A-10 Tournament certainly would not be a disappointment based on those projections. I still say that making the NIT with the injuries and short bench would make it a very successful season. Next season the sky is the limit.
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02-20-2019, 12:41 PM
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Marysville Flyer, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a bunch of Road Warriors in Flyer unis like this group. Other than the SLU game, I cannot remember a time this season when a non-partisan atmosphere has rattled them for most/all of a game.
Top 5 Virginia on a neutral court? Nope. Sellout crowd at Rhody? Is that the best you got? Sellout, LOWD crowd at VCU? Bring it! We may have lost 2 of those 3 games, but it was not because our guys were intimidated. Out-talented (in the Virginia game), yes. Out-depthed (in the VCU game), yes. But intimidated? Aww, HE!! NAW!
Nice to see a Flyer squad band together and fight until the final buzzer, regardless of the venue. Never give up! Never surrender!
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02-20-2019, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
That was my understanding. I'm not questioning your accuracy, I just couldn't find anywhere this was actually stated. If you have a link to reference, please provide. Thank you.
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Here you go. https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...etball-ranking
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02-20-2019, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
Despite the injuries and short bench they have come to play more times this year than I remember any of AM or BG teams did - especially on the road. Has any UD team ever won 5 road games in conference? Surely not 5 of 7.
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Won 6 A10 road games in Archie's last year, also won 5 of 7. We also won 7 A10 road games in Archie's 2nd to last year, also won 5 of 7. Also, we made the NIT in Archie's 1st year.
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02-20-2019, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Won 6 A10 road games in Archie's last year, also won 5 of 7. We also won 7 A10 road games in Archie's 2nd to last year, also won 5 of 7. Also, we made the NIT in Archie's 1st year.
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I'm not following the 5 of 7 reference. Is that the non-con road games that year?
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02-20-2019, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I'm not following the 5 of 7 reference. Is that the non-con road games that year?
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A10 road games.
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02-20-2019, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by steverino015
regardless of that possible outcome, the fact remains this team was for the most part predicted to finish 5th...
they have come a long way and next year, we are fully loaded and even better.... things are looking good... great job by AG and this team...
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Great post but I am sooooooooooooo tired of waiting for next year
Having stated that, they have exceeded certainly my expectations. They are a fun team to watch and follow. Go Flyers !
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02-20-2019, 07:30 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Won 6 A10 road games in Archie's last year, also won 5 of 7. We also won 7 A10 road games in Archie's 2nd to last year, also won 5 of 7. Also, we made the NIT in Archie's 1st year.
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He's just trying to say that Archie did better than AG. Notice how he threw in the NIT reference.
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02-20-2019, 08:30 PM
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Originally Posted by UDTradition
Great post but I am sooooooooooooo tired of waiting for next year !
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Try being a Cleveland Browns fan for almost 50 years. You tend to put a few years of not being in the NCAA in perspective. Definitely trending upward (Browns too!)
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02-21-2019, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
That was my understanding. I'm not questioning your accuracy, I just couldn't find anywhere this was actually stated. If you have a link to reference, please provide. Thank you.
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Just to tie it all up in a knot here, using the NCAA NET team sheets thru the 2/19 games, Virginia is #3 NET. Dayton is listed on their team sheet at #76. Going to Dayton at #76, they show the Flyers as 2-5 in Quad 1, with Virginia at #3. That seems to pull it all together.
Quad 1: 2-5 (0 remaining)
Quad 2: 0-3 (0 remaining)
Quad 3: 4-1 (4 remaining)
Quad 4: 11-0 (1 remaining)
And just for fun, Indiana is Q1 5-9 (3 remaining), Q2 0-4 (1 remaining), Q3 2-0 (1 remaining), Q4 6-0 (0 remaining)
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02-21-2019, 12:33 PM
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Nevada hasn't played a quad 1 game all season
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02-21-2019, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
Street & Smith's and Athlon had us 8th. Lindy's picked us 9th. Not winning the A-10 Tournament certainly would not be a disappointment based on those projections. I still say that making the NIT with the injuries and short bench would make it a very successful season. Next season the sky is the limit.
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Good points. Out of curiosity, where did these publications predict the the A10 would rank overall? And where is it now?
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02-21-2019, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
Name a team that plays 6 guys and is a fine team. Sounds like there are lots of em, so you should have no trouble creating a lengthy list.
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Let’s start with Duke. Only 6 play more than 20 minutes just like us. They have two others that play 12-13 minutes. And they have lots of blowouts that could allow others to play .
Beyond this let’s look at the a10’s Davidson . 6 guys get almost all the time.
Sure a better bench would be of help but I’m tired of the continual excuses. Lost our coach, stuck in the wrong conference, can’t schedule the big boys, lost Matos, ad nauseum. But what holds us back is the starting talent, starting with guys like “The Bricklayer” , the glue guy “Trey Landed”!
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02-21-2019, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Browns
I don't want this to come off the wrong way because I hate the NIT most years but the regular season still matters to this team. In a down year in the A10 obviously all eyes are on the conference tournament but if we don't win that, I hope we can accrue enough regular season wins to get an NIT invite. Everyone keeps throwing out this "we're ahead of schedule" quote but if we don't at least make the NIT this year, we're not ahead of schedule.
