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01-18-2020, 05:55 PM
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We spent the last 25 years of the last century unranked in the AP poll. We were a load in the 50's
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01-18-2020, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
We spent the last 25 years of the last century unranked in the AP poll. We were a load in the 50's
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The Flyers Elite Eight team of 1984 wasn't ranked?
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01-18-2020, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
The Flyers Elite Eight team of 1984 wasn't ranked?
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That would be correct. We finished the 1974 season ranked #20. Our next ranking was Nov. 28, 2000 at #20. A rather long dry spell, some of the "good old days" were not quite as good as we might have remembered. Had some exciting games against good opponents, but as far as national impact, not so much.
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01-18-2020, 08:27 PM
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UDPride members will converge on the rankings Monday to see the new order. Should be interesting with all the top 10 losses.
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01-18-2020, 08:58 PM
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Food for thought....
Originally Posted by UD62
We spent the last 25 years of the last century unranked in the AP poll. We were a load in the 50's
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True, but college BB in the 50s wasn't what it is today. Because travel was not particularly convenient in those days, as in football, teams played mostly regional opponents. It was hard to compare and rank teams.
And in the `50s black players had just entered top-tier college basketball profoundly changing the game. UD didn't have an African American player until `58 or`59, as I recall; Bob Jones, I think. Today it's almost unusual for a team to have a White player among its top six or seven.
And, of course, because travel is hardly an issue, teams play national schedules making the rankings more meaningful.
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01-18-2020, 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer
And in the `50s black players had just entered top-tier college basketball profoundly changing the game. UD didn't have an African American player until `58 or`59, as I recall; Bob Jones, I think. Today it's almost unusual for a team to have a White player among its top six or seven.
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Actually, Dayton’s first African-American player was Charles “Benny” Jones in 1946, under Coach James Carter. He was on the roster when Blackburn took over in 1947, but he left the program shortly thereafter. Bobby Jones was Blackburn’s first black recruit, in 1958.
A couple of years earlier, Blackburn vigorously recruited Wilt Chamberlain and came oh so close, but we know the rest of that story.
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01-18-2020, 09:50 PM
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We may break the 1956 record of 15 poll appearances. If we stay ranked from now until Mon March 16, which iinm is when the final poll is released, that will be 16 appearances.
Last edited by ud2; 01-18-2020 at 09:54 PM..
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01-18-2020, 10:27 PM
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Since 2000
Appearances in AP top 25
http://collegepollarchive.com/mbaske....cfm?teamid=59
We reached a high of 14 in 2008
We finished 16 in 2003
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01-18-2020, 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
The Flyers Elite Eight team of 1984 wasn't ranked?
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01-18-2020, 11:57 PM
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We were top 25 USA Today which was just getting started and had some panache . I remember everyone at the KU cafeteria back during that season hooting and hollering when it came out.
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01-19-2020, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer
True, but college BB in the 50s wasn't what it is today. Because travel was not particularly convenient in those days, as in football, teams played mostly regional opponents. It was hard to compare and rank teams.
And in the `50s black players had just entered top-tier college basketball profoundly changing the game. UD didn't have an African American player until `58 or`59, as I recall; Bob Jones, I think. Today it's almost unusual for a team to have a White player among its top six or seven.
And, of course, because travel is hardly an issue, teams play national schedules making the rankings more meaningful.
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Coach James Carter was the first UD coach to bring an African American onboard, Charles "Benny" Jones for the 1946-47 season.
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01-19-2020, 09:42 AM
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Here is how the Top 15 did the past week:
1. Zags - W - 1/16, W vs. BYU 1/18 - 2 W's Staying put.
2. Baylor - W - 1/15, W @ Ok St 1/18 - 2 W's staying put.
3. Duke - L - 1/14, L vs #11 Lou 1/18 - 2 L's dropping out of top 10
4. Auburn - L 1/15, L @ Florida 1/18 - 2 L's dropping out of top 10
5. Butler - L 1/15, L @ Depaul 1/18 - 2 L's dropping out of top 10
6. KU - W 1/14 , W @ Texas 1/18 - 2 W's Moving up
7. SDS - W 1/14, W vs Nevad 1/18 - 2 W's Moving up
8. Oregon - L 1/16, W @ Wash 1/18 - 1 W / 1 L - Dropping a couple spots
9. Flo St. - W 1/15, W @ Miami 1/18 - 2 W's Moving up.
10. Kentucky - L 1/15, W @Ark 1/18 - 1 W / 1 L - Might drop 1 or 2 spots
11. Lou - W 1/14, W @ Duke 1/18 - 2 W's - Moving up to Top 5
12. WV - W 1/14, L @ K-State 1/18 - 1 W / 1 L - will drop a couple spots
13. UD - W 1/14, W 1/17 - 2 W's - Moving up.
14. Nova - W 1/14, W 1/18 - 2 W's - Moving up
15. Mich St. - W 1/17 - 1 W - Moving up
Based on the above - Moving into Number 7 spot seems the most likely. If there is bias for Nova or MS - we could wind up 8th or 9th. But should not be any worse than 9th. Still our 2 wins (home / road) were better then Nova's 2 home wins or MS one home win. In any case looks like we will be in the top 10 for the first time since most on this board were born.
