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09-16-2016, 09:22 AM
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Loyola Marymount
Current figgie123 rpis going into this weekend:
22-UD
57-So ILL
108-Loyola Marymount
197-Youngstown State
Overall, this weekends schedule should not hurt ourselves with rpi. I expect us to go 3-0 for the weekend, but a loss to either SILL or LMM would not be a big hit to our rpi in my very uneducated opinion. (I'm trying to really study rpi inter workings this year and I highly recommend you pop out to Figgies rpi stat sheet. Click on any team and you get great two great spreadsheets Figgie has programmed that show each team on the schedule and what category they fall into at any given time - that update as the season progresses. Great resource.)
I see A couple things that might help our rpi this weekend. 1. Take care of business against YSU. 2. Go 3-0. 3. Because of the overall strength of the teams playing this weekend, there is a possibility that both SoILL and LMM have the possibility to both move up into the next segment of the rpi calculations. 4. I estimate (big guess) we could move up to maybe 15 is we go 3-0. We need to be as high as we can get because everyone we play after this weekend is in the lowest rpi segment (151+) except GW who is 150 and could drop into the lowest segment. It's highly probable even if we go undefeated, our rpi drops every week after this week.
Bottom line is we need to take care of business again this weekend starting tonight against LMM. They are the 6th toughest team on our schedule based on current rpi. SoILL is the toughest. Ladies need to get after it.
It's also Alumni Weekend.
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09-16-2016, 09:37 AM
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I'm going to try to simplify how to talk/type a teams rpi "segment". part of the rpi calculation for each team is based on that teams win-loss against opponents in a breakdown of these segments as follows:
Rpi 1-25. (Segment A)
26-50. (B)
51-100. (C)
101-150. (D)
151+. (E)
I have assigned the A-B-C-D-E
So in the above post I can now write that SoILL is currently in segment C but they have a chance this weekend to move up 6 or more spots into segment B. If LMM can move up 7 or more spots the go from a D into C. If either or both of these can happen, it helps Dayton's rpi calculation.
Also, George Washington is currently 150- barely a D. All other opponents left on our schedule this year are currently an E, which is why we will probably continue to drop in the rpi as the season progresses.
In the past I've always hated that some A-10 teams were high 200s and even 300s. I thought it really hurt our rpi. That's not really true now that I've started studying it, because any team with an rpi above 150 is treated the same in the calculation. So scheduling someone with an rpi of 165 is the same as 265 in the math. I still want the 165, because that team should help us get ready to play tougher teams, but 265 doesn't hurt us like I thought it did.
Last edited by BeckysTXA; 09-16-2016 at 09:44 AM..
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09-16-2016, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA
part of the rpi calculation for each team is based on that teams win-loss against opponents in a breakdown of these segments as follows:
Rpi 1-25. (Segment A)
26-50. (B)
51-100. (C)
101-150. (D)
151+. (E)
I have assigned the A-B-C-D-E
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Let's clarify this here...
The RPI calculation, in and of itself, is a simple (sort of) math calculation. Your winning percentage, your opponent's winning percentage, and your opponents opponents' winning percentage.
Nowhere in that math calculation does it take into consideration where in the RPI rankings your opponent is.
On the TeamSheet page you referred to, though, I do break out the record against the teams in certain rankings. This is to mirror what the NCAA does when they create their RPI sheets for the selection committee. (all sports)
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09-16-2016, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
Let's clarify this here...
The RPI calculation, in and of itself, is a simple (sort of) math calculation. Your winning percentage, your opponent's winning percentage, and your opponents opponents' winning percentage.
Nowhere in that math calculation does it take into consideration where in the RPI rankings your opponent is.
On the TeamSheet page you referred to, though, I do break out the record against the teams in certain rankings. This is to mirror what the NCAA does when they create their RPI sheets for the selection committee. (all sports)
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As I said, I'm just getting into learning about rpi and the math, so thank you for the clarification. So this leads to other questions. The first is, the rpis of all your opponents and their opponents - does that factor into your strength of schedule? And how is the SOS calculated into your rpi math?
