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12-06-2016, 09:29 PM
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Free Throw Shooting
I assume such a stat exists but I would have no clue how to find it. In addition to only making about 2/3 of their attempted foul shots this year, I wonder what percentage of FT opportunities the Flyers have had (1/1 or 2) that they actually converted both shots. I would guess the percentage is not very high. These guys simply can't very often hit two free throws in a row.
Given that their two losses this year have been by two and four points, no doubt better foul shooting could have changed both of those games to wins. Further, there is no doubt that kind of foul shooting will cost them a few more games this year and you would hope it won't be to the likes of SLU, Fordham, Duquesne, etc.
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12-07-2016, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Sid Louick
I assume such a stat exists but I would have no clue how to find it. In addition to only making about 2/3 of their attempted foul shots this year, I wonder what percentage of FT opportunities the Flyers have had (1/1 or 2) that they actually converted both shots. I would guess the percentage is not very high. These guys simply can't very often hit two free throws in a row.
Given that their two losses this year have been by two and four points, no doubt better foul shooting could have changed both of those games to wins. Further, there is no doubt that kind of foul shooting will cost them a few more games this year and you would hope it won't be to the likes of SLU, Fordham, Duquesne, etc.
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No doubt FT's have been a problem. Probably in terms of extending leads moreso than costing us games at this point. We were 19-24 vs St Mary's (79%) and although 20-28 vs Nebraska hit a better pct than the Huskers (71% vs 66%). With a few exceptions FT shooting is poor across college BB.
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12-07-2016, 08:47 AM
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More college basketball players should swallow their pride and follow Rick Barry and start shooting ft's under-handed.
RB shot 89% from the line during his NBA and ABA career using the under-handed form.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...nd-free-throws
“If you're shooting 80 percent or better, great," Barry told Kevin Fixler of the Post Game in 2013. "If you can't shoot 80 percent, you're not a good free-throw shooter, that simple. If you can't shoot in the mid-70s, you need to think seriously about it. If you're a 60 percent, 50 percent free-throw shooter, by God, you should try anything.”
Last edited by ud2; 12-07-2016 at 08:50 AM..
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12-07-2016, 08:50 AM
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Good shooters tend to shoot high percentages from the line. UD has some streaky shooters but no one I would currently call a good shooter.
The ability to convert free throws has gone the way of the midrange game. Everything is at the rim or beyond the arc. 67% is fast becoming the norm.
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12-07-2016, 09:31 AM
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The norm actually feels like players are content to "settle" on making one out of two. They concentrate a bit better in the last 3-5 minutes of the game and collectively end up averaging in the mid-60's, but it's almost by accident. Lack of focus.
It's a bit like mediocre amateur tennis. The first serve is a throwaway, but the second serve is needed to get the point going. Net effect is lousy first serve %.
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12-07-2016, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar
With a few exceptions FT shooting is poor across college BB.
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I know the is perception FT shooting has gotten worse of the years, but the reality is that FT% in college basketball has remained virtually the same in college basketball for the last 5+ decades. Here is a quote from a 2014 NY Times article on the subject:
"In college, free-throw rates have hovered between 67 and 70 percent since 1960...The pros have fared slightly better, usually ranging between 73 and 77 percent since 1955"
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2...-march-madness
Maybe someone can find the year-by-year data, but I did a quick google search and could not find it.
KenPom has 16 years of data and overall FT% is actually up (69.4% v. 69.1%) in the 8 most recent seasons (2010-present) versus the eight seasons before that.
You can argue if these percentages are "poor" or not, but the belief that FT% has gotten worse in recent years is not true.
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12-07-2016, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
I know the is perception FT shooting has gotten worse of the years, but the reality is that FT% in college basketball has remained virtually the same in college basketball for the last 5+ decades. Here is a quote from a 2014 NY Times article on the subject:
"In college, free-throw rates have hovered between 67 and 70 percent since 1960...The pros have fared slightly better, usually ranging between 73 and 77 percent since 1955"
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2...-march-madness
Maybe someone can find the year-by-year data, but I did a quick google search and could not find it.
