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  #1  
Old 03-22-2018, 12:36 AM
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Recalculate your result: the mid-range jumper

I've said all along that the mid-range jumper isn't a bad shot, it's that today's game has bad shooters who shoot it. Can't shoot? Bully your way to layups (and count on the size of your contract to get you FT's). Can shoot, but just a little? Practice 1 shot: the standing 3 pointer.

If you can shoot, then you can get fly-bys at the 3 point line, and rather than take the "4th-and-1 approach" to offense (all the way to the rim or nothing) you can have an easy, uncontested 15 footer that's just a glorified layup. IF YOU CAN SHOOT.

The mid-range shot is a huge weapon, Warriors coach Steve Kerr said earlier this season. I always laugh when people say the mid-range shot is a horrible shot. What if its wide open? It seems like a great shot.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mid...ors-1521557144
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:17 AM
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Also seemed to be a lost art...the ability the actually use the backboard to bank a mid-range jumper (except by accident of course). That shot used to be a standard arsenal shot- not anymore...
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:19 AM
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Thanks for sharing. I would love to send this article to every high school and AAU coach in the country, as they almost all preach shoot the 3 or the lay up, nothing else. I actually saw a high school coach this year bench a kid in a scrimmage for missing a wide open 15 footer and told her it was a bad shot. Guess it did not matter that the first two from 15' were nothing but net.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Thanks for sharing. I would love to send this article to every high school and AAU coach in the country, as they almost all preach shoot the 3 or the lay up, nothing else. I actually saw a high school coach this year bench a kid in a scrimmage for missing a wide open 15 footer and told her it was a bad shot. Guess it did not matter that the first two from 15' were nothing but net.
They are good shots when they go in. Bad shots when they don't.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:44 AM
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From reffing experience, the most under utilize and dangerous move a ballhandler can make is the jumpstop from a step inside the FT line. Defenses expect you to drive to the hole or dish to the baseline cutter as soon as the ballhandler penetrates the 3-point line...so they retreat to defend the basket.

It doesn't happen often, but when a kid does a jump stop and nails the 12-footer, he's always wide open and typically gets a 'great jumpstop' comment from the royal ref as we run downcourt.
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Old 03-22-2018, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
It doesn't happen often, but when a kid does a jump stop and nails the 12-footer, he's always wide open and typically gets a 'great jumpstop' comment from the royal ref as we run downcourt.
Speaking of the jumpstop...

I was told years ago that when you come to a jumpstop you don't have a pivot foot. But recently, I know I've seen players come to a jumpstop and then pivot off one foot to create space from a defender.

What's the rule and has that rule ever changed?
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
They are good shots when they go in. Bad shots when they don't.
When I was playing nearly every day, I would hit 15 footers like layups. Total no-doubter. If I missed one I was more shocked than disappointed. And I wasn't all that good.

When they don't go in, I would venture to say you're not a very good shooter, OR, you're not wide open. Or, the occasional miss--but you miss layups too.
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Lowd&ProUD View Post
Speaking of the jumpstop...

I was told years ago that when you come to a jumpstop you don't have a pivot foot. But recently, I know I've seen players come to a jumpstop and then pivot off one foot to create space from a defender.

What's the rule and has that rule ever changed?
You can jumpstop and have a pivot foot and you can jumpstop and have pivot FEET...it all depends on the steps taken before the jumpstop.

For the most part, a legal jump stop means both feet hit the court at the exact same time so both are considered THE pivot foot. If it's 'exact', then you can't move either one without 'travelling'.

If you jump stop while dribbling (rare but it happens) then your feet don't have to land at the same time and in this case the first foot to hit the court is the pivot.
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:28 AM
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With dedicated practice the short jumper should be a 60 to 70% shot. I don't know who would argue with that one as a weapon. And relearning the use of the backboard wouldn't be a bad idea either.

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Old 03-22-2018, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post

For the most part, a legal jump stop means both feet hit the court at the exact same time so both are considered THE pivot foot. If it's 'exact', then you can't move either one without 'travelling'.

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Old 03-22-2018, 01:00 PM
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Interesting quote from Dan D'Antonio brother of Mike D'Antonio head coach of the Houston rockets. Not necessarily about the mid-range jumper but about the evolution of the basketball offense to 3's or layups.

"You see those top three teams. Golden State do they work it [inside]? My brother in Houston, the biggest turnaround in the league do they work it in? You can go get any computer and run what the best shots are and it will tell you the post-up is the worst shot in basketball. If you want to run down and try to get it [in the paint] to shoot over somebody, then you're beating analytics. The best shot in basketball is that corner three. The next-best shot in basketball is any other three. Other than free throws, which we try to do, when you get to the foul line, you score 1.5 points every time you go to the foul line in the pros. It just trickles down. It's the same thing for college kids..."

"If you can get a layup and it's clean it's not one that's highly contested it's [worth] 1.8 points [per attempt]. It's 1.3 from that corner, 1.27. Do you know what a post-up is, with a guy standing over top of you? It's 0.78. So you run your team down there and we'll see how long you can stay with teams that can play the other way. You've seen it in the NBA. The last two championships have been Cleveland and Golden State. What do they do? You don't see anybody post up. They just spread that thing out and go."

