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02-21-2017, 06:04 PM
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A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities
So what's a guy to do when he wants to be Figgie when he grows up, his boss is on vacation and he can't wait to watch the seniors win their 100th game?
Write a program to simulate the remainder of the A-10 season and determine seeding probabilities.
The program simulates the remainder of the A-10 regular season 100,000 times. Winners are determined for unplayed games using the win probabilities from Massey Ratings. For example, UD has a 82% win probability for tonight vs. George Mason, so they are calculated as the winner in about 82,000 of the 100,000 simulations.
Probabilities Through games of 2/19:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 54.87% 44.97% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.45
VA Commonwealth 45.13% 52.99% 1.85% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.57
Richmond 0.00% 0.10% 57.81% 23.86% 10.06% 5.06% 2.27% 0.69% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.73
Rhode Island 0.00% 1.93% 28.00% 36.94% 19.48% 9.47% 2.79% 1.18% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.21
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 4.08% 15.32% 40.39% 22.91% 10.31% 5.61% 1.22% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.43
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 5.45% 16.83% 15.78% 25.40% 27.71% 6.67% 1.89% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.82
George Mason 0.00% 0.02% 2.26% 5.62% 9.59% 26.70% 32.79% 16.82% 5.70% 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.58
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 1.36% 3.85% 6.77% 9.86% 36.09% 29.71% 11.96% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.11
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.62% 2.59% 10.72% 13.45% 29.24% 37.30% 5.24% 0.83% 0.01% 0.00% 9.05
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.23% 1.11% 3.56% 19.49% 31.36% 40.99% 3.08% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 9.17
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.25% 28.52% 27.53% 26.46% 17.24% 12.32
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 2.53% 26.24% 25.09% 26.48% 19.48% 12.34
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 3.92% 20.10% 26.09% 22.26% 27.36% 12.48
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 2.11% 16.83% 20.32% 24.79% 35.92% 12.75
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Alberto Strasse (02-22-2017), Beatty Town Coach (02-22-2017), Bonziflyer (02-22-2017), ClaytonFlyerFan (03-02-2017), FIFO28 (02-22-2017), Figgie123 (02-22-2017), Flyer 86 (02-24-2017), flyerfanatic86 (02-22-2017), John C. (02-22-2017), LI2UD2PA (02-21-2017), MrsFlyerFanatic (02-22-2017), Radar (02-22-2017), Rick Scaia (02-21-2017), SC_Flyer (02-22-2017), shapanud (02-21-2017), springborofan (02-21-2017), UDBaby (02-22-2017), udx2 (02-21-2017) |
02-21-2017, 06:55 PM
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Sir Figgie would be proud...and maybe relieved that he has part time help in the world of statistics and data.
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02-21-2017, 09:34 PM
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So what happens if we beat VCU but lose to either Davidson or GW? Who gets the #1 seed?
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02-21-2017, 09:53 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob
So what's a guy to do when he wants to be Figgie when he grows up, his boss is on vacation and he can't wait to watch the seniors win their 100th game?
Write a program to simulate the remainder of the A-10 season and determine seeding probabilities.
The program simulates the remainder of the A-10 regular season 100,000 times. Winners are determined for unplayed games using the win probabilities from Massey Ratings. For example, UD has a 82% win probability for tonight vs. George Mason, so they are calculated as the winner in about 82,000 of the 100,000 simulations.
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100,000 simulations? Actual win probabilities? Amateur!
Oh, and you're dead to me.
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02-21-2017, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
So what happens if we beat VCU but lose to either Davidson or GW? Who gets the #1 seed?
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From the A10 website ( http://www.atlantic10.com/ViewArticl...CLID=209901106)...
The following tiebreaker format is utilized for determining the seeding in the Atlantic 10 Men’s Basketball Championship:
Two-Team Tie
1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Conference record of the tied teams based on winning percentage versus the highest
common opponent and proceeding down to the lowest common opponent, if necessary, until
one team gains an advantage.
a. All ties are broken in descending order.
b. When arriving at another pair of tied teams, use each team’s record against the tied teams
as a group. When comparing records against a group of teams, the higher winning
percentage will prevail. In case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or
.000, the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.
3. Coin toss.
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02-21-2017, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
From the A10 website (http://www.atlantic10.com/ViewArticl...CLID=209901106)...
The following tiebreaker format is utilized for determining the seeding in the Atlantic 10 Men’s Basketball Championship:
Two-Team Tie
1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Conference record of the tied teams based on winning percentage versus the highest
common opponent and proceeding down to the lowest common opponent, if necessary, until
one team gains an advantage.
a. All ties are broken in descending order.
b. When arriving at another pair of tied teams, use each team’s record against the tied teams
as a group. When comparing records against a group of teams, the higher winning
percentage will prevail. In case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or
.000, the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.
3. Coin toss.
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If I'm reading this correctly, if VCU and Dayton tie and
a) Richmond finishes 3rd, then VCU wins the tiebreaker (VCU 2-0 vs UR, UD 1-0 vs UR)
b) Rhode Island finished 3rd, then UD wins the tiebreaker (UD 2-0 vs URI, VCU at best 1-0 vs URI
Richmond owns the tiebreaker over URI, so if URI and Richmond tie and UD and VCU tie, I think the seeding goes 1) VCU 2) UD 3) Richmond 4) URI
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02-21-2017, 10:09 PM
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Lieutenant General
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If the Spiders finish alone in 3d VCU gets top seed(2-1). If URI finishes alone 3d and VCU beats URI, we get the nod(2-1). If URI and UR tie for 3d, it's awash with both of us going 3-0, and we move to the 5th place team. If the Bonnies finish in 3d alone we get the nod(2-1). If the Bonnies and URI tie for third we get #1(4-2). If UR and Bonnies tie it's a wash again and off to the 5th place team.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Last edited by UD62; 02-21-2017 at 10:21 PM..
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02-21-2017, 10:20 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by UD62
If the Spiders finish alone in 3d VCU gets top seed. If URI finishes alone 3d and VCU beats URI, we get the nod. If and UR tie for 3d, it's awash with both of us going 3-0. If the Bonnies finish in 3d alone we get the nod.
