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  #1  
Old 02-27-2019, 03:07 PM
Gazoo's Avatar
Gazoo Gazoo is offline
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An important stat we are quietly courting?

Dayton is 6-3 in road games. Here is a recent track record:

1-10
7-3
8-2
5-6
6-4
2-8
3-7
6-7
4-8
5-6
6-6
2-10
2-11
6-7
7-5
8-4

We have 1 more away game, at 4th place Duquesne. If we win that makes us 7-3, or 0.700. There has been only 1 season since 2004 that we had a better road record than this year's team (if we win) and that was the 2015-2016 team that went 25-8 overall and included Pierre as a senior and Scoochie / Pollard / Davis as juniors.

Why I think this is important is because we don't have a senior laden team. These young guys, with 70% of the minutes coming from freshmen and sophomores, and after getting scorched on the road last year, have been pretty well unfazed by the road games. Is the A10 down? Sure. Is it easy to win on the road against ANYONE? No.

I realize it's another moral victory, but a team with only 1 senior that wins consistently on the road -- even more consistently than some past "great" teams -- really bodes well for next year. This isn't your BG-era teams who built a fat record by going 18-0 at home.

I don't think this team gets enough credit for resilience and toughness.
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  #2  
Old 02-27-2019, 06:04 PM
SLUFLYER SLUFLYER is offline
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I'll take it a step further and suggest that it's more than just a moral victory.

I'm on record as saying that I don't believe this team has a realistic shot to still earn an at-large, mostly due to the lack of/amount of quality wins (really Quad 2).

However, there are some things on our resume, coupled with a few things that could still happen/help, that give me reason to at least examine/reconsider:

- Road wins against the Bonnies and Rhody could be come Quad 2 wins, moving us to 2-5 in Quad 1 and 2-3 in Quad. Compared to Butler who is currently 2-7 in Quad 1 and 5-5 in Quad 2. Is that enough of a comparison, while still lacking in total games in those Quads, to suggest UD belongs IN over a Butler? How much better is 7-12 vs 4-8? Particularly if UD has a head to head win over Butler?
- Our overall Road and Neutral Record is very strong. Historically, this has been a factor including a team over another
- The newness of the NET and how it plays into or dictates within the Selection Committee. Who really knows without ANY historical comparison?
- Finishing strong, would have won like 8 of last 10 or 10 of last 12, whatever it actually is.
- Very respectable Non-con SOS of 70. How solid was your schedule that you "control"? I've heard this from previous committees as to why a team might get left out (weak non-con SOS).
- Respectable "other" metrics - KenPom, RPI, BPI, etc.
- Recent tournament inclusion and success (brand perception)
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  #3  
Old 02-27-2019, 06:33 PM
Lowd&ProUD Lowd&ProUD is offline
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I'm convinced our road record is why we're still in the conversation for an at-large bid.

One consistent theme among the tournament selection committee is that they look down on teams that play like a tourney team at home and a cream puff on the road. No home games in the tourney. (Unless of course you're Dayton playing in the First Four!)

Could be a whole heck of a lot riding on that game against Duquesne.
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