D'Antoni said he changed his coaching philosophy years ago, saying he used to coach like a "dummy" by trying to force post-ups.
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Old 03-22-2018, 01:14 PM
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Good luck getting that shot blocking and intimidating defender in foul trouble and on the bench chucking up those corner 3s.
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Old 03-22-2018, 01:48 PM
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D'Antoni is dead on. Statistics can be misleading if not properly interpreted, but the stats bear out the fact that the mid-range shot is statistically downright silly, unless unguarded when the shot clock is winding down.

Don't think of the 3 as being worth one more point, but being worth 50% more.

You only have to shoot 33% from behind the arc to equal 50% on 2's.

If a team shoots 45% on 3's, you need to shoot a whopping 67.5% on 2's to match.

As a height challenged player myself, I love how the 3 point shot has made smaller guys who can shoot more valuable. But to me, the 50% difference is just too much. An ideal scenario in my opinion is that the "3" is worth say 25-33% more, not 50% more. But that would require radically altering how the game is scored, so it'll never happen.
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Old 03-22-2018, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Lowd&ProUD View Post
D'Antoni is dead on. Statistics can be misleading if not properly interpreted, but the stats bear out the fact that the mid-range shot is statistically downright silly, unless unguarded when the shot clock is winding down.

Don't think of the 3 as being worth one more point, but being worth 50% more.

You only have to shoot 33% from behind the arc to equal 50% on 2's.

If a team shoots 45% on 3's, you need to shoot a whopping 67.5% on 2's to match.

As a height challenged player myself, I love how the 3 point shot has made smaller guys who can shoot more valuable. But to me, the 50% difference is just too much. An ideal scenario in my opinion is that the "3" is worth say 25-33% more, not 50% more. But that would require radically altering how the game is scored, so it'll never happen.
It's not a static system, it's dynamic. The stats assume the system is static.

Assume a guy is guarding you very tight at the 3 point line. You dribble past the 3 point line so the guy turns his back and runs to the front of the rim, then turns around and waits for you there. Since it's such a statistically horrible shot, that's the rational defense. Right?

Have you considered that at the 3 point line, defenders must give more room because they need to be ready to retreat on a drive. On a 15 foot jumper they can be tighter to the shooter because there's less real estate to make up on the way to the rim. And on a layup they will highly contest the shooter. So an UNCONTESTED 15 footer (not every 15 footer that shows up in the statistics) may actually be a very good shot?

If FT's are worth 1.5 points per trip that makes you a 75% shooter on uncontested 15 footers. You only need 50% for the math to work.

People keep quoting stats like they're all equal. It's equivalent to saying "Shaq shoots 50% from the free throw line, so free throws are bad." No, FT's for Shaq are bad. Steph Curry will hit 90%+ of uncontested 15 footers. Steph Curry should NOT drive directly into the teeth of 3 defenders when he can shoot an uncontested 15 footer.
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Old 03-22-2018, 04:54 PM
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It's very difficult to beat the Syracuse zone without someone who is a threat to hit the foul line jumper. Just ask Dyshawn Pierre.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:44 PM
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Let's not pretend like completely uncontested 15-foot shots are there all day long for the taking.

Anyone notice what the Trail Blazers are doing in the NBA? Their rise started when someone on their staff noticed how they were a good shooting 3-point team, but down rather low in 3-pointers taken. The remedy wasn't just to jack up more 3's, but to take more good 3's and voila, they're "playing better" than they have in years. A crazy thing called math.

You can talk static and dynamic all you want, but how many players are out there ... college, pro, outer space ... who make 67.5% of their mid-range shots in live game action? But I can find a really long list that make 45% of their 3's.
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Old 03-22-2018, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Lowd&ProUD View Post
Let's not pretend like completely uncontested 15-foot shots are there all day long for the taking.

Anyone notice what the Trail Blazers are doing in the NBA? Their rise started when someone on their staff noticed how they were a good shooting 3-point team, but down rather low in 3-pointers taken. The remedy wasn't just to jack up more 3's, but to take more good 3's and voila, they're "playing better" than they have in years. A crazy thing called math.

You can talk static and dynamic all you want, but how many players are out there ... college, pro, outer space ... who make 67.5% of their mid-range shots in live game action? But I can find a really long list that make 45% of their 3's.
NO ONE is saying contested 15 footers are a great shot. Just that they are included in the "total shots taken in the mid-range shot" set of statistics.

An average shooter at the DIII level, left uncontested, can hit 2 out of 3 15 footers. Not the beefy power forward--take them out of the statistics. Not the London Warrens. Take them out of the statistics.

IF, and ONLY IF, you are a good shooter (which many of the people included in the sum total of the statistics ARE NOT), you will hit 2 out of 3 UNcontested 15 footers even under game conditions.

So, if you live by the mantra "all 15 footers are bad because the statistics (which include the bad shooters, the last second chucks, etc.), then your GOOD SHOOTERS will be taught to pass on a good shot for bad reasons.

To be clear: London Warren should drive to the rim, not take the 15 footer. Teach him to go all the way to the rim.
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