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01-19-2020, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Based on the above - Moving into Number 7 spot seems the most likely. If there is bias for Nova or MS - we could wind up 8th or 9th. But should not be any worse than 9th. Still our 2 wins (home / road) were better then Nova's 2 home wins or MS one home win. In any case looks like we will be in the top 10 for the first time since most on this board were born.
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Great summary. Unfortunately I don’t think the AP voters are that diligent. I don’t see Duke moving out of the top 10. I’ll predict the Flyers at 10.
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01-19-2020, 10:38 AM
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Best case we move up 3 spots. Worst we are 12. I say #11
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01-19-2020, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72
Best case we move up 3 spots. Worst we are 12. I say #11
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Hard to argue with 11. Move ahead of WVU and UK. Other top 10 losers move down but not out of top 10. UK could stay at 10. Watching Auburn will be interesting. They probably should not have been at 4 based on their wins but will they drop 7 spots even with 2 losses?
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01-19-2020, 11:17 AM
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Seton Hall May surprise people with a massive jump from 18. Big road win over No. 5 Butler, eight-game winning streak. I see them and Dayton as 10/11 one way or the other.
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01-19-2020, 11:19 AM
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The rankings have shown respect to us this year, and most every media outlet is giving us awesome PR that we’re just not accustomed to having. I think we’re the Cinderella of the regular season and predict a Top 10 rank in both polls.
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01-19-2020, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly
Seton Hall May surprise people with a massive jump from 18. Big road win over No. 5 Butler, eight-game winning streak. I see them and Dayton as 10/11 one way or the other.
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Seton Hall is hard for any team to deal with because they have talent up and down the line-up and they also have a few 7-foot+ guys who are pretty good. I think they will live in the top 10 for the rest of the season.
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01-19-2020, 01:30 PM
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FWIW... The CBS Sports Top 25 and 1 was just updated. Has us at #8 (up 4 spots).
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/
Go Flyers!
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01-19-2020, 01:31 PM
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As long as Powell remains healthy, they're probably a top ten team.
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01-19-2020, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
That would be correct. We finished the 1974 season ranked #20. Our next ranking was Nov. 28, 2000 at #20. A rather long dry spell, some of the "good old days" were not quite as good as we might have remembered. Had some exciting games against good opponents, but as far as national impact, not so much.
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Just to double check, I looked for final rankings of 1984 and you were correct, the Flyers weren't there. But do you know what's crazier? I did the same for 1985 and Villanova isn't in the top 20.
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01-19-2020, 04:51 PM
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That's certainly a drawback of the AP poll, not voting after the regular season ends.
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01-19-2020, 08:24 PM
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The Flyers are 10th in the ESPN Power Rankings, ahead of Duke. https://es.pn/30zjujQ
May be a sign.
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01-19-2020, 11:45 PM
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NET Rankings through Saturday, January 18
Dayton …………..………5
OOC opponents:
Kansas………………..….4 ✗
Colorado…………..…….21 ✗
Saint Mary's………..…..42 ✓
Virginia Tech……….…..44 ✓
Georgia…………....….…72 ✓
North Texas……..………92 ✓
Indiana State…………..97 ✓
Drake………………........139 ✓
North Florida…………...198 ✓
Omaha………………..…..207 ✓
Grambling…………..….…287 ✓
Charleston Southern….296 ✓
Houston Baptist………...346 ✓
A-10:
VCU……………………....…45 ✓
Saint Louis………………..54 ✓
Duquesne………….………55
Richmond…………..………56
Rhode Island……….……..62
Davidson…………...….….113
Si Bonaventure……….….129
George Mason……….…..170
La Salle………………….....173 ✓
UMass……………….....……176 ✓
George Washington……..194
Saint Joe's……………...….204 ✓
Fordham…………….....……274
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01-20-2020, 09:18 AM
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Luke DeCock, voter from the Raleigh paper, has UD at #7 this week. He had us 10 last week.
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01-20-2020, 09:30 AM
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Seth Davis jumps UD to 8th from 14th.
Keeps UK and Seton Hall above us, while he jumps us over Nova.
He drops Duke from 4th to 15th and Auburn from 7th to out of his poll
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01-20-2020, 10:00 AM
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01-20-2020, 10:22 AM
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^
Had UD 13th last week...
So if you assume the people that already had UD in their top 10 will continue to have them there and likely up a few spots, combined with the people moving them from the top 15 into the top 10, feels like UD's going to come in around 8th later this afternoon.
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01-20-2020, 11:08 AM
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Number five!!!!!
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01-20-2020, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79
Number five!!!!!
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In the NET. 1 nudge away from a 1 Seed!
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01-20-2020, 12:17 PM
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And we come in at 7th in AP poll:
https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeBasketballPoll
Congrats AG and team.
