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  #1  
Old 03-10-2014, 12:48 PM
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Figgie123 Figgie123 is offline
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A10 Tournament Projections

Okay, I stole the method from kenpom, and he will get his updated soon enough for the A10, but this will be darn close. I took kenpom's pyth value for all A10 teams, and ran the log5 calculations for the A10.

Code:

        Openng   First    Qtrs   Semis   Final
 1: STL 100.00  100.00   71.89   44.57   21.52  
 2: VCU 100.00  100.00   81.87   54.71   36.59  
 3: GWU 100.00  100.00   58.71   24.62   13.07  
 4: STJ 100.00  100.00   52.89   23.46    8.63  
 5: DAY 100.00   76.75   40.85   19.37    7.70  
 6: MAS 100.00   69.12   32.52   12.78    6.42  
 7: RIC 100.00   61.62   12.76    4.46    1.57  
 8: LAS 100.00   44.98   11.64    4.27    1.08  
 9: STB 100.00   55.02   16.46    6.81    1.99  
10: DUQ 100.00   38.38    5.37    1.35    0.35  
11: URI 100.00   30.88    8.77    2.07    0.65  
12: GMU  66.64   18.03    5.35    1.38    0.28  
13: FOR  33.36    5.22    0.91    0.14    0.02  
I then took just the overall winning percentages, and got the following with the log5 projection:
Code:

        Openng   First    Qtrs   Semis   Final
 1: STL 100.00  100.00   82.82   56.71   34.83  
 2: VCU 100.00  100.00   75.04   39.13   19.38  
 3: GWU 100.00  100.00   55.87   30.72   14.90  
 4: STJ 100.00  100.00   54.58   20.88    8.95  
 5: DAY 100.00   82.43   42.17   16.56    7.29  
 6: MAS 100.00   81.13   40.56   22.30   10.82  
 7: RIC 100.00   64.86   18.65    5.76    1.68  
 8: LAS 100.00   48.28    8.05    2.47    0.61  
 9: STB 100.00   51.72    9.13    2.94    0.76  
10: DUQ 100.00   35.14    6.31    1.24    0.23  
11: URI 100.00   18.87    3.56    0.84    0.16  
12: GMU  56.27   10.78    2.14    0.32    0.05  
13: FOR  43.73    6.80    1.10    0.13    0.02  
I then took A10 only record, and ran those through log5:
Code:

        Openng   First    Qtrs   Semis   Final
 1: STL 100.00  100.00   86.11   59.39   38.52  
 2: VCU 100.00  100.00   78.70   48.00   23.69  
 3: GWU 100.00  100.00   62.46   30.31   12.74  
 4: STJ 100.00  100.00   61.27   24.20   11.81  
 5: DAY 100.00   85.96   37.05   12.48    5.25  
 6: MAS 100.00   78.57   33.87   14.25    5.10  
 7: RIC 100.00   68.75   17.19    5.97    1.52  
 8: LAS 100.00   56.45    8.59    2.49    0.64  
 9: STB 100.00   43.55    5.30    1.27    0.27  
10: DUQ 100.00   31.25    4.11    0.81    0.11  
11: URI 100.00   21.43    3.67    0.65    0.09  
12: GMU  70.00   11.67    1.54    0.16    0.02  
13: FOR  30.00    2.37    0.14    0.01    0.00  
For comparisons, here is the SWAC log5, using kenpom's pyth, to show how close I am to him. Here is the link to kenpom's SWAC log5 projection.
Code:

                          First    Qtrs   Semis   Final
 1: Southern             100.00   88.61   71.10   51.27  
 2: Texas Southern       100.00   69.00   46.17   20.93  
 3: Alabama St           100.00   54.98   22.12    7.17  
 4: Pine Bluff           100.00   47.90   11.62    4.51  
 5: Alabama A&M          100.00   52.10   13.32    5.43  
 6: Alcorn St            100.00   45.02   16.10    4.61  
 7: Jackson St            79.83   28.52   15.10    4.98  
 8: Prairie View          53.56    6.46    2.31    0.63  
 9: Mississippi Valley    46.44    4.93    1.61    0.39  
10: Grambling St          20.17    2.48    0.55    0.07  
What does any of this mean? Nothing. Just go win your games.

Figgie
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  #2  
Old 03-10-2014, 12:56 PM
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rollo rollo is offline
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Cease and desist....please!

Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
What does any of this mean?
It means I'll be taking a 3rd advil for the 4th time in 5 days over 2 weeks...
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