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03-12-2013, 09:49 AM
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UD +3.5 vs. Butler
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03-12-2013, 09:58 AM
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Major
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Closer line than I would have thought. Give me the over for total points, if I were a betting man I'd give the points.
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03-12-2013, 10:13 AM
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Major General
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Lower spread than expected. Probably a lot of money going Butler
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03-12-2013, 11:00 AM
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Brigadier General
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Not sure spread is lower than expected based on predictor models
Kenpom 68-67
UD +1
Sagarin 81.57 - 80.57
UD +1
RealtimeRPI - 66-62
UD+4
Massey 70-66
UD+4
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03-12-2013, 02:15 PM
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General
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I have to go with Butler and give away the points. I'm looking at the A10 and referee factor. It's best for the A10 that Butler not get beat in the first round. This is a team that with one or two wins in the tourny will be a lock for the NCAA tourney. While it's in the best interest of the A10 to have a team that's not projected to go win the tourney, I can't see them pushing along a team that's the last seed.
Yes, I've become very skeptical of the Refs and the hidden agendas in these conference tournaments.
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03-12-2013, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
I have to go with Butler and give away the points. I'm looking at the A10 and referee factor. It's best for the A10 that Butler not get beat in the first round. This is a team that with one or two wins in the tourny will be a lock for the NCAA tourney. While it's in the best interest of the A10 to have a team that's not projected to go win the tourney, I can't see them pushing along a team that's the last seed.
Yes, I've become very skeptical of the Refs and the hidden agendas in these conference tournaments.
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Respectfully disagree. Butler's rpi right now is around #21, IMO, Butler is already in the dance regardless of whether they beat UD or not.
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03-12-2013, 02:19 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
This is a team that with one or two wins in the tourny will be a lock for the NCAA tourney.
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Wait, what? You think if Dayton beats Butler, Butler won't make the NCAA Tournament? Butler is in the top 25 of RPI, and a loss to UD will drop them to maybe RPi 35. And being a 'well-known' name in the basketball circles now-a-days, I think they are already in.
Edit: ud2 beat me to it.
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03-12-2013, 02:37 PM
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Butler is a lock. There is not a debate.
As far as A10 is concerned with getting teams in the tournament, it would be better for Dayton to win. Of course, the refs would have to "fix" Dayton's 3 succeeding games as well.
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03-12-2013, 04:14 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by Figgie123
Wait, what? You think if Dayton beats Butler, Butler won't make the NCAA Tournament? Butler is in the top 25 of RPI, and a loss to UD will drop them to maybe RPi 35. And being a 'well-known' name in the basketball circles now-a-days, I think they are already in.
Edit: ud2 beat me to it.
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Okay, you're probably correct that Butler gets in regardless. It still can have a negative effect on the way the selection committee views your conference to have your 3rd seed lock knocked out in the first round by the final seed. It could give the committee an excuse to leave out that 4th or 5th team that they would've taken. I think it's in the A10's best interest to have good showings by their "locks" while having one non-contending at-large team take it all. And I don't think they look as far down as last seed for that that longshot.
I'm not saying Dayton can't be that miracle team, I just don't see them getting favored calls by the refs that other's might get.
Last edited by Smitty10; 03-12-2013 at 04:16 PM..
Reason: addition
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03-12-2013, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Okay, you're probably correct that Butler gets in regardless. It still can have a negative effect on the way the selection committee views your conference to have your 3rd seed lock knocked out in the first round by the final seed. It could give the committee an excuse to leave out that 4th or 5th team that they would've taken. I think it's in the A10's best interest to have good showings by their "locks" while having one non-contending at-large team take it all. And I don't think they look as far down as last seed for that that longshot.
I'm not saying Dayton can't be that miracle team, I just don't see them getting favored calls by the refs that other's might get.
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There are NOT favored calls in these tournaments that a higher seed might get. No matter how bad officiating is in the A10, there's not an agenda to give the close calls toward a certain team in a given game - be it consciously or sub-consciously.
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03-12-2013, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
There are NOT favored calls in these tournaments that a higher seed might get. No matter how bad officiating is in the A10, there's not an agenda to give the close calls toward a certain team in a given game - be it consciously or sub-consciously.
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And you know this how? Especially the "sub-consciously" part? Look, sports in general has show signs of this and I don't think it's a coincidence that the lock teams rarely win the A10 tournament. I'll grant you that a non-lock team has the advantage of motivation, but I can still see close iffy calls going in favor of what's advantagous to the conference. There's a lot of money involved and as this world we live in proves more and more every day, it corrupts integrity.