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So in re-reading the A10 tiebreakers, I think you are right and all 3rd place teams are grouped together when breaking the first place tie. So if UR and URI tie (and assuming VCU beats URI) then the 5th place team would break the tiebreaker. Right now that would be SBU and that wouldn't solve anything because UD and VCU are both 1-0 vs SBU.
It's hardly useful speculating beyond that because there are so many possibilities. Actually, it's probably not useful even speculation this far because of so many variables, but oh well.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-21-2017, 10:22 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
a) Richmond finishes 3rd, then VCU wins the tiebreaker (VCU 2-0 vs UR, UD 1-0 vs UR)
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Isn't 2-0 and 1-0 the same winning percentage?
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02-21-2017, 10:23 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud
So in re-reading the A10 tiebreakers, I think you are right and all 3rd place teams are grouped together when breaking the first place tie. So if UR and URI tie (and assuming VCU beats URI) then the 5th place team would break the tiebreaker. Right now that would be SBU and that wouldn't solve anything because UD and VCU are both 1-0 vs SBU.
It's hardly useful speculating beyond that because there are so many possibilities. Actually, it's probably not useful even speculation this far because of so many variables, but oh well.
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We went 2-0 vs Bonnies, advantage Flyers. Agree there are multiple ways this could end
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-21-2017, 10:25 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Isn't 2-0 and 1-0 the same winning percentage?
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Yes, but the tiebreaker rule states 2-0 better than 1-0
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02-21-2017, 10:29 PM
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VCU loses to URI. We beat VCU. We don't need no stinkin tie breaker.
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02-21-2017, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Isn't 2-0 and 1-0 the same winning percentage?
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Sorry I should have read further down the tie breakers.
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02-21-2017, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
We went 2-0 vs Bonnies, advantage Flyers. Agree there are multiple ways this could end
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Oops. My mistake. Nice catch. So if UD/VCU tie and URI/UR tie and SBU finishes 5th, UD gets the one seed.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-21-2017, 10:38 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by shapanud
Oops. My mistake. Nice catch. So if UD/VCU tie and URI/UR tie and SBU finishes 5th, UD gets the one seed.
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URI and Richmond only played once and Richmond won. If they tie, wouldn't the tiebreaker go to Richmond, thus VCU gets the one seed?
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02-21-2017, 10:39 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by priceg75
So what happens if we beat VCU but lose to either Davidson or GW? Who gets the #1 seed?
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Just ran all possibilities of UD beating VCU and then losing to Davidson. UD is #1 in 84.35% of the possibities, and 15.65% in 2nd.
If UD beats VCU and loses to GW, it's similar, #1 at 83.96% and the remaining at #2 with 16.04%.
Now, realize, those #1 percentages are pretty hefty because UD has a 1 game lead on VCU. As soon as VCU beats Saint Louis tomorrow, all the possibilities that include Saint Louis beating VCU go away, and the numbers come down to more reasonable values.
For instance, VCU > STL, UD > VCU, GW > UD, then UD #1 = 77.32%, #2 = 22.68%.
As of right now after tonight's games, UD is #1 in 54.58% of possibilities, and #2 otherwise. VCU is the only other team with a chance at #1, but they can actually fall to 4th. (0.59%) That probably would include a loss to Saint Louis tomorrow. I'd bet rollo's Royal Mansion on VCU not losing at home to Saint Louis.
Probabilities, assuming a 50/50 chance for any team to win or lose.
Code:
1. Dayton 13- 2 : 0-0 54.58 45.42
2. VCU 12- 2 : 0-0 45.42 47.11 6.88 0.59
3. Richmond 10- 5 : 1-0 0.78 58.72 27.18 8.47 4.24 0.61 0.01
4. Rhode Island 10- 5 : 0-1 6.69 30.14 53.39 7.56 1.85 0.35 0.02 0.00
5. St. Bonaventure 8- 6 : 0-0 1.95 8.65 46.75 16.57 10.93 9.15 4.83 1.16
6. George Mason 8- 7 : 1-0 2.16 7.15 15.17 32.15 19.36 14.45 6.97 2.27 0.32
7. La Salle 8- 7 : 0-1 0.13 2.11 13.01 26.16 35.36 15.03 6.24 1.86 0.10
8. Davidson 7- 8 : 0-0 0.51 4.00 7.75 11.82 25.24 33.61 16.52 0.55
9. Fordham 6- 8 : 0-0 0.01 0.40 1.32 3.74 9.70 19.75 26.05 31.16 6.08 1.56 0.21 0.01
10. George Washington 6- 8 : 0-0 0.01 3.71 7.55 11.84 16.03 20.66 31.14 6.28 2.40 0.36 0.00
11. Saint Louis 4-10 : 0-0 0.00 0.04 0.32 1.17 5.87 48.46 25.54 13.00 5.59
12. Massachusetts 3-11 : 2-1 0.19 3.44 10.46 24.02 34.06 27.84
13. Duquesne 3-11 : 1-0 0.11 4.06 12.40 28.74 28.44 26.25
14. Saint Joseph's 3-11 : 0-2 0.17 2.51 15.35 17.73 23.92 40.31
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02-21-2017, 10:43 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
URI and Richmond only played once and Richmond won. If they tie, wouldn't the tiebreaker go to Richmond, thus VCU gets the one seed?
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The tiebreaker for 3rd place goes to Richmond, but that doesn't affect the #1 seed.
Last year, someone on the A10 board talked to the A10 office and they work on seed lines from the top. So, they go for #1, then #2 etc ... After a seed is identified, that team is solo in identifying tie breaks later on, otherwise it's the record against the group of teams at that lower win level.
So, for a UD/VCU tie, they would group Richmond/RI for a tie break check. Let's say UD gets #1, and VCU gets #2 because of Bonnies in 5th, if Ric/ URI were tied, and were 1-1 head to head (hypothetically), they would take the record against UD as the first tie breaker, not UD/VCU as the group tiebreaker.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-21-2017, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
URI and Richmond only played once and Richmond won. If they tie, wouldn't the tiebreaker go to Richmond, thus VCU gets the one seed?
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Winning percentage is used to group teams in the tiebreaker. Now as far as who gets the 3 seed, head to head would be used and the Spiders would indeed get the nod. Didn't mean to repeat Figgie's post we were posting at the same time.
