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  #601  
Old 03-09-2016, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
SMC has 18 200+ RPI wins and Gonzaga has 16 of those type wins. Neither team has a top50 win.

So I asked Jerry Palm. He tweeted back that since 1996 that most 200+ wins for an at-large team is 14 with UAB in 2006.

No way either of these teams gets an at-large bid.
I know nothing about SMC, and I have no idea if they will get in, but the Dance Card still has them in as of today.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm



Edit: I looked them up...rpi 35...sos 159...1-25 0-1...26-50 0-0...51-100 6-1.

OOC SOS 155...only played 1 road or neutral OOC game: at Cal, lost by 4.

The big thing IMO is that they only have 4 losses, I have no idea if they will get in.

Last edited by ud2; 03-09-2016 at 12:12 PM..
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  #602  
Old 03-09-2016, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by DaytonInsider View Post
I saw the match up also and was pretty happy with that scenario. USC is a game we can control and then swing for the fences and kick zaviers butt.
The tournament is all about matchups. Xavier is just an absolutely wretched matchup for UD. Sometimes you have to put the RED colored glasses away. I don't want to be anywhere near X on the bracket.

Team's like UConn and Cinci are who I would love to see in the first round. They want to pound the ball on the ground and they can't shoot. That's perfect for the pack-line defense we play.
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  #603  
Old 03-09-2016, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I know nothing about SMC, and I have no idea if they will get in, but the Dance Card still has them in as of today.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm



Edit: I looked them up...rpi 35...sos 159...1-25 0-1...26-50 0-0...51-100 6-1.

The big thing IMO is that they only have 4 losses, I have no idea if they will get in.
After feeling like UD got screwed so many times before I feel like they don't deserve a bid, but, to me there is not nearly enough emphasis put on just winning games. Teams that win 27, 28, 29 games are winners and should be in. We already know how good a 9-9 ACC school is. They had their chance. I want to see teams who are winners.
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  #604  
Old 03-09-2016, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
The tournament is all about matchups. Xavier is just an absolutely wretched matchup for UD. Sometimes you have to put the RED colored glasses away. I don't want to be anywhere near X on the bracket.

Team's like UConn and Cinci are who I would love to see in the first round. They want to pound the ball on the ground and they can't shoot. That's perfect for the pack-line defense we play.
Really just going off of ESPN but I would rather face Xavier than any of the other #2 Seeds.

Why should I take my Red glasses off in March? I just put these suckers on and plan on wearing them all month!!!!
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  #605  
Old 03-09-2016, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by DaytonInsider View Post
Why should I take my Red glasses off in March? I just put these suckers on and plan on wearing them all month!!!!
You keep 'em on DInsider cause we're gonna need 'em.
The forecast is for bright, real bright...so f'in bright we gotta wear shades...

Red Ones (see, he got the message!)
Go Flyers!

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  #606  
Old 03-09-2016, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by DaytonInsider View Post
Really just going off of ESPN but I would rather face Xavier than any of the other #2 Seeds.

Why should I take my Red glasses off in March? I just put these suckers on and plan on wearing them all month!!!!
I don't want to face Xavier again -- we match up poorly and they simply are a much better team -- hate to write that but is the truth.

Really important to be a 6 seed and possibly face a 3 in 2nd round. I think Dayton struggles versus almost all 1 and 2 seeds (so 7-10 seeds would be bad for 2nd round).
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  #607  
Old 03-09-2016, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
I don't want to face Xavier again -- we match up poorly and they simply are a much better team -- hate to write that but is the truth.