Finally, I think it's correct to then say the following, but correct me if I'm wrong:
When it comes to at-large bids and the committee evaluations on who gets a bid, w-l records within each segment is looked at. Do we know if the committee looks beyond the record? In other words do they look at who you beat within the 51-100 segment? Or do they consider all those wins equally. If you beat rpi #57 and #63 and are 2-0 within that segment and another team you are competing against for an at-large bid beat #87 and #98 for the same 2-0 record within that group. Does it matter? Or are both even in this part of the evaluation?
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09-16-2016, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA
As I said, I'm just getting into learning about rpi and the math, so thank you for the clarification. So this leads to other questions. The first is, the rpis of all your opponents and their opponents - does that factor into your strength of schedule? And how is the SOS calculated into your rpi math?
Finally, I think it's correct to then say the following, but correct me if I'm wrong:
When it comes to at-large bids and the committee evaluations on who gets a bid, w-l records within each segment is looked at. Do we know if the committee looks beyond the record? In other words do they look at who you beat within the 51-100 segment? Or do they consider all those wins equally. If you beat rpi #57 and #63 and are 2-0 within that segment and another team you are competing against for an at-large bid beat #87 and #98 for the same 2-0 record within that group. Does it matter? Or are both even in this part of the evaluation?
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SOS is specifically a teams average opponents winning percentage. That SOS is 50% of a team's RPI value.
As for at-large bids and the selection committee, it's a process. Chris R posted last year in the Basketball Forums, and in the Article section, about how the Men's Basketball Mock Selection went. The members of the committee should have been watching teams in their core areas (certain conferences) and can speak of those teams. Everyone choose a few teams to argue for, and there is voting going on. That's how teams are chosen.
Based on my attempts at guessing the selection committee picks, for an at-large big, a Top40 RPI rank is almost a guarantee in volleyball. Then a Big5 school with a Top50 RPI rank is almost a guarantee. Then for whatever spots they have left they weigh the remaining teams, and Top25 and Top50 wins seems to take priority. This is what will give Dayton fits if it comes to an at-large bid. We may end up with no Top50 games whatsoever. And if we lose in the A10 Championship, we could be mid 40s, possibly, and on the outside looking in.
Just win the next one!
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09-16-2016, 12:10 PM
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I agree we maybe on the outside if we need a at-large bid because sitting here today we have no Top 50 teams on our schedule. So looking at our highest rpi team today, that's #56 SoILL playing at UD later today and this weekend. So all UD fans need to support this team except for our match tomorrow evening we need to pray they win enough to get into that 26-50 group in case we need it with the committee.
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09-16-2016, 02:48 PM
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Given how good Loyola Marymount are and how weak the remaining schedule is, this could be a very important weekend. SLU has shown the ability to win a couple big matches. The A-10 tourney is in Saint Louis so I don't think we can rule out the possibility of Dayton needing an at large bid.
GW is at home this weekend and they bring a few strong programs into their building. Could be one of the last opportunities for the A-10 to get a team above a 150 rpi and make it look like Dayton isn't the only good team. GW plays James Madison, NIU, and Tennessee. Rhody plays Penn State and Duquesne plays Missouri and Miami. That should strengthen our opponent's rpi and improve that 3rd level of rpi calc, right? Rhode Island has a chance to beat Howsrd which has had a surprisingly good season. That feels like a really big match for the A-10. I would hate for our 4th/5th best team to lose to a team in the MEAC.
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09-16-2016, 03:19 PM
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Udisit - I'm just starting to look at how the rpi looks. I thought the math was affected by the segments I outlined above. Figgie corrected me so I want to make sure others don't read it like I was reading it. Figgie can correct the following if it's wrong as we all try to learn on the job here. The segments above are used by the committee when they evaluate who should get an at-large bid. So in that regard our records within each segment is important, but Figgie also said mostly it comes down to your record in the top two segments - or against the top 50 rpi. Right now we have zero matches against teams in the top 50' but a possibility for So ILL to move up.
i don't understand the math yet, but I'm going to continue to study it because I want to know it. I'm sure I'll make a few more mistakes interpreting everything before I get there...but I will get there. The SOS is a teams opponents average win-loss percentage per Figgie above. And it counts 50% of your rpi math. I'll try to pull a couple examples later this weekend so we can all get our head around the math.