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01-20-2020, 12:23 PM
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General of the Air Force
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The bullseye for our opponents keeps getting bigger.
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01-20-2020, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by cj
The bullseye for our opponents keeps getting bigger.
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As does the ego of the top recruits we have interest in.
Telling their friends and family they are being recruited by a top 10 team - and then committing to a top 10 team is a big deal.
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01-20-2020, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
In the NET. 1 nudge away from a 1 Seed!
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Maybe I'm crazy, I wouldn't want the pressure of a #1 seed. 2 or 3 would be just fine!
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01-20-2020, 12:35 PM
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This is just unreal. Years ago when EA Sports made college basketball video games I would have UD in the top ten when I would play seasons but in the back of my mind I "knew" that would never happen in real life. I thought the Archie years were the golden years and we would never see such glory days again. This blows that out of the water and I am so happy to have been so wrong.
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01-20-2020, 12:38 PM
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Looking ahead this week........
……..it appears there won't be a great chance to improve this ranking this week. The teams above us, two of them have just one game and essentially all the games a have very high win% at KemPom.
Best chances for upsets in the Top 7 are San Diego State at UNLV (79%) and a strange non-con game for Baylor at a Florida (55%) team who would LOVE a statement win for their suddenly developing resume (Auburn win).
The other strongest is upset is actually UD AT Richmond, which Kempom only has at 70% for Dayton.
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01-20-2020, 12:42 PM
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After the carnage last week, I think AP voters could really benefit by a calm, upset free top 10 this week
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01-20-2020, 12:43 PM
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Bring on the 1 seed! The pundits will say we're part of the weakest field in history, which brings more chances to prove we belong!
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01-20-2020, 12:44 PM
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Also, Rutgers enters at 24, the first time they've been ranked since the 70s IIRC. Also, Ohio State still getting a decent amount of votes, perhaps AP voters think they've been gaining steam.
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01-20-2020, 12:44 PM
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01-20-2020, 12:49 PM
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Flyer Volleyball Superfan. Almost 8,000 Posts To Prove It.
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I never saw a 6-place jump this week coming. Wow. I figured we would be Top 10, but #13 to #7 is unreal.
I think it shows how respected the program has become in being able to find a way to win on a bad night, on the road. As AG said, you have these challenges along the way during a championship season.
Also happy to have won an OT game. Next up.
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01-20-2020, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
Maybe I'm crazy, I wouldn't want the pressure of a #1 seed. 2 or 3 would be just fine!
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You are crazy. I’d rather play a 15 or 16 seed than a 14.
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01-20-2020, 12:55 PM
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ALL Conference games are starting to loom LARGE.
If we weren't getting everyone's best b4 we should expect everyone's best from now on.
I haven't heard anything about those tweaked ankles on Obi and JC anyone hear anything?
Go Flyers!
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01-20-2020, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
After the carnage last week, I think AP voters could really benefit by a calm, upset free top 10 this week
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Or at least Top 7
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01-20-2020, 12:58 PM
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I’m so stoked right now! I thought we would be around 10. I still see us with two losses heading into the NCAA tournament. The nice thing is now, we can afford to take those, and still be ranked. we still have to go to Richmond twice, and Pittsburgh ones. I just don’t see us winning all three of those games. I will happily eat crow if I am wrong!
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01-20-2020, 01:00 PM
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Great jump. We may have benefited from the publicity this week over Crutcher’s incredible game winning 3 and the love for Obi. May actually thank Bilas.
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01-20-2020, 01:01 PM
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General
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Any chance the voters actually gave us credit for winning a tough game? Or just process of elimination?
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01-20-2020, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Any chance the voters actually gave us credit for winning a tough game? Or just process of elimination?
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Keep winning and eliminate some more!
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01-20-2020, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Any chance the voters actually gave us credit for winning a tough game? Or just process of elimination?
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I think they did give us credit for winning tough games - as no one jumped over us.
We landed exactly where we should have given all the loses by teams above us.
The credit was we were not leap frogged by Nova or MSU - which was a concern.
If you scroll up and look at the teams that lost - all 6 red teams dropped below us. I believe the 7 spot shows a lot of respect from both the Writers and the Coaches.
Per the person that said this puts a target on our jersey - my son said as long as it is not an X on the Jersey he does not care what this puts on our Jersey. Agreed.
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01-20-2020, 01:12 PM
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While not an AP voter, Jerry Palm explains on his latest bracket and video chats why he moved UD up to a 2 seed and Saint Louis into the last 4 in category (along with VCU) because "not all loses are damaging". I think there is a lot of respect for UD right now that keeps growing.
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01-20-2020, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Any chance the voters actually gave us credit for winning a tough game? Or just process of elimination?
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I think it's as simple as winning 2 out of 2 games, while others have lost and the fact that when you have a big man that's leading the way for Wooden award, voters don't see you as a fluke.
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01-20-2020, 01:18 PM
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All UD players should want that target on their back; it usually means they've done something worth targeting. Sure its nice to go under the radar sometimes and sneak up on people, however if you do that too often that means you've failed to actually catch them (or maintain) those instances in the past.