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02-22-2017, 10:08 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/21:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.80% 40.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
VA Commonwealth 40.20% 57.04% 2.72% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.63
Richmond 0.00% 0.04% 69.46% 25.59% 4.00% 0.75% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.36
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.72% 26.55% 61.96% 6.42% 2.01% 0.27% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.80
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.98% 8.13% 68.43% 13.44% 5.41% 2.72% 0.75% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.26
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 2.66% 11.84% 36.68% 37.54% 9.12% 1.83% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.45
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 1.54% 6.63% 38.66% 32.32% 16.56% 3.70% 0.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.68
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 1.38% 2.72% 5.56% 32.20% 38.40% 19.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.62
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.10% 4.14% 13.40% 15.30% 24.67% 35.73% 4.84% 0.81% 0.01% 0.00% 8.89
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.19% 1.60% 5.37% 24.03% 30.15% 35.49% 3.02% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 9.01
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 2.29% 25.91% 25.22% 26.81% 19.63% 12.35
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 26.60% 25.01% 27.49% 20.67% 12.42
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.32% 3.75% 20.26% 26.48% 22.31% 26.89% 12.47
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 2.06% 19.37% 22.35% 23.38% 32.81% 12.65
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02-22-2017, 11:12 AM
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Major General
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So, if we do earn the 1, our likely path would be through one of Davidson, GW, or Fordham. Then a Rhode Island / Bona winner. Then VCU / Richmond.
Yuk, I don't like Rhody or Bona on our side. I would much prefer LaSalle, George Mason, or Richmond.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-22-2017, 09:15 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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In before LIBob ...
Code:
1. VCU 13- 2 : 1-0 53.36 43.90 2.73
2. Dayton 13- 2 : 0-1 46.64 53.36
3. Richmond 10- 5 : 1-0 59.67 24.86 8.76 5.54 1.17 0.01
4. Rhode Island 10- 5 : 0-1 2.73 32.08 51.93 9.83 2.60 0.77 0.05 0.00
5. St. Bonaventure 9- 6 : 0-0 3.71 14.55 55.25 13.01 7.36 4.78 1.27 0.06
6. George Mason 8- 7 : 1-0 1.70 6.29 9.75 35.71 21.15 14.63 7.89 2.87
7. La Salle 8- 7 : 0-1 0.09 1.47 8.33 25.38 35.93 19.06 7.66 2.07
8. Fordham 7- 8 : 1-1 0.01 0.46 1.91 6.35 13.69 23.84 26.60 27.14
9. Davidson 7- 8 : 1-1 0.44 3.73 5.21 8.44 21.60 38.48 22.10
10. George Washington 6- 8 : 0-0 0.00 2.43 6.19 11.49 16.03 17.99 39.97 4.64 1.25
11. Saint Louis 4-11 : 0-0 0.78 50.72 26.22 14.47 7.81
12. Massachusetts 3-11 : 0-0 0.10 4.62 18.59 29.86 30.33 16.50
13. Saint Joseph's 3-12 : 0-0 0.39 12.26 15.80 28.08 43.48
14. Duquesne 3-12 : 0-0 13.79 26.88 27.12 32.21
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02-23-2017, 08:48 AM
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I didn't realize this has turned into a competition.
Probabilities Through games of 2/22:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 60.24% 39.76% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
VA Commonwealth 39.76% 57.73% 2.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.63
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 67.87% 24.88% 5.90% 1.13% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.41
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.51% 27.69% 59.32% 7.42% 2.63% 0.32% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.81
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 1.71% 12.82% 74.51% 8.14% 2.04% 0.71% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.98
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 1.46% 7.36% 38.72% 43.77% 7.09% 1.40% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.53
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 1.49% 3.35% 43.96% 32.56% 15.66% 2.68% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.65
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.95% 1.59% 4.59% 42.46% 36.09% 14.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.54
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 3.53% 13.54% 14.24% 29.05% 34.72% 4.01% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 8.90
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 2.94% 19.75% 30.28% 42.38% 4.18% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 9.25
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 3.49% 26.41% 24.44% 21.98% 23.63% 12.36
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.38% 4.03% 20.82% 27.02% 21.57% 26.19% 12.44
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 25.58% 23.22% 25.66% 25.27% 12.50
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.54% 19.01% 24.75% 30.79% 24.91% 12.61
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3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-23-2017, 08:57 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Why can't we just average the two?
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02-23-2017, 09:33 AM
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Lieutenant General
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Looks like folks are entitled to their own set of facts. Different methods often result in different results. I conclude from the stats presented that UD may have the highest probability of finishing first except when they don't.
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02-23-2017, 12:11 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Originally Posted by UD62
Looks like folks are entitled to their own set of facts. Different methods often result in different results. I conclude from the stats presented that UD may have the highest probability of finishing first except when they don't.
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LIBob and I are doing things slightly differently, and that's why the numbers don't match exactly.
LIBob is doing a probability of winning matrix, while I'm doing a "Coach K Grind of the A10" method (ie. UMass>UD, Fordham>VCU).
LIBob is doing a smaller sample size, where I'm trying every single combination that can occur.
I think it is really interesting to see how the probability method is pretty close to the all possibilities method, which almost goes to show that the A10 is pretty even outside of the fringe teams.
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02-23-2017, 12:31 PM
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Captain
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Exactly right, Figgie. i tried to make something that reflected what "experts" would predict what would happen in lieu of "every game is a coin flip".
I found it interesting today when the differential in the % of UD getting the #1 seed between us actually grew. I thought that with VCU winning a game that had a 97% probability of winning would bring us closer together.
Much respect for your work!
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02-23-2017, 12:34 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by LIBob
I found it interesting today when the differential in the % of UD getting the #1 seed between us actually grew. I thought that with VCU winning a game that had a 97% probability of winning would bring us closer together.
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It goes to show that VCU has more tougher games on their schedule than UD does.