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NIT has some weird selection rules where teams that win regular season conference, but lose in their tourney, receive an automatic bid. Dayton is one of the best 75 teams in the nation and should be in the NIT. Whether Dayton makes the NIT due to the unique selection rules should have zero barring on the success of the season.
Dayton is #57 in ESPN BPI and #67 in kenpom. Top 75 at the beginning of the season would be in my top 25% of outcomes. Likely scenario for me was about #100. Dayton is exceeding expectations in year 2 of the turn-around. Now just need to get lucky in the A-10 tourney for a NCAA bid. I honestly could care less about the NIT except it gives more practices games to the team.
BTW, Dayton projected as a NIT 5 seed.
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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02-21-2019, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Nevada hasn't played a quad 1 game all season
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Nevada scheduled a bunch of tough away/neutral games including some Pac-12 games that turned out to be quadrant 2 (at Utah and at Arizona St almost always Quad 1). They tried to schedule tough, but didn't have Neil Sullivan scheduling for them so they swung and miss.
At Loyola Chicago
At USC
Neutral Arizona State
At Grand Canyon
At Utah
Home BYU
Neutral Tulsa
Neutral Umass
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02-21-2019, 01:48 PM
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If I would have told you that on 2/21, our best home win would be vs Georgia Southern (NET 129), what would you have thought? That our season was a success? That the A10 is down? That Grant is excelling in his second year?
http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSDayton.htm
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02-21-2019, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
He's just trying to say that Archie did better than AG. Notice how he threw in the NIT reference.
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Archie versus AG in year 2 at Dayton.
AG kenpom 66
Archie kenpom 67
AG ESPN BPI 57
Archie ESPN BPI 71
AG wins above bubble (WAB*) = -1.2 wins for #70
Archie wins above bubble = -4.6 wins for #107
AG 4-7 kenpom A/B games (top 50/100 location adjusted) with 1-5 A & 3-2 B
Archie 2-11 kenpom A/B games with 1-6 A & 1-5 B
AG 6-6 road/neutral including 1-3 neutral & 5-3 road
Archie 4-10 road/neutral including 2-2 neutral & 2-8 road
You look at this and AG >> Archie in Year 2. Zero chance AG >> Archie in year 3 with the Elite 8 run, but good foundation for success if you are comparing years 2, AG clearly having a better year by any imaginable metric than Archie.
*Wins above bubble is basically if the average bubble team played your schedule, how many wins would they have (BTW, if Dayton won 2 more games this year would be at +.8 and squarely on the bubble).
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02-21-2019, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
Nevada scheduled a bunch of tough away/neutral games including some Pac-12 games that turned out to be quadrant 2 (at Utah and at Arizona St almost always Quad 1). They tried to schedule tough, but didn't have Neil Sullivan scheduling for them so they swung and miss.
At Loyola Chicago
At USC
Neutral Arizona State
At Grand Canyon
At Utah
Home BYU
Neutral Tulsa
Neutral Umass
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That's a nice 15-16 schedule! Haha
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02-21-2019, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
Let’s start with Duke. Only 6 play more than 20 minutes just like us. They have two others that play 12-13 minutes. And they have lots of blowouts that could allow others to play .
Beyond this let’s look at the a10’s Davidson . 6 guys get almost all the time.
Sure a better bench would be of help but I’m tired of the continual excuses. Lost our coach, stuck in the wrong conference, can’t schedule the big boys, lost Matos, ad nauseum. But what holds us back is the starting talent, starting with guys like “The Bricklayer” , the glue guy “Trey Landed”!
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A few thoughts/comments re: your post above.
1. Don't distort or discount the facts. Duke plays 8 guys in their regular rotation. The guys you reference who only play ~13 minutes/game, have played in virtually EVERY GAME. And you're comparing us to Duke - a team/program with I don't how many McDonald's AA's and THREE Top 10 NBA draft picks on the team. Either way, I think we'd LOVE to have Matos take those ~13 minutes/game. Davidson plays 7 guys in their rotation. It had been 8 until the last 4/5 games. And to be fair, Dayton is a 7-man rotation, not 6, when Trey is healthy. And you know where Davidson stands right now? About the same spot as Dayton as far as at-large chances, NET ranking and needing to win the conference tournament to get in.
2. I don't see anybody making excuses. They simply are astute enough to acknowledge the circumstances we're dealing with and remain in check with the progression and expectations of the program. It's not just a black and white analysis and evaluation. Don't get me wrong, wins and losses are important variables, ultimately the most important, in an overall evaluation.
3. Those are really cheap shots at Trey. Trey brings PLENTY to the table. No, putting the ball in the basket has not been one of them. But you can make a positive impact on the game without scoring. If you don't understand that, then you're not the kind of fan that most UD fans are. Most are pretty knowledgeable about the game and have an understanding about intangibles, chemistry and such.