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01-20-2020, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Any chance the voters actually gave us credit for winning a tough game? Or just process of elimination?
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Yes and I think they gave UD more credit for losing a tough one to Colorado who until saturday was ranked..Going from 13 to 7 is enormous...
Last edited by steve; 01-20-2020 at 02:04 PM..
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01-20-2020, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
As does the ego of the top recruits we have interest in.
Telling their friends and family they are being recruited by a top 10 team - and then committing to a top 10 team is a big deal.
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I'll take a high rating all day long. UD is still going to drop a couple games, imo, whether they are 7, 10 or 20. What this does say is that you CAN be nationally recognized while playing at UD and in the A10.And the next biggest attribute is having multiple teams in the A10 also giving huge recognition to the league...
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01-20-2020, 01:50 PM
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Commander in Chief
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Wow, we are on the biggest of stages now. What an entertaining season. Everybody opponent is going to be coming after us with both guns blazing while we are riding this high.
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01-20-2020, 01:52 PM
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Sadly, the only way anyone in the league gets much recognition this year is if they beat us.
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01-20-2020, 02:04 PM
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Anybody else check out our other A10 rivals message boards. There seems to be a pattern.
Weeks before they play us: Wow, have you seen Dayton play. They are men among boys.
As game day approaches: I think we'll beat Dayton, our team is the type of team they have trouble against.
After game: Dayton got all the calls and our coach cost us the game, he needs to be fired.
Following Monday: Dayton moves to (insert ranking here). Well deserved, they are men among boys and probably will be playing in the final four.
Last edited by Smitty10; 01-20-2020 at 02:07 PM..
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01-20-2020, 02:15 PM
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I proudly admit I was off on my prediction of 11. #7 is rarified air!! The season we have been waiting 53 years for.
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01-20-2020, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by steve
Yes and I think they gave UD more credit for losing a tough one to Colorado who until saturday was ranked..Going from 13 to 7 is enormous...
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Colorado is still ranked #23 in the AP Coaches Poll.
And UD is also #7 in the USA Today poll
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Last edited by Swampy Meadows; 01-20-2020 at 02:38 PM..
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01-20-2020, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows
Colorado is still ranked #23 in the AP Coaches Poll.
And UD is also #7 in the USA Today poll
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Not sure what you mean. There is no such thing as the "AP Coaches Poll." Colorado is ranked #23 in the AP Poll and #26 in the USA Today Coaches Poll.
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01-20-2020, 04:25 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Originally Posted by jack72
I proudly admit I was off on my prediction of 11. #7 is rarified air!! The season we have been waiting 53 years for.
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I thought the same thing. I thought Nova would leap frog us. And being a Jersey boy, I thought Seton Hall and Rutgers would advance and show up in the polls, respectively, which they did. The Rutgers coach has done a great job as has Willard at Seton Hall.
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01-20-2020, 04:25 PM
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Interesting note from the AP ballots: UD's lowest placing was at #14 on two ballots, including from Dave Matter who covers Mizzou from St. Louis.
https://collegepolltracker.com/baske...on-flyers/2019
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01-20-2020, 06:09 PM
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There are often posts on Pride complaining about bias in the polls against non-P5 teams. The way we have been treated by the polls and the media this year shows otherwise.
I think there’s generally a “show me” attitude, but teams that bring the goods are aptly rewarded.
I also think with analytics in focus like they are, bias in the polls stands out like a sore thumb, which also helps suppress unfairness.
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01-20-2020, 09:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
I’m so stoked right now! I thought we would be around 10. I still see us with two losses heading into the NCAA tournament. The nice thing is now, we can afford to take those, and still be ranked. we still have to go to Richmond twice, and Pittsburgh ones. I just don’t see us winning all three of those games. I will happily eat crow if I am wrong!
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Feel the same way, though with Richmond losing their leading scorer, we should be able to beat Richmond. Duquesne will be tough, but if we win both of those games, I think our only loss the rest of the way will be to VCU. I just don't see us beating them at their place. I doubt VCU will lose more than one more game in the regular season and I bet that game won't be to us. I hope I'm wrong, but I'll be fine with 16-2 or 17-1. Just so Farts doesn't go for 30 in either game, I think this is where we'll be in March.
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01-20-2020, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
Maybe I'm crazy, I wouldn't want the pressure of a #1 seed. 2 or 3 would be just fine!
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I will take the 1 always, big time pressure goes hand in hand with winning big, so you know, there is no escaping that, you just have to get used to it. I think being a 1 seed would be very beneficial: easier path to advance, all the media hype and attention helping the program, the team wants to prove it is worthy of the seed/helps keep the team focused, etc.