VCU: @ URI (3/4), @DAY (1/2), Mason (7)
DAY: @DAV (8/9/10), VCU (1/2), @GW (8/9/10)
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Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-23-2017, 12:55 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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And for those that like checking out the games that make up a teams seed in the A10 tournament:
Figstats Atlantic 10 MBB Seed Possibility Breakdowns
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02-24-2017, 09:00 AM
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Captain
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Probabilities Through games of 2/23:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.82% 40.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
VA Commonwealth 40.18% 57.47% 2.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.62
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 68.88% 24.45% 5.61% 0.91% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.35% 26.93% 60.20% 7.36% 2.74% 0.31% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 1.65% 12.64% 74.90% 7.97% 1.99% 0.73% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.99
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 1.40% 7.41% 41.25% 39.64% 8.45% 1.57% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.52
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 1.29% 2.89% 39.67% 29.49% 22.60% 3.76% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.94% 5.60% 21.14% 16.93% 27.05% 28.34% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.49
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.90% 1.51% 4.67% 34.66% 40.00% 18.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.66
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 2.62% 16.53% 27.51% 49.13% 3.80% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 9.34
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.65% 29.75% 27.48% 22.14% 16.99% 12.19
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 28.83% 24.66% 26.96% 19.38% 12.37
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 25.54% 23.24% 27.48% 23.69% 12.49
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12.08% 24.56% 23.42% 39.94% 12.91
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Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-24-2017, 09:32 AM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 2/23:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.82% 40.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
VA Commonwealth 40.18% 57.47% 2.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.62
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 68.88% 24.45% 5.61% 0.91% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.35% 26.93% 60.20% 7.36% 2.74% 0.31% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 1.65% 12.64% 74.90% 7.97% 1.99% 0.73% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.99
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 1.40% 7.41% 41.25% 39.64% 8.45% 1.57% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.52
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 1.29% 2.89% 39.67% 29.49% 22.60% 3.76% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.94% 5.60% 21.14% 16.93% 27.05% 28.34% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.49
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.90% 1.51% 4.67% 34.66% 40.00% 18.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.66
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 2.62% 16.53% 27.51% 49.13% 3.80% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 9.34
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.65% 29.75% 27.48% 22.14% 16.99% 12.19
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 28.83% 24.66% 26.96% 19.38% 12.37
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 25.54% 23.24% 27.48% 23.69% 12.49
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12.08% 24.56% 23.42% 39.94% 12.91
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LIBob, check your PMs.
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Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-24-2017, 11:51 AM
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Captain
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Much thanks to Figgie for catching a small error.
Probabilities Through games of 2/23:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Davidson 59.77% 40.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
Dayton 40.23% 57.38% 2.39% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.62
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 68.73% 24.62% 5.42% 1.01% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39
Fordham 0.00% 2.39% 26.93% 59.85% 7.42% 2.92% 0.36% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 1.77% 12.84% 74.66% 7.90% 1.96% 0.75% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.98
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.37% 7.48% 39.54% 35.24% 12.66% 3.06% 0.62% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.62
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 1.27% 3.04% 38.40% 29.74% 21.80% 4.73% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.85
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.93% 5.53% 19.88% 17.14% 19.18% 37.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.60
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.26% 3.38% 8.74% 27.53% 33.14% 26.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.81% 1.33% 3.85% 19.99% 39.77% 34.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.99
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.67% 26.56% 21.72% 15.05% 12.15
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.28% 22.73% 27.83% 20.16% 12.39
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.74% 27.34% 27.99% 26.94% 12.64
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.32% 23.38% 22.46% 37.85% 12.82
So, as a result of last night's GW win, the participants for Wednesday all set ( Duquesne, St. Louis, St. Joe's and UMass). Just the matchups are TBD.
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2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-24-2017, 12:14 PM
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Major General
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Think you might want to unsort that table. It's alphabetical right now.
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02-24-2017, 12:27 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by priceg75
Think you might want to unsort that table. It's alphabetical right now.
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You don't believe that VCU's average seed is 12.82?
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Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-24-2017, 12:47 PM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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Originally Posted by priceg75
Think you might want to unsort that table. It's alphabetical right now.
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Done, sorry about that.
Probabilities Through games of 2/23:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.77% 40.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
VA Commonwealth 40.23% 57.38% 2.39% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.62
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 68.73% 24.62% 5.42% 1.01% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.39% 26.93% 59.85% 7.42% 2.92% 0.36% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 1.77% 12.84% 74.66% 7.90% 1.96% 0.75% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.98
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.37% 7.48% 39.54% 35.24% 12.66% 3.06% 0.62% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.62
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 1.27% 3.04% 38.40% 29.74% 21.80% 4.73% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.85
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.93% 5.53% 19.88% 17.14% 19.18% 37.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.60
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.26% 3.38% 8.74% 27.53% 33.14% 26.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.81% 1.33% 3.85% 19.99% 39.77% 34.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.99
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.67% 26.56% 21.72% 15.05% 12.15
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.28% 22.73% 27.83% 20.16% 12.39
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.74% 27.34% 27.99% 26.94% 12.64
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.32% 23.38% 22.46% 37.85% 12.82
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Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-24-2017, 01:22 PM
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General
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Join Date: Oct 2001
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Nobody told me there was going to be math on this test.
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02-24-2017, 03:34 PM
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1st Lieutenant
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Done, sorry about that.
Probabilities Through games of 2/23:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.77% 40.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.40
VA Commonwealth 40.23% 57.38% 2.39% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.62
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 68.73% 24.62% 5.42% 1.01% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.39% 26.93% 59.85% 7.42% 2.92% 0.36% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 1.77% 12.84% 74.66% 7.90% 1.96% 0.75% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.98
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 1.37% 7.48% 39.54% 35.24% 12.66% 3.06% 0.62% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.62
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 1.27% 3.04% 38.40% 29.74% 21.80% 4.73% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.85
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.93% 5.53% 19.88% 17.14% 19.18% 37.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.60
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.26% 3.38% 8.74% 27.53% 33.14% 26.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.71
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.81% 1.33% 3.85% 19.99% 39.77% 34.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.99
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.67% 26.56% 21.72% 15.05% 12.15
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.28% 22.73% 27.83% 20.16% 12.39
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.74% 27.34% 27.99% 26.94% 12.64
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.32% 23.38% 22.46% 37.85% 12.82
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St Joes, Duquesne, UMass, and SLU kick out of the league? They have 0% chance of finishing anywhere. I'm good with that tho
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02-24-2017, 04:19 PM
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Academy Doolie
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Scroll to the right to see the last 4 teams' seed chances.