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03-12-2013, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
And you know this how? Especially the "sub-consciously" part? Look, sports in general has show signs of this and I don't think it's a coincidence that the lock teams rarely win the A10 tournament. I'll grant you that a non-lock team has the advantage of motivation, but I can still see close iffy calls going in favor of what's advantagous to the conference. There's a lot of money involved and as this world we live in proves more and more every day, it corrupts integrity.
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I'll take this one SLUFLYER,
So what do think happens before the tournament starts? The A10 administration gets together with all the refs and let's them know how they want the calls to go? And nobody else knows?
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03-12-2013, 05:33 PM
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Captain
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I would wait for the number to reach 4, but I'm definitely on the Flyers in this spot.
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03-12-2013, 07:26 PM
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People seriously complaining about the officiating before the game has been played? Geez!
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03-12-2013, 07:37 PM
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Colonel
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The problem with conference tournaments is that quite often, particularly when we're talking about conferences that have several teams that are locks, is that the incentive is indeed there for fixing the games so that a non-lock team wins the autobid. I'm not saying that this has ever happened (or that we could ever possibly know about it), but the incentive is definitely there.
Just another reason why I absolutely abhor the use of the small sample size conference tournaments as the means for determining which teams qualify for what is supposed to be the tournament to determine the best team in college basketball. No team with a losing record in conference play should be able to fluke its way into the Dance based on one strong weekend of basketball.
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03-12-2013, 07:49 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by UD90
Not sure spread is lower than expected based on predictor models
Kenpom 68-67
UD +1
Sagarin 81.57 - 80.57
UD +1
RealtimeRPI - 66-62
UD+4
Massey 70-66
UD+4
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Lower than what I expected
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03-12-2013, 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
There are NOT favored calls in these tournaments that a higher seed might get. No matter how bad officiating is in the A10, there's not an agenda to give the close calls toward a certain team in a given game - be it consciously or sub-consciously.
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SLU what you smoking bro..I officiated high school basketball in SW ohio for several years and guess what.......many of our most highly regarded officials here would tell me who was going to win the game before we started the night, I remember one very well known official in the Dayton area bragging at halftime of the Xenia vs Alter game that he had called 3 fouls on that smartmouth Adam Waleskowski kid. I was sure this went on that's why I got into officiating, so I could verify what I always felt was true.
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03-12-2013, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
And you know this how? Especially the "sub-consciously" part? Look, sports in general has show signs of this and I don't think it's a coincidence that the lock teams rarely win the A10 tournament. I'll grant you that a non-lock team has the advantage of motivation, but I can still see close iffy calls going in favor of what's advantagous to the conference. There's a lot of money involved and as this world we live in proves more and more every day, it corrupts integrity.
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Money is the Root of all evil.....there is a quote out there about complacency and the end of democracy...and complacency abounds in this day and age....peeps cant see the truth anymore because they want to believe this old world will just keep keepin on
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03-12-2013, 08:17 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
Lower than what I expected
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Ok - but not Butler money moving the line much.
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03-12-2013, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by bigudfan
People seriously complaining about the officiating before the game has been played? Geez!
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It's easier to say the refs stink than to admit your team does.
The whiners and excuse makers need to read the Women's basketball thread about the St. Joe's loss....it's refreshing to read intelligent thoughts about why the team lost...and there's not one post about UD getting homered by refs anywhere...no talk about the need for 'luck' or 'if' to be found...How'd that happen???
Will the men's page ever evolve to where the women's page currently is...where we admit to weaknesses and look for solutions and make NO excuses???
I doubt it, too.
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
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03-12-2013, 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
It's easier to say the refs stink than to admit your team does.
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Yes, but it's often more accurate to say they both do.
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03-12-2013, 11:06 PM
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Originally Posted by cobra8u
SLU what you smoking bro..I officiated high school basketball in SW ohio for several years and guess what.......many of our most highly regarded officials here would tell me who was going to win the game before we started the night, I remember one very well known official in the Dayton area bragging at halftime of the Xenia vs Alter game that he had called 3 fouls on that smartmouth Adam Waleskowski kid. I was sure this went on that's why I got into officiating, so I could verify what I always felt was true.
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Silly talk
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03-12-2013, 11:15 PM
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I'll put $ 100.00 on each team to win the A10 tournament.
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03-13-2013, 12:27 AM
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Not a bad bet! If SLU or Temple don't win the A10, you are ahead...if you can get down with those odds. Of course there are 6 other teams that you hope don't sneak in.
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