KenPom has 16 years of data and overall FT% is actually up (69.4% v. 69.1%) in the 8 most recent seasons (2010-present) versus the eight seasons before that.
You can argue if these percentages are "poor" or not, but the belief that FT% has gotten worse in recent years is not true.
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Interesting. It seems we always remember the 90+% ft shooters and since we can all do the same in our driveway, we think everyone playing D1 should be at least 80+%.
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12-07-2016, 11:53 AM
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FT shooting is "mind
over matter".
Confidence.
Repetition.
It is so much different then
shots from the floor which
are basically reaction
movements. At the line
it us just you. No defender to
Blame. No teammate to Blame.
As good of athletes that we have today I think it's terrible to "settle",
consider 70% as normal , acceptable or good. At 72 I can make 70% for
gosh sake.......after making 80%
3 HS var seasons....85% as a Jr.
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12-07-2016, 11:58 AM
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Irony
Originally Posted by Sid Louick
Given that their two losses this year have been by two and four points, no doubt better foul shooting could have changed both of those games to wins.
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It is cruel irony that our 2 losses were also our 2 best free throw percentage games.
SM = .792 (19-24)
Neb = .714 (20-28)
And we outscored both of those teams from the line.
Our 3rd best game was Portland (.706 12-17) where we won by 10, but were outscored from the line (.958 23-24).
Ryan Mikesell shooting only .636 (14-22) is baffling.
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12-07-2016, 12:07 PM
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Cell Phones Computers and Electronic Games
produce poor foul shooters. Welcome to the Brave New World.
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12-07-2016, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse
produce poor foul shooters. Welcome to the Brave New World.
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That's on the programmers.
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12-07-2016, 12:42 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by DallasFlyer
That's on the programmers.
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Watch it, buddy!
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12-07-2016, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
I know the is perception FT shooting has gotten worse of the years, but the reality is that FT% in college basketball has remained virtually the same in college basketball for the last 5+ decades. Here is a quote from a 2014 NY Times article on the subject:
"In college, free-throw rates have hovered between 67 and 70 percent since 1960...The pros have fared slightly better, usually ranging between 73 and 77 percent since 1955"
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2...-march-madness
Maybe someone can find the year-by-year data, but I did a quick google search and could not find it.
KenPom has 16 years of data and overall FT% is actually up (69.4% v. 69.1%) in the 8 most recent seasons (2010-present) versus the eight seasons before that.
You can argue if these percentages are "poor" or not, but the belief that FT% has gotten worse in recent years is not true.
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Watch yourself, you don't want to let these facts get in the way of everyone's narratives regarding free throws.
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12-07-2016, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Sid Louick
I assume such a stat exists but I would have no clue how to find it. In addition to only making about 2/3 of their attempted foul shots this year, I wonder what percentage of FT opportunities the Flyers have had (1/1 or 2) that they actually converted both shots. I would guess the percentage is not very high. These guys simply can't very often hit two free throws in a row.
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I don't think you really need "a stat" I think you need to "use stats." If the FT's were independent draws the math would be pretty easy, but, I would be willing to bet that there's a slight advantage to the 2nd FT gained from sizing up the first one. That's probably been accounted for in a formula somewhere. Or maybe that's already accounted for in the average make %--some math wiz out there will know.
But even lacking that I would say that you could get pretty close just by assuming that each FT is an independent draw, so the odds of making 2 in a row is something like (FT%) * (FT%). So a 75% FT shooter would expect to make 2 in a row 56% of the time. A 65% shooter would make both about 42% of the time. If it seems like it happens less than half the time. . . well I think you would be correct.
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12-07-2016, 02:18 PM
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There are #s and there are fan perceptions.
Went to see UD play in St. Louis. Brian Roberts was going to the free throw line a lot. After making his n_th FT, a St. Louis fan bemoaned that "that guy doesn't miss". I turned and said "he's missed 2 today" (probably thinking that was a lot!). We could use BRob's 85% FT shooting today.