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02-25-2017, 12:05 AM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Coin Flip Update as of games 2/24:
Code:
1. Dayton 14- 2 : 0-0 52.19 47.81
2. VCU 13- 2 : 0-0 47.81 49.45 2.73
3. Richmond 10- 5 : 1-0 59.62 24.87 8.56 5.67 1.26 0.02
4. Rhode Island 10- 5 : 0-1 2.73 32.11 52.55 9.90 2.09 0.59 0.02
5. St. Bonaventure 9- 6 : 0-0 3.71 14.58 56.53 14.38 5.86 3.36 1.50 0.09
6. George Mason 8- 7 : 1-0 1.71 6.11 9.54 33.53 20.20 18.77 8.54 1.59
7. La Salle 8- 7 : 0-1 0.09 1.31 8.12 25.46 36.33 20.79 6.35 1.56
8. Fordham 7- 8 : 0-0 0.02 0.56 1.97 6.92 15.14 24.76 31.31 19.31
9. George Washington 7- 8 : 0-0 0.01 5.31 10.77 16.99 21.55 16.33 29.05
10. Davidson 7- 9 : 0-0 0.06 1.18 3.64 10.73 35.98 48.41
11. Saint Louis 4-11 : 0-0 56.33 25.95 12.72 5.01
12. Massachusetts 3-12 : 2-1 10.55 26.07 36.33 27.05
13. Duquesne 3-12 : 1-0 16.33 30.80 27.56 25.31
14. Saint Joseph's 3-12 : 0-2 16.80 17.17 23.39 42.64
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02-25-2017, 11:36 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/24:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 65.31% 34.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.35
VA Commonwealth 34.69% 62.99% 2.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.68
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 68.91% 24.26% 5.54% 1.05% 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.39
Rhode Island 0.00% 2.32% 26.89% 59.98% 7.60% 2.92% 0.24% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 12.92% 75.35% 7.83% 1.68% 0.47% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.97
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 1.51% 7.28% 39.51% 34.80% 14.01% 2.61% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.61
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 1.30% 2.97% 38.62% 31.10% 22.05% 3.36% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.98% 6.16% 20.88% 19.55% 18.16% 34.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.51
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.28% 3.79% 10.02% 33.03% 34.88% 17.98% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.52
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.13% 1.04% 10.85% 40.92% 47.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.34
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.80% 26.55% 21.54% 15.11% 12.15
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 29.21% 22.77% 27.57% 20.45% 12.39
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.54% 27.37% 28.21% 26.88% 12.64
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.45% 23.31% 22.68% 37.56% 12.81
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02-25-2017, 04:14 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Yes, I would love to win A-10 regular season outright, plus the tourney.
However, if we are not the #1 tourney seed it could be a small blessing in disguise on our path to the A-10 championship game. A good chance Richmond will end up the #3 seed, and I feel much better playing them as the #2 seed and beating them for the second time this season, than having to play the #4 or #5 Seed Rhode Island or St. Bonny and having to beat them for the 3rd time this season.
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02-25-2017, 07:29 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Coin Flip Probabilities after games on 2/25:
Code:
1. Dayton 14- 2 : 0-0 62.50 37.50
2. VCU 13- 3 : 0-0 37.50 57.81 4.69
3. Richmond 11- 5 : 1-0 65.04 27.76 5.27 1.93
4. Rhode Island 11- 5 : 0-1 4.69 28.51 60.53 6.25 0.02
5. St. Bonaventure 10- 6 : 0-0 1.56 9.38 80.08 7.32 1.66
6. George Mason 8- 7 : 1-0 0.20 2.33 2.93 46.58 19.38 22.39 5.10 1.07
7. La Salle 8- 7 : 0-1 2.73 30.47 43.95 16.82 4.47 1.56
8. George Washington 7- 8 : 0-0 2.73 11.04 18.85 22.78 17.65 26.95
9. Fordham 7- 9 : 1-1 2.54 13.99 22.73 33.01 27.73
10. Davidson 7- 9 : 1-1 0.10 2.17 15.28 39.77 42.68
11. Saint Louis 5-11 : 0-0 94.17 5.46 0.37
12. Massachusetts 3-12 : 0-0 3.12 46.88 35.94 14.06
13. Saint Joseph's 3-13 : 0-0 15.62 32.81 51.56
14. Duquesne 3-13 : 0-0 2.70 32.04 30.88 34.38
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02-25-2017, 07:46 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
Yes, I would love to win A-10 regular season outright, plus the tourney.
However, if we are not the #1 tourney seed it could be a small blessing in disguise on our path to the A-10 championship game. A good chance Richmond will end up the #3 seed, and I feel much better playing them as the #2 seed and beating them for the second time this season, than having to play the #4 or #5 Seed Rhode Island or St. Bonny and having to beat them for the 3rd time this season.
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In Flyer history since 1949-50, we have played an opponent 3 times in a year 34 times. Of those 34 times, 12 times we won the first 2 games. Of those 12, we won the third game 9 of those times. The 3 losses was Xavier in 1958, Loyola Illinois in 1992 and Duquesne in 2009. Last time was Bonnies in 2015 and we swept them 3-0.
10 times we split the first 2 games, and we won 5 of the 3rd games. Of the 5 we lost, 4 of them was Xavier and 1 was Saint Louis.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-25-2017, 08:05 PM
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Captain
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Probabilities Through games of 2/25:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 71.21% 28.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.29
VA Commonwealth 28.80% 67.89% 3.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 71.75% 26.61% 1.51% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.30
Rhode Island 0.00% 3.32% 24.81% 69.22% 2.22% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.72
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 3.77% 90.96% 4.70% 0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.02
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 3.58% 44.94% 37.36% 12.22% 1.46% 0.26% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.63
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.22% 1.14% 42.80% 31.11% 22.59% 1.96% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.81
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.59% 6.15% 22.31% 18.33% 20.26% 32.36% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.49
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.86% 7.79% 31.33% 33.65% 26.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.77
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.96% 15.53% 42.67% 40.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.23
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 91.37% 8.40% 0.23% 0.00% 11.09
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.97% 47.56% 33.56% 14.91% 12.59
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.66% 26.44% 25.25% 43.65% 13.08
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.60% 40.96% 41.44% 13.24
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02-26-2017, 10:21 AM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Feb 2013
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I'm all for winning the VCU game, the @GW game and locking our spot in. At that point A-10 Tourney seedings don't matter. We have the outright title and we can play the A-10 Tournament in a vacuum. A little mini-season to win the Championship in. As long we don't lose the 8/9 game we are the lock of locks. Goal 1: Outright league title. Goal 2: A-10 Tournament title. Then i like to break the Dance into 4 team Tournaments. Goal 3: Make the Sweet Sixteen. Goal 4: Make the Final Four.