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09-16-2016, 04:49 PM
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That would be great. I've never given much thought that a one loss UD team wouldn't get an at large bid. It is possible that they might ignore the top 40 rpi number if you only had one loss but we don't know that.
If they run the entire table it would be an interesting seeding issue. Where do you seed an undefeated team without a top 50 win, lol
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09-16-2016, 06:50 PM
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I think for the last couple years we have seen parity in the sport start to creep in. It will wreck havoc on the rip when that happens. Look at PSU this year. After how many national championships this decade, they sit at an figgie rpi of 86. Penn State isn't a Top 50 team right now in the rip after 3 weeks. Unreal. However, their conference schedule should help them move up.
I'm going to look at 7-10 teams and follow what happens to their rpi in a case study kind of way. obviously UD will be in that mix. I think this is a 3-4 year process to get any real indication of any insights that might help a team in scheduling for a 1-2 bid conference. But you have to start to see if any conclusions can be made, so what the heck. I'll at least understand how rip works in detail when I'm done even if no conclusions come out of it.
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09-16-2016, 07:13 PM
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LMU up 8-5 early in the 1st. LMU is a good blocking team. So is SoILL. If LMU keys on 1-2 of our hitters they will shut them down. so we are going to need other hitters to step up this match. We have the talent to do that -- its just young so it will be tested. And Jane has to play really well so she sends the ball to the open hitter. UD coming back as I type this -- 10-9 LMU.
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09-16-2016, 07:15 PM
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Camera folks need to show more of the match and not stay so long with the close ups of the players. Watching points get scored but not following how the plays developed. Hope they get back to normal filming soon.
LMU looks like a solid hitting team and very good ball-handling (passing/digging). Should be a great challenge tonight.
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09-16-2016, 07:19 PM
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TO UD. LMU up 17-14.
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09-16-2016, 07:22 PM
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UD 2nd TO down 15-20. Both of these TOs were well taken.
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09-16-2016, 07:27 PM
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I don't know if we are going to win this set, but dang do we fight. We were down 22-16 and had only 2 blocks (which doesn't get it done against good teams) and they were hitting over .500. We hadn't stopped them all set.
It's now 23-20 and they just called a TO. Both teams hitting about the same -- high .300s
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09-16-2016, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by UDVBFan
Camera folks need to show more of the match and not stay so long with the close ups of the players. Watching points get scored but not following how the plays developed. Hope they get back to normal filming soon.
LMU looks like a solid hitting team and very good ball-handling (passing/digging). Should be a great challenge tonight.
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Agree camera work is very poor. Staying in the replay while live action is going on. These are not students this is Time Warner. You can tell they don't have a lot of experience covering live volleyball.
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09-16-2016, 07:32 PM
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UD service error ends it with LMU taking the set 25-21. Our last 2 points were kills by freshman Peterson -- big time points by a freshman with our backs to the wall.
Need to rebound and tie it up going into intermission. I will say that I think the team has played better beginning in the 2nd set most of the year. The impression I have gotten is they seem to figure out what the other team is doing by the 2nd set and make adjustments to beat it. Gonna need some of that tonight. We did out-score them 5-3 for the last 8 points.
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09-16-2016, 07:35 PM
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so much for that last post. TO UD down 0-5 in the second.
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09-16-2016, 07:37 PM
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When you have a bad start serve receiving it is really tough to turn it around, been there done that. The offense has to be efficient against lmu and they have to serve well to slow them down
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09-16-2016, 07:50 PM
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TO UD down 18-13. Will take a huge effort to pull this set out. Go Flyers!
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09-16-2016, 07:52 PM
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TO LMU. UD fighting back -- behind 18-16. Stats show we just subbed Pittman for Jane. That means someone else playing back row will be setting. Stats might be wrong -- have to watch coming out of TO.