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12-07-2016, 02:47 PM
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I found this on a blog post from kenpom.com titled "The Annual Shooting-is-better-than-ever Post" from 11/22 of this year:
"After an awesome weekend from the free-throw line, the national average for free throw percentage rose to 69.78% in games involving two D-I teams. The season-long record was set…last season at 69.96%. But shooting numbers always improve as the season progresses, so that figure will get shattered by season’s end. For instance, through 11 days of basketball action last season, the average was 68.47%. Once players shake the rust off, it’s almost certain this will be the first season since Naismith was dealing with unruly kids at the Springfield YMCA that players collectively shoot better than 70% from the line."
So according to KenPom, last year was the best FT% in NCAA history and this year is on pace to be even better. Sorry to ruin the narrative that modern players only practice dunks and can't shoot free throws like players "back in the day".
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12-07-2016, 03:06 PM
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I'm not concerned about the national average.
Just that of the Flyers.
If the national average is 69.78% that means some teams are shooting around 90% to
make up for those that shoot closer to 50%.
I'd prefer our-team to be closer to 90%.
Go Flyers!
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12-07-2016, 03:39 PM
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Colonel
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I like ND and SMC %
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12-07-2016, 03:42 PM
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Maybe I missed someone, but there are only 2 top25 teams in the top25 of free throws. And five teams in the top50. The correlation to winning may be low.
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12-07-2016, 03:42 PM
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I don like Charleston So and NC A&T
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12-07-2016, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66
I'm not concerned about the national average.
Just that of the Flyers.
If the national average is 69.78% that means some teams are shooting around 90% to
make up for those that shoot closer to 50%.
I'd prefer our-team to be closer to 90%.
Go Flyers!
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I think maybe the reason we think FT shooting percentage has gone down is because lot's of us, including myself, were spoiled by the Don Donoher Flyers where it seemed almost every player shot between 75 to 90 percent. I really don't think players like to put the time in anymore and I can't understand that. You'd think that most players would take pride in their scoring average and FT shooting make a big difference in that stat.
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12-07-2016, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
I think maybe the reason we think FT shooting percentage has gone down is because lot's of us, including myself, were spoiled by the Don Donoher Flyers where it seemed almost every player shot between 75 to 90 percent. I really don't think players like to put the time in anymore and I can't understand that. You'd think that most players would take pride in their scoring average and FT shooting make a big difference in that stat.
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This data is going to come as a disappointment to those that remember the Donoher teams as so much better FT shooters than Miller's teams.
From this year's media guide, FT% by coach:
Blackburn (15 seasons): 64.4%
Donoher (25): 70.7%
O'Brien (5): 67.4%
Purnell (9): 69.4%
Gregory (8): 67.0%
Miller (5): 70.6%
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12-07-2016, 08:30 PM
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Regardless what the national stats are, the Flyers always seem to run into a team with a little guard who seldom misses a FT and seems to be at the line all night.
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12-07-2016, 10:27 PM
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Guys will miss...the ones that get me are the front ends that turn a possible positive possession into a virtual turnover.
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12-07-2016, 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill202
There are #s and there are fan perceptions.
Went to see UD play in St. Louis. Brian Roberts was going to the free throw line a lot. After making his n_th FT, a St. Louis fan bemoaned that "that guy doesn't miss". I turned and said "he's missed 2 today" (probably thinking that was a lot!). We could use BRob's 85% FT shooting today.
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Brian led the NBA in FT % in 2013-14 when he was in NOLA.
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12-08-2016, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Sid Louick
Regardless what the national stats are, the Flyers always seem to run into a team with a little guard who seldom misses a FT and seems to be at the line all night.
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I agree. We have run into 3 of them already this year. But they have one thing in common other than they are short and virtually unguardable. They are on the losing team that night.
One issue is they become a show unto themselves and the motion stops on the rest of the team while they take a ton of shots. The are also a bit of a defensive liability.
To your point though, the 3 short guards made 25/26 free throws, and played 117/120 minutes of action. They rarely came off the floor and shot a lot of free throws at a 96% clip.
Last edited by San Diego Flyer; 12-08-2016 at 09:37 AM..