Goal 5: Win the National Title and cut down the nets.
My personal Goal 6: Drink a 6 pack between the start and finish of "One shining moment"
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02-26-2017, 10:32 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
My personal Goal 6: Drink a 6 pack between the start and finish of "One shining moment"
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I still have my beer bong from the good old days. Will hold 3 at a time!
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02-26-2017, 06:31 PM
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Captain
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Probabilities Through games of 2/26:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 73.11% 26.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27
VA Commonwealth 26.89% 69.22% 3.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.77
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 71.74% 26.97% 1.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.30
Rhode Island 0.00% 3.89% 24.28% 69.96% 1.87% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.70
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 3.08% 94.98% 1.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.99
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 49.40% 20.94% 25.17% 3.70% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.86
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 26.61% 33.05% 36.55% 3.57% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.18
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.86% 19.74% 35.80% 10.13% 11.57% 20.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.72
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.32% 8.53% 22.49% 37.94% 28.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.82
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 1.69% 5.66% 43.22% 49.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.40
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 88.02% 11.39% 0.59% 0.00% 11.13
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.58% 63.41% 28.03% 0.99% 12.22
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.40% 20.11% 22.50% 53.00% 13.24
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.10% 48.89% 46.01% 13.41
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02-26-2017, 06:49 PM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Feb 2013
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Figgie and LIBob, thanks for doing these. Fun to follow. I look forward to the 100% in both first columns in both when i get back from the Arena Wednesday night
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02-26-2017, 07:34 PM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
Goal 5: Win the National Title and cut down the nets.
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Since I am holding a $50 ticket from the Paris Casino in Vegas at 400-1 odds, I like this goal 20,000 times!
Last edited by LIBob; 03-01-2017 at 09:12 AM..
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02-26-2017, 08:14 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Since I am holding a $50 ticket from the Paris Casino in Vegas at 40-1 odds, I like this goal 20,000 times!
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That's a lot of dimes!
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
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02-28-2017, 11:10 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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After Davidson beats Bonnies, the top 4 teams are defined, just seeds up in the air. Dayton, VCU, Richmond and URI.
Code:
1. Dayton 14- 2 : 0-0 62.50 37.50
2. VCU 13- 3 : 0-0 37.50 57.81 4.69
3. Richmond 11- 5 : 1-0 67.19 32.81
4. Rhode Island 11- 5 : 0-1 4.69 28.12 67.19
5. St. Bonaventure 10- 7 : 0-0 87.50 10.16 2.34
6. George Washington 8- 8 : 2-1 12.50 22.66 22.27 15.23 7.81 19.53
7. La Salle 8- 8 : 1-1 31.25 30.47 21.48 7.42 9.38
8. George Mason 8- 8 : 1-2 29.69 23.93 32.71 9.77 3.91
9. Davidson 8- 9 : 0-0 0.78 7.81 19.53 42.19 29.69
10. Fordham 7- 9 : 0-0 5.47 13.18 11.04 32.81 37.50
11. Saint Louis 5-11 : 0-0 92.14 7.32 0.54
12. Massachusetts 4-12 : 0-0 6.25 62.50 28.12 3.12
13. Saint Joseph's 3-13 : 0-0 6.25 40.62 53.12
14. Duquesne 3-13 : 0-0 1.61 23.93 30.71 43.75
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-28-2017, 11:13 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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Would love to see UD #1 and Richmond #4.
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03-01-2017, 07:42 AM
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Brigadier General
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Join Date: Feb 2013
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
Would love to see UD #1 and Richmond #4.
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Rhode Island wins out and Richmond loses to UMass on the road tonight, you(I) get our wish. No chance Richmond loses at home to SLU.
Still muddled for that 8-9 game but it looks like St. Bonaventure-Rhody/Richmond will be the 4-5 game.
Lock it and throw away the key. We get the #1 seed tonight. I believe we want Rhode Island on the other side with VCU not Richmond. Richmond does not have a nasty banger down low, Rhode Island does, and Rhode Island has WAY more overall talent. Go Rams! Go Minutemen!
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03-01-2017, 07:47 AM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Since I am holding a $50 ticket from the Paris Casino in Vegas at 40-1 odds, I like this goal 20,000 times!
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Or 2,000... but who's counting.
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03-01-2017, 08:57 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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Yes, Figgie is correct, the top 4 seeds are set, just the order remains in doubt. Hopefully, with the next update we can talk about how the top seed is set.
Probabilities Through games of 2/28:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 72.69% 27.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27
VA Commonwealth 27.31% 69.03% 3.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.76
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 70.54% 29.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.29
Rhode Island 0.00% 3.65% 25.80% 70.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.67
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 96.02% 3.98% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.04
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 48.45% 21.54% 25.68% 2.66% 1.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.88
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.72% 32.50% 36.01% 5.30% 0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.22
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.98% 19.57% 34.60% 10.11% 2.80% 28.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.75
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.14% 8.15% 18.31% 27.60% 43.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.03
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 3.22% 9.89% 61.64% 25.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.08
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 87.57% 11.83% 0.59% 0.00% 11.13
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.30% 63.71% 27.10% 0.89% 12.21
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.13% 19.76% 24.14% 51.97% 13.24
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.69% 48.17% 47.14% 13.42
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03-01-2017, 08:58 AM
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Captain
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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Originally Posted by priceg75
Or 2,000... but who's counting.
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A Mistyping, it actually is 400-1.
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03-01-2017, 11:42 AM
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1st Lieutenant
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
Would love to see UD #1 and Richmond #4.
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agreed in theory...but URI would provide us with ANOTHER top 50 win if they stay there...so that could jump a seed line. Both scenarios are fine by me.
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03-01-2017, 12:05 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by LIBob
A Mistyping, it actually is 400-1.
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I thought 40-1 were pretty low odds. You going to buy a round at Kramer's when we win and bring back the trophy that was here last week?
