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  #1  
Old 07-05-2018, 12:41 AM
Bat'71 Bat'71 is offline
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Trade war threat may be overblown

Despite all the "sturm und drang" in Media reports concerning the apparent looming global trade war, between the US and our European "Allies" along with our Nafta partners, negotiations seem to be continuing apace with all of them. Nothing is settled, mind you, but talks remain open and a protracted trade war is not inevitable.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nafta-tal...212250325.html

https://www.bloombergquint.com/globa...-new-assurance
Notwithstanding the "Headline" of this piece, it's the second half of the article that holds the reality of the situation.
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Old 07-25-2018, 10:24 AM
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Perhaps there is a negotiated way out for the EU and US to negotiate a new trade/tariff system that would benefit all. This is something that (IMHO) could be the end point of Trump's bluster on unfair trade. Getting intransigent parties to eventually reach good faith negotiating positions sometimes takes painful, even punitive actions to get their attention.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...trump-on-trade
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Old 07-25-2018, 06:52 PM
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Hey. whaddaya know? Trump gets a "trade deal" with Junker of the EU. Now, the devil is in the details of course, but this sounds quite promising. Good news!
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/...nd-presidency/
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  #4  
Old 07-25-2018, 07:47 PM
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I think it is good as long as they tip-toe around the auto industry. That's the elephant in the room that could bring down the house of cards.
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Old 07-25-2018, 08:04 PM
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Nonetheless

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
I think it is good as long as they tip-toe around the auto industry. That's the elephant in the room that could bring down the house of cards.
It's a start and it sounds good. It will be especially nice if it boots NAFTA along.
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Old 07-25-2018, 10:34 PM
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When this is all done, the USA will not be structured into a trade disadvantage with the EU anymore. Trump will make tariffs and protections "reciprocal". Once they come down, the USA will reciprocate.

It's not that complicated. In fact, it's common sense.

You simply have to mean it like Trump means it.
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Old 07-25-2018, 11:17 PM
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I also think that Trump might enlist the EU and others to stand together against China. That could be Yuuuuge also.
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  #8  
Old 07-26-2018, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
I think it is good as long as they tip-toe around the auto industry. That's the elephant in the room that could bring down the house of cards.
Please explain.
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:24 AM
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Let's see what happens. Right now it's not much more than an informal agreement to develop a more formal agreement at a later date and time.
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  #10  
Old 07-26-2018, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Please explain.
Jim Press, Ex-Vice Chair of Chrysler:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/0...le-toyota.html

Also just Google "trade wars auto industry".
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:03 AM
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http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/07/27/marc-thiessen-trump-is-using-tariffs-to-advance-radical-free-trade-agenda.html

Follow along with the bigger picture:


http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/...de-agenda.html

In a little-noticed interview with Fox News's Maria Bartiromo earlier this month, Trump revealed that during the G-7 summit he made a sweeping proposal. "I said, 'I have an idea, everybody. I'll guarantee you we'll do it immediately. Nobody pay any more tax, everybody take down your barriers. No barriers, no tax. Everybody, are you all set?' ... You know what happened? Everybody said, 'Uh, can we get onto another subject?'" Trump offered to eliminate all trade barriers -- and his supposedly pro-free-trade allies passed. Right before his meeting with Juncker this week, he repeated the offer, tweeting, "The European Union is coming to Washington tomorrow to negotiate a deal on Trade. I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies!"