4. Trey is not a starter. Hasn't started in several weeks. Just the facts ma'am.
5. This team has been very close this year to turning the corner, and still possibly could. They simply weren't good enough earlier in the year to win some of those games against quality opponents that would have swayed their at-large resume enough to be in the mix at this point in the season. But I also don't think that ANYBODY had realistic, at-large expectations for this team, this year. Hence, you have people suggesting that they're "ahead of schedule" and pleased with the progress of the team/program.
6. Part of this comes down to YOUR expectations of the team/program on year-to-year basis. Do you expect to be in the Dance EVERY YEAR? Regardless of circumstances like injuries, transfers, coaching transition, etc? Help us understand your expectations and then perhaps we'll understand your perspective better.
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02-21-2019, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
He's just trying to say that Archie did better than AG. Notice how he threw in the NIT reference.
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Right, just like Marysville thinks that we rarely came to play under BG and AM.
West Virginia, Ohio State, Syracuse, Stanford, Boise State, Providence, Xavier, a bunch of A10 teams, and a bunch of other teams think differently.
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02-21-2019, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
Just to tie it all up in a knot here, using the NCAA NET team sheets thru the 2/19 games, Virginia is #3 NET. Dayton is listed on their team sheet at #76. Going to Dayton at #76, they show the Flyers as 2-5 in Quad 1, with Virginia at #3. That seems to pull it all together.
Quad 1: 2-5 (0 remaining)
Quad 2: 0-3 (0 remaining)
Quad 3: 4-1 (4 remaining)
Quad 4: 11-0 (1 remaining)
And just for fun, Indiana is Q1 5-9 (3 remaining), Q2 0-4 (1 remaining), Q3 2-0 (1 remaining), Q4 6-0 (0 remaining)
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I was looking at Butler for the similar data. We beat Butler, obviously, and I see no real difference between us and them other than they get to play better schools because of the BE vs A10.
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02-21-2019, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
1. Don't distort or discount the facts. Duke plays 8 guys in their regular rotation. The guys you reference who only play ~13 minutes/game, have played in virtually EVERY GAME. And you're comparing us to Duke - a team/program with I don't how many McDonald's AA's and THREE Top 10 NBA draft picks on the team. Either way, I think we'd LOVE to have Matos take those ~13 minutes/game.
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The 2 guys for Duke averaging 12-13 minutes per game are also averaging 4.0 and 3.6 points per game. Cohill is likewise averaging 3.6 PPG.
So Duke has 8 guys averaging 12.5 minutes per game or more. Dayton has 7 guys averaging 12.5 (actually 15) minutes per game or more.
Then Duke has a guy averaging 5.5 minutes, and we have Frankie at 5.3.
So Duke has 12.5% more able bodied headcount than we do.
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02-21-2019, 05:08 PM
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I personally want to thank the King for showing me the " Light at the end of the tunnel." Philosophically, the light at the end of the tunnel can only be observed at the end of the tunnel. Let the season play out and lets see what happens. Last year I hoped for a breakeven year but we fell short. This years team, I believe, is about 10 points better than last year. The curve is upward. When you only have six or seven quality players, in game coaching, doesn't require much thought.
Watching Obi's game improve has been exciting. Nobody, ever thought Trey was a great player but I want him on my team. Even on the bench injured he's in the game. Next year is next year, let's enjoy the ride.
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02-21-2019, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
The 2 guys for Duke averaging 12-13 minutes per game are also averaging 4.0 and 3.6 points per game. Cohill is likewise averaging 3.6 PPG.
So Duke has 8 guys averaging 12.5 minutes per game or more. Dayton has 7 guys averaging 12.5 (actually 15) minutes per game or more.
Then Duke has a guy averaging 5.5 minutes, and we have Frankie at 5.3.
So Duke has 12.5% more able bodied headcount than we do.
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I notice you only responded to the Duke context. Two things: 1) we'd take the 12.5% additional able body that it would offer, hence the Matos comment and 2) comparing us to Duke is a ridiculous comparison in the first place. Compare us to similar programs or similar demographics re: conference, recruiting, scheduling, 3-star 4-star and 5-star players, coaching situation/longevity/continuity, injuries, transfers, budget, etc. hence the comment that Davidson is a better comparison. Those comparisons would better support an argument that our Pride Posters are just coming up with said "excuses"
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02-21-2019, 05:39 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
Nevada scheduled a bunch of tough away/neutral games including some Pac-12 games that turned out to be quadrant 2 (at Utah and at Arizona St almost always Quad 1). They tried to schedule tough, but didn't have Neil Sullivan scheduling for them so they swung and miss.
At Loyola Chicago
At USC
Neutral Arizona State
At Grand Canyon
At Utah
Home BYU
Neutral Tulsa
Neutral Umass
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We're blessed that our fan base travels well enough that we've got an open invite to the ESPN run exempt tourneys
Nevada despite the team they were bringing back ended up playing Tulsa and UMass in Vegas and two low majors at home for their exempt tourney this year
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02-21-2019, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
Archie versus AG in year 2 at Dayton.
