Semi Depressed...

Donniex3Era · #1 10-22-2021, 07:47 PM

All of the magazines and experts have us at no higher than 5th place in conference. That is NOT going to get us to the promised land -- NCAA tourney.
It's a new year, lots of new faces...I get it. Anyone out there more positive?

UD62 · #2 10-22-2021, 08:01 PM

Given our lack of experience, an large number of newcomers, I can see why we are rated where we are. Thankfully the mags and experts don't determine the field. That's up to us. Win enough and we dance, don't win enough and we sit. Probably a whole bunch of fans that are wondering just how good we will be. No real measuring stick to go by. this will be a very interesting year.

TA111 · #3 10-22-2021, 08:51 PM

Originally Posted by Donniex3Era

All of the magazines and experts have us at no higher than 5th place in conference. That is NOT going to get us to the promised land -- NCAA tourney.
It's a new year, lots of new faces...I get it. Anyone out there more positive?

First, that’s not accurate. I’ve seen several alleged experts that have the Flyers anywhere from 3rd to 6th. However, the most important thing to remember is these “experts” really have no more knowledge than the typical fan. Also, the last 4 A10 preseason favorites haven’t finished higher than 3rd. Not worth losing any sleep over.

Swampy Meadows · #4 10-22-2021, 09:22 PM

Ken Pomeroy has UD #3 in the A-10.

Chill.

steverino015 · #5 10-22-2021, 09:53 PM

first of all NO pre season prediction will ever "get us to the promised land.."

I would much rather fly under the radar, and over achieve... most
publications are using last year as the base...

meh, I'm okay.. it is not how we are preseason,
it is where we are at the end...

UD62 · #6 10-23-2021, 08:52 AM

I'm not a big fan of "under the radar". I would much rather be on the radar every, or almost every, year. AG has upped the recruiting game and should he continue on that path I could see the Flyers being a blip on the screen more years than not.

Alberto Strasse · #7 10-23-2021, 10:10 AM

The Dayton program has a long history of over-achievement when they are overlooked and under-achievement when they are puffed up by the Media. Enjoy this year. Nobody sees the Dayton Flyers coming this year but for Pomeroy.

m21eagle45 · #8 10-23-2021, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by steverino015

first of all NO pre season prediction will ever "get us to the promised land.."

I would much rather fly under the radar, and over achieve... most
publications are using last year as the base...

meh, I'm okay.. it is not how we are preseason,
it is where we are at the end...

I hate this mentality. You don't hear Gonzaga fans, VCU fans, or X fans saying they wish they would fly under the radar. If you want to be an elite program, you want to be on the radar each and every year. We are always saying we want to dominate the A10 and be like X was when they were in the A10. That means Not just being on the radar, but beating expectations.

UD62 · #9 10-23-2021, 01:15 PM

It's simple, if you want to play with the big dogs, you have to get off the porch.Hiding in the "under the radar"mentality is an admission that we can't compete on a regular basis. Being ranked has advantages with recruits and alumni. Give me a preseason top 25 ranking every year, I'll let AG take care of the rest.

steverino015 · #10 10-23-2021, 04:37 PM

oh baloney with a cajun twist... I love the mentality....

a lot of pre season ratings are begun with how we did
last year.... get over it, in my opinion...

if anyone really wants to debate: it is much more important
how we finish that how are preseason rating is, then
we're bored.... the season cannot begin soon enough...)

win the games and everything will take care of themselves..

meh

Marysville Flyer · #11 10-23-2021, 06:58 PM

Originally Posted by UD62

It's simple, if you want to play with the big dogs, you have to get off the porch.Hiding in the "under the radar"mentality is an admission that we can't compete on a regular basis. Being ranked has advantages with recruits and alumni. Give me a preseason top 25 ranking every year, I'll let AG take care of the rest.

We are under the radar because we haven’t been able to compete year in and year out for like 50 years. If / when we get there we will expect and love the preseason hype. Until then, I like less headlines in the pre season. Last year was a perfect example of over hype and under achieve. Under the radar hasn’t hurt AGs recruiting one bit.
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steverino015 · #12 10-23-2021, 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer

We are under the radar because we haven’t been able to compete year in and year out for like 50 years. If / when we get there we will expect and love the preseason hype. Until then, I like less headlines in the pre season. Last year was a perfect example of over hype and under achieve. Under the radar hasn’t hurt AGs recruiting one bit.
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bingo! exactly the way I feel also....

Donniex3Era · #13 10-23-2021, 08:27 PM

so one is worried or concerned..got it. feeling better

Ready Action · #14 10-23-2021, 09:04 PM

The nicest thing about it is that mostly the schedule lends to the Flyers’ record at the and of the day showing who they are.
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sheg · #15 10-24-2021, 05:56 AM

Originally Posted by Donniex3Era

so one is worried or concerned..got it. feeling better

Few preseason predictors are going to be able to quantitatively assess this team and come up with a top 50 prediction. The computer services don't heavily weight incoming freshmen for one thing.

Last year's results (not very good) minus last year's seniors (who dominated the stat sheet) minus last year's transfers out...plus this year's freshmen plus this year's transfers in...equals a big fat question mark.

To the outsider, it's not a terribly impressive roster.

Now, to us, we see all the potential reasons for optimism. The depth. The returnees. The transfers. The freshmen. The coaching. There are eight players that would not shock me if I see them on all-conference teams in March. And I hope the other five prove me wrong.

But there's uncertainty. Of the eight that I believe CAN make an all-conference team, there's only one (Camara) that I would bet on at even money. We have no idea now they'll gel. What the rotations will be. What injuries will happen. Whether a contributor like Chase Johnson leaves midseason for "medical reasons."

Kenpom and Torvik will tell you that their preseason ratings are just an approximation based on last year to seed the algorithm until enough data is gathered on this season. They're not trying to predict this season (necessarily). Both of those services gradually diminish prior year results to the point where they'll be a non-factor by mid year.

You're a national college basketball writer. How is Fresno State looking this year? The answer is that you have little clue. So you look at last year's results, who they lose, who they gain, you compare it to their conference, jumble all that up, and make a reasonable guess on where they'll finish. But you can't factor in all the little details. Injuries. Player development. Surprise freshmen. Overall, your predictions will be decent. But for a few select teams, you'll be off significantly in either direction.

Reality check says last year's team lost four seniors including one of the best players in Dayton history.
But there's a lot of reason for optimism. There is a lot of talent here. Whether the coaches find the perfect formula with this bunch remains to be seen. So sit back and enjoy the ride and don't be semi depressed about something that 1) hasn't happened yet and 2) you have no control over.

Smitty10 · #16 10-24-2021, 12:27 PM

I have to say, if the only satisfaction you'll get is if the Flyers make the dance, then you're probably going to be very disappointed. This is the season to have fun watching all the young players develop. Yes they have a lot of potential talent, but there aren't many Fab Fives in history like Michigan had. This is the season to watch and get excited for next year. Could they outperform expectations and roll into the NCAA tournament? Absolutely. But I'm not counting on it and probably would bet against it if I had to bet one way or another. But I'm going to be watching with intense interest to see their development and dreaming of big things next season.

This is different. Last season was a disappointment because we expected a slip off losing Obi but had one year left of Jalen and hoped for a trip to the dance. Sometimes rooting for a young team to develop is much more fun than rooting for an experienced team be successful when they aren't cooperating with your wishes.