Really important to be a 6 seed and possibly face a 3 in 2nd round. I think Dayton struggles versus almost all 1 and 2 seeds (so 7-10 seeds would be bad for 2nd round).
I want to face them in the round of 16 where they seem to choke and we seem to shine.
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  #608  
Old 03-09-2016, 05:30 PM
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Lot of Bravado augering to play steam that flat blew us out of the gym back when we seemed to be on a roll. The way weare playing and the way X is playing now I think we'd do worse yet . I'd like to avoid them like the clap.
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  #609  
Old 03-10-2016, 04:50 PM
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My gut says that we are sitting at a 6 seed right now. If we lose to Richmond we slip to a 7 or maybe 8 (yikes). If we win 2 games we stay at a 6. If we win the tourney, we move to a 5.
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  #610  
Old 03-10-2016, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by UD93 Steve View Post
My gut says that we are sitting at a 6 seed right now. If we lose to Richmond we slip to a 7 or maybe 8 (yikes). If we win 2 games we stay at a 6. If we win the tourney, we move to a 5.
What if we win one game?
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  #611  
Old 03-10-2016, 05:28 PM
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Iowa and Duke both lost today, a projected 5 and 4 seed. Iowa with an inexplicable loss to a horrible Illinois team, to cap off losing 6 of their last 8 and 5 of their last 6. And Duke losing to a projected 7 seed in Notre Dame.

Without comparing our resumes, what are the prospects of Dayton passing one or both on the seed line, if we can win a couple of games in Brooklyn? And does Notre Dame jump us?

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  #612  
Old 03-10-2016, 05:43 PM
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It doesn't help that we lost our lone top 25 win today (Iowa) and a win against the field with Vandy losing. Losing to an awful Tennessee may have sent them to the NIT.
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  #613  
Old 03-11-2016, 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
What if we win one game?
Stay at 6.
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  #614  
Old 03-11-2016, 07:25 AM
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Last year I doubted the dance card and they were off by two spots. Sitting at #23 (probable 6 seed). I think we can play our way to a 5 or a 10.
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  #615  
Old 03-11-2016, 07:36 AM
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The committee has already selected the first round of at-large teams-approx 25, who get in on the first ballot. These last couple of games will have very little effect on the seeds. You may see a team who is the last 5 seed go to a 6 with a loss, but you will not see major shifts at this point since 95% of the season is complete. Same goes for the s election of teams. Only the final 4-5 slots are in question at this late date.
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  #616  
Old 03-11-2016, 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
It doesn't help that we lost our lone top 25 win today (Iowa) and a win against the field with Vandy losing. Losing to an awful Tennessee may have sent them to the NIT.
St. Bonnie's crept into the top-25 last night.
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  #617  
Old 03-11-2016, 09:47 AM
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If I recall the interview, as of last night, they have selected the 14 Autobid winners already in the field, and another 33 at large contenders placed into the field. There are 19 autobids still left to be awarded and 21 additional teams "under consideration" for the remaining 2 spots. Now some of those autobid winners will come from teams amongst the 21 under consideration (ie, VCU winning the A10, or SD State winning their title, assuming neither is among the first 33 already placed into the field). The guy said they've already done their first wave of their S-bracket among the 57 teams in the field, but things will teams will get scrubbed and re-scrubbed against each other many times in the coming day.

In short, if you assume UD is among the 33 teams already in the dance, but not yet an autobid winner, then they are already a top 8 seed, and likely not to drop from that no matter what happens today. Its probably also true that they don't have a ton of room to move up, maybe a seed line at most one way or another from where ever they are today, perhaps 2 seed lines up if they win the A10 unless they are already near their peak seed line (ie, lets say the committee already has them on the 5 seed line as of last night and their initial wave, I doubt they could get up to a 3 seed line by winning the A10, too many teams to pass w/ really good resumes at that point, but a low 6 seed to a high 4 seed (if that makes sense, or about 6 spaces on the S-curve) seems possible. Only they know where UD is ranked at the moment, though I'm sure in dark corners, information slips out from time to time. Look no further than Joe Lunardi placing G Mason into his bracket about 15 minutes before the field was announced when Mason was one of the last teams in (as well as one of the last 4 standing)
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  #618  
Old 03-11-2016, 10:04 AM
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It would really be difficult to move more than 4 lines on the S curve at this late date. The committee isn't going to redo the entire seeding based upon one or two games. I would expect that almost all of those seeded at this point don't move more than a couple spaces.
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:04 AM
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Dance Card dropped us to 27 (a 7 seed) today. Don't want to see what a loss to Richmond would do.

