Okay, I stole the method from kenpom, and he will get his updated soon enough for the A10, but this will be darn close. I took kenpom's pyth value for all A10 teams, and ran the log5 calculations for the A10.
Code:
Openng First Qtrs Semis Final
1: STL 100.00 100.00 71.89 44.57 21.52
2: VCU 100.00 100.00 81.87 54.71 36.59
3: GWU 100.00 100.00 58.71 24.62 13.07
4: STJ 100.00 100.00 52.89 23.46 8.63
5: DAY 100.00 76.75 40.85 19.37 7.70
6: MAS 100.00 69.12 32.52 12.78 6.42
7: RIC 100.00 61.62 12.76 4.46 1.57
8: LAS 100.00 44.98 11.64 4.27 1.08
9: STB 100.00 55.02 16.46 6.81 1.99
10: DUQ 100.00 38.38 5.37 1.35 0.35
11: URI 100.00 30.88 8.77 2.07 0.65
12: GMU 66.64 18.03 5.35 1.38 0.28
13: FOR 33.36 5.22 0.91 0.14 0.02
I then took just the overall winning percentages, and got the following with the log5 projection:
Code:
Openng First Qtrs Semis Final
1: STL 100.00 100.00 82.82 56.71 34.83
2: VCU 100.00 100.00 75.04 39.13 19.38
3: GWU 100.00 100.00 55.87 30.72 14.90
4: STJ 100.00 100.00 54.58 20.88 8.95
5: DAY 100.00 82.43 42.17 16.56 7.29
6: MAS 100.00 81.13 40.56 22.30 10.82
7: RIC 100.00 64.86 18.65 5.76 1.68
8: LAS 100.00 48.28 8.05 2.47 0.61
9: STB 100.00 51.72 9.13 2.94 0.76
10: DUQ 100.00 35.14 6.31 1.24 0.23
11: URI 100.00 18.87 3.56 0.84 0.16
12: GMU 56.27 10.78 2.14 0.32 0.05
13: FOR 43.73 6.80 1.10 0.13 0.02
I then took A10 only record, and ran those through log5:
Code:
Openng First Qtrs Semis Final
1: STL 100.00 100.00 86.11 59.39 38.52
2: VCU 100.00 100.00 78.70 48.00 23.69
3: GWU 100.00 100.00 62.46 30.31 12.74
4: STJ 100.00 100.00 61.27 24.20 11.81
5: DAY 100.00 85.96 37.05 12.48 5.25
6: MAS 100.00 78.57 33.87 14.25 5.10
7: RIC 100.00 68.75 17.19 5.97 1.52
8: LAS 100.00 56.45 8.59 2.49 0.64
9: STB 100.00 43.55 5.30 1.27 0.27
10: DUQ 100.00 31.25 4.11 0.81 0.11
11: URI 100.00 21.43 3.67 0.65 0.09
12: GMU 70.00 11.67 1.54 0.16 0.02
13: FOR 30.00 2.37 0.14 0.01 0.00
For comparisons, here is the SWAC log5, using kenpom's pyth, to show how close I am to him. Here is the link to
kenpom's SWAC log5 projection.
Code:
First Qtrs Semis Final
1: Southern 100.00 88.61 71.10 51.27
2: Texas Southern 100.00 69.00 46.17 20.93
3: Alabama St 100.00 54.98 22.12 7.17
4: Pine Bluff 100.00 47.90 11.62 4.51
5: Alabama A&M 100.00 52.10 13.32 5.43
6: Alcorn St 100.00 45.02 16.10 4.61
7: Jackson St 79.83 28.52 15.10 4.98
8: Prairie View 53.56 6.46 2.31 0.63
9: Mississippi Valley 46.44 4.93 1.61 0.39
10: Grambling St 20.17 2.48 0.55 0.07
What does any of this mean? Nothing. Just go win your games.
Figgie