AG kenpom 66
Archie kenpom 67
AG ESPN BPI 57
Archie ESPN BPI 71
AG wins above bubble (WAB*) = -1.2 wins for #70
Archie wins above bubble = -4.6 wins for #107
AG 4-7 kenpom A/B games (top 50/100 location adjusted) with 1-5 A & 3-2 B
Archie 2-11 kenpom A/B games with 1-6 A & 1-5 B
AG 6-6 road/neutral including 1-3 neutral & 5-3 road
Archie 4-10 road/neutral including 2-2 neutral & 2-8 road
You look at this and AG >> Archie in Year 2. Zero chance AG >> Archie in year 3 with the Elite 8 run, but good foundation for success if you are comparing years 2, AG clearly having a better year by any imaginable metric than Archie.
*Wins above bubble is basically if the average bubble team played your schedule, how many wins would they have (BTW, if Dayton won 2 more games this year would be at +.8 and squarely on the bubble).
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The A10 was much tougher Archie's second year and his win over Alabama on the road will likely be better than any this year
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02-21-2019, 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
The A10 was much tougher Archie's second year and his win over Alabama on the road will likely be better than any this year
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Kenpom does not care about the difficulty of A10.
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02-21-2019, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07
Let’s start with Duke. Only 6 play more than 20 minutes just like us. They have two others that play 12-13 minutes. And they have lots of blowouts that could allow others to play .
Beyond this let’s look at the a10’s Davidson . 6 guys get almost all the time.
Sure a better bench would be of help but I’m tired of the continual excuses. Lost our coach, stuck in the wrong conference, can’t schedule the big boys, lost Matos, ad nauseum. But what holds us back is the starting talent, starting with guys like “The Bricklayer” , the glue guy “Trey Landed”!
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that's odd.... against us. they had 7 players that had 12 minutes or more and an 8th player with six....they played more players than we did....unless that was an anomaly, Davidson playing 6 is incorrect....
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02-21-2019, 07:39 PM
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thoughts are:
The pitch, demeanor, and purposeful movement in the Davidson game was in striking contrast to the look in St.Louis and VCU at home.
They can play? Then they can't?
AG induces the mindset and there will be a shift.
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02-21-2019, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
Dayton is #57 in ESPN BPI and #67 in kenpom. Top 75 at the beginning of the season would be in my top 25% of outcomes. Likely scenario for me was about #100. Dayton is exceeding expectations in year 2 of the turn-around. Now just need to get lucky in the A-10 tourney for a NCAA bid. I honestly could care less about the NIT except it gives more practices games to the team.
BTW, Dayton projected as a NIT 5 seed.
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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Turn around? We’re Archie’s last 3 years of performance meriting of a “turn around”? So we want to reverse 76 & 25, with 2 first place and a second place finish in the league? Isn’t that the future all are opining for now? It’s time to move on from that position. AG didn’t like AM ‘s guys, work ethic, attitude, you pick the adjective. He cleaned house. He owns the current state of the team. I think most are pleased with the progress. I think we can face reality here. Based on the amount of time Crutcher, Davis, and Landers have played over the past two years, it’s hard to imagine substantial improvement. Some incremental improvement, yes. The team improvement next year will be dependent on the talent joining the team and Obi’s furthered development.
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02-21-2019, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Right, just like Marysville thinks that we rarely came to play under BG and AM.
West Virginia, Ohio State, Syracuse, Stanford, Boise State, Providence, Xavier, a bunch of A10 teams, and a bunch of other teams think differently.
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It’s easy to get up for the big names - except with Jr and Sr laden teams with tons of tourney experience but 0-2 in the most important games AM’s last 2 years.
I was at too many road games (and a few home clunkers too) under BG and AM to a lesser degree where we had 20+ turnovers and would have lost to Wright State by double digits (spelled GW, St Louis, DU, Lasalle, UMass, X, St Joes ). Duquesne in AM’s last or previous year was a very putrid egg.
No team shows up every night but somehow UD, especially AG’s teams are expected to because a few fans expect that.
This year’s team has been as consistent with intensity and focus game to game as any team I have can remember in the past 20 years despite many valid reasons to not be.
I’d be interested to know what our RPI ranking would be if that system was still in place. I have to believe we’d be a lot closer to the bubble if the selection criteria hadnt changed but that would just be another excuse if true.
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02-22-2019, 01:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Jeff
Turn around? We’re Archie’s last 3 years of performance meriting of a “turn around”? So we want to reverse 76 & 25, with 2 first place and a second place finish in the league? Isn’t that the future all are opining for now? It’s time to move on from that position. AG didn’t like AM ‘s guys, work ethic, attitude, you pick the adjective. He cleaned house. He owns the current state of the team. I think most are pleased with the progress. I think we can face reality here. Based on the amount of time Crutcher, Davis, and Landers have played over the past two years, it’s hard to imagine substantial improvement. Some incremental improvement, yes. The team improvement next year will be dependent on the talent joining the team and Obi’s furthered development.
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Turn-around was poor choice of language. Rebuild. He cleaned house because he was left with Crosby, Sobovoda, Pierce, Sam Miller .... Archie was amazing but let's not pretend he didn't see that it would be a 2 year rebuild.