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03-01-2017, 12:38 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by LIBob
Yes, Figgie is correct,
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Was there any doubt?
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03-01-2017, 11:46 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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A10 Champions!
Code:
1. Dayton 15- 2 : 0-0 100.00
2. VCU 13- 4 : 0-0 87.50 12.50
3. Richmond 12- 5 : 1-0 62.50 37.50
4. Rhode Island 12- 5 : 0-1 12.50 25.00 62.50
5. St. Bonaventure 10- 7 : 0-0 75.00 25.00
6. George Washington 9- 8 : 2-0 25.00 43.75 12.50 12.50 6.25
7. George Mason 9- 8 : 0-2 25.00 62.50 12.50
8. La Salle 8- 9 : 1-0 6.25 18.75 50.00 25.00
9. Davidson 8- 9 : 0-1 6.25 25.00 43.75 25.00
10. Fordham 7-10 : 0-0 50.00 50.00
11. Saint Louis 6-11 : 0-0 100.00
12. Massachusetts 4-13 : 0-0 75.00 25.00
13. Saint Joseph's 3-14 : 0-0 50.00 50.00
14. Duquesne 3-14 : 0-0 25.00 25.00 50.00
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03-02-2017, 12:15 AM
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Colonel
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100% looks good!
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03-02-2017, 12:20 AM
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Major
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03-02-2017, 07:16 AM
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Enjoy that 100% in the upper left corner, BRob2Perryman3!
Probabilities Through games of 3/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 98.62% 1.38% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.01
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 92.68% 7.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.07
Rhode Island 0.00% 1.38% 5.94% 92.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.91
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 92.86% 7.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.07
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.15% 67.29% 14.39% 8.52% 2.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.32
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.38% 74.44% 11.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.97
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 11.18% 9.98% 70.29% 0.00% 8.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.85
Davidson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.20% 10.01% 66.13% 22.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.10
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 31.22% 68.78% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.69
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 11.00
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 66.85% 33.15% 0.00% 12.33
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 33.15% 13.72% 53.14% 13.20
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 53.14% 46.86% 13.47
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03-02-2017, 09:56 AM
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Is this the first A10 regular season we have won by ourselves?
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03-02-2017, 09:57 AM
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1st Lieutenant
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Originally Posted by jack72
Is this the first A10 regular season we have won by ourselves?
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yes, first outright win in 22 years
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03-02-2017, 10:05 AM
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03-02-2017, 10:07 AM
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Major General
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Probably playing LaSalle/Davidson winner in Round 1 and Rhode Island/St. Bona winner in Round 2.
That draw sucks.
VCU meanwhile will have George Mason/ Fordham winner in Round 1 and Richmond/GW winner in Round 2.
I am happy we finally won a regular season title, but look at that and tell me who is getting the better end of the stick in Pittsburgh.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-02-2017, 10:08 AM
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looks like we play the winner of LaSalle/Davidson?
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03-02-2017, 10:21 AM
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I don't want to play VCU again, especially on a neutral court.
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I shaved my balls for this?
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03-02-2017, 11:02 AM
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Terrible draw. @GW will be tough. I stated before the one team I would not want to play in the quarters is LaSalle. We got them early in the year but they have all the size and talent to give us fits. Hopefully the guys understand that the regular season isn't over yet. More work needs to be done.
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03-02-2017, 11:35 AM
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As Archie would say, you play with the cards you're dealt. No excuses. The Flyers can play with -- and beat -- any team in conference, as they've shown with a 15-2 record. I'm not saying this is the best draw; I'm just saying it's wasted energy to worry about it. If you've got confidence in what got you here, then you're sure as heck not going to back down from challenges on the road ahead.
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03-02-2017, 01:15 PM
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If we're concerned playing teams in the A-10 tournament, how are we going to play guys in the NCAA tournament? You play who you play. Sure, some matchups are better than others, but where the rubber meets the hardwood, only one thing matters and that's the final score.
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03-02-2017, 01:17 PM
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LaSalle is a complete dumpster fire. Richmond and their cutting back door offense worries me but they will be on the other side of the bracket. Sure playing a Rhody/ Bona winner in the semi's isnt ideal but to cut down the nets you are going to have to beat these guys eventually. We are the #1 seed and the favorite going in. This is too great of a season to get my undies in a wad over a potential matchup with LaSalle. LaSalle checks out when they get down and have too many transfers with no chemistry that look to "get theirs"
Outside of VCU and Rhode Island....possibly Richmond, i doubt we will be tested
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-02-2017, 01:44 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
If we're concerned playing teams in the A-10 tournament, how are we going to play guys in the NCAA tournament? You play who you play. Sure, some matchups are better than others, but where the rubber meets the hardwood, only one thing matters and that's the final score.
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Yes, you play who you play, but some teams have more big play potential than others. Davidson has Gibbs and Aldridge, either of whom (or both) could go for 30+ at any time. LaSalle still has Jordan Price. St. Bonaventure has Adams and Mobley. Rhody has... overcome their coaching at times.
The other side, I just don't see the playmakers other than TJ Cline that are going to worry VCU. And even then Richmond doesn't have much besides him. VCU only lost once, to Fordham in OT, to those 4 other teams on their side.
I would just be pleased if VCU didn't make it so easily to the final, but I don't see anyone stopping them. On our side, one guy goes bonkers and we have an off night and we're done.
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03-02-2017, 01:53 PM
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Captain
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
LaSalle is a complete dumpster fire. Richmond and their cutting back door offense worries me but they will be on the other side of the bracket. Sure playing a Rhody/Bona winner in the semi's isnt ideal but to cut down the nets you are going to have to beat these guys eventually. We are the #1 seed and the favorite going in. This is too great of a season to get my undies in a wad over a potential matchup with LaSalle. LaSalle checks out when they get down and have too many transfers with no chemistry that look to "get theirs"
Outside of VCU and Rhode Island....possibly Richmond, i doubt we will be tested
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Where did I get my undies in wad? I can only assume that you are referencing my post as I was the only one that brought up LaSalle.
I make a general statement that our draw as #1 seed is not as easy as you would want in terms of matchups. UD is the regular season champion so of course I feel confident going into any game with an A-10 opponent.