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01-21-2020, 07:57 AM
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Here are the games for the top 10 this week:
1. Baylor - W vs OU 1/20, @ Florida 1/25
2. Gonzaga - vs UOP 1/25
3. Kansas - vs K-State 1/21, vs Tenn 1/25
4. SDS - vs Wyo 1/21, @ UNLV 1/26
5. Flo St. - vs ND 1/25
6. Lou - vs GA Tech 1/22, vs Clem 1/25
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs Bonnies 1/22, @ Rich 1/25
8. Duke - vs Miami 1/21
9. Nova - vs Butler 1/21, @ Prov 1/25
10. Seton Hall - vs Prov 1/22
Lot less teams ahead of us to move past (good thing) - which means not as many games for them to lose. If we win both we should keep the 7 spot - Duke vs Miami is not a win that will get them leap frogging us.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-21-2020, 08:38 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Duke vs Miami is not a win that will get them leap frogging us.
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No, but a Duke loss might!!
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Mad Props to cj For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-21-2020, 09:32 AM
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Really interesting breakdown of the AP poll and the Vegas odds. They combine them into a super poll and Dayton fares really well.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-best-co...trange-1483116
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01-21-2020, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Here are the games for the top 10 this week:
1. Baylor - W vs OU 1/20, @ Florida 1/25
2. Gonzaga - vs UOP 1/25
3. Kansas - vs K-State 1/21, vs Tenn 1/25
4. SDS - vs Wyo 1/21, @ UNLV 1/26
5. Flo St. - vs ND 1/25
6. Lou - vs GA Tech 1/22, vs Clem 1/25
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs Bonnies 1/22, @ Rich 1/25
8. Duke - vs Miami 1/21
9. Nova - vs Butler 1/21, @ Prov 1/25
10. Seton Hall - vs Prov 1/22
Lot less teams ahead of us to move past (good thing) - which means not as many games for them to lose. If we win both we should keep the 7 spot - Duke vs Miami is not a win that will get them leap frogging us.
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It's bizarre to me that we are now only focusing on the top 10...rather than 25 and higher.
Pinch me please!
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Mad Props to UDTradition For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-21-2020, 09:46 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by UDTradition
It's bizarre to me that we are now only focusing on the top 10...rather than 25 and higher.
Pinch me please!
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#MeToo
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01-21-2020, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
You are crazy. I’d rather play a 15 or 16 seed than a 14.
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Totally agree. Always want the higher seed. Odds are always in your favor with the higher seed. UVA losing to UMBC was a crazy scenario and likely will not happen anytime soon where a 1 loses to a 16.
I do remember that 4 seed loss we had years ago to Tulsa (13 seed). That sucked.
Always want the higher seed, though. Once you get to a 5 seed and lower (usually), it is all about matchups at that point.
Go Flyers!
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01-21-2020, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Here is how the Top 15 did the past week:
1. Zags - W - 1/16, W vs. BYU 1/18 - 2 W's Staying put.
2. Baylor - W - 1/15, W @ Ok St 1/18 - 2 W's staying put.
3. Duke - L - 1/14, L vs #11 Lou 1/18 - 2 L's dropping out of top 10
4. Auburn - L 1/15, L @ Florida 1/18 - 2 L's dropping out of top 10
5. Butler - L 1/15, L @ Depaul 1/18 - 2 L's dropping out of top 10
6. KU - W 1/14 , W @ Texas 1/18 - 2 W's Moving up
7. SDS - W 1/14, W vs Nevad 1/18 - 2 W's Moving up
8. Oregon - L 1/16, W @ Wash 1/18 - 1 W / 1 L - Dropping a couple spots
9. Flo St. - W 1/15, W @ Miami 1/18 - 2 W's Moving up.
10. Kentucky - L 1/15, W @Ark 1/18 - 1 W / 1 L - Might drop 1 or 2 spots
11. Lou - W 1/14, W @ Duke 1/18 - 2 W's - Moving up to Top 5
12. WV - W 1/14, L @ K-State 1/18 - 1 W / 1 L - will drop a couple spots
13. UD - W 1/14, W 1/17 - 2 W's - Moving up.
14. Nova - W 1/14, W 1/18 - 2 W's - Moving up
15. Mich St. - W 1/17 - 1 W - Moving up
Based on the above - Moving into Number 7 spot seems the most likely. If there is bias for Nova or MS - we could wind up 8th or 9th. But should not be any worse than 9th. Still our 2 wins (home / road) were better then Nova's 2 home wins or MS one home win. In any case looks like we will be in the top 10 for the first time since most on this board were born.
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Great presentation...thanks
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01-21-2020, 06:38 PM
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I feel that we really need to do everything we can to get at least one of Jordy, Matos, or Dwayne established as a predictable and reliable cog in the machine.
I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I'd trade a 2 seed for a 4 seed if it meant the above could come to pass. We go in to the tourney with only 6 reliable players, and some of what we have seen under pressure from the others, much more has to fall just right regardless of 1 easier game than it does if we have 7-8 at our disposable to deal with all the obstacles that come down the path.
I hope AG uses these guys as much as possible over the remaining 14 - 16 games to provide every chance for them to find their role and be comfortable and confident in that. Even it if means we lose an extra game or two. It will only make us that much harder to beat come tourney time.
