|
|
01-20-2020, 03:40 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,112
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,751 Times in 793 Posts
|
|
What is the value of 1 shot
I can’t help but think what would have happened in the polls if Jalen’s shot does not fall. At best we stay at 13. More then likely we fall 1-4 spots.
It’s hard for me to accept that we are considered better or worse than up to 7 teams based on 1 shot. Just shows how important every opportunity is for a school like UD. Such a small margin for error even in an historic year. Makes me think back to the elite 8 run that likely never happens if KP to KD to JS never happened (or the KD travel we called ).
12 teams in Big10 could get in and 6-7 are probably already nearly locks. Every year probably 6-8 deserving schools don’t get in because 1 or shots go the wrong way. This needs to be fixed.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Marysville Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 03:49 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,076
Thanks: 3,446
Thanked 4,695 Times in 2,512 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
I can’t help but think what would have happened in the polls if Jalen’s shot does not fall. At best we stay at 13. More then likely we fall 1-4 spots.
It’s hard for me to accept that we are considered better or worse than up to 7 teams based on 1 shot. Just shows how important every opportunity is for a school like UD. Such a small margin for error even in an historic year. Makes me think back to the elite 8 run that likely never happens if KP to KD to JS never happened (or the KD travel we called ).
12 teams in Big10 could get in and 6-7 are probably already nearly locks. Every year probably 6-8 deserving schools don’t get in because 1 or shots go the wrong way. This needs to be fixed.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
Actually, it has been fixed to an extent. That’s why they now consider analytics such as KenPom which show how well you have played, even in a close loss.
|
01-20-2020, 03:50 PM
|
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,642
Thanks: 1,559
Thanked 4,578 Times in 2,405 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
I can’t help but think what would have happened in the polls if Jalen’s shot does not fall. At best we stay at 13. More then likely we fall 1-4 spots.
It’s hard for me to accept that we are considered better or worse than up to 7 teams based on 1 shot. Just shows how important every opportunity is for a school like UD. Such a small margin for error even in an historic year. Makes me think back to the elite 8 run that likely never happens if KP to KD to JS never happened (or the KD travel we called ).
12 teams in Big10 could get in and 6-7 are probably already nearly locks. Every year probably 6-8 deserving schools don’t get in because 1 or shots go the wrong way. This needs to be fixed.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
If both Jalen against SLU and Schwartz against us, don't go in, we're probably still ranked 7th. If Schwartz' shot doesn't fall but Jalen's still does, we're probably 2nd to 4th. If Jalen's doesn't fall, but Schwartz' does, we are looking at probably 17th or so. So while Jalen's shot looks to be about 10 spots in the rankings, the climb from 7th to say 3rd is much more difficult and that's what Schwartz' shot kept from us.
|
Mad Props to Smitty10 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 03:56 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,740
Thanks: 2,230
Thanked 2,426 Times in 827 Posts
|
|
Another way to look at this: Two points, one each in regulation in the Kansas and Colorado games, eliminates two OT losses and likely has an 18-0 Dayton team ranked No. 1.
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to The Fly For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 04:03 PM
|
Just off the Jet
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 11
Thanks: 14
Thanked 14 Times in 2 Posts
|
|
Look at the other side, what happens if Schwartz misses the three at the end of the Colorado game? I think we're sitting 4th, maybe higher?
As a Flyer fan, I don't think I have a historical frame of reference for what should separate #5 from #15 vs. NCAA from NIT, but I'm sure enjoying the new opportunity to consider it first hand.
|
01-20-2020, 04:09 PM
|
Commander in Chief
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 14,352
Thanks: 4,403
Thanked 10,615 Times in 5,096 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by The Fly
Another way to look at this: Two points, one each in regulation in the Kansas and Colorado games, eliminates two OT losses and likely has an 18-0 Dayton team ranked No. 1.
|
Haha. That is crazy to think about. It's a great season, but there is not a lot of difference between the top 25 teams this year IMO. I look at those teams, and almost any of them are capable of knocking off any of the others on any given night. It's intriguing because there is so much parity this year.
|
Mad Props to Fudd For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 04:10 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,112
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,751 Times in 793 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by The Fly
Another way to look at this: Two points, one each in regulation in the Kansas and Colorado games, eliminates two OT losses and likely has an 18-0 Dayton team ranked No. 1.
|
I was thinking of that even while at 13. Should 2 pts over 2 games put 12 teams ahead of us.
It’s not as big deal when we are ranked but is when you are in the last 4 in segmentation. How many years have we been just on the outside or just sneaked in based on just a handful of shots.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
01-20-2020, 04:12 PM
|
|
Lieutenant General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Vernon, NJ
Posts: 4,670
Thanks: 1,893
Thanked 1,197 Times in 584 Posts
|
|
Let's enjoy it! I remember the last time we were ranked this high, December 1967 (6th I believe), I was freshman at UD. There are a good number of games yet to be played. Let's come out with the "Eye of the Tiger". Take one game at a time and remember it is ALWAYS a great day to be a Flyer! This sure feels good! It's about time!
|
01-20-2020, 04:50 PM
|
|
Lieutenant General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Vernon, NJ
Posts: 4,670
Thanks: 1,893
Thanked 1,197 Times in 584 Posts
|
|
We can go crazy thinking about "what if"
|
01-20-2020, 05:05 PM
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 715
Thanks: 244
Thanked 824 Times in 355 Posts
|
|
What if we go 16-2 and all the shots drop the way they did - and we get ranked 7th. Wow - think if someone posted on here two years ago today that on Jan 20th 2020 we would be ranked in the top 10. They would have been laughed off the board.