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02-22-2019, 01:53 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
The A10 was much tougher Archie's second year and his win over Alabama on the road will likely be better than any this year
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That is the point of all the stats, they control for schedule difficultly .... AG objectively is having a materially better 2nd year than Archie did.
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02-22-2019, 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
Kenpom does not care about the difficulty of A10.
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That is exactly what all the kenpom stats control for .... one of the purposes of kenpom, WAB, etc. is to control for schedule including location.
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02-22-2019, 04:01 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
The A10 was much tougher Archie's second year and his win over Alabama on the road will likely be better than any this year
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And his 30pt home loss at home to Buffalo will be a worse performance than any result this year -- or last. Nevermind the 10 losses by 6 points or less in year two against a schedule weaker than this year's schedule -- which is saying something considering how down the A10 is this year.
There is + and - to the Archie Miller era. It wasnt all sunshine and rainbows. Archie's main hat-hanging came in NCAA tourney performance -- we advanced twice and needed dramatics in the first NCAA game each season to do that. We were one defensive possession away in the last 5 seconds from losing each game and never winning an NCAA game in Archie's entire coaching tenure here. The margins he succeeded in were the thinnest of any coach in the A10 in terms of NCAA success. To his credit his players made the last shot of both the OSU and Boise games to make Archie a lot of future earnings and both winning shots were on good coaching plays. But Sanford and Sibert still have to do 85% of the work and actually hit the shot.
But then we flamed out twice too in the NCAAs. Got trucked by Syracuse then Wichita abused us physically from start to finish. Two A10 season titles did not come until years five and six. Grant could challenge in year three -- or not.
Fans were ready to pack Archie's bags after 2.5 seasons. It was unfair to evaluate him until 4-5 seasons were under his belt. I feel the same about Grant. What Grant did or didnt do at Bama and VCU is not that much of a concern to me like other fans. Different jobs with different variables. Dayton is a unique variable in CBB. Maybe Gonzaga, Xavier, VCU, Creighton, and Marquette are the only fair comparisons to what goes on here and how the sausage gets made. Id throw Cincinnati in there but in most seasons while Cincy has the NCAA habits, their fan base has always been fickle.
McDermott pretty much flamed out at Iowa State. Resurrected himself at Creighton -- even after his son graduated. Iowa fans high-fived one another when Alford left Ames. Did well at UNM. Did okay at UCLA but not as well as he should have. Will do fine again at a MVC or MWC school where his recruiting prowess results in Ws.
If we're not in the NCAA tourney at the end of the 2020-21 season, lets talk. We could get there next year if things come together.
__________________
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"Yeah....220, 221, whatever it takes." - Jack Butler (Mr. Mom)
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02-22-2019, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
...Archie's main hat-hanging came in NCAA tourney performance -- we advanced twice and needed dramatics in the first NCAA game each season to do that. We were one defensive possession away in the last 5 seconds from losing each game and never winning an NCAA game in Archie's entire coaching tenure here. The margins he succeeded in were the thinnest of any coach in the A10 in terms of NCAA success. To his credit his players made the last shot of both the OSU and Boise games to make Archie a lot of future earnings and both winning shots were on good coaching plays. But Sanford and Sibert still have to do 85% of the work and actually hit the shot...
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And another point is, once we beat OSU by 1, we only won the next game against Syracuse by 2. Three points in the right direction for our Flyers were the difference between a Sweet Sixteen appearance and the proverbial Maxwell Smart “Missed it by THAT MUCH.”
Don’t get me wrong. It was a great 4-year run, and especially the first 2 years. But Archie Miller isn’t the 2nd coming of John Wooden, and Anthony Grant isn’t the 2nd coming of Jim Crews. Or vice versa.
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02-22-2019, 09:46 AM
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Still a lot to play for; and I have not given up totally on an NCAA TOURNAMENT Appearance, be it in the Forum of an Atlantic 10 championship or win the remaining games and run it out to the championship game, finish runner up, and see what happens.
Regardless of NCAA'S or not, every game left has significant impact on what happens in Mid-March for our Flyers. Just look around the greater region, and there are a plethora of potentially great NIT Match-ups brewing in Ohio and around the tri-state area. One could easily see UD in one or more match-ups against the likes of Wright State, Ohio State, Indiana, or Xavier is not completely out of the equation. One or more of said match-ups could be at the UD ARENA. Any of these scenarios would be compelling and exciting.
Every win the rest of the way has higher NIT seeding implications, which translates into a greater likelihood said games are at the UD Arena. Obviously that is much better than having to play at Columbus, Bloomington, or the place we haven't won in nearly 40 years.
Go Flyers Beat Everyone!
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02-22-2019, 09:54 AM
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Or how about a home game in Spokane against Ed Cooley's Providence team?
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02-22-2019, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
And another point is, once we beat OSU by 1, we only won the next game against Syracuse by 2. Three points in the right direction for our Flyers were the difference between a Sweet Sixteen appearance and the proverbial Maxwell Smart “Missed it by THAT MUCH.”