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09-16-2016, 07:59 PM
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TO LMU -- UD on a 10-5 run to even it up 23-23. Margo just served an ace to tie it up. GO FLYERS!!!!
I do hate to report that of those 5 LMU points -- 2 of them were service errors on our part. I know fans hate that.
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09-16-2016, 08:03 PM
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Tied it at 23 and then LMU got the final two points to win set 2. The first time UD lost set 2 this year. They have to raise their play in all aspects. Need to serve really well and pass better. LMU is serving really well making it tough
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09-16-2016, 08:03 PM
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Like Adrianne said there is a time to be aggressive and a time to be smart. Gotta keep the ball in the court that late in the set.
This will be the real test now, how will they respond. They responded well in the set but then too many errors.
Second match in a row for Sloan not having her best nights. Teams are taking her out of her game.
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09-16-2016, 08:04 PM
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Dang! LMU takes the 2nd 25-23. So close.
We had 4 blocks that set -- which is encouraging. We gave them a 6-0 lead to start and couldn't close the gap -- but out played them at the end. Need to start off fast in the 3rd. We will find out what this team is made of for sure. 0-2 hole to dig out of against a team that was in the Top 25 the first 3 polls of the year, so the coaches thought they were going to be good.
We have had trouble in serve receive. It's a little hard to tell how much trouble because the camera work has been so bad and a lot of times there is a graphic over the court so you can't see at all. LMU aced Margo -- and that is hard to do. Plus I've seen a ton of overpasses.
Team needs to settle down and get it done.
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09-16-2016, 08:06 PM
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Hope the camera people catch on we'd rather see live action than there replays. Play replays during time outs not live action. And follow the ball don't get stuck on one players. These are professionals....supposedly.
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09-16-2016, 08:07 PM
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On the positive side LMU's hiting percentage has gone down dramatically since earlier in the match
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09-16-2016, 08:10 PM
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They have 73 attacks and we have 63. Thats a big difference and shows we aren't getting passes to the setter enough. I think it's the first time we have taken less swings than our opponent all year. Most matches we dominate this stat.Both teams hitting in the low 300s for the match. Thats very good, but also shows neither team is stopping the other. LMU is up +4 in digs and we have 6 blocks to their 5. It's very good we are getting after the block. We are going to need more of that to beat this team.
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09-16-2016, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian
On the positive side LMU's hiting percentage has gone down dramatically since earlier in the match
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Believe Dayton has figured them out, now if we'd stop giving them points we could win this thing.
Did I hear right, LMU has 7 freshmen on their team.
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09-16-2016, 08:20 PM
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TO LMU with Dayton up 9-3. Just got a block from Jane-Amber. We are looking better. Keep it rolling.
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09-16-2016, 08:39 PM
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LMU goes on 4-5 point run to close out 3rd set and win the match 3-0. We are 11-1 and this match will help a young team.
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09-16-2016, 08:40 PM
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Two dropped balls was the turning point. They never recovered. As Adrianne said, that is unacceptable. Need a floor or court leader.
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09-16-2016, 08:47 PM
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Certainly didn't expect that. LMU only hit .167 in the third set but UD hit .114 in that set.
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09-16-2016, 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA
LMU goes on 4-5 point run to close out 3rd set and win the match 3-0. We are 11-1 and this match will help a young team.
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Good Point They have played many inconsistent sets and come back late to win them. This loss can really teach them the importance of consistency. If it weren't for slow starts they easily could have won the first two sets. The third set was the opposite, fast start but failed to keep their momentum
LMU is a good team
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09-16-2016, 09:28 PM
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Now we have to respond and bounce back tomorrow. We need to bury YSU in dominate fashion. That's all anyone needs to be thinking about.
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09-16-2016, 09:44 PM
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Our serve receive was really bad in the first set and only got a tad better in sets 2 and 3. Sloan had a dreadful match. Had to be pulled in the first set. LMU was serving right at her and she could not handle it. She started second set, but did not play well. Got pulled early in set 2, never to return. Albarran stepped in for her.