The shots dropped as they did - we are not 1st or 17th - we are 7th - and that is still in my mind a heck of a dream land we are currently living in.
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to podcast411 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 05:27 PM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,802
Thanks: 528
Thanked 1,859 Times in 720 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by TA111
Actually, it has been fixed to an extent. That’s why they now consider analytics such as KenPom which show how well you have played, even in a close loss.
|
Great post; stole my thunder.
If that shot doesn't go in, Dayton's adjusted offensive efficiency goes from approximately 118.5 points per 100 possessions (good for 2nd in D1) to approximately 118.3 points per 100 possessions (still good for 2nd in D1). They're still a great offensive team.
That is just one of the millions of examples of how a favorable bounce, or whistle, or matchup can affect your fortunes so greatly. The key is to always be great, so eventually enough of those bounces, whistles, and matchups go your way.
|
01-20-2020, 05:28 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,112
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,751 Times in 793 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by podcast411
What if we go 16-2 and all the shots drop the way they did - and we get ranked 7th. Wow - think if someone posted on here two years ago today that on Jan 20th 2020 we would be ranked in the top 10. They would have been laughed off the board.
The shots dropped as they did - we are not 1st or 17th - we are 7th - and that is still in my mind a heck of a dream land we are currently living in.
|
My intent wasn't to play what if we won 3 less or 2 more …. And I am fully enjoying this ride every step of the way and will relish this year no matter what happens from here on out.
My commentary is more about how really difficult it is for a team like UD to make the tourney in any given year. The Crutcher shot and the possible outcome if it hadn't gone in just made it clearer to me how little room for 'error' there is each season.
That makes me appreciate what this team and other teams in the past have done regardless of the tourney they may have played in.
|
01-20-2020, 05:47 PM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,802
Thanks: 528
Thanked 1,859 Times in 720 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
My commentary is more about how really difficult it is for a team like UD to make the tourney in any given year.
|
It really isn't. Win 24, preferably 25, games and you're in playing UD's schedule. You've got 32-34 tries. UD has done it now (soon to be) 5 out of the last 7 years and frankly, that's not good enough in my opinion. It should be 6/7 or maybe even 9/10.
|
01-20-2020, 06:23 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,344
Thanks: 469
Thanked 1,629 Times in 765 Posts
|
|
What if there was a red light that prevented Jalen Crutcher's future father from making it on time to his blind date with his future mother?
No Crutcher. No game winner.
This can go on and on.
We are #7 and let's leave it at that.
|
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to CoffeeCan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 06:34 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 2,112
Thanks: 954
Thanked 1,751 Times in 793 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by sheg
It really isn't. Win 24, preferably 25, games and you're in playing UD's schedule. You've got 32-34 tries. UD has done it now (soon to be) 5 out of the last 7 years and frankly, that's not good enough in my opinion. It should be 6/7 or maybe even 9/10.
|
I disagree with both premises.
#1 - It isn't easy for a school like UD to just win 24-25 every year especially given the newer scheduling model where cupcakes are fewer and farther between and more neutral site games.
#2 - OSU tourney appearances - Huge athletic budget - Conference affiliation advantage
Since 1940 - OSU, one of the better BB programs in the Big10, has only made the NCAA 5 of 7 multiple times within a 15 year period between 05-06 and 18-19 where they made it 11 out of 15 years largely due to 1 stretch of 7 straight years.
OSU has done 9/10 - your expectation for UD - 1 time in an 80 year span.
Most years OSU can win 18 games and get in comfortably. Most years UD must win 23 games to get a sniff. One missed shot for UD could make the difference. Not so much for the OSUs of the world.
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Marysville Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 06:42 PM
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: NJ
Posts: 625
Thanks: 759
Thanked 407 Times in 203 Posts
|
|
This is like being a nerd and dating the prom queen then scoring...
Of course scoring the winning point...not what all of you were thinking or hoping for.
Go Flyers...life is good!
|
01-20-2020, 06:46 PM
|
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 8,056
Thanks: 8,829
Thanked 8,589 Times in 3,714 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by UDTradition
This is like being a nerd and dating the prom queen then scoring...
!
|
Why do we need another thread about Rollo?
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to ClaytonFlyerFan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 07:06 PM
|
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Shiloh, OH
Posts: 8,453
Thanks: 2,350
Thanked 5,039 Times in 2,686 Posts
|
|
What is the value of 1 shot? There are many answers, and many of those consist of a name and a number:
-Ed Young 1984
-Jordan Sibert 2013
-Vee Sanford 2014
-Jordan Sibert 2015
If any of those 4 shots doesn’t fall, we either don’t make the NCAAT or we don’t advance in it. When you live where we live (outside the P5), every shot in every close game is the difference between being in The Dance and watching it on TV. That’s the value of 1 shot.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to T-Bone 84 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 08:41 PM
|
Lieutenant General
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 4,129
Thanks: 1,958
Thanked 2,464 Times in 1,288 Posts
|
|
I believe the shot made against OSU was the springboard for all that happened since. Lots of exposure with the deep run, repeat NCAA's, Archie gets his dream job, We get AG, Wright goes to Colorado, we get Jalen, and Obi, now we are top 10. Not cause and effect, but that shot changed things at UD. We got a lifer with AG. Who would have guessed we would be where we are? won't be like this every year but this is the year fans have been waiting for for decades.
|
Mad Props to UD62 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 09:10 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,556
Thanks: 6,799
Thanked 6,169 Times in 4,199 Posts
|
|
1 seeds lose to 8 or 9 seeds in the second round sometimes, there is not a huge difference sometimes between the top of the heap and teams near the bottom of the at-large bid heap. Every game is important.
Last edited by ud2; 01-20-2020 at 09:13 PM..
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|