Trump knows that most of our trading partners don't really want free trade; they want managed trade, where they can get access to U.S. markets while protecting certain industries from U.S. competition. Trump's strategy to get them to drop these protectionist barriers is to impose crushing tariffs. At a rally earlier this week, Trump explained his strategy for getting to zero tariffs. "You know, other countries have tariffs on us. So, when I say, 'Well, I'm going to put tariffs on them,' they all start screaming, 'He's using tariffs,'" Trump said. "I said [to the European Union], 'You have to change.' They didn't want to change. I said, 'Okay. Good. We're going to tariff your cars.' ... They said, 'When can we show up? When can we be there?' [Laughter.] 'Would tomorrow be okay?' Oh, folks, stick with us. Stick with us."
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  #12  
Old 07-27-2018, 05:26 PM
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And just yesterday, I read more Trump bashing, this time about his having to bail out farmers to the tune of 20 billion "..in American taxpayer money!"
Really??? I would like that pundit to provide us with a list of government
programs and initiatives that aren't funded by American taxpayer's money!
The bruhaha on the tariff confrontation will soon be a thing of the past and
we'll slowly climb out of the hole prior administration's dug us ino.
The only economic challenge facing us is now and will be how to manage our relationship with China.
Most of Europe presently relies on the economic viability of Germany.
Do we want to in any way to partner up with a Europe that can't pay its' bills today (NATO)?
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Old 07-27-2018, 08:38 PM
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Yes

Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
And just yesterday, I read more Trump bashing, this time about his having to bail out farmers to the tune of 20 billion "..in American taxpayer money!"
Really??? I would like that pundit to provide us with a list of government
programs and initiatives that aren't funded by American taxpayer's money!
The bruhaha on the tariff confrontation will soon be a thing of the past and
we'll slowly climb out of the hole prior administration's dug us ino.
The only economic challenge facing us is now and will be how to manage our relationship with China.
Most of Europe presently relies on the economic viability of Germany.
Do we want to in any way to partner up with a Europe that can't pay its' bills today (NATO)?
Europe needs to pony up more for NATO. But we need good, friendly, respectful relations with European countries. Not the kind of relationship that sends hundreds of thousands out in the streets protesting a visit by the American President.

Maintaining effective sanctions against Russia, Iran and NK requires European cooperation. Striking a new JCPOA agreement with Iran requires European cooperation. Any notion that we can treat these countries and their leaders with disrespect.....to bully them....is self-defeating.
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:21 AM
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...war/832596002/
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:49 AM
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The EU and NATO are chimeras of a bygone era, IMHO. Sure we'd like their support, but we should not bow to their intransigence on major issues that directly effect us or hinder what's in our best interest. Our Euro-elite brethren have been wrong on most major policy prescriptions for over a century and have dragged us, one way or another, into two of the most destructive wars in history. As allies, they aren't all that reliable to begin with and can't, or won't, summon the will to fund their own meager defense spending commitments, so how can we rely on them if we need them to step up and actually fight? Moreover, the EU (France and Germany, in particular) are beholding to their Unions and will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to lower trade barriers and become moe cost competitive and productive.

Why some of our elites want to emulate the EU positions on culture (which they have been abandoning with their immigration policies), trade (which they heavily subsidize) or monetary policy (that Germany uses to further it's mercantilism end game at the expense of less prosperous southern neighbors) is beyond me.

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Old 07-28-2018, 08:52 AM
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Good article (IMHO) on the waning influence of the EU and NATO:

https://www.nationalreview.com/magaz...ntinent-falls/
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Old 07-29-2018, 10:50 AM
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Larry Kudlow is on Face the Nation. He says great progress is being made with Mexico, and he hopes there is an announcement soon. The EU itemized negotiation of last week's agreement will start immediately.

Kudlow hinted that China is being isolated, and will be dealt with after some other issues.

He also said that it is a certainty that the tax cuts will more than be paid for through growth and increased collections.
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Old 08-28-2018, 09:09 AM
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Well, well.well...whaddaya know? Progress is being made on trade and things are looking up.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1LC1E7
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Old 08-28-2018, 12:24 PM
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Some things are just too complicated..

I've heard it explained that Brexit should never have been put to a referendum because it's absolutely impossible for voters to understand the consequences of what they were voting for. Since the vote the UK has been tearing itself apart trying to deal with the consequences of the vote.