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Don’t forget we beat Syracuse in their own backyard. Syracuse was rooting for UD against OSU and we took them down in Buffalo. A home game for them but outdone by the Flyers and the Flyer Faithful! Two of my kids were at UD and both made the trip to Buffalo. Met them in Memphis the next weekend!
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02-22-2019, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
Still a lot to play for; and I have not given up totally on an NCAA TOURNAMENT Appearance, be it in the Forum of an Atlantic 10 championship or win the remaining games and run it out to the championship game, finish runner up, and see what happens.
Regardless of NCAA'S or not, every game left has significant impact on what happens in Mid-March for our Flyers. Just look around the greater region, and there are a plethora of potentially great NIT Match-ups brewing in Ohio and around the tri-state area. One could easily see UD in one or more match-ups against the likes of Wright State, Ohio State, Indiana, or Xavier is not completely out of the equation. One or more of said match-ups could be at the UD ARENA. Any of these scenarios would be compelling and exciting.
Every win the rest of the way has higher NIT seeding implications, which translates into a greater likelihood said games are at the UD Arena. Obviously that is much better than having to play at Columbus, Bloomington, or the place we haven't won in nearly 40 years.
Go Flyers Beat Everyone!
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So there was part of me that was clinging to a "run off the next 7 and get to the finals" and perhaps we'll be in the mix. In my somewhat brief review of teams in similar NET rankings with just a Quad 1 win or 2, like UD, what is really going to get us excluded is our lack of essentially an Quad 2 wins. I'm not sure we even have any Quad 2 wins, or have even played any Quad 2 games other that at SLU and neutral Tulsa.
That's directly attributable to the A10 being down this year. Most years, we could expect to play anywhere from 4-8 Quad 2 games in conference, most of them being road conference games. This year, we simply don't have those opportunities.
Even if we run off the next 7, that probably doesn't get us ANY further quality (Quad 1 or Quad 2) wins, except for perhaps the A10 semis against a Davidson or VCU. They're simply not there.
Who knows? The committee seems to have a weird selection or two each year, but one thing is for certain, our resume is going to lack Quad 1, and in particular Quad 2, wins come Selection Sunday.
Might I quote Jake Taylor from Major League, "Then I guess there's only one thing left for us to do.............win the whole. F@ck!n'. Thing."
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02-22-2019, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
So there was part of me that was clinging to a "run off the next 7 and get to the finals" and perhaps we'll be in the mix. In my somewhat brief review of teams in similar NET rankings with just a Quad 1 win or 2, like UD, what is really going to get us excluded is our lack of essentially an Quad 2 wins. I'm not sure we even have any Quad 2 wins, or have even played any Quad 2 games other that at SLU and neutral Tulsa.
That's directly attributable to the A10 being down this year. Most years, we could expect to play anywhere from 4-8 Quad 2 games in conference, most of them being road conference games. This year, we simply don't have those opportunities.
Even if we run off the next 7, that probably doesn't get us ANY further quality (Quad 1 or Quad 2) wins, except for perhaps the A10 semis against a Davidson or VCU. They're simply not there.
Who knows? The committee seems to have a weird selection or two each year, but one thing is for certain, our resume is going to lack Quad 1, and in particular Quad 2, wins come Selection Sunday.
Might I quote Jake Taylor from Major League, "Then I guess there's only one thing left for us to do.............win the whole. F@ck!n'. Thing."
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I agree with most of this with the exception being that if we somehow won the A10 regular season outright, which is a long shot because we would need to win out and other teams ahead of us would need to lose multiple games. But I think that might get us in regardless of the Q1 and Q2 wins.
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02-22-2019, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
I agree with most of this with the exception being that if we somehow won the A10 regular season outright, which is a long shot because we would need to win out and other teams ahead of us would need to lose multiple games. But I think that might get us in regardless of the Q1 and Q2 wins.
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That's a fair position, just one I don't agree with, based on the Selection Committee's history. They apply little value to winning the regular season conference title, particularly to the 8th or 9th rated conference in the country. Their solution to that was/is, "well, they get an auto invite to the NIT". That tells me enough about how they'd value an A10 regular season championship by UD this year.
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02-22-2019, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
I notice you only responded to the Duke context. Two things: 1) we'd take the 12.5% additional able body that it would offer, hence the Matos comment and 2) comparing us to Duke is a ridiculous comparison in the first place. Compare us to similar programs or similar demographics re: conference, recruiting, scheduling, 3-star 4-star and 5-star players, coaching situation/longevity/continuity, injuries, transfers, budget, etc. hence the comment that Davidson is a better comparison. Those comparisons would better support an argument that our Pride Posters are just coming up with said "excuses"
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For the record, I was agreeing with you. I think you are interpreting that I'm not. 12.5% increase in available and reasonably productive minutes would be HUGE.
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02-22-2019, 01:27 PM
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I don't believe any outright A-10 Champion has ever been left out of the NCAA. I think St Bonnie was the first co/tri champ to be left out in 15-16. Dayton, VCU, and St Bonnie were all 14-4 and St Joe was 13-5. St Joe won the A-10 Tourney which screwed St Bonnie. I think if Dayton or VCU had won the tourney St Bonnie might have gotten in, but we'll never know. The committee just couldn't pull the trigger on a 4th A-10 team.