Thought we had a chance in set 3. However, LMU climbed back in and aced us on match point. LMU had no problem with our serving all night. Thought the LMU setter did a good job of disguising where she was setting very well.
Hopefully, this will allow the coaching staff to get their attention a bit. I know we are young, but we need to see improvement.
Last edited by ud69; 09-16-2016 at 09:47 PM..
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09-16-2016, 09:46 PM
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My observation: we were outplayed by LMU and made more mistakes than we could cover. LMU deserved to win, they made the shots when it counted. Not sure what happened, LMU played too well or we just didn't have it tonight. Like all I am hoping for a better outcome tomorrow, but we need to play much better for that to happen.
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09-16-2016, 10:49 PM
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We definitely had serve receive problems. Margo got aced and that's hard to do. Jess struggled and got aced twice and when Jordan replaced her she got aced three times. And it was not just the aces, but a lot of bad passing and overpasses off of serve receive. It's the hardest thing to do in volleyball. Take the serve and pass it to the setter so she has three hitter options. We didn't do it well at all tonight. LMU's serves gave us fits.
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09-17-2016, 08:18 AM
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My opinion is based on watching this match on the computer so I would like an opinion from someone at the match.
Adrienne kept saying that LMU was serving aggressively. I think that we saw serves in this match which we haven't seen all season and it wasn't just one player. They seemed to be hitting the ball really hard and low over the net. When you hit a jump floater that hard you don't have much time to react and it also moves more.
Once you get in a bad funk returning serve it is reallllllyyyy difficult to reset yourself and get back under control.
We have some good servers but don't seem to hit the ball as hard with great placement as LMU. They were pounding the serve but they were also making the serve receivers move a lot, not a good thing
As the match went on our serving bothered them a lot too, just not quite enough to win a set.
This is only based upon viewing from a computer screen
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09-17-2016, 08:58 AM
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Flyer Volleyball Superfan. Almost 8,000 Posts To Prove It.
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I should also mention we had a 13 home match win streak from last year plus 3 this year for a 16 match win streak snapped last night. Looking to start a new one today. Go Flyets
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09-17-2016, 12:06 PM
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LMM sweeps SoILL. LMM was ranked 21-20-25 before RVs this week. They played 4 freshmen against us, so those early losses might have been some learning curve with a young team. I hope we play them again in the next 3 years. Both teams are very young and talented and it would be a great match up for both programs that should be very, very good as these freshmen develop.
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09-17-2016, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA
LMM sweeps SoILL. LMM was ranked 21-20-25 before RVs this week. They played 4 freshmen against us, so those early losses might have been some learning curve with a young team. I hope we play them again in the next 3 years. Both teams are very young and talented and it would be a great match up for both programs that should be very, very good as these freshmen develop.
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Jody - thanks for the tix . .
Serve receive was the difference in this match - all else was equal.
Learn and move on . . .
___________________
Darkness deserves gratitude. It is the alleluia point at which we learn to understand that all growth does not take place in the sunlight.
- Sister Joan Chittister
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3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Glen Clark For This Totally Excellent Post:
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09-18-2016, 07:44 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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My in-person viewpoint was that LMU was able to hit the open spots in our dig area. They just seemed to find a way around our block alot. And were able to plug the holes around their own blocks so we couldn't find an open spot. We never seemed to be able to get into any runs.
So close, yet, so far.
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Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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09-19-2016, 08:36 AM
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Flyer Volleyball Superfan. Almost 8,000 Posts To Prove It.
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
My in-person viewpoint was that LMU was able to hit the open spots in our dig area. They just seemed to find a way around our block alot. And were able to plug the holes around their own blocks so we couldn't find an open spot. We never seemed to be able to get into any runs.
So close, yet, so far.
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I believe you are correct on the runs. I was watching on the computer and the camera work was not good so I also had the live stats up and it clearly showed that at the end of that 3 Rd set they would ring up 3-4 points at a time and we would serve one and done.
I was interested to look at our wideout numbers but there are two different box score sheets and we seem to only have the one I don't like for this reason and others - no side out stat released that I can find on any links. But I would bet ours was below our norm in this match.
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