Along those lines, last night on Fox I heard Robert Lighthizer, Trump's trade rep, explain the details of the new trade agreement with Mexico. He was thorough, detailed and persuasive explaining the benefits for the U.S. as well as Mexico. I did not understand much of his explanation...but he was impressive and I was encouraged.

This morning the Wall Street Journal editorial board ripped into the terms of the new deal, explaining why it is much worse than NAFTA which was of great benefit to all three countries involved. I didn't understand the details of the WSJ position either...other than it was the exact opposite of Lighthizer's. Bloomberg also ripped into the new deal.

Bottom line: Some things are just too complicated for digestion by laymen. One thing I do understand. Lighthizer and the Journal can't both be right. Maybe reality lies between their opposing views. But, there's no way laymen are going to be able to develop a sound opinion on their own.
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Old 08-28-2018, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
I've heard it explained that Brexit should never have been put to a referendum because it's absolutely impossible for voters to understand the consequences of what they were voting for. Since the vote the UK has been tearing itself apart trying to deal with the consequences of the vote.

Along those lines, last night on Fox I heard Robert Lighthizer, Trump's trade rep, explain the details of the new trade agreement with Mexico. He was thorough, detailed and persuasive explaining the benefits for the U.S. as well as Mexico. I did not understand much of his explanation...but he was impressive and I was encouraged.

This morning the Wall Street Journal editorial board ripped into the terms of the new deal, explaining why it is much worse than NAFTA which was of great benefit to all three countries involved. I didn't understand the details of the WSJ position either...other than it was the exact opposite of Lighthizer's. Bloomberg also ripped into the new deal.

Bottom line: Some things are just too complicated for digestion by laymen. One thing I do understand. Lighthizer and the Journal can't both be right. Maybe reality lies between their opposing views. But, there's no way laymen are going to be able to develop a sound opinion on their own.
The best way for a layman to understand the new agreement is to let the experts decide. In other words, follow the money, and the money is making the market go UP!
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Old 08-28-2018, 04:04 PM
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Not so sure....

Originally Posted by cj View Post
The best way for a layman to understand the new agreement is to let the experts decide. In other words, follow the money, and the money is making the market go UP!
cj, in this case I'm not so sure that market's response is indicative of satisfaction. Every report I've read was very supportive of the benefits of NAFTA for all three countries. Trump's was the only voice in opposition.

I suppose after ~ 25 years some improvement was possible. But there was concern that Trump intended to torpedo NAFTA entirely. Thus, the positive response to the tentative U.S.-Mexican deal is likely a sign of relief that NAFTA will be tweaked, not necessarily for the better, but will remain largely unchanged. Let's see how easily Canada comes aboard. That crucial, of course.
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Old 08-28-2018, 06:59 PM
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The man's a moron!

Over the past two days amidst a sense of friendly optimism re a trade agreement the U.S. and Mexico have been saying nice things about each other. So today the President emphasizes that the "Wall" will be built and Mexico is going t pay for it...an issue of extreme sensitivity in Mexico. Boing!
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Old 08-28-2018, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Bottom line: Some things are just too complicated for digestion by laymen. One thing I do understand. Lighthizer and the Journal can't both be right. Maybe reality lies between their opposing views. But, there's no way laymen are going to be able to develop a sound opinion on their own.
I want to vomit when I read stuff like this. The "laymen" understand perfectly well what is happening to their country. It's analogous to Trump and his victory. For years now, we have heard how Trump and his supporters just could not grasp the complexities of foreign relations and global economic forces.

How much data does it take before you can see that is not the case? How many successes? How much improvement? How many unemployment and economic records must be broken? I have Trump-hating friends who are still trying to explain away all the failed predictions of market collapse, etc. I hope they dumped their stock when he was elected. I have to say that they are an extremely committed to their conclusions despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. A very dedicated group, they are.

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Old 08-28-2018, 09:12 PM
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Kidding yourself

Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
I want to vomit when I read stuff like this. The "laymen" understand perfectly well what is happening to their country. It's analogous to Trump and his victory. For years now, we have heard how Trump and his supporters just could not grasp the complexities of foreign relations and global economic forces.