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02-22-2019, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
For the record, I was agreeing with you. I think you are interpreting that I'm not. 12.5% increase in available and reasonably productive minutes would be HUGE.
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Perhaps I just mis-interpreted it. Chalk it up to me being an idiot or just having a udscott moment where I just assumed everybody was disagreeing with me.
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02-22-2019, 02:33 PM
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I think the year may have finally come when we only get one team into the tournament . The only way we don’t is if that team winning the auto bid is not VCU. I can even see a scenario where they send VCU to Dayton if another team wins the auto bid.
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02-22-2019, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
And his 30pt home loss at home to Buffalo will be a worse performance than any result this year -- or last. Nevermind the 10 losses by 6 points or less in year two against a schedule weaker than this year's schedule -- which is saying something considering how down the A10 is this year.
There is + and - to the Archie Miller era. It wasnt all sunshine and rainbows. Archie's main hat-hanging came in NCAA tourney performance -- we advanced twice and needed dramatics in the first NCAA game each season to do that. We were one defensive possession away in the last 5 seconds from losing each game and never winning an NCAA game in Archie's entire coaching tenure here. The margins he succeeded in were the thinnest of any coach in the A10 in terms of NCAA success. To his credit his players made the last shot of both the OSU and Boise games to make Archie a lot of future earnings and both winning shots were on good coaching plays. But Sanford and Sibert still have to do 85% of the work and actually hit the shot.
But then we flamed out twice too in the NCAAs. Got trucked by Syracuse then Wichita abused us physically from start to finish. Two A10 season titles did not come until years five and six. Grant could challenge in year three -- or not.
Fans were ready to pack Archie's bags after 2.5 seasons. It was unfair to evaluate him until 4-5 seasons were under his belt. I feel the same about Grant. What Grant did or didnt do at Bama and VCU is not that much of a concern to me like other fans. Different jobs with different variables. Dayton is a unique variable in CBB. Maybe Gonzaga, Xavier, VCU, Creighton, and Marquette are the only fair comparisons to what goes on here and how the sausage gets made. Id throw Cincinnati in there but in most seasons while Cincy has the NCAA habits, their fan base has always been fickle.
McDermott pretty much flamed out at Iowa State. Resurrected himself at Creighton -- even after his son graduated. Iowa fans high-fived one another when Alford left Ames. Did well at UNM. Did okay at UCLA but not as well as he should have. Will do fine again at a MVC or MWC school where his recruiting prowess results in Ws.
If we're not in the NCAA tourney at the end of the 2020-21 season, lets talk. We could get there next year if things come together.
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No denying that NCAA wins where nice under Archie but to me the big highlight of his time to Dayton was being able to get there 4 straight times.
Since UD joined the A10 there's been one other coached that accomplished that feat, Sean Miller. It's pretty rarefied air for any non power conference team to make 4 straight NCAA appearances. Being able to get to the tourney year after year says more about the state of a program than one run in the tourney.
Dayton is spending 72 million to renovate the Arena. There's probably a large of pool of A10 schools that haven't spent that on their entire basketball program this century combined.
UD in terms of resources and basketball spending is far ahead of everyone save VCU in the conference.
Whether it's Coach Grant, Gregory or Miller the mark of success isn't one post season but rather having the program in the shape to be able to put it in the position for NCAA success every year
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02-22-2019, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
No denying that NCAA wins where nice under Archie but to me the big highlight of his time to Dayton was being able to get there 4 straight times.
Since UD joined the A10 there's been one other coached that accomplished that feat, Sean Miller. It's pretty rarefied air for any non power conference team to make 4 straight NCAA appearances. Being able to get to the tourney year after year says more about the state of a program than one run in the tourney.
Dayton is spending 72 million to renovate the Arena. There's probably a large of pool of A10 schools that haven't spent that on their entire basketball program this century combined.
UD in terms of resources and basketball spending is far ahead of everyone save VCU in the conference.
Whether it's Coach Grant, Gregory or Miller the mark of success isn't one post season but rather having the program in the shape to be able to put it in the position for NCAA success every year
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I agree with your line of thinking about consistent appearances in the NCAA but I think you have to dig a little bit deeper. The reason so few coaches have sustained success in the A10 is because the coach eventually gets a "promotion" to the P5. As a result of that, there is usually a down year or two as the rebuild happens.
This is EXACTLY why I think Grant is the right person for UD. Given the resource superiority and a coach that will stay for 15-20 years, I fully expect Grant to mirror the success of Mark Few during his tenure. I think we're,seeing,the green shoots of this now and by this time next year it will be obvious---even to maddog, UDScott, and UD2.
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02-22-2019, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
I don't believe any outright A-10 Champion has ever been left out of the NCAA. I think St Bonnie was the first co/tri champ to be left out in 15-16. Dayton, VCU, and St Bonnie were all 14-4 and St Joe was 13-5. St Joe won the A-10 Tourney which screwed St Bonnie. I think if Dayton or VCU had won the tourney St Bonnie might have gotten in, but we'll never know. The committee just couldn't pull the trigger on a 4th A-10 team.