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01-21-2020, 07:13 PM
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Jordy could be a difference maker against physical teams, like the ones we've struggled to beat all season. I would love to see him get more PT to see if he can develop into a credible inside presence.
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01-21-2020, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
I feel that we really need to do everything we can to get at least one of Jordy, Matos, or Dwayne established as a predictable and reliable cog in the machine.
I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I'd trade a 2 seed for a 4 seed if it meant the above could come to pass. We go in to the tourney with only 6 reliable players, and some of what we have seen under pressure from the others, much more has to fall just right regardless of 1 easier game than it does if we have 7-8 at our disposable to deal with all the obstacles that come down the path.
I hope AG uses these guys as much as possible over the remaining 14 - 16 games to provide every chance for them to find their role and be comfortable and confident in that. Even it if means we lose an extra game or two. It will only make us that much harder to beat come tourney time.
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I’m not to the point of willing to trade wins for experience but I share your concern that AG needs to try to get one or two of the 7-9 members of the rotation much more involved. I think it was the St. Joseph game where Obi had four fouls and AG kept him out well past the four minute mark in a (relatively) close game. That was good to see.
Of the three, I see the most upside from Jordy—based on his sheer size. I also think Dwayne plays good D...he just needs to relax and concern himself with playing his role. In that regard, he’s not much different than Rodney (in terms of letting the game come to him-not expected production).
Chase Johnson is sorely missed. I don’t think a deep run is possible without something more from this group. Injuries, fouls, matchups, and fatigue all call for more depth.
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01-22-2020, 09:16 AM
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Major
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Here are the games for the top 10 this week:
1. Baylor - W vs OU 1/20, @ Florida 1/25
2. Gonzaga - vs UOP 1/25
3. Kansas - W vs K-State 1/21, vs Tenn 1/25
4. SDS - W vs Wyo 1/21, @ UNLV 1/26
5. Flo St. - vs ND 1/25
6. Lou - vs GA Tech 1/22, vs Clem 1/25
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs Bonnies 1/22, @ Rich 1/25
8. Duke - W vs Miami 1/21 - 1 W Moving up or staying put.
9. Nova - W vs Butler 1/21, @ Prov 1/25
10. Seton Hall - vs Prov 1/22
The KU / K-State Brawl will result in suspensions - and that could impact the Tenn game Saturday.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Mad Props to podcast411 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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01-22-2020, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
……..it appears there won't be a great chance to improve this ranking this week. The teams above us, two of them have just one game and essentially all the games a have very high win% at KemPom.
Best chances for upsets in the Top 7 are San Diego State at UNLV (79%) and a strange non-con game for Baylor at a Florida (55%) team who would LOVE a statement win for their suddenly developing resume (Auburn win).
The other strongest is upset is actually UD AT Richmond, which Kempom only has at 70% for Dayton.
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Here are the games for the top 10 this week:
1. Baylor - W vs OU 1/20, @ Florida 1/25
2. Gonzaga - vs UOP 1/25
3. Kansas - W vs K-State 1/21, vs Tenn 1/25
4. SDS - W vs Wyo 1/21, @ UNLV 1/26
5. Flo St. - vs ND 1/25
6. Lou - vs GA Tech 1/22, vs Clem 1/25
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs Bonnies 1/22, @ Rich 1/25
8. Duke - W vs Miami 1/21 - 1 W Moving up or staying put.
9. Nova - W vs Butler 1/21, @ Prov 1/25
10. Seton Hall - vs Prov 1/22
The KU / K-State Brawl will result in suspensions - and that could impact the Tenn game Saturday.
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Agree, we could go 2-0 this week and still be stuck at #7 on Monday.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-22-2020, 09:34 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by ud2
Agree, we could go 2-0 this week and still be stuck at #7 on Monday.
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Even possible Duke and/or Nova jumps us.
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01-22-2020, 09:37 AM
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If Virginia Tech somehow knock off Louisville, that would be amazing! That would basically all but guarantee that win to be a quad one win. not to mention, it could bump us up to sixth. That’s outside of whatever shenanigans may come from suspensions to Kansas.
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01-22-2020, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Agree, we could go 2-0 this week and still be stuck at #7 on Monday.
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Did anyone ever think we could be disappointed some day by being stuck at #7 in the rankings???
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01-22-2020, 01:41 PM
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Commander in Chief
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Originally Posted by ud2
Agree, we could go 2-0 this week and still be stuck at #7 on Monday.
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At this point, there isn't much higher that we can go. Even if we win out, we will flutter around in the top ten zone. Only losses will move us significantly now. I'm not complaining.
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01-22-2020, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
At this point, there isn't much higher that we can go. Even if we win out, we will flutter around in the top ten zone. Only losses will move us significantly now. I'm not complaining.
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What do you mean we can not go any higher? If we win out, there is a very real possibility we will be #1.
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01-22-2020, 03:57 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Originally Posted by ud2
What do you mean we can not go any higher? If we win out, there is a very real possibility we will be #1.
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We won't be #1 if we win out. Gonzaga has a much easier schedule the rest of the season. They are more likely to win out than us.