How much data does it take before you can see that is not the case? How many successes? How much improvement? How many unemployment and economic records must be broken? I have Trump-hating friends who are still trying to explain away all the failed predictions of market collapse, etc. I hope they dumped their stock when he was elected. I have to say that they are an extremely committed to their conclusions despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. A very dedicated group, they are.
Fudd, you're kidding yourself if you think you understand the intricacies and consequences of trade agreements. The comments in your first para have nothing to do with what I said. So vomit away!
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Old 08-28-2018, 11:49 PM
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You can make a strong case that since most citizens know nothing about international trade agreements, military strategy, GDP, have never run a business, understand taxation both personal and corporate, lack any real understanding in the sciences such as geology, climatology, chemistry, biology, and engineering, know next to nothing about medicine, couldn't pass a 3rd grade US civics test, don't know who the 13 colonies separated from for independence, can't name their own governor and two senators, suck at parenting, can't drive worth a shyt, and spend $2.00 a bottle on water that's more polluted than the stuff coming out of their kitchen taps for a penny a liter -- have absolutely no business voting in elections and steering the course of an entire nation on complete unapologetic ignorance to the detriment of future generations to come.

So why do citizens pretend to know -- much of anything -- and act as authorities over those far more intellectually talented and experienced? Why do we insist on believing we have the answers when its objectively true we don't know squat about squat?

I have no real expertise on any of this stuff. So how can I fairly evaluate candidates and what they claim to know when by definition I can't know if I know what they know is accurate or a figment of their imagination?

Basically all elections have come down to is "which turd makes me feel good."

Perhaps we'd be better off if the greatest engineers created a consortium and they handled all the building projects in America, the greatest doctors we had steered medicine and treatment and healthcare, the best military strategists ran the armed forces, the best astronomers handled space and space travel, etc. Put the experts in charge of things they know more about than everyone else.

What does Maxine Waters or Lindsay Graham know about human DNA or cutting-edge farming techniques or cyber warfare? Nothing. So why are they and 533 other ignoramuses given the keys to the car?

Scary times.
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Old 08-29-2018, 10:02 AM
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Chris, all good points. I have often said that you should be required to pass a basic civics test in order to vote.
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Old 08-29-2018, 10:35 AM
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As I got older and more experience I realized that voting for most individuals is as Chris said, a guessing game of who makes you feel good. I voted for McGovern and Clinton (once), and Bush, and McCain, and Romney and Trump. I have voted for many in both parties in many elections for state and local candidates. Those individuals are always consistent with the party views once they get into office.

This is why I now vote party line of Republican. I vote for a philosophy and a position on what they will do and vote in general. Voting for a person is a waste of a vote.

Trump is a prime example. You can dislike him as a person, or his morals or his tweeting, but he is consistent on his overall philosophy of less taxes, less government, right to life, legal aliens, freer trade, and that a strong economy overcomes a bunch of sins.
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Old 08-29-2018, 02:19 PM
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Per the liberal NYT-Canada “races” to US to talk trade deal after Mexico cuts a deal. This is what’s called winning. It’s also called using your leverage to your advantage.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/28/b...rade-deal.html
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Old 08-29-2018, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
As I got older and more experience I realized that voting for most individuals is as Chris said, a guessing game of who makes you feel good. I voted for McGovern and Clinton (once), and Bush, and McCain, and Romney and Trump. I have voted for many in both parties in many elections for state and local candidates. Those individuals are always consistent with the party views once they get into office.

This is why I now vote party line of Republican. I vote for a philosophy and a position on what they will do and vote in general. Voting for a person is a waste of a vote.