Also, teams directly behind us have big games coming up (providence, seton hall, notre dame).

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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  #620  
Old 03-11-2016, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Last year I doubted the dance card and they were off by two spots. Sitting at #23 (probable 6 seed). I think we can play our way to a 5 or a 10.
No way there would be that much movement based upon one game. Remember, it is just one of 31 games played. I think a lot of folks get caught up in recency bias. The committee has made this clear time and again. If we're a mid-6 seed right now, we don't get higher than a 5 nor lower than a 7.
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  #621  
Old 03-11-2016, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by jerseyflyer09 View Post
Dance Card dropped us to 27 (a 7 seed) today. Don't want to see what a loss to Richmond would do.

Also, teams directly behind us have big games coming up (providence, seton hall, notre dame).

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
KPI, which is far more accurate than DC, has the Flyers as a 5 seed.
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:29 AM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/255

Just updated to have UD as a 6-seed playing Monmouth/Vandy winner in Providence. That would be interesting.
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
KPI, which is far more accurate than DC, has the Flyers as a 5 seed.
Didn't know anything was more accurate than dancecard. What is KPI? Can you send link...thanks
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
KPI, which is far more accurate than DC, has the Flyers as a 5 seed.
Nothing is more accurate then Dance Card. Not the actual RPI, not UDPride RPI,not KPI,not BPI,not Lunardi,not Palm and not Joe Schmo in his mom's basement with his spreadsheets,compasses and algebra calculators.

No one. Dance Card is the bible. After nailing our spot last year I'm a believer
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Old 03-11-2016, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by jerseyflyer09 View Post
Didn't know anything was more accurate than dancecard. What is KPI? Can you send link...thanks
http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/...curacy-of-kpi/
Here you go. They were only off an average of 2.73 seed lines. Very impressive. I like DC, but their not as accurate on seeding as KPI.
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  #626  
Old 03-11-2016, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/255

Just updated to have UD as a 6-seed playing Monmouth/Vandy winner in Providence. That would be interesting.
That's Lunardi having fun...the Dayton/Monmouth/Iowa trinity is practically half the field from Orlando, with two of them in the First Four IN Dayton, followed by a match-up with Dayton, in Providence (our new home-away-from-home, says Ed Cooley).
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  #627  
Old 03-11-2016, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../iteration/255

Just updated to have UD as a 6-seed playing Monmouth/Vandy winner in Providence. That would be interesting.
Butler loses and moves up from a 10 to a 9...
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Old 03-11-2016, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Butler loses and moves up from a 10 to a 9...
And Providence, who beat them by 14, dropped from 7 to 8 (though they were 8 a couple versions before).
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Old 03-12-2016, 07:19 AM
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I know it's from the "For Whatever It's Worth Department" but when I just looked at Lunardi's latest projection he has #6 Dayton v. #11 Connecticut or #11 Monmouth in Providence, paired with #3 Miami v. #14 UNC Wilmington.
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Old 03-12-2016, 11:40 AM
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Lunardi should really be ashamed of himself, for deciding to be a shill for the SEC just like the rest of ESPN. Bad enough we have to deal with their bias all football season...

He has Georgia, Alabama, and LSU all in his "next 4 out".

None of these 3 teams are even close. LSU is particularly egregious, with a 91 RPI and 6 losses to RPI 100+ teams. Dance card's closest of these 3 is Georgia, 19 below the cut line.
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Old 03-12-2016, 11:55 AM
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South Carolina isnt going either. Dance Card has them way out
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:37 PM
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When they don't go, it'll be a great chance for them to talk about the SEC on all their bracket shows.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:50 PM
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Happened to notice that this thread has over 53,000 views. I thought good grief that's a lot of activity! Then I thought, that's not so much...I've checked the thread 750 times myself.
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Old 03-12-2016, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Nothing is more accurate then Dance Card. Not the actual RPI, not UDPride RPI,not KPI,not BPI,not Lunardi,not Palm and not Joe Schmo in his mom's basement with his spreadsheets,compasses and algebra calculators.