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12-08-2016, 11:32 AM
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Free throw percentage is not as important as free throw rate. Getting to the foul line is a more important skill for winning basketball games. I would expect Dayton's rate to increase with Pollard back and getting closer to 100%.
While SMC is one of the best at making FT (80%) they are only shooting about 13 per game. I'd rather be the team making 65% from the line and getting there 20.
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12-08-2016, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
This data is going to come as a disappointment to those that remember the Donoher teams as so much better FT shooters than Miller's teams.
From this year's media guide, FT% by coach:
Blackburn (15 seasons): 64.4%
Donoher (25): 70.7%
O'Brien (5): 67.4%
Purnell (9): 69.4%
Gregory (8): 67.0%
Miller (5): 70.6%
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This is shocking to me. I will say this though, Donoher's teams shot a lot more I'm sure because the rules had you shooting a FT after every foul whether it was in the act of shooting or not and whether you had 7 or not. I just don't remember Donoher's teams having many under 70 percent shooters. So yes I'm shocked.
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12-08-2016, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
This is shocking to me. I will say this though, Donoher's teams shot a lot more I'm sure because the rules had you shooting a FT after every foul whether it was in the act of shooting or not and whether you had 7 or not.
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Donoher: 15597 attempts in 712 games = 21.9 attempts per game
Miller: 3861 attempts in 178 games = 21.7 attempts per game
I'm not sure 0.2 attempts per game is "a lot more", but yes, Donoher teams did have more FTAs per game.
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12-08-2016, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
Donoher: 15597 attempts in 712 games = 21.9 attempts per game
Miller: 3861 attempts in 178 games = 21.7 attempts per game
I'm not sure 0.2 attempts per game is "a lot more", but yes, Donoher teams did have more FTAs per game.
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After spending 7 hours trying to verify your statistics on free throws during Micky and Archie tenures, I agreed "eh they were about the same!"
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12-08-2016, 07:00 PM
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So if I did my math right, the Flyers under DD scored an average of 15.48 pts/game and the Miller Flyers are scoring 15.32 pts/game. DD is outdoing AM by a whopping 0.16 pts/gm. Looks like a wash to me.
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12-08-2016, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
So if I did my math right, the Flyers under DD scored an average of 15.48 pts/game and the Miller Flyers are scoring 15.32 pts/game. DD is outdoing AM by a whopping 0.16 pts/gm. Looks like a wash to me.
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Well, I'm not going to make anymore predictions from just what it seemed like to me. However, you have to take rule changes into consideration. At first I thought that maybe the fact they shot FTs on every foul in Donoher's days would mean that they shot a lot more. However, offsetting that has to be the shot clock which didn't exist in Donoher's day meaning less possessions.
Maybe the issue is consistency(just guessing). Seems the Flyers nowadays go from one extreme to the other in FT shooting from game to game and maybe Donoher's Flyers were more consistent.
I did look it up and of the top FT percentage teams in Flyer history, AM has the top one in 2011-2012 while Donoher had the next 4 so that falls in line with the amount of time each has coached.
I'll also add, since I've probably appear to be pro-Donoher(which is not true, I can't be happier with AM) in this discussion, I can't think of too many times when we can say that FT shooting is what cost us games. Though Pollard himself came close to costing us big at times(Boise St. sticks out).
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12-09-2016, 09:41 AM
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Also offsetting was the fact there was no double bonus during Donoher's tenure. Everything was 1 and 1 at the end of the game.
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12-09-2016, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Also offsetting was the fact there was no double bonus during Donoher's tenure. Everything was 1 and 1 at the end of the game.
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Good thing too, or this probably wouldn't have happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmMpu3l4DVs
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12-09-2016, 05:26 PM
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General
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UD has pulled off the miracle. It's pandamonium. There's a special on wheat bread at Kroger this week.
How much valium did that guy take before the game??
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12-09-2016, 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
UD has pulled off the miracle. It's pandamonium. There's a special on wheat bread at Kroger this week.
How much valium did that guy take before the game??
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I think that was Tom Hamlin doing a recap(heck, could've been a few years later). The actual play by play was a tad more exciting.
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