Trump is a prime example. You can dislike him as a person, or his morals or his tweeting, but he is consistent on his overall philosophy of less taxes, less government, right to life, legal aliens, freer trade, and that a strong economy overcomes a bunch of sins.
Also known as voting for substance over form. IMO, Dems have always been about form “good intentions” and never about substance “results”.
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Old 08-29-2018, 02:49 PM
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http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/...countries.html
Good explanation. You’ll now see others fall in line with new trade agreements.
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Old 08-29-2018, 04:57 PM
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These steps may be trade progress, but its still not unfettered capitalist trade where there are zero restrictions on everything. No tariffs, no wage mins or maxes, no parts content requirements, no assembly origin mandates, etc.

Real trade is free from all restrictions. I want the productive skills and products and labor from other countries replacing those same unproductive segments in the USA so the USA can divert resources to areas where we are productive. Wasting too much capital and energy doing things other countries can do better and for less cost. The more we can exploit other countries, the better, because it just conserves our own resources (many of them natural resources). If they can grow and pick a pineapple for 10 cents, let em' do it. Instead, lets focus on creating pineapple trees that can grow in colder climates, etc.

I dont want any trade barriers whatsoever (both ways of course). Get these government bureaucrats and industry hacks out of it. They want regulations because it lines their pockets and gives them competitive advantages over other competing industries. Wheres the fairness in that.
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Old 08-30-2018, 10:52 AM
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Chris, you're speaking of the "Law of Comparative Advantage" (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c...eadvantage.asp) which ideally should be pursued by all nations*. However we should not fall into the trap of disparaging improvements in trade practices in pursuit of the perfect. In any new trade agreements there will be winners and losers and the losers will howl, so it's probably wise to take some of the criticism with a pound of salt.


*In certain sectors this is not wise or practicable, however (e.g. sectors inexorably linked to National Defense and other sensitive areas.)
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Old 08-30-2018, 11:44 AM
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1LE179
And here comes Canada to join in. Trump does it again. The dominoes are starting to fall.
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Old 08-30-2018, 11:49 AM
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/30/b...o-tariffs.html
Per NYT, EU now willing to end auto tariffs. This is big.
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Old 08-30-2018, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/30/b...o-tariffs.html
Per NYT, EU now willing to end auto tariffs. This is big.
not big - YUGE
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Old 09-18-2018, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71 View Post
Perhaps there is a negotiated way out for the EU and US to negotiate a new trade/tariff system that would benefit all. This is something that (IMHO) could be the end point of Trump's bluster on unfair trade. Getting intransigent parties to eventually reach good faith negotiating positions sometimes takes painful, even punitive actions to get their attention.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...trump-on-trade
So how we doin two months later with the so-called trade war effect? The following is from Reuters:

"China's retaliation only included $60 billion worth of U.S. goods and reduced the level of tariffs it would collect, convincing some that Beijing was running out of options to hit back.

"Markets are looking at China's retaliation in a way that it wasn't as bad as expected and that is a win, which is part of the reason why we are seeing a rally today," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago.

The benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were on track for their biggest percentage gain in nearly three weeks. The S&P was about 9 points away from hitting a record high.

"Investors right now are comfortable saying 'buy', realizing that the trade conflict hasn't had much of an impact on the broader economy in the past six months," Nolte added."
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Old 09-20-2018, 03:18 PM
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Dow hits a new all-time high today. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all hit new all-time highs this month. What trade war repercussions?
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Old 09-20-2018, 03:53 PM
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There will be regular corrections in the market eventually, but the economy in general is "killing it". I say make the tax deductions permanent. They are paying for themselves in increased financial activity. Swampy has been lobbying to make them permanent since they were introduced, so we will have bipartisan support.

This is possible because Trump understands the basic principles that make business work. Combine that with no traditional obligations to interest groups that "paid" for his campaign, etc and a relentless pursuit of fulfilling his campaign promises because he actually believed in them and you get success.
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Old 09-20-2018, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Dow hits a new all-time high today. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all hit new all-time highs this month. What trade war repercussions?
Good question.

So many fear tactics were used against this trade war: but job creation will suffer!...but economic growth will suffer!...but the GOP will suffer in the polls!...but prices will go up!