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I suspect this is accurate, or very close to. But there's a few things here to think about :
1) 2019 A10 is the 12th rated conference according to RPI. I can't recall, not since we've been in the A10, that they've ever been rated that low, or even outside the Top 10. Here's the A10 conference ranks for the last 10 years: 11th, 8th, 7th, 7th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 10th, 6th, 8th.
2) They've gone to the NET rankings as a key measuring stick and the formula is not public and we have no history on how NET will actually be applied. But given the NET rankings of our A10 teams, it doesn't look good.
3) We're in year 2, I think, of the Quad Win system. Last year's UD team was so far off the grid, I probably didn't dissect the at-large pool as much as I normally would. But the Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins seem to be dominating the at-large resumes and Dayton's resume is and will be lacking quality wins within that system. For example, in 2017 there were 6 teams in the Top 100 from the A10. 2016 there were 5. 2015 there were 7. In 2014 there were 9, with 6 in the Top 40. This year there are just 3. The number of quality win opportunities within the A10 is SO FAR DOWN this year, it's almost not even worth comparing.
I hope we get to find out, as that means the Flyers will have a nice win streak and be in the A10 finals, but analytics tells me that "projected" resume will not get us in. Probably in the First 10 out though.
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02-22-2019, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
I don't believe any outright A-10 Champion has ever been left out of the NCAA. I think St Bonnie was the first co/tri champ to be left out in 15-16. Dayton, VCU, and St Bonnie were all 14-4 and St Joe was 13-5. St Joe won the A-10 Tourney which screwed St Bonnie. I think if Dayton or VCU had won the tourney St Bonnie might have gotten in, but we'll never know. The committee just couldn't pull the trigger on a 4th A-10 team.
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That was one of the biggest snubs in history. I believe their RPI was right at 30 and they had 3-4 top 50 wins with a solid overall SOS. One of only a handful of teams ever left out with a 30 or better RPI.
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02-22-2019, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
No denying that NCAA wins where nice under Archie but to me the big highlight of his time to Dayton was being able to get there 4 straight times.
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I always make this point. You can't get lucky (and I agree with Chris there was luck involved) if you don't get invited to the party. That's why getting into the NCAA is so dang important.
Wasn't it last year that Syracuse sucked and got invited anyway, then made it really far? They should have never even been there. But when you stuff the field with P5 schools your odds are just that much better to eventually catch a break.
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02-22-2019, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
I always make this point. You can't get lucky (and I agree with Chris there was luck involved) if you don't get invited to the party. That's why getting into the NCAA is so dang important.
Wasn't it last year that Syracuse sucked and got invited anyway, then made it really far? They should have never even been there. But when you stuff the field with P5 schools your odds are just that much better to eventually catch a break.
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The year Cuse beat UD people didn't think they should have made it. The UD- Cuse matchup was the last one announced and people on twitter were thinking they were out
Cuse has been living on the bubble for a while but seems to make it in
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02-22-2019, 03:52 PM
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There's luck involved in tourney runs even for national title teams. Tyus Edney going coast to coast against Missouri the year UCLA won the title in the 90s. Derrick Rose missing a FT and Mario Chalmers hitting a 3 to force OT the year Kansas won.
Building a program to be able to take advantage of those situations isn't luck.
People can say Archie got lucky (he probably did) but the real feat was getting Dayton in that position
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02-22-2019, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
I agree with your line of thinking about consistent appearances in the NCAA but I think you have to dig a little bit deeper. The reason so few coaches have sustained success in the A10 is because the coach eventually gets a "promotion" to the P5. As a result of that, there is usually a down year or two as the rebuild happens.
This is EXACTLY why I think Grant is the right person for UD. Given the resource superiority and a coach that will stay for 15-20 years, I fully expect Grant to mirror the success of Mark Few during his tenure. I think we're,seeing,the green shoots of this now and by this time next year it will be obvious---even to maddog, UDScott, and UD2.
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Definitely true that many coaches leave but even good coaches that are lifers like Phil Martelli haven't done it
Looking to other high level non power leagues Steve Alford never put together 4 straight appearances and he was at New Mexico 6 years. It took Steve Fischer a decade at San Diego State before he put together consecutive NCAA appearances. Randy Bennet at St. Mary's hasn't done and he's been there most of this century
Gregg McDermott is in his 9th season at Creighton and he hasn't done it
Lon Krueger couldn't do it in 7 years at UNLV
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Mad Props to OSU Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-22-2019, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
The year Cuse beat UD people didn't think they should have made it. The UD- Cuse matchup was the last one announced and people on twitter were thinking they were out
Cuse has been living on the bubble for a while but seems to make it in
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Actually, that was the year the bracket got leaked. I knew Dayton was playing in St. Louis almost as the show kicked off and well before the pairing was actually aired during the show. The bracket was all over social media while the show was unveiling.
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Mad Props to SLUFLYER For This Totally Excellent Post:
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