No one. Dance Card is the bible. After nailing our spot last year I'm a believer
I agree completely, BR2P3. And FWIW, after yesterday's action, DC has us ranked in the 7th quartet, but 2 slots ahead of us is SMU (who won't be in the field), and 3 slots ahead of us is Iowa (who lost in the B1G quarterfinals, has been tanking of late, and lost to us in Orlando). Beat St. Joe today, and we should be a solid 6.
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  #635  
Old 03-12-2016, 01:46 PM
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Louisville ahead of us too. 4 seed not out the realm of possibility yet
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Old 03-12-2016, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Louisville ahead of us too. 4 seed not out the realm of possibility yet
Now it is...I'd be really happy with a 6 take a 7 hope we don't get an 8/9
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Old 03-12-2016, 03:43 PM
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Hopefully we get a 6/7 seed or get under seeded at 10/11. Just avoid the 8/9 game.
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Old 03-12-2016, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by C-time View Post
Hopefully we get a 6/7 seed or get under seeded at 10/11. Just avoid the 8/9 game.
Exactly what I am looking for. I have a feeling about a 7 seed but I can just see us getting an 8/9 match up....either way it's going to be a tough first round especially if we play the way we did today.
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Old 03-12-2016, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Louisville ahead of us too. 4 seed not out the realm of possibility yet
BRob...come one...we will not be a four-seed. We had to win the A-10 tournament to do that.
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Old 03-12-2016, 04:53 PM
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Say hello to the 8/9 game.
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Old 03-12-2016, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by TommyGola View Post
BRob...come one...we will not be a four-seed. We had to win the A-10 tournament to do that.
Perhaps you should check the time stamp of the post
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Old 03-12-2016, 10:58 PM
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Again, for whatever it's worth, but Lunardi's latest projection has #7 Dayton v. #10 Pittsburgh in St. Louis, paired with #2 Xavier v. #15 Green Bay.

He also has #10 Gonzaga playing in Spokane which, for some reason, is being hosted by University of Idaho.

Last edited by MikeF; 03-12-2016 at 11:01 PM..
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Old 03-12-2016, 11:08 PM
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Jerry Palm's latest project has #6 Dayton v. winner of #11 Michigan v. #11 Wichita State in Providence, paired with #3 Miami v. #14 Iona. The thought of Dayton going to Providence just makes me giggle. Thankfully, Palm's project has Providence already knowing their first round opponent!
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Old 03-12-2016, 11:17 PM
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In 2015, Dayton plays in the First Four, located in Dayton, as an 11 seed, then advances to face 6 seed Providence.

In 2016, a team plays in the First Four, located in Dayton, as an 11 seed, then advances to play 6 seed Dayton in Providence.

You unlock this door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension - a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. You've just crossed over into the Twilight Zone.
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Old 03-13-2016, 08:40 AM
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http://www.bracketwag.com/
This guy has a good track record, has us as a 7 seed. I'm OK with that.
But vs Cincinnati? Would the committee do that?
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Old 03-13-2016, 09:23 AM
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Give me UC then X
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Old 03-13-2016, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
http://www.bracketwag.com/
This guy has a good track record, has us as a 7 seed. I'm OK with that.
But vs Cincinnati? Would the committee do that?
You bet they would!
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Old 03-13-2016, 12:16 PM
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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty

Am I reading this right, we are 1 ahead of VCU and 4 ahead of SJU on the s-curve? And if so, who do we want to win today to avoid moving to an 8 seed on the s-curve?
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Old 03-13-2016, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
http://www.bracketwag.com/
This guy has a good track record, has us as a 7 seed. I'm OK with that.
But vs Cincinnati? Would the committee do that?
Remember who they matched us up against in the first round 2 years ago?
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Old 03-13-2016, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
Remember who they matched us up against in the first round 2 years ago?
Great point. Didn't think about that.
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Old 03-13-2016, 02:55 PM
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I remember years ago when Kentucky and Louisville wouldn't play each other the committee matched them up. That was not a coincidence.
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