But, but, but.

Blah, blah, blah.

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Old 09-20-2018, 05:46 PM
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US jobless claims drop to 49 year low for 3rd straight week in a row.
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Old 09-21-2018, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Dow hits a new all-time high today. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all hit new all-time highs this month. What trade war repercussions?
Clearly, you are not in the sectors getting hammered by them. That does not mean they should stop, just that there are businesses feeling significant negative effects - Farmers are an example.
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Old 09-21-2018, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Clearly, you are not in the sectors getting hammered by them. That does not mean they should stop, just that there are businesses feeling significant negative effects - Farmers are an example.
Two lake friends who are farmers, both have bought newer larger boats in the past couple of months and one upgraded his lake home. One boat was a 6 digit price tag. I am sure some are hurting, but many are still smiling all the way to the bank, or marina.
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Old 09-21-2018, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Clearly, you are not in the sectors getting hammered by them. That does not mean they should stop, just that there are businesses feeling significant negative effects - Farmers are an example.
I am sure you have no facts to back this up, nor the statements by several industries that this will hurt them in some was.

Not many people get in a working position in their careers that they get to see how the price increase game is played. I was able to see when I worked in a large corporate office for five years. They, and most companies welcome the talk of higher raw materials because they can justify price increases to their customers. Very hard to raise prices with no raw material justification, unless you have control of a market, like Apple. So they rattle the public's cages about material increases, and laugh all the way to the bank. Sure there are a few who will take hits, like some of the farmers, but most won't. However, they, and we, all have been hammered for years by some countries like China, and the farmers by the huge Canadian tariff on milk.

See many big investors and fund managers know how this charade is played, and they know it will help the bottom line of almost all businesses, and not effect inflation in a material way.
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Old 09-21-2018, 03:41 PM
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I know a lot of guys who farm as a supplement to their regular incomes. I don't know any poor farmers.
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:44 AM
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HMMMMMMMM. There appears to be a method to Trump's "madness". It will be interesting to see how the "Media" spins this development.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/us-c...ade-talks.html
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:50 AM
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Wow, Trump does it again with a new Trade deal and the Dow booms 250 points. The guy is a genius and master negotiator.
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Old 10-01-2018, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Bat'71 View Post
HMMMMMMMM. There appears to be a method to Trump's "madness". It will be interesting to see how the "Media" spins this development.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/us-c...ade-talks.html
Liberal and anti-Trump heads exploding this morning. Trump does it again.
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Old 10-02-2018, 10:51 AM
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Trade is complicated....

Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Wow, Trump does it again with a new Trade deal and the Dow booms 250 points. The guy is a genius and master negotiator.
Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Liberal and anti-Trump heads exploding this morning. Trump does it again.
He did it! Just like he said he would...and the new USMCA deal may catalyze other agreements and, hopefully, pressure China.

But, deals like this are very complicated. I don't pretend to understand them much less evaluate the pros and cons. Having said that, the opinion expressed by the WSJ editorial board in this mornings editorial, as it went through the features of the agreement one by one, is that the new deal is not as good as NAFTA...and that the only good thing about it as reflected by the positive market response is that it's not worse as was feared. That is, the response of markets reflects relief, rather than endorsement of the new USMCA

I hope the Journal is wrong in their view and that all parties benefit. Time will tell.
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Old 10-02-2018, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Having said that, the opinion expressed by the WSJ editorial board in this mornings editorial, as it went through the features of the agreement one by one, is that the new deal is not as good as NAFTA...

I hope the Journal is wrong in their view and that all parties benefit. Time will tell.
I remember Ross Perot making the comment about NAFTA .... " that whooshing sound you hear are all the jobs moving to Mexico ... "

Pretty much the tale of the tape on that. Even the unions where against it. And they suffered significant loss in their membership.

The US manufacturing base started a downward spiral with NAFTA passage. Yet most large (giant) industries like the auto industry saw it was good to lower their labor costs. So for them, it was a good agreement.