My point was not to overlook LaSalle or GW for that matter. The worst thing anyone can do is act like they got it all figured out, there is still work to be done.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-02-2017, 01:55 PM
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Captain
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
LaSalle is a complete dumpster fire. Richmond and their cutting back door offense worries me but they will be on the other side of the bracket. Sure playing a Rhody/Bona winner in the semi's isnt ideal but to cut down the nets you are going to have to beat these guys eventually. We are the #1 seed and the favorite going in. This is too great of a season to get my undies in a wad over a potential matchup with LaSalle. LaSalle checks out when they get down and have too many transfers with no chemistry that look to "get theirs"
Outside of VCU and Rhode Island....possibly Richmond, i doubt we will be tested
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Don't be upset with me just because I have a cooler username. It's not my fault that Ramod and Waleskowski would clean B Rob and Perrymans clock in a 2v2.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-02-2017, 05:08 PM
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Brigadier General
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NOW thats laughable. I actually sat on the tunnel last night. Keith was down there with his son. Nice guy.
I love Wally and Ramod but lets not get carried away. Nobody is beating The King of Caroms and B-Rob 2 on 2.
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03-02-2017, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by RamodWaleskowski
Don't be upset with me just because I have a cooler username. It's not my fault that Ramod and Waleskowski would clean B Rob and Perrymans clock in a 2v2.
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Snowflake vs Butterfly...
I'll take 'Change the Channel' for $1000 Alex.
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03-02-2017, 07:29 PM
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Captain
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03-02-2017, 10:49 PM
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We just beat VCU with a bunch of foul trouble, and we are supposed to be worried about playing LaSalle? LaSalle will not beat Davidson, and unless we lay down we will easily beat anyone, including VCU.
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03-04-2017, 04:12 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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After the 2pm Saturday games:
Code:
1. Dayton 15- 2 : 0-0 100.00
2. VCU 14- 4 : 0-0 100.00
3. Richmond 12- 5 : 1-0 75.00 25.00
4. Rhode Island 12- 5 : 0-1 25.00 75.00
5. St. Bonaventure 10- 7 : 0-0 75.00 25.00
6. George Washington 9- 8 : 0-0 25.00 50.00 25.00
7. George Mason 9- 9 : 1-0 50.00 50.00
8. La Salle 9- 9 : 0-1 25.00 25.00 50.00
9. Davidson 8- 9 : 0-0 100.00
10. Fordham 7-11 : 0-0 100.00
11. Saint Louis 6-11 : 0-0 100.00
12. Massachusetts 4-13 : 0-0 100.00
13. Saint Joseph's 4-14 : 0-0 100.00
14. Duquesne 3-15 : 0-0 100.00
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03-04-2017, 06:14 PM
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Brigadier General
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OK, I think I have this right based on the 2pm and 4pm finals.
With a UD win:
8. GMU
9. Davidson
(doesn't matter if Davidson or URI win)
With a UD (shudder) loss:
8. LaSalle
9. Davidson
(doesn't matter if Davidson or URI win)
I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong. Probably more than once.
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03-04-2017, 06:16 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Code:
1. Dayton 15- 2 : 0-0 100.00
2. VCU 14- 4 : 0-0 100.00
3. Richmond 13- 5 : 0-0 100.00
4. Rhode Island 12- 5 : 0-0 100.00
5. St. Bonaventure 11- 7 : 0-0 100.00
6. George Washington 9- 8 : 0-0 75.00 25.00
7. George Mason 9- 9 : 1-0 50.00 50.00
8. La Salle 9- 9 : 0-1 25.00 25.00 50.00
9. Davidson 8- 9 : 0-0 100.00
10. Fordham 7-11 : 0-0 100.00
11. Saint Louis 6-12 : 0-0 100.00
12. Massachusetts 4-14 : 2-0 100.00
13. Saint Joseph's 4-14 : 0-2 100.00
14. Duquesne 3-15 : 0-0 100.00
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03-04-2017, 06:25 PM
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Brigadier General
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Cool. George Mason/ LaSalle vs. Davidson.
Ill be rooting for GMU/LaSalle against Davidson.
Im tired of Jack Gibbs
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03-04-2017, 06:36 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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So, 1 through 5 and 9 through 14 are set.
It's 6/7/8 that is determining things.
1. Dayton
2. VCU
3. Richmond
4. Rhode Island
5. St Bonaventure
9. Davidson
10. Fordham
11. Saint Louis
12. Massachusetts
13. St Josephs
14 Duquesne
GW, La Salle, Mason and Davison can tie at 9-9. Or, 3 will, or just 2.
GW (vs Las 0-1, vs. GM 2-0, vs Dav 1-1) (2-1 vs Las/GM, 3-2 vs Las/Gm/Dav)
Las (vs GW 1-0, vs GM 0-1, vs Dav 1-0) (1-1 vs GW/GM, 2-1 vs Las/GW/Dav, 1-1 vs GM/Dav)
GM (vs GW 0-2, vs Las 1-0, vs Dav 1-0) (1-2 vs GW/Las, 2-2 vs Las/GW/Dav, 2-0 vs Las/Dav)
Dav (vs GW 1-1, vs Las 0-1, vs GM 0-1) (vs Las/GM 0-2, vs all 1-3)
UD URI = GW Las GM
UD DAV = Las GW GM
GW URI = GW GM Las
GW DAV = GW GM Las
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-04-2017, 06:38 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
Cool. George Mason/LaSalle vs. Davidson.
Ill be rooting for GMU/LaSalle against Davidson.
Im tired of Jack Gibbs
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I could see him going off for 45 points against us, banking in 30' desperation shots. Tired of him as well.
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03-05-2017, 01:22 AM
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Captain
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Originally Posted by RamodWaleskowski
Terrible draw. @GW will be tough. I stated before the one team I would not want to play in the quarters is LaSalle. We got them early in the year but they have all the size and talent to give us fits. Hopefully the guys understand that the regular season isn't over yet. More work needs to be done.
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Ehhhhh hmmm... For all of those that forgot. A couple years ago we were "comfortably in" only to find out we were the last **** team in!!!
The loss to GW wasn't a back breaker but if we follow it up with another stinker in the quarters....We will be one ****ed off fan base come selection Sunday.
As I mentioned, there is still work to be done.
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