Not sure what competition is left for San Diego St. The Mountain West seems down this year.
Others above us could lose, but a big win by someone just behind us and they vault ahead of us.
We could move up 2 spots, but we are fairly ranked right now and if we end up at 5-7 - even winning out - I won't complain..
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01-22-2020, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer
We won't be #1 if we win out. Gonzaga has a much easier schedule the rest of the season. They are more likely to win out than us.
Not sure what competition is left for San Diego St. The Mountain West seems down this year.
Others above us could lose, but a big win by someone just behind us and they vault ahead of us.
We could move up 2 spots, but we are fairly ranked right now and if we end up at 5-7 - even winning out - I won't complain..
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If we win out, depending on what those in front of us at the time do, we could be #1.
Kansas, SDSU, and Gonzaga per Kenpom are projected to win out, Louisville, Baylor, and FSU are projected to lose at least once.
Our sos is projected to be #45, that is the 3rd best sos we have had since 1993-1994, so the schedule this year is working out well so far.
Saint Joe had a sos of 46 in 2003-2004, they had 4 top 50 wins, and they were given the top ranking, but of course they were undefeated heading into the A10T.
http://realtimerpi.com/2003-2004/rpi_119_Men.html
Last edited by ud2; 01-22-2020 at 04:23 PM..
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01-22-2020, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
What do you mean we can not go any higher? If we win out, there is a very real possibility we will be #1.
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I said we can't go much higher. There are six possible spots above us and 350+ spots below us. I'm not saying that we couldn't drift towards number one if we keep winning, but losses will move us down quickly and significantly.
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01-22-2020, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer
We won't be #1 if we win out. Gonzaga has a much easier schedule the rest of the season. They are more likely to win out than us.
Not sure what competition is left for San Diego St. The Mountain West seems down this year.
Others above us could lose, but a big win by someone just behind us and they vault ahead of us.
We could move up 2 spots, but we are fairly ranked right now and if we end up at 5-7 - even winning out - I won't complain..
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Yes....and no. The Zags have a higher probability of running the table than the Flyers. However, the Zags have (2) games on their schedule that rate as higher upset probability than any other Flyers game - @St. Mary's (59% win probability) @BYU (58% win probability). The Flyers lowest win % is 62% at VCU and the next lowest is 70%.
It all seems a little premature, even as fans who take a great deal of latitude in "pie in the sky", perfect world projections, since we still have 13 regular season games left. I may start to speculate if we get through January unscathed.
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01-23-2020, 10:21 AM
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Here are the games for the top 10 this week:
1. Baylor - W vs OU 1/20, @ Florida 1/25
2. Gonzaga - vs UOP 1/25
3. Kansas - W vs K-State 1/21, vs Tenn 1/25
4. SDS - W vs Wyo 1/21, @ UNLV 1/26
5. Flo St. - vs ND 1/25
6. Lou - W vs GA Tech 1/22, vs Clem 1/25
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - W vs Bonnies 1/22, @ Rich 1/25
8. Duke - W vs Miami 1/21 - 1 W Moving up or staying put.
9. Nova - W vs Butler 1/21, @ Prov 1/25
10. Seton Hall - W vs Prov 1/22 - 1 W - Either staying put or moving up
So far this week - The Top 10 are winning all their games. Not many opportunities for us to move up. A loss by Baylor would not move them down much - Maybe the other 5 if any of them lose we would move up one slot - this all assumes we take care of business in Richmond. Sadly none of those games until the weekend. Go and watch Picard tonight.
Last edited by podcast411; 01-23-2020 at 10:28 AM..
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01-23-2020, 12:27 PM
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According to KenPom:
* 11% chance of winning out the regular season
* 29% chance of having exactly one loss in the regular season
* 54% Chance of winning our tournament
* 6% chance of winning out season and tournament
If we win out the season and the A10 tournament(~1/20 chance) then there is a very good chance we are #1 in the country, because the chance of any other team winning out their season and tournament is similarly as low.
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01-23-2020, 01:32 PM
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Just for comparison I ran the numbers for Gonzaga winning out their season:
* 15% Chance of winning out the regular season
* 61% chance of winning the WCC tournament (#1 seed only plays 2 games)
* 9% Chance of winning out the season plus tournament
So if we win out, the chance that Gonzaga will win out too is less than 9/100. But the chance of us winning out is about 6/100. So neither thing will probably happen.