The small to mid-sized suppliers to those plants in Mexico, did not always have the means to follow suit with a factory transplant. Hence they were stuck with higher cost here in the states and their customers expecting margin cuts to feed themselves (customers).

So yea. NAFTA was good .... for some. But not for all.

Now we shall have to wait and see if the 'new deal' is to provide any improvement. Remember, just like NAFTA the full impact negative OR positive will have to wait to see how it plays out.

I know because it involves Trump, the media will claim after a few minutes that nothing good has come out of it, therefore it is a bad deal.

I am willing to wait and see .....
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Old 10-02-2018, 12:28 PM
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From what I have read about the trade deal, we got a lot of things that we wanted, and compromised on not getting rid of some of the existing things that we did not like. It sounds like a positive or neutral for us on all fronts.

We have all heard how unsophisticated Trump was supposed to be (from the establishment that has a track record of failure). His business skills are paying off for the country. He is making the establishment look like idiots.

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Old 10-02-2018, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
I remember Ross Perot making the comment about NAFTA .... " that whooshing sound you hear are all the jobs moving to Mexico ... "

Pretty much the tale of the tape on that. Even the unions where against it. And they suffered significant loss in their membership.

The US manufacturing base started a downward spiral with NAFTA passage. Yet most large (giant) industries like the auto industry saw it was good to lower their labor costs. So for them, it was a good agreement.

The small to mid-sized suppliers to those plants in Mexico, did not always have the means to follow suit with a factory transplant. Hence they were stuck with higher cost here in the states and their customers expecting margin cuts to feed themselves (customers).

So yea. NAFTA was good .... for some. But not for all.

Now we shall have to wait and see if the 'new deal' is to provide any improvement. Remember, just like NAFTA the full impact negative OR positive will have to wait to see how it plays out.

I know because it involves Trump, the media will claim after a few minutes that nothing good has come out of it, therefore it is a bad deal.

I am willing to wait and see .....
I suspect the new deal will also be good for some and not all.
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Old 10-03-2018, 08:58 AM
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IAflyer

Totally agree. Nothing is ever great for every one ... the real good 'agreements ' have something for everyone, yet it is hard to make it come out 'equal'.

In today's society, we have discussed equal outcomes as if they are a universal law guided by physics and the sciences ... and when the outcomes are not equal it is because someone took that away from me.

There is no such reality. I may have been born good looking (alas I was not), I may have been born into wealth (again no such luck) I may have been born both good looking and with wealth (dido still) or I may have been born as I was.

It was up to myself (with the help of family and those offering to help) to get me where I am at now. At times the road was not easy, at times downhill, but I never thought that "just because", I was to be guaranteed a good or equal outcome. (Hence the phrase, "Life's a B I ich")

So I am willing to wait and see how this new 'agreement' plays out for all 3 parties. I hope it turns out better for the USA ... whether it works equal for Mexico and Canada is not going to be my concern.
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Old 10-03-2018, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
IAflyer

Totally agree. Nothing is ever great for every one ... the real good 'agreements ' have something for everyone, yet it is hard to make it come out 'equal'.

In today's society, we have discussed equal outcomes as if they are a universal law guided by physics and the sciences ... and when the outcomes are not equal it is because someone took that away from me.

There is no such reality. I may have been born good looking (alas I was not), I may have been born into wealth (again no such luck) I may have been born both good looking and with wealth (dido still) or I may have been born as I was.

It was up to myself (with the help of family and those offering to help) to get me where I am at now. At times the road was not easy, at times downhill, but I never thought that "just because", I was to be guaranteed a good or equal outcome. (Hence the phrase, "Life's a B I ich")

So I am willing to wait and see how this new 'agreement' plays out for all 3 parties. I hope it turns out better for the USA ... whether it works equal for Mexico and Canada is not going to be my concern.
I wasn't necessarily referring to Mexico and Canada. I am sure there are business segments within the USA where the new treaty will be worse than the old. It's how things work.
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