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  #1  
Old 11-17-2017, 04:09 PM
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Kenpom Observations after 2 Games

Some observations from kenpom statistics after 2 Games. Yes early and yes not totally pure stats yet.

Offense
Ranked #136
Positives
(1) lack of turnovers ranking #27 in the country only turning it over 13% of possessions. Helps with possessions massively.
(2) 55.6% FG % from 2
(3) 73% FT
Negatives =
(1) only getting offensive rebounds in 20% of possessions ranking #308 in the country. Possessions are key and this is terrible. Unless shooting lights-out, will not win without offensive rebounds. This must be addressed to be successful this year.
(2) 26% from 3 for #288 in the country.
(3) Not getting to the line ranking #232.

Defense
Ranked #94
Positives
(1) Opponents only getting offensive rebounds on 23% of possessions ranking #69.
(2) blocking 10% of shots ranking #144.
(3) not giving up a ton of fou; shots ranking #68 (Ball St Dayton great, opposite for Hofstra).
(4) Opponents effective field goal % 49% ranking 149 — this is really neutral.
Negative
(1) Creating almost zero turnovers, 14% of possessions ranking #310.

Bottom-lime, need to improve 2 things.

First, crash the offensive boards to get more possessions. Going from 20% to 30% offensive boards and Dayton would score about 7 points more per game. I like the Josh, Kostas, X line-up with all 3 crashing and the guards getting back.

Second, turn up the heat on defense. Dayton needs to cause more turnovers thereby limiting opponents shots. Would like to see more ball pressure and a full court press. Dayton has the athletes.

Wrote at 35000 feet on my mobile so sorry for typos.

Last edited by ruechalgrin; 11-17-2017 at 04:23 PM..
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  #2  
Old 11-17-2017, 04:17 PM
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The offensive rebounding philosophy was offensive. As soon as the Dayton shot went up 5 Flyers ran for the other end (with an occasional Trey Landers pursuit). We not only gave up the rebound, we also bailed on the loose balls.

I hope Kostas set the example for loose balls. We need bodies hitting the floor.
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Old 11-17-2017, 04:27 PM
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The offense we often run is 4 or 5 guys away from the lane, that leaves no one in position to rebound, even when they do crash.
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Old 11-17-2017, 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
The offense we often run is 4 or 5 guys away from the lane, that leaves no one in position to rebound, even when they do crash.
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I wonder if AG has changed his offense from Bama and VCU to Dayton. Lowest year of offensive rebounds was 2015 at 29.6% for #223 in the country. Best was 2011 at 35.5% for #29 in the country. Each 1% increase in offensive rebounds yields about an additional .75 points a game so small improvements matter. 20% through two games is admittedly a small sample size but is downright atrocious!
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Old 11-17-2017, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Some observations from kenpom statistics after 2 Games. Yes early and yes not totally pure stats yet.

Offense
Ranked #136
Positives
(1) lack of turnovers ranking #27 in the country only turning it over 13% of possessions. Helps with possessions massively.
(2) 55.6% FG % from 2
(3) 73% FT
Negatives =
(1) only getting offensive rebounds in 20% of possessions ranking #308 in the country. Possessions are key and this is terrible. Unless shooting lights-out, will not win without offensive rebounds. This must be addressed to be successful this year.
(2) 26% from 3 for #288 in the country.
(3) Not getting to the line ranking #232.

Defense
Ranked #94
Positives
(1) Opponents only getting offensive rebounds on 23% of possessions ranking #69.
(2) blocking 10% of shots ranking #144.
(3) not giving up a ton of fou; shots ranking #68 (Ball St Dayton great, opposite for Hofstra).
(4) Opponents effective field goal % 49% ranking 149 — this is really neutral.
Negative
(1) Creating almost zero turnovers, 14% of possessions ranking #310.

Bottom-lime, need to improve 2 things.

First, crash the offensive boards to get more possessions. Going from 20% to 30% offensive boards and Dayton would score about 7 points more per game. I like the Josh, Kostas, X line-up with all 3 crashing and the guards getting back.

Second, turn up the heat on defense. Dayton needs to cause more turnovers thereby limiting opponents shots. Would like to see more ball pressure and a full court press. Dayton has the athletes.

Wrote at 35000 feet on my mobile so sorry for typos.
Well done sir. Great analysis as always.

However, it is hard to use these numbers with just two games. Not a great sample size.
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Old 11-17-2017, 09:05 PM
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That’s not a small sample, it’s an invalid sample.
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Old 11-17-2017, 09:34 PM
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Agree two games sample size is very small. Kenpom uses players’ stats from prior year decreasing relevance until late December or early January when no longer used. This has proven to be very accurate even with preseason predictions/rankings.

Despite small sample size, can give some insights like need more offensive rebounds. Big difference versus Ohio was that Dayton had over 30% possession offensive rebounds (when had miss).
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