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01-23-2020, 02:49 PM
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Flyer national statistical rankings for games through last night:
assist/turnover ratio - 7th - 1.45
assists per game - 2nd (19.052) - MSU #1 at 19.055)
field goal percentage - #1 - 52.5%
scoring margin - 4th - +17
scoring offense - 4th - 83.0
3-point field goal percentage - 33rd - 37.4%
total assists - 2nd - 362 - Gonzaga #1 at 382 on 2 more games
won/lost percentage - 5th - 17-2
maybe the most impressive statistic:
2-point field goal percentage- 62.7% - 5 percentage points better than #2
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01-23-2020, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69
Flyer national statistical rankings for games through last night:
assist/turnover ratio - 7th - 1.45
assists per game - 2nd (19.052) - MSU #1 at 19.055)
field goal percentage - #1 - 52.5%
scoring margin - 4th - +17
scoring offense - 4th - 83.0
3-point field goal percentage - 33rd - 37.4%
total assists - 2nd - 362 - Gonzaga #1 at 382 on 2 more games
won/lost percentage - 5th - 17-2
maybe the most impressive statistic:
2-point field goal percentage- 62.7% - 5 percentage points better than #2
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You know your a numbers geek and you have watched too much basketball when your rooting for MSU tonight to have 18 or fewer assists just to get our Flyers back to #1 in the country in assists per game average.
I just typed my symptoms into WebMD and it says I have Figgienucletitusosis
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01-23-2020, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
You know your a numbers geek and you have watched too much basketball when your rooting for MSU tonight to have 18 or fewer assists just to get our Flyers back to #1 in the country in assists per game average.
I just typed my symptoms into WebMD and it says I have Figgienucletitusosis
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MSU had 13, Flyers top dog.
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01-24-2020, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
I just typed my symptoms into WebMD and it says I have Figgienucletitusosis
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Good News, I have a cure, a fistful of beers and some pizza at least twice a week. If you're wife objects, just tell here I once stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.
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01-25-2020, 10:16 PM
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As of todays win at Richmond, (from KenPom)
* 18% chance of winning out the regular season
* 36% chance of having exactly one loss in the regular season
* 55% Chance of winning our tournament
* 10% chance of winning out season and tournament
Still unlikely, but getting better...
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01-25-2020, 11:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
As of todays win at Richmond, (from KenPom)
* 18% chance of winning out the regular season
* 36% chance of having exactly one loss in the regular season
* 55% Chance of winning our tournament
* 10% chance of winning out season and tournament
Still unlikely, but getting better...
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List our chances of winning each gamer the rest of the season
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01-26-2020, 12:15 AM
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Here are the games for the top 10 this week:
1. Baylor - W vs OU 1/20, W @ Florida 1/25 - 2 W's - Staying Put
2. Gonzaga - W vs UOP 1/25 - 1 W - Staying Put
3. Kansas - W vs K-State 1/21, W vs Tenn 1/25 - 2 W's - Staying Put
4. SDS - W vs Wyo 1/21, @ UNLV 1/26
5. Flo St. - W vs ND 1/25 - 1 W - Likely Staying Put
6. Lou - W vs GA Tech 1/22, W vs Clem 1/25 - 2 W's - Likely Staying Put
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - W vs Bonnies 1/22, W @ Rich 1/25 - 2 W's - Likely Staying Put
8. Duke - W vs Miami 1/21 - 1 W Likely staying put.
9. Nova - W vs Butler 1/21, W @ Prov 1/25 - 2 W's - Likely Staying Put
10. Seton Hall - W vs Prov 1/22 - 1 W - Likely staying put
This week was as opposite of the previous week as it could get. No upsets in the top 10 with one game left to go - SDS tomorrow - if they win - then All Top 10 teams will have won all their games for the week - and likely the top 10 order will not change for anyone. Which means Monday's rankings for the most part will be the same as the current weeks rankings.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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01-26-2020, 01:09 AM
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The calculated chance to win each game left in the regular season. The numbers are calculated from the publicly available KenPom page about an hour after the end of the Flyers - Spiders game.
@ Duquesne 78%
Fordham 99%
SLU 92%
URI 88%
@ Umass 92%
@Vcu 64%
Duquesne 93%
@GMU 88%
Davidson 92%
@URI 68%
GW 98%
Win All 18%
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01-26-2020, 01:15 AM
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Those winning odds at home vs SLU and URI are....preposterous. Not buying it. We may be favorites, perhaps solid favorites, but those odds are almost guarantees. Especially considering those two foes present the most physically-opposing playing style which are the two least-advantageous matchups for our own style and personnel.
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"Yeah....220, 221, whatever it takes." - Jack Butler (Mr. Mom)
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01-26-2020, 01:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
Those winning odds at home vs SLU and URI are....preposterous. Not buying it. We may be favorites, perhaps solid favorites, but those odds are almost guarantees. Especially considering those two foes present the most physically-opposing playing style which are the two least-advantageous matchups for our own style and personnel.
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I agree, they look large. The swing between home and away for KenPom is 6.5 points. That is a large mountain to climb, when you are starting from a hole.
There is a lot of information that is not in KenPom that can really matter. If you could reliably identify games where KenPom or Sagarin are preposterous, there is a large amount of money that can come your way from the book makers.
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01-26-2020, 08:08 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Chris R
Those winning odds at home vs SLU and URI are....preposterous. Not buying it. We may be favorites, perhaps solid favorites, but those odds are almost guarantees. Especially considering those two foes present the most physically-opposing playing style which are the two least-advantageous matchups for our own style and personnel.
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We are beating teams at home by an average of 23 points. I believe that’s why you are seeing these odds.
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